FY19 Q1 Performance Report › sitecontent › ... · 2018-10-09 · FY19 Q1 PERFORMANCE REPORT 2...

13
10 October 2018 FY19 Q1 Performance Report GENESIS ENERGY LIMITED

Transcript of FY19 Q1 Performance Report › sitecontent › ... · 2018-10-09 · FY19 Q1 PERFORMANCE REPORT 2...

Page 1: FY19 Q1 Performance Report › sitecontent › ... · 2018-10-09 · FY19 Q1 PERFORMANCE REPORT 2 FY19 Q1 Performance Summary - Customer churn improved by 5 percentage points to 16%

10 October 2018

FY19 Q1

Performance Report

G E N E S I S E N E R G Y L I M I T E D

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FY19 2Q1 PERFORMANCE REPORT

FY19 Q1 Performance Summary

- Customer churn improved by 5 percentage points to 16% compared to the previous year,with total customer numbers down 890 on Q4 FY18.

- Change in netback is flat in electricity at $107/MWh on pcp, 2% increase in gas netbackto $8.7/GJ, and 5% increase in LPG netback to $862/t.

- Total electricity sales volume was up 4% to 1,725 GWh, B2B increased 14%, offset by a3% fall in residential sales volumes.

- Total gas sales volume was up 8% to 2.7 PJ, with B2B up 16% on pcp.

- Average generation price received was $86/MWh, down 12% however remains elevatedbased on historical levels.

- Total generation volume was down 15% on pcp to 1,781 GWh. Carbon emissions weredown 32% on pcp to 392 ktCO2.

- Thermal generation down by 29% to 784 GWh due to lower swaption calls and marketgas shortages as a result of Pohokura outages. Renewable generation flat at 997 GWh.

- Field production was 94% of maximum capacity, down 2 percentage points on pcp.Genesis’ share of gas sales was down 5% to 3 PJ due to contract rebalancing.

- LPG production was up 21% on pcp to 13.5 kt with LPG yield at 4.43 t/TJ of gas produced,up 23% on pcp.

- Oil production was down 11% to 130 kbbl, due to natural decline in yield. 70 kbbl of oilsales were recorded, up 20% on pcp.

Genesis’ customer churn rate continues to improve following a foundational FY18, with our integrated portfolio and fuel mix providing benefits in the first quarter of FY19.Marc England, Chief Executive Officer

Customer

Wholesale

Kupe

Wholesale

WholesaleKupe

1. PCP is defined as the prior comparable period ie Q1 FY18, unless an alternative comparison is stated

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3

Customer Segment Performance

Highs Lows

14.2%

2.7 PJTotal gas sales

volumes8.1%

764 GWhB2B electricity

sales

1,725 GWhTotal Electricity

retail sales volumes4.1%

2.8%

960 GWhResidential electricity

sales volume

7%Genesis Brand Net

Promoter score climbs 6 ppt

DUAL FUEL CUSTOMER NUMBERS & CHURN (3 MONTH ROLLING AVERAGE)

Churn1

Down from 21.3% Q1 FY18 to 16.2% 5.1 ppt

FY19 Q1 PERFORMANCE REPORT

Total CustomersDown 890 on Q4 FY18

1. Genesis residential 3 month rolling average churn (excluding EOL)

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

102,000

104,000

106,000

108,000

110,000

112,000

Oct

-17

No

v-1

7

Dec

-17

Jan

-18

Feb

-18

Mar

-18

Ap

r-1

8

May

-18

Jun

-18

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18

Au

g-1

8

Sep

-18

Ch

urn

& T

ota

l Cu

sto

mer

%

Cu

sto

mer

Nu

mb

ers

Customers > 1 Product Total Customer Dual Fuel % (RHS) Dual Fuel Churn (RHS)

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4

Wholesale Segment Performance

$86/MWhAverage price received

for generation

103%LWAP / GWAP ratio

down due to portfolio optimisation

2 ppt

97.6%Equivalent Availability Factor (EAF) up from

Q4 FY18

392 ktCO2Generation emission

down

Highs Lows

32.1%

1,781 GWhTotal generation down due

to lower swaption calls and market gas outages

15.2%

FY19 Q1 PERFORMANCE REPORT

11 ppt

Rankine coal fuel %Consumption up due to

market gas outages19 ppt

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

$-

$50

$100

$150

$200

1-J

ul

6-J

ul

11

-Ju

l

16

-Ju

l

21

-Ju

l

26

-Ju

l

31

-Ju

l

5-A

ug

10

-Au

g

15

-Au

g

20

-Au

g

25

-Au

g

30

-Au

g

4-S

ep

9-S

ep

14

-Se

p

19

-Se

p

24

-Se

p

29

-Se

p

Lake Storage(GWh)

Wholesale Price($/MWh)

Benmore (BEN2201) Otahuhu (OTA2201)Storage Long Run Average (RHS) FY2019 Storage

Source: COMIT/Genesis Energy

DAILY AVERAGE WHOLESALE PRICES & NATIONAL HYDRO STORAGE

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5

Kupe Segment Performance

13.4 ktLPG sales up in

line with improved production yield 17.7%

1.7%

USD75/bblAverage Brent

Crude spot oil price

69.9 kbblKupe oil sales up

External Sales

GNE 46% Kupe share

130 kbbl Oil13.5 kt LPG

3.1 PJ Gas

Fuels Portfolio

Electricity Generation

Wholesale Market

Retail Customers

1,725 GWh Electricity

3.2 PJ Gas

2.7 PJ Gas

5.5 kt LPG

10.5 kt LPG

1,781 GWh Electricity

11.2 PJ Gas 1.2 PJ Coal

0 GJ Diesel

997 GWh Hydro

6 GWh Wind

784 GWh Thermal

70 kbbl Oil

16.3 kt LPG

0.8 kt LPG

External Purchases

8.1 PJ Gas

1.3 PJ Coal

2.8 kt LPG

0.1 PJ Coal

44.5%

Q1 FY19 INTEGRATED PHYSICAL ENERGY FLOWS1

Highs Lows

4.43 t/TJLPG yield up, with production plant

fully available 22.7%

1. LPG difference represents movement in storage

3.1 PJGas production down slightly

130 kbblOil production down due to natural yield

decline

FY19 Q1 PERFORMANCE REPORT

20.2%10.8%

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Glossary

FY19 Q1 PERFORMANCE REPORT

CUSTOMER

Brand Net Promoter Score Based on survey question "How likely would you be to recommend Genesis Energy/Energy Online to your friends or family?"

Electricity Market Share Market share based on Electricity Authority data for the end of quarter

Gas Market Share Market share based on Gas Industry Company data for the end of quarter

Customers Electricity and gas customers are defined by single customer view, regardless of number of connections (ICP's)

Single Customer View Represents unique customers which may have multiple ICP's

ICP Installation Connection Point, a connection point that is both occupied and has not been disconnected (Active-Occupied)

Customer Churn Based on losing and gaining accounts under a Single Customer View

MVP Minimal Viable Product

Resi, SME, C&I Residential, small and medium enterprises and commercial & industrial customers

B2B Business to Business, including both SME and C&I

Volume Weighted Average Electricity Selling Price - $/MWh Average selling price for customers including lines/transmission and distribution and after prompt payment discount

Volume Weighted Average Gas Selling Price - $/MWh Average selling price for customers including lines/transmission and distribution and after prompt payment discount

Average Retail Electricity Purchase Price - LWAP ($/MWh) Excludes settlements from electricity derivatives.

LPG Customer Connections Defined as number of customers

Bottled LPG Sales (tonnes) Represents 45kg LPG bottle sales

Other Bulk and SME LPG Sales (tonnes) Represents bulk, 3rd party distributors and SME sales

Wholesale LPG Sales (tonnes) Represents wholesale, export sales and transfers to Huntly power station

Electricity Sales - Wholesale (GWh) Includes contracts for difference and options (excluding futures)

Electricity Purchases - Wholesale (GWh) Includes contracts for difference and options (excluding futures)

Retail Netback ($/MWh) Customer Segment EBITDAF plus electricity and gas purchase cost divided by total electricity and gas sales volumes

GENERATION

Coal (GWh) Coal generation is calculated by applying coal burn to monthly average heat rates

Average Price Received for Generation - GWAP ($/MWh) Excludes settlements from electricity derivatives.

Coal Used In Internal Generation (PJ) Results have been revised to reflect changes in coal kilo tonnes to PJ conversion rate and volume methodology

Rankine's Fuelled by Coal (%) The proportion of coal used in the Rankine units

Equipment Availability Factor (EAF) The percentage of time a power station is available to generate electricity

Forced Outage Factor (FOF) The percentage of time a power station is unavailable to generate electricity due to unplanned failure or defect.

WHOLESALE

Weighted Average Fuel Cost ($/MWh) Total cost of fuel burnt plus emissions on fuel burnt divided by total generation (thermal, hydro and wind)

CORPORATE

Total Recordable Injury Frequency Rate Rolling 12 month TRIFR per 200,000 hours worked for employees and contractors

Headcount Based on full time equivalents, excluding contractors

KUPE

Oil Hedge Levels (%) % hedged for remainder of FY as % of forecast sales

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7

Customer Metrics

FY19 Q1 PERFORMANCE REPORT1. Historical customer numbers restated post LPG integration

CUSTOMER SEGMENT Q1 FY19 Q1 FY18 % Change Var. YTD FY19 YTD FY18 % Change Var.

CUSTOMER

Brand Net Promoter Score - Genesis Energy (%) 7.0% 1.0% 600.0% 6.0%

Customer Churn (3 month rolling average, %) 16.2% 21.3% (23.9%) (5.1%)

Electricity Netback ($/MWh) $106.8 $107.0 (0.2%) ($0.22) $106.8 $107.0 (0.2%) ($0.22)

Gas Netback ($/GJ) $8.7 $8.5 2.2% $0.19 $8.7 $8.5 2.2% $0.19

LPG Netback ($/t) $862 $823 4.8% $39.53 $862 $823 4.8% $39.53

CUSTOMER NUMBERS1

Electricity Only Customers 338,551 352,007 (3.8%) (13,456)

Gas Only Customers 18,369 18,277 0.5% 92

LPG Only Customers 35,190 34,719 1.4% 471

Customers > 1 Product 111,127 105,103 5.7% 6,024

Total Customers 503,237 510,106 (1.3%) (6,869)

Electricity ICPs Active-Occupied 502,181 508,977 (1.3%) (6,796)

Gas ICPs Active-Occupied 106,253 105,682 0.5% 571

Total ICPs 608,434 614,659 (1.0%) (6,225)

VOLUMES AND PRICE

Volume Weighted Average Electricity Selling Price - Resi ($/MWh) $247.74 $245.23 1.0% $2.51 $247.74 $245.23 1.0% $2.51

Volume Weighted Average Electricity Selling Price - SME ($/MWh) $215.06 $214.56 0.2% $0.49 $215.06 $214.56 0.2% $0.49

Volume Weighted Average Electricity Selling Price - C&I ($/MWh) $132.61 $133.68 (0.8%) ($1.07) $132.61 $133.68 (0.8%) ($1.07)

Residential Electricity Sales (GWh) 960 988 (2.8%) (28) 960 988 (2.8%) (28)

SME Electricity Sales (GWh) 274 285 (3.8%) (11) 274 285 (3.8%) (11)

C&I Electricity Sales (GWh) 490 384 27.5% 106 490 384 27.5% 106

Electricity Sales - Retail (GWh) 1,725 1,657 4.1% 67 1,725 1,657 4.1% 67

Electricity Purchases - Retail (GWh) 1,831 1,756 4.3% 75 1,831 1,756 4.3% 75

Average Retail Electricity Purchase Price - LWAP ($/MWh) $88.11 $102.06 (13.7%) ($13.95) $88.11 $102.06 (13.7%) ($13.95)

Volume Weighted Average Gas Selling Price ($/GJ) $22.00 $23.50 (6.4%) ($1.50) $22.00 $23.50 (6.4%) ($1.50)

Residential Gas Sales (PJ) 1.1 1.1 (2.0%) (0.0) 1.1 1.1 (2.0%) (0.0)

SME Gas Sales (PJ) 0.5 0.5 21.2% 0.1 0.5 0.5 21.2% 0.1

C&I Gas Sales (PJ) 1.0 0.9 14.1% 0.1 1.0 0.9 14.1% 0.1

Retail Gas Sales (PJ) 2.7 2.5 8.1% 0.2 2.7 2.5 8.1% 0.2 LPG

LPG Customer Connections (#) 64,090 57,563 11.3% 6,527

Bottled LPG Sales (tonnes) 4,817 4,514 6.7% 304 4,817 4,514 6.7% 304

Other Bulk & SME LPG sales (tonnes) 5,705 5,846 (2.4%) (141) 5,705 5,846 (2.4%) (141)

Total LPG Sales Volumes (tonnes) 10,522 10,360 1.6% 162 10,522 10,360 1.6% 162

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8

Wholesale Metrics

FY19 Q1 PERFORMANCE REPORT

WHOLESALE SEGMENT Q1 FY19 Q1 FY18 % Change Var. YTD FY19 YTD FY18 % Change Var.

GENERATION

Gas (GWh) 688 921 (25.3%) (232) 688 921 (25.3%) (232)

Coal (GWh) 96 177 (45.8%) (81) 96 177 (45.8%) (81)

Total Thermal (GWh) 784 1,098 (28.6%) (314) 784 1,098 (28.6%) (314)

Hydro (GWh) 991 996 (0.5%) (5) 991 996 (0.5%) (5)

Wind (GWh) 6 5 11.1% 1 6 5 11.1% 1

Total Renewable (GWh) 997 1,001 (0.4%) (4) 997 1,001 (0.4%) (4)

Total Generation (GWh) 1,781 2,099 (15.2%) (318) 1,781 2,099 (15.2%) (318)

Average Price Received for Generation - GWAP ($/MWh) $85.65 $97.31 (12.0%) ($11.66) $85.65 $97.31 (12.0%) ($11.66)Generation Emissions (ktCO2) 392 577 (32.1%) (186) 392 577 (32.1%) (186)

Generation Carbon Intensity (tCO2/GWh) 220 275 (20.0%) (55) 220 275 (20.0%) (55)

Forced Outage Factor (FOF) 0.2% 0.2% (1.5%) (0.0%) 0.2% 0.2% (1.5%) (0.0%)

Equipment Availability Factor (EAF) 97.6% 97.3% 0.3% 0.3% 97.6% 97.3% 0.3% 0.3%

Rankine Output (GWh) 124 281 (56.0%) (157) 124 281 (56.0%) (157)

Rankines Fueled by Coal (%) 82% 63% 30.3% 19% 82% 63% 30% 19%

WHOLESALE

Gas Purchases (PJ) 11.2 12.6 (11.0%) (1.4) 11.2 12.6 (11.0%) (1.4)

Coal Purchases (PJ) 1.3 1.0 34.1% 0.3 1.3 1.0 34.1% 0.3

Electricity Purchases - Wholesale (GWh) 291 488 (40.4%) (197) 291 488 (40.4%) (197)

Electricity Sales - Wholesale (GWh) 545 706 (22.9%) (161) 545 706 (22.9%) (161)

Wholesale Gas Sales (PJ) 3.2 2.9 10.2% 0.3 3.2 2.9 10.2% 0.3

Wholesale Coal Sales (PJ) 0.1 0.1 3.8% 0.0 0.1 0.1 3.8% 0.0

Wholesale LPG Sales (tonnes) 6,358 9,067 (29.9%) (2,709) 6,358 9,067 (29.9%) (2,709)

Gas Used In Internal Generation (PJ) 5.3 7.2 (27.2%) (2.0) 5.3 7.2 (27.2%) (2.0)

Coal Used In Internal Generation (PJ) 1.2 2.0 (41.5%) (0.8) 1.2 2.0 (41.5%) (0.8)

LWAP/GWAP Ratio (%) 103% 105% (1.9%) (2.0%) 103% 105% (1.9%) (2.0%)

Weighted Average Fuel Cost ($/MWh) $29.96 $33.97 (11.8%) ($4.01) $29.96 $33.97 (11.8%) ($4.01)

Coal Stockpile - closing balance (kilotonnes) 312 297 5.0% 15

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FY18 9

Kupe and Other Metrics

1. TRIFR now being reported to include contractors. Prior period has been restated on same basis

Q1 PERFORMANCE REPORT

KUPE SEGMENT Q1 FY19 Q1 FY18 % Change Var. YTD FY19 YTD FY18 % Change Var.

KUPE

Gas Production (PJ) 3.1 3.1 (1.7%) (0.1) 3.1 3.1 (1.7%) (0.1)

Gas Sales (PJ) 3.0 3.1 (5.1%) (0.2) 3.0 3.1 (5.1%) (0.2)

Oil Production (kbbl) 130.0 145.8 (10.8%) (15.8) 130.0 145.8 (10.8%) (15.8)

Oil Production Yield (bbl/TJ) 42.5 46.9 (9.3%) (4.4) 42.5 46.9 (9.3%) (4.4)

Oil Sales (kbbl) 69.9 58.2 20.2% 11.8 69.9 58.2 20.2% 11.8

Realised Oil Price (NZD/bbl) $78.18 $84.99 (8.0%) ($6.81) $78.18 $84.99 (8.0%) ($6.81)

Average Brent Crude Oil (USD/bbl) $75.27 $52.08 44.5% $23.19 $75.27 $52.08 44.5% $23.19

LPG Production (kt) 13.5 11.2 20.6% 2.3 13.5 11.2 20.6% 2.3

LPG Production Yield (t/TJ) 4.4 3.6 22.7% 0.8 4.4 3.6 22.7% 0.8

LPG Sales (kt) 13.4 11.4 17.7% 2.0 13.4 11.4 17.7% 2.0

OTHER Q1 FY19 Q1 FY18 % Change Var. YTD FY19 YTD FY18 % Change Var.

CORPORATE

Headcount (FTE) 1,052 928 13.4% 124

Total Recordable Injury Frequency Rate1 1.33 1.36 (2.2%) (0.03)

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10

Appendix: Customer Segment

FY19 Q1 PERFORMANCE REPORT

0

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GW

h

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h

ELECTRICITY SALES VOLUMES (GWh)

Quarterly C&I Sales Volumes Quarterly Resi Sales Volumes

Quarterly SME Sales Volumes Rolling 12month Sales Volume (RHS)

0.0

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RETAIL GAS SALES VOLUMES (PJ)

Quarterly C&I Sales Volumes Quarterly Resi Sales Volumes

Quarterly SME Sales Volumes Rolling 12month Sales Volume (RHS)

0

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Quarterly Retail LPG Sales Volumes

Quarterly Bulk/SME LPG Sales Volume

Rolling 12month Sales Volume (RHS)

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11

Appendix: Wholesale Segment

FY19 Q1 PERFORMANCE REPORT

0

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GWh

NEW ZEALAND DAILY STORAGE

91 year Average 12month Rolling

Source: COMIT

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WAIKAREMOANA STORAGE vs LONG RUN AVERAGE - Q1 FY19

Waikaremoana Storage

Source: COMIT

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TEKAPO STORAGE vs LONG RUN AVERAGE - Q1 FY19

Tekapo Storage

Source: COMIT

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12

Appendix: Wholesale Segment

PLANT PERFORMANCE

FY19 Q1 PERFORMANCE REPORT

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-15

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Forc

ed O

uta

ge F

acto

r (F

OF)

%

Equ

ipm

ent

Ava

ilab

ility

Fac

tor

(EA

F) %

Monthly EAF Monthly FOF

0

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Q1 FY19 Q1 FY18 Q1 YTD FY19 Q1 YTD FY18

GW

h

Hau Nui Wind Farm

Tekapo A and B power stations

Waikaremoana Power Scheme

Tongariro Power Scheme

Huntly Unit 6

Huntly Unit 5

Huntly Units 1 to 4 Gas

Huntly Units 1 to 4 Coal

GENERATION BY POWER STATION

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13

Appendix: Kupe Segment

OIL PRICE AND FOREX RISK MANAGEMENTBRENT CRUDE OIL SPOT PRICE (USD/bbl)

KUPE GAS VOLUMES (GENESIS SHARE, PJ) KUPE OIL PRODCUTION VOLUMES (GENESIS SHARE, kbbl)

FY19 Q1 PERFORMANCE REPORT

$0

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12 mths to Sep17 12 mths to Sep18 FORWARD RISK MANAGEMENT

Oil Price Hedges % Hedged Average Oil Price

1-12 months 82% $59.57

13-24 months 62% $56.51

25-36 months 29% $63.43

USD/NZD Hedges Rate Rate

1-12 months 64% 0.690

13-24 months 37% 0.697

25-36 months 21% 0.683

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FY1

8

Q4

FY1

8

Q1

FY1

9

PJPJ

Quarterly Sales Volume Rolling 12 Months Sales Volume (RHS)

-

100.

200.

300.

400.

500.

600.

-

20.

40.

60.

80.

100.

120.

140.

160.

180.

Q1

FY1

4

Q2

FY1

4

Q3

FY1

4

Q4

FY1

4

Q1

FY1

5

Q2

FY1

5

Q3

FY1

5

Q4

FY1

5

Q1

FY1

6

Q2

FY1

6

Q3

FY1

6

Q4

FY1

6

Q1

FY1

7

Q2

FY1

7

Q3

FY1

7

Q4

FY1

7

Q1

FY1

8

Q2

FY1

8

Q3

FY1

8

Q4

FY1

8

Q1

FY1

9

kbblkbblQuarterly Production Volume Rolling 12 Months Sales Volume (RHS)