GCC Outlook 2012 - Emirates NBD...Page 3 Research from Emirates NBD Overview The GCC economies...

Quarterly 12 January 2012

Khatija Haque

Senior Economist

+971 4 230 7801

[email protected]

Research from Emirates NBD

GCC Outlook 2012

Regional growth is likely to slow to 3.9% in 2012 from an estimated 7.3% in

2011, as the substantial boost from higher oil production last year is now in the

base. Government spending should underpin growth in the face of weaker external

demand.

The regional inflation outlook is benign as easing food prices and a strong USD

should help to keep a lid on imported inflation, and housing costs are likely to

remain contained particularly in the UAE, Bahrain and Qatar.

In the UAE, we expect growth to slow to 2.5% in 2012 from an estimated 4.6%

in 2011. The private sector is particularly vulnerable to weaker global growth, and

activity in Q4 2011 has already been affected by external developments. Private

sector credit growth has been relatively weak in 2011 and is expected to remain so

this year.

Saudi Arabia’s substantial public spending will be the anchor for expected

growth of 3.8% in 2012 in our view, as oil production is likely to ease. Inflation is

high by regional standards at just under 5% and is expected to moderate only

slightly in 2012. Saudi Arabia’s high foreign reserves and low debt levels provide a

substantial cushion, and would allow fiscal policy to remain growth-supportive even

in the event of a negative oil price shock.

Qatar’s GDP growth is expected to slow sharply to 7.1% in 2012, from 17.9%

last year, as the decade long expansion of LNG capacity comes to an end.

However, an ambitious multi-year infrastructure investment program will support

growth in the non-hydrocarbon sector.

Government spending is likely to support GDP growth in both Oman and

Bahrain in 2012, while Kuwait is unlikely to push ahead with its planned investment

programs until after a new government is formed. Elections in Kuwait are

scheduled for 2 February.

Real GDP growth in the GCC

* Weighted by nominal GDP

Source: Haver Analytics, Emirates NBD Research

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

Saudi Arabia

UAE Qatar Kuwait Oman Bahrain GCC average*

%

2009 2010 2011f 2012f


Contents

Overview ...................................................................................................................................... Page 3

UAE ............................................................................................................................................... Page 5

Saudi Arabia ............................................................................................................................... Page 8

Qatar .......................................................................................................................................... Page 10

Kuwait ....................................................................................................................................... Page 12

Oman ......................................................................................................................................... Page 13

Bahrain ...................................................................................................................................... Page 14

Key Economic Forecasts..................................................................................................... Page 15


Overview

The GCC economies proved relatively resilient to global and

regional shocks in 2011, largely thanks to oil. Higher oil

production (up 10.5% according to Bloomberg estimates)

underpinned GDP growth of 7.3% according to our estimates. This

was significantly higher than growth in most developed countries

and indeed, many emerging markets as well. Substantial

increases in public spending in the aftermath of the Arab Spring

also contributed to the strong growth performance of GCC

economies.

Oil sector likely to be a drag on growth in 2012

Notwithstanding OPEC’s recent quota increase, we do not

expect the boost to growth from oil to be sustained in 2012 for

several reasons: global growth forecasts have been downgraded,

suggesting weaker demand for oil; output from Libya is likely to

rise sharply as that country recovers from its civil war; and the

2011 increase in GCC production is now in the base. As the

‘swing producer’ in OPEC, we expect Saudi Arabia’s oil output to

contract in 2012 providing a strong headwind to overall GDP

growth in the Kingdom next year. We expect UAE and Kuwait to

maintain production around current levels, so any real GDP growth

in 2012 will need to come from non-oil sectors.

Consensus forecasts (Bloomberg, 10 January 2012) put the

average oil price at USD 104.5 per barrel (pb) in 2012, rising to

USD 113.1 pb in 2013. The OPEC reference price averaged USD

107.5 per barrel last year. We use the average consensus oil price

forecasts as inputs to our GCC models.

Fiscal policy is likely to be growth supportive

As has been the case to varying degrees across the region in

2011, government spending is likely to underpin growth in the non-

oil economy this year.

Saudi Arabia has been the most aggressive with its spending

since the financial crisis, drawing on its substantial cash

reserves to finance investment and infrastructure spending.

Indeed, total expenditure grew 23% y/y in 2011 and was almost

40% over the original budget. A substantial amount of the

unbudgeted spending was in the form of public sector wage

increases & bonuses, subsidies and other social benefits

announced as part of USD 124bn package in February and March

2011, at the height of Arab Spring unrest. Although the official

2012 budget projects a decline in both revenue and spending, we

expect total expenditure in 2012 will be similar to 2011 at SAR

800bn, supporting overall GDP growth of 3.8% in the Kingdom.

Elsewhere in the GCC, government spending rose between

6% and 30% y/y in 2011, according to our estimates. We

expect spending to rise a further 6-10% in 2012 (excluding KSA),

as governments push ahead with longer term infrastructure

investment as well as boosting current spending through job

creation and subsidies. Despite the higher spending, we expect

the GCC to run a fiscal surplus of 9% of GDP in 2012, down

from 11.5% in 2011.

Consensus oil price forecasts

Source: Bloomberg (10 January 2012), Emirates NBD Research

GCC: Oil production

Source: Bloomberg, Emirates NBD Research

GCC: Expenditure and budget balance*


*Regional average, weighted by nominal GDP

2

3

4

5

6

13

14

15

16

17

Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11

mn

ba

rre

ls p

er

da

y

GCC ex Oman and Bahrain (lhs)

Libya + Iraq (rhs)

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

2008 2009 2010 2011e 2012f

% G

DP

Govt expenditure Budget balance


Private sector is vulnerable to global developments, to varying degrees

Of the larger Gulf economies, the UAE is probably more

vulnerable to global economic developments than Saudi

Arabia and Qatar. This is due to the UAE’s openness, its

diversified economy and also its relatively high debt levels and

reliance on global capital markets for financing. We believe the

UAE is particularly vulnerable to a slowdown in Asia, as China and

India are key trade partners, not just in terms of the value of goods

traded, but the volume of trade. This is a key driver for the UAE’s

transport & logistics sectors.

PMI data for the UAE suggests that the slowdown in global

growth has already had an impact on private sector activity,

with the PMI readings declining sharply from Q2 11. Weak private

sector credit growth has been another constraint to private sector

activity in the UAE. Private credit growth in Kuwait has also been

in the low single digits, as banks grapple with exposure to real

estate and investment funds.

Private sector credit growth has been much more robust in

Qatar, where it approached 20% by end-2011, while Saudi Arabia,

Oman and even Bahrain saw double digit growth in lending to the

private sector. This reflects a combination of higher liquidity in the

banking system and stronger bank balance sheets in those

countries.

GCC still likely to see solid growth in 2012

We expect to see real GDP growth slow across five of the six GCC

states, the exception being Bahrain which saw 2011 growth slow

sharply due to the uprisings in Q1. We forecast average growth

for the region at 3.9% in 2012, down from an estimated 7.3% in

2011.

Upside risks to this forecast include flat oil production in Saudi

Arabia (rather than the decline in oil output that we have projected)

or indeed higher oil output in the UAE and Kuwait in 2012; and

better than expected growth in the US and/or Asia. Downside risks

include a worse than expected Eurozone recession and/or slower

than expected growth in Asia.

Inflation likely to remain contained

We estimate inflation averaged 3.3% across the GCC this

year, with Bahrain and the UAE at the lower end of the range and

Saudi Arabia and Kuwait at the higher end. Looking ahead to

2012, we expect inflation to rise only slightly to an average 3.5%,

partly due to a low base but also due to higher services prices as

wage increases and other transfers boost household incomes.

On the flip side, global food prices declined 3.7% in Jan-Nov

2011 and this is likely to feed through to domestic inflation

through 2012. It typically takes 6-9 months for changes in global

food prices to feed through to GCC inflation indices. A stronger

USD is also likely to keep imported inflation in check. Housing

costs are also likely to remain low, particularly in the UAE, Qatar

and Bahrain.

GCC: Private sector credit growth*


GCC: GDP growth*


UN food price index


*Regional average, weighted by nominal GDP

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2008 2009 2010 2011e 2012f

% D

ec/ D

ec

6.1

0.3

4.7

7.3

3.9

0

2

4

6

8

2008 2009 2010 2011e 2012f

% y

/y

0

10

20

30

40

50

Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11

% y

/y


UAE

Growth set to slow to 2.5% in 2012

We expect real GDP growth to slow to 2.5% in 2012 from an

expected 4.6% in 2011. This is partly as the boost from higher oil

production in 2011 (8.8% y/y according to Bloomberg estimates) is

now in the base and unlikely to be repeated in 2012. Our base

case scenario is for UAE oil output to remain flat on average

in 2012.

The non-oil sector is also likely to face headwinds from a

weaker global growth environment, high uncertainty and risk

aversion. PMI data shows that non-oil private sector activity has

already slowed in H2 2011, as the Eurozone crisis escalated and

global growth slowed.

The UAE is a global and regional trade hub, and non-oil trade

is a key contributor to growth. Transport, storage &

communication, a very narrow measure that excludes the

contributions of trade finance and other services associated with

international trade, accounted for almost 9% of the UAE’s GDP in

2010, according to official data. This compares with 4% of GDP

for Saudi Arabia and Qatar. Slower economic growth in China and

India are a bigger concern for us than recession in Europe, as

these two Asian countries alone account for almost 20% of the

total volume of UAE’s non-oil trade.

The high level of public sector debt maturing in 2012 (IMF

estimates USD 30bn) could also constrain UAE growth, as

demand for domestic credit by the public sector crowds out the

private sector, and as deleveraging makes less cash available for

domestic spending and investment.

Fiscal policy is likely to be growth supportive

We expect the authorities to continue to pursue a prudent

fiscal policy in 2012, prioritizing essential infrastructure projects

in the transport and utilities sectors and delaying non-essential

construction and development. Recent announcements of

increased public sector wages for federal government employees,

(which we estimate will cost AED 7-10bn), additional social

benefits, and a AED 10bn fund to assist with debt payments for

low income families should help to boost household consumption

in the UAE.

However, increased spending means that the UAE’s break-even

oil price is also creeping higher. We estimate a breakeven oil price

of USD 107 per barrel, up from an estimated USD 98 pb in 2011

and just USD 24pb in 2005.

We expect the consolidated UAE budget to run a small deficit

of -0.6% of GDP in 2012, down from an expected surplus of 2.1%

of GDP in 2011. This is based on stable oil output in 2012 and

consensus oil price forecasts at the time of writing.

UAE: GDP growth


UAE: PMI


UAE: Consolidated budget balance

Source: IMF, Emirates NBD Research

3.3

-1.6

1.4

4.6

2.5

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

2008 2009 2010 2011e 2012f

% y

/y

45

50

55

60

Aug-09 Mar-10 Oct-10 May-11 Dec-11

16.2

-13.1

-2.1

2.1

-0.6

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

2008 2009 2010 2011e 2012f

% G

DP


Inflation to remain contained

Inflation in 2011 likely averaged 1%, almost unchanged from the

0.9% recorded in 2010. We expect inflation to remain modest in

2012 for several reasons:

1. Housing costs are likely to decline further on average in 2012

according to real estate analysts. At best, rents will remain

flat but are unlikely to contribute to higher inflation

2. World food prices declined 3.7% in the year to November

2011, and given the 6-9 month lag before this feeds through to

domestic inflation, this should help to keep a lid on UAE

inflation for most of 2012.

3. There is little evidence of demand-driven inflation or pricing

power in the UAE inflation data. Indeed, even as input costs

have risen through 2011, it appears as if this was absorbed by

manufacturers and retailers rather than being passed on to

consumers.

4. The USD has so far been the main beneficiary of risk

aversion, and to the extent that events in the Eurozone

deteriorate further, a strong USD in 2012 will keep a lid on

imported inflation.

Global liquidity conditions are likely to set the tone for UAE money market

Several factors have likely contributed to the outflow in bank

deposits seen in 2H 11. These could include an unwinding of the

differential between UAE and US rates as LIBOR rose; debt

repayments by GREs over the summer; and increased remittance

outflows as the USD strengthened. It is also possible that some of

the deposit inflows in Q1 that were attributed to the ‘Arab Spring’

have found their way into other assets in the UAE (such as

property).

Tighter liquidity conditions are evident in the decline of commercial

bank holdings of certificates of deposit (CDs) at the central bank,

as well as higher EIBOR rates.

We think developments in the global markets will continue to

set the tone in the UAE in 2012. Higher LIBOR rates and

demand for USD liquidity by European banks could be passed

through to the UAE banking system. To the extent that European

banks are unwilling or unable to roll over loans maturing this year

because of events in the Eurozone, deleveraging by GREs could

also be a drain on domestic liquidity.

We expect the appetite for domestic credit by public sector

entities will also remain high in this environment. Public

sector borrowing grew 32% in Jan-Sep 2011 over Jan-Sep 2010,

to the detriment of private sector credit growth, which grew 0.7%

over the same period. Although we think private sector credit

growth accelerated slightly in Q4 2011, we expect it to remain

weak relative to the rest of the GCC this year.

UAE: CPI


UAE: Bank deposits and CDs held by banks


UAE: pubic and private sector credit


-6

-3

0

3

6

9

12


% y

/y

CPI Food Housing

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

850

900

950

1000

1050

1100

1150


AE

D b

n

AE

D b

n

Bank deposits (lhs)

CDs (rhs)

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11

% y

/y

public sector credit

private sector credit


UAE - Dubai

Tourism, retail trade to remain key drivers of growth

We expect real GDP growth of 3.5% for Dubai in 2011, driven

mainly by tourism and associated services, as well as wholesale &

retail trade. Where global trade was a key growth driver for Dubai

in 2010, we suspect trade volumes slowed as global growth

weakened in 2H 2011.

Dubai’s tourism sector has benefitted from the political

developments in the region, as GCC and international tourist

flows were diverted to the emirate. Passenger traffic through

Dubai airports were up almost 8% in Jan-Nov 2011 and hotel

occupancy has averaged 75% in Jan-Nov, up from average 70% in

Jan-Nov 2010. Moreover, where hotels had to discount rooms

heavily in 2010 to boost occupancy, the higher occupancy rate in

2011 was achieved even as revenue per available room enjoyed

strong growth.

Wholesale & retail trade and hospitality services in the emirate

would also have benefitted from the increase in tourism and we

expect these sectors to have registered good growth in 2011. To

the extent that MENA remains a less attractive tourist destination

because of political unrest and uncertainty in 2012, we expect

hospitality and trade to remain the primary drivers of Dubai’s

growth this year.

Transport, storage & communication sectors account for 14%

of Dubai’s GDP, the second biggest component after wholesale &

retail trade. This is unsurprising given Dubai’s position as a

regional and global trade hub. Although we expect these sectors

to have contributed to growth in 2011, the slowdown in global

growth (and thus international trade) since mid-2011 suggests that

growth in these sectors may be weaker in 2012.

Dubai’s open, service-based economy makes it particularly

vulnerable to slower growth in Asia and the rest of the world. The

ability of the authorities to offset a weaker external environment

with higher public spending is constrained by the high level of debt

maturing next year. In this context, and on the back of our recent

downward revisions to 2012 global growth, we have revised our

forecast for Dubai’s GDP growth down to 2.5% this year, from

4% previously.

2012 budget deficit set to narrow

Dubai has approved a 2012 budget deficit of USD 500mn (-

0.6% of GDP), lower than the planned 2011 deficit of -1.2% of

GDP. Investment expenditure for Dubai is expected to decline by

21.3% y/y to AED 5.9bn, from AED 7.5bn budgeted in 2011. Total

expenditure is expected to contract by -4.3% this year, while

revenue is projected to rise by 1.8%. We expect the deficit will be

financed by a sovereign bond issue in 2012.

Dubai: Real GDP growth

Source: Haver Analytics, DSC, Emirates NBD Research

Dubai: Hotel occupancy and RevPAR

Source: STR Global, Emirates NBD Research

Dubai: Residential real estate prices


3.3

-2.5

2.8

3.5

2.5

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

2008 2009 2010 2011e 2012f

% y

/y

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

0

20

40

60

80

100


% y

/y

%

Occupancy (lhs)

RevPAR (rhs)

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15


% y

/y

Mid-range villa AED per sq. ft.

Mid-range apartment AED per sq. ft.


Saudi Arabia

Growth likely to slow in 2012, on declining oil output

Preliminary estimates put 2011 growth at 6.8%, slightly higher

than the 6.5% we had expected. A key contributor was likely the

11.9% rise in oil production to 9.2mn bpd (Bloomberg estimates)

from 8.3mn bpd in 2010, as a result of geopolitical factors.

However, Saudi oil production is likely to decline in 2012 as Libya’s

oil output normalises. We have assumed a decline in average oil

production in 2012, to 8.7 mn bpd from 9.2mn bpd in 2011.

Public sector spending is expected to remain strong, helping

to offset the decline in oil output, as the USD 125bn package

announced in Q1 2011 will be disbursed over several years.

Although the official budget assumes a decline in expenditure to

SAR 690bn in 2012, we are comfortable with our forecast of SAR

800mn in spending, unchanged from 2011. This should help to

offset declining oil output, and support private sector growth.

Taking all this into account, and in the context of slower global

growth next year, we expect Saudi Arabia’s real GDP growth to

slow to 3.8% in 2012.

Budget surplus expected, but break-even oil price creeps higher

The 2011 budget recorded a substantial surplus of 14.3% of

GDP on the back of higher oil revenues and despite a substantial

increase in spending. We expect the budget surplus to narrow to

around 11% of GDP this year, as oil production is likely to decline.

The official budget for 2012 is typically conservative,

projecting a 37% decline in revenue and a 14% decline in

expenditure from 2011 levels. However, we believe the budget

was based on an average oil price assumption of around USD 70

per barrel, while consensus forecasts for oil prices in 2012 are

closer to USD 105 per barrel. Based on the consensus oil price

forecast, and even assuming the decline in oil production, we still

think revenue will top SAR 1tn this year.

The official expenditure projection of SAR 690bn implies a

breakeven oil price of around USD 77 per barrel. However, we

note that since 2000, actual expenditure is on average 23% above

the budgeted figure. Consequently, we retain our forecast for 2012

budget spending at SAR 800bn, or 16% over the official budget.

Based on this, we estimate the breakeven oil price is closer to

USD 90 per barrel in 2012. While this is below current oil price

levels, we note that the break even oil price in 2011 was USD 85

per barrel and in 2005 it was just USD 35 per barrel (based on

actual expenditure, and oil production as reported by Bloomberg).

We expect the 2012 budget will record a surplus of 11.0% of

GDP, substantially higher than the official 0.5% surplus projection.

Saudi Arabia: Real GDP growth

Source: Haver Analytics, Ministry of Finance, Emirates NBD

Research

Saudi Arabia: Budget balance


Saudi Arabia: Break-even oil price

Source: Emirates NBD Research

4.2

0.1

4.1

6.8

3.8

0

2

4

6

8

2008 2009 2010 2011e 2012f

% y

/y

32.5

-6.1

5.2

14.3

11.0

-10

0

10

20

30

40

2008 2009 2010 2011e 2012f

% G

DP

0

20

40

60

80

100

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011e 2012f

US

D p

er

barr

el


Improved liquidity and credit growth

Liquidity conditions have improved in 2011, with broad money

growth (M3, excl. Govt deposits) in double digits for most of this

year. Although M3 growth has slowed over the summer, when we

include government deposits, the trend remains upwards.

Private sector borrowing also accelerated through the course

of last year, reaching 10.7% y/y in November. We expect

private sector credit growth to slow to 7.0% by end-2012 off a high

annual base and on the back of slower GDP growth. Public sector

credit growth has also been strong as the government steps up

infrastructure and social spending.

Inflation likely to remain under 5% next year

Inflation has averaged 4.9% year-to-November, despite the

boost to household incomes from the new spending measures in

Q1, and we expect it to remain broadly stable through the rest of

this year. We expect inflation in 2012 to remain under 5%, as food

and housing inflation eases and a strong USD should keep a lid on

imported inflation. However, to the extent that government

spending boosts household incomes (in the form of unemployment

benefits and wage increases), this could boost domestic demand

for services and contribute to some inflationary pressure in these

sectors.

External position is strong

Saudi Arabia’s external position remains exceptionally strong.

The current account surplus widened to 28.7% of GDP in 2011,

higher than the 25% of GDP we had forecast. We expect the

current account surplus to narrow to just under 20% of GDP in

2012 on the back of lower oil receipts as well as higher imports,

fuelled by both consumption and investment.

Official Net Foreign Assets stood at USD 526bn at the end of

November, almost 100% of 2011 nominal GDP. Saudi Arabia

holds no external debt, and government domestic debt is

exceptionally low at just 6.3% of GDP in 2011, down from 9.9% of

GDP in 2010.

Saudi Arabia: Money supply & credit growth


Saudi Arabia: Inflation


Saudi Arabia: SAMA’s NFAs


-5

0

5

10

15

20

Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11%

y/y

M4 (incl. govt deposits)Private sector creditM3 (excl. govt deposits)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14


% y

/y

CPI Housing Food

0

100

200

300

400

500

600


US

D b

n


Qatar

Hydrocarbon growth to stall in 2012

We estimate 2011 GDP growth of 17.9%, slightly lower than

the IMF’s latest projection of 19% growth. This phenomenal

growth rate is largely due to increased production of LNG as new

capacity came online in early 2011. Going forward however, LNG

production is expected to stabilize, and growth will depend on the

non-hydrocarbon sector. Consequently, we expect real GDP

growth of just 7.1% in 2012.

Budget likely to record a surplus, despite increased government spending

As in other GCC states, government spending will be a key

contributor to non-hydrocarbon growth in Qatar this year.

Aside from generous public sector wage increases, which were

announced in September 2011, the government is expected to

push ahead with an ambitious infrastructure program, including

construction of roads, railways, ports and airports. Projects

specifically related to the 2022 FIFA World Cup are unlikely to

commence before 2015.

Despite spending an extra QAR 30bn this fiscal year on public

sector wage increases and one-off bonuses, we expect the

budget to post a surplus of almost 7% of GDP in 2011/12. We

expect the budget surplus to remain at this level in FY 2012/13,

even as government infrastructure spending continues to rise.

Monetary policy to remain accomodative

Credit growth has accelerated in 2011, thanks to both lower

interest rates and increased demand for credit. Public sector

borrowing has soared in 2H 11, reaching 28.6% y/y in November

from just 0.8% y/y in May 2011. Private sector credit growth has

also recovered strongly in 2011, rising to 22.4% y/y in November

2011.

The main beneficiary of this increased private sector credit

has been the real estate sector, which saw credit expand 50%

y/y on average in 2011, albeit after a contraction in 2010. General

trade, services, consumption and industry also saw double digit

credit growth in 2011. Demand for credit is likely to remain strong

as infrastructure projects get underway, although we expect the

pace of credit growth to slow in 2012 off a high annual base.

Two interest rate cuts by the QCB have also contributed to

slower deposit growth since August, as QAR rates were

brought closer to USD rates. The decline was particularly marked

in non-resident deposits, which contracted -42% y/y in November

2011. However, public sector deposit growth has remained

healthy, compensating for the slower growth in private sector

deposits and supporting overall liquidity in the domestic banking

system.

Qatar: GDP growth

Source: Bloomberg, as at 27 November 2011

Qatar: Key planned infrastructure projects

Source: Reuters, Emirates NBD Research

Qatar: Budget balance


17.7

12.0

16.2

17.9

7.1

0

5

10

15

20

2008 2009 2010 2011e 2012f

% y

/y

10.0

15.2

7.86.8 6.7

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

2008 2009 2010 2011e 2012f

% G

DP


Inflation is still benign

Despite the increase in public spending and strong credit growth,

inflation in Qatar has been relatively muted, thanks to an

oversupply of residential real estate. We expect inflation

averaged 2% in 2011, as declining housing costs offset rising

food and services costs.

Looking ahead, we expect inflation to rise to 3.5% in 2012 as a

result of public spending, wage growth and credit growth.

However, these inflationary pressures are likely to be offset to

some extent by a weak real estate sector, a strong USD and

easing global food inflation.

External debt is high

We expect that Qatar’s current account surplus rose to 25% of

GDP in 2011, up from 15.2% of GDP in 2010, on the back of

increased LNG volumes and prices, as well as higher oil prices.

The volume of Qatar’s oil output was broadly stable in 2011, in

contrast to sharply higher oil production in the other three GCC oil

exporters.

However, the official data shows that gross FX reserves almost

halved in 2011, suggesting outflows on the capital and financial

accounts of the balance of payments.

Qatar’s external debt is relatively high by regional standards;

we estimate it at USD 110bn at the end of 2011, or 60.5% of GDP.

However, much of this borrowing was used to finance LNG

infrastructure and will generate export revenues over the long-

term.

Although most of the planned infrastructure spending could be

financed through budget revenues, we expect Qatar will issue

external debt again in 2012, as it seeks to develop a benchmark

yield curve.

Qatar: Bank deposit growth


Qatar: Bank loan growth

Source: Qatar Central Bank, Emirates NBD Research

Qatar: External debt

Source: IMF, Qatar Central Bank, Emirates NBD Research

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70


% y

/y

Total customer depositsPublic sector Private sector

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11

% y

/y

Total Domestic credit

Public Sectors

Private sector

46.1

79.5 78.3

60.5 62.5

0

20

40

60

80

100

2008 2009 2010 2011e 2012f

% G

DP


Kuwait

Growth hampered by political developments

Kuwait’s growth has lagged that of other GCC states over the last

few years, as the lack of consensus between parliament and the

government has hampered Kuwait’s ability to push ahead with

necessary infrastructure development. Although the authorities

approved a USD 100bn four-year development plan in 2010,

tensions between the parliament and the government resurfaced in

2011, and little progress has been made on implementation.

Politics is likely to remain the dominant issue in Q1 2012, with

parliamentary elections scheduled for 2 February, and a new

government formed thereafter.

We expect Kuwait’s GDP growth accelerated to 5% in 2011,

largely on the back of higher oil output, as was the case in Saudi

Arabia and the UAE. However, oil production in Kuwait is likely to

stabilize in 2012 as OPEC adjusts to higher Libyan oil production.

Non-oil growth will depend on how quickly and effectively the new

government and parliament can push ahead with the economic

agenda from Q2. At this stage, we think Kuwait’s overall GDP

growth could slow to 3.6% this year.

Budget surplus likely to remain substantial

The 2010/11 budget recorded a surplus of 24% of GDP,

according to our estimates, despite a substantial increase in

subsidies in Q1 11 which had been unbudgeted. We expect the

budget surplus to widen to almost 29% of GDP in FY2011/ 12, on

the back of higher oil revenues year-to-date as well as lower than

planned expenditure. Just 36% of the budget has been disbursed

so far in the current fiscal year (1 April to 30 Nov 2011).

Looking ahead to FY 2013, we expect the surplus to narrow

slightly to a still substantial 26.5% of GDP, even after assuming

a 10% rise in government spending.

Inflation is sticky downwards

Average inflation 2011 likely reached 4.8% in 2011, one of the

highest inflation rates in the GCC. Food prices have been a key

driver of inflation, followed by housing. With global food prices

moderating, and the USD likely to remain strong through this year,

we expect inflation in Kuwait to ease to around 4% in 2012.

Credit growth remains weak, liquidity improves

As banks in Kuwait have sought to repair their balance sheets

following the financial crisis, credit growth to the private sector has

remained weak. As in the UAE, we expect only a gradual

improvement on this front in 2012. However, liquidity in the

banking system appears to be improving, with M2 growing at 9.2%

y/y in November 2011.

Kuwait: GDP growth


Kuwait: Budget balance


Kuwait: Money supply and credit growth


6.0

-6.1

3.3

5.0

3.6

-10

-5

0

5

10

2008 2009 2010 2011e 2012f

% y

/y

6.9

21.1

24.0

28.826.5

0

10

20

30

40

2008 2009 2010 2011e 2012f

% G

DP

0

2

4

6

8

10

12


% y

/y

M2 Private sector credit


Oman

Growth likely to slow to 4.5% in 2012

We have revised up forecast real GDP growth to 5% in 2011,

from 4.1% previously, on the back of higher non-oil growth

estimates by the IMF. Non-oil growth has benefitted from higher

public spending, which is expected to continue over the medium

term as the government implements an ambitious investment

program that includes the energy sector, transport, utilities and

tourist infrastructure projects.

Oman’s oil output is estimated to have risen by around 2.5%

last year (Energy Intelligence estimates, via Bloomberg), less than

the 4% growth that authorities had been aiming for. Consequently,

we expect Oman, which is not an OPEC member, to continue

increasing its oil output in 2012, although perhaps at a slower

pace. We note that most of Oman’s oil is exported to China, and

that the country is thus more vulnerable to slower Asian growth

than to a recession in Europe. Overall, we expect growth to slow

slightly to 4.5% in 2012.

Spending rises to tackle unemployment

In addition to infrastructure investment, and in line with other GCC

states, the authorities boosted current spending in the form of

wages and subsidies in Q1 2011. 44,000 new jobs were created

in the government sector in a bid to tackle high unemployment,

which reportedly reached 24.4% among nationals in 2010. The

IMF estimates that 45,000 new jobs will be needed every year to

absorb new entrants to the labour market and reduce

unemployment.

Despite the unbudgeted extra social and wage spending in 2011,

we still expect the budget recorded a surplus of 8.7% of GDP last

year, thanks to higher oil prices as well as increased output.

Oman will also receive around USD 1bn per annum in aid from

other GCC states to help finance infrastructure and housing.

Taking this into account, we expect the budget surplus to

narrow to 5.3% of GDP this year.

Financial indicators are encouraging

Average inflation is likely to have reached 4.1% in 2011, up from

3.2% in 2010, with food prices being the main culprit. This

pressure should moderate in 2012, and we expect average

inflation to ease to 3.8% in 2012.

Money supply and credit growth have expanded in 2011, as oil

receipts have contributed to greater liquidity. Money supply growth

accelerated to 17.5% y/y in October, although we expect this to

have eased to around 15.5% by end-2011. Private sector credit

growth has also picked up, reaching 10.9% y/y in October, and we

expect it to have reached 13% by end-2011. Both money supply

and credit growth are likely to moderate by end-2012, off the high

annual base.

Oman: GDP growth


Oman: Budget balance


Oman: Money supply and credit growth


12.8

1.1

4.05.0

4.5

0

5

10

15

2008 2009 2010 2011e 2012f

% y

/y

13.1

3.9

8.3 8.7

5.3

0

5

10

15

2008 2009 2010 2011e 2012f

% G

DP

0

4

8

12

16

20


% y

/y

M2 Private sector credit


Bahrain

Growth bucks the GCC trend

Bahrain was the only GCC country that saw growth slow in

2011 on the back of political upheaval in the first quarter, and the

fact that oil accounts for only a relatively small proportion of its

economy – just 13% of real GDP in 2010 – compared with other

GCC states.

Real growth averaged just 1.8% in the first 9 months of the year,

compared to 4.9% in the same period 2010. We expect real GDP

growth of 2.2% in 2011, down from 4.7% the previous year.

Provided the political environment remains largely stable, we

expect Bahrain to continue the recovery started in 2H 11, and we

expect growth to rise to 3.3% in 2012.

Government spending to underpin growth

Although Bahrain’s oil production is not a key driver of growth, it is

still the main source of government revenue, and higher oil prices

in 2011 have helped to boost the coffers. In addition, Bahrain (like

Oman) has been promised USD 1bn per year in aid from the other

GCC states for the next 10 years, to help finance infrastructure

investment.

Spending in Bahrain rose sharply in 2011, as the government

announced a substantial one-off cash transfer of USD2650 to each

household, as well as other allowances and subsidies in a bid to

help quell opposition to the government in Q1. Public sector

employment also rose. Nevertheless, we still expect the budget

posted a surplus of 5.4% of GDP last year.

In 2012, we expect current spending to remain high, and the

surplus to narrow to just 3.2% of GDP.

Inflation falls to zero in 2011

One of the consequences of the upheaval and economic

contraction in Q1 2011 was a sharp decline in housing costs,

which fell more than 14% y/y in March. As housing accounts for

almost 24% of the total CPI, this effectively pushed the headline

reading into deflation. We expect average inflation in 2011 to be

zero, rising to 2.5% in 2012.

Money and credit growth recovered in 2H11

Unsurprisingly, money supply growth slowed sharply in 1H 11 but

appears to have improved in Q3. We expect M3 growth to have

reached 5.4% y/y by end-2011, accelerating to 6.2% y/y by end-

2012.

Private sector credit growth has recovered well in 2H 11 and we

expect it to have reached 14.5% y/y by end-2011, slowing to 6.5%

in 2012 off the high annual base.

Bahrain: GDP growth


Bahrain: Budget balance


Bahrain: Inflation


6.3

3.1

4.5

2.2

3.3

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

2008 2009 2010 2011e 2012f

% y

/y

7.4

-5.1 -5.3

5.4

3.2

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

2008 2009 2010 2011e 2012f

% G

DP

-16

-12

-8

-4

0

4


% y

/y

Headline CPI

Housing


Key Economic Forecasts: UAE

National Income 2008 2009 2010 2011e 2012f

Nominal GDP (AED bn) 1156.3 992.8 1093.1 1263.2 1290.3

Nominal GDP (USD bn) 315.1 270.5 297.9 344.2 351.6

GDP per capita (USD) 66120 53399 55359 60351 58156

Real GDP Growth (% y/y) 3.3 -1.6 1.4 4.6 2.5

Monetary Indicators (% y/y)

M2 19.2 9.8 6.2 4.5 5.0

Private sector credit 49.3 0.3 0.6 3.5 2.0

CPI (average) 12.3 1.6 0.9 1.0 1.3

External Accounts (USD bn)

Exports 240.1 192.3 221.8 261.1 263.8

o/w hydrocarbons 102.9 68.2 77.5 109.6 106.4

Imports 176.3 149.7 158.3 174.1 182.8

Trade balance 63.8 42.6 63.5 87.0 81.0

% GDP 20.3 15.7 21.3 25.3 23.0

Current account balance 23.3 8.3 24.2 48.5 41.5

% GDP 7.4 3.1 8.1 14.1 11.8

Fiscal Indicators (% GDP)

Consolidated budget balance 16.2 -13.1 -2.1 2.1 -0.6

Revenue 38.6 25.3 28.8 30.7 29.5

Expenditure 22.5 38.4 31.0 28.5 30.1



Key Economic Forecasts: Saudi Arabia


Nominal GDP (SAR bn) 1786.1 1412.6 1679.1 2137.0 2204.0



Real GDP Growth (% y/y) 4.2 0.1 4.1 6.8 3.8

Hydrocarbon 4.2 -7.8 2.2 4.6 -5.0

Non- hydrocarbon 4.3 3.5 4.9 7.8 4.8


M2 17.6 10.7 5.0 11.7 8.6


CPI (average) 9.9 5.1 5.4 4.9 4.8


Exports 313.4 192.2 251.0 343.2 337.1

o/w hydrocarbons 281.0 163.1 215.2 302.4 292.2

Imports 100.6 86.4 96.7 98.7 118.4

Trade balance 212.7 105.8 154.4 244.5 218.7

% GDP 44.7 28.1 34.5 42.9 37.2


% GDP 27.8 5.6 14.9 28.0 21.6

SAMA's Net foreign Assets 437.9 405.3 440.4


Consolidated budget balance 32.5 -6.1 5.2 14.3 11.0

Revenue 61.6 36.1 44.2 51.9 47.3

Expenditure 29.1 42.2 38.9 37.6 36.3

Public debt 13.2 15.9 9.9 6.3

Source: Haver Analytic, Emirates NBD Research


Key Economic Forecasts: Qatar


Nominal GDP (QAR bn) 419.6 356.0 463.5 662.0 703.3




Hydrocarbon 13.2 4.5 24.0 28.5 5.0

Non- hydrocarbon 21.3 17.6 11.0 10.0 9.0


M2 19.7 16.9 23.1 21.5 14.6


CPI (average) 15.2 -4.9 3.5 2.0 3.5


Exports 64.4 49.0 62.8 92.6 97.7

o/w hydrocarbons 58.9 44.4 56.3 84.8 88.6

Imports 25.1 22.5 25.4 28.9 32.6

Trade balance 39.3 26.6 37.5 63.7 65.1

% GDP 34.1 27.2 29.4 35.0 33.7


% GDP 28.7 12.4 15.2 24.5 23.4

Total external debt 53.1 77.7 99.7 110.1 120.8

% GDP 46.1 79.5 78.3 60.5 62.5


Consolidated budget balance 10.0 15.2 7.8 6.8 6.7

Revenue 33.6 47.5 38.5 33.4 33.8

Expenditure 23.6 32.3 30.7 26.6 27.1



Key Economic Forecasts: Kuwait


Nominal GDP (KWD bn) 39.6 30.5 35.6 45.6 47.3



Real GDP Growth (% y/y) 6.0 -6.1 3.3 5.0 3.6


M2 15.9 13.2 3.0 9.0 7.6

Private sector credit 16.6 6.2 1.9 2.5 3

CPI (average) 10.6 4.0 4.0 4.8 4.0


Exports 86.9 51.7 67.0 97.7 98.2

o/w hydrocarbons 82.6 46.6 61.7 90.8 90.9

Imports 22.9 17.3 19.1 23.8 29.8

Trade balance 64.0 34.4 47.9 73.9 68.5

% GDP 43.4 32.5 38.5 44.9 40.0


% GDP 40.9 24.3 29.6 39.3 34.0



Revenue 53.0 58.0 58.7 60.0 59.6

Expenditure 46.1 36.9 34.7 31.2 33.0



Key Economic Forecasts: Oman


Nominal GDP (OMR bn) 23.3 18.0 22.2 27.6 28.8





M2 23.1 4.7 11.3 15.5 8.3


CPI (average) 12.5 3.7 3.2 4.1 3.8


Exports 37.8 27.7 36.6 44.1 45.7

o/w hydrocarbons 28.7 18.1 25.3 34.4 35.2

Imports 20.7 16.1 17.9 20.6 22.6

Trade balance 17.0 11.6 18.8 23.5 23.0

% GDP 28.2 24.8 32.5 32.8 30.8

Current account balance 5.0 -0.6 5.1 9.0 8.5

% GDP 8.3 -1.3 8.8 12.6 11.4



Revenue 45.6 41.1 40.4 42.0 40.5

Expenditure 32.5 37.2 32.1 33.3 35.1



Key Economic Forecasts: Bahrain


Nominal GDP (BHD bn) 8.33 7.36 8.63 9.51 9.82





M2 20.8 4.5 12.4 5.4 6.2

Private sector credit 43.6 -0.7 8.3 14.5 6.5

CPI (average) 3.5 2.8 2.0 0.0 2.5


Exports 17.3 11.9 13.6 17.6 17.8

o/w hydrocarbons 13.8 8.9 10.2 14.1 14.0

Imports 14.2 9.6 11.2 13.3 13.9

Trade balance 3.1 2.3 2.5 4.3 3.8

% GDP 13.9 11.5 10.7 17.1 14.7


% GDP 10.2 2.9 3.4 3.9 5.0


Consolidated budget balance 7.4 -5.1 -5.3 5.4 3.2

Revenue 32.1 23.2 25.2 59.2 58.3

Expenditure 24.7 28.3 30.5 53.8 55.1



Disclaimer

PLEASE READ THE FOLLOWING TERMS AND CONDITIONS OF ACCESS FOR THE PUBLICATION BEFORE THE USE THEREOF. By continuing to access and use the

publication, you signify you accept these terms and conditions. Emirates NBD reserves the right to amend, remove, or add to the publication and Disclaimer at any time. Such

modifications shall be effective immediately. Accordingly, please continue to review this Disclaimer whenever accessing, or using the publication. Your access of, and use of the

publication, after modifications to the Disclaimer will constitute your acceptance of the terms and conditions of use of the publication, as modified. If, at any time, you do not wish

to accept the content of this Disclaimer, you may not access, or use the publication. Any terms and conditions proposed by you which are in addition to or which conflict with this

Disclaimer are expressly rejected by Emirates NBD and shall be of no force or effect. Information contained herein is believed by Emirates NBD to be accurate and true but

Emirates NBD expresses no representation or warranty of such accuracy and accepts no responsibility whatsoever for any loss or damage caused by any act or omission taken

as a result of the information contained in the publication. The publication is provided for informational uses only and is not intended for trading purposes. Charts, graphs and

related data/information provided herein are intended to serve for illustrative purposes. The data/information contained in the publication is not designed to initiate or conclude any

transaction. In addition, the data/information contained in the publication is prepared as of a particular date and time and will not reflect subsequent changes in the market or

changes in any other factors relevant to their determination. The publication may include data/information taken from stock exchanges and other sources from around the world

and Emirates NBD does not guarantee the sequence, accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of information contained in the publication provided thereto by or obtained from

unaffiliated third parties. Moreover, the provision of certain data/information in the publication may be subject to the terms and conditions of other agreements to which Emirates

NBD is a party.

None of the content in the publication constitutes a solicitation, offer or recommendation by Emirates NBD to buy or sell any security, or represents the provision by Emirates NBD

of investment advice or services regarding the profitability or suitability of any security or investment. Moreover, the content of the publication should not be considered legal, tax,

accounting advice. The publication is not intended for use by, or distribution to, any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such use or distribution would be contrary

to law or regulation. Accordingly, anything to the contrary herein set forth notwithstanding, Emirates NBD, its suppliers, agents, directors, officers, employees, representatives,

successors, assigns, affiliates or subsidiaries shall not, directly or indirectly, be liable, in any way, to you or any other person for any: (a) inaccuracies or errors in or omissions

from the publication including, but not limited to, quotes and financial data; (b) loss or damage arising from the use of the publication, including, but not limited to any investment

decision occasioned thereby. (c) UNDER NO CIRCUMSTANCES, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO NEGLIGENCE, SHALL EMIRATES NBD, ITS SUPPLIERS, AGENTS,

DIRECTORS, OFFICERS, EMPLOYEES, REPRESENTATIVES, SUCCESSORS, ASSIGNS, AFFILIATES OR SUBSIDIARIES BE LIABLE TO YOU FOR DIRECT, INDIRECT,

INCIDENTAL, CONSEQUENTIAL, SPECIAL, PUNITIVE, OR EXEMPLARY DAMAGES EVEN IF EMIRATES NBD HAS BEEN ADVISED SPECIFICALLY OF THE POSSIBILITY

OF SUCH DAMAGES, ARISING FROM THE USE OF THE PUBLICATION, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO, LOSS OF REVENUE, OPPORTUNITY, OR ANTICIPATED

PROFITS OR LOST BUSINESS. The information contained in the publication does not purport to contain all matters relevant to any particular investment or financial instrument

and all statements as to future matters are not guaranteed to be accurate. Anyone proposing to rely on or use the information contained in the publication should independently

verify and check the accuracy, completeness, reliability and suitability of the information and should obtain independent and specific advice from appropriate professionals or

experts regarding information contained in the publication. Further, references to any financial instrument or investment product is not intended to imply that an actual trading

market exists for such instrument or product. In publishing this document Emirates NBD is not acting in the capacity of a fiduciary or financial advisor.

Emirates NBD and its group entities (together and separately, "Emirates NBD") does and may at any time solicit or provide commercial banking, investment banking, credit,

advisory or other services to the companies covered in its reports. As a result, recipients of this report should be aware that any or all of the foregoing services may at times give

rise to a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.

The securities covered by this report may not be suitable for all types of investors. The report does not take into account the investment objectives, financial situations and specific

needs of recipients.

Data included in the publication may rely on models that do not reflect or take into account all potentially significant factors such as market risk, liquidity risk and credit risk.

Emirates NBD may use different models, make valuation adjustments, or use different methodologies when determining prices at which Emirates NBD is willing to trade financial

instruments and/or when valuing its own inventory positions for its books and records. In receiving the publication, you acknowledge and agree that there are risks associated with

investment activities. Moreover, you acknowledge in receiving the publication that the responsibility to obtain and carefully read and understand the content of documents relating

to any investment activity described in the publication and to seek separate, independent financial advice if required to assess whether a particular investment activity described

herein is suitable, lies exclusively with you. You acknowledge and agree that past investment performance is not indicative of the future performance results of any investment and

that the information contained herein is not to be used as an indication for the future performance of any investment activity. You acknowledge that the publication has been

developed, compiled, prepared, revised, selected, and arranged by Emirates NBD and others (including certain other information sources) through the application of methods and

standards of judgment developed and applied through the expenditure of substantial time, effort, and money and constitutes valuable intellectual property of Emirates NBD and

such others. All present and future rights in and to trade secrets, patents, copyrights, trademarks, service marks, know-how, and other proprietary rights of any type under the

laws of any governmental authority, domestic or foreign, shall, as between you and Emirates NBD, at all times be and remain the sole and exclusive property of Emirates NBD

and/or other lawful parties. Except as specifically permitted in writing, you acknowledge and agree that you may not copy or make any use of the content of the publication or any

portion thereof. Except as specifically permitted in writing, you shall not use the intellectual property rights connected with the publication, or the names of any individual

participant in, or contributor to, the content of the publication, or any variations or derivatives thereof, for any purpose.

YOU AGREE TO USE THE PUBLICATION SOLELY FOR YOUR OWN NONCOMMERCIAL USE AND BENEFIT, AND NOT FOR RESALE OR OTHER TRANSFER OR

DISPOSITION TO, OR USE BY OR FOR THE BENEFIT OF, ANY OTHER PERSON OR ENTITY. YOU AGREE NOT TO USE, TRANSFER, DISTRIBUTE, OR DISPOSE OF

ANY DATA/INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THE PUBLICATION IN ANY MANNER THAT COULD COMPETE WITH THE BUSINESS INTERESTS OF EMIRATES NBD. YOU

MAY NOT COPY, REPRODUCE, PUBLISH, DISPLAY, MODIFY, OR CREATE DERIVATIVE WORKS FROM ANY DATA/INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THE PUBLICATION.

YOU MAY NOT OFFER ANY PART OF THE PUBLICATION FOR SALE OR DISTRIBUTE IT OVER ANY MEDIUM WITHOUT THE PRIOR WRITTEN CONSENT OF EMIRATES

NBD. THE DATA/INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THE PUBLICATION MAY NOT BE USED TO CONSTRUCT A DATABASE OF ANY KIND. YOU MAY NOT USE THE

DATA/INFORMATION IN THE PUBLICATION IN ANY WAY TO IMPROVE THE QUALITY OF ANY DATA SOLD OR CONTRIBUTED TO BY YOU TO ANY THIRD PARTY.

FURTHERMORE, YOU MAY NOT USE ANY OF THE TRADEMARKS, TRADE NAMES, SERVICE MARKS, COPYRIGHTS, OR LOGOS OF EMIRATES NBD OR ITS

SUBSIDIARIES IN ANY MANNER WHICH CREATES THE IMPRESSION THAT SUCH ITEMS BELONG TO OR ARE ASSOCIATED WITH YOU OR, EXCEPT AS OTHERWISE

PROVIDED WITH EMIRATES NBD’S PRIOR WRITTEN CONSENT, AND YOU ACKNOWLEDGE THAT YOU HAVE NO OWNERSHIP RIGHTS IN AND TO ANY OF SUCH

ITEMS. MOREOVER YOU AGREE THAT YOUR USE OF THE PUBLICATION IS AT YOUR SOLE RISK AND ACKNOWLEDGE THAT THE PUBLICATION AND ANYTHING

CONTAINED HEREIN, IS PROVIDED "AS IS" AND "AS AVAILABLE," AND THAT EMIRATES NBD MAKES NO WARRANTY OF ANY KIND, EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, AS TO

THE PUBLICATION, INCLUDING, BUT NOT LIMITED TO, MERCHANTABILITY, NON-INFRINGEMENT, TITLE, OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR USE. You

agree, at your own expense, to indemnify, defend and hold harmless Emirates NBD, its Suppliers, agents, directors, officers, employees, representatives, successors, and

assigns from and against any and all claims, damages, liabilities, costs, and expenses, including reasonable attorneys’ and experts’ fees, arising out of or in connection with the

publication, including, but not limited to: (i) your use of the data contained in the publication or someone using such data on your behalf; (ii) any deletions, additions, insertions or

alterations to, or any unauthorized use of, the data contained in the publication or (iii) any misrepresentation or breach of an acknowledgement or agreement made as a result of

your receiving the publication.


Emirates NBD Research & Treasury Contact List

Emirates NBD Head Office 12th Floor Baniyas Road, Deira P.O Box 777 Dubai

Tim Fox

Head of Research & Chief Economist +971 4 230 7800 [email protected]

Research

Khatija Haque

Senior Economist +971 4 230 7801 [email protected]

Nick Stadtmiller

Head of Fixed Income Research +971 4 230 7804 [email protected]

Aditya Pugalia

Research Analyst +971 4 230 7802 [email protected]

Irfan Ellam

Head of MENA Equity Research +971 4 230 7807 [email protected]

Sales & Structuring

Head of Sales & Structuring

Sajjid Sadiq Sayed +971 4 230 7777 [email protected]

Saudi Arabia Sales Numair Attiyah

+966 1 282 5625 [email protected]

Singapore Sales Supriyakumar Sakhalkar


Group Corporate Communications

Ibrahim Sowaidan


Claire Andrea


GCC Outlook 2012 - Emirates NBD...Page 3 Research from Emirates NBD Overview The GCC economies...

Documents

Transcript of GCC Outlook 2012 - Emirates NBD...Page 3 Research from Emirates NBD Overview The GCC economies...