Gabriel Lojero, Mike Thomas, and Nick Gliozzi,
description
Transcript of Gabriel Lojero, Mike Thomas, and Nick Gliozzi,
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Gabriel Lojero, Mike Thomas, and Nick Gliozzi,
Lessons Learned
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HPC Surface Analysis, Monday 12Z
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Forecast Concern- Precip Type850 mb Analysis, Monday 12z
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Forecast Concern- Precip Type850 mb Analysis, Tuesday 00z
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National Radar 11:30Z
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National Radar 18:30Z
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National Radar 00:30Z
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Verification Procedure• Eliminated all Zero Categories - Easy: Dust (14), smoke (16), Wind Chill(18,19), Flood Categories (21-24), Big Snows (5,6,7,8), and Severe Weather(27), and IceStorm (11) - Lightning (25) was ruled out based on PSU lightining data on ewall - Visibilities from ASOS reports were > 0.5 mile (17)
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Verification Procedure The Search for High and Severe Winds - used Mesonet and ASOS reports and none reported winds greater than 15 kts so Snow Squall (3), High Winds (12), and Severe Winds (13) were neglected. - Even though there were 50-60kt winds at 850 mb, the layer between the surface and 850 mb was stable, not conducive for mixing to the surface.
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Verifying Snow Totals
• Flurries: 18z 13th – 12z 14th using NOHRSC interactive snow information and metars
• Snow Shower and Light Snow 12z 13th – 12z 14th with same method
• Were there moderate snow totals?• Eliminated Snow Squall, Heavy Snow, Very Heavy
Snow, and Blizzard based on snow totals and other criteria
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Verifying Snow Totals
• 12z 13th – 12z 14th
• NOHRSC interactive snow information
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Flurries• All zones that received measurable snowfall and zones
that traced snow after 18z using NOHRSC and metars
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Snow Shower• Verified using NOHRSC 12z-12z
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Light Snow• Verified using NOHRSC 12z-12z
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Was there Moderate Snow?
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Was there Moderate Snow? (Cont.)
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SLEET
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Where was there sleet?
Trained spotter reports sleet.
KLRF reported ice pellets.
KPOF, just across border, reported ice pellets.
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Confirming Sleet: Theory KSRC
KARG
KHKA
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Confirming Sleet: Theory
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Where was there sleet?
Theory Confirmed
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Sleet Verification
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FREEZING RAIN
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Where was there Freezing Rain?
Trained spotter reports FR.
KLIT reported FR.
KPOF, just across border, reported FR.
KRUE in zone 22 reported FR.
KMEM reported FR
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Where was there Freezing Rain?
Theory Confirmed
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Freezing Rain Verification
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Freeze/Frost• Verified using METARS
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Verification Procedure• Searching for Precipitation >= 0.5 inches
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Verification Procedure Precip >= 0.50 Inches Verification
• Zones 23-24, 32-33, 44, 63-64, 68-69, and 73-75
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T>40 F
39
39
39
39
41
41
41
43
40
40
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T>40 F Verification
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Lessons Learned
• Always look at a sounding to analyze stability parameter to determine if strong winds from aloft can mix down to the surface.
• Always look at observations first to determine the most likely precipitation type during a future time period.
• Verifying Precipitation amount: Mesonet and Cocorahs• ASOS stations do not have a brain (UP = Unknown
Precipitation) . Our job to go through the data to determine what actually happened.
• You can use soundings and visibilities to get a good idea of the type of precipitation.
• GARP = Confusing interface...but great data.