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Gartner's Top Predictions for 2018 & Beyond:

Pace Yourself for Sanity's Sake

Stephen Lefebvre

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The Next Big Thing …

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The Next Big Thing …

… Is Making the Last Three

Next Big Things Work Right.

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1950

AI

1949

Digital Computers

1941

Information Explosion

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1998

Dot.Com

1999

Web 2.0

1993

eCommerce

1991

The Web

1985

Client/Server

1977

PCs

1997

eBusiness

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2010

Digital Marketing

2008

Blockchain

2001

Big Data

2006

Cloud Computing

Mobile Computing

2003

Social

2011

Digital Business

2013

Machine learning

2014

Bimodal

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2014

Bimodal

IoT

?

The Singularity

2030

Quantum Computing

2016

Micro Services

Serverless

2015

Algorithmic Business

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Top 10 Strategic Predictions for 2018 and Beyond

2021

30%Visual and Voice

Search Drive

Commerce Revenue

2020 202020222020

20202020

5 of 7 Digital

Giants Self-Disrupt

2022

50%Consuming More False Information

Than True

20212021

Search Disruption Blockchain AI

AI Talent AI

Trust

IOT Security

1 BillionCryptocurrency

Value Created

in Banking

Real or

Fake?"Counterfeit Reality"

40%IT Versatility With People-Centric

Roles

50%Bot Development Over Mobile App

Development

2.3M Net New Jobs

Versus 1.8M

Eliminated

HalfIoT Security Spend

on Remediation

95%New Products

Contain IoT

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Goal Start Listen Vary

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Three Things to Consider …

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Generate Revenue and Value

Speed of Change

Trust in Information

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Meeting Goals for

Increasing Revenue

and Value Will Rely

Heavily on Re-engaging

People and Businesses

Through Their Use of

Technology.

Consider This …

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By 2019, more than half of all mobile searches will bevoice or visual searches — mobile visual searches accounting for 20%.

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By 2021, early adopter brands that redesign their websites to support visual- and voice-search will increase digital commerce revenue by 30%.1

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Increase Customer Engagement.

Find Social Starting Points.

Voice/Visual Versus Text Search.

Consumable Brands.

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Near-Term Flag:By 2019, content management systems expose voice/visual tags and metadata.Analysis by: Mike McGuire and Charles S. Golvin

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By 2020, 5 of the Top 7 digital giants will willfully "self-disrupt" to create their next leadership opportunity.2

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Continuous Innovation.

Change Existing Markets.

Scale Through Quantity, Variety and Innovation.

Learn From — Don't Become the Giants.

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Near-Term Flag:By 2019, Virtual Personal Assistant (VPAs) will exist two per kitchenAnalysis by: Daryl C. Plummer

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Incumbency is not a guarantee of success.

Customers' expectationsare changing.

Competition is coming from unexpected places.

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By YE20, the banking industry will derive 1 billion dollars of business value from the use of blockchain-based cryptocurrencies.3

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Cryptocurrency Momentum.

First-Mover Advantage.

5K Cryptocurrency Exchanges and 700 DigitalCash Variants.

Banking Industry Legitimizes Cryptocurrencies.

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Near-Term Flag:By YE18, formal investment regulationswill be available for trading cryptocurrencies.Analysis by: Fabio Chesini, John Lovelock, David Furlonger and Dale Kutnick

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Through 2023, only 10% of enterprises will achieveany radical transformation with blockchain technologies

Reality Check

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Trust in Information Will

Depend on Who You

CHOOSE to LISTEN to

Rather Than on Validity

of Data Sources

Consider This …

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Counterfeit RealityGartner defines "Counterfeit Reality" as the digital creation of images, video, documents, or sounds that

are convincingly realistic representations of things that never occurred or never existed exactly as represented.

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By 2022, the majority of individuals in mature economies will consume more false information than true information.4

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Understand the Appetite for Fake Information.

Confirmation Bias.

Trust Until Distrust or Distrust Until Trust.

Neutral Providers Being Subverted.

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Near-Term Flag:Through 2019, several attempts are madeto detect and label untrue information.Analysis by: Magnus Revang and Whit Andrews

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AI Will Be at the

Heart of Our Most

Trusted Sources

of Truth.

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Real or Fake?

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Through 2021, AI-driven creation of "Counterfeit Reality," or fake, contentwill outpace AI's ability to detect it, fomenting digital distrust.5

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Detect What Is Created.

Detection is Harder than Creation.

Track Social Giants and University Progress.

Over 90% of Top Movie Releases De-aged Actors.

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Near-Term Flag:By 2018, there will be a tenfold increase in commercial projects to detect fake news.Analysis by: Daryl C. Plummer and David McCoy

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Who Will You Talk To?By 2020, the average person will have more conversations with bots than with their spouse.

Remember last year...

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By 2021, more than 50% of enterprises spend more per annum on bots and chatbot creation than traditional mobile app development.6

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Move Beyond Chatbot Exploration.

52% Investigating Chatbots.

Chatbots Are the Face of AI.

Mobile Development Spend Has Decreased.

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Near-Term Flag:By YE18, a handful of transformative botswill emerge that highlight their potential.Analysis by: Adrian Leow

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Consider This …

Speed of Change

Will Require Variability

of Skills and Capabilities

to Address Rising

Challenges

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Multiple Roles in IT Staff

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By 2021, 40% of IT staff will be versatilists, holding multiple roles, most of which will be business-, rather than technology-related. 7

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Versatile IT Leadership and Management.

Scale Through Diversity.

Rotate Multiple Roles.

IT-Business Skills Gap.

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Near-Term Flag:By 2019, IT technical specialist hires will fall by more than 5%. Analysis by: Hank Marquis

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In 2020, AI becomes a positive net job motivator; creating 2.3M jobs while only eliminating 1.8M jobs.8

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Job Growth.

AI Fears of Job Elimination.

Jobs Impact Varies by Industry.

Net Job Change Is Key.

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… is controlling our fear of the path ahead

A necessary part of keeping pace …

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By 2020, IoT technology will be in 95%of electronics for new product designs. 9

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Pervasive IoT.

Prices Dropping.

Commercial and Industrial IoT Experiments.

8.4 Billion Connected Things in Use Today.

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Near-Term Flag:By 2019, smartphone IoT activationwill emerge.Analysis by: Alfonso Velosa and Martin Reynolds

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Through 2022, half of all security budgets for IoT will go to fault remediation, recalls and safety failures rather than protection. 10

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Understand Cost of Remediation.

IoT Security Postures.

Security Spend Versus Safety Recalls.

IoT Growth Outpacing Skills.

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Near-Term Flag:By 2019, IoT security incidents will make the nightly news.Analysis by: Earl Perkins

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Goal Start Listen Vary