FX Weekly Commentary - Sep 11 - Sep 17 2011 Elite Global Trading
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Transcript of FX Weekly Commentary - Sep 11 - Sep 17 2011 Elite Global Trading
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8/4/2019 FX Weekly Commentary - Sep 11 - Sep 17 2011 Elite Global Trading
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The euro zones contagion shocks the markets
and sends the EURUSD to monthly lows down
to 1.3620, breaking the 6 month triangle
pattern it had created. A break below 1.3975
and 1.3840 has given the EURUSD some
steam as it moves to the downside. As Greece
approaches a possible default, the EURUSD
looks to possible keep its pace to downsidemovement. As the euro zone uncertainty
starts to reach a climax, the markets around
the world will be most likely shaken up going
into this weeks trading. Last week we were
surprised with the SNB move to Peg the Swiss
Franc against the EURO, which is a bold move
of manipulating their currency to limit risk in
Switzerland. Next in line to make bold moves
on their currency is BOJ, as the Yen moves
towards it's highs the BOJ will most likely not
allow for any further strengthening of their
currency, which will bring some sharp moves
on the YEN pairs in the weeks to come. As the
world waits to see if Ben Bernanke will move
into QE3 the US Dollar strengthens against
most of its counterparts, if we do not hear any
talk about QE3 from the FED we will most
likely see the US Dollar continue to
strengthen. Keep a close eye on these
developments when taking positions in the
currency markets. All EURO pairs have
made substantial moves down last week
on the Euro zone concerns and are
expected to continue over time, we will
most likely get more information on plans
to hold Euro zone together in the weekahead which will bring stable movement
for the EURO after last weeks slide down
on economic worries of collapse.
Bank of Japan has the go ahead from the G7
to take action if they feel it is necessary to
weaken their currency, with this said, we are
very skeptical to take any shorts in GBPJPY,
EURJPY, USDJPY, AUDJPY. For the time being
we will step aside from any short plays in
these pairs.
SNB also has taken bold action on their
currency with making a move to Peg their
currency against the EURO. On Thursday they
have their rate statement, and also have
stated they will stand firm with holding their
currency above 1.2000 against the EURO,
with this said, we are skeptical to take shorts
in the Swiss pairs until the market adapts to
this standing by the SNB.
Fundamental Outlook
Elite Global
Trading Forex Weekly CommentarySep 11th Sep 17th 2011 Volume 1, Issue 19
In this issue:
Fundamental
Outlook
1
AUDUSD
NZDUSD2
EURUSD
EURJPY3
GBPJPY
Event Risk4
Contact Info
Disclaimer5
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8/4/2019 FX Weekly Commentary - Sep 11 - Sep 17 2011 Elite Global Trading
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Elite Global
Trading
Sep 11th Sep 17th 2011 Volume 1, Issue 19
AUDUSD: The Aussie received great GDP, theeconomy in Australia grew by 1.2% in Q2.Although employment data was weak in
August: a drop in jobs and a rise in the
unemployment rate has put recent pressure
on the Australian dollar. The rally from parity
up to 1.0780 area looks to be complete and a
move back down towards 1.0300 is likely in
the week to come. Upside should be capped
well below 1.0750 area. Below 1.0300 the
lows near parity will certainly be tested, which
we expect to happen in the near future.
Recommendation: Bearish Bias, with risk offtrends starting to take over, we see 1.0300 in
target range this week, a break below 1.0300
a move down to 1.0000 is very likely. We
favor a rally prior to entry on short side. Look
for a move up towards 1.0550-1.0600 being
possible.
Australian Dollar / United States Dollar
NZDUSD: RBNZ will give their rate statementon Wednesday, no change is expected at the
moment. As risk appetite trends shift to risk
off trends we will most likely see this pair
back down towards .7900 in the weeks to
come.
Recommendation: Bearish Bias, a rally upto .8285-.8350. Support on the downside sits
at .8197, .8160, .8080, and .7965. We see aplay down to lows over the weeks to come. Be
cautious of the short term rally before the
move down to the lows happen.
New Zealand Dollar (Kiwi) / United States Dollar
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8/4/2019 FX Weekly Commentary - Sep 11 - Sep 17 2011 Elite Global Trading
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Elite Global
Trading
Sep 11th Sep 17th 2011 Volume 1, Issue 19
EURJPY: Has had a very strong move to thebearish side with the EUR on verge of
contagion. The appreciation of the YEN across
all pairs is not going to last with the BOJ on
the verge of pulling the trigger and moving
forward with intervening on the YEN strength,
if this happens you will see a spike up on all
YEN pairs. In the meantime the EURJPY is at
all time lows and most likely will continue to
push lower until BOJ takes action. Bearish
plays on any YEN pairs now is very dangerous
with G7 this past week saying they support
any moves done by BOJ to intervene for their
economies sake.
Recommendation: Bearish Bias, Careful ofany shorts with the BOJ on the verge of
intervention. We are very skeptical of going
short.
Euro / Japanese Yen
EURUSD: The acknowledgement by the ECBthat downside risks to growth have increased
suggest that ECB rate cut speculation will only
increase in the weeks to come. Also take a
look at the spread between 2-year US-German
government bonds now points to a EUR/USD
rate in the 1.2900/3000 area.
Technically, daily Ichimoku charts delivered a
strong sell signal in EUR/USD, with the
anticipated bearish crossover of the Tenkan
line below the Kijun line with price below the
cloud. At the close of the week, price is also
holding above the 61.8% retracement
(1.3659) of the 1.2867-1.4940 advance from
Jan. to May. Daily closes below these levels
will strongly suggest to me that further losses
are imminent and I would look for declines to
the 1.3350/60 area (76.4% retracement) as
the next target. We look to re-establish short
EUR/USD positions in the 1.3830/1.3960
area, which is marked by the daily lows in
June 2011 (1.3830/40) and broken trend
line support dating back to June 2010
(1.3955/60).
Recommendation: Bearish Bias, we look tosee this downward movement to continue in
the weeks to come. First we would like to see
a rally back towards 1.3840-1.3950 to look
for another short entry. A rally up cannot be
ruled out so be careful where you place your
entries on this strong movement down, but at
the same time with markets scared around
the world a continued move down without a
rally can also be very possible. We prefer to
wait for rally to have a tighter risk on the next
move down. With an entry zone between
1.3840-1.3950 we like to place stops above1.4100, looking for targets around 1.3407
and lower.
Euro / United States Dollar
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8/4/2019 FX Weekly Commentary - Sep 11 - Sep 17 2011 Elite Global Trading
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Elite Global
Trading
Sep 11th Sep 17th 2011 Volume 1, Issue 19
Sunday:AUD: Trade Balance 9:30pm
Monday:USD: FOMC Member Fisher Speaks 4pm
Tuesday:
GBP: CPI 4:30am
GBP: Trade Balance 4:30am
AUD: Westpac Consumer Sentiment 8:30pm
WednesdayCHF: PPI 3:15am
GBP: Claimant Count Change 4:30am
EUR: Industrial Production 5am
USD: Core Retail Sales 8:30am
USD: PPI 8:30am
NZD: Rate Decision/Statement 5pm
AUD: MI Inflation Expectations 9pm
Thursday:CHF: Libor Rate/SNB Policy Statement
3:30am
EUR: ECB Monthly Bulletin 4am
GBP: Retail Sales 4:30am
EUR: CPI 5am
USD: Core CPI 8:30am
USD: Unemployment Claims 8:30am
USD: Philly Fed Manufacturing Index 10am
Friday:EUR: Current Account 4am
USD: TIC Long-Term Purchases 9am
USD: Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment
9:55am
Weeks Event Risk
GBPUSD: The Pound has dropped along withglobal worries and British weakness. Theupcoming week has key inflation and
employment figures. Members at the Bank of
England might be discussing more
quantitative easing, which we may here more
about as weak data continues to come out of
the UK. We are holding above July low of
1.5785 and will likely break below this low in
the weeks to come as weakness in the
GBPUSD continues to build.
Recommendation: Bearish Bias, a move downtowards 1.5650 is likely in the weeks tocome. We favor a rally towards 1.6050-
1.6100. As the pair gains momentum to the
downside 1.5344 is December 2010 low that
is most likely to make it's next move towards
once it breaks 1.5785. Look for short
opportunities after rally. All moves to the
upside will most likely be capped well below
1.6200.
UK Pound Sterling / Japanese Yen
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8/4/2019 FX Weekly Commentary - Sep 11 - Sep 17 2011 Elite Global Trading
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Any reliance you place onsuch information is thereforestrictly at your own risk.
In no event will we be liable for any
loss or damage including without
limitation, indirect or consequential
loss or damage, or any loss or
damage whatsoever arising from
loss of data or profits arising out of,
or in connection with, the use of this
newsletter.
The information contained in this
newsletter is for general information
purposes only. The information is
provided by Elite Global Trading and
while we endeavor to keep the
information up to date and correct,
we make no representations or
warranties of any kind, express or
implied, about the completeness,
accuracy, reliability, suitability or
availability with respect to the
newsletter or the information,
products, services, or related
graphics contained on the
newsletter for any purpose.
News letter Authors:
Anthony [email protected]
James [email protected]
Tel: 786-759-0348
E-mail:
Elite Global Trading
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