FX weekly: This is MMT… How should you trade it?
21
11 October 2020 FX weekly: This is MMT… How should you trade it? Andreas Steno Larsen Trump wants to spend more than both Mnuchin and Pelosi, while the Fed will continue purchasing bonds until inflation averages around 2% over time. This is almost textbook MMT even if no-one is willing to admit it. How should you trade it? If you want to receive a copy of FX weekly directly in your inbox, you can sign up via this link. Table 1: Our current convictions Quote of the week: “By contrast, the risks of overdoing it (stimulus) seem, for now, to be smaller” Jay Powell on Tuesday The Donald wants more stimulus than both Mnuchin and Pelosi and he wants to see regular people getting an increase in the disposable income. Those were the key take-aways from his interview with Rush Limbaugh on Saturday, but it still seems like the Congress is not willing to play ball on a fiscal deal before the election. Donald Trumps era has been characterized by an immense budget deficit without historical precedent paired with a pressure on the Federal Reserve to monetize the deficit. Historical deficit sizes and a central bank buying bonds until inflation averages 2% or more over time (AIT). If it looks like MMT, talks like MMT, and quacks like MMT, then it probably already is MMT, even if no one is willing to admit it. This trend is probably not going to end no matter who wins the election in November. Keep trading like MMT is the name of the game. e-markets.nordea.com/article/60553/fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
Transcript of FX weekly: This is MMT… How should you trade it?
11 October 2020
FX weekly This is MMThellipHow should you trade it
Andreas Steno Larsen
Trump wants to spend more than both Mnuchin and Pelosi while the Fed willcontinue purchasing bonds until inflation averages around 2 over time Thisis almost textbook MMT even if no-one is willing to admit it How should youtrade it
If you want to receive a copy of FX weekly directly in your inbox you can sign up via this link
Table 1 Our current convictions
Quote of the week
ldquoBy contrast the risks of overdoing it (stimulus) seem for now to be smallerrdquo Jay Powell on Tuesday
The Donald wants more stimulus than both Mnuchin and Pelosi and he wants to see regular peoplegetting an increase in the disposable income Those were the key take-aways from his interview with RushLimbaugh on Saturday but it still seems like the Congress is not willing to play ball on a fiscal deal beforethe election Donald Trumps era has been characterized by an immense budget deficit without historicalprecedent paired with a pressure on the Federal Reserve to monetize the deficit Historical deficit sizes and acentral bank buying bonds until inflation averages 2 or more over time (AIT)
If it looks like MMT talks like MMT and quacks like MMT then it probably already is MMT even ifno one is willing to admit it This trend is probably not going to end no matter who wins the election inNovember Keep trading like MMT is the name of the game
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
Chart 1 The widest deficit in modern history
Even if Mnuchin is working towards a smaller fiscal deal than Trump wants it is still evident that Mnuchinand the US Treasury has prefunded a yuge fiscal package The USD 1700bn parked at the TreasuryGeneral Account at the Fed is ready for use and could be bazookarsquoed as soon as the Congress allows it Thiscould lead to a big rally into year-end if markets conclude that the election result opens the door for a quickfiscal deal into 2021
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
Chart 2 The USD liquidity is ready for use We are just waiting for the US Congress to allowit
In the meanwhile the USD could probably remain bid over the coming month or two as the USD liquidityimpulse remains tight due to the prefunding of the fiscal deal When the US Treasury hoards cash at theTreasury General Account at a faster pace than Jay Powell monetizes the debt the USD usually performsdecently well This leaves two dierent conclusions on two dierent horizons for the USD First a tad strongerbefore clearly weaker
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
Chart 3 The USD liquidity impulse speaks in favour of stronger USD short-term but notmedium-term
The AIT-regime from the Federal Reserve is the focal point for the USD weakening narrative The USTreasuryrsquos only constraint is basically the 2 inflation target As long as inflation doesnrsquot average above 2the Fed will keep printing and keep monetizing the truckload of debt This also means that we still havecascades of money printing and fiscal stimulus ahead even if 20 of all outstanding USDs have already beencreated in 2020 alone Fed members have slowly but surely started to roll out their ldquoaye-ayerdquo rhetoric onincreased QE as soon as a fiscal deal is in place Markets should accordingly prepare for a reflationaryscenario during 2021
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
Chart 4 Will the explosion in M2 lead PCE prices higher over time M2 has left the belowchart for outer space
Loretta Mester from the FOMC reiterated that the Fed is debating whether to Twist its asset holdingstowards longer maturities in the AIT-regime If expectations continue to build on a reflationary environmentit may prove dicult to contain the curve steepening pressure unless new measures are introduced Thebig dierence from historical Twist operations to the potential upcoming one is that Twist operations weretypically undertaken without massive net asset purchases
This time the Fed will continue buying a lot during a potential Operation Twist This is a major dierencein terms of how to view it from a market perspective When the Fed Twisted in 20112012 it led to a flattercurve alongside weaker growth expectations In 2021 it may lead to the opposite if we assume that theFed will increase its purchases meanwhile
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
Chart 5 The USD yield curve slope (10yr-2yr) during times of QE and Twisting
A Twist operation (towards longer maturities) will obviously in itself flatten the curve but the Fed has usuallyended up steepening the curve during QE programs due to the positive side eects of the added USDliquidity The simple modus operandi is the following Bond purchases -gt more USD liquidity -gt better EMperformance -gt repricing of global growth -gt steeper curves
The curve outcome also depends on how aggressively the Fed intends to increase the WAM of the SOMA-portfolio In 2011-2012 the Fed increased the maturity from 6yrs to roughly 10yrs during the Twist operationWe doubt that the Fed would be willing to increase the WAM above 10yrs which makes the scope for a Twistoperation less material this time around due to the starting point just below 75yrs
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
Chart 6 The weighted average maturity of the Fed bond holdings during times of QE andTwisting
Our initial conclusion from the AIT-regime was that Emerging Markets would be on the receiving endof flows due to the subsequent very benign USD liquidity outlook It has already partly been the case basedon our EM capital flow proxy indicator Inflows to EM range around 05 standard-deviations above historicalaverages which could be seen as a sign that investors have already started to bet on EM as a consequence ofthe AIT-regime It does not mean that positioning is super long in EM but it is definitely not short either ndash atleast not outside of Brazil
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
Chart 7 EM has already seen a fair share of inflows over the past 2-3 months
Those who believe that the ldquocarry-environmentrdquo will continue to remain benign should probably look towardsINR CNH and maybe ZAR as attractive carry-to-vol bets even if the Chinese authorities may try to dampenthe momentum in CNH longs
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
Chart 8 Carry-to-vol heatmap in selected USD vs EM pairs
The Chinese authorities decided to reduce the cost of shorting Yuan by lowering FX forward reserveratios from 20 to 0 which eectively works to cheapen short positions in Yuan vs foreign FX Theopposite move was implemented roughly two years back when USDCNY traded towards 700 but at leastinitially had fairly limited impact We also doubt that this move is enough to turn the tide on the current soliddownwards momentum in USDCNH due to the attractive carry to vol in USDCNH shorts Cuts from thePBoC or higher USD rates are needed to really turn the tide
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
Chart 9 USDCNY vs deposit reserve ratios in China
The USD will likely remain cheap in ratesbasis terms in to year-end as the potential wave of USDliquidity from the US Treasury General Account paired with USD lending in FX swaps from banks stuckwith capital otherwise ldquoreservedrdquo for stock buy backs will keep USD funding markets afloat Our fair-valueindicator supports the notion that EUBSC (3m FX basis EUR vs USD) should trade towards 0 or even slightlyabove in the final stage of the year which hints that the year-turn could still be priced too expensively in USD(gt2 annualized) If the USD cheapens into year-end it will also come with repercussions for Scandi markets
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
Chart 10 3M EUR vs USD fx basis fair value model based on USD liquidity (assuming anadded 800bn from the US Treasury)
Scandi markets Year-end trades to make Buy SEK pay front-end SEK rates
Anders Tegnells fanbase is increasing worldwide the USD is cheapening over year-turn there is a limitedshort-term scope for a dovish repricing of the Riksbank while we could see a potential risk rally after theUS election The list of positive SEK arguments is growing STIBOR 3m has been compressed during thefirst week of October due to the year-turn pricing and the reverse relationship to the price of USDs (moreexpensive USDs lower Stibor) The SEK could be a winner into the latter part of the year also if STIBOR startsto rebound alongside a cheapening of the USD year-turn The 3M fixing bottomed out 20th of November in2017 19th of October in 2018 and 11th of October in 2019 and the Dec contract is still pricing below thecurrent fixing for this year It might be time to pay and go long SEK
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
Chart 11 Our proxy StiborOIS model hints at upside potential into year-end
The NOK is more of a dark horse into year-end since we are approaching the worst season of the year forthe Norwegian currency The Q4 negativity will probably not be front-runned to the same extent as we sawin 2019 when everyone and their mother went long EURNOK into October due to the poor seasonal NOKperformance The NOK ultimately ended up performing in December which may have put an end to this non-fundamental Q4 weakening story We basically see no fundamental reason behind the year-end slump inNOK outside of Norges Bank halting its FX purchases during the second half of December The NOK is hencemore of wildcard than SEK but it still looks fundamentally cheap
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
Chart 12 NOK usually struggles during Q4 but last years December performance may haveturned the tide
Our running track-record is always attached here
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Andreas Steno LarsenChief Global FXFI Strategistandreasstenolarsennordeacom+45 55 46 72 29
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
Chart 1 The widest deficit in modern history
Even if Mnuchin is working towards a smaller fiscal deal than Trump wants it is still evident that Mnuchinand the US Treasury has prefunded a yuge fiscal package The USD 1700bn parked at the TreasuryGeneral Account at the Fed is ready for use and could be bazookarsquoed as soon as the Congress allows it Thiscould lead to a big rally into year-end if markets conclude that the election result opens the door for a quickfiscal deal into 2021
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
Chart 2 The USD liquidity is ready for use We are just waiting for the US Congress to allowit
In the meanwhile the USD could probably remain bid over the coming month or two as the USD liquidityimpulse remains tight due to the prefunding of the fiscal deal When the US Treasury hoards cash at theTreasury General Account at a faster pace than Jay Powell monetizes the debt the USD usually performsdecently well This leaves two dierent conclusions on two dierent horizons for the USD First a tad strongerbefore clearly weaker
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
Chart 3 The USD liquidity impulse speaks in favour of stronger USD short-term but notmedium-term
The AIT-regime from the Federal Reserve is the focal point for the USD weakening narrative The USTreasuryrsquos only constraint is basically the 2 inflation target As long as inflation doesnrsquot average above 2the Fed will keep printing and keep monetizing the truckload of debt This also means that we still havecascades of money printing and fiscal stimulus ahead even if 20 of all outstanding USDs have already beencreated in 2020 alone Fed members have slowly but surely started to roll out their ldquoaye-ayerdquo rhetoric onincreased QE as soon as a fiscal deal is in place Markets should accordingly prepare for a reflationaryscenario during 2021
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
Chart 4 Will the explosion in M2 lead PCE prices higher over time M2 has left the belowchart for outer space
Loretta Mester from the FOMC reiterated that the Fed is debating whether to Twist its asset holdingstowards longer maturities in the AIT-regime If expectations continue to build on a reflationary environmentit may prove dicult to contain the curve steepening pressure unless new measures are introduced Thebig dierence from historical Twist operations to the potential upcoming one is that Twist operations weretypically undertaken without massive net asset purchases
This time the Fed will continue buying a lot during a potential Operation Twist This is a major dierencein terms of how to view it from a market perspective When the Fed Twisted in 20112012 it led to a flattercurve alongside weaker growth expectations In 2021 it may lead to the opposite if we assume that theFed will increase its purchases meanwhile
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
Chart 5 The USD yield curve slope (10yr-2yr) during times of QE and Twisting
A Twist operation (towards longer maturities) will obviously in itself flatten the curve but the Fed has usuallyended up steepening the curve during QE programs due to the positive side eects of the added USDliquidity The simple modus operandi is the following Bond purchases -gt more USD liquidity -gt better EMperformance -gt repricing of global growth -gt steeper curves
The curve outcome also depends on how aggressively the Fed intends to increase the WAM of the SOMA-portfolio In 2011-2012 the Fed increased the maturity from 6yrs to roughly 10yrs during the Twist operationWe doubt that the Fed would be willing to increase the WAM above 10yrs which makes the scope for a Twistoperation less material this time around due to the starting point just below 75yrs
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
Chart 6 The weighted average maturity of the Fed bond holdings during times of QE andTwisting
Our initial conclusion from the AIT-regime was that Emerging Markets would be on the receiving endof flows due to the subsequent very benign USD liquidity outlook It has already partly been the case basedon our EM capital flow proxy indicator Inflows to EM range around 05 standard-deviations above historicalaverages which could be seen as a sign that investors have already started to bet on EM as a consequence ofthe AIT-regime It does not mean that positioning is super long in EM but it is definitely not short either ndash atleast not outside of Brazil
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
Chart 7 EM has already seen a fair share of inflows over the past 2-3 months
Those who believe that the ldquocarry-environmentrdquo will continue to remain benign should probably look towardsINR CNH and maybe ZAR as attractive carry-to-vol bets even if the Chinese authorities may try to dampenthe momentum in CNH longs
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
Chart 8 Carry-to-vol heatmap in selected USD vs EM pairs
The Chinese authorities decided to reduce the cost of shorting Yuan by lowering FX forward reserveratios from 20 to 0 which eectively works to cheapen short positions in Yuan vs foreign FX Theopposite move was implemented roughly two years back when USDCNY traded towards 700 but at leastinitially had fairly limited impact We also doubt that this move is enough to turn the tide on the current soliddownwards momentum in USDCNH due to the attractive carry to vol in USDCNH shorts Cuts from thePBoC or higher USD rates are needed to really turn the tide
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
Chart 9 USDCNY vs deposit reserve ratios in China
The USD will likely remain cheap in ratesbasis terms in to year-end as the potential wave of USDliquidity from the US Treasury General Account paired with USD lending in FX swaps from banks stuckwith capital otherwise ldquoreservedrdquo for stock buy backs will keep USD funding markets afloat Our fair-valueindicator supports the notion that EUBSC (3m FX basis EUR vs USD) should trade towards 0 or even slightlyabove in the final stage of the year which hints that the year-turn could still be priced too expensively in USD(gt2 annualized) If the USD cheapens into year-end it will also come with repercussions for Scandi markets
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
Chart 10 3M EUR vs USD fx basis fair value model based on USD liquidity (assuming anadded 800bn from the US Treasury)
Scandi markets Year-end trades to make Buy SEK pay front-end SEK rates
Anders Tegnells fanbase is increasing worldwide the USD is cheapening over year-turn there is a limitedshort-term scope for a dovish repricing of the Riksbank while we could see a potential risk rally after theUS election The list of positive SEK arguments is growing STIBOR 3m has been compressed during thefirst week of October due to the year-turn pricing and the reverse relationship to the price of USDs (moreexpensive USDs lower Stibor) The SEK could be a winner into the latter part of the year also if STIBOR startsto rebound alongside a cheapening of the USD year-turn The 3M fixing bottomed out 20th of November in2017 19th of October in 2018 and 11th of October in 2019 and the Dec contract is still pricing below thecurrent fixing for this year It might be time to pay and go long SEK
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
Chart 11 Our proxy StiborOIS model hints at upside potential into year-end
The NOK is more of a dark horse into year-end since we are approaching the worst season of the year forthe Norwegian currency The Q4 negativity will probably not be front-runned to the same extent as we sawin 2019 when everyone and their mother went long EURNOK into October due to the poor seasonal NOKperformance The NOK ultimately ended up performing in December which may have put an end to this non-fundamental Q4 weakening story We basically see no fundamental reason behind the year-end slump inNOK outside of Norges Bank halting its FX purchases during the second half of December The NOK is hencemore of wildcard than SEK but it still looks fundamentally cheap
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
Chart 12 NOK usually struggles during Q4 but last years December performance may haveturned the tide
Our running track-record is always attached here
Previous FX weeklies
FX weekly Corona Trump (02 Oct)
FX weekly Grin and Barrett (27 Sep)
FX weekly AIT is maybe not as dovish as we thought (20 Sep)
FX weekly AIT means easier financial conditions (13 Sep)
FX weekly Good luck Powell (23 Aug)
middotFX weekly USD to be put in the Jackson Hole (16 Aug)
middotFX weekly Peoples QE (09 Aug)
middotFX weekly USD will remain the No1 reserve currency (02 Aug)
middotFX weekly Kanye vs Trump vs Biden (05 Jul)
middotFX weekly Europe vs US 1-0 (28 Jun)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
middotFX weekly Should we fear a second lock-down (21 Jun)
middotFX weekly USD liquidity is not going to be as ample (14 Jun)
middotFX weekly EURphoria and panic-YCC (07 Jun)
middotFX weekly An EU solution to a EUR problem (31 May)
middotFX weekly Time to buy a EUR lottery ticket (24 May)
middotFX weekly The trade deal was always born to die (17 May)
middotFX weekly How to trade NIRP coming to America (10 May)
middotFX weekly The rise of the Virolocracy (03 May)
middotFX weekly The EUR-tyranny of the minority (27 Apr)
middotFX weekly How to glue together the EUR-ship again (20 Apr)
middotFX weekly The flipside of Oprahnomics(13 Apr)
middotFX weekly USD needs to weaken or else Plaza Accord 20 is likely (06 Apr)
middotFX weekly Spraying the world with money instead of with disinfectant (29 Mar)
middotFX weekly There will be a crisis and new instruments will be created (22 Mar)
middotFX weekly Sweden and UK are the odd ones out (15 Mar)
middotFX weekly A big bucket of bummerballs (08 Mar)
middotFX weekly A preppers guide to trading Corona (01 Mar)
middotFX weekly Get ready for YCC (23 Feb)
middotFX weekly Mini Mike and the Mechanics (16 Feb)
middotFX weekly Feds balance sheet may need to grow more (09 Feb)
middotFX weekly Did the Virus originate in Norway (02 Feb)
middotFX weekly Mnuchin to trick Fed into more POMO (26 Jan)
middotFX weekly A green bubble to save the world (19 Jan)
middotFX weekly Bad news for NIRP-haters (12 Jan)
middotFX weekly Coupon-bearing securities smell of QE4 (05 Jan)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
middotFX weekly The Riksbank is not a leading indicator of the ECB (22 Dec)
middotFX weekly Merry Christmas from the POTUS (15 Dec)
middotFX weekly Why this is not 20152016 all over again (08 Dec)
middotFX weekly Waiting for Godot (01 Dec)
middotFX weekly Get ready for Climate QE 2 (24 Nov)
middotFX weekly FX space yet to corroborate the reflationistas (17 Nov)
middotFX weekly Dont extrapolate the 60 Bs (10 Nov)
middotFX weekly 99 problems but the NOK aint one (3 Nov)
middotFX weekly Something big just happened (27 Oct)
middotFX weekly The QE train to nowhere (20 Oct)
middotFX weekly The 50 Brsquos caused the downturn so what about the 60 Brsquos (13 Oct)
middotFX weekly Is everything falling apart (6 Oct)
middotFX weekly A new path for USD liquidity (29 Sep)
middotFX weekly Soft QE in October (22 Sep)
middotFX weekly Welcome to the birthday party (15 Sep)
middotFX weekly An early santa rally (08 Sep)
middotFX weekly Can you smell the Sushi yet (01 Sep)
middotFX weekly Mo taris mo cuts but whorsquos Sho Nu (25 Aug)
middotFX weekly First havens then sell confetti (18 Aug)
middotFX weekly The liquidity doom loop (11 Aug)
middotFX weekly Buy Treasuries Short Scandis Wear Diamonds (04 Aug)
middotFX weekly Lagarde better practice her Rhine dancing (28 Jul)
middotFX weekly Go big or go home (21 Jul)
middotFX weekly The liquidity plot thickens (14 Jul)
middotFX weekly e-scooters are silly (07Jul)
middotFX weekly One is exausted the other is nuts(30 Jun)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
middotFX weekly Time to bring in Steven Seagal 2 (23 Jun)
middotFX weekly Get ready for climate QE (16 Jun)
middotFX weekly Cut cut cut cut (09 Jun)
middotFX weekly The absolute madman (02 Jun)
middotFX weekly Will Xi be Nikithared (26 May)
middotFX weekly Trade war ping pong (19 May)
middotFX weekly A stairway to heaven for Krona shorts (12 May)
middotFX weekly Mnuchin to bail-out Fed (05 May)
middotFX weekly 3 reasons why the USD has been resurgent (28 Apr)
middotFX weekly No doomsday (yet) (21 Apr)
middotFX weekly In EUR we trust (14 Apr)
middotFX weekly Crouching Tiger Hidden Inflation Dragon (07 Apr)
middotFX weekly There is a smell of 2016 in the air (31 Mar)
middotFX weekly Dear Mr Powell (24 Mar)
middotFX weekly The devils advocate (17 Mar)
middotFX weekly Mario Bla-blaghi (10 Mar)
middotFX weekly Chinese reflation (3 Mar)
middotFX weekly QT cannot run forever (24 Feb)
middotFX weekly The USD is now in Trumps hands (17 Feb)
middotFX weekly Time to care about Euro area politics again (10 Feb)
middotFX weekly Is Powell turning into a MAGA-man (03 Feb)
middotFX weekly On climate angst and fake news (27 Jan)
middotFX weekly The Mnuchin bailout (20 Jan)
middotFX weekly FX weekly Cause Im a flip-flopper yes I am (13 Jan)
middotFX weekly FX weekly Treasury vs Fed (06 Jan)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
middotFX weekly Top 4 FXMM trades for Q1-2019 (01 Jan)
middotFX weekly On liquidity witches and warlocks (23 Dec)
middotFX weekly Qui Navance pas recule (16 Dec)
middotFX weekly Burnin down the house (9 Dec)
middotFX weekly In Gut we Trust (2 Dec)
middotFX weekly Pikachu aint no hobbit (25 Nov)
middotFX weekly Powell pondering pausing (18 Nov)
middotFX weekly Another SOMA-test of 113 (11 Nov)
middotFX weekly 113 will hold unless the Republicans keep both chambers (04 Nov)
middotFX weekly HIA SOMA and REBA-days (28 Oct)
middotFX weekly The debt ceiling is a USD ceiling (21 Oct)
middotFX weekly Volatility makes odd bedfellows (14 Oct)
middotFX weekly No Di-Maionnaise for your EURs (yet) (7 Oct)
middotFX weekly Along came year-end (30 Sep)
middotFX weekly Twin deficit scare 2 (23 Sep)
middotFX weekly The Pope of Nope has spoken (16 Sep)
middotFX weekly Who wants to impeach a +60 ISM president (09 Sep)
middotFX weekly It is time to go long Scandis again (02 Sep)
middotFX weekly The Conte-Trump alliance (26 Aug)
middotFX weekly Fat-burning shorts (19 Aug)
middotFX weekly Time to call in Steven Seagal(12 Aug)
middotFX weekly Is the cyclical momentum over-priced (05 Aug)
middotFX weekly How to trade a cease-fire (29 Jul)
middotFX weekly Whats that curve (22 Jul)
middotFX weekly The China Factor (15 Jul)
middotFX weekly Take a short trade war breather (08 Jul)
middotFX weekly Trump will never 238 (01 Jul)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
middotFX weekly The USD is the best carry currency in the world (24 Jun)
middotFX weekly Dollar to provide headwinds for earning estimates (17 Jun)
middotFX weekly Fire and fury risks for the USD (10 Jun)
middotFX weekly Its not only Italy (03 Jun)
middotFX weekly The Sumo SOMA days (27 May)
middotFX weekly EM wont be sprinting if the Fed is unprinting (20 May)
middotFX weekly The two final nails in the dovish FOMC-con (13 May)
middotFX weekly Is there anything left in the USD bull-run (06 May)
middotFX weekly Dragon Energy (29 Apr)
middotFX weekly Relative curvature is the new king of FX (22 Apr)
middotFX weekly Why is EURUSD not trading lower (15 Apr)
middotFX weekly Like watching paint dry they said (08 Apr)
middotFX weekly The list of potential USD-positives is getting longer (01 Apr)
middotFX weekly 2 reasons why EURUSD has decoupled from rates spreads (25 Mar)
middotFX weekly Time to buy a USD lottery ticket (18 Mar)
middotFX weekly Taxation mirror on the wall who is the fairest of them all (11 Mar)
middotFX weekly Trumps game of chicken (04 Mar)
middotFX weekly Will the market neglect the clutch of canaries (25 Feb)
middotFX weekly Is the correlation break-down driven by FX hedges (18 Feb)
middotFX weekly The liquidity tide is ebbing (11 Feb)
middotFX weekly Hawkish spectacles (04 Feb)
middotFX weekly Who will stop EURUSD from moving higher (28 Jan)
middotFX weekly Did the Democrats dent the Dollar (21 Jan)
middotFX weekly Is 125 the new 120 (14 Jan)
middotFX weekly The euphoria rises (07 Jan)
middotFX weekly Paging Dr Pangloss (01 Jan)
middotFX weekly The R-star of Bethlehem (24 Dec)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
middotFX weekly A numbers game (17 Dec)
middotFX weekly The year-end liquidty shrink (10 Dec)
middotFX weekly Three reasons why EURUSD isnt trading lower (03 Dec)
middotFX weekly Which currencies to sell if the housing downturn continues (26 Nov)
middotFX weekly The global industrial cycle is set to weaken (19 Nov)
middotFX weekly Is high-yield a canary in the global coal mine (12 Nov)
middotFX weekly Is this the end of the inflation convergence trade in EURUSD (5 Nov)
middotFX weekly Was that it for the EUR bulls (29 Oct)
middotFX weekly Hawks in opposition doves in charge (22 Oct)
middot FX weeklyContinued convergence or re-divergence(15 Oct)
middotFX weekly Thingsdont matter until they do(08 Oct)
middotFX weekly October seasonality is strong (01 Oct)
middotFX weekly ldquoIs 120 the new 115rdquo(24 Sep)
middot FX weekly Honey I shrunk the balance sheet(17 Sep)
middot FX weekly ldquoUSD liquidity will turn scarcer but whenrdquo (10 Sep)
middot FX weekly ldquoStrong currencies and inflationrdquo(3 Sep)
middot FX weekly ldquoUSD in the (Jackson) holerdquo (27 Aug)
middot FX weekly ldquoQ4 is the USD quarterrdquo(20 Aug)
middot FX weekly ldquoIn the year 2525rdquo(13 Aug)
middot FX weekly ldquoEURUSD ceiling or debt ceilingrdquo(6 Aug)
middot FX weeklyldquoElevator up stairs down ldquo(30 Jul)
middot FX weeklyTrump ldquospicesrdquo up EURUSD(23 Jul)
middot FX weeklyFlip-flop(16 Jul)
middot FX weeklyConsolidation time(9 Jul)
middot FX weeklyHawks R Us(2 Jul)
middot FX weeklyAnother lowflation week(25 Jun)
middot FX weeklyNo Fed put(18 Jun)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
middot FX weeklyA bouncy dollar(11 Jun)
middot FX weeklyHeating up(4 Jun)
middot FX weeklySummertime sadness(28 May)
middot FX weeklySpecial counsel lessens Trumpbulence while OPEC looms(21 May)
middot FX weeklyAre China worries old hat(14 May)
middot FX weeklyInflation weekhellip(7 May)
Andreas Steno LarsenChief Global FXFI Strategistandreasstenolarsennordeacom+45 55 46 72 29
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
Chart 2 The USD liquidity is ready for use We are just waiting for the US Congress to allowit
In the meanwhile the USD could probably remain bid over the coming month or two as the USD liquidityimpulse remains tight due to the prefunding of the fiscal deal When the US Treasury hoards cash at theTreasury General Account at a faster pace than Jay Powell monetizes the debt the USD usually performsdecently well This leaves two dierent conclusions on two dierent horizons for the USD First a tad strongerbefore clearly weaker
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
Chart 3 The USD liquidity impulse speaks in favour of stronger USD short-term but notmedium-term
The AIT-regime from the Federal Reserve is the focal point for the USD weakening narrative The USTreasuryrsquos only constraint is basically the 2 inflation target As long as inflation doesnrsquot average above 2the Fed will keep printing and keep monetizing the truckload of debt This also means that we still havecascades of money printing and fiscal stimulus ahead even if 20 of all outstanding USDs have already beencreated in 2020 alone Fed members have slowly but surely started to roll out their ldquoaye-ayerdquo rhetoric onincreased QE as soon as a fiscal deal is in place Markets should accordingly prepare for a reflationaryscenario during 2021
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
Chart 4 Will the explosion in M2 lead PCE prices higher over time M2 has left the belowchart for outer space
Loretta Mester from the FOMC reiterated that the Fed is debating whether to Twist its asset holdingstowards longer maturities in the AIT-regime If expectations continue to build on a reflationary environmentit may prove dicult to contain the curve steepening pressure unless new measures are introduced Thebig dierence from historical Twist operations to the potential upcoming one is that Twist operations weretypically undertaken without massive net asset purchases
This time the Fed will continue buying a lot during a potential Operation Twist This is a major dierencein terms of how to view it from a market perspective When the Fed Twisted in 20112012 it led to a flattercurve alongside weaker growth expectations In 2021 it may lead to the opposite if we assume that theFed will increase its purchases meanwhile
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
Chart 5 The USD yield curve slope (10yr-2yr) during times of QE and Twisting
A Twist operation (towards longer maturities) will obviously in itself flatten the curve but the Fed has usuallyended up steepening the curve during QE programs due to the positive side eects of the added USDliquidity The simple modus operandi is the following Bond purchases -gt more USD liquidity -gt better EMperformance -gt repricing of global growth -gt steeper curves
The curve outcome also depends on how aggressively the Fed intends to increase the WAM of the SOMA-portfolio In 2011-2012 the Fed increased the maturity from 6yrs to roughly 10yrs during the Twist operationWe doubt that the Fed would be willing to increase the WAM above 10yrs which makes the scope for a Twistoperation less material this time around due to the starting point just below 75yrs
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
Chart 6 The weighted average maturity of the Fed bond holdings during times of QE andTwisting
Our initial conclusion from the AIT-regime was that Emerging Markets would be on the receiving endof flows due to the subsequent very benign USD liquidity outlook It has already partly been the case basedon our EM capital flow proxy indicator Inflows to EM range around 05 standard-deviations above historicalaverages which could be seen as a sign that investors have already started to bet on EM as a consequence ofthe AIT-regime It does not mean that positioning is super long in EM but it is definitely not short either ndash atleast not outside of Brazil
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
Chart 7 EM has already seen a fair share of inflows over the past 2-3 months
Those who believe that the ldquocarry-environmentrdquo will continue to remain benign should probably look towardsINR CNH and maybe ZAR as attractive carry-to-vol bets even if the Chinese authorities may try to dampenthe momentum in CNH longs
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
Chart 8 Carry-to-vol heatmap in selected USD vs EM pairs
The Chinese authorities decided to reduce the cost of shorting Yuan by lowering FX forward reserveratios from 20 to 0 which eectively works to cheapen short positions in Yuan vs foreign FX Theopposite move was implemented roughly two years back when USDCNY traded towards 700 but at leastinitially had fairly limited impact We also doubt that this move is enough to turn the tide on the current soliddownwards momentum in USDCNH due to the attractive carry to vol in USDCNH shorts Cuts from thePBoC or higher USD rates are needed to really turn the tide
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
Chart 9 USDCNY vs deposit reserve ratios in China
The USD will likely remain cheap in ratesbasis terms in to year-end as the potential wave of USDliquidity from the US Treasury General Account paired with USD lending in FX swaps from banks stuckwith capital otherwise ldquoreservedrdquo for stock buy backs will keep USD funding markets afloat Our fair-valueindicator supports the notion that EUBSC (3m FX basis EUR vs USD) should trade towards 0 or even slightlyabove in the final stage of the year which hints that the year-turn could still be priced too expensively in USD(gt2 annualized) If the USD cheapens into year-end it will also come with repercussions for Scandi markets
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
Chart 10 3M EUR vs USD fx basis fair value model based on USD liquidity (assuming anadded 800bn from the US Treasury)
Scandi markets Year-end trades to make Buy SEK pay front-end SEK rates
Anders Tegnells fanbase is increasing worldwide the USD is cheapening over year-turn there is a limitedshort-term scope for a dovish repricing of the Riksbank while we could see a potential risk rally after theUS election The list of positive SEK arguments is growing STIBOR 3m has been compressed during thefirst week of October due to the year-turn pricing and the reverse relationship to the price of USDs (moreexpensive USDs lower Stibor) The SEK could be a winner into the latter part of the year also if STIBOR startsto rebound alongside a cheapening of the USD year-turn The 3M fixing bottomed out 20th of November in2017 19th of October in 2018 and 11th of October in 2019 and the Dec contract is still pricing below thecurrent fixing for this year It might be time to pay and go long SEK
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
Chart 11 Our proxy StiborOIS model hints at upside potential into year-end
The NOK is more of a dark horse into year-end since we are approaching the worst season of the year forthe Norwegian currency The Q4 negativity will probably not be front-runned to the same extent as we sawin 2019 when everyone and their mother went long EURNOK into October due to the poor seasonal NOKperformance The NOK ultimately ended up performing in December which may have put an end to this non-fundamental Q4 weakening story We basically see no fundamental reason behind the year-end slump inNOK outside of Norges Bank halting its FX purchases during the second half of December The NOK is hencemore of wildcard than SEK but it still looks fundamentally cheap
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
Chart 12 NOK usually struggles during Q4 but last years December performance may haveturned the tide
Our running track-record is always attached here
Previous FX weeklies
FX weekly Corona Trump (02 Oct)
FX weekly Grin and Barrett (27 Sep)
FX weekly AIT is maybe not as dovish as we thought (20 Sep)
FX weekly AIT means easier financial conditions (13 Sep)
FX weekly Good luck Powell (23 Aug)
middotFX weekly USD to be put in the Jackson Hole (16 Aug)
middotFX weekly Peoples QE (09 Aug)
middotFX weekly USD will remain the No1 reserve currency (02 Aug)
middotFX weekly Kanye vs Trump vs Biden (05 Jul)
middotFX weekly Europe vs US 1-0 (28 Jun)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
middotFX weekly Should we fear a second lock-down (21 Jun)
middotFX weekly USD liquidity is not going to be as ample (14 Jun)
middotFX weekly EURphoria and panic-YCC (07 Jun)
middotFX weekly An EU solution to a EUR problem (31 May)
middotFX weekly Time to buy a EUR lottery ticket (24 May)
middotFX weekly The trade deal was always born to die (17 May)
middotFX weekly How to trade NIRP coming to America (10 May)
middotFX weekly The rise of the Virolocracy (03 May)
middotFX weekly The EUR-tyranny of the minority (27 Apr)
middotFX weekly How to glue together the EUR-ship again (20 Apr)
middotFX weekly The flipside of Oprahnomics(13 Apr)
middotFX weekly USD needs to weaken or else Plaza Accord 20 is likely (06 Apr)
middotFX weekly Spraying the world with money instead of with disinfectant (29 Mar)
middotFX weekly There will be a crisis and new instruments will be created (22 Mar)
middotFX weekly Sweden and UK are the odd ones out (15 Mar)
middotFX weekly A big bucket of bummerballs (08 Mar)
middotFX weekly A preppers guide to trading Corona (01 Mar)
middotFX weekly Get ready for YCC (23 Feb)
middotFX weekly Mini Mike and the Mechanics (16 Feb)
middotFX weekly Feds balance sheet may need to grow more (09 Feb)
middotFX weekly Did the Virus originate in Norway (02 Feb)
middotFX weekly Mnuchin to trick Fed into more POMO (26 Jan)
middotFX weekly A green bubble to save the world (19 Jan)
middotFX weekly Bad news for NIRP-haters (12 Jan)
middotFX weekly Coupon-bearing securities smell of QE4 (05 Jan)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
middotFX weekly The Riksbank is not a leading indicator of the ECB (22 Dec)
middotFX weekly Merry Christmas from the POTUS (15 Dec)
middotFX weekly Why this is not 20152016 all over again (08 Dec)
middotFX weekly Waiting for Godot (01 Dec)
middotFX weekly Get ready for Climate QE 2 (24 Nov)
middotFX weekly FX space yet to corroborate the reflationistas (17 Nov)
middotFX weekly Dont extrapolate the 60 Bs (10 Nov)
middotFX weekly 99 problems but the NOK aint one (3 Nov)
middotFX weekly Something big just happened (27 Oct)
middotFX weekly The QE train to nowhere (20 Oct)
middotFX weekly The 50 Brsquos caused the downturn so what about the 60 Brsquos (13 Oct)
middotFX weekly Is everything falling apart (6 Oct)
middotFX weekly A new path for USD liquidity (29 Sep)
middotFX weekly Soft QE in October (22 Sep)
middotFX weekly Welcome to the birthday party (15 Sep)
middotFX weekly An early santa rally (08 Sep)
middotFX weekly Can you smell the Sushi yet (01 Sep)
middotFX weekly Mo taris mo cuts but whorsquos Sho Nu (25 Aug)
middotFX weekly First havens then sell confetti (18 Aug)
middotFX weekly The liquidity doom loop (11 Aug)
middotFX weekly Buy Treasuries Short Scandis Wear Diamonds (04 Aug)
middotFX weekly Lagarde better practice her Rhine dancing (28 Jul)
middotFX weekly Go big or go home (21 Jul)
middotFX weekly The liquidity plot thickens (14 Jul)
middotFX weekly e-scooters are silly (07Jul)
middotFX weekly One is exausted the other is nuts(30 Jun)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
middotFX weekly Time to bring in Steven Seagal 2 (23 Jun)
middotFX weekly Get ready for climate QE (16 Jun)
middotFX weekly Cut cut cut cut (09 Jun)
middotFX weekly The absolute madman (02 Jun)
middotFX weekly Will Xi be Nikithared (26 May)
middotFX weekly Trade war ping pong (19 May)
middotFX weekly A stairway to heaven for Krona shorts (12 May)
middotFX weekly Mnuchin to bail-out Fed (05 May)
middotFX weekly 3 reasons why the USD has been resurgent (28 Apr)
middotFX weekly No doomsday (yet) (21 Apr)
middotFX weekly In EUR we trust (14 Apr)
middotFX weekly Crouching Tiger Hidden Inflation Dragon (07 Apr)
middotFX weekly There is a smell of 2016 in the air (31 Mar)
middotFX weekly Dear Mr Powell (24 Mar)
middotFX weekly The devils advocate (17 Mar)
middotFX weekly Mario Bla-blaghi (10 Mar)
middotFX weekly Chinese reflation (3 Mar)
middotFX weekly QT cannot run forever (24 Feb)
middotFX weekly The USD is now in Trumps hands (17 Feb)
middotFX weekly Time to care about Euro area politics again (10 Feb)
middotFX weekly Is Powell turning into a MAGA-man (03 Feb)
middotFX weekly On climate angst and fake news (27 Jan)
middotFX weekly The Mnuchin bailout (20 Jan)
middotFX weekly FX weekly Cause Im a flip-flopper yes I am (13 Jan)
middotFX weekly FX weekly Treasury vs Fed (06 Jan)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
middotFX weekly Top 4 FXMM trades for Q1-2019 (01 Jan)
middotFX weekly On liquidity witches and warlocks (23 Dec)
middotFX weekly Qui Navance pas recule (16 Dec)
middotFX weekly Burnin down the house (9 Dec)
middotFX weekly In Gut we Trust (2 Dec)
middotFX weekly Pikachu aint no hobbit (25 Nov)
middotFX weekly Powell pondering pausing (18 Nov)
middotFX weekly Another SOMA-test of 113 (11 Nov)
middotFX weekly 113 will hold unless the Republicans keep both chambers (04 Nov)
middotFX weekly HIA SOMA and REBA-days (28 Oct)
middotFX weekly The debt ceiling is a USD ceiling (21 Oct)
middotFX weekly Volatility makes odd bedfellows (14 Oct)
middotFX weekly No Di-Maionnaise for your EURs (yet) (7 Oct)
middotFX weekly Along came year-end (30 Sep)
middotFX weekly Twin deficit scare 2 (23 Sep)
middotFX weekly The Pope of Nope has spoken (16 Sep)
middotFX weekly Who wants to impeach a +60 ISM president (09 Sep)
middotFX weekly It is time to go long Scandis again (02 Sep)
middotFX weekly The Conte-Trump alliance (26 Aug)
middotFX weekly Fat-burning shorts (19 Aug)
middotFX weekly Time to call in Steven Seagal(12 Aug)
middotFX weekly Is the cyclical momentum over-priced (05 Aug)
middotFX weekly How to trade a cease-fire (29 Jul)
middotFX weekly Whats that curve (22 Jul)
middotFX weekly The China Factor (15 Jul)
middotFX weekly Take a short trade war breather (08 Jul)
middotFX weekly Trump will never 238 (01 Jul)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
middotFX weekly The USD is the best carry currency in the world (24 Jun)
middotFX weekly Dollar to provide headwinds for earning estimates (17 Jun)
middotFX weekly Fire and fury risks for the USD (10 Jun)
middotFX weekly Its not only Italy (03 Jun)
middotFX weekly The Sumo SOMA days (27 May)
middotFX weekly EM wont be sprinting if the Fed is unprinting (20 May)
middotFX weekly The two final nails in the dovish FOMC-con (13 May)
middotFX weekly Is there anything left in the USD bull-run (06 May)
middotFX weekly Dragon Energy (29 Apr)
middotFX weekly Relative curvature is the new king of FX (22 Apr)
middotFX weekly Why is EURUSD not trading lower (15 Apr)
middotFX weekly Like watching paint dry they said (08 Apr)
middotFX weekly The list of potential USD-positives is getting longer (01 Apr)
middotFX weekly 2 reasons why EURUSD has decoupled from rates spreads (25 Mar)
middotFX weekly Time to buy a USD lottery ticket (18 Mar)
middotFX weekly Taxation mirror on the wall who is the fairest of them all (11 Mar)
middotFX weekly Trumps game of chicken (04 Mar)
middotFX weekly Will the market neglect the clutch of canaries (25 Feb)
middotFX weekly Is the correlation break-down driven by FX hedges (18 Feb)
middotFX weekly The liquidity tide is ebbing (11 Feb)
middotFX weekly Hawkish spectacles (04 Feb)
middotFX weekly Who will stop EURUSD from moving higher (28 Jan)
middotFX weekly Did the Democrats dent the Dollar (21 Jan)
middotFX weekly Is 125 the new 120 (14 Jan)
middotFX weekly The euphoria rises (07 Jan)
middotFX weekly Paging Dr Pangloss (01 Jan)
middotFX weekly The R-star of Bethlehem (24 Dec)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
middotFX weekly A numbers game (17 Dec)
middotFX weekly The year-end liquidty shrink (10 Dec)
middotFX weekly Three reasons why EURUSD isnt trading lower (03 Dec)
middotFX weekly Which currencies to sell if the housing downturn continues (26 Nov)
middotFX weekly The global industrial cycle is set to weaken (19 Nov)
middotFX weekly Is high-yield a canary in the global coal mine (12 Nov)
middotFX weekly Is this the end of the inflation convergence trade in EURUSD (5 Nov)
middotFX weekly Was that it for the EUR bulls (29 Oct)
middotFX weekly Hawks in opposition doves in charge (22 Oct)
middot FX weeklyContinued convergence or re-divergence(15 Oct)
middotFX weekly Thingsdont matter until they do(08 Oct)
middotFX weekly October seasonality is strong (01 Oct)
middotFX weekly ldquoIs 120 the new 115rdquo(24 Sep)
middot FX weekly Honey I shrunk the balance sheet(17 Sep)
middot FX weekly ldquoUSD liquidity will turn scarcer but whenrdquo (10 Sep)
middot FX weekly ldquoStrong currencies and inflationrdquo(3 Sep)
middot FX weekly ldquoUSD in the (Jackson) holerdquo (27 Aug)
middot FX weekly ldquoQ4 is the USD quarterrdquo(20 Aug)
middot FX weekly ldquoIn the year 2525rdquo(13 Aug)
middot FX weekly ldquoEURUSD ceiling or debt ceilingrdquo(6 Aug)
middot FX weeklyldquoElevator up stairs down ldquo(30 Jul)
middot FX weeklyTrump ldquospicesrdquo up EURUSD(23 Jul)
middot FX weeklyFlip-flop(16 Jul)
middot FX weeklyConsolidation time(9 Jul)
middot FX weeklyHawks R Us(2 Jul)
middot FX weeklyAnother lowflation week(25 Jun)
middot FX weeklyNo Fed put(18 Jun)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
middot FX weeklyA bouncy dollar(11 Jun)
middot FX weeklyHeating up(4 Jun)
middot FX weeklySummertime sadness(28 May)
middot FX weeklySpecial counsel lessens Trumpbulence while OPEC looms(21 May)
middot FX weeklyAre China worries old hat(14 May)
middot FX weeklyInflation weekhellip(7 May)
Andreas Steno LarsenChief Global FXFI Strategistandreasstenolarsennordeacom+45 55 46 72 29
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
Chart 3 The USD liquidity impulse speaks in favour of stronger USD short-term but notmedium-term
The AIT-regime from the Federal Reserve is the focal point for the USD weakening narrative The USTreasuryrsquos only constraint is basically the 2 inflation target As long as inflation doesnrsquot average above 2the Fed will keep printing and keep monetizing the truckload of debt This also means that we still havecascades of money printing and fiscal stimulus ahead even if 20 of all outstanding USDs have already beencreated in 2020 alone Fed members have slowly but surely started to roll out their ldquoaye-ayerdquo rhetoric onincreased QE as soon as a fiscal deal is in place Markets should accordingly prepare for a reflationaryscenario during 2021
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
Chart 4 Will the explosion in M2 lead PCE prices higher over time M2 has left the belowchart for outer space
Loretta Mester from the FOMC reiterated that the Fed is debating whether to Twist its asset holdingstowards longer maturities in the AIT-regime If expectations continue to build on a reflationary environmentit may prove dicult to contain the curve steepening pressure unless new measures are introduced Thebig dierence from historical Twist operations to the potential upcoming one is that Twist operations weretypically undertaken without massive net asset purchases
This time the Fed will continue buying a lot during a potential Operation Twist This is a major dierencein terms of how to view it from a market perspective When the Fed Twisted in 20112012 it led to a flattercurve alongside weaker growth expectations In 2021 it may lead to the opposite if we assume that theFed will increase its purchases meanwhile
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
Chart 5 The USD yield curve slope (10yr-2yr) during times of QE and Twisting
A Twist operation (towards longer maturities) will obviously in itself flatten the curve but the Fed has usuallyended up steepening the curve during QE programs due to the positive side eects of the added USDliquidity The simple modus operandi is the following Bond purchases -gt more USD liquidity -gt better EMperformance -gt repricing of global growth -gt steeper curves
The curve outcome also depends on how aggressively the Fed intends to increase the WAM of the SOMA-portfolio In 2011-2012 the Fed increased the maturity from 6yrs to roughly 10yrs during the Twist operationWe doubt that the Fed would be willing to increase the WAM above 10yrs which makes the scope for a Twistoperation less material this time around due to the starting point just below 75yrs
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
Chart 6 The weighted average maturity of the Fed bond holdings during times of QE andTwisting
Our initial conclusion from the AIT-regime was that Emerging Markets would be on the receiving endof flows due to the subsequent very benign USD liquidity outlook It has already partly been the case basedon our EM capital flow proxy indicator Inflows to EM range around 05 standard-deviations above historicalaverages which could be seen as a sign that investors have already started to bet on EM as a consequence ofthe AIT-regime It does not mean that positioning is super long in EM but it is definitely not short either ndash atleast not outside of Brazil
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
Chart 7 EM has already seen a fair share of inflows over the past 2-3 months
Those who believe that the ldquocarry-environmentrdquo will continue to remain benign should probably look towardsINR CNH and maybe ZAR as attractive carry-to-vol bets even if the Chinese authorities may try to dampenthe momentum in CNH longs
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
Chart 8 Carry-to-vol heatmap in selected USD vs EM pairs
The Chinese authorities decided to reduce the cost of shorting Yuan by lowering FX forward reserveratios from 20 to 0 which eectively works to cheapen short positions in Yuan vs foreign FX Theopposite move was implemented roughly two years back when USDCNY traded towards 700 but at leastinitially had fairly limited impact We also doubt that this move is enough to turn the tide on the current soliddownwards momentum in USDCNH due to the attractive carry to vol in USDCNH shorts Cuts from thePBoC or higher USD rates are needed to really turn the tide
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
Chart 9 USDCNY vs deposit reserve ratios in China
The USD will likely remain cheap in ratesbasis terms in to year-end as the potential wave of USDliquidity from the US Treasury General Account paired with USD lending in FX swaps from banks stuckwith capital otherwise ldquoreservedrdquo for stock buy backs will keep USD funding markets afloat Our fair-valueindicator supports the notion that EUBSC (3m FX basis EUR vs USD) should trade towards 0 or even slightlyabove in the final stage of the year which hints that the year-turn could still be priced too expensively in USD(gt2 annualized) If the USD cheapens into year-end it will also come with repercussions for Scandi markets
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
Chart 10 3M EUR vs USD fx basis fair value model based on USD liquidity (assuming anadded 800bn from the US Treasury)
Scandi markets Year-end trades to make Buy SEK pay front-end SEK rates
Anders Tegnells fanbase is increasing worldwide the USD is cheapening over year-turn there is a limitedshort-term scope for a dovish repricing of the Riksbank while we could see a potential risk rally after theUS election The list of positive SEK arguments is growing STIBOR 3m has been compressed during thefirst week of October due to the year-turn pricing and the reverse relationship to the price of USDs (moreexpensive USDs lower Stibor) The SEK could be a winner into the latter part of the year also if STIBOR startsto rebound alongside a cheapening of the USD year-turn The 3M fixing bottomed out 20th of November in2017 19th of October in 2018 and 11th of October in 2019 and the Dec contract is still pricing below thecurrent fixing for this year It might be time to pay and go long SEK
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
Chart 11 Our proxy StiborOIS model hints at upside potential into year-end
The NOK is more of a dark horse into year-end since we are approaching the worst season of the year forthe Norwegian currency The Q4 negativity will probably not be front-runned to the same extent as we sawin 2019 when everyone and their mother went long EURNOK into October due to the poor seasonal NOKperformance The NOK ultimately ended up performing in December which may have put an end to this non-fundamental Q4 weakening story We basically see no fundamental reason behind the year-end slump inNOK outside of Norges Bank halting its FX purchases during the second half of December The NOK is hencemore of wildcard than SEK but it still looks fundamentally cheap
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
Chart 12 NOK usually struggles during Q4 but last years December performance may haveturned the tide
Our running track-record is always attached here
Previous FX weeklies
FX weekly Corona Trump (02 Oct)
FX weekly Grin and Barrett (27 Sep)
FX weekly AIT is maybe not as dovish as we thought (20 Sep)
FX weekly AIT means easier financial conditions (13 Sep)
FX weekly Good luck Powell (23 Aug)
middotFX weekly USD to be put in the Jackson Hole (16 Aug)
middotFX weekly Peoples QE (09 Aug)
middotFX weekly USD will remain the No1 reserve currency (02 Aug)
middotFX weekly Kanye vs Trump vs Biden (05 Jul)
middotFX weekly Europe vs US 1-0 (28 Jun)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
middotFX weekly Should we fear a second lock-down (21 Jun)
middotFX weekly USD liquidity is not going to be as ample (14 Jun)
middotFX weekly EURphoria and panic-YCC (07 Jun)
middotFX weekly An EU solution to a EUR problem (31 May)
middotFX weekly Time to buy a EUR lottery ticket (24 May)
middotFX weekly The trade deal was always born to die (17 May)
middotFX weekly How to trade NIRP coming to America (10 May)
middotFX weekly The rise of the Virolocracy (03 May)
middotFX weekly The EUR-tyranny of the minority (27 Apr)
middotFX weekly How to glue together the EUR-ship again (20 Apr)
middotFX weekly The flipside of Oprahnomics(13 Apr)
middotFX weekly USD needs to weaken or else Plaza Accord 20 is likely (06 Apr)
middotFX weekly Spraying the world with money instead of with disinfectant (29 Mar)
middotFX weekly There will be a crisis and new instruments will be created (22 Mar)
middotFX weekly Sweden and UK are the odd ones out (15 Mar)
middotFX weekly A big bucket of bummerballs (08 Mar)
middotFX weekly A preppers guide to trading Corona (01 Mar)
middotFX weekly Get ready for YCC (23 Feb)
middotFX weekly Mini Mike and the Mechanics (16 Feb)
middotFX weekly Feds balance sheet may need to grow more (09 Feb)
middotFX weekly Did the Virus originate in Norway (02 Feb)
middotFX weekly Mnuchin to trick Fed into more POMO (26 Jan)
middotFX weekly A green bubble to save the world (19 Jan)
middotFX weekly Bad news for NIRP-haters (12 Jan)
middotFX weekly Coupon-bearing securities smell of QE4 (05 Jan)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
middotFX weekly The Riksbank is not a leading indicator of the ECB (22 Dec)
middotFX weekly Merry Christmas from the POTUS (15 Dec)
middotFX weekly Why this is not 20152016 all over again (08 Dec)
middotFX weekly Waiting for Godot (01 Dec)
middotFX weekly Get ready for Climate QE 2 (24 Nov)
middotFX weekly FX space yet to corroborate the reflationistas (17 Nov)
middotFX weekly Dont extrapolate the 60 Bs (10 Nov)
middotFX weekly 99 problems but the NOK aint one (3 Nov)
middotFX weekly Something big just happened (27 Oct)
middotFX weekly The QE train to nowhere (20 Oct)
middotFX weekly The 50 Brsquos caused the downturn so what about the 60 Brsquos (13 Oct)
middotFX weekly Is everything falling apart (6 Oct)
middotFX weekly A new path for USD liquidity (29 Sep)
middotFX weekly Soft QE in October (22 Sep)
middotFX weekly Welcome to the birthday party (15 Sep)
middotFX weekly An early santa rally (08 Sep)
middotFX weekly Can you smell the Sushi yet (01 Sep)
middotFX weekly Mo taris mo cuts but whorsquos Sho Nu (25 Aug)
middotFX weekly First havens then sell confetti (18 Aug)
middotFX weekly The liquidity doom loop (11 Aug)
middotFX weekly Buy Treasuries Short Scandis Wear Diamonds (04 Aug)
middotFX weekly Lagarde better practice her Rhine dancing (28 Jul)
middotFX weekly Go big or go home (21 Jul)
middotFX weekly The liquidity plot thickens (14 Jul)
middotFX weekly e-scooters are silly (07Jul)
middotFX weekly One is exausted the other is nuts(30 Jun)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
middotFX weekly Time to bring in Steven Seagal 2 (23 Jun)
middotFX weekly Get ready for climate QE (16 Jun)
middotFX weekly Cut cut cut cut (09 Jun)
middotFX weekly The absolute madman (02 Jun)
middotFX weekly Will Xi be Nikithared (26 May)
middotFX weekly Trade war ping pong (19 May)
middotFX weekly A stairway to heaven for Krona shorts (12 May)
middotFX weekly Mnuchin to bail-out Fed (05 May)
middotFX weekly 3 reasons why the USD has been resurgent (28 Apr)
middotFX weekly No doomsday (yet) (21 Apr)
middotFX weekly In EUR we trust (14 Apr)
middotFX weekly Crouching Tiger Hidden Inflation Dragon (07 Apr)
middotFX weekly There is a smell of 2016 in the air (31 Mar)
middotFX weekly Dear Mr Powell (24 Mar)
middotFX weekly The devils advocate (17 Mar)
middotFX weekly Mario Bla-blaghi (10 Mar)
middotFX weekly Chinese reflation (3 Mar)
middotFX weekly QT cannot run forever (24 Feb)
middotFX weekly The USD is now in Trumps hands (17 Feb)
middotFX weekly Time to care about Euro area politics again (10 Feb)
middotFX weekly Is Powell turning into a MAGA-man (03 Feb)
middotFX weekly On climate angst and fake news (27 Jan)
middotFX weekly The Mnuchin bailout (20 Jan)
middotFX weekly FX weekly Cause Im a flip-flopper yes I am (13 Jan)
middotFX weekly FX weekly Treasury vs Fed (06 Jan)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
middotFX weekly Top 4 FXMM trades for Q1-2019 (01 Jan)
middotFX weekly On liquidity witches and warlocks (23 Dec)
middotFX weekly Qui Navance pas recule (16 Dec)
middotFX weekly Burnin down the house (9 Dec)
middotFX weekly In Gut we Trust (2 Dec)
middotFX weekly Pikachu aint no hobbit (25 Nov)
middotFX weekly Powell pondering pausing (18 Nov)
middotFX weekly Another SOMA-test of 113 (11 Nov)
middotFX weekly 113 will hold unless the Republicans keep both chambers (04 Nov)
middotFX weekly HIA SOMA and REBA-days (28 Oct)
middotFX weekly The debt ceiling is a USD ceiling (21 Oct)
middotFX weekly Volatility makes odd bedfellows (14 Oct)
middotFX weekly No Di-Maionnaise for your EURs (yet) (7 Oct)
middotFX weekly Along came year-end (30 Sep)
middotFX weekly Twin deficit scare 2 (23 Sep)
middotFX weekly The Pope of Nope has spoken (16 Sep)
middotFX weekly Who wants to impeach a +60 ISM president (09 Sep)
middotFX weekly It is time to go long Scandis again (02 Sep)
middotFX weekly The Conte-Trump alliance (26 Aug)
middotFX weekly Fat-burning shorts (19 Aug)
middotFX weekly Time to call in Steven Seagal(12 Aug)
middotFX weekly Is the cyclical momentum over-priced (05 Aug)
middotFX weekly How to trade a cease-fire (29 Jul)
middotFX weekly Whats that curve (22 Jul)
middotFX weekly The China Factor (15 Jul)
middotFX weekly Take a short trade war breather (08 Jul)
middotFX weekly Trump will never 238 (01 Jul)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
middotFX weekly The USD is the best carry currency in the world (24 Jun)
middotFX weekly Dollar to provide headwinds for earning estimates (17 Jun)
middotFX weekly Fire and fury risks for the USD (10 Jun)
middotFX weekly Its not only Italy (03 Jun)
middotFX weekly The Sumo SOMA days (27 May)
middotFX weekly EM wont be sprinting if the Fed is unprinting (20 May)
middotFX weekly The two final nails in the dovish FOMC-con (13 May)
middotFX weekly Is there anything left in the USD bull-run (06 May)
middotFX weekly Dragon Energy (29 Apr)
middotFX weekly Relative curvature is the new king of FX (22 Apr)
middotFX weekly Why is EURUSD not trading lower (15 Apr)
middotFX weekly Like watching paint dry they said (08 Apr)
middotFX weekly The list of potential USD-positives is getting longer (01 Apr)
middotFX weekly 2 reasons why EURUSD has decoupled from rates spreads (25 Mar)
middotFX weekly Time to buy a USD lottery ticket (18 Mar)
middotFX weekly Taxation mirror on the wall who is the fairest of them all (11 Mar)
middotFX weekly Trumps game of chicken (04 Mar)
middotFX weekly Will the market neglect the clutch of canaries (25 Feb)
middotFX weekly Is the correlation break-down driven by FX hedges (18 Feb)
middotFX weekly The liquidity tide is ebbing (11 Feb)
middotFX weekly Hawkish spectacles (04 Feb)
middotFX weekly Who will stop EURUSD from moving higher (28 Jan)
middotFX weekly Did the Democrats dent the Dollar (21 Jan)
middotFX weekly Is 125 the new 120 (14 Jan)
middotFX weekly The euphoria rises (07 Jan)
middotFX weekly Paging Dr Pangloss (01 Jan)
middotFX weekly The R-star of Bethlehem (24 Dec)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
middotFX weekly A numbers game (17 Dec)
middotFX weekly The year-end liquidty shrink (10 Dec)
middotFX weekly Three reasons why EURUSD isnt trading lower (03 Dec)
middotFX weekly Which currencies to sell if the housing downturn continues (26 Nov)
middotFX weekly The global industrial cycle is set to weaken (19 Nov)
middotFX weekly Is high-yield a canary in the global coal mine (12 Nov)
middotFX weekly Is this the end of the inflation convergence trade in EURUSD (5 Nov)
middotFX weekly Was that it for the EUR bulls (29 Oct)
middotFX weekly Hawks in opposition doves in charge (22 Oct)
middot FX weeklyContinued convergence or re-divergence(15 Oct)
middotFX weekly Thingsdont matter until they do(08 Oct)
middotFX weekly October seasonality is strong (01 Oct)
middotFX weekly ldquoIs 120 the new 115rdquo(24 Sep)
middot FX weekly Honey I shrunk the balance sheet(17 Sep)
middot FX weekly ldquoUSD liquidity will turn scarcer but whenrdquo (10 Sep)
middot FX weekly ldquoStrong currencies and inflationrdquo(3 Sep)
middot FX weekly ldquoUSD in the (Jackson) holerdquo (27 Aug)
middot FX weekly ldquoQ4 is the USD quarterrdquo(20 Aug)
middot FX weekly ldquoIn the year 2525rdquo(13 Aug)
middot FX weekly ldquoEURUSD ceiling or debt ceilingrdquo(6 Aug)
middot FX weeklyldquoElevator up stairs down ldquo(30 Jul)
middot FX weeklyTrump ldquospicesrdquo up EURUSD(23 Jul)
middot FX weeklyFlip-flop(16 Jul)
middot FX weeklyConsolidation time(9 Jul)
middot FX weeklyHawks R Us(2 Jul)
middot FX weeklyAnother lowflation week(25 Jun)
middot FX weeklyNo Fed put(18 Jun)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
middot FX weeklyA bouncy dollar(11 Jun)
middot FX weeklyHeating up(4 Jun)
middot FX weeklySummertime sadness(28 May)
middot FX weeklySpecial counsel lessens Trumpbulence while OPEC looms(21 May)
middot FX weeklyAre China worries old hat(14 May)
middot FX weeklyInflation weekhellip(7 May)
Andreas Steno LarsenChief Global FXFI Strategistandreasstenolarsennordeacom+45 55 46 72 29
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
Chart 4 Will the explosion in M2 lead PCE prices higher over time M2 has left the belowchart for outer space
Loretta Mester from the FOMC reiterated that the Fed is debating whether to Twist its asset holdingstowards longer maturities in the AIT-regime If expectations continue to build on a reflationary environmentit may prove dicult to contain the curve steepening pressure unless new measures are introduced Thebig dierence from historical Twist operations to the potential upcoming one is that Twist operations weretypically undertaken without massive net asset purchases
This time the Fed will continue buying a lot during a potential Operation Twist This is a major dierencein terms of how to view it from a market perspective When the Fed Twisted in 20112012 it led to a flattercurve alongside weaker growth expectations In 2021 it may lead to the opposite if we assume that theFed will increase its purchases meanwhile
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
Chart 5 The USD yield curve slope (10yr-2yr) during times of QE and Twisting
A Twist operation (towards longer maturities) will obviously in itself flatten the curve but the Fed has usuallyended up steepening the curve during QE programs due to the positive side eects of the added USDliquidity The simple modus operandi is the following Bond purchases -gt more USD liquidity -gt better EMperformance -gt repricing of global growth -gt steeper curves
The curve outcome also depends on how aggressively the Fed intends to increase the WAM of the SOMA-portfolio In 2011-2012 the Fed increased the maturity from 6yrs to roughly 10yrs during the Twist operationWe doubt that the Fed would be willing to increase the WAM above 10yrs which makes the scope for a Twistoperation less material this time around due to the starting point just below 75yrs
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
Chart 6 The weighted average maturity of the Fed bond holdings during times of QE andTwisting
Our initial conclusion from the AIT-regime was that Emerging Markets would be on the receiving endof flows due to the subsequent very benign USD liquidity outlook It has already partly been the case basedon our EM capital flow proxy indicator Inflows to EM range around 05 standard-deviations above historicalaverages which could be seen as a sign that investors have already started to bet on EM as a consequence ofthe AIT-regime It does not mean that positioning is super long in EM but it is definitely not short either ndash atleast not outside of Brazil
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
Chart 7 EM has already seen a fair share of inflows over the past 2-3 months
Those who believe that the ldquocarry-environmentrdquo will continue to remain benign should probably look towardsINR CNH and maybe ZAR as attractive carry-to-vol bets even if the Chinese authorities may try to dampenthe momentum in CNH longs
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
Chart 8 Carry-to-vol heatmap in selected USD vs EM pairs
The Chinese authorities decided to reduce the cost of shorting Yuan by lowering FX forward reserveratios from 20 to 0 which eectively works to cheapen short positions in Yuan vs foreign FX Theopposite move was implemented roughly two years back when USDCNY traded towards 700 but at leastinitially had fairly limited impact We also doubt that this move is enough to turn the tide on the current soliddownwards momentum in USDCNH due to the attractive carry to vol in USDCNH shorts Cuts from thePBoC or higher USD rates are needed to really turn the tide
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
Chart 9 USDCNY vs deposit reserve ratios in China
The USD will likely remain cheap in ratesbasis terms in to year-end as the potential wave of USDliquidity from the US Treasury General Account paired with USD lending in FX swaps from banks stuckwith capital otherwise ldquoreservedrdquo for stock buy backs will keep USD funding markets afloat Our fair-valueindicator supports the notion that EUBSC (3m FX basis EUR vs USD) should trade towards 0 or even slightlyabove in the final stage of the year which hints that the year-turn could still be priced too expensively in USD(gt2 annualized) If the USD cheapens into year-end it will also come with repercussions for Scandi markets
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
Chart 10 3M EUR vs USD fx basis fair value model based on USD liquidity (assuming anadded 800bn from the US Treasury)
Scandi markets Year-end trades to make Buy SEK pay front-end SEK rates
Anders Tegnells fanbase is increasing worldwide the USD is cheapening over year-turn there is a limitedshort-term scope for a dovish repricing of the Riksbank while we could see a potential risk rally after theUS election The list of positive SEK arguments is growing STIBOR 3m has been compressed during thefirst week of October due to the year-turn pricing and the reverse relationship to the price of USDs (moreexpensive USDs lower Stibor) The SEK could be a winner into the latter part of the year also if STIBOR startsto rebound alongside a cheapening of the USD year-turn The 3M fixing bottomed out 20th of November in2017 19th of October in 2018 and 11th of October in 2019 and the Dec contract is still pricing below thecurrent fixing for this year It might be time to pay and go long SEK
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
Chart 11 Our proxy StiborOIS model hints at upside potential into year-end
The NOK is more of a dark horse into year-end since we are approaching the worst season of the year forthe Norwegian currency The Q4 negativity will probably not be front-runned to the same extent as we sawin 2019 when everyone and their mother went long EURNOK into October due to the poor seasonal NOKperformance The NOK ultimately ended up performing in December which may have put an end to this non-fundamental Q4 weakening story We basically see no fundamental reason behind the year-end slump inNOK outside of Norges Bank halting its FX purchases during the second half of December The NOK is hencemore of wildcard than SEK but it still looks fundamentally cheap
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
Chart 12 NOK usually struggles during Q4 but last years December performance may haveturned the tide
Our running track-record is always attached here
Previous FX weeklies
FX weekly Corona Trump (02 Oct)
FX weekly Grin and Barrett (27 Sep)
FX weekly AIT is maybe not as dovish as we thought (20 Sep)
FX weekly AIT means easier financial conditions (13 Sep)
FX weekly Good luck Powell (23 Aug)
middotFX weekly USD to be put in the Jackson Hole (16 Aug)
middotFX weekly Peoples QE (09 Aug)
middotFX weekly USD will remain the No1 reserve currency (02 Aug)
middotFX weekly Kanye vs Trump vs Biden (05 Jul)
middotFX weekly Europe vs US 1-0 (28 Jun)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
middotFX weekly Should we fear a second lock-down (21 Jun)
middotFX weekly USD liquidity is not going to be as ample (14 Jun)
middotFX weekly EURphoria and panic-YCC (07 Jun)
middotFX weekly An EU solution to a EUR problem (31 May)
middotFX weekly Time to buy a EUR lottery ticket (24 May)
middotFX weekly The trade deal was always born to die (17 May)
middotFX weekly How to trade NIRP coming to America (10 May)
middotFX weekly The rise of the Virolocracy (03 May)
middotFX weekly The EUR-tyranny of the minority (27 Apr)
middotFX weekly How to glue together the EUR-ship again (20 Apr)
middotFX weekly The flipside of Oprahnomics(13 Apr)
middotFX weekly USD needs to weaken or else Plaza Accord 20 is likely (06 Apr)
middotFX weekly Spraying the world with money instead of with disinfectant (29 Mar)
middotFX weekly There will be a crisis and new instruments will be created (22 Mar)
middotFX weekly Sweden and UK are the odd ones out (15 Mar)
middotFX weekly A big bucket of bummerballs (08 Mar)
middotFX weekly A preppers guide to trading Corona (01 Mar)
middotFX weekly Get ready for YCC (23 Feb)
middotFX weekly Mini Mike and the Mechanics (16 Feb)
middotFX weekly Feds balance sheet may need to grow more (09 Feb)
middotFX weekly Did the Virus originate in Norway (02 Feb)
middotFX weekly Mnuchin to trick Fed into more POMO (26 Jan)
middotFX weekly A green bubble to save the world (19 Jan)
middotFX weekly Bad news for NIRP-haters (12 Jan)
middotFX weekly Coupon-bearing securities smell of QE4 (05 Jan)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
middotFX weekly The Riksbank is not a leading indicator of the ECB (22 Dec)
middotFX weekly Merry Christmas from the POTUS (15 Dec)
middotFX weekly Why this is not 20152016 all over again (08 Dec)
middotFX weekly Waiting for Godot (01 Dec)
middotFX weekly Get ready for Climate QE 2 (24 Nov)
middotFX weekly FX space yet to corroborate the reflationistas (17 Nov)
middotFX weekly Dont extrapolate the 60 Bs (10 Nov)
middotFX weekly 99 problems but the NOK aint one (3 Nov)
middotFX weekly Something big just happened (27 Oct)
middotFX weekly The QE train to nowhere (20 Oct)
middotFX weekly The 50 Brsquos caused the downturn so what about the 60 Brsquos (13 Oct)
middotFX weekly Is everything falling apart (6 Oct)
middotFX weekly A new path for USD liquidity (29 Sep)
middotFX weekly Soft QE in October (22 Sep)
middotFX weekly Welcome to the birthday party (15 Sep)
middotFX weekly An early santa rally (08 Sep)
middotFX weekly Can you smell the Sushi yet (01 Sep)
middotFX weekly Mo taris mo cuts but whorsquos Sho Nu (25 Aug)
middotFX weekly First havens then sell confetti (18 Aug)
middotFX weekly The liquidity doom loop (11 Aug)
middotFX weekly Buy Treasuries Short Scandis Wear Diamonds (04 Aug)
middotFX weekly Lagarde better practice her Rhine dancing (28 Jul)
middotFX weekly Go big or go home (21 Jul)
middotFX weekly The liquidity plot thickens (14 Jul)
middotFX weekly e-scooters are silly (07Jul)
middotFX weekly One is exausted the other is nuts(30 Jun)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
middotFX weekly Time to bring in Steven Seagal 2 (23 Jun)
middotFX weekly Get ready for climate QE (16 Jun)
middotFX weekly Cut cut cut cut (09 Jun)
middotFX weekly The absolute madman (02 Jun)
middotFX weekly Will Xi be Nikithared (26 May)
middotFX weekly Trade war ping pong (19 May)
middotFX weekly A stairway to heaven for Krona shorts (12 May)
middotFX weekly Mnuchin to bail-out Fed (05 May)
middotFX weekly 3 reasons why the USD has been resurgent (28 Apr)
middotFX weekly No doomsday (yet) (21 Apr)
middotFX weekly In EUR we trust (14 Apr)
middotFX weekly Crouching Tiger Hidden Inflation Dragon (07 Apr)
middotFX weekly There is a smell of 2016 in the air (31 Mar)
middotFX weekly Dear Mr Powell (24 Mar)
middotFX weekly The devils advocate (17 Mar)
middotFX weekly Mario Bla-blaghi (10 Mar)
middotFX weekly Chinese reflation (3 Mar)
middotFX weekly QT cannot run forever (24 Feb)
middotFX weekly The USD is now in Trumps hands (17 Feb)
middotFX weekly Time to care about Euro area politics again (10 Feb)
middotFX weekly Is Powell turning into a MAGA-man (03 Feb)
middotFX weekly On climate angst and fake news (27 Jan)
middotFX weekly The Mnuchin bailout (20 Jan)
middotFX weekly FX weekly Cause Im a flip-flopper yes I am (13 Jan)
middotFX weekly FX weekly Treasury vs Fed (06 Jan)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
middotFX weekly Top 4 FXMM trades for Q1-2019 (01 Jan)
middotFX weekly On liquidity witches and warlocks (23 Dec)
middotFX weekly Qui Navance pas recule (16 Dec)
middotFX weekly Burnin down the house (9 Dec)
middotFX weekly In Gut we Trust (2 Dec)
middotFX weekly Pikachu aint no hobbit (25 Nov)
middotFX weekly Powell pondering pausing (18 Nov)
middotFX weekly Another SOMA-test of 113 (11 Nov)
middotFX weekly 113 will hold unless the Republicans keep both chambers (04 Nov)
middotFX weekly HIA SOMA and REBA-days (28 Oct)
middotFX weekly The debt ceiling is a USD ceiling (21 Oct)
middotFX weekly Volatility makes odd bedfellows (14 Oct)
middotFX weekly No Di-Maionnaise for your EURs (yet) (7 Oct)
middotFX weekly Along came year-end (30 Sep)
middotFX weekly Twin deficit scare 2 (23 Sep)
middotFX weekly The Pope of Nope has spoken (16 Sep)
middotFX weekly Who wants to impeach a +60 ISM president (09 Sep)
middotFX weekly It is time to go long Scandis again (02 Sep)
middotFX weekly The Conte-Trump alliance (26 Aug)
middotFX weekly Fat-burning shorts (19 Aug)
middotFX weekly Time to call in Steven Seagal(12 Aug)
middotFX weekly Is the cyclical momentum over-priced (05 Aug)
middotFX weekly How to trade a cease-fire (29 Jul)
middotFX weekly Whats that curve (22 Jul)
middotFX weekly The China Factor (15 Jul)
middotFX weekly Take a short trade war breather (08 Jul)
middotFX weekly Trump will never 238 (01 Jul)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
middotFX weekly The USD is the best carry currency in the world (24 Jun)
middotFX weekly Dollar to provide headwinds for earning estimates (17 Jun)
middotFX weekly Fire and fury risks for the USD (10 Jun)
middotFX weekly Its not only Italy (03 Jun)
middotFX weekly The Sumo SOMA days (27 May)
middotFX weekly EM wont be sprinting if the Fed is unprinting (20 May)
middotFX weekly The two final nails in the dovish FOMC-con (13 May)
middotFX weekly Is there anything left in the USD bull-run (06 May)
middotFX weekly Dragon Energy (29 Apr)
middotFX weekly Relative curvature is the new king of FX (22 Apr)
middotFX weekly Why is EURUSD not trading lower (15 Apr)
middotFX weekly Like watching paint dry they said (08 Apr)
middotFX weekly The list of potential USD-positives is getting longer (01 Apr)
middotFX weekly 2 reasons why EURUSD has decoupled from rates spreads (25 Mar)
middotFX weekly Time to buy a USD lottery ticket (18 Mar)
middotFX weekly Taxation mirror on the wall who is the fairest of them all (11 Mar)
middotFX weekly Trumps game of chicken (04 Mar)
middotFX weekly Will the market neglect the clutch of canaries (25 Feb)
middotFX weekly Is the correlation break-down driven by FX hedges (18 Feb)
middotFX weekly The liquidity tide is ebbing (11 Feb)
middotFX weekly Hawkish spectacles (04 Feb)
middotFX weekly Who will stop EURUSD from moving higher (28 Jan)
middotFX weekly Did the Democrats dent the Dollar (21 Jan)
middotFX weekly Is 125 the new 120 (14 Jan)
middotFX weekly The euphoria rises (07 Jan)
middotFX weekly Paging Dr Pangloss (01 Jan)
middotFX weekly The R-star of Bethlehem (24 Dec)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
middotFX weekly A numbers game (17 Dec)
middotFX weekly The year-end liquidty shrink (10 Dec)
middotFX weekly Three reasons why EURUSD isnt trading lower (03 Dec)
middotFX weekly Which currencies to sell if the housing downturn continues (26 Nov)
middotFX weekly The global industrial cycle is set to weaken (19 Nov)
middotFX weekly Is high-yield a canary in the global coal mine (12 Nov)
middotFX weekly Is this the end of the inflation convergence trade in EURUSD (5 Nov)
middotFX weekly Was that it for the EUR bulls (29 Oct)
middotFX weekly Hawks in opposition doves in charge (22 Oct)
middot FX weeklyContinued convergence or re-divergence(15 Oct)
middotFX weekly Thingsdont matter until they do(08 Oct)
middotFX weekly October seasonality is strong (01 Oct)
middotFX weekly ldquoIs 120 the new 115rdquo(24 Sep)
middot FX weekly Honey I shrunk the balance sheet(17 Sep)
middot FX weekly ldquoUSD liquidity will turn scarcer but whenrdquo (10 Sep)
middot FX weekly ldquoStrong currencies and inflationrdquo(3 Sep)
middot FX weekly ldquoUSD in the (Jackson) holerdquo (27 Aug)
middot FX weekly ldquoQ4 is the USD quarterrdquo(20 Aug)
middot FX weekly ldquoIn the year 2525rdquo(13 Aug)
middot FX weekly ldquoEURUSD ceiling or debt ceilingrdquo(6 Aug)
middot FX weeklyldquoElevator up stairs down ldquo(30 Jul)
middot FX weeklyTrump ldquospicesrdquo up EURUSD(23 Jul)
middot FX weeklyFlip-flop(16 Jul)
middot FX weeklyConsolidation time(9 Jul)
middot FX weeklyHawks R Us(2 Jul)
middot FX weeklyAnother lowflation week(25 Jun)
middot FX weeklyNo Fed put(18 Jun)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
middot FX weeklyA bouncy dollar(11 Jun)
middot FX weeklyHeating up(4 Jun)
middot FX weeklySummertime sadness(28 May)
middot FX weeklySpecial counsel lessens Trumpbulence while OPEC looms(21 May)
middot FX weeklyAre China worries old hat(14 May)
middot FX weeklyInflation weekhellip(7 May)
Andreas Steno LarsenChief Global FXFI Strategistandreasstenolarsennordeacom+45 55 46 72 29
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
Chart 5 The USD yield curve slope (10yr-2yr) during times of QE and Twisting
A Twist operation (towards longer maturities) will obviously in itself flatten the curve but the Fed has usuallyended up steepening the curve during QE programs due to the positive side eects of the added USDliquidity The simple modus operandi is the following Bond purchases -gt more USD liquidity -gt better EMperformance -gt repricing of global growth -gt steeper curves
The curve outcome also depends on how aggressively the Fed intends to increase the WAM of the SOMA-portfolio In 2011-2012 the Fed increased the maturity from 6yrs to roughly 10yrs during the Twist operationWe doubt that the Fed would be willing to increase the WAM above 10yrs which makes the scope for a Twistoperation less material this time around due to the starting point just below 75yrs
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
Chart 6 The weighted average maturity of the Fed bond holdings during times of QE andTwisting
Our initial conclusion from the AIT-regime was that Emerging Markets would be on the receiving endof flows due to the subsequent very benign USD liquidity outlook It has already partly been the case basedon our EM capital flow proxy indicator Inflows to EM range around 05 standard-deviations above historicalaverages which could be seen as a sign that investors have already started to bet on EM as a consequence ofthe AIT-regime It does not mean that positioning is super long in EM but it is definitely not short either ndash atleast not outside of Brazil
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
Chart 7 EM has already seen a fair share of inflows over the past 2-3 months
Those who believe that the ldquocarry-environmentrdquo will continue to remain benign should probably look towardsINR CNH and maybe ZAR as attractive carry-to-vol bets even if the Chinese authorities may try to dampenthe momentum in CNH longs
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
Chart 8 Carry-to-vol heatmap in selected USD vs EM pairs
The Chinese authorities decided to reduce the cost of shorting Yuan by lowering FX forward reserveratios from 20 to 0 which eectively works to cheapen short positions in Yuan vs foreign FX Theopposite move was implemented roughly two years back when USDCNY traded towards 700 but at leastinitially had fairly limited impact We also doubt that this move is enough to turn the tide on the current soliddownwards momentum in USDCNH due to the attractive carry to vol in USDCNH shorts Cuts from thePBoC or higher USD rates are needed to really turn the tide
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
Chart 9 USDCNY vs deposit reserve ratios in China
The USD will likely remain cheap in ratesbasis terms in to year-end as the potential wave of USDliquidity from the US Treasury General Account paired with USD lending in FX swaps from banks stuckwith capital otherwise ldquoreservedrdquo for stock buy backs will keep USD funding markets afloat Our fair-valueindicator supports the notion that EUBSC (3m FX basis EUR vs USD) should trade towards 0 or even slightlyabove in the final stage of the year which hints that the year-turn could still be priced too expensively in USD(gt2 annualized) If the USD cheapens into year-end it will also come with repercussions for Scandi markets
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
Chart 10 3M EUR vs USD fx basis fair value model based on USD liquidity (assuming anadded 800bn from the US Treasury)
Scandi markets Year-end trades to make Buy SEK pay front-end SEK rates
Anders Tegnells fanbase is increasing worldwide the USD is cheapening over year-turn there is a limitedshort-term scope for a dovish repricing of the Riksbank while we could see a potential risk rally after theUS election The list of positive SEK arguments is growing STIBOR 3m has been compressed during thefirst week of October due to the year-turn pricing and the reverse relationship to the price of USDs (moreexpensive USDs lower Stibor) The SEK could be a winner into the latter part of the year also if STIBOR startsto rebound alongside a cheapening of the USD year-turn The 3M fixing bottomed out 20th of November in2017 19th of October in 2018 and 11th of October in 2019 and the Dec contract is still pricing below thecurrent fixing for this year It might be time to pay and go long SEK
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
Chart 11 Our proxy StiborOIS model hints at upside potential into year-end
The NOK is more of a dark horse into year-end since we are approaching the worst season of the year forthe Norwegian currency The Q4 negativity will probably not be front-runned to the same extent as we sawin 2019 when everyone and their mother went long EURNOK into October due to the poor seasonal NOKperformance The NOK ultimately ended up performing in December which may have put an end to this non-fundamental Q4 weakening story We basically see no fundamental reason behind the year-end slump inNOK outside of Norges Bank halting its FX purchases during the second half of December The NOK is hencemore of wildcard than SEK but it still looks fundamentally cheap
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
Chart 12 NOK usually struggles during Q4 but last years December performance may haveturned the tide
Our running track-record is always attached here
Previous FX weeklies
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middotFX weekly USD to be put in the Jackson Hole (16 Aug)
middotFX weekly Peoples QE (09 Aug)
middotFX weekly USD will remain the No1 reserve currency (02 Aug)
middotFX weekly Kanye vs Trump vs Biden (05 Jul)
middotFX weekly Europe vs US 1-0 (28 Jun)
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middotFX weekly Should we fear a second lock-down (21 Jun)
middotFX weekly USD liquidity is not going to be as ample (14 Jun)
middotFX weekly EURphoria and panic-YCC (07 Jun)
middotFX weekly An EU solution to a EUR problem (31 May)
middotFX weekly Time to buy a EUR lottery ticket (24 May)
middotFX weekly The trade deal was always born to die (17 May)
middotFX weekly How to trade NIRP coming to America (10 May)
middotFX weekly The rise of the Virolocracy (03 May)
middotFX weekly The EUR-tyranny of the minority (27 Apr)
middotFX weekly How to glue together the EUR-ship again (20 Apr)
middotFX weekly The flipside of Oprahnomics(13 Apr)
middotFX weekly USD needs to weaken or else Plaza Accord 20 is likely (06 Apr)
middotFX weekly Spraying the world with money instead of with disinfectant (29 Mar)
middotFX weekly There will be a crisis and new instruments will be created (22 Mar)
middotFX weekly Sweden and UK are the odd ones out (15 Mar)
middotFX weekly A big bucket of bummerballs (08 Mar)
middotFX weekly A preppers guide to trading Corona (01 Mar)
middotFX weekly Get ready for YCC (23 Feb)
middotFX weekly Mini Mike and the Mechanics (16 Feb)
middotFX weekly Feds balance sheet may need to grow more (09 Feb)
middotFX weekly Did the Virus originate in Norway (02 Feb)
middotFX weekly Mnuchin to trick Fed into more POMO (26 Jan)
middotFX weekly A green bubble to save the world (19 Jan)
middotFX weekly Bad news for NIRP-haters (12 Jan)
middotFX weekly Coupon-bearing securities smell of QE4 (05 Jan)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
middotFX weekly The Riksbank is not a leading indicator of the ECB (22 Dec)
middotFX weekly Merry Christmas from the POTUS (15 Dec)
middotFX weekly Why this is not 20152016 all over again (08 Dec)
middotFX weekly Waiting for Godot (01 Dec)
middotFX weekly Get ready for Climate QE 2 (24 Nov)
middotFX weekly FX space yet to corroborate the reflationistas (17 Nov)
middotFX weekly Dont extrapolate the 60 Bs (10 Nov)
middotFX weekly 99 problems but the NOK aint one (3 Nov)
middotFX weekly Something big just happened (27 Oct)
middotFX weekly The QE train to nowhere (20 Oct)
middotFX weekly The 50 Brsquos caused the downturn so what about the 60 Brsquos (13 Oct)
middotFX weekly Is everything falling apart (6 Oct)
middotFX weekly A new path for USD liquidity (29 Sep)
middotFX weekly Soft QE in October (22 Sep)
middotFX weekly Welcome to the birthday party (15 Sep)
middotFX weekly An early santa rally (08 Sep)
middotFX weekly Can you smell the Sushi yet (01 Sep)
middotFX weekly Mo taris mo cuts but whorsquos Sho Nu (25 Aug)
middotFX weekly First havens then sell confetti (18 Aug)
middotFX weekly The liquidity doom loop (11 Aug)
middotFX weekly Buy Treasuries Short Scandis Wear Diamonds (04 Aug)
middotFX weekly Lagarde better practice her Rhine dancing (28 Jul)
middotFX weekly Go big or go home (21 Jul)
middotFX weekly The liquidity plot thickens (14 Jul)
middotFX weekly e-scooters are silly (07Jul)
middotFX weekly One is exausted the other is nuts(30 Jun)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
middotFX weekly Time to bring in Steven Seagal 2 (23 Jun)
middotFX weekly Get ready for climate QE (16 Jun)
middotFX weekly Cut cut cut cut (09 Jun)
middotFX weekly The absolute madman (02 Jun)
middotFX weekly Will Xi be Nikithared (26 May)
middotFX weekly Trade war ping pong (19 May)
middotFX weekly A stairway to heaven for Krona shorts (12 May)
middotFX weekly Mnuchin to bail-out Fed (05 May)
middotFX weekly 3 reasons why the USD has been resurgent (28 Apr)
middotFX weekly No doomsday (yet) (21 Apr)
middotFX weekly In EUR we trust (14 Apr)
middotFX weekly Crouching Tiger Hidden Inflation Dragon (07 Apr)
middotFX weekly There is a smell of 2016 in the air (31 Mar)
middotFX weekly Dear Mr Powell (24 Mar)
middotFX weekly The devils advocate (17 Mar)
middotFX weekly Mario Bla-blaghi (10 Mar)
middotFX weekly Chinese reflation (3 Mar)
middotFX weekly QT cannot run forever (24 Feb)
middotFX weekly The USD is now in Trumps hands (17 Feb)
middotFX weekly Time to care about Euro area politics again (10 Feb)
middotFX weekly Is Powell turning into a MAGA-man (03 Feb)
middotFX weekly On climate angst and fake news (27 Jan)
middotFX weekly The Mnuchin bailout (20 Jan)
middotFX weekly FX weekly Cause Im a flip-flopper yes I am (13 Jan)
middotFX weekly FX weekly Treasury vs Fed (06 Jan)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
middotFX weekly Top 4 FXMM trades for Q1-2019 (01 Jan)
middotFX weekly On liquidity witches and warlocks (23 Dec)
middotFX weekly Qui Navance pas recule (16 Dec)
middotFX weekly Burnin down the house (9 Dec)
middotFX weekly In Gut we Trust (2 Dec)
middotFX weekly Pikachu aint no hobbit (25 Nov)
middotFX weekly Powell pondering pausing (18 Nov)
middotFX weekly Another SOMA-test of 113 (11 Nov)
middotFX weekly 113 will hold unless the Republicans keep both chambers (04 Nov)
middotFX weekly HIA SOMA and REBA-days (28 Oct)
middotFX weekly The debt ceiling is a USD ceiling (21 Oct)
middotFX weekly Volatility makes odd bedfellows (14 Oct)
middotFX weekly No Di-Maionnaise for your EURs (yet) (7 Oct)
middotFX weekly Along came year-end (30 Sep)
middotFX weekly Twin deficit scare 2 (23 Sep)
middotFX weekly The Pope of Nope has spoken (16 Sep)
middotFX weekly Who wants to impeach a +60 ISM president (09 Sep)
middotFX weekly It is time to go long Scandis again (02 Sep)
middotFX weekly The Conte-Trump alliance (26 Aug)
middotFX weekly Fat-burning shorts (19 Aug)
middotFX weekly Time to call in Steven Seagal(12 Aug)
middotFX weekly Is the cyclical momentum over-priced (05 Aug)
middotFX weekly How to trade a cease-fire (29 Jul)
middotFX weekly Whats that curve (22 Jul)
middotFX weekly The China Factor (15 Jul)
middotFX weekly Take a short trade war breather (08 Jul)
middotFX weekly Trump will never 238 (01 Jul)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
middotFX weekly The USD is the best carry currency in the world (24 Jun)
middotFX weekly Dollar to provide headwinds for earning estimates (17 Jun)
middotFX weekly Fire and fury risks for the USD (10 Jun)
middotFX weekly Its not only Italy (03 Jun)
middotFX weekly The Sumo SOMA days (27 May)
middotFX weekly EM wont be sprinting if the Fed is unprinting (20 May)
middotFX weekly The two final nails in the dovish FOMC-con (13 May)
middotFX weekly Is there anything left in the USD bull-run (06 May)
middotFX weekly Dragon Energy (29 Apr)
middotFX weekly Relative curvature is the new king of FX (22 Apr)
middotFX weekly Why is EURUSD not trading lower (15 Apr)
middotFX weekly Like watching paint dry they said (08 Apr)
middotFX weekly The list of potential USD-positives is getting longer (01 Apr)
middotFX weekly 2 reasons why EURUSD has decoupled from rates spreads (25 Mar)
middotFX weekly Time to buy a USD lottery ticket (18 Mar)
middotFX weekly Taxation mirror on the wall who is the fairest of them all (11 Mar)
middotFX weekly Trumps game of chicken (04 Mar)
middotFX weekly Will the market neglect the clutch of canaries (25 Feb)
middotFX weekly Is the correlation break-down driven by FX hedges (18 Feb)
middotFX weekly The liquidity tide is ebbing (11 Feb)
middotFX weekly Hawkish spectacles (04 Feb)
middotFX weekly Who will stop EURUSD from moving higher (28 Jan)
middotFX weekly Did the Democrats dent the Dollar (21 Jan)
middotFX weekly Is 125 the new 120 (14 Jan)
middotFX weekly The euphoria rises (07 Jan)
middotFX weekly Paging Dr Pangloss (01 Jan)
middotFX weekly The R-star of Bethlehem (24 Dec)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
middotFX weekly A numbers game (17 Dec)
middotFX weekly The year-end liquidty shrink (10 Dec)
middotFX weekly Three reasons why EURUSD isnt trading lower (03 Dec)
middotFX weekly Which currencies to sell if the housing downturn continues (26 Nov)
middotFX weekly The global industrial cycle is set to weaken (19 Nov)
middotFX weekly Is high-yield a canary in the global coal mine (12 Nov)
middotFX weekly Is this the end of the inflation convergence trade in EURUSD (5 Nov)
middotFX weekly Was that it for the EUR bulls (29 Oct)
middotFX weekly Hawks in opposition doves in charge (22 Oct)
middot FX weeklyContinued convergence or re-divergence(15 Oct)
middotFX weekly Thingsdont matter until they do(08 Oct)
middotFX weekly October seasonality is strong (01 Oct)
middotFX weekly ldquoIs 120 the new 115rdquo(24 Sep)
middot FX weekly Honey I shrunk the balance sheet(17 Sep)
middot FX weekly ldquoUSD liquidity will turn scarcer but whenrdquo (10 Sep)
middot FX weekly ldquoStrong currencies and inflationrdquo(3 Sep)
middot FX weekly ldquoUSD in the (Jackson) holerdquo (27 Aug)
middot FX weekly ldquoQ4 is the USD quarterrdquo(20 Aug)
middot FX weekly ldquoIn the year 2525rdquo(13 Aug)
middot FX weekly ldquoEURUSD ceiling or debt ceilingrdquo(6 Aug)
middot FX weeklyldquoElevator up stairs down ldquo(30 Jul)
middot FX weeklyTrump ldquospicesrdquo up EURUSD(23 Jul)
middot FX weeklyFlip-flop(16 Jul)
middot FX weeklyConsolidation time(9 Jul)
middot FX weeklyHawks R Us(2 Jul)
middot FX weeklyAnother lowflation week(25 Jun)
middot FX weeklyNo Fed put(18 Jun)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
middot FX weeklyA bouncy dollar(11 Jun)
middot FX weeklyHeating up(4 Jun)
middot FX weeklySummertime sadness(28 May)
middot FX weeklySpecial counsel lessens Trumpbulence while OPEC looms(21 May)
middot FX weeklyAre China worries old hat(14 May)
middot FX weeklyInflation weekhellip(7 May)
Andreas Steno LarsenChief Global FXFI Strategistandreasstenolarsennordeacom+45 55 46 72 29
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
Chart 6 The weighted average maturity of the Fed bond holdings during times of QE andTwisting
Our initial conclusion from the AIT-regime was that Emerging Markets would be on the receiving endof flows due to the subsequent very benign USD liquidity outlook It has already partly been the case basedon our EM capital flow proxy indicator Inflows to EM range around 05 standard-deviations above historicalaverages which could be seen as a sign that investors have already started to bet on EM as a consequence ofthe AIT-regime It does not mean that positioning is super long in EM but it is definitely not short either ndash atleast not outside of Brazil
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
Chart 7 EM has already seen a fair share of inflows over the past 2-3 months
Those who believe that the ldquocarry-environmentrdquo will continue to remain benign should probably look towardsINR CNH and maybe ZAR as attractive carry-to-vol bets even if the Chinese authorities may try to dampenthe momentum in CNH longs
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
Chart 8 Carry-to-vol heatmap in selected USD vs EM pairs
The Chinese authorities decided to reduce the cost of shorting Yuan by lowering FX forward reserveratios from 20 to 0 which eectively works to cheapen short positions in Yuan vs foreign FX Theopposite move was implemented roughly two years back when USDCNY traded towards 700 but at leastinitially had fairly limited impact We also doubt that this move is enough to turn the tide on the current soliddownwards momentum in USDCNH due to the attractive carry to vol in USDCNH shorts Cuts from thePBoC or higher USD rates are needed to really turn the tide
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
Chart 9 USDCNY vs deposit reserve ratios in China
The USD will likely remain cheap in ratesbasis terms in to year-end as the potential wave of USDliquidity from the US Treasury General Account paired with USD lending in FX swaps from banks stuckwith capital otherwise ldquoreservedrdquo for stock buy backs will keep USD funding markets afloat Our fair-valueindicator supports the notion that EUBSC (3m FX basis EUR vs USD) should trade towards 0 or even slightlyabove in the final stage of the year which hints that the year-turn could still be priced too expensively in USD(gt2 annualized) If the USD cheapens into year-end it will also come with repercussions for Scandi markets
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
Chart 10 3M EUR vs USD fx basis fair value model based on USD liquidity (assuming anadded 800bn from the US Treasury)
Scandi markets Year-end trades to make Buy SEK pay front-end SEK rates
Anders Tegnells fanbase is increasing worldwide the USD is cheapening over year-turn there is a limitedshort-term scope for a dovish repricing of the Riksbank while we could see a potential risk rally after theUS election The list of positive SEK arguments is growing STIBOR 3m has been compressed during thefirst week of October due to the year-turn pricing and the reverse relationship to the price of USDs (moreexpensive USDs lower Stibor) The SEK could be a winner into the latter part of the year also if STIBOR startsto rebound alongside a cheapening of the USD year-turn The 3M fixing bottomed out 20th of November in2017 19th of October in 2018 and 11th of October in 2019 and the Dec contract is still pricing below thecurrent fixing for this year It might be time to pay and go long SEK
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
Chart 11 Our proxy StiborOIS model hints at upside potential into year-end
The NOK is more of a dark horse into year-end since we are approaching the worst season of the year forthe Norwegian currency The Q4 negativity will probably not be front-runned to the same extent as we sawin 2019 when everyone and their mother went long EURNOK into October due to the poor seasonal NOKperformance The NOK ultimately ended up performing in December which may have put an end to this non-fundamental Q4 weakening story We basically see no fundamental reason behind the year-end slump inNOK outside of Norges Bank halting its FX purchases during the second half of December The NOK is hencemore of wildcard than SEK but it still looks fundamentally cheap
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
Chart 12 NOK usually struggles during Q4 but last years December performance may haveturned the tide
Our running track-record is always attached here
Previous FX weeklies
FX weekly Corona Trump (02 Oct)
FX weekly Grin and Barrett (27 Sep)
FX weekly AIT is maybe not as dovish as we thought (20 Sep)
FX weekly AIT means easier financial conditions (13 Sep)
FX weekly Good luck Powell (23 Aug)
middotFX weekly USD to be put in the Jackson Hole (16 Aug)
middotFX weekly Peoples QE (09 Aug)
middotFX weekly USD will remain the No1 reserve currency (02 Aug)
middotFX weekly Kanye vs Trump vs Biden (05 Jul)
middotFX weekly Europe vs US 1-0 (28 Jun)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
middotFX weekly Should we fear a second lock-down (21 Jun)
middotFX weekly USD liquidity is not going to be as ample (14 Jun)
middotFX weekly EURphoria and panic-YCC (07 Jun)
middotFX weekly An EU solution to a EUR problem (31 May)
middotFX weekly Time to buy a EUR lottery ticket (24 May)
middotFX weekly The trade deal was always born to die (17 May)
middotFX weekly How to trade NIRP coming to America (10 May)
middotFX weekly The rise of the Virolocracy (03 May)
middotFX weekly The EUR-tyranny of the minority (27 Apr)
middotFX weekly How to glue together the EUR-ship again (20 Apr)
middotFX weekly The flipside of Oprahnomics(13 Apr)
middotFX weekly USD needs to weaken or else Plaza Accord 20 is likely (06 Apr)
middotFX weekly Spraying the world with money instead of with disinfectant (29 Mar)
middotFX weekly There will be a crisis and new instruments will be created (22 Mar)
middotFX weekly Sweden and UK are the odd ones out (15 Mar)
middotFX weekly A big bucket of bummerballs (08 Mar)
middotFX weekly A preppers guide to trading Corona (01 Mar)
middotFX weekly Get ready for YCC (23 Feb)
middotFX weekly Mini Mike and the Mechanics (16 Feb)
middotFX weekly Feds balance sheet may need to grow more (09 Feb)
middotFX weekly Did the Virus originate in Norway (02 Feb)
middotFX weekly Mnuchin to trick Fed into more POMO (26 Jan)
middotFX weekly A green bubble to save the world (19 Jan)
middotFX weekly Bad news for NIRP-haters (12 Jan)
middotFX weekly Coupon-bearing securities smell of QE4 (05 Jan)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
middotFX weekly The Riksbank is not a leading indicator of the ECB (22 Dec)
middotFX weekly Merry Christmas from the POTUS (15 Dec)
middotFX weekly Why this is not 20152016 all over again (08 Dec)
middotFX weekly Waiting for Godot (01 Dec)
middotFX weekly Get ready for Climate QE 2 (24 Nov)
middotFX weekly FX space yet to corroborate the reflationistas (17 Nov)
middotFX weekly Dont extrapolate the 60 Bs (10 Nov)
middotFX weekly 99 problems but the NOK aint one (3 Nov)
middotFX weekly Something big just happened (27 Oct)
middotFX weekly The QE train to nowhere (20 Oct)
middotFX weekly The 50 Brsquos caused the downturn so what about the 60 Brsquos (13 Oct)
middotFX weekly Is everything falling apart (6 Oct)
middotFX weekly A new path for USD liquidity (29 Sep)
middotFX weekly Soft QE in October (22 Sep)
middotFX weekly Welcome to the birthday party (15 Sep)
middotFX weekly An early santa rally (08 Sep)
middotFX weekly Can you smell the Sushi yet (01 Sep)
middotFX weekly Mo taris mo cuts but whorsquos Sho Nu (25 Aug)
middotFX weekly First havens then sell confetti (18 Aug)
middotFX weekly The liquidity doom loop (11 Aug)
middotFX weekly Buy Treasuries Short Scandis Wear Diamonds (04 Aug)
middotFX weekly Lagarde better practice her Rhine dancing (28 Jul)
middotFX weekly Go big or go home (21 Jul)
middotFX weekly The liquidity plot thickens (14 Jul)
middotFX weekly e-scooters are silly (07Jul)
middotFX weekly One is exausted the other is nuts(30 Jun)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
middotFX weekly Time to bring in Steven Seagal 2 (23 Jun)
middotFX weekly Get ready for climate QE (16 Jun)
middotFX weekly Cut cut cut cut (09 Jun)
middotFX weekly The absolute madman (02 Jun)
middotFX weekly Will Xi be Nikithared (26 May)
middotFX weekly Trade war ping pong (19 May)
middotFX weekly A stairway to heaven for Krona shorts (12 May)
middotFX weekly Mnuchin to bail-out Fed (05 May)
middotFX weekly 3 reasons why the USD has been resurgent (28 Apr)
middotFX weekly No doomsday (yet) (21 Apr)
middotFX weekly In EUR we trust (14 Apr)
middotFX weekly Crouching Tiger Hidden Inflation Dragon (07 Apr)
middotFX weekly There is a smell of 2016 in the air (31 Mar)
middotFX weekly Dear Mr Powell (24 Mar)
middotFX weekly The devils advocate (17 Mar)
middotFX weekly Mario Bla-blaghi (10 Mar)
middotFX weekly Chinese reflation (3 Mar)
middotFX weekly QT cannot run forever (24 Feb)
middotFX weekly The USD is now in Trumps hands (17 Feb)
middotFX weekly Time to care about Euro area politics again (10 Feb)
middotFX weekly Is Powell turning into a MAGA-man (03 Feb)
middotFX weekly On climate angst and fake news (27 Jan)
middotFX weekly The Mnuchin bailout (20 Jan)
middotFX weekly FX weekly Cause Im a flip-flopper yes I am (13 Jan)
middotFX weekly FX weekly Treasury vs Fed (06 Jan)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
middotFX weekly Top 4 FXMM trades for Q1-2019 (01 Jan)
middotFX weekly On liquidity witches and warlocks (23 Dec)
middotFX weekly Qui Navance pas recule (16 Dec)
middotFX weekly Burnin down the house (9 Dec)
middotFX weekly In Gut we Trust (2 Dec)
middotFX weekly Pikachu aint no hobbit (25 Nov)
middotFX weekly Powell pondering pausing (18 Nov)
middotFX weekly Another SOMA-test of 113 (11 Nov)
middotFX weekly 113 will hold unless the Republicans keep both chambers (04 Nov)
middotFX weekly HIA SOMA and REBA-days (28 Oct)
middotFX weekly The debt ceiling is a USD ceiling (21 Oct)
middotFX weekly Volatility makes odd bedfellows (14 Oct)
middotFX weekly No Di-Maionnaise for your EURs (yet) (7 Oct)
middotFX weekly Along came year-end (30 Sep)
middotFX weekly Twin deficit scare 2 (23 Sep)
middotFX weekly The Pope of Nope has spoken (16 Sep)
middotFX weekly Who wants to impeach a +60 ISM president (09 Sep)
middotFX weekly It is time to go long Scandis again (02 Sep)
middotFX weekly The Conte-Trump alliance (26 Aug)
middotFX weekly Fat-burning shorts (19 Aug)
middotFX weekly Time to call in Steven Seagal(12 Aug)
middotFX weekly Is the cyclical momentum over-priced (05 Aug)
middotFX weekly How to trade a cease-fire (29 Jul)
middotFX weekly Whats that curve (22 Jul)
middotFX weekly The China Factor (15 Jul)
middotFX weekly Take a short trade war breather (08 Jul)
middotFX weekly Trump will never 238 (01 Jul)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
middotFX weekly The USD is the best carry currency in the world (24 Jun)
middotFX weekly Dollar to provide headwinds for earning estimates (17 Jun)
middotFX weekly Fire and fury risks for the USD (10 Jun)
middotFX weekly Its not only Italy (03 Jun)
middotFX weekly The Sumo SOMA days (27 May)
middotFX weekly EM wont be sprinting if the Fed is unprinting (20 May)
middotFX weekly The two final nails in the dovish FOMC-con (13 May)
middotFX weekly Is there anything left in the USD bull-run (06 May)
middotFX weekly Dragon Energy (29 Apr)
middotFX weekly Relative curvature is the new king of FX (22 Apr)
middotFX weekly Why is EURUSD not trading lower (15 Apr)
middotFX weekly Like watching paint dry they said (08 Apr)
middotFX weekly The list of potential USD-positives is getting longer (01 Apr)
middotFX weekly 2 reasons why EURUSD has decoupled from rates spreads (25 Mar)
middotFX weekly Time to buy a USD lottery ticket (18 Mar)
middotFX weekly Taxation mirror on the wall who is the fairest of them all (11 Mar)
middotFX weekly Trumps game of chicken (04 Mar)
middotFX weekly Will the market neglect the clutch of canaries (25 Feb)
middotFX weekly Is the correlation break-down driven by FX hedges (18 Feb)
middotFX weekly The liquidity tide is ebbing (11 Feb)
middotFX weekly Hawkish spectacles (04 Feb)
middotFX weekly Who will stop EURUSD from moving higher (28 Jan)
middotFX weekly Did the Democrats dent the Dollar (21 Jan)
middotFX weekly Is 125 the new 120 (14 Jan)
middotFX weekly The euphoria rises (07 Jan)
middotFX weekly Paging Dr Pangloss (01 Jan)
middotFX weekly The R-star of Bethlehem (24 Dec)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
middotFX weekly A numbers game (17 Dec)
middotFX weekly The year-end liquidty shrink (10 Dec)
middotFX weekly Three reasons why EURUSD isnt trading lower (03 Dec)
middotFX weekly Which currencies to sell if the housing downturn continues (26 Nov)
middotFX weekly The global industrial cycle is set to weaken (19 Nov)
middotFX weekly Is high-yield a canary in the global coal mine (12 Nov)
middotFX weekly Is this the end of the inflation convergence trade in EURUSD (5 Nov)
middotFX weekly Was that it for the EUR bulls (29 Oct)
middotFX weekly Hawks in opposition doves in charge (22 Oct)
middot FX weeklyContinued convergence or re-divergence(15 Oct)
middotFX weekly Thingsdont matter until they do(08 Oct)
middotFX weekly October seasonality is strong (01 Oct)
middotFX weekly ldquoIs 120 the new 115rdquo(24 Sep)
middot FX weekly Honey I shrunk the balance sheet(17 Sep)
middot FX weekly ldquoUSD liquidity will turn scarcer but whenrdquo (10 Sep)
middot FX weekly ldquoStrong currencies and inflationrdquo(3 Sep)
middot FX weekly ldquoUSD in the (Jackson) holerdquo (27 Aug)
middot FX weekly ldquoQ4 is the USD quarterrdquo(20 Aug)
middot FX weekly ldquoIn the year 2525rdquo(13 Aug)
middot FX weekly ldquoEURUSD ceiling or debt ceilingrdquo(6 Aug)
middot FX weeklyldquoElevator up stairs down ldquo(30 Jul)
middot FX weeklyTrump ldquospicesrdquo up EURUSD(23 Jul)
middot FX weeklyFlip-flop(16 Jul)
middot FX weeklyConsolidation time(9 Jul)
middot FX weeklyHawks R Us(2 Jul)
middot FX weeklyAnother lowflation week(25 Jun)
middot FX weeklyNo Fed put(18 Jun)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
middot FX weeklyA bouncy dollar(11 Jun)
middot FX weeklyHeating up(4 Jun)
middot FX weeklySummertime sadness(28 May)
middot FX weeklySpecial counsel lessens Trumpbulence while OPEC looms(21 May)
middot FX weeklyAre China worries old hat(14 May)
middot FX weeklyInflation weekhellip(7 May)
Andreas Steno LarsenChief Global FXFI Strategistandreasstenolarsennordeacom+45 55 46 72 29
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
Chart 7 EM has already seen a fair share of inflows over the past 2-3 months
Those who believe that the ldquocarry-environmentrdquo will continue to remain benign should probably look towardsINR CNH and maybe ZAR as attractive carry-to-vol bets even if the Chinese authorities may try to dampenthe momentum in CNH longs
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
Chart 8 Carry-to-vol heatmap in selected USD vs EM pairs
The Chinese authorities decided to reduce the cost of shorting Yuan by lowering FX forward reserveratios from 20 to 0 which eectively works to cheapen short positions in Yuan vs foreign FX Theopposite move was implemented roughly two years back when USDCNY traded towards 700 but at leastinitially had fairly limited impact We also doubt that this move is enough to turn the tide on the current soliddownwards momentum in USDCNH due to the attractive carry to vol in USDCNH shorts Cuts from thePBoC or higher USD rates are needed to really turn the tide
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
Chart 9 USDCNY vs deposit reserve ratios in China
The USD will likely remain cheap in ratesbasis terms in to year-end as the potential wave of USDliquidity from the US Treasury General Account paired with USD lending in FX swaps from banks stuckwith capital otherwise ldquoreservedrdquo for stock buy backs will keep USD funding markets afloat Our fair-valueindicator supports the notion that EUBSC (3m FX basis EUR vs USD) should trade towards 0 or even slightlyabove in the final stage of the year which hints that the year-turn could still be priced too expensively in USD(gt2 annualized) If the USD cheapens into year-end it will also come with repercussions for Scandi markets
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
Chart 10 3M EUR vs USD fx basis fair value model based on USD liquidity (assuming anadded 800bn from the US Treasury)
Scandi markets Year-end trades to make Buy SEK pay front-end SEK rates
Anders Tegnells fanbase is increasing worldwide the USD is cheapening over year-turn there is a limitedshort-term scope for a dovish repricing of the Riksbank while we could see a potential risk rally after theUS election The list of positive SEK arguments is growing STIBOR 3m has been compressed during thefirst week of October due to the year-turn pricing and the reverse relationship to the price of USDs (moreexpensive USDs lower Stibor) The SEK could be a winner into the latter part of the year also if STIBOR startsto rebound alongside a cheapening of the USD year-turn The 3M fixing bottomed out 20th of November in2017 19th of October in 2018 and 11th of October in 2019 and the Dec contract is still pricing below thecurrent fixing for this year It might be time to pay and go long SEK
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
Chart 11 Our proxy StiborOIS model hints at upside potential into year-end
The NOK is more of a dark horse into year-end since we are approaching the worst season of the year forthe Norwegian currency The Q4 negativity will probably not be front-runned to the same extent as we sawin 2019 when everyone and their mother went long EURNOK into October due to the poor seasonal NOKperformance The NOK ultimately ended up performing in December which may have put an end to this non-fundamental Q4 weakening story We basically see no fundamental reason behind the year-end slump inNOK outside of Norges Bank halting its FX purchases during the second half of December The NOK is hencemore of wildcard than SEK but it still looks fundamentally cheap
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
Chart 12 NOK usually struggles during Q4 but last years December performance may haveturned the tide
Our running track-record is always attached here
Previous FX weeklies
FX weekly Corona Trump (02 Oct)
FX weekly Grin and Barrett (27 Sep)
FX weekly AIT is maybe not as dovish as we thought (20 Sep)
FX weekly AIT means easier financial conditions (13 Sep)
FX weekly Good luck Powell (23 Aug)
middotFX weekly USD to be put in the Jackson Hole (16 Aug)
middotFX weekly Peoples QE (09 Aug)
middotFX weekly USD will remain the No1 reserve currency (02 Aug)
middotFX weekly Kanye vs Trump vs Biden (05 Jul)
middotFX weekly Europe vs US 1-0 (28 Jun)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
middotFX weekly Should we fear a second lock-down (21 Jun)
middotFX weekly USD liquidity is not going to be as ample (14 Jun)
middotFX weekly EURphoria and panic-YCC (07 Jun)
middotFX weekly An EU solution to a EUR problem (31 May)
middotFX weekly Time to buy a EUR lottery ticket (24 May)
middotFX weekly The trade deal was always born to die (17 May)
middotFX weekly How to trade NIRP coming to America (10 May)
middotFX weekly The rise of the Virolocracy (03 May)
middotFX weekly The EUR-tyranny of the minority (27 Apr)
middotFX weekly How to glue together the EUR-ship again (20 Apr)
middotFX weekly The flipside of Oprahnomics(13 Apr)
middotFX weekly USD needs to weaken or else Plaza Accord 20 is likely (06 Apr)
middotFX weekly Spraying the world with money instead of with disinfectant (29 Mar)
middotFX weekly There will be a crisis and new instruments will be created (22 Mar)
middotFX weekly Sweden and UK are the odd ones out (15 Mar)
middotFX weekly A big bucket of bummerballs (08 Mar)
middotFX weekly A preppers guide to trading Corona (01 Mar)
middotFX weekly Get ready for YCC (23 Feb)
middotFX weekly Mini Mike and the Mechanics (16 Feb)
middotFX weekly Feds balance sheet may need to grow more (09 Feb)
middotFX weekly Did the Virus originate in Norway (02 Feb)
middotFX weekly Mnuchin to trick Fed into more POMO (26 Jan)
middotFX weekly A green bubble to save the world (19 Jan)
middotFX weekly Bad news for NIRP-haters (12 Jan)
middotFX weekly Coupon-bearing securities smell of QE4 (05 Jan)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
middotFX weekly The Riksbank is not a leading indicator of the ECB (22 Dec)
middotFX weekly Merry Christmas from the POTUS (15 Dec)
middotFX weekly Why this is not 20152016 all over again (08 Dec)
middotFX weekly Waiting for Godot (01 Dec)
middotFX weekly Get ready for Climate QE 2 (24 Nov)
middotFX weekly FX space yet to corroborate the reflationistas (17 Nov)
middotFX weekly Dont extrapolate the 60 Bs (10 Nov)
middotFX weekly 99 problems but the NOK aint one (3 Nov)
middotFX weekly Something big just happened (27 Oct)
middotFX weekly The QE train to nowhere (20 Oct)
middotFX weekly The 50 Brsquos caused the downturn so what about the 60 Brsquos (13 Oct)
middotFX weekly Is everything falling apart (6 Oct)
middotFX weekly A new path for USD liquidity (29 Sep)
middotFX weekly Soft QE in October (22 Sep)
middotFX weekly Welcome to the birthday party (15 Sep)
middotFX weekly An early santa rally (08 Sep)
middotFX weekly Can you smell the Sushi yet (01 Sep)
middotFX weekly Mo taris mo cuts but whorsquos Sho Nu (25 Aug)
middotFX weekly First havens then sell confetti (18 Aug)
middotFX weekly The liquidity doom loop (11 Aug)
middotFX weekly Buy Treasuries Short Scandis Wear Diamonds (04 Aug)
middotFX weekly Lagarde better practice her Rhine dancing (28 Jul)
middotFX weekly Go big or go home (21 Jul)
middotFX weekly The liquidity plot thickens (14 Jul)
middotFX weekly e-scooters are silly (07Jul)
middotFX weekly One is exausted the other is nuts(30 Jun)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
middotFX weekly Time to bring in Steven Seagal 2 (23 Jun)
middotFX weekly Get ready for climate QE (16 Jun)
middotFX weekly Cut cut cut cut (09 Jun)
middotFX weekly The absolute madman (02 Jun)
middotFX weekly Will Xi be Nikithared (26 May)
middotFX weekly Trade war ping pong (19 May)
middotFX weekly A stairway to heaven for Krona shorts (12 May)
middotFX weekly Mnuchin to bail-out Fed (05 May)
middotFX weekly 3 reasons why the USD has been resurgent (28 Apr)
middotFX weekly No doomsday (yet) (21 Apr)
middotFX weekly In EUR we trust (14 Apr)
middotFX weekly Crouching Tiger Hidden Inflation Dragon (07 Apr)
middotFX weekly There is a smell of 2016 in the air (31 Mar)
middotFX weekly Dear Mr Powell (24 Mar)
middotFX weekly The devils advocate (17 Mar)
middotFX weekly Mario Bla-blaghi (10 Mar)
middotFX weekly Chinese reflation (3 Mar)
middotFX weekly QT cannot run forever (24 Feb)
middotFX weekly The USD is now in Trumps hands (17 Feb)
middotFX weekly Time to care about Euro area politics again (10 Feb)
middotFX weekly Is Powell turning into a MAGA-man (03 Feb)
middotFX weekly On climate angst and fake news (27 Jan)
middotFX weekly The Mnuchin bailout (20 Jan)
middotFX weekly FX weekly Cause Im a flip-flopper yes I am (13 Jan)
middotFX weekly FX weekly Treasury vs Fed (06 Jan)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
middotFX weekly Top 4 FXMM trades for Q1-2019 (01 Jan)
middotFX weekly On liquidity witches and warlocks (23 Dec)
middotFX weekly Qui Navance pas recule (16 Dec)
middotFX weekly Burnin down the house (9 Dec)
middotFX weekly In Gut we Trust (2 Dec)
middotFX weekly Pikachu aint no hobbit (25 Nov)
middotFX weekly Powell pondering pausing (18 Nov)
middotFX weekly Another SOMA-test of 113 (11 Nov)
middotFX weekly 113 will hold unless the Republicans keep both chambers (04 Nov)
middotFX weekly HIA SOMA and REBA-days (28 Oct)
middotFX weekly The debt ceiling is a USD ceiling (21 Oct)
middotFX weekly Volatility makes odd bedfellows (14 Oct)
middotFX weekly No Di-Maionnaise for your EURs (yet) (7 Oct)
middotFX weekly Along came year-end (30 Sep)
middotFX weekly Twin deficit scare 2 (23 Sep)
middotFX weekly The Pope of Nope has spoken (16 Sep)
middotFX weekly Who wants to impeach a +60 ISM president (09 Sep)
middotFX weekly It is time to go long Scandis again (02 Sep)
middotFX weekly The Conte-Trump alliance (26 Aug)
middotFX weekly Fat-burning shorts (19 Aug)
middotFX weekly Time to call in Steven Seagal(12 Aug)
middotFX weekly Is the cyclical momentum over-priced (05 Aug)
middotFX weekly How to trade a cease-fire (29 Jul)
middotFX weekly Whats that curve (22 Jul)
middotFX weekly The China Factor (15 Jul)
middotFX weekly Take a short trade war breather (08 Jul)
middotFX weekly Trump will never 238 (01 Jul)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
middotFX weekly The USD is the best carry currency in the world (24 Jun)
middotFX weekly Dollar to provide headwinds for earning estimates (17 Jun)
middotFX weekly Fire and fury risks for the USD (10 Jun)
middotFX weekly Its not only Italy (03 Jun)
middotFX weekly The Sumo SOMA days (27 May)
middotFX weekly EM wont be sprinting if the Fed is unprinting (20 May)
middotFX weekly The two final nails in the dovish FOMC-con (13 May)
middotFX weekly Is there anything left in the USD bull-run (06 May)
middotFX weekly Dragon Energy (29 Apr)
middotFX weekly Relative curvature is the new king of FX (22 Apr)
middotFX weekly Why is EURUSD not trading lower (15 Apr)
middotFX weekly Like watching paint dry they said (08 Apr)
middotFX weekly The list of potential USD-positives is getting longer (01 Apr)
middotFX weekly 2 reasons why EURUSD has decoupled from rates spreads (25 Mar)
middotFX weekly Time to buy a USD lottery ticket (18 Mar)
middotFX weekly Taxation mirror on the wall who is the fairest of them all (11 Mar)
middotFX weekly Trumps game of chicken (04 Mar)
middotFX weekly Will the market neglect the clutch of canaries (25 Feb)
middotFX weekly Is the correlation break-down driven by FX hedges (18 Feb)
middotFX weekly The liquidity tide is ebbing (11 Feb)
middotFX weekly Hawkish spectacles (04 Feb)
middotFX weekly Who will stop EURUSD from moving higher (28 Jan)
middotFX weekly Did the Democrats dent the Dollar (21 Jan)
middotFX weekly Is 125 the new 120 (14 Jan)
middotFX weekly The euphoria rises (07 Jan)
middotFX weekly Paging Dr Pangloss (01 Jan)
middotFX weekly The R-star of Bethlehem (24 Dec)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
middotFX weekly A numbers game (17 Dec)
middotFX weekly The year-end liquidty shrink (10 Dec)
middotFX weekly Three reasons why EURUSD isnt trading lower (03 Dec)
middotFX weekly Which currencies to sell if the housing downturn continues (26 Nov)
middotFX weekly The global industrial cycle is set to weaken (19 Nov)
middotFX weekly Is high-yield a canary in the global coal mine (12 Nov)
middotFX weekly Is this the end of the inflation convergence trade in EURUSD (5 Nov)
middotFX weekly Was that it for the EUR bulls (29 Oct)
middotFX weekly Hawks in opposition doves in charge (22 Oct)
middot FX weeklyContinued convergence or re-divergence(15 Oct)
middotFX weekly Thingsdont matter until they do(08 Oct)
middotFX weekly October seasonality is strong (01 Oct)
middotFX weekly ldquoIs 120 the new 115rdquo(24 Sep)
middot FX weekly Honey I shrunk the balance sheet(17 Sep)
middot FX weekly ldquoUSD liquidity will turn scarcer but whenrdquo (10 Sep)
middot FX weekly ldquoStrong currencies and inflationrdquo(3 Sep)
middot FX weekly ldquoUSD in the (Jackson) holerdquo (27 Aug)
middot FX weekly ldquoQ4 is the USD quarterrdquo(20 Aug)
middot FX weekly ldquoIn the year 2525rdquo(13 Aug)
middot FX weekly ldquoEURUSD ceiling or debt ceilingrdquo(6 Aug)
middot FX weeklyldquoElevator up stairs down ldquo(30 Jul)
middot FX weeklyTrump ldquospicesrdquo up EURUSD(23 Jul)
middot FX weeklyFlip-flop(16 Jul)
middot FX weeklyConsolidation time(9 Jul)
middot FX weeklyHawks R Us(2 Jul)
middot FX weeklyAnother lowflation week(25 Jun)
middot FX weeklyNo Fed put(18 Jun)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
middot FX weeklyA bouncy dollar(11 Jun)
middot FX weeklyHeating up(4 Jun)
middot FX weeklySummertime sadness(28 May)
middot FX weeklySpecial counsel lessens Trumpbulence while OPEC looms(21 May)
middot FX weeklyAre China worries old hat(14 May)
middot FX weeklyInflation weekhellip(7 May)
Andreas Steno LarsenChief Global FXFI Strategistandreasstenolarsennordeacom+45 55 46 72 29
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
Chart 8 Carry-to-vol heatmap in selected USD vs EM pairs
The Chinese authorities decided to reduce the cost of shorting Yuan by lowering FX forward reserveratios from 20 to 0 which eectively works to cheapen short positions in Yuan vs foreign FX Theopposite move was implemented roughly two years back when USDCNY traded towards 700 but at leastinitially had fairly limited impact We also doubt that this move is enough to turn the tide on the current soliddownwards momentum in USDCNH due to the attractive carry to vol in USDCNH shorts Cuts from thePBoC or higher USD rates are needed to really turn the tide
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
Chart 9 USDCNY vs deposit reserve ratios in China
The USD will likely remain cheap in ratesbasis terms in to year-end as the potential wave of USDliquidity from the US Treasury General Account paired with USD lending in FX swaps from banks stuckwith capital otherwise ldquoreservedrdquo for stock buy backs will keep USD funding markets afloat Our fair-valueindicator supports the notion that EUBSC (3m FX basis EUR vs USD) should trade towards 0 or even slightlyabove in the final stage of the year which hints that the year-turn could still be priced too expensively in USD(gt2 annualized) If the USD cheapens into year-end it will also come with repercussions for Scandi markets
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
Chart 10 3M EUR vs USD fx basis fair value model based on USD liquidity (assuming anadded 800bn from the US Treasury)
Scandi markets Year-end trades to make Buy SEK pay front-end SEK rates
Anders Tegnells fanbase is increasing worldwide the USD is cheapening over year-turn there is a limitedshort-term scope for a dovish repricing of the Riksbank while we could see a potential risk rally after theUS election The list of positive SEK arguments is growing STIBOR 3m has been compressed during thefirst week of October due to the year-turn pricing and the reverse relationship to the price of USDs (moreexpensive USDs lower Stibor) The SEK could be a winner into the latter part of the year also if STIBOR startsto rebound alongside a cheapening of the USD year-turn The 3M fixing bottomed out 20th of November in2017 19th of October in 2018 and 11th of October in 2019 and the Dec contract is still pricing below thecurrent fixing for this year It might be time to pay and go long SEK
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
Chart 11 Our proxy StiborOIS model hints at upside potential into year-end
The NOK is more of a dark horse into year-end since we are approaching the worst season of the year forthe Norwegian currency The Q4 negativity will probably not be front-runned to the same extent as we sawin 2019 when everyone and their mother went long EURNOK into October due to the poor seasonal NOKperformance The NOK ultimately ended up performing in December which may have put an end to this non-fundamental Q4 weakening story We basically see no fundamental reason behind the year-end slump inNOK outside of Norges Bank halting its FX purchases during the second half of December The NOK is hencemore of wildcard than SEK but it still looks fundamentally cheap
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
Chart 12 NOK usually struggles during Q4 but last years December performance may haveturned the tide
Our running track-record is always attached here
Previous FX weeklies
FX weekly Corona Trump (02 Oct)
FX weekly Grin and Barrett (27 Sep)
FX weekly AIT is maybe not as dovish as we thought (20 Sep)
FX weekly AIT means easier financial conditions (13 Sep)
FX weekly Good luck Powell (23 Aug)
middotFX weekly USD to be put in the Jackson Hole (16 Aug)
middotFX weekly Peoples QE (09 Aug)
middotFX weekly USD will remain the No1 reserve currency (02 Aug)
middotFX weekly Kanye vs Trump vs Biden (05 Jul)
middotFX weekly Europe vs US 1-0 (28 Jun)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
middotFX weekly Should we fear a second lock-down (21 Jun)
middotFX weekly USD liquidity is not going to be as ample (14 Jun)
middotFX weekly EURphoria and panic-YCC (07 Jun)
middotFX weekly An EU solution to a EUR problem (31 May)
middotFX weekly Time to buy a EUR lottery ticket (24 May)
middotFX weekly The trade deal was always born to die (17 May)
middotFX weekly How to trade NIRP coming to America (10 May)
middotFX weekly The rise of the Virolocracy (03 May)
middotFX weekly The EUR-tyranny of the minority (27 Apr)
middotFX weekly How to glue together the EUR-ship again (20 Apr)
middotFX weekly The flipside of Oprahnomics(13 Apr)
middotFX weekly USD needs to weaken or else Plaza Accord 20 is likely (06 Apr)
middotFX weekly Spraying the world with money instead of with disinfectant (29 Mar)
middotFX weekly There will be a crisis and new instruments will be created (22 Mar)
middotFX weekly Sweden and UK are the odd ones out (15 Mar)
middotFX weekly A big bucket of bummerballs (08 Mar)
middotFX weekly A preppers guide to trading Corona (01 Mar)
middotFX weekly Get ready for YCC (23 Feb)
middotFX weekly Mini Mike and the Mechanics (16 Feb)
middotFX weekly Feds balance sheet may need to grow more (09 Feb)
middotFX weekly Did the Virus originate in Norway (02 Feb)
middotFX weekly Mnuchin to trick Fed into more POMO (26 Jan)
middotFX weekly A green bubble to save the world (19 Jan)
middotFX weekly Bad news for NIRP-haters (12 Jan)
middotFX weekly Coupon-bearing securities smell of QE4 (05 Jan)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
middotFX weekly The Riksbank is not a leading indicator of the ECB (22 Dec)
middotFX weekly Merry Christmas from the POTUS (15 Dec)
middotFX weekly Why this is not 20152016 all over again (08 Dec)
middotFX weekly Waiting for Godot (01 Dec)
middotFX weekly Get ready for Climate QE 2 (24 Nov)
middotFX weekly FX space yet to corroborate the reflationistas (17 Nov)
middotFX weekly Dont extrapolate the 60 Bs (10 Nov)
middotFX weekly 99 problems but the NOK aint one (3 Nov)
middotFX weekly Something big just happened (27 Oct)
middotFX weekly The QE train to nowhere (20 Oct)
middotFX weekly The 50 Brsquos caused the downturn so what about the 60 Brsquos (13 Oct)
middotFX weekly Is everything falling apart (6 Oct)
middotFX weekly A new path for USD liquidity (29 Sep)
middotFX weekly Soft QE in October (22 Sep)
middotFX weekly Welcome to the birthday party (15 Sep)
middotFX weekly An early santa rally (08 Sep)
middotFX weekly Can you smell the Sushi yet (01 Sep)
middotFX weekly Mo taris mo cuts but whorsquos Sho Nu (25 Aug)
middotFX weekly First havens then sell confetti (18 Aug)
middotFX weekly The liquidity doom loop (11 Aug)
middotFX weekly Buy Treasuries Short Scandis Wear Diamonds (04 Aug)
middotFX weekly Lagarde better practice her Rhine dancing (28 Jul)
middotFX weekly Go big or go home (21 Jul)
middotFX weekly The liquidity plot thickens (14 Jul)
middotFX weekly e-scooters are silly (07Jul)
middotFX weekly One is exausted the other is nuts(30 Jun)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
middotFX weekly Time to bring in Steven Seagal 2 (23 Jun)
middotFX weekly Get ready for climate QE (16 Jun)
middotFX weekly Cut cut cut cut (09 Jun)
middotFX weekly The absolute madman (02 Jun)
middotFX weekly Will Xi be Nikithared (26 May)
middotFX weekly Trade war ping pong (19 May)
middotFX weekly A stairway to heaven for Krona shorts (12 May)
middotFX weekly Mnuchin to bail-out Fed (05 May)
middotFX weekly 3 reasons why the USD has been resurgent (28 Apr)
middotFX weekly No doomsday (yet) (21 Apr)
middotFX weekly In EUR we trust (14 Apr)
middotFX weekly Crouching Tiger Hidden Inflation Dragon (07 Apr)
middotFX weekly There is a smell of 2016 in the air (31 Mar)
middotFX weekly Dear Mr Powell (24 Mar)
middotFX weekly The devils advocate (17 Mar)
middotFX weekly Mario Bla-blaghi (10 Mar)
middotFX weekly Chinese reflation (3 Mar)
middotFX weekly QT cannot run forever (24 Feb)
middotFX weekly The USD is now in Trumps hands (17 Feb)
middotFX weekly Time to care about Euro area politics again (10 Feb)
middotFX weekly Is Powell turning into a MAGA-man (03 Feb)
middotFX weekly On climate angst and fake news (27 Jan)
middotFX weekly The Mnuchin bailout (20 Jan)
middotFX weekly FX weekly Cause Im a flip-flopper yes I am (13 Jan)
middotFX weekly FX weekly Treasury vs Fed (06 Jan)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
middotFX weekly Top 4 FXMM trades for Q1-2019 (01 Jan)
middotFX weekly On liquidity witches and warlocks (23 Dec)
middotFX weekly Qui Navance pas recule (16 Dec)
middotFX weekly Burnin down the house (9 Dec)
middotFX weekly In Gut we Trust (2 Dec)
middotFX weekly Pikachu aint no hobbit (25 Nov)
middotFX weekly Powell pondering pausing (18 Nov)
middotFX weekly Another SOMA-test of 113 (11 Nov)
middotFX weekly 113 will hold unless the Republicans keep both chambers (04 Nov)
middotFX weekly HIA SOMA and REBA-days (28 Oct)
middotFX weekly The debt ceiling is a USD ceiling (21 Oct)
middotFX weekly Volatility makes odd bedfellows (14 Oct)
middotFX weekly No Di-Maionnaise for your EURs (yet) (7 Oct)
middotFX weekly Along came year-end (30 Sep)
middotFX weekly Twin deficit scare 2 (23 Sep)
middotFX weekly The Pope of Nope has spoken (16 Sep)
middotFX weekly Who wants to impeach a +60 ISM president (09 Sep)
middotFX weekly It is time to go long Scandis again (02 Sep)
middotFX weekly The Conte-Trump alliance (26 Aug)
middotFX weekly Fat-burning shorts (19 Aug)
middotFX weekly Time to call in Steven Seagal(12 Aug)
middotFX weekly Is the cyclical momentum over-priced (05 Aug)
middotFX weekly How to trade a cease-fire (29 Jul)
middotFX weekly Whats that curve (22 Jul)
middotFX weekly The China Factor (15 Jul)
middotFX weekly Take a short trade war breather (08 Jul)
middotFX weekly Trump will never 238 (01 Jul)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
middotFX weekly The USD is the best carry currency in the world (24 Jun)
middotFX weekly Dollar to provide headwinds for earning estimates (17 Jun)
middotFX weekly Fire and fury risks for the USD (10 Jun)
middotFX weekly Its not only Italy (03 Jun)
middotFX weekly The Sumo SOMA days (27 May)
middotFX weekly EM wont be sprinting if the Fed is unprinting (20 May)
middotFX weekly The two final nails in the dovish FOMC-con (13 May)
middotFX weekly Is there anything left in the USD bull-run (06 May)
middotFX weekly Dragon Energy (29 Apr)
middotFX weekly Relative curvature is the new king of FX (22 Apr)
middotFX weekly Why is EURUSD not trading lower (15 Apr)
middotFX weekly Like watching paint dry they said (08 Apr)
middotFX weekly The list of potential USD-positives is getting longer (01 Apr)
middotFX weekly 2 reasons why EURUSD has decoupled from rates spreads (25 Mar)
middotFX weekly Time to buy a USD lottery ticket (18 Mar)
middotFX weekly Taxation mirror on the wall who is the fairest of them all (11 Mar)
middotFX weekly Trumps game of chicken (04 Mar)
middotFX weekly Will the market neglect the clutch of canaries (25 Feb)
middotFX weekly Is the correlation break-down driven by FX hedges (18 Feb)
middotFX weekly The liquidity tide is ebbing (11 Feb)
middotFX weekly Hawkish spectacles (04 Feb)
middotFX weekly Who will stop EURUSD from moving higher (28 Jan)
middotFX weekly Did the Democrats dent the Dollar (21 Jan)
middotFX weekly Is 125 the new 120 (14 Jan)
middotFX weekly The euphoria rises (07 Jan)
middotFX weekly Paging Dr Pangloss (01 Jan)
middotFX weekly The R-star of Bethlehem (24 Dec)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
middotFX weekly A numbers game (17 Dec)
middotFX weekly The year-end liquidty shrink (10 Dec)
middotFX weekly Three reasons why EURUSD isnt trading lower (03 Dec)
middotFX weekly Which currencies to sell if the housing downturn continues (26 Nov)
middotFX weekly The global industrial cycle is set to weaken (19 Nov)
middotFX weekly Is high-yield a canary in the global coal mine (12 Nov)
middotFX weekly Is this the end of the inflation convergence trade in EURUSD (5 Nov)
middotFX weekly Was that it for the EUR bulls (29 Oct)
middotFX weekly Hawks in opposition doves in charge (22 Oct)
middot FX weeklyContinued convergence or re-divergence(15 Oct)
middotFX weekly Thingsdont matter until they do(08 Oct)
middotFX weekly October seasonality is strong (01 Oct)
middotFX weekly ldquoIs 120 the new 115rdquo(24 Sep)
middot FX weekly Honey I shrunk the balance sheet(17 Sep)
middot FX weekly ldquoUSD liquidity will turn scarcer but whenrdquo (10 Sep)
middot FX weekly ldquoStrong currencies and inflationrdquo(3 Sep)
middot FX weekly ldquoUSD in the (Jackson) holerdquo (27 Aug)
middot FX weekly ldquoQ4 is the USD quarterrdquo(20 Aug)
middot FX weekly ldquoIn the year 2525rdquo(13 Aug)
middot FX weekly ldquoEURUSD ceiling or debt ceilingrdquo(6 Aug)
middot FX weeklyldquoElevator up stairs down ldquo(30 Jul)
middot FX weeklyTrump ldquospicesrdquo up EURUSD(23 Jul)
middot FX weeklyFlip-flop(16 Jul)
middot FX weeklyConsolidation time(9 Jul)
middot FX weeklyHawks R Us(2 Jul)
middot FX weeklyAnother lowflation week(25 Jun)
middot FX weeklyNo Fed put(18 Jun)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
middot FX weeklyA bouncy dollar(11 Jun)
middot FX weeklyHeating up(4 Jun)
middot FX weeklySummertime sadness(28 May)
middot FX weeklySpecial counsel lessens Trumpbulence while OPEC looms(21 May)
middot FX weeklyAre China worries old hat(14 May)
middot FX weeklyInflation weekhellip(7 May)
Andreas Steno LarsenChief Global FXFI Strategistandreasstenolarsennordeacom+45 55 46 72 29
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
Chart 9 USDCNY vs deposit reserve ratios in China
The USD will likely remain cheap in ratesbasis terms in to year-end as the potential wave of USDliquidity from the US Treasury General Account paired with USD lending in FX swaps from banks stuckwith capital otherwise ldquoreservedrdquo for stock buy backs will keep USD funding markets afloat Our fair-valueindicator supports the notion that EUBSC (3m FX basis EUR vs USD) should trade towards 0 or even slightlyabove in the final stage of the year which hints that the year-turn could still be priced too expensively in USD(gt2 annualized) If the USD cheapens into year-end it will also come with repercussions for Scandi markets
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
Chart 10 3M EUR vs USD fx basis fair value model based on USD liquidity (assuming anadded 800bn from the US Treasury)
Scandi markets Year-end trades to make Buy SEK pay front-end SEK rates
Anders Tegnells fanbase is increasing worldwide the USD is cheapening over year-turn there is a limitedshort-term scope for a dovish repricing of the Riksbank while we could see a potential risk rally after theUS election The list of positive SEK arguments is growing STIBOR 3m has been compressed during thefirst week of October due to the year-turn pricing and the reverse relationship to the price of USDs (moreexpensive USDs lower Stibor) The SEK could be a winner into the latter part of the year also if STIBOR startsto rebound alongside a cheapening of the USD year-turn The 3M fixing bottomed out 20th of November in2017 19th of October in 2018 and 11th of October in 2019 and the Dec contract is still pricing below thecurrent fixing for this year It might be time to pay and go long SEK
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
Chart 11 Our proxy StiborOIS model hints at upside potential into year-end
The NOK is more of a dark horse into year-end since we are approaching the worst season of the year forthe Norwegian currency The Q4 negativity will probably not be front-runned to the same extent as we sawin 2019 when everyone and their mother went long EURNOK into October due to the poor seasonal NOKperformance The NOK ultimately ended up performing in December which may have put an end to this non-fundamental Q4 weakening story We basically see no fundamental reason behind the year-end slump inNOK outside of Norges Bank halting its FX purchases during the second half of December The NOK is hencemore of wildcard than SEK but it still looks fundamentally cheap
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
Chart 12 NOK usually struggles during Q4 but last years December performance may haveturned the tide
Our running track-record is always attached here
Previous FX weeklies
FX weekly Corona Trump (02 Oct)
FX weekly Grin and Barrett (27 Sep)
FX weekly AIT is maybe not as dovish as we thought (20 Sep)
FX weekly AIT means easier financial conditions (13 Sep)
FX weekly Good luck Powell (23 Aug)
middotFX weekly USD to be put in the Jackson Hole (16 Aug)
middotFX weekly Peoples QE (09 Aug)
middotFX weekly USD will remain the No1 reserve currency (02 Aug)
middotFX weekly Kanye vs Trump vs Biden (05 Jul)
middotFX weekly Europe vs US 1-0 (28 Jun)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
middotFX weekly Should we fear a second lock-down (21 Jun)
middotFX weekly USD liquidity is not going to be as ample (14 Jun)
middotFX weekly EURphoria and panic-YCC (07 Jun)
middotFX weekly An EU solution to a EUR problem (31 May)
middotFX weekly Time to buy a EUR lottery ticket (24 May)
middotFX weekly The trade deal was always born to die (17 May)
middotFX weekly How to trade NIRP coming to America (10 May)
middotFX weekly The rise of the Virolocracy (03 May)
middotFX weekly The EUR-tyranny of the minority (27 Apr)
middotFX weekly How to glue together the EUR-ship again (20 Apr)
middotFX weekly The flipside of Oprahnomics(13 Apr)
middotFX weekly USD needs to weaken or else Plaza Accord 20 is likely (06 Apr)
middotFX weekly Spraying the world with money instead of with disinfectant (29 Mar)
middotFX weekly There will be a crisis and new instruments will be created (22 Mar)
middotFX weekly Sweden and UK are the odd ones out (15 Mar)
middotFX weekly A big bucket of bummerballs (08 Mar)
middotFX weekly A preppers guide to trading Corona (01 Mar)
middotFX weekly Get ready for YCC (23 Feb)
middotFX weekly Mini Mike and the Mechanics (16 Feb)
middotFX weekly Feds balance sheet may need to grow more (09 Feb)
middotFX weekly Did the Virus originate in Norway (02 Feb)
middotFX weekly Mnuchin to trick Fed into more POMO (26 Jan)
middotFX weekly A green bubble to save the world (19 Jan)
middotFX weekly Bad news for NIRP-haters (12 Jan)
middotFX weekly Coupon-bearing securities smell of QE4 (05 Jan)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
middotFX weekly The Riksbank is not a leading indicator of the ECB (22 Dec)
middotFX weekly Merry Christmas from the POTUS (15 Dec)
middotFX weekly Why this is not 20152016 all over again (08 Dec)
middotFX weekly Waiting for Godot (01 Dec)
middotFX weekly Get ready for Climate QE 2 (24 Nov)
middotFX weekly FX space yet to corroborate the reflationistas (17 Nov)
middotFX weekly Dont extrapolate the 60 Bs (10 Nov)
middotFX weekly 99 problems but the NOK aint one (3 Nov)
middotFX weekly Something big just happened (27 Oct)
middotFX weekly The QE train to nowhere (20 Oct)
middotFX weekly The 50 Brsquos caused the downturn so what about the 60 Brsquos (13 Oct)
middotFX weekly Is everything falling apart (6 Oct)
middotFX weekly A new path for USD liquidity (29 Sep)
middotFX weekly Soft QE in October (22 Sep)
middotFX weekly Welcome to the birthday party (15 Sep)
middotFX weekly An early santa rally (08 Sep)
middotFX weekly Can you smell the Sushi yet (01 Sep)
middotFX weekly Mo taris mo cuts but whorsquos Sho Nu (25 Aug)
middotFX weekly First havens then sell confetti (18 Aug)
middotFX weekly The liquidity doom loop (11 Aug)
middotFX weekly Buy Treasuries Short Scandis Wear Diamonds (04 Aug)
middotFX weekly Lagarde better practice her Rhine dancing (28 Jul)
middotFX weekly Go big or go home (21 Jul)
middotFX weekly The liquidity plot thickens (14 Jul)
middotFX weekly e-scooters are silly (07Jul)
middotFX weekly One is exausted the other is nuts(30 Jun)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
middotFX weekly Time to bring in Steven Seagal 2 (23 Jun)
middotFX weekly Get ready for climate QE (16 Jun)
middotFX weekly Cut cut cut cut (09 Jun)
middotFX weekly The absolute madman (02 Jun)
middotFX weekly Will Xi be Nikithared (26 May)
middotFX weekly Trade war ping pong (19 May)
middotFX weekly A stairway to heaven for Krona shorts (12 May)
middotFX weekly Mnuchin to bail-out Fed (05 May)
middotFX weekly 3 reasons why the USD has been resurgent (28 Apr)
middotFX weekly No doomsday (yet) (21 Apr)
middotFX weekly In EUR we trust (14 Apr)
middotFX weekly Crouching Tiger Hidden Inflation Dragon (07 Apr)
middotFX weekly There is a smell of 2016 in the air (31 Mar)
middotFX weekly Dear Mr Powell (24 Mar)
middotFX weekly The devils advocate (17 Mar)
middotFX weekly Mario Bla-blaghi (10 Mar)
middotFX weekly Chinese reflation (3 Mar)
middotFX weekly QT cannot run forever (24 Feb)
middotFX weekly The USD is now in Trumps hands (17 Feb)
middotFX weekly Time to care about Euro area politics again (10 Feb)
middotFX weekly Is Powell turning into a MAGA-man (03 Feb)
middotFX weekly On climate angst and fake news (27 Jan)
middotFX weekly The Mnuchin bailout (20 Jan)
middotFX weekly FX weekly Cause Im a flip-flopper yes I am (13 Jan)
middotFX weekly FX weekly Treasury vs Fed (06 Jan)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
middotFX weekly Top 4 FXMM trades for Q1-2019 (01 Jan)
middotFX weekly On liquidity witches and warlocks (23 Dec)
middotFX weekly Qui Navance pas recule (16 Dec)
middotFX weekly Burnin down the house (9 Dec)
middotFX weekly In Gut we Trust (2 Dec)
middotFX weekly Pikachu aint no hobbit (25 Nov)
middotFX weekly Powell pondering pausing (18 Nov)
middotFX weekly Another SOMA-test of 113 (11 Nov)
middotFX weekly 113 will hold unless the Republicans keep both chambers (04 Nov)
middotFX weekly HIA SOMA and REBA-days (28 Oct)
middotFX weekly The debt ceiling is a USD ceiling (21 Oct)
middotFX weekly Volatility makes odd bedfellows (14 Oct)
middotFX weekly No Di-Maionnaise for your EURs (yet) (7 Oct)
middotFX weekly Along came year-end (30 Sep)
middotFX weekly Twin deficit scare 2 (23 Sep)
middotFX weekly The Pope of Nope has spoken (16 Sep)
middotFX weekly Who wants to impeach a +60 ISM president (09 Sep)
middotFX weekly It is time to go long Scandis again (02 Sep)
middotFX weekly The Conte-Trump alliance (26 Aug)
middotFX weekly Fat-burning shorts (19 Aug)
middotFX weekly Time to call in Steven Seagal(12 Aug)
middotFX weekly Is the cyclical momentum over-priced (05 Aug)
middotFX weekly How to trade a cease-fire (29 Jul)
middotFX weekly Whats that curve (22 Jul)
middotFX weekly The China Factor (15 Jul)
middotFX weekly Take a short trade war breather (08 Jul)
middotFX weekly Trump will never 238 (01 Jul)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
middotFX weekly The USD is the best carry currency in the world (24 Jun)
middotFX weekly Dollar to provide headwinds for earning estimates (17 Jun)
middotFX weekly Fire and fury risks for the USD (10 Jun)
middotFX weekly Its not only Italy (03 Jun)
middotFX weekly The Sumo SOMA days (27 May)
middotFX weekly EM wont be sprinting if the Fed is unprinting (20 May)
middotFX weekly The two final nails in the dovish FOMC-con (13 May)
middotFX weekly Is there anything left in the USD bull-run (06 May)
middotFX weekly Dragon Energy (29 Apr)
middotFX weekly Relative curvature is the new king of FX (22 Apr)
middotFX weekly Why is EURUSD not trading lower (15 Apr)
middotFX weekly Like watching paint dry they said (08 Apr)
middotFX weekly The list of potential USD-positives is getting longer (01 Apr)
middotFX weekly 2 reasons why EURUSD has decoupled from rates spreads (25 Mar)
middotFX weekly Time to buy a USD lottery ticket (18 Mar)
middotFX weekly Taxation mirror on the wall who is the fairest of them all (11 Mar)
middotFX weekly Trumps game of chicken (04 Mar)
middotFX weekly Will the market neglect the clutch of canaries (25 Feb)
middotFX weekly Is the correlation break-down driven by FX hedges (18 Feb)
middotFX weekly The liquidity tide is ebbing (11 Feb)
middotFX weekly Hawkish spectacles (04 Feb)
middotFX weekly Who will stop EURUSD from moving higher (28 Jan)
middotFX weekly Did the Democrats dent the Dollar (21 Jan)
middotFX weekly Is 125 the new 120 (14 Jan)
middotFX weekly The euphoria rises (07 Jan)
middotFX weekly Paging Dr Pangloss (01 Jan)
middotFX weekly The R-star of Bethlehem (24 Dec)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
middotFX weekly A numbers game (17 Dec)
middotFX weekly The year-end liquidty shrink (10 Dec)
middotFX weekly Three reasons why EURUSD isnt trading lower (03 Dec)
middotFX weekly Which currencies to sell if the housing downturn continues (26 Nov)
middotFX weekly The global industrial cycle is set to weaken (19 Nov)
middotFX weekly Is high-yield a canary in the global coal mine (12 Nov)
middotFX weekly Is this the end of the inflation convergence trade in EURUSD (5 Nov)
middotFX weekly Was that it for the EUR bulls (29 Oct)
middotFX weekly Hawks in opposition doves in charge (22 Oct)
middot FX weeklyContinued convergence or re-divergence(15 Oct)
middotFX weekly Thingsdont matter until they do(08 Oct)
middotFX weekly October seasonality is strong (01 Oct)
middotFX weekly ldquoIs 120 the new 115rdquo(24 Sep)
middot FX weekly Honey I shrunk the balance sheet(17 Sep)
middot FX weekly ldquoUSD liquidity will turn scarcer but whenrdquo (10 Sep)
middot FX weekly ldquoStrong currencies and inflationrdquo(3 Sep)
middot FX weekly ldquoUSD in the (Jackson) holerdquo (27 Aug)
middot FX weekly ldquoQ4 is the USD quarterrdquo(20 Aug)
middot FX weekly ldquoIn the year 2525rdquo(13 Aug)
middot FX weekly ldquoEURUSD ceiling or debt ceilingrdquo(6 Aug)
middot FX weeklyldquoElevator up stairs down ldquo(30 Jul)
middot FX weeklyTrump ldquospicesrdquo up EURUSD(23 Jul)
middot FX weeklyFlip-flop(16 Jul)
middot FX weeklyConsolidation time(9 Jul)
middot FX weeklyHawks R Us(2 Jul)
middot FX weeklyAnother lowflation week(25 Jun)
middot FX weeklyNo Fed put(18 Jun)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
middot FX weeklyA bouncy dollar(11 Jun)
middot FX weeklyHeating up(4 Jun)
middot FX weeklySummertime sadness(28 May)
middot FX weeklySpecial counsel lessens Trumpbulence while OPEC looms(21 May)
middot FX weeklyAre China worries old hat(14 May)
middot FX weeklyInflation weekhellip(7 May)
Andreas Steno LarsenChief Global FXFI Strategistandreasstenolarsennordeacom+45 55 46 72 29
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
Chart 10 3M EUR vs USD fx basis fair value model based on USD liquidity (assuming anadded 800bn from the US Treasury)
Scandi markets Year-end trades to make Buy SEK pay front-end SEK rates
Anders Tegnells fanbase is increasing worldwide the USD is cheapening over year-turn there is a limitedshort-term scope for a dovish repricing of the Riksbank while we could see a potential risk rally after theUS election The list of positive SEK arguments is growing STIBOR 3m has been compressed during thefirst week of October due to the year-turn pricing and the reverse relationship to the price of USDs (moreexpensive USDs lower Stibor) The SEK could be a winner into the latter part of the year also if STIBOR startsto rebound alongside a cheapening of the USD year-turn The 3M fixing bottomed out 20th of November in2017 19th of October in 2018 and 11th of October in 2019 and the Dec contract is still pricing below thecurrent fixing for this year It might be time to pay and go long SEK
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
Chart 11 Our proxy StiborOIS model hints at upside potential into year-end
The NOK is more of a dark horse into year-end since we are approaching the worst season of the year forthe Norwegian currency The Q4 negativity will probably not be front-runned to the same extent as we sawin 2019 when everyone and their mother went long EURNOK into October due to the poor seasonal NOKperformance The NOK ultimately ended up performing in December which may have put an end to this non-fundamental Q4 weakening story We basically see no fundamental reason behind the year-end slump inNOK outside of Norges Bank halting its FX purchases during the second half of December The NOK is hencemore of wildcard than SEK but it still looks fundamentally cheap
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
Chart 12 NOK usually struggles during Q4 but last years December performance may haveturned the tide
Our running track-record is always attached here
Previous FX weeklies
FX weekly Corona Trump (02 Oct)
FX weekly Grin and Barrett (27 Sep)
FX weekly AIT is maybe not as dovish as we thought (20 Sep)
FX weekly AIT means easier financial conditions (13 Sep)
FX weekly Good luck Powell (23 Aug)
middotFX weekly USD to be put in the Jackson Hole (16 Aug)
middotFX weekly Peoples QE (09 Aug)
middotFX weekly USD will remain the No1 reserve currency (02 Aug)
middotFX weekly Kanye vs Trump vs Biden (05 Jul)
middotFX weekly Europe vs US 1-0 (28 Jun)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
middotFX weekly Should we fear a second lock-down (21 Jun)
middotFX weekly USD liquidity is not going to be as ample (14 Jun)
middotFX weekly EURphoria and panic-YCC (07 Jun)
middotFX weekly An EU solution to a EUR problem (31 May)
middotFX weekly Time to buy a EUR lottery ticket (24 May)
middotFX weekly The trade deal was always born to die (17 May)
middotFX weekly How to trade NIRP coming to America (10 May)
middotFX weekly The rise of the Virolocracy (03 May)
middotFX weekly The EUR-tyranny of the minority (27 Apr)
middotFX weekly How to glue together the EUR-ship again (20 Apr)
middotFX weekly The flipside of Oprahnomics(13 Apr)
middotFX weekly USD needs to weaken or else Plaza Accord 20 is likely (06 Apr)
middotFX weekly Spraying the world with money instead of with disinfectant (29 Mar)
middotFX weekly There will be a crisis and new instruments will be created (22 Mar)
middotFX weekly Sweden and UK are the odd ones out (15 Mar)
middotFX weekly A big bucket of bummerballs (08 Mar)
middotFX weekly A preppers guide to trading Corona (01 Mar)
middotFX weekly Get ready for YCC (23 Feb)
middotFX weekly Mini Mike and the Mechanics (16 Feb)
middotFX weekly Feds balance sheet may need to grow more (09 Feb)
middotFX weekly Did the Virus originate in Norway (02 Feb)
middotFX weekly Mnuchin to trick Fed into more POMO (26 Jan)
middotFX weekly A green bubble to save the world (19 Jan)
middotFX weekly Bad news for NIRP-haters (12 Jan)
middotFX weekly Coupon-bearing securities smell of QE4 (05 Jan)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
middotFX weekly The Riksbank is not a leading indicator of the ECB (22 Dec)
middotFX weekly Merry Christmas from the POTUS (15 Dec)
middotFX weekly Why this is not 20152016 all over again (08 Dec)
middotFX weekly Waiting for Godot (01 Dec)
middotFX weekly Get ready for Climate QE 2 (24 Nov)
middotFX weekly FX space yet to corroborate the reflationistas (17 Nov)
middotFX weekly Dont extrapolate the 60 Bs (10 Nov)
middotFX weekly 99 problems but the NOK aint one (3 Nov)
middotFX weekly Something big just happened (27 Oct)
middotFX weekly The QE train to nowhere (20 Oct)
middotFX weekly The 50 Brsquos caused the downturn so what about the 60 Brsquos (13 Oct)
middotFX weekly Is everything falling apart (6 Oct)
middotFX weekly A new path for USD liquidity (29 Sep)
middotFX weekly Soft QE in October (22 Sep)
middotFX weekly Welcome to the birthday party (15 Sep)
middotFX weekly An early santa rally (08 Sep)
middotFX weekly Can you smell the Sushi yet (01 Sep)
middotFX weekly Mo taris mo cuts but whorsquos Sho Nu (25 Aug)
middotFX weekly First havens then sell confetti (18 Aug)
middotFX weekly The liquidity doom loop (11 Aug)
middotFX weekly Buy Treasuries Short Scandis Wear Diamonds (04 Aug)
middotFX weekly Lagarde better practice her Rhine dancing (28 Jul)
middotFX weekly Go big or go home (21 Jul)
middotFX weekly The liquidity plot thickens (14 Jul)
middotFX weekly e-scooters are silly (07Jul)
middotFX weekly One is exausted the other is nuts(30 Jun)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
middotFX weekly Time to bring in Steven Seagal 2 (23 Jun)
middotFX weekly Get ready for climate QE (16 Jun)
middotFX weekly Cut cut cut cut (09 Jun)
middotFX weekly The absolute madman (02 Jun)
middotFX weekly Will Xi be Nikithared (26 May)
middotFX weekly Trade war ping pong (19 May)
middotFX weekly A stairway to heaven for Krona shorts (12 May)
middotFX weekly Mnuchin to bail-out Fed (05 May)
middotFX weekly 3 reasons why the USD has been resurgent (28 Apr)
middotFX weekly No doomsday (yet) (21 Apr)
middotFX weekly In EUR we trust (14 Apr)
middotFX weekly Crouching Tiger Hidden Inflation Dragon (07 Apr)
middotFX weekly There is a smell of 2016 in the air (31 Mar)
middotFX weekly Dear Mr Powell (24 Mar)
middotFX weekly The devils advocate (17 Mar)
middotFX weekly Mario Bla-blaghi (10 Mar)
middotFX weekly Chinese reflation (3 Mar)
middotFX weekly QT cannot run forever (24 Feb)
middotFX weekly The USD is now in Trumps hands (17 Feb)
middotFX weekly Time to care about Euro area politics again (10 Feb)
middotFX weekly Is Powell turning into a MAGA-man (03 Feb)
middotFX weekly On climate angst and fake news (27 Jan)
middotFX weekly The Mnuchin bailout (20 Jan)
middotFX weekly FX weekly Cause Im a flip-flopper yes I am (13 Jan)
middotFX weekly FX weekly Treasury vs Fed (06 Jan)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
middotFX weekly Top 4 FXMM trades for Q1-2019 (01 Jan)
middotFX weekly On liquidity witches and warlocks (23 Dec)
middotFX weekly Qui Navance pas recule (16 Dec)
middotFX weekly Burnin down the house (9 Dec)
middotFX weekly In Gut we Trust (2 Dec)
middotFX weekly Pikachu aint no hobbit (25 Nov)
middotFX weekly Powell pondering pausing (18 Nov)
middotFX weekly Another SOMA-test of 113 (11 Nov)
middotFX weekly 113 will hold unless the Republicans keep both chambers (04 Nov)
middotFX weekly HIA SOMA and REBA-days (28 Oct)
middotFX weekly The debt ceiling is a USD ceiling (21 Oct)
middotFX weekly Volatility makes odd bedfellows (14 Oct)
middotFX weekly No Di-Maionnaise for your EURs (yet) (7 Oct)
middotFX weekly Along came year-end (30 Sep)
middotFX weekly Twin deficit scare 2 (23 Sep)
middotFX weekly The Pope of Nope has spoken (16 Sep)
middotFX weekly Who wants to impeach a +60 ISM president (09 Sep)
middotFX weekly It is time to go long Scandis again (02 Sep)
middotFX weekly The Conte-Trump alliance (26 Aug)
middotFX weekly Fat-burning shorts (19 Aug)
middotFX weekly Time to call in Steven Seagal(12 Aug)
middotFX weekly Is the cyclical momentum over-priced (05 Aug)
middotFX weekly How to trade a cease-fire (29 Jul)
middotFX weekly Whats that curve (22 Jul)
middotFX weekly The China Factor (15 Jul)
middotFX weekly Take a short trade war breather (08 Jul)
middotFX weekly Trump will never 238 (01 Jul)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
middotFX weekly The USD is the best carry currency in the world (24 Jun)
middotFX weekly Dollar to provide headwinds for earning estimates (17 Jun)
middotFX weekly Fire and fury risks for the USD (10 Jun)
middotFX weekly Its not only Italy (03 Jun)
middotFX weekly The Sumo SOMA days (27 May)
middotFX weekly EM wont be sprinting if the Fed is unprinting (20 May)
middotFX weekly The two final nails in the dovish FOMC-con (13 May)
middotFX weekly Is there anything left in the USD bull-run (06 May)
middotFX weekly Dragon Energy (29 Apr)
middotFX weekly Relative curvature is the new king of FX (22 Apr)
middotFX weekly Why is EURUSD not trading lower (15 Apr)
middotFX weekly Like watching paint dry they said (08 Apr)
middotFX weekly The list of potential USD-positives is getting longer (01 Apr)
middotFX weekly 2 reasons why EURUSD has decoupled from rates spreads (25 Mar)
middotFX weekly Time to buy a USD lottery ticket (18 Mar)
middotFX weekly Taxation mirror on the wall who is the fairest of them all (11 Mar)
middotFX weekly Trumps game of chicken (04 Mar)
middotFX weekly Will the market neglect the clutch of canaries (25 Feb)
middotFX weekly Is the correlation break-down driven by FX hedges (18 Feb)
middotFX weekly The liquidity tide is ebbing (11 Feb)
middotFX weekly Hawkish spectacles (04 Feb)
middotFX weekly Who will stop EURUSD from moving higher (28 Jan)
middotFX weekly Did the Democrats dent the Dollar (21 Jan)
middotFX weekly Is 125 the new 120 (14 Jan)
middotFX weekly The euphoria rises (07 Jan)
middotFX weekly Paging Dr Pangloss (01 Jan)
middotFX weekly The R-star of Bethlehem (24 Dec)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
middotFX weekly A numbers game (17 Dec)
middotFX weekly The year-end liquidty shrink (10 Dec)
middotFX weekly Three reasons why EURUSD isnt trading lower (03 Dec)
middotFX weekly Which currencies to sell if the housing downturn continues (26 Nov)
middotFX weekly The global industrial cycle is set to weaken (19 Nov)
middotFX weekly Is high-yield a canary in the global coal mine (12 Nov)
middotFX weekly Is this the end of the inflation convergence trade in EURUSD (5 Nov)
middotFX weekly Was that it for the EUR bulls (29 Oct)
middotFX weekly Hawks in opposition doves in charge (22 Oct)
middot FX weeklyContinued convergence or re-divergence(15 Oct)
middotFX weekly Thingsdont matter until they do(08 Oct)
middotFX weekly October seasonality is strong (01 Oct)
middotFX weekly ldquoIs 120 the new 115rdquo(24 Sep)
middot FX weekly Honey I shrunk the balance sheet(17 Sep)
middot FX weekly ldquoUSD liquidity will turn scarcer but whenrdquo (10 Sep)
middot FX weekly ldquoStrong currencies and inflationrdquo(3 Sep)
middot FX weekly ldquoUSD in the (Jackson) holerdquo (27 Aug)
middot FX weekly ldquoQ4 is the USD quarterrdquo(20 Aug)
middot FX weekly ldquoIn the year 2525rdquo(13 Aug)
middot FX weekly ldquoEURUSD ceiling or debt ceilingrdquo(6 Aug)
middot FX weeklyldquoElevator up stairs down ldquo(30 Jul)
middot FX weeklyTrump ldquospicesrdquo up EURUSD(23 Jul)
middot FX weeklyFlip-flop(16 Jul)
middot FX weeklyConsolidation time(9 Jul)
middot FX weeklyHawks R Us(2 Jul)
middot FX weeklyAnother lowflation week(25 Jun)
middot FX weeklyNo Fed put(18 Jun)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
middot FX weeklyA bouncy dollar(11 Jun)
middot FX weeklyHeating up(4 Jun)
middot FX weeklySummertime sadness(28 May)
middot FX weeklySpecial counsel lessens Trumpbulence while OPEC looms(21 May)
middot FX weeklyAre China worries old hat(14 May)
middot FX weeklyInflation weekhellip(7 May)
Andreas Steno LarsenChief Global FXFI Strategistandreasstenolarsennordeacom+45 55 46 72 29
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
Chart 11 Our proxy StiborOIS model hints at upside potential into year-end
The NOK is more of a dark horse into year-end since we are approaching the worst season of the year forthe Norwegian currency The Q4 negativity will probably not be front-runned to the same extent as we sawin 2019 when everyone and their mother went long EURNOK into October due to the poor seasonal NOKperformance The NOK ultimately ended up performing in December which may have put an end to this non-fundamental Q4 weakening story We basically see no fundamental reason behind the year-end slump inNOK outside of Norges Bank halting its FX purchases during the second half of December The NOK is hencemore of wildcard than SEK but it still looks fundamentally cheap
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
Chart 12 NOK usually struggles during Q4 but last years December performance may haveturned the tide
Our running track-record is always attached here
Previous FX weeklies
FX weekly Corona Trump (02 Oct)
FX weekly Grin and Barrett (27 Sep)
FX weekly AIT is maybe not as dovish as we thought (20 Sep)
FX weekly AIT means easier financial conditions (13 Sep)
FX weekly Good luck Powell (23 Aug)
middotFX weekly USD to be put in the Jackson Hole (16 Aug)
middotFX weekly Peoples QE (09 Aug)
middotFX weekly USD will remain the No1 reserve currency (02 Aug)
middotFX weekly Kanye vs Trump vs Biden (05 Jul)
middotFX weekly Europe vs US 1-0 (28 Jun)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
middotFX weekly Should we fear a second lock-down (21 Jun)
middotFX weekly USD liquidity is not going to be as ample (14 Jun)
middotFX weekly EURphoria and panic-YCC (07 Jun)
middotFX weekly An EU solution to a EUR problem (31 May)
middotFX weekly Time to buy a EUR lottery ticket (24 May)
middotFX weekly The trade deal was always born to die (17 May)
middotFX weekly How to trade NIRP coming to America (10 May)
middotFX weekly The rise of the Virolocracy (03 May)
middotFX weekly The EUR-tyranny of the minority (27 Apr)
middotFX weekly How to glue together the EUR-ship again (20 Apr)
middotFX weekly The flipside of Oprahnomics(13 Apr)
middotFX weekly USD needs to weaken or else Plaza Accord 20 is likely (06 Apr)
middotFX weekly Spraying the world with money instead of with disinfectant (29 Mar)
middotFX weekly There will be a crisis and new instruments will be created (22 Mar)
middotFX weekly Sweden and UK are the odd ones out (15 Mar)
middotFX weekly A big bucket of bummerballs (08 Mar)
middotFX weekly A preppers guide to trading Corona (01 Mar)
middotFX weekly Get ready for YCC (23 Feb)
middotFX weekly Mini Mike and the Mechanics (16 Feb)
middotFX weekly Feds balance sheet may need to grow more (09 Feb)
middotFX weekly Did the Virus originate in Norway (02 Feb)
middotFX weekly Mnuchin to trick Fed into more POMO (26 Jan)
middotFX weekly A green bubble to save the world (19 Jan)
middotFX weekly Bad news for NIRP-haters (12 Jan)
middotFX weekly Coupon-bearing securities smell of QE4 (05 Jan)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
middotFX weekly The Riksbank is not a leading indicator of the ECB (22 Dec)
middotFX weekly Merry Christmas from the POTUS (15 Dec)
middotFX weekly Why this is not 20152016 all over again (08 Dec)
middotFX weekly Waiting for Godot (01 Dec)
middotFX weekly Get ready for Climate QE 2 (24 Nov)
middotFX weekly FX space yet to corroborate the reflationistas (17 Nov)
middotFX weekly Dont extrapolate the 60 Bs (10 Nov)
middotFX weekly 99 problems but the NOK aint one (3 Nov)
middotFX weekly Something big just happened (27 Oct)
middotFX weekly The QE train to nowhere (20 Oct)
middotFX weekly The 50 Brsquos caused the downturn so what about the 60 Brsquos (13 Oct)
middotFX weekly Is everything falling apart (6 Oct)
middotFX weekly A new path for USD liquidity (29 Sep)
middotFX weekly Soft QE in October (22 Sep)
middotFX weekly Welcome to the birthday party (15 Sep)
middotFX weekly An early santa rally (08 Sep)
middotFX weekly Can you smell the Sushi yet (01 Sep)
middotFX weekly Mo taris mo cuts but whorsquos Sho Nu (25 Aug)
middotFX weekly First havens then sell confetti (18 Aug)
middotFX weekly The liquidity doom loop (11 Aug)
middotFX weekly Buy Treasuries Short Scandis Wear Diamonds (04 Aug)
middotFX weekly Lagarde better practice her Rhine dancing (28 Jul)
middotFX weekly Go big or go home (21 Jul)
middotFX weekly The liquidity plot thickens (14 Jul)
middotFX weekly e-scooters are silly (07Jul)
middotFX weekly One is exausted the other is nuts(30 Jun)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
middotFX weekly Time to bring in Steven Seagal 2 (23 Jun)
middotFX weekly Get ready for climate QE (16 Jun)
middotFX weekly Cut cut cut cut (09 Jun)
middotFX weekly The absolute madman (02 Jun)
middotFX weekly Will Xi be Nikithared (26 May)
middotFX weekly Trade war ping pong (19 May)
middotFX weekly A stairway to heaven for Krona shorts (12 May)
middotFX weekly Mnuchin to bail-out Fed (05 May)
middotFX weekly 3 reasons why the USD has been resurgent (28 Apr)
middotFX weekly No doomsday (yet) (21 Apr)
middotFX weekly In EUR we trust (14 Apr)
middotFX weekly Crouching Tiger Hidden Inflation Dragon (07 Apr)
middotFX weekly There is a smell of 2016 in the air (31 Mar)
middotFX weekly Dear Mr Powell (24 Mar)
middotFX weekly The devils advocate (17 Mar)
middotFX weekly Mario Bla-blaghi (10 Mar)
middotFX weekly Chinese reflation (3 Mar)
middotFX weekly QT cannot run forever (24 Feb)
middotFX weekly The USD is now in Trumps hands (17 Feb)
middotFX weekly Time to care about Euro area politics again (10 Feb)
middotFX weekly Is Powell turning into a MAGA-man (03 Feb)
middotFX weekly On climate angst and fake news (27 Jan)
middotFX weekly The Mnuchin bailout (20 Jan)
middotFX weekly FX weekly Cause Im a flip-flopper yes I am (13 Jan)
middotFX weekly FX weekly Treasury vs Fed (06 Jan)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
middotFX weekly Top 4 FXMM trades for Q1-2019 (01 Jan)
middotFX weekly On liquidity witches and warlocks (23 Dec)
middotFX weekly Qui Navance pas recule (16 Dec)
middotFX weekly Burnin down the house (9 Dec)
middotFX weekly In Gut we Trust (2 Dec)
middotFX weekly Pikachu aint no hobbit (25 Nov)
middotFX weekly Powell pondering pausing (18 Nov)
middotFX weekly Another SOMA-test of 113 (11 Nov)
middotFX weekly 113 will hold unless the Republicans keep both chambers (04 Nov)
middotFX weekly HIA SOMA and REBA-days (28 Oct)
middotFX weekly The debt ceiling is a USD ceiling (21 Oct)
middotFX weekly Volatility makes odd bedfellows (14 Oct)
middotFX weekly No Di-Maionnaise for your EURs (yet) (7 Oct)
middotFX weekly Along came year-end (30 Sep)
middotFX weekly Twin deficit scare 2 (23 Sep)
middotFX weekly The Pope of Nope has spoken (16 Sep)
middotFX weekly Who wants to impeach a +60 ISM president (09 Sep)
middotFX weekly It is time to go long Scandis again (02 Sep)
middotFX weekly The Conte-Trump alliance (26 Aug)
middotFX weekly Fat-burning shorts (19 Aug)
middotFX weekly Time to call in Steven Seagal(12 Aug)
middotFX weekly Is the cyclical momentum over-priced (05 Aug)
middotFX weekly How to trade a cease-fire (29 Jul)
middotFX weekly Whats that curve (22 Jul)
middotFX weekly The China Factor (15 Jul)
middotFX weekly Take a short trade war breather (08 Jul)
middotFX weekly Trump will never 238 (01 Jul)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
middotFX weekly The USD is the best carry currency in the world (24 Jun)
middotFX weekly Dollar to provide headwinds for earning estimates (17 Jun)
middotFX weekly Fire and fury risks for the USD (10 Jun)
middotFX weekly Its not only Italy (03 Jun)
middotFX weekly The Sumo SOMA days (27 May)
middotFX weekly EM wont be sprinting if the Fed is unprinting (20 May)
middotFX weekly The two final nails in the dovish FOMC-con (13 May)
middotFX weekly Is there anything left in the USD bull-run (06 May)
middotFX weekly Dragon Energy (29 Apr)
middotFX weekly Relative curvature is the new king of FX (22 Apr)
middotFX weekly Why is EURUSD not trading lower (15 Apr)
middotFX weekly Like watching paint dry they said (08 Apr)
middotFX weekly The list of potential USD-positives is getting longer (01 Apr)
middotFX weekly 2 reasons why EURUSD has decoupled from rates spreads (25 Mar)
middotFX weekly Time to buy a USD lottery ticket (18 Mar)
middotFX weekly Taxation mirror on the wall who is the fairest of them all (11 Mar)
middotFX weekly Trumps game of chicken (04 Mar)
middotFX weekly Will the market neglect the clutch of canaries (25 Feb)
middotFX weekly Is the correlation break-down driven by FX hedges (18 Feb)
middotFX weekly The liquidity tide is ebbing (11 Feb)
middotFX weekly Hawkish spectacles (04 Feb)
middotFX weekly Who will stop EURUSD from moving higher (28 Jan)
middotFX weekly Did the Democrats dent the Dollar (21 Jan)
middotFX weekly Is 125 the new 120 (14 Jan)
middotFX weekly The euphoria rises (07 Jan)
middotFX weekly Paging Dr Pangloss (01 Jan)
middotFX weekly The R-star of Bethlehem (24 Dec)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
middotFX weekly A numbers game (17 Dec)
middotFX weekly The year-end liquidty shrink (10 Dec)
middotFX weekly Three reasons why EURUSD isnt trading lower (03 Dec)
middotFX weekly Which currencies to sell if the housing downturn continues (26 Nov)
middotFX weekly The global industrial cycle is set to weaken (19 Nov)
middotFX weekly Is high-yield a canary in the global coal mine (12 Nov)
middotFX weekly Is this the end of the inflation convergence trade in EURUSD (5 Nov)
middotFX weekly Was that it for the EUR bulls (29 Oct)
middotFX weekly Hawks in opposition doves in charge (22 Oct)
middot FX weeklyContinued convergence or re-divergence(15 Oct)
middotFX weekly Thingsdont matter until they do(08 Oct)
middotFX weekly October seasonality is strong (01 Oct)
middotFX weekly ldquoIs 120 the new 115rdquo(24 Sep)
middot FX weekly Honey I shrunk the balance sheet(17 Sep)
middot FX weekly ldquoUSD liquidity will turn scarcer but whenrdquo (10 Sep)
middot FX weekly ldquoStrong currencies and inflationrdquo(3 Sep)
middot FX weekly ldquoUSD in the (Jackson) holerdquo (27 Aug)
middot FX weekly ldquoQ4 is the USD quarterrdquo(20 Aug)
middot FX weekly ldquoIn the year 2525rdquo(13 Aug)
middot FX weekly ldquoEURUSD ceiling or debt ceilingrdquo(6 Aug)
middot FX weeklyldquoElevator up stairs down ldquo(30 Jul)
middot FX weeklyTrump ldquospicesrdquo up EURUSD(23 Jul)
middot FX weeklyFlip-flop(16 Jul)
middot FX weeklyConsolidation time(9 Jul)
middot FX weeklyHawks R Us(2 Jul)
middot FX weeklyAnother lowflation week(25 Jun)
middot FX weeklyNo Fed put(18 Jun)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
middot FX weeklyA bouncy dollar(11 Jun)
middot FX weeklyHeating up(4 Jun)
middot FX weeklySummertime sadness(28 May)
middot FX weeklySpecial counsel lessens Trumpbulence while OPEC looms(21 May)
middot FX weeklyAre China worries old hat(14 May)
middot FX weeklyInflation weekhellip(7 May)
Andreas Steno LarsenChief Global FXFI Strategistandreasstenolarsennordeacom+45 55 46 72 29
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
Chart 12 NOK usually struggles during Q4 but last years December performance may haveturned the tide
Our running track-record is always attached here
Previous FX weeklies
FX weekly Corona Trump (02 Oct)
FX weekly Grin and Barrett (27 Sep)
FX weekly AIT is maybe not as dovish as we thought (20 Sep)
FX weekly AIT means easier financial conditions (13 Sep)
FX weekly Good luck Powell (23 Aug)
middotFX weekly USD to be put in the Jackson Hole (16 Aug)
middotFX weekly Peoples QE (09 Aug)
middotFX weekly USD will remain the No1 reserve currency (02 Aug)
middotFX weekly Kanye vs Trump vs Biden (05 Jul)
middotFX weekly Europe vs US 1-0 (28 Jun)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
middotFX weekly Should we fear a second lock-down (21 Jun)
middotFX weekly USD liquidity is not going to be as ample (14 Jun)
middotFX weekly EURphoria and panic-YCC (07 Jun)
middotFX weekly An EU solution to a EUR problem (31 May)
middotFX weekly Time to buy a EUR lottery ticket (24 May)
middotFX weekly The trade deal was always born to die (17 May)
middotFX weekly How to trade NIRP coming to America (10 May)
middotFX weekly The rise of the Virolocracy (03 May)
middotFX weekly The EUR-tyranny of the minority (27 Apr)
middotFX weekly How to glue together the EUR-ship again (20 Apr)
middotFX weekly The flipside of Oprahnomics(13 Apr)
middotFX weekly USD needs to weaken or else Plaza Accord 20 is likely (06 Apr)
middotFX weekly Spraying the world with money instead of with disinfectant (29 Mar)
middotFX weekly There will be a crisis and new instruments will be created (22 Mar)
middotFX weekly Sweden and UK are the odd ones out (15 Mar)
middotFX weekly A big bucket of bummerballs (08 Mar)
middotFX weekly A preppers guide to trading Corona (01 Mar)
middotFX weekly Get ready for YCC (23 Feb)
middotFX weekly Mini Mike and the Mechanics (16 Feb)
middotFX weekly Feds balance sheet may need to grow more (09 Feb)
middotFX weekly Did the Virus originate in Norway (02 Feb)
middotFX weekly Mnuchin to trick Fed into more POMO (26 Jan)
middotFX weekly A green bubble to save the world (19 Jan)
middotFX weekly Bad news for NIRP-haters (12 Jan)
middotFX weekly Coupon-bearing securities smell of QE4 (05 Jan)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
middotFX weekly The Riksbank is not a leading indicator of the ECB (22 Dec)
middotFX weekly Merry Christmas from the POTUS (15 Dec)
middotFX weekly Why this is not 20152016 all over again (08 Dec)
middotFX weekly Waiting for Godot (01 Dec)
middotFX weekly Get ready for Climate QE 2 (24 Nov)
middotFX weekly FX space yet to corroborate the reflationistas (17 Nov)
middotFX weekly Dont extrapolate the 60 Bs (10 Nov)
middotFX weekly 99 problems but the NOK aint one (3 Nov)
middotFX weekly Something big just happened (27 Oct)
middotFX weekly The QE train to nowhere (20 Oct)
middotFX weekly The 50 Brsquos caused the downturn so what about the 60 Brsquos (13 Oct)
middotFX weekly Is everything falling apart (6 Oct)
middotFX weekly A new path for USD liquidity (29 Sep)
middotFX weekly Soft QE in October (22 Sep)
middotFX weekly Welcome to the birthday party (15 Sep)
middotFX weekly An early santa rally (08 Sep)
middotFX weekly Can you smell the Sushi yet (01 Sep)
middotFX weekly Mo taris mo cuts but whorsquos Sho Nu (25 Aug)
middotFX weekly First havens then sell confetti (18 Aug)
middotFX weekly The liquidity doom loop (11 Aug)
middotFX weekly Buy Treasuries Short Scandis Wear Diamonds (04 Aug)
middotFX weekly Lagarde better practice her Rhine dancing (28 Jul)
middotFX weekly Go big or go home (21 Jul)
middotFX weekly The liquidity plot thickens (14 Jul)
middotFX weekly e-scooters are silly (07Jul)
middotFX weekly One is exausted the other is nuts(30 Jun)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
middotFX weekly Time to bring in Steven Seagal 2 (23 Jun)
middotFX weekly Get ready for climate QE (16 Jun)
middotFX weekly Cut cut cut cut (09 Jun)
middotFX weekly The absolute madman (02 Jun)
middotFX weekly Will Xi be Nikithared (26 May)
middotFX weekly Trade war ping pong (19 May)
middotFX weekly A stairway to heaven for Krona shorts (12 May)
middotFX weekly Mnuchin to bail-out Fed (05 May)
middotFX weekly 3 reasons why the USD has been resurgent (28 Apr)
middotFX weekly No doomsday (yet) (21 Apr)
middotFX weekly In EUR we trust (14 Apr)
middotFX weekly Crouching Tiger Hidden Inflation Dragon (07 Apr)
middotFX weekly There is a smell of 2016 in the air (31 Mar)
middotFX weekly Dear Mr Powell (24 Mar)
middotFX weekly The devils advocate (17 Mar)
middotFX weekly Mario Bla-blaghi (10 Mar)
middotFX weekly Chinese reflation (3 Mar)
middotFX weekly QT cannot run forever (24 Feb)
middotFX weekly The USD is now in Trumps hands (17 Feb)
middotFX weekly Time to care about Euro area politics again (10 Feb)
middotFX weekly Is Powell turning into a MAGA-man (03 Feb)
middotFX weekly On climate angst and fake news (27 Jan)
middotFX weekly The Mnuchin bailout (20 Jan)
middotFX weekly FX weekly Cause Im a flip-flopper yes I am (13 Jan)
middotFX weekly FX weekly Treasury vs Fed (06 Jan)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
middotFX weekly Top 4 FXMM trades for Q1-2019 (01 Jan)
middotFX weekly On liquidity witches and warlocks (23 Dec)
middotFX weekly Qui Navance pas recule (16 Dec)
middotFX weekly Burnin down the house (9 Dec)
middotFX weekly In Gut we Trust (2 Dec)
middotFX weekly Pikachu aint no hobbit (25 Nov)
middotFX weekly Powell pondering pausing (18 Nov)
middotFX weekly Another SOMA-test of 113 (11 Nov)
middotFX weekly 113 will hold unless the Republicans keep both chambers (04 Nov)
middotFX weekly HIA SOMA and REBA-days (28 Oct)
middotFX weekly The debt ceiling is a USD ceiling (21 Oct)
middotFX weekly Volatility makes odd bedfellows (14 Oct)
middotFX weekly No Di-Maionnaise for your EURs (yet) (7 Oct)
middotFX weekly Along came year-end (30 Sep)
middotFX weekly Twin deficit scare 2 (23 Sep)
middotFX weekly The Pope of Nope has spoken (16 Sep)
middotFX weekly Who wants to impeach a +60 ISM president (09 Sep)
middotFX weekly It is time to go long Scandis again (02 Sep)
middotFX weekly The Conte-Trump alliance (26 Aug)
middotFX weekly Fat-burning shorts (19 Aug)
middotFX weekly Time to call in Steven Seagal(12 Aug)
middotFX weekly Is the cyclical momentum over-priced (05 Aug)
middotFX weekly How to trade a cease-fire (29 Jul)
middotFX weekly Whats that curve (22 Jul)
middotFX weekly The China Factor (15 Jul)
middotFX weekly Take a short trade war breather (08 Jul)
middotFX weekly Trump will never 238 (01 Jul)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
middotFX weekly The USD is the best carry currency in the world (24 Jun)
middotFX weekly Dollar to provide headwinds for earning estimates (17 Jun)
middotFX weekly Fire and fury risks for the USD (10 Jun)
middotFX weekly Its not only Italy (03 Jun)
middotFX weekly The Sumo SOMA days (27 May)
middotFX weekly EM wont be sprinting if the Fed is unprinting (20 May)
middotFX weekly The two final nails in the dovish FOMC-con (13 May)
middotFX weekly Is there anything left in the USD bull-run (06 May)
middotFX weekly Dragon Energy (29 Apr)
middotFX weekly Relative curvature is the new king of FX (22 Apr)
middotFX weekly Why is EURUSD not trading lower (15 Apr)
middotFX weekly Like watching paint dry they said (08 Apr)
middotFX weekly The list of potential USD-positives is getting longer (01 Apr)
middotFX weekly 2 reasons why EURUSD has decoupled from rates spreads (25 Mar)
middotFX weekly Time to buy a USD lottery ticket (18 Mar)
middotFX weekly Taxation mirror on the wall who is the fairest of them all (11 Mar)
middotFX weekly Trumps game of chicken (04 Mar)
middotFX weekly Will the market neglect the clutch of canaries (25 Feb)
middotFX weekly Is the correlation break-down driven by FX hedges (18 Feb)
middotFX weekly The liquidity tide is ebbing (11 Feb)
middotFX weekly Hawkish spectacles (04 Feb)
middotFX weekly Who will stop EURUSD from moving higher (28 Jan)
middotFX weekly Did the Democrats dent the Dollar (21 Jan)
middotFX weekly Is 125 the new 120 (14 Jan)
middotFX weekly The euphoria rises (07 Jan)
middotFX weekly Paging Dr Pangloss (01 Jan)
middotFX weekly The R-star of Bethlehem (24 Dec)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
middotFX weekly A numbers game (17 Dec)
middotFX weekly The year-end liquidty shrink (10 Dec)
middotFX weekly Three reasons why EURUSD isnt trading lower (03 Dec)
middotFX weekly Which currencies to sell if the housing downturn continues (26 Nov)
middotFX weekly The global industrial cycle is set to weaken (19 Nov)
middotFX weekly Is high-yield a canary in the global coal mine (12 Nov)
middotFX weekly Is this the end of the inflation convergence trade in EURUSD (5 Nov)
middotFX weekly Was that it for the EUR bulls (29 Oct)
middotFX weekly Hawks in opposition doves in charge (22 Oct)
middot FX weeklyContinued convergence or re-divergence(15 Oct)
middotFX weekly Thingsdont matter until they do(08 Oct)
middotFX weekly October seasonality is strong (01 Oct)
middotFX weekly ldquoIs 120 the new 115rdquo(24 Sep)
middot FX weekly Honey I shrunk the balance sheet(17 Sep)
middot FX weekly ldquoUSD liquidity will turn scarcer but whenrdquo (10 Sep)
middot FX weekly ldquoStrong currencies and inflationrdquo(3 Sep)
middot FX weekly ldquoUSD in the (Jackson) holerdquo (27 Aug)
middot FX weekly ldquoQ4 is the USD quarterrdquo(20 Aug)
middot FX weekly ldquoIn the year 2525rdquo(13 Aug)
middot FX weekly ldquoEURUSD ceiling or debt ceilingrdquo(6 Aug)
middot FX weeklyldquoElevator up stairs down ldquo(30 Jul)
middot FX weeklyTrump ldquospicesrdquo up EURUSD(23 Jul)
middot FX weeklyFlip-flop(16 Jul)
middot FX weeklyConsolidation time(9 Jul)
middot FX weeklyHawks R Us(2 Jul)
middot FX weeklyAnother lowflation week(25 Jun)
middot FX weeklyNo Fed put(18 Jun)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
middot FX weeklyA bouncy dollar(11 Jun)
middot FX weeklyHeating up(4 Jun)
middot FX weeklySummertime sadness(28 May)
middot FX weeklySpecial counsel lessens Trumpbulence while OPEC looms(21 May)
middot FX weeklyAre China worries old hat(14 May)
middot FX weeklyInflation weekhellip(7 May)
Andreas Steno LarsenChief Global FXFI Strategistandreasstenolarsennordeacom+45 55 46 72 29
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
middotFX weekly Should we fear a second lock-down (21 Jun)
middotFX weekly USD liquidity is not going to be as ample (14 Jun)
middotFX weekly EURphoria and panic-YCC (07 Jun)
middotFX weekly An EU solution to a EUR problem (31 May)
middotFX weekly Time to buy a EUR lottery ticket (24 May)
middotFX weekly The trade deal was always born to die (17 May)
middotFX weekly How to trade NIRP coming to America (10 May)
middotFX weekly The rise of the Virolocracy (03 May)
middotFX weekly The EUR-tyranny of the minority (27 Apr)
middotFX weekly How to glue together the EUR-ship again (20 Apr)
middotFX weekly The flipside of Oprahnomics(13 Apr)
middotFX weekly USD needs to weaken or else Plaza Accord 20 is likely (06 Apr)
middotFX weekly Spraying the world with money instead of with disinfectant (29 Mar)
middotFX weekly There will be a crisis and new instruments will be created (22 Mar)
middotFX weekly Sweden and UK are the odd ones out (15 Mar)
middotFX weekly A big bucket of bummerballs (08 Mar)
middotFX weekly A preppers guide to trading Corona (01 Mar)
middotFX weekly Get ready for YCC (23 Feb)
middotFX weekly Mini Mike and the Mechanics (16 Feb)
middotFX weekly Feds balance sheet may need to grow more (09 Feb)
middotFX weekly Did the Virus originate in Norway (02 Feb)
middotFX weekly Mnuchin to trick Fed into more POMO (26 Jan)
middotFX weekly A green bubble to save the world (19 Jan)
middotFX weekly Bad news for NIRP-haters (12 Jan)
middotFX weekly Coupon-bearing securities smell of QE4 (05 Jan)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
middotFX weekly The Riksbank is not a leading indicator of the ECB (22 Dec)
middotFX weekly Merry Christmas from the POTUS (15 Dec)
middotFX weekly Why this is not 20152016 all over again (08 Dec)
middotFX weekly Waiting for Godot (01 Dec)
middotFX weekly Get ready for Climate QE 2 (24 Nov)
middotFX weekly FX space yet to corroborate the reflationistas (17 Nov)
middotFX weekly Dont extrapolate the 60 Bs (10 Nov)
middotFX weekly 99 problems but the NOK aint one (3 Nov)
middotFX weekly Something big just happened (27 Oct)
middotFX weekly The QE train to nowhere (20 Oct)
middotFX weekly The 50 Brsquos caused the downturn so what about the 60 Brsquos (13 Oct)
middotFX weekly Is everything falling apart (6 Oct)
middotFX weekly A new path for USD liquidity (29 Sep)
middotFX weekly Soft QE in October (22 Sep)
middotFX weekly Welcome to the birthday party (15 Sep)
middotFX weekly An early santa rally (08 Sep)
middotFX weekly Can you smell the Sushi yet (01 Sep)
middotFX weekly Mo taris mo cuts but whorsquos Sho Nu (25 Aug)
middotFX weekly First havens then sell confetti (18 Aug)
middotFX weekly The liquidity doom loop (11 Aug)
middotFX weekly Buy Treasuries Short Scandis Wear Diamonds (04 Aug)
middotFX weekly Lagarde better practice her Rhine dancing (28 Jul)
middotFX weekly Go big or go home (21 Jul)
middotFX weekly The liquidity plot thickens (14 Jul)
middotFX weekly e-scooters are silly (07Jul)
middotFX weekly One is exausted the other is nuts(30 Jun)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
middotFX weekly Time to bring in Steven Seagal 2 (23 Jun)
middotFX weekly Get ready for climate QE (16 Jun)
middotFX weekly Cut cut cut cut (09 Jun)
middotFX weekly The absolute madman (02 Jun)
middotFX weekly Will Xi be Nikithared (26 May)
middotFX weekly Trade war ping pong (19 May)
middotFX weekly A stairway to heaven for Krona shorts (12 May)
middotFX weekly Mnuchin to bail-out Fed (05 May)
middotFX weekly 3 reasons why the USD has been resurgent (28 Apr)
middotFX weekly No doomsday (yet) (21 Apr)
middotFX weekly In EUR we trust (14 Apr)
middotFX weekly Crouching Tiger Hidden Inflation Dragon (07 Apr)
middotFX weekly There is a smell of 2016 in the air (31 Mar)
middotFX weekly Dear Mr Powell (24 Mar)
middotFX weekly The devils advocate (17 Mar)
middotFX weekly Mario Bla-blaghi (10 Mar)
middotFX weekly Chinese reflation (3 Mar)
middotFX weekly QT cannot run forever (24 Feb)
middotFX weekly The USD is now in Trumps hands (17 Feb)
middotFX weekly Time to care about Euro area politics again (10 Feb)
middotFX weekly Is Powell turning into a MAGA-man (03 Feb)
middotFX weekly On climate angst and fake news (27 Jan)
middotFX weekly The Mnuchin bailout (20 Jan)
middotFX weekly FX weekly Cause Im a flip-flopper yes I am (13 Jan)
middotFX weekly FX weekly Treasury vs Fed (06 Jan)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
middotFX weekly Top 4 FXMM trades for Q1-2019 (01 Jan)
middotFX weekly On liquidity witches and warlocks (23 Dec)
middotFX weekly Qui Navance pas recule (16 Dec)
middotFX weekly Burnin down the house (9 Dec)
middotFX weekly In Gut we Trust (2 Dec)
middotFX weekly Pikachu aint no hobbit (25 Nov)
middotFX weekly Powell pondering pausing (18 Nov)
middotFX weekly Another SOMA-test of 113 (11 Nov)
middotFX weekly 113 will hold unless the Republicans keep both chambers (04 Nov)
middotFX weekly HIA SOMA and REBA-days (28 Oct)
middotFX weekly The debt ceiling is a USD ceiling (21 Oct)
middotFX weekly Volatility makes odd bedfellows (14 Oct)
middotFX weekly No Di-Maionnaise for your EURs (yet) (7 Oct)
middotFX weekly Along came year-end (30 Sep)
middotFX weekly Twin deficit scare 2 (23 Sep)
middotFX weekly The Pope of Nope has spoken (16 Sep)
middotFX weekly Who wants to impeach a +60 ISM president (09 Sep)
middotFX weekly It is time to go long Scandis again (02 Sep)
middotFX weekly The Conte-Trump alliance (26 Aug)
middotFX weekly Fat-burning shorts (19 Aug)
middotFX weekly Time to call in Steven Seagal(12 Aug)
middotFX weekly Is the cyclical momentum over-priced (05 Aug)
middotFX weekly How to trade a cease-fire (29 Jul)
middotFX weekly Whats that curve (22 Jul)
middotFX weekly The China Factor (15 Jul)
middotFX weekly Take a short trade war breather (08 Jul)
middotFX weekly Trump will never 238 (01 Jul)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
middotFX weekly The USD is the best carry currency in the world (24 Jun)
middotFX weekly Dollar to provide headwinds for earning estimates (17 Jun)
middotFX weekly Fire and fury risks for the USD (10 Jun)
middotFX weekly Its not only Italy (03 Jun)
middotFX weekly The Sumo SOMA days (27 May)
middotFX weekly EM wont be sprinting if the Fed is unprinting (20 May)
middotFX weekly The two final nails in the dovish FOMC-con (13 May)
middotFX weekly Is there anything left in the USD bull-run (06 May)
middotFX weekly Dragon Energy (29 Apr)
middotFX weekly Relative curvature is the new king of FX (22 Apr)
middotFX weekly Why is EURUSD not trading lower (15 Apr)
middotFX weekly Like watching paint dry they said (08 Apr)
middotFX weekly The list of potential USD-positives is getting longer (01 Apr)
middotFX weekly 2 reasons why EURUSD has decoupled from rates spreads (25 Mar)
middotFX weekly Time to buy a USD lottery ticket (18 Mar)
middotFX weekly Taxation mirror on the wall who is the fairest of them all (11 Mar)
middotFX weekly Trumps game of chicken (04 Mar)
middotFX weekly Will the market neglect the clutch of canaries (25 Feb)
middotFX weekly Is the correlation break-down driven by FX hedges (18 Feb)
middotFX weekly The liquidity tide is ebbing (11 Feb)
middotFX weekly Hawkish spectacles (04 Feb)
middotFX weekly Who will stop EURUSD from moving higher (28 Jan)
middotFX weekly Did the Democrats dent the Dollar (21 Jan)
middotFX weekly Is 125 the new 120 (14 Jan)
middotFX weekly The euphoria rises (07 Jan)
middotFX weekly Paging Dr Pangloss (01 Jan)
middotFX weekly The R-star of Bethlehem (24 Dec)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
middotFX weekly A numbers game (17 Dec)
middotFX weekly The year-end liquidty shrink (10 Dec)
middotFX weekly Three reasons why EURUSD isnt trading lower (03 Dec)
middotFX weekly Which currencies to sell if the housing downturn continues (26 Nov)
middotFX weekly The global industrial cycle is set to weaken (19 Nov)
middotFX weekly Is high-yield a canary in the global coal mine (12 Nov)
middotFX weekly Is this the end of the inflation convergence trade in EURUSD (5 Nov)
middotFX weekly Was that it for the EUR bulls (29 Oct)
middotFX weekly Hawks in opposition doves in charge (22 Oct)
middot FX weeklyContinued convergence or re-divergence(15 Oct)
middotFX weekly Thingsdont matter until they do(08 Oct)
middotFX weekly October seasonality is strong (01 Oct)
middotFX weekly ldquoIs 120 the new 115rdquo(24 Sep)
middot FX weekly Honey I shrunk the balance sheet(17 Sep)
middot FX weekly ldquoUSD liquidity will turn scarcer but whenrdquo (10 Sep)
middot FX weekly ldquoStrong currencies and inflationrdquo(3 Sep)
middot FX weekly ldquoUSD in the (Jackson) holerdquo (27 Aug)
middot FX weekly ldquoQ4 is the USD quarterrdquo(20 Aug)
middot FX weekly ldquoIn the year 2525rdquo(13 Aug)
middot FX weekly ldquoEURUSD ceiling or debt ceilingrdquo(6 Aug)
middot FX weeklyldquoElevator up stairs down ldquo(30 Jul)
middot FX weeklyTrump ldquospicesrdquo up EURUSD(23 Jul)
middot FX weeklyFlip-flop(16 Jul)
middot FX weeklyConsolidation time(9 Jul)
middot FX weeklyHawks R Us(2 Jul)
middot FX weeklyAnother lowflation week(25 Jun)
middot FX weeklyNo Fed put(18 Jun)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
middot FX weeklyA bouncy dollar(11 Jun)
middot FX weeklyHeating up(4 Jun)
middot FX weeklySummertime sadness(28 May)
middot FX weeklySpecial counsel lessens Trumpbulence while OPEC looms(21 May)
middot FX weeklyAre China worries old hat(14 May)
middot FX weeklyInflation weekhellip(7 May)
Andreas Steno LarsenChief Global FXFI Strategistandreasstenolarsennordeacom+45 55 46 72 29
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
middotFX weekly The Riksbank is not a leading indicator of the ECB (22 Dec)
middotFX weekly Merry Christmas from the POTUS (15 Dec)
middotFX weekly Why this is not 20152016 all over again (08 Dec)
middotFX weekly Waiting for Godot (01 Dec)
middotFX weekly Get ready for Climate QE 2 (24 Nov)
middotFX weekly FX space yet to corroborate the reflationistas (17 Nov)
middotFX weekly Dont extrapolate the 60 Bs (10 Nov)
middotFX weekly 99 problems but the NOK aint one (3 Nov)
middotFX weekly Something big just happened (27 Oct)
middotFX weekly The QE train to nowhere (20 Oct)
middotFX weekly The 50 Brsquos caused the downturn so what about the 60 Brsquos (13 Oct)
middotFX weekly Is everything falling apart (6 Oct)
middotFX weekly A new path for USD liquidity (29 Sep)
middotFX weekly Soft QE in October (22 Sep)
middotFX weekly Welcome to the birthday party (15 Sep)
middotFX weekly An early santa rally (08 Sep)
middotFX weekly Can you smell the Sushi yet (01 Sep)
middotFX weekly Mo taris mo cuts but whorsquos Sho Nu (25 Aug)
middotFX weekly First havens then sell confetti (18 Aug)
middotFX weekly The liquidity doom loop (11 Aug)
middotFX weekly Buy Treasuries Short Scandis Wear Diamonds (04 Aug)
middotFX weekly Lagarde better practice her Rhine dancing (28 Jul)
middotFX weekly Go big or go home (21 Jul)
middotFX weekly The liquidity plot thickens (14 Jul)
middotFX weekly e-scooters are silly (07Jul)
middotFX weekly One is exausted the other is nuts(30 Jun)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
middotFX weekly Time to bring in Steven Seagal 2 (23 Jun)
middotFX weekly Get ready for climate QE (16 Jun)
middotFX weekly Cut cut cut cut (09 Jun)
middotFX weekly The absolute madman (02 Jun)
middotFX weekly Will Xi be Nikithared (26 May)
middotFX weekly Trade war ping pong (19 May)
middotFX weekly A stairway to heaven for Krona shorts (12 May)
middotFX weekly Mnuchin to bail-out Fed (05 May)
middotFX weekly 3 reasons why the USD has been resurgent (28 Apr)
middotFX weekly No doomsday (yet) (21 Apr)
middotFX weekly In EUR we trust (14 Apr)
middotFX weekly Crouching Tiger Hidden Inflation Dragon (07 Apr)
middotFX weekly There is a smell of 2016 in the air (31 Mar)
middotFX weekly Dear Mr Powell (24 Mar)
middotFX weekly The devils advocate (17 Mar)
middotFX weekly Mario Bla-blaghi (10 Mar)
middotFX weekly Chinese reflation (3 Mar)
middotFX weekly QT cannot run forever (24 Feb)
middotFX weekly The USD is now in Trumps hands (17 Feb)
middotFX weekly Time to care about Euro area politics again (10 Feb)
middotFX weekly Is Powell turning into a MAGA-man (03 Feb)
middotFX weekly On climate angst and fake news (27 Jan)
middotFX weekly The Mnuchin bailout (20 Jan)
middotFX weekly FX weekly Cause Im a flip-flopper yes I am (13 Jan)
middotFX weekly FX weekly Treasury vs Fed (06 Jan)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
middotFX weekly Top 4 FXMM trades for Q1-2019 (01 Jan)
middotFX weekly On liquidity witches and warlocks (23 Dec)
middotFX weekly Qui Navance pas recule (16 Dec)
middotFX weekly Burnin down the house (9 Dec)
middotFX weekly In Gut we Trust (2 Dec)
middotFX weekly Pikachu aint no hobbit (25 Nov)
middotFX weekly Powell pondering pausing (18 Nov)
middotFX weekly Another SOMA-test of 113 (11 Nov)
middotFX weekly 113 will hold unless the Republicans keep both chambers (04 Nov)
middotFX weekly HIA SOMA and REBA-days (28 Oct)
middotFX weekly The debt ceiling is a USD ceiling (21 Oct)
middotFX weekly Volatility makes odd bedfellows (14 Oct)
middotFX weekly No Di-Maionnaise for your EURs (yet) (7 Oct)
middotFX weekly Along came year-end (30 Sep)
middotFX weekly Twin deficit scare 2 (23 Sep)
middotFX weekly The Pope of Nope has spoken (16 Sep)
middotFX weekly Who wants to impeach a +60 ISM president (09 Sep)
middotFX weekly It is time to go long Scandis again (02 Sep)
middotFX weekly The Conte-Trump alliance (26 Aug)
middotFX weekly Fat-burning shorts (19 Aug)
middotFX weekly Time to call in Steven Seagal(12 Aug)
middotFX weekly Is the cyclical momentum over-priced (05 Aug)
middotFX weekly How to trade a cease-fire (29 Jul)
middotFX weekly Whats that curve (22 Jul)
middotFX weekly The China Factor (15 Jul)
middotFX weekly Take a short trade war breather (08 Jul)
middotFX weekly Trump will never 238 (01 Jul)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
middotFX weekly The USD is the best carry currency in the world (24 Jun)
middotFX weekly Dollar to provide headwinds for earning estimates (17 Jun)
middotFX weekly Fire and fury risks for the USD (10 Jun)
middotFX weekly Its not only Italy (03 Jun)
middotFX weekly The Sumo SOMA days (27 May)
middotFX weekly EM wont be sprinting if the Fed is unprinting (20 May)
middotFX weekly The two final nails in the dovish FOMC-con (13 May)
middotFX weekly Is there anything left in the USD bull-run (06 May)
middotFX weekly Dragon Energy (29 Apr)
middotFX weekly Relative curvature is the new king of FX (22 Apr)
middotFX weekly Why is EURUSD not trading lower (15 Apr)
middotFX weekly Like watching paint dry they said (08 Apr)
middotFX weekly The list of potential USD-positives is getting longer (01 Apr)
middotFX weekly 2 reasons why EURUSD has decoupled from rates spreads (25 Mar)
middotFX weekly Time to buy a USD lottery ticket (18 Mar)
middotFX weekly Taxation mirror on the wall who is the fairest of them all (11 Mar)
middotFX weekly Trumps game of chicken (04 Mar)
middotFX weekly Will the market neglect the clutch of canaries (25 Feb)
middotFX weekly Is the correlation break-down driven by FX hedges (18 Feb)
middotFX weekly The liquidity tide is ebbing (11 Feb)
middotFX weekly Hawkish spectacles (04 Feb)
middotFX weekly Who will stop EURUSD from moving higher (28 Jan)
middotFX weekly Did the Democrats dent the Dollar (21 Jan)
middotFX weekly Is 125 the new 120 (14 Jan)
middotFX weekly The euphoria rises (07 Jan)
middotFX weekly Paging Dr Pangloss (01 Jan)
middotFX weekly The R-star of Bethlehem (24 Dec)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
middotFX weekly A numbers game (17 Dec)
middotFX weekly The year-end liquidty shrink (10 Dec)
middotFX weekly Three reasons why EURUSD isnt trading lower (03 Dec)
middotFX weekly Which currencies to sell if the housing downturn continues (26 Nov)
middotFX weekly The global industrial cycle is set to weaken (19 Nov)
middotFX weekly Is high-yield a canary in the global coal mine (12 Nov)
middotFX weekly Is this the end of the inflation convergence trade in EURUSD (5 Nov)
middotFX weekly Was that it for the EUR bulls (29 Oct)
middotFX weekly Hawks in opposition doves in charge (22 Oct)
middot FX weeklyContinued convergence or re-divergence(15 Oct)
middotFX weekly Thingsdont matter until they do(08 Oct)
middotFX weekly October seasonality is strong (01 Oct)
middotFX weekly ldquoIs 120 the new 115rdquo(24 Sep)
middot FX weekly Honey I shrunk the balance sheet(17 Sep)
middot FX weekly ldquoUSD liquidity will turn scarcer but whenrdquo (10 Sep)
middot FX weekly ldquoStrong currencies and inflationrdquo(3 Sep)
middot FX weekly ldquoUSD in the (Jackson) holerdquo (27 Aug)
middot FX weekly ldquoQ4 is the USD quarterrdquo(20 Aug)
middot FX weekly ldquoIn the year 2525rdquo(13 Aug)
middot FX weekly ldquoEURUSD ceiling or debt ceilingrdquo(6 Aug)
middot FX weeklyldquoElevator up stairs down ldquo(30 Jul)
middot FX weeklyTrump ldquospicesrdquo up EURUSD(23 Jul)
middot FX weeklyFlip-flop(16 Jul)
middot FX weeklyConsolidation time(9 Jul)
middot FX weeklyHawks R Us(2 Jul)
middot FX weeklyAnother lowflation week(25 Jun)
middot FX weeklyNo Fed put(18 Jun)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
middot FX weeklyA bouncy dollar(11 Jun)
middot FX weeklyHeating up(4 Jun)
middot FX weeklySummertime sadness(28 May)
middot FX weeklySpecial counsel lessens Trumpbulence while OPEC looms(21 May)
middot FX weeklyAre China worries old hat(14 May)
middot FX weeklyInflation weekhellip(7 May)
Andreas Steno LarsenChief Global FXFI Strategistandreasstenolarsennordeacom+45 55 46 72 29
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
middotFX weekly Time to bring in Steven Seagal 2 (23 Jun)
middotFX weekly Get ready for climate QE (16 Jun)
middotFX weekly Cut cut cut cut (09 Jun)
middotFX weekly The absolute madman (02 Jun)
middotFX weekly Will Xi be Nikithared (26 May)
middotFX weekly Trade war ping pong (19 May)
middotFX weekly A stairway to heaven for Krona shorts (12 May)
middotFX weekly Mnuchin to bail-out Fed (05 May)
middotFX weekly 3 reasons why the USD has been resurgent (28 Apr)
middotFX weekly No doomsday (yet) (21 Apr)
middotFX weekly In EUR we trust (14 Apr)
middotFX weekly Crouching Tiger Hidden Inflation Dragon (07 Apr)
middotFX weekly There is a smell of 2016 in the air (31 Mar)
middotFX weekly Dear Mr Powell (24 Mar)
middotFX weekly The devils advocate (17 Mar)
middotFX weekly Mario Bla-blaghi (10 Mar)
middotFX weekly Chinese reflation (3 Mar)
middotFX weekly QT cannot run forever (24 Feb)
middotFX weekly The USD is now in Trumps hands (17 Feb)
middotFX weekly Time to care about Euro area politics again (10 Feb)
middotFX weekly Is Powell turning into a MAGA-man (03 Feb)
middotFX weekly On climate angst and fake news (27 Jan)
middotFX weekly The Mnuchin bailout (20 Jan)
middotFX weekly FX weekly Cause Im a flip-flopper yes I am (13 Jan)
middotFX weekly FX weekly Treasury vs Fed (06 Jan)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
middotFX weekly Top 4 FXMM trades for Q1-2019 (01 Jan)
middotFX weekly On liquidity witches and warlocks (23 Dec)
middotFX weekly Qui Navance pas recule (16 Dec)
middotFX weekly Burnin down the house (9 Dec)
middotFX weekly In Gut we Trust (2 Dec)
middotFX weekly Pikachu aint no hobbit (25 Nov)
middotFX weekly Powell pondering pausing (18 Nov)
middotFX weekly Another SOMA-test of 113 (11 Nov)
middotFX weekly 113 will hold unless the Republicans keep both chambers (04 Nov)
middotFX weekly HIA SOMA and REBA-days (28 Oct)
middotFX weekly The debt ceiling is a USD ceiling (21 Oct)
middotFX weekly Volatility makes odd bedfellows (14 Oct)
middotFX weekly No Di-Maionnaise for your EURs (yet) (7 Oct)
middotFX weekly Along came year-end (30 Sep)
middotFX weekly Twin deficit scare 2 (23 Sep)
middotFX weekly The Pope of Nope has spoken (16 Sep)
middotFX weekly Who wants to impeach a +60 ISM president (09 Sep)
middotFX weekly It is time to go long Scandis again (02 Sep)
middotFX weekly The Conte-Trump alliance (26 Aug)
middotFX weekly Fat-burning shorts (19 Aug)
middotFX weekly Time to call in Steven Seagal(12 Aug)
middotFX weekly Is the cyclical momentum over-priced (05 Aug)
middotFX weekly How to trade a cease-fire (29 Jul)
middotFX weekly Whats that curve (22 Jul)
middotFX weekly The China Factor (15 Jul)
middotFX weekly Take a short trade war breather (08 Jul)
middotFX weekly Trump will never 238 (01 Jul)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
middotFX weekly The USD is the best carry currency in the world (24 Jun)
middotFX weekly Dollar to provide headwinds for earning estimates (17 Jun)
middotFX weekly Fire and fury risks for the USD (10 Jun)
middotFX weekly Its not only Italy (03 Jun)
middotFX weekly The Sumo SOMA days (27 May)
middotFX weekly EM wont be sprinting if the Fed is unprinting (20 May)
middotFX weekly The two final nails in the dovish FOMC-con (13 May)
middotFX weekly Is there anything left in the USD bull-run (06 May)
middotFX weekly Dragon Energy (29 Apr)
middotFX weekly Relative curvature is the new king of FX (22 Apr)
middotFX weekly Why is EURUSD not trading lower (15 Apr)
middotFX weekly Like watching paint dry they said (08 Apr)
middotFX weekly The list of potential USD-positives is getting longer (01 Apr)
middotFX weekly 2 reasons why EURUSD has decoupled from rates spreads (25 Mar)
middotFX weekly Time to buy a USD lottery ticket (18 Mar)
middotFX weekly Taxation mirror on the wall who is the fairest of them all (11 Mar)
middotFX weekly Trumps game of chicken (04 Mar)
middotFX weekly Will the market neglect the clutch of canaries (25 Feb)
middotFX weekly Is the correlation break-down driven by FX hedges (18 Feb)
middotFX weekly The liquidity tide is ebbing (11 Feb)
middotFX weekly Hawkish spectacles (04 Feb)
middotFX weekly Who will stop EURUSD from moving higher (28 Jan)
middotFX weekly Did the Democrats dent the Dollar (21 Jan)
middotFX weekly Is 125 the new 120 (14 Jan)
middotFX weekly The euphoria rises (07 Jan)
middotFX weekly Paging Dr Pangloss (01 Jan)
middotFX weekly The R-star of Bethlehem (24 Dec)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
middotFX weekly A numbers game (17 Dec)
middotFX weekly The year-end liquidty shrink (10 Dec)
middotFX weekly Three reasons why EURUSD isnt trading lower (03 Dec)
middotFX weekly Which currencies to sell if the housing downturn continues (26 Nov)
middotFX weekly The global industrial cycle is set to weaken (19 Nov)
middotFX weekly Is high-yield a canary in the global coal mine (12 Nov)
middotFX weekly Is this the end of the inflation convergence trade in EURUSD (5 Nov)
middotFX weekly Was that it for the EUR bulls (29 Oct)
middotFX weekly Hawks in opposition doves in charge (22 Oct)
middot FX weeklyContinued convergence or re-divergence(15 Oct)
middotFX weekly Thingsdont matter until they do(08 Oct)
middotFX weekly October seasonality is strong (01 Oct)
middotFX weekly ldquoIs 120 the new 115rdquo(24 Sep)
middot FX weekly Honey I shrunk the balance sheet(17 Sep)
middot FX weekly ldquoUSD liquidity will turn scarcer but whenrdquo (10 Sep)
middot FX weekly ldquoStrong currencies and inflationrdquo(3 Sep)
middot FX weekly ldquoUSD in the (Jackson) holerdquo (27 Aug)
middot FX weekly ldquoQ4 is the USD quarterrdquo(20 Aug)
middot FX weekly ldquoIn the year 2525rdquo(13 Aug)
middot FX weekly ldquoEURUSD ceiling or debt ceilingrdquo(6 Aug)
middot FX weeklyldquoElevator up stairs down ldquo(30 Jul)
middot FX weeklyTrump ldquospicesrdquo up EURUSD(23 Jul)
middot FX weeklyFlip-flop(16 Jul)
middot FX weeklyConsolidation time(9 Jul)
middot FX weeklyHawks R Us(2 Jul)
middot FX weeklyAnother lowflation week(25 Jun)
middot FX weeklyNo Fed put(18 Jun)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
middot FX weeklyA bouncy dollar(11 Jun)
middot FX weeklyHeating up(4 Jun)
middot FX weeklySummertime sadness(28 May)
middot FX weeklySpecial counsel lessens Trumpbulence while OPEC looms(21 May)
middot FX weeklyAre China worries old hat(14 May)
middot FX weeklyInflation weekhellip(7 May)
Andreas Steno LarsenChief Global FXFI Strategistandreasstenolarsennordeacom+45 55 46 72 29
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
middotFX weekly Top 4 FXMM trades for Q1-2019 (01 Jan)
middotFX weekly On liquidity witches and warlocks (23 Dec)
middotFX weekly Qui Navance pas recule (16 Dec)
middotFX weekly Burnin down the house (9 Dec)
middotFX weekly In Gut we Trust (2 Dec)
middotFX weekly Pikachu aint no hobbit (25 Nov)
middotFX weekly Powell pondering pausing (18 Nov)
middotFX weekly Another SOMA-test of 113 (11 Nov)
middotFX weekly 113 will hold unless the Republicans keep both chambers (04 Nov)
middotFX weekly HIA SOMA and REBA-days (28 Oct)
middotFX weekly The debt ceiling is a USD ceiling (21 Oct)
middotFX weekly Volatility makes odd bedfellows (14 Oct)
middotFX weekly No Di-Maionnaise for your EURs (yet) (7 Oct)
middotFX weekly Along came year-end (30 Sep)
middotFX weekly Twin deficit scare 2 (23 Sep)
middotFX weekly The Pope of Nope has spoken (16 Sep)
middotFX weekly Who wants to impeach a +60 ISM president (09 Sep)
middotFX weekly It is time to go long Scandis again (02 Sep)
middotFX weekly The Conte-Trump alliance (26 Aug)
middotFX weekly Fat-burning shorts (19 Aug)
middotFX weekly Time to call in Steven Seagal(12 Aug)
middotFX weekly Is the cyclical momentum over-priced (05 Aug)
middotFX weekly How to trade a cease-fire (29 Jul)
middotFX weekly Whats that curve (22 Jul)
middotFX weekly The China Factor (15 Jul)
middotFX weekly Take a short trade war breather (08 Jul)
middotFX weekly Trump will never 238 (01 Jul)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
middotFX weekly The USD is the best carry currency in the world (24 Jun)
middotFX weekly Dollar to provide headwinds for earning estimates (17 Jun)
middotFX weekly Fire and fury risks for the USD (10 Jun)
middotFX weekly Its not only Italy (03 Jun)
middotFX weekly The Sumo SOMA days (27 May)
middotFX weekly EM wont be sprinting if the Fed is unprinting (20 May)
middotFX weekly The two final nails in the dovish FOMC-con (13 May)
middotFX weekly Is there anything left in the USD bull-run (06 May)
middotFX weekly Dragon Energy (29 Apr)
middotFX weekly Relative curvature is the new king of FX (22 Apr)
middotFX weekly Why is EURUSD not trading lower (15 Apr)
middotFX weekly Like watching paint dry they said (08 Apr)
middotFX weekly The list of potential USD-positives is getting longer (01 Apr)
middotFX weekly 2 reasons why EURUSD has decoupled from rates spreads (25 Mar)
middotFX weekly Time to buy a USD lottery ticket (18 Mar)
middotFX weekly Taxation mirror on the wall who is the fairest of them all (11 Mar)
middotFX weekly Trumps game of chicken (04 Mar)
middotFX weekly Will the market neglect the clutch of canaries (25 Feb)
middotFX weekly Is the correlation break-down driven by FX hedges (18 Feb)
middotFX weekly The liquidity tide is ebbing (11 Feb)
middotFX weekly Hawkish spectacles (04 Feb)
middotFX weekly Who will stop EURUSD from moving higher (28 Jan)
middotFX weekly Did the Democrats dent the Dollar (21 Jan)
middotFX weekly Is 125 the new 120 (14 Jan)
middotFX weekly The euphoria rises (07 Jan)
middotFX weekly Paging Dr Pangloss (01 Jan)
middotFX weekly The R-star of Bethlehem (24 Dec)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
middotFX weekly A numbers game (17 Dec)
middotFX weekly The year-end liquidty shrink (10 Dec)
middotFX weekly Three reasons why EURUSD isnt trading lower (03 Dec)
middotFX weekly Which currencies to sell if the housing downturn continues (26 Nov)
middotFX weekly The global industrial cycle is set to weaken (19 Nov)
middotFX weekly Is high-yield a canary in the global coal mine (12 Nov)
middotFX weekly Is this the end of the inflation convergence trade in EURUSD (5 Nov)
middotFX weekly Was that it for the EUR bulls (29 Oct)
middotFX weekly Hawks in opposition doves in charge (22 Oct)
middot FX weeklyContinued convergence or re-divergence(15 Oct)
middotFX weekly Thingsdont matter until they do(08 Oct)
middotFX weekly October seasonality is strong (01 Oct)
middotFX weekly ldquoIs 120 the new 115rdquo(24 Sep)
middot FX weekly Honey I shrunk the balance sheet(17 Sep)
middot FX weekly ldquoUSD liquidity will turn scarcer but whenrdquo (10 Sep)
middot FX weekly ldquoStrong currencies and inflationrdquo(3 Sep)
middot FX weekly ldquoUSD in the (Jackson) holerdquo (27 Aug)
middot FX weekly ldquoQ4 is the USD quarterrdquo(20 Aug)
middot FX weekly ldquoIn the year 2525rdquo(13 Aug)
middot FX weekly ldquoEURUSD ceiling or debt ceilingrdquo(6 Aug)
middot FX weeklyldquoElevator up stairs down ldquo(30 Jul)
middot FX weeklyTrump ldquospicesrdquo up EURUSD(23 Jul)
middot FX weeklyFlip-flop(16 Jul)
middot FX weeklyConsolidation time(9 Jul)
middot FX weeklyHawks R Us(2 Jul)
middot FX weeklyAnother lowflation week(25 Jun)
middot FX weeklyNo Fed put(18 Jun)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
middot FX weeklyA bouncy dollar(11 Jun)
middot FX weeklyHeating up(4 Jun)
middot FX weeklySummertime sadness(28 May)
middot FX weeklySpecial counsel lessens Trumpbulence while OPEC looms(21 May)
middot FX weeklyAre China worries old hat(14 May)
middot FX weeklyInflation weekhellip(7 May)
Andreas Steno LarsenChief Global FXFI Strategistandreasstenolarsennordeacom+45 55 46 72 29
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
middotFX weekly The USD is the best carry currency in the world (24 Jun)
middotFX weekly Dollar to provide headwinds for earning estimates (17 Jun)
middotFX weekly Fire and fury risks for the USD (10 Jun)
middotFX weekly Its not only Italy (03 Jun)
middotFX weekly The Sumo SOMA days (27 May)
middotFX weekly EM wont be sprinting if the Fed is unprinting (20 May)
middotFX weekly The two final nails in the dovish FOMC-con (13 May)
middotFX weekly Is there anything left in the USD bull-run (06 May)
middotFX weekly Dragon Energy (29 Apr)
middotFX weekly Relative curvature is the new king of FX (22 Apr)
middotFX weekly Why is EURUSD not trading lower (15 Apr)
middotFX weekly Like watching paint dry they said (08 Apr)
middotFX weekly The list of potential USD-positives is getting longer (01 Apr)
middotFX weekly 2 reasons why EURUSD has decoupled from rates spreads (25 Mar)
middotFX weekly Time to buy a USD lottery ticket (18 Mar)
middotFX weekly Taxation mirror on the wall who is the fairest of them all (11 Mar)
middotFX weekly Trumps game of chicken (04 Mar)
middotFX weekly Will the market neglect the clutch of canaries (25 Feb)
middotFX weekly Is the correlation break-down driven by FX hedges (18 Feb)
middotFX weekly The liquidity tide is ebbing (11 Feb)
middotFX weekly Hawkish spectacles (04 Feb)
middotFX weekly Who will stop EURUSD from moving higher (28 Jan)
middotFX weekly Did the Democrats dent the Dollar (21 Jan)
middotFX weekly Is 125 the new 120 (14 Jan)
middotFX weekly The euphoria rises (07 Jan)
middotFX weekly Paging Dr Pangloss (01 Jan)
middotFX weekly The R-star of Bethlehem (24 Dec)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
middotFX weekly A numbers game (17 Dec)
middotFX weekly The year-end liquidty shrink (10 Dec)
middotFX weekly Three reasons why EURUSD isnt trading lower (03 Dec)
middotFX weekly Which currencies to sell if the housing downturn continues (26 Nov)
middotFX weekly The global industrial cycle is set to weaken (19 Nov)
middotFX weekly Is high-yield a canary in the global coal mine (12 Nov)
middotFX weekly Is this the end of the inflation convergence trade in EURUSD (5 Nov)
middotFX weekly Was that it for the EUR bulls (29 Oct)
middotFX weekly Hawks in opposition doves in charge (22 Oct)
middot FX weeklyContinued convergence or re-divergence(15 Oct)
middotFX weekly Thingsdont matter until they do(08 Oct)
middotFX weekly October seasonality is strong (01 Oct)
middotFX weekly ldquoIs 120 the new 115rdquo(24 Sep)
middot FX weekly Honey I shrunk the balance sheet(17 Sep)
middot FX weekly ldquoUSD liquidity will turn scarcer but whenrdquo (10 Sep)
middot FX weekly ldquoStrong currencies and inflationrdquo(3 Sep)
middot FX weekly ldquoUSD in the (Jackson) holerdquo (27 Aug)
middot FX weekly ldquoQ4 is the USD quarterrdquo(20 Aug)
middot FX weekly ldquoIn the year 2525rdquo(13 Aug)
middot FX weekly ldquoEURUSD ceiling or debt ceilingrdquo(6 Aug)
middot FX weeklyldquoElevator up stairs down ldquo(30 Jul)
middot FX weeklyTrump ldquospicesrdquo up EURUSD(23 Jul)
middot FX weeklyFlip-flop(16 Jul)
middot FX weeklyConsolidation time(9 Jul)
middot FX weeklyHawks R Us(2 Jul)
middot FX weeklyAnother lowflation week(25 Jun)
middot FX weeklyNo Fed put(18 Jun)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
middot FX weeklyA bouncy dollar(11 Jun)
middot FX weeklyHeating up(4 Jun)
middot FX weeklySummertime sadness(28 May)
middot FX weeklySpecial counsel lessens Trumpbulence while OPEC looms(21 May)
middot FX weeklyAre China worries old hat(14 May)
middot FX weeklyInflation weekhellip(7 May)
Andreas Steno LarsenChief Global FXFI Strategistandreasstenolarsennordeacom+45 55 46 72 29
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
middotFX weekly A numbers game (17 Dec)
middotFX weekly The year-end liquidty shrink (10 Dec)
middotFX weekly Three reasons why EURUSD isnt trading lower (03 Dec)
middotFX weekly Which currencies to sell if the housing downturn continues (26 Nov)
middotFX weekly The global industrial cycle is set to weaken (19 Nov)
middotFX weekly Is high-yield a canary in the global coal mine (12 Nov)
middotFX weekly Is this the end of the inflation convergence trade in EURUSD (5 Nov)
middotFX weekly Was that it for the EUR bulls (29 Oct)
middotFX weekly Hawks in opposition doves in charge (22 Oct)
middot FX weeklyContinued convergence or re-divergence(15 Oct)
middotFX weekly Thingsdont matter until they do(08 Oct)
middotFX weekly October seasonality is strong (01 Oct)
middotFX weekly ldquoIs 120 the new 115rdquo(24 Sep)
middot FX weekly Honey I shrunk the balance sheet(17 Sep)
middot FX weekly ldquoUSD liquidity will turn scarcer but whenrdquo (10 Sep)
middot FX weekly ldquoStrong currencies and inflationrdquo(3 Sep)
middot FX weekly ldquoUSD in the (Jackson) holerdquo (27 Aug)
middot FX weekly ldquoQ4 is the USD quarterrdquo(20 Aug)
middot FX weekly ldquoIn the year 2525rdquo(13 Aug)
middot FX weekly ldquoEURUSD ceiling or debt ceilingrdquo(6 Aug)
middot FX weeklyldquoElevator up stairs down ldquo(30 Jul)
middot FX weeklyTrump ldquospicesrdquo up EURUSD(23 Jul)
middot FX weeklyFlip-flop(16 Jul)
middot FX weeklyConsolidation time(9 Jul)
middot FX weeklyHawks R Us(2 Jul)
middot FX weeklyAnother lowflation week(25 Jun)
middot FX weeklyNo Fed put(18 Jun)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
middot FX weeklyA bouncy dollar(11 Jun)
middot FX weeklyHeating up(4 Jun)
middot FX weeklySummertime sadness(28 May)
middot FX weeklySpecial counsel lessens Trumpbulence while OPEC looms(21 May)
middot FX weeklyAre China worries old hat(14 May)
middot FX weeklyInflation weekhellip(7 May)
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e-marketsnordeacomarticle60553fx-weekly-this-is-mmt-how-should-you-trade-it
