GameMaster's Blackjack School (Rough Edit)

8/9/2019 GameMaster's Blackjack School (Rough Edit)

1/83

Created in 1990 and first published

on the Web in 1995, this is

undoubtedly the most respected

and widely-used course of

instruction on how to win at

Blackjack. What you will learn is

how to count the cards, which is

actually very simple, yet it remainsthe primary way to gain an edge

over the casinos. You do not have

to be a graduate of M.I.T. to do this.

And it's all free!

Basic Course - Here you will learn

the proper playing strategy for

every hand, how to count the cards

and how to use the count to vary

the size of your bet according toyour advantage.

Advanced Course - Additional

gains are available from varying

the play of your hand according to

the count. That, and other tricks of

the trade are taught here.


2/83

Welcome to The GameMaster's Blackjack School

A brief introduction.

I am very pleased and proud to announce the opening of our newest GameMaster internet presence... The

GameMaster's Blackjack School. For those who aren't familiar with my "school", this is a series of 24 written

lessons that can teach you how to play a winning game ofBlackjack.

When the state of Missouri legalized casino gaming in 1994, I developed a course of instruction that would show people

how to get an edge over the casino Blackjackgames. This course, which was taught by me at my home, originally cost

$400 and that included all of the training materials, four "classroom" sessions of about 2 hours each, which were spread

out over a four-week period and one playing session where I went to a local casino with my graduates in order to assess

their skills in the heat of battle, so to speak.

In 1995, I was one of the founders ofRolling Good Times Online (rgtonline.com), the Internet's first gambling "E-zine"

and that was when I began converting my course into a series of written lessons for presentation as a free, internet-

based "school". Those lessons have remained pretty much unchanged over the years and have now been licensed to

appear on more than 250 gambling related websites. Many (although not all) of these sites offer our Blackjack School as

a means to convince you that they have "true content to offer" and are not just another banner farm. Be that as it may,

you have now found the original SOURCE. Here...we have gathered together the entire curriculum, expanded and

refined the lessons and added additional resources.

This web site will serve two purposes for our valued readership. One; it will become the repository for the completewritten word forThe GameMaster's Blackjack School. Second; it will serve as a springboard to introduce you to our

Basic Strategy and Card Counting Skills Training: The GameMaster's Blackjack School on DVD.

From the feedback I've received over the years, I know that this course of instruction has helped many people win at the

casinos and that's very gratifying. But at the same time, I'd often get e-mails from people who didn't quite understand

just what I was trying to describe in the lessons. While the World Wide Web allowed me to reach unprecedented

numbers of people from all over, it was still in the form of the "written word" and that has its limitations, both from a

teaching and learning perspective, not to mention language differences. To teach someone a skill through writing alone,

you'd better be a darn good writer, which I'm not and from a learning point of view, the old saying goes something likethis: "I read and I forget; I do and I remember", which applies to both Blackjack and Internet poker, another of my

passions. In keeping with that idea, in 2002 we introduced our newest product...GameMaster's Blackjack School on

DVD.


3/83

Sometimes you just need a place to start.

Blackjack is a game of skill and this is where you can learn the skills it takes to beat the game.

The 24 lessons you see here will take you step-by-step through the process of learning how to play each hand

properly, how to count cards, how and when to properly bet and literally hundreds of other "tricks of the trade".

The course is long, but this is not something you have to learn overnight. Take your time, do what we say and you'll

soon be on your way to playing a winning game of Blackjack. (If you playing blackjack in an online casino, it's good to

know that most reshuffle the deck after each round of play, so some of the techniques we teach here will not apply.)

Start at Lesson 1 and go as far and as fast as you wish. The thrill of winning at casino Blackjack is literally at your

fingertips. You may contact The GameMaster via e-mail and he will personally answer any questions you may have.


4/83

Lesson 1: Basic Strategy

The foundation of winning at Blackjack is to utilize proper basic strategy in playing the hands. "Proper" means

that each decision you make on hitting, standing, doubling or splitting pairs is the correct mathematical play for that

hand. There is no room for intuition, gut feelings or guessing when it comes to basic strategy; you must make the

"percentage" play each time. Even if you've doubled an 11 against a dealer's 10 five times in a row and lost, when that

hand comes up a sixth time you must double. Consistency is a big part of playing a winning game, so resolve right now

that you are going to make the proper play, regardless if the dealer rolls his eyes upward or the other players at the table

groan quietly when you do it. You are there for the money -- there's no other reason to play blackjack -- and the

application of proper basic strategy is going to get that money for you; what others think of your play is not important.

The correct basic strategy for a blackjack game depends upon the rules of the casino where you will be playing.

The strategy which applies to a single deck game in Reno, for example, is quite a bit different than the strategy for an

eight-deck game in Atlantic City. I'm going to show you how to learn the basic strategy of your choice; exactly what that

strategy is will depend on you. To select a basic strategy, go to the "Blackjack Strategy Engine" and simply fill in the

blanks. Once your strategy is computed, print it out.

Here's what that looks like for a fairly common game: Six decks, double on any first two cards, double after splitting

pairs is permitted and the dealer stands on A-6.

Basic Strategy Matrix : for 6 Decks, S17, DA2, DAS, No surrender

Splitting Pairs

Key:

y Y = Yes, split the pairy N = No, don't split the pair

Pairs 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 T A

(A,A) Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y

(T,T) N N N N N N N N N N

(9,9) Y Y Y Y Y N Y Y N N

(8,8) Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y

(7,7) Y Y Y Y Y Y N N N N

(6,6) Y Y Y Y Y N N N N N

(5,5) N N N N N N N N N N

(4,4) N N N Y Y N N N N N




5/83

Soft Totals

Key:

y H = Hity S = Stand

y D = Double; if unable, Hity Ds = Double; if unable, Stand

Hard Totals

Key:

y H = Hity S = Stand

y D = Double; if unable, Hit

Soft Totals 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 T A

(A,9) S S S S S S S S S S

(A,8) S S S S S S S S S S

(A,7) S Ds Ds Ds Ds S S H H H

(A,6) H D D D D H H H H H

(A,5) H H D D D H H H H H

(A,4) H H D D D H H H H H

(A,3) H H H D D H H H H H

(A,2) H H H D D H H H H H

Hard Totals 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 T A

17 S S S S S S S S S S

16 S S S S S H H H H H




12 H H S S S H H H H H

11 D D D D D D D D D H

10 D D D D D D D D H H

9 H D D D D H H H H H

8 H H H H H H H H H H


6/83

This is the chart which you will eventually know as well as your own name -- but don't worry; you're not going to

memorize it in this form. What we are going to do is convert all this into what a "normal" person can understand. I call

what's above the "Basic Strategy Matrix" and you will use it in some of your training. But what we need to do in order

to memorize this is to translate the information above into all-inclusive rules. Let's do a few as examples.

Look at the strategy for a player's hand of9 on the matrix above; it says to double against a 3, 4, 5 or 6and hit it against

everything else. We can turn that information into a simple rule: "With a hand of 9, double versus 3 through 6,

otherwise hit." See how this works? We are going to take each player's starting hand and convert the proper play of

that hand into one easy-to-understand rule. Now look at a hand ofA-2. Proper basic strategy says to double against 5

and 6 and hit it against everything else, so our rule for A-2 is "Double vs. 5 & 6, otherwise hit." As a bonus, we can

group A-2 with A-3 since the play for each is identical. So we end up with a rule like this "A-2, A-3; double vs. 5 & 6,

otherwise hit." One more example; a pair of 3's. When double after split is permitted, proper basic strategy says to

split 3's whenever the dealer is showing a 2, 3,4,5,6, or 7. Against any other dealer up card, we do not split; we should

just hit the hand. Thus, our rule for a pair of 3's becomes "3,3; split vs. 2-7, otherwise hit". Clear on all that? Good.

Basic Strategy Decision Chartfor the Basic Strategy Matrix shown above.

Player's Hand Decisions

5 thru 8 Always Hit

9 Double 3 thru 6, o/w hit



12 Stand 4 thru 6, o/w Hit

13 thru 16 Stand 2 thru 6, o/w Hit

17 or higher Always Stand

A,2 Double vs 5&6, o/w Hit

A,3 Double vs 5&6, o/w Hit

A,4 Double vs 4 thru 6, o/w Hit



A,7 Double 3 thru 6, Stand vs 2,7,8 Hit vs 9,10, A

A,8-A,9 Always Stand

2,2 Split 2 thru 7, o/w Hit


4,4 Split vs 5 & 6, o/w Hit

5,5 Never Split, treat as "10"



8,8 Always split

9,9 Split 2 thru 9 except 7; o/w Stand

10,10 Never Split

A,A Always Split


7/83

Remember The Basic Strategy Decision Chart shown here applies only to the game described earlier; you must

produce your own to fit the rules of your favourite casino.

Once you've made your Basic Strategy Chart, we can begin to memorize it. To do that, we will produce a set of

"Flashcards" . Remember those? You probably learned how to add or subtract using those cards and they will also

teach you how to win at Blackjack. You need to make one flashcard for each starting hand by reproducing the

information above on a 2" x 2' piece of paper. (Manila file folder material does well for this.) Here's what one looks like...

When you're finished, you'll have a pack of flashcards which will help

you to memorize the proper basic strategy for the game you've

chosen. Start carrying them with you and as you encounter those

"lost" moments we each seem to have in our day -- waiting for a

plane, sitting at the dentist's office or even while watching TV, pull

your cards out and start reciting the rule for the hand shown. Check

your accuracy by flipping over the card and then put it on the bottom

of the pack. You'll be amazed at how quickly you begin to learn all

these rules.

HOMEWORK

I said this was a school, didn't I? Well, you will also have some homework to do before we get together again next week.

Here are your assignments Flashcards: Spend a minimum of one hour each day going through the cards.

Computer work: Go to Stanford Wong's "Blackjack Page" and roam around a bit. This is a premier forum on the

Internet for serious blackjack players; it will be time well spent.

Next lesson we'll finish with how to learn basic strategy through a discussion and demonstration of additional training

aids and exercises which will give you the means to check your accuracy. It is not necessary for you to have your

chosen basic strategy memorized perfectly at that point; all you need to know now is HOW to learn basic strategy.

Exactly WHEN you learn it is up to you, since each part of this course is separate and does not depend on you knowing

perfectly what came before.


8/83

Lesson 2: Learning Basic Strategy

This is a very simple lesson -- I'm going to show you how to memorize your chosen basic strategy perfectly. So

perfect, in fact, that you won't have to think about which play is proper; you'll just do it automatically. That skill is

developed through a lot of practice; many hours of repetitious exercises which will leave you knowing basic strategy as

well as your own name. (I didn't say this was easy, just simple).

But we can make those hours of practice a little more fun and somewhat interesting -- even challenging -- by using

different methods of training. If you're a competitive person the timed exercises will appeal to you; it's a lot of fun to see

if you can post a new "personal best" in each of them. But don't worry; you don't have to be a Type A personality to learn

perfect basic strategy. Just take your time and do as many exercises in a day as you want and if you keep at it on a

regular basis, the knowledge will come. Remember, you are learning a skill here which you will be able to use for the

rest of your life. Spending a few dozen hours now may return hundreds of hours of profitable play in the future; seems

like a fair trade to me.

Let's get started.

Flashcards - By now, you should have a set of these made up and are using them on a regular basis. Start timing

yourself as you go through all of them; a good goal is to recite all the rules perfectly and get through your pack in under

two minutes. The time pressure works well in "forcing" you to learn, so record your results so that you can see your

progress. If you have a stopwatch, so much the better, because you can use it not only with the flashcards but with

many other exercises as well. Don't go out and buy one, though; the approximate time is all we're interested in here, so

a wrist watch will do just as well.


9/83

Basic Strategy Reconstruction Exercise - Print out the form below and run off a bunch of copies. This resource can

also be downloaded (for printing purposes). You will notice that it is just a "blank" of the form we used in Lesson 1 to

create the rules for each of the player's starting hands. The object here is to write in the rule for each hand and then

check for accuracy. Remember the old saying; "I read and I forget; I do and I remember." That's what this exercise will

do for you. Time yourself as you do it and see if you can get under 60 seconds with 100% accuracy.

Player's hand Decisions

5 thru 8 _______________________________

9 _______________________________

10 _______________________________

11 _______________________________

12 _______________________________

13 thru 16 _______________________________

17 or Higher _______________________________A,2 _______________________________

A,3 _______________________________

A,4 _______________________________

A,5 _______________________________

A,6 _______________________________

A,7 _______________________________

A,8-A,9 _______________________________

2,2 _______________________________

3,3 _______________________________

4,4 _______________________________

5,5 _______________________________

6,6 _______________________________

7,7 _______________________________

8,8 _______________________________

9,9 _______________________________

10,10 _______________________________

A,A _______________________________


10/83

Basic Strategy Decision Exercise - Here I've made up a lot of player's starting hands along with a dealer's up card.

Use your "Basic Strategy Matrix" from Lesson 1 to make a "correction copy" and mark it as such at the top. Then, just go

down the columns of another copy and fill in the proper play. Use your correction copy to check for accuracy. Speed is

of the essence here, so work towards a goal of completing this in under two minutes with 100% accuracy.

(Indicate proper play under "Decision")

S=Stand H=Hit P=Split Pairs D=Double

Player Dealer Decision Player Dealer Decision Player Dealer Decision8,3 A ____ 2,3,6 4 ____ A,4,2 3 ____6,6 4 ____ 9,9 7 ____ 7,6 3 ____5,4 6 ____ 10,3 3 ____ 8,2 A ____7,7 7 ____ 9,8 7 ____ 8,8 10 ____9,6 8 ____ A,7 2 ____ 10,7 2 ____7,5 3 ____ A,4 5 ____ 9,3 3 ____

A,2 5 ____ 6,4 10 ____ 7,4 A ____3,3 4 ____ A,4 5 ____ 6,3 7 ____

9,2 10 ____ 10,8 6 ____ A,6 5 ____5,5 9 ____ 6,8 7 ____ A,9 6 ____

A,7 6 ____ 9,7 8 ____ 10,4 5 ____

6,3 4 ____ A,2,5 6 ____ 9,9 9 ____5,2 2 ____ 3,6 4 ____ 2,4 2 ____

10,2 3 ____ 7,8 9 ____ 6,5 2 ____9,9 7 ____ 10,3 3 ____ 7,7 2 ____

10,4 9 ____ A,4 4 ____ 3,4 5 ____6,5 9 ____ 10,5 7 ____ 4,4 6 ____

A,6 2 ____ 5,2 10 ____ A,2,4 6 ____4,4 6 ____ 8,8 8 ____ 10,2,A 3 ____

10,10 5 ____ A,A 7 ____ 8,2 10 ____8,6 7 ____ 8,3 10 ____ 6,6 6 ____7,9 10 ____ 5,5 10 ____ 5,4 2 ____

10,2,A 3 ____ A,5,A 3 ____ A,7 3 ____

A,2,2 6 ____ 2,2 7 ____ 3,3 2 ____2,6 4 ____ A,5 4 ____ 7,8 7 ____9,A 6 ____ 6,6 2 ____ 9,9 7 ____10,6 3 ____ 3,7 9 ____ 2,5,4 2 ____7,7 6 ____ 3,3 2 ____ 10,4 6 ____

A,A 9 ____ 5,5 9 ____ 9,3 5 ____2,2 2 ____ A,6 3 ____ A,2 6 ____9,4 4 ____ 10,6 7 ____ 9,8 7 ____

A,3,4 9 ____ 6,6 3 ____ A,4,A 2 ____ A,4,2 6 ____ 9,4 2 ____ 7,5 3 ____

8,8 10 ____ A,4 10 ____ 2,2 6 ____5,5 8 ____ 6,4 9 ____ 3,3 7 ____

A,8 6 ____ 8,3 A ____ 6,6 2 ____5,2 2 ____ 9,9 10 ____ 2,9 10 ____

A,4 6 ____ 7,5 4 ____ 9,7 5 ____

2,3,4,A 6 ____ 7,7 9 ____ 5,4 3 ____ A,A A ____ 9,3 7 ____ 7,4 10 ____

The Importance of Speed - I stress speed in my classes because the ability to do anything quickly and accurately

means you know it well. The play of your hand must be "automatic" because once you learn how to count cards, you'll

be too busy counting to think about the proper play. Make sense?


11/83

The Card Practice exercises that you will read about next are very visual. You might want to consider our DVD

product, to enhance the learning experience.

Card Practice #1 - Now, with a copy of your Basic Strategy Matrix next to you, get out a deck of cards and try this

exercise. Deal one card up for the dealer and then two cards for your starting hand. Play that hand according to proper

basic strategy and, without playing out the dealer's hand, push all the used cards off to the side and do it again. Keep

going until the deck is used up, shuffle and repeat. This exercise will get you used to making playing decisions in a

casino-style setting. Refer to your Matrix as often as you must in order to assure yourself that you are making the proper

play.

Card Practice #2 - Some player hands, like A-7 are difficult to learn. So set up a practice like the one above but leave

the player's hand the same and change only the dealer's up card after each round. Continue to hit or double as before.

This exercise is particularly good for getting you used to playing "soft" hands (those which contain an Ace) properly.

Time is not important here but accuracy is.

Card Practice #3 - This is a variation on the practice above. On this one, keep the dealer's card the same -- say a 6 --

then deal two cards for the player. Play out the hand and then move just the player's cards off to the side. "Stack" your

deck a bit by putting in a lot of pairs so you can get used to splitting properly.

HOMEWORK

Spend at least a half-hour each day on your flashcards and time yourself.

Do a minimum of one "Basic Strategy Reconstruction exercise" each day. Time yourself and record the results along

with the date right on the form.

Do a minimum of one "Basic Strategy Decision exercise" each day and mark both the date and time it took you to

complete it on the form.

Spend at least a half-hour each day doing the 3 card practices. Work on those hands which are the most difficult for you

to learn.


12/83

Lesson 3: Counting Cards - The Basics

With this lesson, I'm going to unwrap the veil of mystery which seems to surround the concept of card

counting. Here you will discover that you don't have to be a genius to keep track of all the cards in a six-deck shoe; you

just have to know a few card-counter secrets.

The first "secret" is that we don't memorize the cards in a deck. Instead, each card is assigned a point-value and all

we are really doing is adding those point values together and then converting that information into a usable form. Just

what those point values are depends upon which counting system a player decides to use. In this school, I'll be teaching

the "High / Low" or "Plus / Minus" system but if you choose to learn another one, everything I'm going to teach still

applies.

The other big "secret" about card counting is how we do it at the Blackjack table. I think most people who have

flirted with counting can get a good grasp of it at home but once they hit all the distractions of a casino their ability to

keep track of the cards, play their hand properly and get a bet into the circle on time breaks down. Remember when I

told you that it was a MUST for you to know basic strategy as well as you know your own name? Now you'll begin to see

why that's necessary; you don't need more things to think about when you're "on the green".

Pick a System

There are a lot of different card-counting systems available and -- like most things in life -- each has its

advantages and its disadvantages. I'll try to sort through the most popular and help you choose one which is right for

you. Probably the most important factor in choosing a system is the type of game you'll be playing most of the time. Forexample, if you play mostly in the Reno/Tahoe area, you should learn a system which performs well against single deck

games. If you play in my old stomping grounds, Atlantic City, you'll want to learn a system which is powerful in multi-

deck games.

Another important factor in selecting a system is the amount of time you spend playing Blackjack. This is going

to surprise you, but a player who intends to spend a lot of time at the tables should learn a very simple system. I say that

because, while this really is pretty easy, it does require some concentration and the simpler the system, the easier it is to

concentrate for long periods of time. On the other hand, if you're only going to play for 3 or 4 hours a week, a more

difficult system may work well for you since a difficult system is usually more powerful and it will optimize the time you

spend at the tables. Now, some of you "Type A's" out there are thinking that you'll spend a lot of time at the tables and

use a very powerful (and complicated) system to get the most $$$ out of your play. The problem here is that under those

circumstances, mistakes begin to creep in and that can cause you to lose your edge. The KISS principle applies: "Keep

It Simple, Stupid". If you really want to get the most out of the game, do what I did, learn two counting systems. I use

one for multi-deck games and another one for single-decks. It's not that hard and as we go through the lessons on

learning how to count, you'll see how the exercises I'll teach you can implement such a strategy.


13/83

Card-counting systems are rated by two primary factors: Betting Efficiency (BE) and Playing Efficiency (PE).

The anomaly of counting systems is that if you increase the BE you are, for the most part, decreasing the PE at the

same time. This happens because of the unusual role an Ace plays in the game. For betting purposes, the Ace is a very

powerful card; it's the primary component of a "natural" which pays 3 to 2. But for playing a hand, the Ace is of

somewhat limited value. How many times have you doubled an 11 and got an Ace? Now you have a total of

12...exciting, huh? Hit a 14, get an Ace and you've got 15; nothing to shout about, is it? Sure, it's great to double a 10

and get an Ace, but that's one of the very few times when the Ace helps in the play of a hand.

How a counting system treats the Ace determines a lot about the BE and PE of that system. If you need a high

Betting Efficiency -- like in a multi-deck game -- then pick a system which counts the Ace as a "big" card; if your game of

choice is single-deck, then choose a system which treats the Ace as a "neutral" card (and keep track of the Aces in a

"side count", a trick I'll show you later.)

Multi-deck games are beaten primarily by a large betting spread. Simply put, you bet small when the house has theedge and much bigger when you have the edge. A counting system with a high BE factor tells you when to bet big. In a

single-deck game, where the house knows a big spread will win the $$$, a high PE lets you bet less and still win. Don't

forget; casinos know that their games are vulnerable and they are on the lookout for people who can beat them. A big

betting spread is one tipoff they use to detect counters and, depending upon where you play, being detected as a

counter may cause your expulsion ("barring") from the casino. Let me stress that what I'm teaching you is entirely legal

but not everyone in the casino business feels as I do. There are no laws against card-counting and you can be the best

counter in the world, but if the casinos won't let you play your skill is wasted.

To help you decide on a count to use, visit the series of articles called "Counting Systems" in the Blackjack

Archive of GameMaster OnLine and look at the systems which are reviewed there. As mentioned earlier, I will be

talking specifically about the "High / Low" count, but you can learn any count by the methods I'll use. If you're going to be

at single-deck games, the Hi-Opt 1 count is probably the best to begin with; go with the High / Low if multi-decks are

what you'll be playing. Since I will be teaching "true count", either of those systems will work well, regardless of where

you play. Most "unbalanced" counts don't require you to learn true count, but it's not a big deal, so stick with one of the

"balanced" counts. For those who really want to get into it, go with Arnold Snyder's "Zen" count, but you should buy his

book, "Blackbelt in Blackjack" to supplement what I'm teaching.


14/83

In the next lesson I'll show you how to learn a counting system with the following "point" values:

2, 3, 4, 5, 6 = +1

7, 8, 9 = 0

10, J, Q, K, A = -1

This system has a Betting Efficiency of .97% and a Playing Efficiency of .51%. The best system in the world would

rate about .98% BE and .70% PE, so what you'll be learning is easy to use for long periods of time, is good at estimating

your edge for betting purposes and is just "OK" at playing the hand properly. (But don't worry; it gets the $$$.) By the

way, there's a third rating for counting systems and that's Insurance Efficiency. While basic strategy says to never take

insurance, once the proportion of tens in the remaining deck(s) reaches a certain point, it becomes profitable to make

the insurance bet. The High / Low counting system has an Insurance Efficiency of .76, which means that about 3/4 of

the time you do take insurance (as determined by the "true count"), it will be the correct decision. But...we're getting

ahead of ourselves here, so copy your homework assignments and get outta here.

HOMEWORK

Continue working with yourflashcards at least a half-hour per day.

Do at least one "Basic Strategy Reconstruction excercise" each day and continue to work on your speed.

Do at least one "Basic Strategy Decision excercise" each day and concentrate on getting it done in under 2 minutes.

Work with the three "Card Exercises" and concentrate on adding up your hand as you play proper basic strategy.

School's out for now. See you here next time.


15/83

Lesson 4: Card Counting - How To Do It

By now you've chosen a counting system that you want to learn and even though it may be different than the Hi / Lo

Count which I'm going to discuss here, the methods used to learn it are the same. Just make adjustments where

appropriate and you'll do fine, but if you are confused or don't understand something, then e-mail me.

This entire lesson that you about to study is very visual. You might want to consider our DVD product, to

enhance the learning experience.

The Hi / Lo counting system assigns a "point" value to each type of card in a deck. The first step in card counting

is to memorize those values. Here they are

Card Point Value

2 +1

3 +1

4 +1

5 +1

6 +1

7 0

8 0

9 0

10 -1

J -1

Q -1

K -1

A -1

A bit of simple math will show you that there are, in a complete deck, an equal number of "plus"-valued cards and

"minus"-valued cards. This is called a "balanced" count and since all cards are valued either 1 or 0, this is also a "single-

level" count.


16/83

The Power of Card Counting

The Hi / Lo count recognizes that the cards 2 through 6 are of greatest value to the dealer, since these cards turn the

dealer's "stiff" hands (12 - 16) which s/he must hit into good hands. For example, a 5 turns a dealer's 12-16 into 17-21,

consequently it is the most important card for a dealer. On the other hand, an Ace is most important to a player, since it's

the key component to a "blackjack" which pays 3 to 2. So, as "little" cards are played, they are no longer available to the

dealer and since there are an equal number of plus- and minus-valued cards in the deck, a "plus" count tells us that

there are a higher proportion of tens and aces left in the unplayed portion of the deck. This situation is favorable for the

player since the chances for a blackjack have increased and doubling or splitting situations stand a better chance of

receiving a high card.

Of course, a dealer has the same chance of receiving high cards as you. But remember that the dealer does not receive

3 to 2 for a blackjack, may not double or split and must hit 16 or less. Also, as you will learn in a later lesson, knowing

the proportion of 10-valued cards in the decks gives you the knowledge to make profitable insurance bets.

Learning The Point Values

This is the only exercise you will ever need to learn the point values of your counting system. It's the one I use

when I'm switching counts for a single-deck game or back again to the one I use for multi-deck games. Just take a deck

of cards and begin turning them over one at a time and recite the point value of each card. If a card is a plus-value, I

don't say "Plus 1"; I just say "one", because it implies "plus" anyway. If a card is a minus-value, I say "M 1", not "minus

1" because it saves a syllable. For the "neutral" or zero-value cards, I say nothing -- they are completely ignored for

counting purposes with the Hi / Lo system.

So, how does this look? Here's a quick example

Ace (M-one)

9

5 (One)

6 (One)

7

King (M-one)

2 (One)

10 (M-one)

Notice that I'm not keeping track of the cards, but merely stating the point value of each. You must practice this

until you have the point values firmly implanted in your mind but don't worry, it won't take long.


17/83

Single-Card Countdown

If you feel you know the point values of each card in your system of choice by heart, you may now begin to

count down a single deck. Simply remove any three cards without looking at them (to check your accuracy) and set

them aside. Now turn over cards one at a time and keep a running total of their values. Remember your old algebra

classes? If you add +1 to -1 the result is 0. That applies here, so keep it in mind as you go through the deck.

Here's an example:

1st card Ace The count: M-one

2nd King M-two

3rd 10 M-three

4th 6 M-two (make sure you know why)

5th Queen M-three

6th 5 M-two

7th 3 M-one

8th 6 Even (I don't use "zero")

9th 4 One (again, no "plus")

Got it? Good. You're not very fast yet, are you? Well, don't worry about that; we'll work on speed later. When you've

completed the deck, the count should be off by the value of the three cards we set aside in the beginning. Look at those

cards, check your accuracy, shuffle and begin again. Get into the habit of removing three cards every time you do any

counting exercises since they will keep you from fooling yourself when you make a mistake.

For now the key is accuracy; keep at this until you can go through a deck three or four times in a row without

mistakes. What you have learned here is called the "running count". Next time we'll work on speeding up your ability to

count; can you believe I'll have you zipping through a deck in less than 20 seconds? The babes really love that at

parties...

HOMEWORK

Continue testing yourself on basic strategy by doing the Basic Strategy Reconstruction and Basic Strategy

Decisions exercises. You won't win if you can't play proper basic strategy.

Begin learning the point values of your chosen system and when you know them by heart -- and only then -- start

doing single-card countdowns of one deck. See you here next time.Practice!


18/83

Lesson 5: Card Counting - The Tricks

No, I'm not going to teach you card tricks here, but I am going to show you a few interesting ways to practice the

count you've decided to learn and then teach you the methods we use to keep track of the cards as they're

played at the casino. Developing your speed at counting is an important part of your training, because if you can't

count quickly at home, you'll never keep up with the dealer in a casino. Inaccurate counting can cause you to give up

any edge you have over the house and it's frustrating to constantly "drop" the count when a faster dealer comes along.

At this point you should have the point values of each card memorized and you might be doing some single-

card countdowns of a deck. I'm sure you're slow at it, but that's OK, since accuracy is the most important factor right

now. Speed will come as you work your way through the exercises I'll show you this week.

This entire lesson that you are studying is very visual. You might want to consider ourDVD product, to enhance

the learning experience.

Pairs Value Practice

Just as you learned the point value of each card according to the system you wish to use, here you will learn the point

value of different PAIRS of cards. This is one of the real "tricks" of the card-counting business: the ability to count

cards in pairs. With enough practice, you'll see a hand of Queen, Jack as both a "20" and an M-2. That capability will

bring speed to your game. Here are the values of pairs using the Hi / Lo method of counting

Hand Net Point Value

-2 -1 0 +1 +2

-2 -1 0 +1 +2

Important! Make sure you understand why each pair is valued as shown and don't forget that if you're learning a different

count, these pairs may have different values.

If you understand everything above, then start going through a single deck and turn two cards over at a time. DO NOT keep

a running count, just recite the value of each pair so you can get used to the adding and subtracting which is required. Do

this until you are totally familiar with the values of all possible pairs. Then do it some more.


19/83

Laying down a good foundation here will allow you to build your speed quickly later on, so this exercise is time

well spent. For you "Type-A's" out there, you might even push this to learning 3-card values. That is a very helpful skill

to have, particularly if you intend to play one-on-one with a dealer, since you always see 3 cards at once; your initial pair

and the dealer's up card. Most of you will want to begin play at tables with other players since things move slower that

way, but like I said -- knowing the 3-card values won't hurt.

Pairs Countdown

Once again, remove three random cards from a single deck and set them aside. (No peeking!) Now, turn over the cards

two at a time, keep a running (cumulative) count of the deck and check your accuracy by adding the cards you set aside

in at the end. This exercise will be your primary way of practicing card counting.

Gradually, your speed will increase to a point where you will count as quickly as you can turn over the cards. To

go even faster, hold the deck in your left hand, face up, and pull the cards -- two at a time -- off the deck with your right

hand. (Opposite if you're left-handed). Help the cards along with your thumb and you'll start to build some speed. How

fast is "fast"? I go through a deck in 10.5 seconds, but all you need to keep up at an average table with 2 or 3 other

players is 20 seconds, though 15 is better (and easy attained if you practice).

Counting at the Table

The method we use to count cards at the

table is the real secret of this business.

For those games where the cards are dealt

face up to the players, the diagram below willshow you how we do it. Games where the

cards are dealt face down (mostly single

deck) require a different methodology and

we'll cover that later.

Most dealers keep their up card face-down until each player has received both cards. The procedure for counting

at a table like that is to begin counting when the player at "first base" receives his second card and to count each

player's pair as the cards are dealt. End your count with the dealer's up card and then count each player's "hit" cards.

Finally, count the dealer's hole card and any cards the dealer may take as a hit.

You can see that this method of counting by pairs allows you to look more natural at the table. Most people think

counters track each card as it's dealt, so supervisory people at casinos watch for players who follow every cards as it

comes out. My method allows you to look away from the table as the first card is going down and then watch as each

hand is made with the second card. That looks a lot more natural, since most players are interested in seeing what

hands other players get.


20/83

HOMEWORK

Besides continuing with your basic strategy practice, start playing some "kitchen table" Blackjack. If you can

con someone into dealing to you, great, but if you can't, just deal four player hands out in a manner they use at your

favorite casino. Don't assume the role of the dealer; you want to get used to seeing all this from a player's perspective

so deal one card to an imaginary first-base player, then to yourself and then to two other imaginary players on your left.

Finish with a dealer's card face down across from you and then deal the second player's card. Begin counting as shown

above and finish with a dealer's up card. Now, play ALL FOUR player's hands according to proper basic strategy and

keep the count. Busy, huh? Don't worry, with practice it will all come to you. When you're done with the first round, do

another and then riffle through the few remaining cards to verify that you've kept the count accurately.

This exercise will form the basis for all of our practice -- except speed development -- from here on out. As you'll

discover, this type of "overload" makes it very easy to play and keep count at an actual casino game; all you need to do

there is just sit back, count and play.


21/83

Lesson 6: Card Counting - Single-Deck Play

Every serious counter should have a good knowledge of how to play single-deck Blackjack, even if you spend

90% of your time at multi-deck games, because when you are able to get to a single deck game, it can be very

profitable. The primary lure of the game will become more evident as we get into betting strategies, but take my word for

it now: any "big" money you'll make at Blackjack will probably come from a single-deck game.

Most of you -- especially those who are close to Atlantic City -- should spend your time practicing instead of

playing, all with the idea of taking 5 or 6 trips a year to areas such as Reno orLaughlin. You'll be much better off

playing 60 or 70 hours a year at the single-deck games there than you would be playing several hundred hours at the

dismal games A.C. is currently offering. Most of my students from the St. Louis area can fly to Reno on a 3 or 4 day trip

for under $300, which includes round-trip airfare and hotel, and since they usually make that much in Blackjack profits

per day, they often come home with a $1000 or more in net winnings. You "Eastcoasters" can find similar action in

Tunica, MS.

This entire lesson that you are studying is very visual. You might want to consider ourDVD product, to enhance

the learning experience.

Counting at the Table

To win at single-deck games, you first need to learn another method of counting at a table where the cards are

dealt face down. As you will recall from Lesson 5, there is a very structured approach required for counting in order to

make sure you're doing it accurately. I'll never forget the first time I played single-deck; it was in Vegas and I was usedto the, then, four-deck game in Atlantic City. On about the second or third hand, the dealer had a "Blackjack" and

everybody threw their cards in, face up. Talk about scrambling; my speed training was tested to its limit, but I got the

count before the next hand was dealt. That's a situation for which you'll have to be ready and only practice will get you

there.

Cards get turned face up for various reasons at a single-deck game, so let's go through a hand and see when

you will count them. Begin by counting your two cards, then dealer's up card. Count any hit cards for the players since

those will be delivered face up. If a player doubles , s/he will turn his or her first two cards face up, so you'll count them.

However, the "double" card will usually be dealt face down, so you won't count it yet. If a player splits a pair, those will

be turned face up so count them and then count the "hit" cards as they come out. In a single-deck game, a player

signifies a "stand" by placing the cards underneath the bet so you don't see them, consequently you can't count them --

yet. Should a player bust, s/he will toss in his or her first two cards, so count them as you see them. Play ends at the

dealer's hand, so count the dealer's hole card as it's turned up and any hit cards for that hand.


22/83

Now comes the tricky part. The dealer will begin at the "third base" side and turn over any "hole" cards (as well as

double-down cards) from underneath the bet and set them above any other cards in the hand. They will end up as the

two cards closest to the dealer; count them as they're exposed. A typical

hand will look like this:

As you can see, this player had a hand totaling 7 and took a hit. The dealer has pulled the cards over the top and will

now pay it as a winner. Count those two cards as they're exposed, but DO NOT count the King again, since you would

have counted it when the player "scratched" for a hit.

This may still be a bit confusing, but once you fit the idea in your mind, you'll quickly get into the scheme of things when

you watch a real game in action. You should just stand behind and observe until you're sure you've got the technique,

but it won't take long. The ideal way to practice is to have someone deal for you, but make sure they use the procedures

shown above.

Developing Your Speed and Endurance

I often use the analogy of a prize fighter when I discuss practicing your counting; a fighter trains for both speed

and endurance. They use a "speed bag" for the short, fast jab and a big, heavy bag for the hard punches. A single-deck

countdown is your "speed bag"; try to get through it as quickly as possible while maintaining your accuracy. To build

your endurance, begin by counting down two decks shuffled together (don't forget to remove 3 cards to check your

accuracy). Once you're doing two decks under 40 seconds, go to 6 decks. Shuffle all six together, then break them down

to 5 or 6 separate piles on a table top and count them all down as quickly as possible. Your goal here is to do it under 2

minutes; under 1:30 is ideal. The reason why we do so many decks, whether we're training for a single-deck or multi-

deck game, is to not only get used to retaining the count for a long period of time, but also to get used to wide swings in

the count. The running count for a single deck will seldom go above or below 10, but you'll often get such counts in a six-

deck countdown and you need to get used to that. Practicing like this with a lot of distractions around is good. Do it with

the kids bugging you, with the TV on, or with Fido barking and you'll develop your ability to keep track while you're in a

casino.


23/83

A Few More Tricks

Learn to count backward from an odd number by 2's. We can all count "2, 4, 6," etc., but few of us can count "11, 9,

7, 5, 3" very quickly. This is a good exercise to do while you're driving. Start at 25 and take it to M5, over and over again;

it will "imprint" in your mind and serve you well at a full table when the count is high and all those 20's and Blackjacks

come out. When you get bored, do it backward from an even number just to keep yourself in shape.

When your counting is interrupted for any reason, recite the count to yourself over and over again. Let's say

you're practicing at home and little Margaux or your son, Corky (isn't every card counter also a wine fanatic?), has a "life

or death" question. If the count at that point is M6, just keep repeating "M6, M6, M6" in your mind as you listen to them.

You'll know you're making real progress when you can then TALK to them and remember the count! Practice is what

allows that to happen.

HOMEWORK

Continue working on your speed with a single-deck countdown, but also work in some two-deck exercises as well. When

you can do two decks accurately in under 40 seconds, go to a six-deck countdown.

Important: All I've shown you here also applies to most double-deck games, but you must remember that the basic

strategy does change a bit when you're playing a game dealt from less than four decks. See Lesson 1 for how to learn

the single-deck basic strategy.

Next we'll begin discussing the only reason for playing Blackjack: Money.

Until then, school's out.


24/83

Lesson 7: Money Management - Part 1

A Sermon

I do a little bit of preaching here every so often, primarily because I hate to think of people handing their money

to casinos. I'm not saying I don't lose, because I have my bad days as well, but what I am saying is that the casinos

have to fight me for every penny they get. You need to develop that kind of attitude and just the fact that you're reading

this now shows me that you're willing to learn, so you've got a good start. Casinos make money because the players

allow them to make money. Even if you've learned everything I've taught you up to this point, you're still not ready to

play, so forget about it and start building your bankroll towards the day when you WILL be ready. You cannot expect to

win at Blackjack if you're betting the rent money. You must have a sum of money set aside which is "extra" -- money

which, should you lose it, will not affect your lifestyle in any way. By doing it that way, you'll bet what needs to be bet and

play the hands as they need to be played. That's what gets the $$$ at the casino. 'Nuff said.

What is Money Management?

As it applies to playing Blackjack as a card counter, money management is a method of betting that will

minimize your losses and maximize your gains. Playing Blackjack carries with it the risk of loss. The advantage a

counter has over the casino is small and the fluctuations in a player's bankroll can occur with frightening speed. Proper

management of your funds is required in all aspects of the game to give you the best possible chance of reaching that

elusive "long term". Some of you will begin your careers as counters with a big win and you'll never look back. Most of

you, however, will begin with a loss and it will take more hours of play before you start showing a profit; that's just the

reality of the situation. What I'm going to teach you in the next four or five lessons is how to survive at the game until

your long term edge begins to have its effect and then show you how to keep the profits you make.

The True Count

All of our betting decisions will be made on the basis of what is known as the "true count" or more accurately,

the "count per remaining deck". While most of this applies to those who will be playing at multi-deck games, you

single-deckers pay attention, too -- you'll need to know this as well. If six small cards come out on the first hand in a

game, we will have a running count of 6. For the single-deck players, you will have a true count of just over 6, since

there's just a bit less than one deck remaining to be played. If you're at a six-deck game, the count per remaining deck

(the true count) is just a bit over 1, since there is just a bit less than 6 decks remaining to be played. See how thatworks? We are "standardizing" the count by dividing the running count by the total number of remaining decks. Let's try

another example to see if you understand the concept. At a single-deck game on the first hand, a running count of 2

(remember, I don't use "+" to indicate a positive number) converts to a true count of 2, when rounded off. In a six-deck

game and a running count of 12 after the first hand, the true count converts to 2. Both true counts are 2 , but it takes a

much higher running count to achieve that in the six-deck game.


25/83

TO DETERMINE THE TRUE COUNT, DIVIDE THE "RUNNING" COUNT

BY THE NUMBER OF DECKS REMAINING TO BE PLAYED.

Don't let that statement confuse you. What this means is the number of decks left, whether they'll actually be

played or not. In a six-deck game, a deck or more may be cut off by the dealer, but that means nothing when

computing true count. The basis for the calculation is the total number of decks in the game, which is adjusted by the

number of decks that have been played. An example: In a six-deck game where two decks have been played and put

into the discard rack off to the side, a running count of 8 translates into a true count of 2 because there are four decks

left in the shoe. The dealer may shuffle before all four of those remaining decks have been played, but for true count

conversion that doesn't matter.

Take this this little test with me to see if you understand the principle.

Deck Remaining Running Count True Count

1. 4 8 2

2. 2 10 5

3. 5 5 1

4. 3 12 4

Estimating the Number ofRemaining Decks

The casinos are very nice about providing us a device to determine just how many decks there are remaining to

be played in the shoe. No, that device is not the shoe, but the discard tray that can be found on virtually every table

where a multi-deck game is played. As cards are used, the dealer places them very neatly in the discard tray where

everyone can see them so counters use that, and a bit of subtraction, to determine how many decks are left to be

played. At a six-deck game, if there are two decks in the discard tray, there has to be four decks left in the shoe,

assuming no cards are on the table. What we strive for is to be accurate to within a half-deck for our estimation. Just

exactly how to train for that is one of your homework assignments, so don't worry about it for the moment. What's more

important at this point are the mechanics used to calculate the true count by that method. Let's walk through a simple

explanation together.

We're at a six-deck game, the running count is M-6 and three decks are in the discard tray. That means three decks

remain, so we divide the running count by 3 and our true count is M-2. Yes, this works for negative decks as well --

exactly the same way. Got it? Try this test to see if you do.


26/83

Assume we're at a six-deck game. I'm only going to give you the decks in the discard tray, so do the calculation to

determine the number of decks left in the shoe.

Decks

Played

Running

Count

True

Count

1. 2 4 ?

2. 4 8 ?

3. 5 5 ?

4. 1 5 ?

5. 2.5 7 ?

6. 2 0 ?

7. 3.5 M-5 ?

8. 1.5 9 ?

9. 3 M-3 ?

10. 4.5 2 ?

The Answers

1. One (2 decks played, 4 decks remaining, 4 divided by 4 = 1)

2. Four (4 decks played, 2 decks remaining, 8 divided by 2 = 4)

3. Five (You're on your own now, kid.)

4. One

5. Two

6. Zero

7. M-two

8. Two

9. M-one

10. A bit over one (but we always round "down" in order to be conservative, so we'd call this "one".)


27/83

I can see some eyes glazing over out there, so we better stop for this week. But don't be discouraged; you can

learn this -- it just takes some practice. Speaking of practice, pick up your homework assignment and practice

"calibrating" your eyes.

HOMEWORK

Estimating the number of decks remaining in a discard tray is really just an exercise in repetitive staring. If you look at a

deck of 52 cards long enough, you can tell if 10 or 12 cards have been added to it. So, that's how we calibrate our eyes.

Begin with a single deck and look it for a while. Then, put another deck on top of it and look at that for a while. Now, put

a third deck on top and look at that for a while. Finally, pull one deck off -- don't count the cards -- just estimate how

much a deck is, pull it off and then count it to see how close you were. Now, put that deck back on top and pull off twodecks, count them for accuracy and put them back on top. Now, build your stack up to five decks and pull off a deck and

a half, then three decks and so on. You'll be amazed at how quickly you've begun to recognize how many decks are in a

pile. A nice variation to this exercise is to have a friend set up piles of various sizes (within a half-deck accuracy) while

you're out of the room and then you come in and recite the size of each pile.

Keep at it, because you've got to be accurate at this. Your money will be riding on it.

See you here next time when we discuss how to bet by using the true count.


28/83


A Few Words on Single Deck

In the previous lesson, I taught you how to figure the "true count" for a multi-deck game, but I want to

emphasize that the concept of true count also applies to single-deck games as well. The conversion is done a bit

differently, but the result is the same; you end up with a standardized count per remaining deck. If you see just one card

in a single-deck game, a 5 for example, you now have a "running count" of 1 and a true count of one. That, of course, is

because there's only one deck in the game to begin with and we determine the true count by dividing the running count

by the number of remaining decks. If, after playing several hands the running count is 6 and there's three-fourths of a

deck left to be played, we must divide the running count by .75 in order to determine the true count. In this instance, the

true count is 8. If we were at the halfway point of the deck, the true count would be 6 divided by .50 = 12. Got the

concept of that? In a single-deck game, you have to divide by fractions, and that isn't easy to do, so all you single-deck

counters need to practice this in order to figure it properly when you play.

Betting With the True Count

For each increase of 1 in the true count as figured by the Hi / Lo counting method, the player's advantage

increases by about .5% in the average Blackjack game. If the casino has an edge over the basic strategy player of

.40% (6 decks, double on any first two cards, double after splitting pairs, dealer stands on A-6), it takes a true count of

just about 1 in order to get "even" with the house. Being even means that the player who utilizes proper basic strategy

will win as much as s/he loses -- in the long run -- at a true count of one. A true count of 2 gives the counter an edge of

.5% over the house; a true count of 3 gives the player an edge of 1% and so forth.

It is the edge that a player has on the upcoming hand which determines their bet. Count- ers bet only a small

portion of their capital on any given hand, because while they will win in the long run, they could lose any one hand. By

betting an amount which is in proportion to their advantage (called the "Kelly Criterion"), they are maximizing their

potential while minimizing the risk. A lot of people misinterpret the Kelly Criterion by assuming that the amount bet is in

direct proportion to the advantage. They think that if you have a 1% edge, you should bet 1% of your "bankroll" and that

is incorrect. What they are forgetting is the doubling and pair splitting which goes on in the course of a game and that

increases the risk or "variance" of a hand. For a game with rules like those listed above, the optimum bet is 76% of the

player's advantage.


29/83

Here's a table of optimum bets which will work well for most multi-deck games:

True Count Advantage % Optimum Bet

-1 or lower -1.00% or more 0%

0 -0.50% 0%

1 0% 0%

2 0.5%x76% .38%

3 1.0%x76% .76%

4 1.5%x76% 1.14%

5 2.0%x76% 1.52%

6 2.5%x76% 1.90%

7 3.0%x76% 2.28%

By using this table, you can determine the optimal bet for any bankroll; just multiply the figure in the last column by the

amount of the bankroll. Thus, for a bankroll of $3000, the optimal bet for a true count of 2 is .0038 X $3000 = $11.40.

Some Practical Considerations

First and foremost, it isn't practical to bet in units of less than $1, so a betting schedule must be rounded off.

Secondly, it is more appropriate to bet in units of $5 so that you'll look like the average gambler, plus it cuts

down on the calculations you need to make. Further, it is impossible to refigure your optimal bet while seated at the

table, even though it should be recalculated as the bankroll varies up and down. Finally, it just isn't possible to play only

at shoes where the true count is 2 or higher; you will sometimes have to make bets when the house has an edge. All of

this rounding and negative-deck play cuts into your win rate, but by knowing the conditions which can cost you money,

steps can be taken to minimize their impact on your earnings.

The Betting Spread

A single-deck game with decent rules in which thirty-six cards or more are used before a shuffle can be beaten

by a 1 to 4 spread.A two-deck game in which seventy cards or more are used before the shuffle can usually be beaten

by a 1 to 6 spread. A game with four decks or more will require a spread of 1 to 12 in order to get an edge. We'll discuss

the evaluation of games in a later lesson, but I wanted to lay the foundation for your money management by giving you

an idea of what it takes to play winning Blackjack. The spread is expressed in betting units, so if you play with $5 chips,

you'd be spreading from $5 to $60 in a six-deck game. Since a counter should have a bankroll consisting of a minimum

of 50 top bets, a spread like this will require a bankroll of $3000.


30/83

With a $3000 bankroll, a betting schedule could look like this:

True Count Player's Bet Optimum Bet

0 or lower $5 $0

1 $5 $0

2 $10 $11.20

3 $20 $22.80

4 $40 $34.20

5 $50 $45.60

6 $60 $57.00

A betting schedule like this allows you to "parlay" your bets as the count rises, thus making you look more like a

"gambler".

YOU WILL SAVE A LOT OF MONEY AND FIND MORE PROFITABLE SITUATIONS IF YOU LEAVE A TABLE WHEN

THE COUNT HAS GONE DOWN TO A TRUE OF - 1. BUT LEAVE ONLY AFTERLOSING A HAND; NO GAMBLER

WOULD LEAVE A TABLE AFTER A WIN.

So, have I got your brain spinning? If so, just hang in there as I'll be wrapping all this up in a nice, easy-to-understand

package in the coming weeks. As always, get your homework, then you're outta here.

HOMEWORK

None. How's that for a break?


31/83


Expectation and Standard Deviation

If you flip a coin 100 times, your expectation is to receive 50 heads and 50 tails. But the reality may well be different;

the measurement of that reality is called "standard deviation".

Standard deviation is a mathematical term used to predict the outcome of a situation. In our coin-flipping exercise,

we expect 50 heads and 50 tails to occur, but two-thirds of the time the actual result will be somewhere between 45 and

55 either way. That is, a result of 55 heads and 45 tails or something in between is not unusual; it will happen 68.3% of

the time. That measurement is for 1 standard deviation from the expectation and if we were to run hundreds of 'trials' of

100 flips, we could plot our results on a bell curve and the vast majority of results would fall between 55 and 45 either

way. What would be unusual would be to have a lot of trials where the result was actually 50-50! Got that concept in

your mind? Good. You'll need to understand this in order to survive the mental turmoil caused by the losses that areinevitable in this game.

Nothing has caused counters to give up Blackjack more than a lack of understanding about normal, everyday

standard deviation. Counters who have trained hard unrealistically expect to win each time they play, so when they

have several losing sessions, they forget what they've learned. Next thing you know, they're over-betting their bankroll

and fail to play their hands properly and when they wake from the daze, their money is gone.

PATIENCE AND SKILL WIN -- HUNCHES AND WISHING WILL NOT WIN. PRAYER DOES NOT WORK AT

BLACKJACK.

So, what can you expect -- what's the worst which can happen? Well, you can lose all your money, but if you

establish a bankroll of at least 50 'top' bets, play proper basic strategy at all times and don't over-bet, you stand a good

chance of making some $$$ at Blackjack -- if the game at your local casino is a game that can be beaten. Did I ever say

this was easy?

The table below illustrates the possible results from varying hours of play at a fairly typical game. Shown with

the expectation are the possible dollar results as measured by 1 standard deviation (68.3% of the time) and 2 standard

deviations which covers what will happen 95% of the time. Three standard deviations cover what will happen 99.7% of

the time.


32/83

Expected Win / Standard Deviation

Assumptions: $12 average bet, 50 hands per hour, 1.25% average advantage.

Results

TimeExpected

Win68.3% of the time 95% of the time

3 hours $22.50 +$191 to -$147 +$360 to -$316

12 hours $90.00 +$428 to -$248 +$766 to -$586

48 hours $360.00 +$1,036 to -$316 +1,710 to -$992

90 hours $675.00 +$1,600 to -$250 +$2,525 to -$1,175

Let's talk about this a bit. If you were to play several hundred 'sessions' of 3 hours each, the average win for

those sessions would be about $22.50. (This comes from using a $5 to $60 betting spread discussed in the previous

lessons). But few sessions would result in a win of exactly $22.50; about two-thirds would be somewhere between a win

of $191 and a loss of $147. Most of the other sessions could see you winning as much as $360 or losing as much as

$316 and a few would see wins or losses even bigger than that! Do you see now why it takes a bankroll of $3000 to

support a $5 to $60 betting spread? In order to be successful, you must be able to absorb losses which are many times

that of your 'expectation'. These fluctuations are real; they will happen to you at one time or another and if you're not

prepared for them, you'll either get frustrated and quit or lose your cool and blow your bankroll.

Now look at the results for 90 hours of play. Most of you will be - at worst - about break-even after that many

hours. A few might be up by $2500, but some of you could be down by $1175 or more. Boy, I'd hate to hear the names

you'll be calling the old GameMaster then! But it can happen and it won't be unusual if it does, so ask yourself right now

if you can deal with playing a disciplined game for 90 hours, still be at a loss and continue playing and betting as I've

shown you. It's sad, but most of you won't be able to deal with that and you'll be another victim of standard deviation.

That's why I'm not afraid of the casinos going out of business, even if every player in the world learns how to count cards

- few have the patience to stick it out. I don't want to be overly-negative, but that's the reality. However, if you do stick it

out, the percentages will eventually begin working in your favor. As I tell all my students, "the money comes in 'chunks'

at Blackjack". This is not a slow, consistent way to make money; your bankroll will, at times, resemble a roller coaster

and it's difficult to deal with that from an emotional point of view.

HOMEWORK

Just try to understand the concept of standard deviation and continue 'calibrating' your eyes by doing deck

estimation exercises with six decks. As I've said before, you need to be accurate within a half-deck for computing the

true count.

Go to this site, Blackjack Math (http://www.bjmath.com/main.htm) and poke around a bit. It'll be worth your time.


33/83

Lesson 10: The Proper Mental Attitude

I always stress the idea of 'expectation' as it applies to casino gaming because understanding the concept will

help you stop gambling and hopefully turn you into an investor at the tables. By definition, an investor expects to

make a profit so you cannot be an investor if you play at games where there is a negative expectation. If you bet $10 on

the Pass line at craps, you'll either win $10 or lose $10, but your 'expectation' is to lose 14 cents on every hand. That's

because the house has a built-in edge of 1.4% on that bet and if you play it frequently, your average loss will work out to

be 14 cents per decision. In the short term you might win a lot of money, but play it long enough and the house edge will

eventually have its effect. Since the average craps table produces about 60 decisions an hour, the cost per hour of

betting $10 on the pass line will work out to be -- in the long run -- about 60 X 14 cents = $8.40.

Now let's look at this concept from the point of view of a positive expectation situation like card counting at

Blackjack. If your average bet is $12 and the average advantage you have over the house is 1.25%, your expectation is

to win $12 X .0125 = $.15 per hand. Yes, that's 15 cents per hand. At a rate of 60 hands an hour, you can expect to

make -- in the long run -- about 60 X 15 cents = $9.00 an hour. But, if you can increase the number of hands you play

per hour to, say, 80 hands, you've raised your expectation to 80 X 15 cents = $12.00 an hour. The only other way to

make more money is to either raise the size of your average bet or increase your edge over the casino. The bet size is

just a function of your bankroll (and your ability to continue 'fooling' the casino into believing you are just another

gambler and not a card counter) and the advantage is mostly a function of the casino's rules for their Blackjack game. I

will address both these issues in future lessons, so for now let's focus on increasing the number of hands you play in an

hour.

More Hands Mean More Money

If you are the only player at a six-deck game, you can play at a rate of about 200 hands an hour. With all else

remaining equal, that will raise your expectation to 200 X 15 cents = $30 an hour -- a very healthy increase. The problem

here is that I want you to get up and walk away whenever the true count drops below M1, so 200 hands an hour is

possible only if you get one of those shoes where the count stays positive AND if you are fast enough to keep the count

while your playing at this rate. Moving when the deck goes bad is a must, since it's cheaper to not play at all rather than

play at a game where the house has an edge over you.

But 200 hands an hour is a worthy goal, so continue practicing with your single-deck countdown in an effort to

build your speed to a point where you can go through a deck in under 20 seconds. When you can do that and

compute the true count and play perfect basic strategy, you should play one-on-one whenever possible. That may mean

that you'll have to go to the casino at 2 AM on a Monday, but it will be worth it. Just remember that increasing your rate

of play will increase your hourly standard deviation, so don't be surprised if you lose $400 or more in an hour's play; your

risk hasn't increased but you have -- in effect -- 'compressed' your time factor. Dealers often tell me that a player "can't

win" one-on-one, but they're wrong. Their misconception in this regard comes from the fact that because more hands


34/83

are being played, the swings are bigger and dealers usually remember the big losers and forget the big winners. As an

investor, it is in your best interest to play as many hands an hour as possible, since your expectation is to win 15 cents a

hand.

THE GOAL OF THE PROFESSIONALPLAYER IS TO PUT IN AS MUCH QUALITYPLAYING TIME AS POSSIBLE; WIN ORLOSS AMOUNTS ARE SECONDARY.

BY PLAYING AND BETTING CORRECTLY, THE $$$ WILL COME WITH TIME.

A Winning Attitude

As I've said before, the wins at Blackjack come in 'chunks', so you shouldn't be concerned when you have a losing

session, nor should you feel invincible when you win. A proper mental attitude eliminates the highs and lows of the

game (thus making it very boring -- at least in my opinion) but it enables you to play a solid , unemotional game.

When I have a losing session (on average, 35% of the time), I just go away knowing that the casino will take good care

of the money and I'll eventually come back and get it. 600 hands of play means I've 'earned' 600 times my expectation

per hand so I just need to keep going to work and my paycheck will eventually reflect my earnings. To put it simply, if

you are playing a winning game, it isn't a matter of 'if' you will win, merely a matter of 'when'.

So let the ice-water begin to flow in your veins -- as one author put it, "steely blue eyes will do." Emotion has no place in

card-counting; accuracy and patience are the only requirements for getting the $$$.

HOMEWORK

Get an old deck of cards and a marker pen. For those of you playing at 6-deck games, write the number "1/2" on the

back of one card, "1" on the next card, "1 1/2" on the third card and continue up to 5 by increments of one-half. Now ,

number the backs of 20 more cards individually from 1 to 20. Shuffle both piles (separately) face up so you can't see the

numbers and turn over the top card from the first pile. This will represent the number of decks in the discard tray. For

example, if it's the "2 1/2" card, it represents 2 1/2 decks in the discard tray, so that must mean there are 3 1/2 decks left

in the shoe. Now begin turning over the cards from the second pile. These represent the running count and we want to

practice computing the true count, so if the first card is "8", the true count is 8 divided by 3 1/2 = 2 (remember, we round

down to be conservative). Keep going through the running count cards while the 'decks' card remains the same. When

you've gone through all the running count cards, change the 'decks' card and do it again.

This exercise will help speed your ability to compute the true count accurately. Those of you who will be playing

single deck just need to make a card for 1/4, 1/2, and 3/4 decks and running-count cards from 1 to 10, but you will

practice the same way. As you do this exercise, concentrate on accuracy and remember to be conservative in

computing the true count.


35/83

Lesson 11: Evaluating Games

While almost all Blackjack games are ultimately beatable, the rewards to be gained from marginal situations do

not adequately compensate you for your time and risk. Therefore, you must evaluate a game in several ways before

playing it. Two primary areas of concern are the house rules of the game, including the number of decks used and the

placement of the cut-card, what we call "penetration."

Many rule changes require a change in your basic strategy, so don't forget about the "Basic Strategy Engine" which we

linked in lesson 1. Rule changes may also affect your betting schedule, so if you have any doubts about what to do, e-

mail me.

Effect ofRule Variations on the Player's Edge

(Assume 6 decks, double on any first two cards, no double after splitting, resplit all pairs, except Aces, insurance isavailable and the dealer stands on Ace-6. This yields a -.54% advantage to the player.)

Changes which help the player Change in the edge

Double after split +.14%

Resplit Aces +.07%

Early surrender vs. All +.70%

Early surrender vs 10 0nly +.30%

Late surrender +.08%

Single Deck +.50%

Two Decks +.20%

Four Decks +.05%

Changes which hurt the player Changes in edge

Dealer hits A-6 -.20%

Double only on 11 -.46%

Double only on 10,11 -.09%

Double only 9, 10,11 -.09%

No respliting pairs -.04%

No insurance (if you are counting cards) -.40%


36/83

To determine the casino's edge over you at the beginning of a shoe, just add or subtract the rules variations

from the 'base' game listed above. For example, if you play a double deck game that has the same rules as the base

game, the casino advantage is computed as follows.

Base game -.54%

Two Decks +.20%

_____________________

Player edge -.34%

Effect of Deck Penetration

How far the dealer goes into the deck(s) before shuffling can have a major effect on your winnings. The reason is

that with a shallow penetration, the 'high' counts that enable you to bet more occur less often in decks where the shuffle

comes early. The table below shows how often counts will occur on a percentage basis at varying degrees of

penetration.

Percent Occurrence at...

True Count 50% 65% 75% 85% penetration

+1 15 15 13 13

+2 8 7 8 8

+3 3 4 4 5

+4 1.5 2.5 3 4

+5 1 1 2 2

+6 .5 1 2 2

+7 0 .5 1 1.5

+8 0 0 .5 1

+9 0 0 0 .5

+10 0 0 0 .5

Let's examine what I'm trying to say here. If you play at a game with only 50% penetration, out of every 100 hands,

only 29 will have, on average, a true count of 1 or better. Since it requires a true count of 1 to get even with the house,

only 14 will be hands on which you have an advantage. Now look at the stats for a game with 85% penetration. Here,

about 37.5% of the hands will be at breakeven or better and almost a quarter will be hands on which you have an

advantage.


37/83

YOU ARE WASTING YOUR TIME AND MONEY IF YOU PLAY AT AGAME WITH LESS THAN 65% PENETRATION.

Even if a game doesn't offer the best rules, it can still be beaten if good penetration is available. Remember that

you should leave a game when the count drops below a true of minus 1 so that you spend most of your playing time

making bets in what I call the 'profit zone.'

HOMEWORK

Calculate the player starting advantage for the following:

y Single deck, double only on 10 and 11 and the dealer hits A-6. Resplits (except Aces) are permitted and insurance isavailable.

y Six decks, dealer stands on A-6, double any first two cards, double after split is allowed, resplitting permitted, includingAces and insurance is available.

y Two decks, double on any first two cards, no resplitting of pairs, no double after split allowed, late surrender andinsurance is available.

I'll post the correct answers to this quiz in the next lesson.


38/83

Lesson 12: Casino Playing Tactics

What Are Casino Playing Tactics?

It's a sad fact of life that casino personnel, especially floor supervisors and pit bosses do not like card counters

playing at their Blackjack games. They know the game can be beaten by a skilled player, so depending upon how

deep their paranoia runs, their reaction to a player who wins and is suspected of being a counter may vary from close

scrutiny ('heat') to outright barring of that player. Consequently, a skillful player must hide his or her abilities and appear

as just another 'loser' while winning at the game. Proper casino playing tactics help to disguise your skills, thus allowing

you to continue to play.

A Casino 'Profile' of a Counter

Casino supervisors believe they have card counters profiled and can spot them by their actions. While the list is long,

here are some of their prejudices:

1. Card counters are usually young, white males (probably with beards) who dress too casually for the amount of moneythey throw around.

2. Card counters 'scout' the tables in a pit, looking for a good count before sitting down.3. A counter will change $200-300 into chips but then only bet $5 or $10 on the first hand.4. Counters don't talk to anyone; they stare at the discard tray and rescan the table, checking on the count.5. Counters don't smoke or drink alcohol.6. A counter thinks a while before placing his bet.7. A counter doesn't hesitate before playing a 'stiff' hand.8. A counter never takes insurance with a minimum bet out, but does take insurance when a big bet is out, regardless of

his hand.9. A counter varies his bet beyond a 'parlay'.10. Counters don't tip the dealers.

11. A counter pulls back a big bet and lowers it on a 'push' or when the shoe ends.12. A counter always makes a minimum bet on the first hand of a newly-shuffled shoe.

Card Counter Camouflage

To make money at Blackjack, you must maintain your welcome at the casinos. But even though you may feel that

there's a big red 'C' on your forehead the first few times that you play as a counter, it really isn't there and if you avoid a

few of the 'newbie' mistakes, the casino supervisors probably won't pay any attention to you at all.

If you are playing for high stakes, you'll be noticed whether you win OR lose; high-stakes players are always

noticed. But, if you are starting with the $5 to $60 spread that I recommend, you probably won't be noticed at all. How

often you play at a particular casino has a lot to do with this. Remember that most casinos have at least two shifts, so try

to spread your play around between casinos and shifts. AVOID PLAYING FROM ONE SHIFT TO ANOTHER. Keep

your sessions fairly short and it will take them a long time to even begin to figure out what you're doing.


39/83

The real key to fooling the casino personnel is to appear as though you are just another gambler. Here are some

techniques which I use.

1. Dress appropriately for your betting level. A 'high-roller' should look like a prosperous person not, as one author put it,"like an out-of-work substitute school teacher." If you go to a local casino on the day shift during the week, dress like abusiness person who's playing hooky from the office. Do NOT dress like a tourist (a very effective disguise) if they aregoing to see you again next week.

2. When you enter a casino, walk directly to a table where the dealer is shuffling and sit down. Talk to the dealer, or atleast say "hi".

3. If you are playing a $5 minimum bet, buy in for less than $100, but more than $40. Do not use terms like 'red' or 'green';'nickels' or 'quarters'. Call the chips $5 or $25 chips.

4. Do not order anything from the cocktail servers; they are too slow and waiting for a drink may cause you to play at anegative deck while you're waiting. Instead, order non-alcoholic drinks at the bar (O'Doul's, orange juice, anything with alime) and carry it around with you.

5. Try to always have a bet in your betting circle. Remember, only counters think about how much to bet; gamblers just putsomething out there. If you busted your hand or got a Blackjack, place your next bet as the dealer is playing his hand.With practice, your bet will be the correct amount, but it won't appear as though you had to think a lot about how much toput out.

6. Gamblers NEVER leave a table after a win. If the count has dropped below -1, continue playing at the minimum bet untilyou lose a hand.

7. Hesitate before hitting a 'stiff' hand. Talking to the cards helps.

8. Occasionally, insure your Blackjack against the dealer's Ace when you have the minimum bet out. Do not ask for 'evenmoney'; go through the motions like you don't know how it all works. This will also make the dealer slow down on herinsurance calls in the future which will give you extra time to calculate the true count. It's best to do this 'minimum'insurance bet when a floor supervisor is looking.

9. If you are going to tip the dealer (something you should do sparingly), wait until the count is high and you have a big betout. Placing a bet for the dealer at that time will make it look like you want her to help you win.

10. Once or twice in each session, start off a new shoe with a bet of 2 or 3 times the minimum.11. Do not vary from proper basic strategy as a form of camouflage; most casino personnel wouldn't know good play

anyway. In fact, perfect basic strategy players look like idiots -- hitting a 12 against a 2 or 3 or doubling an A-7 against a4 is nuts! (To them.)

12. Do not talk to others at the table about your abilities; do not help others to play their hands properly. Never admit thatyou've understood a book about Blackjack. Do not appear confident, but don't act like a loser when you're obviouslywinning -- gamblers love to win!

13. I can't bring myself to wear one, but a 'fanny pack' has got to be one of the most disarming items a counter can wear.With that and a pair of glasses on, damn few supervisors will ever think you're this cold-blooded, card counting, steely-eyed destroyer of casinos. But I guess if my usual act ever starts to wear thin, I'll get one and put it on. I'd rather be rich

than cool.

HOMEWORK

y Calculate the casino's starting advantage for the following games:y Single deck, double only 10 or 11, dealer hits A-6. Answer: .33%y Six decks, double on any first two cards, dealer stands on A-6, resplit pairs, incl. Aces, double after split allowed.

Answer: .33%

y Two decks, double on any first two cards, no resplit of pairs, no double after split, dealer stands on A-6, late surrender.Answer: .30% (I didn't specify if the dealer stands or hits on A-6; this figure is for a game where s/he stands.)


40/83

Lesson 13: The Advanced Course - Part 1

The most powerful (legal) means of overcoming the casino's edge in Blackjack is to vary your bets according to

the true count. Additional gains of .2 to .3% are available to those who also vary the play of their hands according to

the true count. You undoubtedly have had situations where the count was sky-high and just knew that hitting that 12

against the dealer's 3 was going to get you a face card. There is a point, as measured by true count, where standing

with a 12 against a 3 is more profitable than hitting. Th

GameMaster's Blackjack School (Rough Edit)

Documents

Transcript of GameMaster's Blackjack School (Rough Edit)