GDGE0102MAR H1 Global LNG Liquefaction sample · PDF filecould be tied to the Henry Hub...

REFERENCE CODE GDGE0102MAR | PUBLICAT ION DATE OCTOBER 2014

H1 GLOBAL LNG LIQUEFACTION AND REGASIFICATION CAPACITY OUTLOOK – NEW

EXPORT AND IMPORT FACILITIES TO SIGNIFICANTLY ALTER GLOBAL LNG TRADE

H1 Global LNG Liquefaction and Regasification Capacity Outlook – New Export and Import Facilities to Significantly Alter Global LNG Trade 2

© GlobalData. This report is a licensed product and is not to be copied, reproduced, shared or resold in any form.

H1 GLOBAL LNG LIQUEFACTION AND REGASIFICATION CAPACITY OUTLOOK – NEW EXPORT AND IMPORT FACILITIES TO

SIGNIFICANTLY ALTER GLOBAL LNG TRADE

Executive Summary

Natural gas has become the world’s energy of

choice, with demand growing at more than twice

the demand for oil. Natural gas is more

environmentally friendly than oil and is replacing

fuel oil in power generation and industrial uses.

The abundance of low cost natural gas in the US

and Canada and the recent natural gas discoveries

in Mozambique will impact the pricing structure of

Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) contracts and trade

flows. The fracking of gas deposits in the US has

resulted in a surplus natural gas position and

changed the industry’s focus to exporting natural

gas via the construction of LNG liquefaction

facilities in the US Gulf Coast as well as in the east

and west coast areas. The landscape for exporting

western Canadian natural gas is also changing.

There are XX LNG terminals proposed for the

coast of British Columbia, seven of which have

been granted export permits by the government.

More than US$XX billion will be invested initially in

Mozambique’s natural gas sector to build the

liquefaction capacity to produce XX million metric

tons per year (mmty) (XX billion cubic feet (bcf)) of

LNG, with the first exports due to start in 2018 and

2019. Around XX trillion cubic feet (tcf) of gas has

been found in Mozambique’s offshore Rovuma

Basin, enough to supply Germany, Britain, France

and Italy for XX years.

LNG regasification facilities will be required in

Europe and Asia to receive increases in LNG

imports. The Ukraine-Russia situation has resulted

in the EU suspending the approval of the South

Stream Pipeline that will bring incremental volumes

of natural gas into Europe and bypass Ukraine. A

number of EU countries rely on Russian natural

gas supplies and are thus reviewing options to

lower their dependence. An option is building

regasification facilities that will take LNG volumes

from secure supply sources from the US and

Africa.

Natural gas demand will increase in Asia. Without

local resources to meet demand growth, increased

imports are forecast to occur in China, Japan, India

and South Korea. New LNG production from

Australia is primarily destined to Asia, but utilities in

the aforementioned countries are also contracting

LNG supplies from US facilities.

The result of new liquefaction and re-gasification

facilities is a change in worldwide supply patterns

(including the need for more LNG tonnage) and

LNG pricing. Supplies from the US and Canada

could be tied to the Henry Hub natural gas price,

and the introduction of more LNG supplies in the

marketplace could result in more spot-market LNG

sales.





Executive Summary

The global LNG liquefaction industry is expected to

see major restructuring from 2013 to 2020. The

Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA) region,

which includes Russia, has been the epicenter for

LNG liquefaction, accounting for nearly XX% of

global LNG liquefaction capacity. By 2020, its

dominance will to a large extent reduce, as its

share in global LNG liquefaction capacity reduces

to XX%. The Americas region will increase its

share in global liquefaction capacity from XX% in

2013 to XX% in 2020. The share of Asia-Pacific

(APAC) will also reduce from around XX% in 2013

to around XX% in 2020.

The following figure compares the liquefaction

capacity shares of the Americas, APAC and EMEA

between 2013 and 2020.

Liquefied Natural Gas Industry, Global, Comparison of Liquefaction Capacity Shares by Regions (%), 2013 and 2020

Source: GlobalData, Oil and Gas eTrack, LNG Capacity Database [Accessed on March 27, 2014]

The high growth in the liquefaction capacity of the

Americas compared with the other two regions is

due to the expected start of several liquefaction

terminals in the US and Canada during the 2014–

2020 period. The US, a traditional LNG importer, is

expected to build around XX mmty (XX bcf) in

liquefaction capacity by 2020. The liquefaction

capacity of Canada is also expected to increase in

similar terms to touch XX mmty (XX bcf) by 2020.

In terms of LNG regasification capacity, APAC is

the leading region in the world due to the presence

of major LNG importing countries, including Japan,

South Korea, and China. The region accounts for

over half of the current active LNG regasification

capacity globally and will continue to be the highest

regasification capacity holder by 2020 due to

planned regasification capacity additions by India

and China.



Table of Contents



1 Table of Contents

1 Table of Contents ....................................................................................................................... 5

1.1 List of Tables ...................................................................................................................... 6

1.2 List of Figures ..................................................................................................................... 7

2 Introduction ................................................................................................................................. 8

2.1 GlobalData Report Guidance .............................................................................................. 8

3 Global Liquefied Natural Gas Capacity Outlook to 2020 ............................................................. 9

3.1 Global Liquefied Natural Gas Liquefaction Capacity Outlook by Region............................ 10

3.2 Global Liquefied Natural Gas Regasification Capacity Outlook by Region ........................ 12

3.3 Major Trends and Issues ................................................................................................... 14

4 Americas Liquefied Natural Gas Capacity Outlook to 2020 ....................................................... 20

4.1 Liquefied Natural Gas Liquefaction Capacity Outlook, Key Countries ............................... 20

4.2 Liquefied Natural Gas Regasification Capacity Outlook, Key Countries ............................ 24

5 Europe, the Middle East and Africa, Liquefied Natural Gas Capacity Outlook to 2020 .............. 30



6 Asia-Pacific Liquefied Natural Gas Capacity Outlook to 2020 ................................................... 42



7 Benchmarking ........................................................................................................................... 54

7.1 Major Operators by Active and Planned Liquefied Natural Gas Liquefaction Capacity ...... 54

7.2 Major Operators by Active and Planned Liquefied Natural Gas Regasification Capacity ... 57



Table of Contents



8 Appendix................................................................................................................................... 62

8.1 Definitions ......................................................................................................................... 62

8.2 Abbreviations .................................................................................................................... 62

8.3 Sources............................................................................................................................. 64

8.4 Research Methodology ..................................................................................................... 64

8.4.1 Coverage ...................................................................................................................... 65

8.4.2 Secondary Research ..................................................................................................... 65

8.5 Disclaimer ......................................................................................................................... 65

1.1 List of Tables

Table 1: Liquefied Natural Gas Industry, Global, Details of Liquefied Natural Gas Import Contracts from US

to Europe, 2014 ........................................................................................................................... 15

Table 2: Liquefied Natural Gas Industry, Americas, Liquefaction Capacity Outlook (mmty), 2013–2020 ..... 20

Table 3: Liquefied Natural Gas Industry, Americas, Regasification Capacity Outlook (bcf), 2013–2020 ...... 25

Table 4: Liquefied Natural Gas Industry, Europe, the Middle East and Africa, Liquefaction Capacity Outlook

for Major Countries (mmty), 2013–2020 ....................................................................................... 31

Table 5: Liquefied Natural Gas Industry, Europe, the Middle East and Africa, Regasification Capacity

Outlook for Major Countries (bcf), 2013–2020 .............................................................................. 38

Table 6: Liquefied Natural Gas Industry, Europe, the Middle East and Africa, Major Planned Liquefied

Natural Gas Regasification Terminals in Emerging/New Importing Countries, 2014–2020 ............ 41

Table 7: Liquefied Natural Gas Industry, Asia-Pacific, Liquefaction Capacity Outlook (mmty), 2013–2020 . 44

Table 8: Liquefied Natural Gas Industry, Australia, Major Planned Liquefied Natural Gas Liquefaction

Projects, 2014 ............................................................................................................................. 46

Table 9: Liquefied Natural Gas Industry, Asia-Pacific, Regasification Capacity Outlook (bcf), 2013–2020 .. 50



Table of Contents



1.2 List of Figures

Figure 1: Liquefied Natural Gas Industry, Global, Geographic Distribution of Liquefied Natural Gas

Capacities, 2014 ......................................................................................................................... 10

Figure 2: Gas Industry, Russia, Existing and Planned Infrastructure for Gas Export to China and Far East,

2014............................................................................................................................................ 16

Figure 3: Liquefied Natural Gas Industry, Americas, Distribution of Planned Liquefaction Capacity by

Country and Project Stage, 2020 ................................................................................................. 21

Figure 4: Liquefied Natural Gas Industry, Canada, Planned Liquefied Natural Gas liquefaction Terminals

along the West Coast, 2014 ........................................................................................................ 23

Figure 5: Liquefied Natural Gas Industry, Americas, Distribution of Planned Regasification Capacity by


Figure 6: Liquefied Natural Gas Industry, US, Liquefied Natural Gas Imports (bcf), 2009–2013 .................. 28

Figure 7: Liquefied Natural Gas Industry, Europe, the Middle East and Africa, Distribution of Planned

Liquefaction Capacity by Country and Project Stage, 2020 .......................................................... 32

Figure 8: Liquefied Natural Gas Industry, Europe, the Middle East and Africa, Distribution of Planned

Regasification Capacity by Country and Project Stage, 2020 ....................................................... 39

Figure 9: Liquefied Natural Gas Industry, Asia-Pacific, Distribution of Planned Liquefaction Capacity by


Figure 10: Liquefied Natural Gas Industry, Asia-Pacific, Distribution of Planned Regasification Capacity by


Figure 11: Liquefied Natural Gas Industry, Global, Key Liquefied Natural Gas Operators by Liquefaction

Capacity (mmty), 2013 ................................................................................................................ 54

Figure 12: Liquefied Natural Gas Industry, Global, Key Liquefied Natural Gas Operators by Planned

Liquefaction Capacity Addition (mmty), 2014–2020...................................................................... 56

Figure 13: Liquefied Natural Gas Industry, Global, Key Liquefied Natural Gas Operators by Regasification

Capacity (bcf), 2013 .................................................................................................................... 58

Figure 14: Liquefied Natural Gas Industry, Global, Key Liquefied Natural Gas Operators by Planned

Regasification Capacity Addition (bcf), 2014–2020 ...................................................................... 60





Introduction

2 Introduction

The global Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) industry is currently witnessing rapid developments at both

supply (liquefaction) side and demand (regasification) side. At the liquefaction side, Qatar currently

holds the highest LNG liquefaction capacity in the world. However, by 2020, the US, Australia and

Canada are expected to become larger centers for LNG liquefaction. By 2020, the global LNG

industry is also expected to become more receptive to LNG pricing, independent of crude oil

pricing. As the flexible hub-price based LNG contracts, as offered by US LNG suppliers, become

more widespread, traditional crude oil-indexed LNG pricing is likely to be increasingly challenged

by buyers.

Major LNG buyers in Asia are trying to form buyers clubs in order to better negotiate LNG prices.

Among the traditional major LNG buyers in the world, the US is set to change status from a buyer

to a supplier of LNG. India is expected to see a major increase in its LNG purchases as the country

plans massive increase in its LNG regasification capacity. Japan, South Korea, and China are

expected to continue to be major LNG buyers. Several new LNG buyers are expected to emerge,

especially in the Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) region, by 2020. Most of these countries are

trying to find alternatives to Russian gas supplies and thus plan to start importing LNG.

2.1 GlobalData Report Guidance

The report begins with an executive summary chapter, which highlights the key findings of the

report. The main body of the report is structured as follows:

Chapter two provides an introduction to the report and provides report guidance.

Chapter three provides an overview of global liquefaction and regasification capacities and

highlights key trends and issues in the global LNG industry

Chapter four provides an overview and outlook of LNG capacity in Americas to 2020

Chapter five provides an overview and outlook of LNG capacity in EMEA to 2020

Chapter six provides an overview and outlook of LNG capacity in APAC to 2020

Chapter seven provides a comparison of major LNG liquefaction and regasification operators

worldwide.

Chapter eight is the appendix to the report.



Europe, the Middle East and Africa



5.1 Liquefied Natural Gas Liquefaction Capacity Outlook, Key Countries

In the EMEA region, XX countries have active liquefaction capacity. Qatar accounted for around

XX% of the region’s total capacity in 2013. The country does not plan any new liquefaction capacity

additions until 2020. Other major countries in the region in terms of liquefaction capacity include

Nigeria and Algeria with capacities of XX mmty (XX bcf) and XX mmty (XX bcf), respectively.

Nigeria is expected to add considerable new liquefaction capacity by 2020 increasing its total

capacity to XX mmty (XX bcf). Algeria also plans to increase its liquefaction capacity to XXmmty

(XX bcf) during the same period.

The following table shows LNG liquefaction capacity outlook for major countries in EMEA up to

2020.

Table 4: Liquefied Natural Gas Industry, Europe, the Middle East and Africa, Liquefaction Capacity Outlook for Major Countries (mmty), 2013–2020

Country 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Qatar

Nigeria

Algeria

Egypt

Oman

Russia

Yemen

UAE

Angola

Norway

Others

Total

Total (bcf) Source: GlobalData, Oil and Gas eTrack, LNG Capacity Database [Accessed on March 27, 2014]



Europe, the Middle East and Africa



The following figure shows the distribution of the EMEA’s planned liquefaction capacity by country

and project stage.

Figure 7: Liquefied Natural Gas Industry, Europe, the Middle East and Africa, Distribution of Planned Liquefaction Capacity by Country and Project Stage, 2020

Feasibility FEED Approval Construction

Pla

nned

liqu

efac

tion

capa

city

(mm

ty)

Algeria Cyprus Equatorial Guinea Iran

Iraq Israel Mozambique Nigeria

Russia Tanzania

Source: GlobalData, Oil and Gas eTrack, LNG Capacity Database [Accessed on March 27, 2014]



Appendix



8 Appendix

8.1 Definitions

The three major regions considered for this report are Europe, the Middle East and Africa (EMEA);

Asia-Pacific (APAC); and the Americas (North America, Central America, the Caribbean and South

America).

Annual capacity refers to the capacity as of December 31 of each year.

Capacity information for the 2014–2020 period is based on new project developments and capacity

expansion announcements made by companies and oil and gas ministries.

The total liquefaction/regasification capacity of a company refers to the total equity weighted

capacity of all liquefaction/regasification terminals in which the company has equity stakes.

The capacities of partly owned subsidiaries are not included in the capacity of the parent company.

The former are shown as separate companies in the report.

8.2 Abbreviations

AAGR: Average Annual Growth Rate

APAC: Asia-Pacific

bcf: billion cubic feet

CEE: Central and Eastern European

CNPC: China National Petroleum Corporation

CSG: Coal Seam Gas

DoE: US Department of Energy

EMEA: Europe, the Middle East and Africa

FEED: Front-End Engineering Design

FERC: Federal Energy Regulatory Commission

FID: Final Investment Decision

FLNG: Floating Liquefied Natural Gas



Appendix



FSRU: Floating Storage and Regasification Unit

FTA: Free Trade Agreement

GAIL: Gas Authority of India Limited

IOC: International Oil Company

IOCL: Indian Oil Corporation Ltd

JCC: Japan Customs-Cleared Crude

KNPC: Kuwait National Petroleum Company

KOGAS: Korea Gas Corp.

LNG: Liquefied Natural Gas

mmBtu: million British thermal unit

mmty: million metric tons per year

MOU: Memorandum of Understanding

NEB: National Energy Board

NNPC: Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation

NOC: National Oil Company

NTS: National Transmission System

OKLNG: Olokola Liquefied Natural Gas

SPA: Supply Purchase Arrangement

tcf: trillion cubic feet

TIGF: Transport and Infrastructures Gaz France

WTO: World Trade Organization



Appendix



8.3 Sources

Anderlini and Robinson (2013). China-Myanmar pipeline to open in May. Financial Times.

Available from: http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/faf733ae-63b6-11e2-af8c-00144feab49a.html

[Accessed on September 23, 2013]

APA (2013). Victorian Transmission System. APA Group. Available from:

http://www.apa.com.au/our-business/energy-infrastructure/victoria.aspx [Accessed on

September 23, 2013]

DoE (2014). Applications Received by DoE/FE to Export Domestically Produced LNG from the

Lower-48 States (as of April 18, 2014). US Department of Energy. Available from:

http://energy.gov/sites/prod/files/2014/05/f15/Summary%20of%20LNG%20Export%20Applicati

ons.pdf

EIA (2014). U.S. Liquefied Natural Gas Imports. U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Available from: http://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/hist/n9103us2A.htm [Accessed on June 06, 2014]

Gazprom (2014). Alexey Miller: Russia and China signed the biggest contract in the entire

history of Gazprom. JSC Gazprom Neft. Available from:

http://www.gazprom.com/press/news/2014/may/article191451/?from=banner [Accessed on

May 22, 2013]

8.4 Research Methodology

GlobalData’s dedicated research and analysis teams consist of experienced professionals with

advanced statistical expertise and marketing, market research and consulting backgrounds in the

energy industry.

GlobalData adheres to the codes of practice of the Market Research Society (www.mrs.org.uk) and

Strategic and Competitive Intelligence Professionals (www.scip.org).

All GlobalData databases are continuously updated and revised.



Appendix



8.4.1 Coverage

The objective of updating GlobalData’s coverage is to ensure that it represents the most up-to-date

vision of the industry possible.

GlobalData aims to cover all major news events and deals in the energy industry, updated on a

daily basis.

8.4.2 Secondary Research

The research process begins with extensive secondary research on internal and external sources

to gather qualitative and quantitative information relating to each market.

The secondary research sources that are typically referred to include, but are not limited to:

Company websites, annual reports, financial reports, broker reports, investor presentations and

SEC filings

Industry trade journals and other technical literature

Internal proprietary and external databases

National government documents, statistical databases and market reports

News articles, press releases and web-casts specific to the companies operating in the market

8.5 Disclaimer

All Rights Reserved.

No part of this publication can be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any

form by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without the prior

permission of the publisher, GlobalData.

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