Gas Monetization via Methanol & Gas-to-Gasoline (G2G™) … · 2016-11-10 · • Investment cost...
Transcript of Gas Monetization via Methanol & Gas-to-Gasoline (G2G™) … · 2016-11-10 · • Investment cost...
2016GSTC. Non-Confidential Information. Modifications or reuse not permitted without prior authorization.
Gas Monetization via Methanol & Gas-to-Gasoline (G2G™) TechnologiesSiva Ariyapadi, Air Liquide Global E&C Solutions
2016 GSTC Conference, Vancouver, Canada
2016GSTC. Non-Confidential Information. Modifications or reuse not permitted without prior authorization.
Methanol Market Drivers
Leadership in Methanol – Lurgi MegaMethanol™
Recent Projects & Synergies with Industrial Gas Supply
Gas-to-Gasoline (G2G™) Technology Approach
G2G™ Plant Economics & Integration Benefits
Technology Integration & Benefits
Outline
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Feedstock Opportunities for Methanol & G2G™
Advantaged Feedstock
Advantaged Feedstock
Industry Modernization
Coal based development
Environmentprotection
Advantaged Feedstock
Coal based development
Demand for Distillates and
Oxygenates
Future Gas Development
Future Gas Development
Niche opportunities for Coal development
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Options for gas monetization
• Lower CAPEX• Limited to regional demand / transmission constraints• Upside for product value generally limited
• Suitable to monetize larger volumes of gas• Extensive gas treatment, high capital intensity• Logistics / plant location key for development
• Moderate capital intensity, shorter project development• Single product produced, e.g. Methanol or Gasoline• Logistics / off-take requirement (regional and global)
• High value products• High capital intensity, development time / schedule• Management of multiple co-products
Power
LNG
GTL
Methanol and Derivates
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• Capital recovery is based on a simple 5-yr payback (no debt financing considered)
• Methanol Sales price at plant gate ~ $300 to $400/t
• Investment cost based on a 5,000 metric tons per day (mtpd) Methanol Plant in the US Gulf Coast
Methanol: Robust Economics ~ Advantaged NG
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$2.0 $3.0 $4.0
Per MT of Methanol
NG Price, USD per MMBTU - HHV
Margin
Capital Recovery
O&M
OpEx
Natural Gas
Price volatility
Methanol price historically correlates with crude, impacts margins
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55+ Plants licensed since 1969 (40 mtpy)
• Multiple new MegaMethanol™ units in the last 18 months
• 17 Oxygen reforming plants (20 mtpy)
• 14 MegaMethanol plants (24 mtpy)
• 21 Plants licensed since 2001 (29 mtpy)
63%
31%
6%Natural Gas(33 plants)
Coal(11 plants)
Others(11 plants)
Based on installed capacity
Air Liquide Lurgi Methanol Technology
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Lurgi MegaMethanol™- low overall lifecycle cost
Combined
Reforming
Large syngascapacities
enabled through oxygen
technology
Two-stage synthesis
reactor system
Small syngas / recycle
compressors
Low natural gas consumption
Minimized investment cost
Lurgi Reformer™ (SMR)
Autothermal Reformer (ATR)
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2001 2002 2004 2005 2014 2015
Zagros 1, South Caspian
■ 1.75 mil tpa
■ NG based
Atlas MeOH, Trinidad
■ 1.75 mil tpa
■ NG based
Methanex, Chile
■ 800 ktpa
■ NG based
Zagros 2, South Caspian
■ 1.75 mil tpa
■ NG based
Petronas, Malaysia
■ 1.75 mil tpa
■ NG based
Methanol Severny,
Russia
■ 1.75 mil tpa
■ NG based
KML, Kazakhstan
■ 825 ktpa
■ NG based
OCI, TX, USA
■ 1.75 mil tpa
■ EP Package
Zeogas, TX, USA
■ 1.75 mil tpa
■ Integration into
Gasoline
YCI, LA, USA
■ 1.75 mil tpa
■ EP Package
BASF, TX, USA
■ 1.75 mil tpa
■ Integration into
Propylene
- Additional 5+ MegaMethanol plants in China (coal based- 2006-2013)
Recent Methanol Plant References
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Large Industries - Synergies & Global Network
Large volumes of industrial gases and energy solutions
Large on-site plants and pipeline networks
Long-term contracts with customers
2016GSTC. Non-Confidential Information. Modifications or reuse not permitted without prior authorization.
Northern Europe NetworksFrance - Belgium - Netherlands
USAGulf Coast
Mississippi River
CanadaHamilton
FranceNormandy
Feyzin
Fos-Lavéra
Richemond
ItalyGenova - Padova
Thailand Map-Tha-
Phut
Singapore
IndonesiaMerak
ChinaCaojing
KoreaYochon
GermanyRuhr
Kuwait
Qatar
Oman
BrazilPaulinia
ArgentinaBahia Blanca
Ensenada
San Nicolàs
Americas ≈ 3 000 kmAsia ≈ 250 km
Benelux ≈ 2 300 km
France ≈ 1 600 km
Italy ≈ 600 km
Germany ≈ 470 km
Spain ≈ 30 km
Large Industries Pipeline Network > 8500 km
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Recent Examples - Methanol + ASU OTF
Optimized solutions
Methanol & ASU
OCI
YCI
Over the Fence
Optimized solutions
MegaMethanol™ licensed
technology
Oxygen OTF contracts
New Air Separation Units linked
to existing pipeline infrastructure
Gas-to-Gasoline (G2G™) Technology
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Gas-to-Gasoline Technology Approach
Referenced technologies - Costs and performance well understood
Two proven technologies, one competitive solution
13
Natural
gasMethanol
Gasoline
LPG
51 plants built
9 plants of the same size
and technology in operation
2 plants operated:
• New Zealand 14,500 bbl/d (1985-97)
• JAMG China 2,500 bbl/d (2009)
2nd JAMG plant (2 x12,500 bbl/d) under
construction
Feedstock options for G2G™
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Technology Summary, Methanol & MTG
Natural Gas
Lurgi
Syngas
Plant
Air Liquide Technologies
ExxonMobil Technologies
Lurgi
Methanol
Plant
MTG
Plant
ASU
Off sites and Utilities (common)
151.9 MMSCFD
5,000 mtpd
Methanol
16,100 bpd
Gasoline
1,009.5 BTU/SCF (HHV)
LPG
(internally
consumed)
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Energy Scenario – Typical for Feedstock (NG)
advantaged regions
Natural Gas (NG) vs. Oil Products spread maintained despite lower oil price
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A Case for two (Feedstock Advantaged) regions
Gasoline surplus continues to rise
through 2025, while demand
declines. However, pockets of
regional deficits exist
The US Gulf Coast has been the
growth engine for the recent boom
in distillate exports to Latin America
and other regions
8.8million b/d
demand
134refineries
Source: Wood Mackenzie
Gasoline surplus continues to rise through
2025, while demand declines by 0.5%
annually. Regional deficits + strong
demand from neighboring regions
Russian gasoline key to meet the needs of
the region and potential Asian markets
0.8million b/d
demand
75refineries
G2G™ presents a simpler option to transform gas in areas with gasoline demand
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G2G™ Financial Model - Level 1 Analysis
G2G™ Plant1,2,3
Natural Gas
Common Offsite
& Utilities
Power0 MW
Gasoline
1) Based on 5,000 mtpd methanol equivalent facility
2) All offsite and utilities included
3) No power import expected during normal operation
• USGC based set-up
Raw Water~3,000 GPM
151.9 MMSCFD
1,009.5 BTU/SCF (HHV)
LPG by-product consumed in
the process
16,100 bpd
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Level 1 G2G™ Economics – Base Case
• Variable costs include consumables such as catalysts and raw water
• Fixed costs include estimated fixed labor and annual maintenance
• CAPEX excludes items such as owners costs and contingencies, product storage costs, taxes & insurance
0.09
0.68
0.07
0.34
$1.19
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
1
$/g
all
on
ga
so
lin
e
Depreciation
Variable Cost
Feedstock (NG)
Fixed Cost
Gasoline : $2.67/gal
(Crude*: $100/bbl )
Gasoline : $2.19/gal
(Crude *: $80/bbl )
Gasoline : $1.71/gal
(Crude*: $60/bbl )Mar
gin
Pro
du
ctio
nC
ost
+
Dep
reci
atio
n
Break-even at $38/bbl Crude*
CAPEX: Base (US Gulf Coast)
NG : $3/ MMBTU (HHV)
Wholesale Gasoline*: Crude + $12/bbl
Scope: ISBL + OSBL units
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Level 1 G2G™ Economics – Capex Sensitivity
•Variable costs include consumables such as catalysts and raw water
•Fixed costs include estimated fixed labor and annual maintenance
•CAPEX excludes items such as owners costs and contingencies, product storage costs, taxes & insurance
$0.09
$0.68
$0.07
$0.43
$1.28
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
1
$/g
all
on
ga
so
lin
e
Depreciation
Variable Cost
Feedstock (NG)
Fixed Cost
Gasoline : $2.67/gal
(Crude*: $100/bbl )
Gasoline : $2.19/gal
(Crude*: $80/bbl )
Gasoline : $1.71/gal
(Crude*: $60/bbl )Mar
gin
Pro
du
ctio
nC
ost
+
Dep
reci
atio
nM
arg
inP
rod
uct
ion
Co
st +
Dep
reci
atio
n
CAPEX: Base X 1.25 (USGC)
NG : $3/ MMBTU (HHV)
Wholesale Gasoline*: Crude + $12/bbl
Scope: ISBL + OSBL units
Break-even at $42/bbl Crude*
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Natural Gas & Capex Sensitivity
0.620.73
1.07
1.41
1.64
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
0.5 1 2.5 4 5
Pro
du
ctio
n C
ost
+ D
epre
ciat
ion
($/g
al)
Natural Gas Cost ($/MMBTU)
Base Case
0.710.82
1.16
1.501.73
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
0.5 1 2.5 4 5
Pro
du
ctio
n C
ost
+ D
epre
ciat
ion
($/g
al)
Natural Gas Cost ($/MMBTU)
Base Case x 1.25
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Customer/ EPC exposed to single licensor interface
Seamless process design- Closed material balance at an early design stage
Simplified and single-point guarantee concept
Technology integration - upsides to cost, performance
Bankable technologies provided by a world-leading engineering & technology and industrial gas company
G2G™ Integration & Customer benefits
Lurgi
MegaMethanol™
ExxonMobil
MTG
Natural Gas
Coal
Heavy HCs
Gasoline
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Using Technologies to create value
Natural Gas,
Coal
ASU,
Reforming
Gasoline
Methanol
MTG