GE CAPITAL FUTURE FLEET CONFERENCE...NewcarandLCVdemand Recoveryinnewcar&demand,linkedtoSIS....
Transcript of GE CAPITAL FUTURE FLEET CONFERENCE...NewcarandLCVdemand Recoveryinnewcar&demand,linkedtoSIS....
Welsh Automotive Forum Industry Summit
Paul EverittChief executive
SMMT
New car and LCV demandRecovery in new car demand, linked to SIS.
Demand up 28.7% YTD, but to fall overall in 2010 to 18.2mn.
LCV demand fallen sharply. Now stable at low level. +8.8% YTD.
UK new car and LCV registrations (Source SMMT)
1.70
1.90
2.10
2.30
2.50
2.70
05 06 07 08 09 10
New car registrations. Mns
Car regs Forecast @ Jan '10
175
200
225
250
275
300
325
350
05 06 07 08 09 10
New LCV registrations, '000s
LCV regs Forecast @ Jan '10
New car and CV outputRecession caused sharp drop in vehicle output.
Car production recovering, due to SIS. Up 64.8% in January.
CV volumes down 55% in 2009. Output stable, at low level.
UK car and CV production (Source SMMT)
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.7
05 06 07 08 09 10
Car production, Mns
Car total Export
50
100
150
200
250
05 06 07 08 09 10
CV production, '000s
CV Total Export
Automotive Council
The Automotive Council exists to help:
Create a transformed business environment in the UK to provide a more compelling investment proposition for the related industries.
Develop further the technology roadmaps for low carbon vehicles and fuels, and exploit opportunities to promote the UK as a strong candidate to develop these and other technologies.
Develop a stronger and more competitive supply chain.
Provide a stronger public voice for the industry to support the value of the industry to the UK and to global partners.
Ensure a strategic, continuous conversation between Government and the Automotive industry.
In addition the Automotive Council will address any matters agreed by the Chairmen.
Automotive Council
The Automotive Council Members:
Richard Parry Jones (Chair)Dr Ralph Speth Jaguar Land RoverGordon Murray (Deputy) Gordon Murray DesignJoe Greenwell FordBill Parfitt GMKenneth Keir HondaTrevor Mann NissanHermann Kaess Robert BoschNigel Stein GKN AutoJürgen Hedrich BMWGraham Smith ToyotaJon Carling Aston MartinFranz-Josef Paefgen BentleyDave Keene RDM Automotive/Niche Vehicles GroupGwenne Henricks Caterpillar IncAndrea Paver Leyland TrucksJerry Hardcastle Nissan (Chair of Technology Council)Barry Dodd Addpower Technologies/ GSM Group Paul Everitt SMMTJohn Miles ARUPDave Osborne UNITEBrian Collins Chief Scientist, BIS & DfT
Technology Council
The Technology Council aims to help:
Identify opportunities to provide a more compelling investment proposition for automotive R&D in the UK versus other countries.
Agree on the technology roadmaps for low carbon vehicles and fuels, and exploit opportunities to promote the UK as a strong candidate to develop these technologies.
Develop a stronger supply base through joint research on focused areas driven by a common agenda and by facilitating collaboration opportunities.
In addition the Technology Group will address any matters agreed by the Automotive Council and Supply Chain Group.
Technology Council
The Technology Council Members:
Jerry Hardcastle (Chair) NissanKeith Austin Greater London AuthorityJohn Batterbee Energy Technologies InstituteJon Beasley GKNHugh Blaxill MAHLE PowertrainTudor Brown ARM HoldingsCatherine Coates EPSRCJohn Cooper BPRobert Evans CenexErik Fairbairn InfrachangeSteve Faulkner CaterpillarNick Fell TATAMiguel Fragoso Millbrook Proving GroundGeorge Gillespie MIRAAndrew Graves University of BathBrian Gush Bentley Motors Tony Harper Jaguar Land Rover Graham Hoare FordDavid Hytch Greater Manchester Transport AuthorityNeville Jackson Ricardo Allan McKenzie SMMTCharles Morgan MorganDon Newton AxeonTheo Quick LogicaTony Spillane SAIC Motor UKStephen Stacey ToyotaJim sumner OptareCalvey Taylor-‐Haw ElektomotiveHenri Winand Intelligent Energy Simon Wood Lotus Engineering David Densley Scottish & Southern EnergyBrian Collins BIS/DfT
Technology Council
Technology Roadmap
Mass Market EV TechnologyNiche EVs
20202000 2010 2030
Full Hybrid
Micro/Mild Hybrid
130 95 TBDEU Fleet Average CO2 Targets (g/km)
2040
Plug-In Hybrid
IC Engine and Transmission innovations (gasoline/diesel/gas/renewables)
Demonstrators Fuel Cell Vehicle
DemonstratorsCharging Infrastructure
H2 Infrastructure
Energy Storage Breakthrough
Energy Storage Breakthrough
Vehicle Weight and Drag Reduction
Fuel Cell & H2 Supply/Storage Breakthrough
Technology CouncilCommon Research Agenda
Technology Council
The Technology Council aims to help:
Supply Chain Council
The Supply Chain Council exists to help:
Build consensus on the challenges in the UK Supply Chain.
Enhance the dialogue between OEMs, Tier 1s and the supply chain on present and future business priorities.
Review the Technology Roadmap and develop a high level UK supply chain technology vision.
Engage with those responsible for existing training and support budgets to seek to reflect these priorities.
In addition the Supply Chain Group will address any matters agreed by the Automotive Council and the Technology Group.
Supply Chain Council
The Supply Chain Council Members:
Bill Parfitt (Chair) GMNigel Stein (Deputy Chair) GKN AutomotiveMark Adams ToyotaDavid Bell JCBMike Carr East Midlands Development AgencyGeoff Dale Industry ForumJames Davies Calsonic KanseiSimon Griffiths MAS West Midlands Ian Harnett JLRMatthias Holweg Cambridge UniversityJon King Corus Automotive EngineeringIndro Mukerjee C-MAC Micro-TechnologyJim Rickard MichelinKeith Smith Plastic Products InternationalDermot Sterne StadcoPeter Stewart TI AutomotiveYung Tran SMMTEngelbert Wimmer PA ConsultingJohn Wingfield Flambeau Europlast
SMMT Supply Chain Report
Independent report on UK Supply Chain
Key Findings:
There is a genuine wish to increase UK sourcing, despite:- Hollowing out of UK industry.- And structural problems in the UK.
Opportunities still exist for the UK.
Three key reasons:- To reduce logistics costs & strain.- To reduce exchange rates risks.- To support new ULC technologies
SMMT Supply Chain ReportSupply-side gaps exist in new and old technologies :
Key gaps in current technology:
- Castings and forgings;; alloy wheels, alternators & /starter motors, brake components, fasteners, plastic mouldings, stampings, sheet steel, transmission components, wiring.
- Advanced air-conditioning, ECUs in general, safety (esp.airbags), satellite navigation.
New, low carbon technology will require a new supply chain,not just for batteries, but also:
- Wiring, motors, reducers, inverters.
- Plus plastic and metal components which could be supplied from existing suppliers.
Technology Strategy Board
Ultra Low Carbon Demonstrator Programme
£25m invested between DfT/OLEV, AWM, ONE, SEEDA andTSB to put 340 cars on the road by late 2009/early 2010
Outputs: -vehicle logging.
Exposure to multiple drivers and drive cycles.Opportunity to understand customer perceptions and concerns.Interface challenges with Infrastructure.Inform future demonstrator activity within LCV IDP.
Office for Low Emission VehiclesPlug-in Car Grant
25% up to a maximum of £5,000This amount will be reviewed in Q1 2012 with any potential changes coming into effect April 2012
Commencing January 2011The funding can only be paid once the vehicle is delivered so this does allow pre-
to March 2014There is up to £230m - split across financial years. Current thinking is to manage any potential shortfall with a mechanism similar to that being used to wind down scrappage.
Office for Low Emission Vehicles
Plugged In Places EV Infrastructure Framework
Up to £30m matched funding available.
Supporting infrastructure implementation and learning across the UK.
3 locations already announced representing 11,000 charge points installed within 3 years: - London - Milton Keynes- North East
Second round of bids to take place in Sept 2010.
Technology Strategy Board
Integrated Delivery Programme4 Ultra - Low CarbonVehicle Technology and supply network development
Competition 4 - Up to £19m for supply chain development.Collaborative Research and Development and Demonstration.Road based TransportOn Vehicle technologyFund approx three to six projectsCo-funded between the Office for Low Emission Vehicles and the Technology Strategy Board.
SMMT Support
Raise profile and promote importance of UK motor industry influence the direction of public policy on the issues of most concern to our industry.
Provide business intelligence on the opportunities emerging in the global automotive industry reports, data and forecasts on key markets and customers.
Help build closer relationships and promote networking opportunities for companies at all levels of the supply chain and with key funders and stakeholders.
SMMT Support
Provide guidance and advice so that companies can better access the support and funding that is available.
Through SMMT Industry Forum, provide direct productivity improvements and training services to help companies maintain and develop their competitive edge.
SMMT ASF database
SMMT Automotive Supplier Finder (ASF) database being used to support the work of Supply Chain Council in understanding UK supply base and capabilities.
SMMT have recently been supporting vehicle manufacturers find potential suppliers through ASF.
We encourage you to keep your profile up-to-date so that we are able to best match your products and capabilities to buyers requirements.
SMMT Support to WAF members
Offer all Welsh Automotive Forum members free access
- Support services- Business opportunities- Market intelligencewww.smmt.co.uk/memberservices
advice.
Paul Everitt
Chief executiveSMMT
www.smmt.co.ukhttp://twitter.com/PauleverittSMMT