“Gain vs Pain” Political economy of climate change negotiations
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11 Mar 2008 Dublin Lecture no. 6 1 “Gain vs Pain” Political economy of climate change negotiations Michael Zammit Cutajar Ambassador for Climate Change, Malta
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“Gain vs Pain” Political economy of climate change negotiations. Michael Zammit Cutajar Ambassador for Climate Change, Malta. Outline. Political agenda (slides 3-8) Players and playing field (9-11) Features of negotiation (12-21) Political outlook (22-25). - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Transcript of “Gain vs Pain” Political economy of climate change negotiations
11 Mar 2008 Dublin Lecture no. 6 1
“Gain vs Pain”Political economy of climate
change negotiations
Michael Zammit CutajarAmbassador for Climate Change,
Malta
11 Mar 2008 Dublin Lecture no. 6 2
Outline
• Political agenda (slides 3-8)• Players and playing field (9-11)• Features of negotiation (12-21)• Political outlook (22-25)
11 Mar 2008 Dublin Lecture no. 6 3
Climate change at 20: a strategic issue
• MET + ENV => Economy => Finance, FA => Heads
• Security impacts:– Water and food; energy – Natural disasters, territorial integrity (SLR)– Population movements
• IPCC messages now widely recognized– “Our understanding has come a long way”
• SG/UN High-level event Sept. 2007
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Key messages IPCC AR4, Stern Review
• Human-induced change is unequivocal– Faster than expected
• Impacts generally negative– Compounding poverty, fragility, inequality
• Warming beyond 2°C = “danger” (EU)• Prevention is cheaper than cure (globally)
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Pain …
• For fighting chance of “safety” (<2°C) • Global emissions should peak around
2020 …• And fall below 50% of 1990 levels by
2050• ENORMOUS CHALLENGE!
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11 Mar 2008 Dublin Lecture no. 6 7
… Gain
• Early action costs less than inaction– Stern: 5 to 20 times less (global estimate)
• Pathway to “safety” will knock <3% off global GDP growth to 2030– <0.12% per annum
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Political questions
• Not whether? But …
• What? How much? When?
• BY WHOM?
Top 25 « footprints »(WRI/Pew Center; data for 2004 - LUCF 2000)
Saudi Arabia,Malaysia
Top 25 in CO2 emissions(incl. LUCF)
Top 25 in GDP
USA, China, EU25, Russia, India, Japan, Germany, Brazil, UK, Italy, France, Mexico, Indonesia, Iran, Thailand
Myanmar, D.R.Congo
Canada, Rep. Korea, Australia, S. Africa, Spain, Poland
(Taiwan), Netherlands, ArgentinaTurkey
Egypt,Nigeria,Vietnam,Philippines,Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Pakistan
Top 25 in Population
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Negotiating framework
• 1988-1992: Convention (UNFCCC, 190+ Parties)– Objective, principles, cooperation, reporting– Aim for developed countries: 2000 = 1990
• 1995-2001: Kyoto Protocol (175+ Parties)– Targets for developed countries (2008-2012)– Market mechanisms => Marrakech rules
• 2005-2009: Montreal & Bali processes– Protocol and Convention tracks– “Bali Action Plan” - “Bali Road Map”
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Strategic parameters• Aim: avoid “dangerous interference”
– Two prongs: Mitigation + Adaptation• To limit climate change to “safe” (tolerable) levels• So that the challenge of adaptation is manageable• & sustainable devt. and food security not impaired
• Criteria:– Inclusiveness (=> effective, fair)– Solidarity– Urgency
• Question: “safe”, “tolerable”, “manageable” FOR WHOM?
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Assessing the problem
1. Negotiations are driven by science Growing confidence in IPCC assessments
Caveat: re “Summary for policy-makers”
2. Motivation to act is highly variable Low spatial correlation between cause and effect• Large variation in capacity to cope Many losers - but some short-term winners
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Projected patterns of precipitation changes2090/2099 : 1980/1999
Dec-Feb Jun-Aug
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Greenland is melting!
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Arctic sea ice Median Sept. Extent 09.09.2007 1979-2000
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Shaping the response
3. Mitigation vs Adaptation
Mitigation = division, confrontation Vulnerability = unifying condition Adaptation = unifying message Adaptation first?
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Mitigation strategy: responsibilities
4. Responsibility “common but differentiated
responsibilities” historical responsibility (equity) responsibility for the future NB. national circumstances,“respective
capabilities” NB. burdens or opportunities
Effectiveness, fairness, responsibility, potential (Data for 2000, 6 KP gases - except 1950-2000)
Source: WRI/CAIT % World emissions
Tons per cap(tCO2e)
1950-2000 cumulative CO2 - % world + T/cap
Intensity Kt/M$GDP
ExclLUCF
InclLUCF
ExclLUCF
InclLUCF
Energy EnergyPlus LUC
ExclLUCF
USA 19.2 24.3 0.70
EU 25 13.2 10.5 0.46
Annex I 48.4 39.3 14.1 13.9 73.8%456 T/cap
52.6%457 T/cap
0.64
World 5.9 7.2122 T/cap 171 T/cap 0.80
Non-Annex I
43.7 54.2 3.3 4.9 27.1%42 T/cap
47.6%103 T/cap
0.91
China 13.6 3.9 0.98
India 4.5 1.6 0.67
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Effectiveness, fairness, responsibility, potential (Data for 2000, 6 KP gases - except 1950-2000)
Source: WRI/CAIT
% World emissions
Tons per cap(tCO2e)
1950-2000 cumulative CO2 - % world + T/cap
Intensity Kt/M$GDP
ExclLUCF
InclLUCF
ExclLUCF
InclLUCF
Energy EnergyPlus LUC
ExclLUCF
USA 19.2 24.3 0.70
EU 25 13.2 10.5 0.46
Russian Fed. 5.3 13.0 1.86
Japan 3.8 10.8 0.41
Annex I 48.4 39.3 14.1 13.9 73.8%456 T/cap
52.6%457 T/cap
0.64
Non-Annex I 43.7 54.2 3.3 4.9 27.1%42 T/cap
47.6%103 T/cap
0.91
China 13.6 3.9 0.98
India 4.5 1.6 0.67
Brazil 2.7 5.3 5.5 13.4 0.76
Indonesia 1.4 7.0 2.4 14.9 0.84
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Mitigation strategy:options
5. Targets National OR sectoral Absolute OR intensity
6. Policies Market-based (top-down) OR Technology-driven (bottom-up)
7. Vision Low-hanging fruit (energy efficiency, reducing
deforestation) OR Low-carbon “future technologies”
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Signs of promise
• EU: CC & Energy package• USA: States, Business, Congress, Candidates• G.8/ “Major Economies”: 2050 reduction goal• Developing country plans & programmes
• China, 11th 5-year plan + CC programme• Mexico, 1st. National CC Strategy => Devt.
Plan• Brazil, Indonesia: reducing deforestation• India: CC programme in preparation
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Bali Action Plan
• Inclusive and comprehensive– Mitigation + Adaptation– Enabled by Technology + Finance
• Framed by “shared vision”• Demanding political judgement
– Verifying and comparing national efforts• Open as to form of “agreed outcome”• Ambitious (2009 deadline)
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Shared vision … differentiated future
• Long-term mitigation goal (50:50)• Low-carbon future: technology, markets and
finance– 2020 peak with current technologies (efficiency)– New technologies: market share or shared
remedies? (IPRs)– Market incentives vital but not enough– Need for green FDI and more public finance
• Differentiated commitments in common framework of accountability
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War on two fronts
• Fight both CC and poverty– Energy access for bottom billion(s)
• Integrate climate change and sustainable development– Don’t ignore climate change losers– Don’t subsidize development winners
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Contacts
• www.unfccc.int• www.ipcc.ch
• www.cait.wri.org• http://nsidc.org/index.html
