Gemma Frisius Lecture 2011
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Transcript of Gemma Frisius Lecture 2011
(CC) 2011 vantill (at) gmail.com
Ir. Jaap van Till, prof. emeritusTelecommunication and Networking
TU Delft, NLHAN University of Applied Sciences, NL
University of Kaunas, LITUniversity of Indonesia, Jakarta, IND
University of Kumasi, GHN
Gemma Frisius Lecture 2011 Leeuwarden, Friesland, Monday June 20 2011
15.30 – 16.00
In Praise of Dis-Obediencehttp://www.gemmafrisius.nl/
The question is no longer ‘what PPL can do with ICT’but ‘what frequent and intensive networking
does to (groups of) people’
Version 5
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In Praise of Disobedience
Goei Midje !!!
• Lof der Ongehoorzaamheid : Bottom up P2P Innovations• Summary see www.gemmafrisius.nl/
• 5 billion (smart) phones and 2 billion laptops with Internet• 4 hours a day use, digital natives, social media: engagement
• Effects: Transparency, changing roles, footloose from anchors?• New possibilities in Time and Place• Social-, society effects, Awakening??
• I am not a promotor or rebel but just tell you what I see.
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In Praise of Disobedience
Napoleon’s army and bureaucracy
Command &Control Information
SimpleLinearStatic
Networked P2P Cooperation Creative Construction
Coordination Hierachies and Authorities less relevant Contributions that WORKCooperation
Complex, non-linear, dynamic Now with Network Technolgy We Can !
Value is in the Link / RelationValue is in the centre/node, authority
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In Praise of Disobedience
Network Technology removes obstacles (Liebig’s Law ) Something changed !! see Shirky [8]
I GovernancePR, DecisionsBroadcasting MediaNewspapers, TVAdvertisingPropagandaSpin Doctors [20]Media celebs
II Democracy and TelecommunicationDialogue, in panels on TVReferendum onlineE-democracyWebsite input, reactionsEmail
Diversity of ViewsMajority Rule with respect for minority
III SynthecracyCombination ofThings that Work Compl CooperationMSN,BloggingTribesSynthesisTwitterYoutube
Synergy, Emergent BehaviourSurprises, Value creation
Top down P2P lateral, bottom up
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In Praise of Disobedience
Why do people contribute in networks of volunteers?
• Several surveys of drivers of young people all over the world,
Their ambition is:
Individual recognition & belong inside a tribe
Self esteem Appreciation from group
Stick out as a Brand Valuable effective contributions, skill
“ Eigenwaarde “ “ Waardering “
internal: specialty external: relations connections
Selfish & general interest
Graves Value Model: staircase / upwards spiral
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In Praise of Disobedience
Driver: changes in the leading structural principle
from functional- business process- to units/networking-organizations
Goods
Information
Network of small businessesand value chains of units
Network
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In Praise of Disobedience
The FORCE of COOPERATION by P2Peerialists
DRIVERS BEHIND the IMPACT OF INTERNET & TELECOM : Networking Effects
1. Broadcasting of info: Value ~ grows with number of listeners, viewers N Sarnoff’s Law (value for the broadcaster/ advertiser/ spindoctor) 1 + 1 + 1 + 1 + 1 + ……….(N) 2. Communication V ~ N2 Metcalfe’s Law N + N + N + N + N ……….(N) V~ N Log N Odlyzko -Tilly’s Law 3. Group Membership V ~ 2N Reed’s Law 2 * 2 * 2 * 2 * 2 * 2 ……….(N) (+ Multi Tribe Membership by networking )
4. Connected people working together V ~ N ! Van Till’s Law of Synthecracy Networking
Upper bound of possible combinations of contributions N ! = N * N-1 * N-2 * …..* 2 * 1 (N) Valuecreation by synthesis grows multiplicative (Delen = vermenigvuldigen)
Total space of cooperation = number of configurations in time/space when each unique and diverse individual contributes and shares resources and knowledge. [14]
Examples: teams, communities of practice, multiuser games, simulation Grids, virtual labs Mashup Team, Flock, Herd, Evolution by flexible learning and Group Selection [9,10]
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In Praise of Disobedience
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In Praise of Disobedience
Monument for the Angels of Iran-viewing from different angles – Yes, we can Help Eachother !! August 2009, JvT
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In Praise of Disobedience
Cooperative NETWORK i.e. WAVE: can scale !Synergy ENERGY !!
Different angles!
The Telescope Metaphor: a better picture for ALL by Synthesis
< distance >
Max. Size NDoes not scale
Issues:
- Simple- Linear- Static
Issues:
- Complex- Non linear- Dynamic
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In Praise of Disobedience
The Telescope Metaphor: a better picture for ALL by network sharing of contributions
Different angles !b. Resolution ~ < distance > contrast
Array
Grid IT CAN SCALE UP !!Clusters
a. Sensitivity ~ teledensity N*N
CORRELATION N ! Combinations
FFT NETWORK “network LensesTechnology
It can coordinate, inform, self organise
Global Brain 2012
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In Praise of Disobedience
The Trias Internetica: clustering of roles in the NetTech Age [ van Till 1988, version March 31 2008]
CIVIL SOCIETY empowered Civiliansvolunteers Freedom of Choice, users
microtransactions<Douglass North>virtual communities <Maslov ++>distant friend links, P2P, complexity horizontal value chains, shareSynthesis Synergy, distr. models * open source softw. dev. * ISOC IETF, organic growth * mashups, self org netw’s
general public Interest
STATE Governments Institutions
(unipolar extreme: bureacratic controlaholicism)
Reliability and Equality in treatment by Law
MKT Businesses Enterprises The power of EBITDA Risk/ Reward vent. Partnerships Brotherhoods
(unipolar extreme: dominant monopolies)
The power of ideas and know how
The power of position
(unipolar extreme:selfcentered, intolerance,isolation)
[ Separation of State Powers (Montesquieu)]
executive
legislative judiciary
Synthecracy
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In Praise of Disobedience
After the Arab SpringUprisings in Tunesia,Egypt, Libya, Jemen,Syria, and Iran
Protests on SquaresIn Europe June 19, 2011 #globalrevolution Twitter
Protestors are fed up with stagnant And conservative regimes,Politicians and bankers.Want change and new Bottom up Enterprises: Phyles (see P2P Foundation)Synthecracy shows itself !
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In Praise of Disobedience
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In Praise of Disobedience
4 day old bacteria colony of “Paenibacillus vortex” [5] consisting of 100 x 6 x 10 ^ 9 cooperating bacteriaIts members have genes associated with social functions like: communicating together, processingenvironmental information and to synthesize chemicals for external use.
Evolution in nature depends not only on mutation and competition but also on COOPERATION [4]and group selection !!
Diameter = 8 cm
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In Praise of Disobedience
What lies ahead?• Synthecratic bottom up P2P innovation & fast group learning with the help of network bonds. Creating a very strong and fast responding and cooperating fabric of small units.
Such units should consist of a strong combination of complementary skilled• Homo Sapiens - knowledge• Homo Faber – high skill to make things work• Homo Ludens –Playful Imagination• Homo Disobediens – Daring & exploring black swans
Examples:
- Friesland: Freya de Vries (13) is active online to design banners for Japanese Manga interest group. Specialty: Kitsunes (trans-national)
- Group of young scientists KNAW promote the importance of fundamental research in COMBINATIONS of different practical fields ( trans-sector, trans-discipline, trans- institute)
- Fablabs: emergent network of garage size industries with low cost very powerful machines: TNC, 3D printers, Arduino PLC electronics.
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In Praise of Disobedience
Conclusion:
After more (elite democracy) or less (mkt creative destruction) successful versions of Aristocracy, Meritocracy, Media-Consumocracy we will have
P2P Synthecracy by massive use of network technology to create value.Bottom up and self organized across fences and boundaries using social network and other ICT tools that bind people together.
• Authorities and hierarcies are no longer very relevant. Thing that work are.
• Use the creative construction networking force of sharing & combining idea’s/ knowledge/ solutions that have shown to be working = Synthecracy. What unique specialised skill can you contribute ??
Around 2012 we will enter the age of global network synergy We wish you good connections !
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References
[1] van Till, ‘Sociale media brengen nieuw systeem’, Netkwesties 6 februari 2011, http://www.netkwesties.nl/346/sociale-media-brengen-nieuw-systeem.htm English language version: ’Regime Change in the ‘Arab Spring’ is a System Change’
http://bit.ly/fa4tjo[2] Wadah Khanfar, director general of Al Jazeera, TED lecture: http://goo.gl/AR2Ty
March 2011 “giving the people there back their self confidence and dignity”.[3] “The man who wrote the non violent revolution rulebook” Dr Gene Sharp is the man
credited with the strategy behind the toppling of governments from Serbia to Egypt. http://www.bbc.co.uk/go/em/fr/-/news/world-middle-east-12522848[4] Martin Nowak & Roger Highfield “Super Cooperators - Evolution, Altruism and Human Behaviour-” or ‘Why we need eachother to succeed’ Free Press, 2011. (Nowak: mathematical evolutionary biology)[5] Anna Kuchment, “ The Smartest Bacteria on Earth” One species of soil microbe (in a
huge colony) makes unusually wise communal decisions, Scientific American, June 2011, http://www.ScientificAmerican/jun2011/bacteria about article of Eshel Ben-Jacob in BMC Genomics, Dec 2010.[6] Gene Sharp, Non violent revolution Manual, FDTD www.greensharpfilm.com
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In Praise of Disobedience
More Sources
[1] Images from the Sea of Green http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=quPXg_GoTOk[2] Farsi PDF magazine http://bit.ly/3tEjZx [3] van Till “Technologies of Flocking” http://www.scienceguide.nl/article.asp?articleid=107531 Science Guide July 3 2009 , including link to Stonier article.[4] Iran’s Modern Communications http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r8ROCzKzQNc&feature=related[5] http://www.haystacknetwork.com/[6] American journalists about Iran http://fora.tv/2009/07/01/Tweeting_The_Revolution[7] Peter Csermely , “Weak Links" -- Stabilizers of Complex Systems from Proteins to Social Networks”; Springer 2006[9 ] Rao, “Market Rebels – How Activists Make or Break Radical Innovations” ; 2009, Princeton University Press[8 ] Shirky, “Here Comes Everybody – How Change Happens when People Come Together; 2009, Penguin[10] Earls. “HERD – How to Change Mass Behaviour by Harnessing our True Nature”; revised edition 2009, Wiley[11] Carlota Perez, 2009 Open Democracy Journal; http://www.opendemocracy.net/article/economics/email/how-to-make-economic-crisis-creative[12] Perez, http://www.carlotaperez.org/papers/4-technologicalrevolutionsparadigm.htm#comienzo [13] Perez, http://www.carlotaperez.org/papers/2-technologicalrevolutionsparadigm.htm[14] Lawrence Lessig about the re-use of intellectual property http://wiki.lessig.org/index.php?title=TheKeenReader[15] Peizer, “ The Dynamics of Technology for Social Change – lessons learned from the field” ; 2006, iUniverse Inc[16] Gene Sharp “ From Dictatorship to Democracy – A Conceptual Framework for Liberation, The Albert Einstein Institution 2002, Original version by Khit Pyaing , Bangkok in 1993. PDF is online.[17] Popovic, Milivojevic, Djinovic “Nonviolent Struggle – 50 Crucial Points” Manual ; 2006 CANVAS Belgrade, online as 50CP_Farsi.pdf or 50CP_English.pdf[18] Siegfried Woldhek http://www.Nabuur.com[19] Michel Bauwens P2P Foundation http://p2pfoundation.net/The_Foundation_for_P2P_Alternatives[20] Template Twitter Strategy for Government Departements (UK mInistries)[21] Fleetwood Mac, “Don’t stop Thinking about Tomorrow” http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a8arvEzHsA8[22] Mark Cooper ” FROM WIFI TO WIKIS AND OPEN SOURCE: THE POLITICAL ECONOMY OF COLLABORATIVE PRODUCTION IN
THE DIGITAL INFORMATION AGE” Telecommunications & High Technolgy Law Vol 5, 9/7/2007 Stanford[23] Van Till “Towards Synthecracy” , Knowledge Democracy Conference, Leiden summer 2009[24] Project “The wisdom of crowds” Stichting Toekomstbeeld Techniek (STT), KIVI 2010
Technologies of Flocking: creative construction towards the Synthecracy Society