FX weekly: Blanchard and the risk of overheating
19
07 February 2021 FX weekly: Blanchard and the risk of overheating Andreas Steno Larsen | Martin Enlund Summers and Blanchard have started to warn about the risk of overheating the US economy, should the $1900bn Biden-nomics plan be implemented. Could the Fed turn similarly scared, if core inflation starts running above 2% in Q2? If you want to receive a copy of FX weekly directly in your inbox, you can sign up via this link. Table 1: Our current convictions Quote of the week "Let me double down and go through some numbers. I agree that too much is better than too little and we should aim for some overheating. The question is how much. Much too much is both possible and harmful. I think this package is too much." Olivier Blanchard One of the key findings in the aftermath of the Great Financial Crisis was that the risk of doing too much is way smaller than the risk of doing too little. This mantra has clearly paved its way in to most administrations during the Covid-19 crisis and even big institutions as the OECD and IMF have slowly but surely accepted that a debt-financed fiscal response is the only feasible way to ensure a swift rebound from the Covid-19 crisis. In recent days, two of the more profiled advocates of easier fiscal policy just a few months back, namely Summers and Blanchard, have started to warn against the risk of overheating the US economy as a result of the $1900bn Biden-nomics plan. This goes to show that it is easy to say that the risk of doing too much is low when nothing is done, but as soon as a big package is actually being pondered, the same experts start to back-paddle. e-markets.nordea.com/article/63454/fx-weekly-blanchard-and-the-risk-of-overheating
Transcript of FX weekly: Blanchard and the risk of overheating
07 February 2021
FX weekly Blanchard andthe risk of overheating
Andreas Steno Larsen | Martin Enlund
Summers and Blanchard have started to warn about the risk of overheatingthe US economy should the $1900bn Biden-nomics plan be implementedCould the Fed turn similarly scared if core inflation starts running above 2 inQ2
If you want to receive a copy of FX weekly directly in your inbox you can sign up via this link
Table 1 Our current convictions
Quote of the week
Let me double down and go through some numbers I agree that too much is better than too little and weshould aim for some overheating The question is how much Much too much is both possible and harmful Ithink this package is too much Olivier Blanchard
One of the key findings in the aftermath of the Great Financial Crisis was that the risk of doing too much isway smaller than the risk of doing too little This mantra has clearly paved its way in to most administrationsduring the Covid-19 crisis and even big institutions as the OECD and IMF have slowly but surely accepted thata debt-financed fiscal response is the only feasible way to ensure a swift rebound from the Covid-19 crisis
In recent days two of the more profiled advocates of easier fiscal policy just a few months back namelySummers and Blanchard have started to warn against the risk of overheating the US economy as a result ofthe $1900bn Biden-nomics plan This goes to show that it is easy to say that the risk of doing too much islow when nothing is done but as soon as a big package is actually being pondered the same experts start toback-paddle
e-marketsnordeacomarticle63454fx-weekly-blanchard-and-the-risk-of-overheating
Chart 1 The debt to issuance per quarters depends on the size of Biden-nomics
We still expect a watered down version of the Biden plan to pass congress ($900-1200bn) and given thenew strategy from the Yellen led US Treasury debt will be issued WHEN the plan comes into fruition and notbefore as was the case in 2020 The US Treasury now also finally intends to spend the money on the TGAaccount at the Fed which means that banks will be on the receiving end of that liquidity when the TGA istaken lower (USD liquidity is coming) Excess liquidity in the banking system will accordingly increase andif we includeassume a continued 120Bs a month in QE purchases by the Fed the total liquidity increase inthe first half of 2021 could end up around 16-18trn ndash (almost) without historical precedence This should begood news for US assets vs the rest of the world
e-marketsnordeacomarticle63454fx-weekly-blanchard-and-the-risk-of-overheating
Chart 2 The Treasury General Account will finally be taken lower and commercial bankswill receive the liquidity
There is clearly a possibility of a melt-up in US assets with cascades of liquidity arriving alongside a strongfiscal momentum which could lead to a ldquoketchup eectrdquo in core inflation during the second quarter of thisyear SMEs have started to hint of decade-high price plans output prices from China are rising and both ISMsurveys hint of a large price pressure It is a fairly free lunch to talk about average-inflation-targeting wheninflation runs far below the target but will it be as straight-forward to keep referring to the AIT-regime oncecore inflation starts to run above target in Q2
We see a clear risk that Powell and the Fed starts sounding a bit like Summers and Blanchard as soon asinflation is actually running above target which could lead to an internal Fed debate on the appropriatebalance sheet policy already before summer It is after all much easier to talk about average inflationtargeting as long as you are not tested on actual inflation that runs hotter than the target
e-marketsnordeacomarticle63454fx-weekly-blanchard-and-the-risk-of-overheating
Chart 3 Inflation to run substantially above target in Q2
EURUSD initially declined below 12050 this week makring a break of the neckling of a HampS formation(shoulder from early December and head from early January) This break would suggest a target of 11750before the technicals have played out fully Whatrsquos more the move came around the time of year whenvarious popular trades of the year often tend to unwind While the pair rebounded following a lacklustrenonfarm payrolls report it ran out of steam at that same neckline ndash now possibly ian important resistance
e-marketsnordeacomarticle63454fx-weekly-blanchard-and-the-risk-of-overheating
Chart 4 EURUSD broke down below 12050 and briefly traded below 120
Over the past week we also updated our dollar-o-meter in which we argued that i) relative growth ii) relativeinflation iii) relative central bank policy all seem to favour the USD for now Only one of the four variablesin the -meter politics suggests the dollar is a sell (because of lower perceived economic-political risks andbecause of Biden)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle63454fx-weekly-blanchard-and-the-risk-of-overheating
Chart 5 EURUSD tends to follow relative inflation
While EA inflation topped expectations majestically in January it was driven by what economists shouldprobably have been able to foresee postponed winter sales a reversal of sales taxes in Germany andEurostats decision to use pandemic weights in CPI baskets While this will converge the relative inflationspread in the chart above we note that the spread historically leads EURUSD by five months - so thisshouldnt alter the near-term trajectory
Whats more in the bigger picture we still feel the outlook for US inflation is more upbeat than that for theEA - for instance as relative output gaps look quite dierent Gauging from output gaps + financial fiscaland vaccine impulses the US gap ought to closer much quicker than the EAs suggesting higher inflationpressures earlier in the US than in the EA
e-marketsnordeacomarticle63454fx-weekly-blanchard-and-the-risk-of-overheating
Chart 6 Relative output gaps suggests more inflation earlier in the US
ECBs FX rhetoric has been all over the place recently and despite that - or owing to that - the trade-weighted EUR is now the weakest since November and also somewhat weaker than ECB assumed inDecember This is worth bearing in mind since the EURUSD is understating the weakness of the EUR whichshould be somewhat helpful for ECB hawks
e-marketsnordeacomarticle63454fx-weekly-blanchard-and-the-risk-of-overheating
Chart 7 The trade-weighted EUR is weaker than EURUSD indicates
For all that we would argue that while the downward-shifting dollar smile andor reignited double-deficitworries will eventually cap the downside in the EURUSD but for now we prefer to trade the pair with a sell-on-rally mindset for nimble players and we accordingly also take a nice profit in the short in USDCNY andUSDINR from the autumn of 2020
SEK Now when I say Who da mastah you say Ingrsquoves
For some reason we came to think of The Last Dragon - the epic 80s movie - when we started to ponder whatRiksbanks Ingves could have up his Kung-Fu sleeves at the next meeting or two We must remember that heis THE mastah at creating market volatility and he doesnt care about it Indeed ever since he was namedhead monk at the dark temple of the monetary arts at Brunkebergstorg the SEK has shown greater volatilityon days with a monetary policy decision - a pattern not at all evident in for instance the US
e-marketsnordeacomarticle63454fx-weekly-blanchard-and-the-risk-of-overheating
Chart 8 Ingves likes to create vol will he do it once again
Our main scenario for the Riksbanks February meeting is an unchanged policy rate rate path and QEprogram We expect QE details for Q2 2021 to indicate unchanged distribution of purchases over assettypes However we see a greater likelihood for a dovish surprise than a hawkish one which could be goodnews Swedish SGB (10y5y) flatteners (vs Germany) Read more about our SEK FI recommendations hereAnd whats more the Riksbankrsquos rate path might indicate a modest likelihood of rate cut as several boardmembers continue to mention this possibility That could be one (arguably cost-less in the Riksbankrsquos eyesway to proactively try to counter further SEK gains Receiving March-22 FRAs as a cheap lottery ticket alsocontinue to look interesting in our view
e-marketsnordeacomarticle63454fx-weekly-blanchard-and-the-risk-of-overheating
Chart 9 Higher Swedish inflation suggests SEK will still strengthen in H1 2021
In the end mastah Ingves is unlikely to be successful in countering the jabs (SEK purchases) by LeeroyJenkins (the FX market) but he might be able to cause some short-term bruising
NOK markets are still trading under the influence of tight structural liquidity most dramatically in Norwaywith periods of very elevated fixings and even negative structural liquidity before monetary policy operationsThe NOK FX swaps have been volatile this week and have started to hint of slightly higher NIBOR fixingstoward the end of the week The liquidity outlook is still very tight in the coming months but it could be thatthe most desperate Treasuries have already covered their funding needs The domestic component of NIBORwill probably remain elevated for a while yet also more than priced On the other hand USD money marketrates could move lower due to the above-mentioned liquidity influx in USD which could spill over to NIBOR asit is a swapped USD fixing per definition
Our running track-record (updated monthly here) is always attached here
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e-marketsnordeacomarticle63454fx-weekly-blanchard-and-the-risk-of-overheating
Andreas Steno LarsenChief Global FXFI Strategistandreasstenolarsennordeacom+45 55 46 72 29
Martin EnlundGlobal Chief FX StrategistMartinEnlundnordeacom
e-marketsnordeacomarticle63454fx-weekly-blanchard-and-the-risk-of-overheating
Chart 1 The debt to issuance per quarters depends on the size of Biden-nomics
We still expect a watered down version of the Biden plan to pass congress ($900-1200bn) and given thenew strategy from the Yellen led US Treasury debt will be issued WHEN the plan comes into fruition and notbefore as was the case in 2020 The US Treasury now also finally intends to spend the money on the TGAaccount at the Fed which means that banks will be on the receiving end of that liquidity when the TGA istaken lower (USD liquidity is coming) Excess liquidity in the banking system will accordingly increase andif we includeassume a continued 120Bs a month in QE purchases by the Fed the total liquidity increase inthe first half of 2021 could end up around 16-18trn ndash (almost) without historical precedence This should begood news for US assets vs the rest of the world
e-marketsnordeacomarticle63454fx-weekly-blanchard-and-the-risk-of-overheating
Chart 2 The Treasury General Account will finally be taken lower and commercial bankswill receive the liquidity
There is clearly a possibility of a melt-up in US assets with cascades of liquidity arriving alongside a strongfiscal momentum which could lead to a ldquoketchup eectrdquo in core inflation during the second quarter of thisyear SMEs have started to hint of decade-high price plans output prices from China are rising and both ISMsurveys hint of a large price pressure It is a fairly free lunch to talk about average-inflation-targeting wheninflation runs far below the target but will it be as straight-forward to keep referring to the AIT-regime oncecore inflation starts to run above target in Q2
We see a clear risk that Powell and the Fed starts sounding a bit like Summers and Blanchard as soon asinflation is actually running above target which could lead to an internal Fed debate on the appropriatebalance sheet policy already before summer It is after all much easier to talk about average inflationtargeting as long as you are not tested on actual inflation that runs hotter than the target
e-marketsnordeacomarticle63454fx-weekly-blanchard-and-the-risk-of-overheating
Chart 3 Inflation to run substantially above target in Q2
EURUSD initially declined below 12050 this week makring a break of the neckling of a HampS formation(shoulder from early December and head from early January) This break would suggest a target of 11750before the technicals have played out fully Whatrsquos more the move came around the time of year whenvarious popular trades of the year often tend to unwind While the pair rebounded following a lacklustrenonfarm payrolls report it ran out of steam at that same neckline ndash now possibly ian important resistance
e-marketsnordeacomarticle63454fx-weekly-blanchard-and-the-risk-of-overheating
Chart 4 EURUSD broke down below 12050 and briefly traded below 120
Over the past week we also updated our dollar-o-meter in which we argued that i) relative growth ii) relativeinflation iii) relative central bank policy all seem to favour the USD for now Only one of the four variablesin the -meter politics suggests the dollar is a sell (because of lower perceived economic-political risks andbecause of Biden)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle63454fx-weekly-blanchard-and-the-risk-of-overheating
Chart 5 EURUSD tends to follow relative inflation
While EA inflation topped expectations majestically in January it was driven by what economists shouldprobably have been able to foresee postponed winter sales a reversal of sales taxes in Germany andEurostats decision to use pandemic weights in CPI baskets While this will converge the relative inflationspread in the chart above we note that the spread historically leads EURUSD by five months - so thisshouldnt alter the near-term trajectory
Whats more in the bigger picture we still feel the outlook for US inflation is more upbeat than that for theEA - for instance as relative output gaps look quite dierent Gauging from output gaps + financial fiscaland vaccine impulses the US gap ought to closer much quicker than the EAs suggesting higher inflationpressures earlier in the US than in the EA
e-marketsnordeacomarticle63454fx-weekly-blanchard-and-the-risk-of-overheating
Chart 6 Relative output gaps suggests more inflation earlier in the US
ECBs FX rhetoric has been all over the place recently and despite that - or owing to that - the trade-weighted EUR is now the weakest since November and also somewhat weaker than ECB assumed inDecember This is worth bearing in mind since the EURUSD is understating the weakness of the EUR whichshould be somewhat helpful for ECB hawks
e-marketsnordeacomarticle63454fx-weekly-blanchard-and-the-risk-of-overheating
Chart 7 The trade-weighted EUR is weaker than EURUSD indicates
For all that we would argue that while the downward-shifting dollar smile andor reignited double-deficitworries will eventually cap the downside in the EURUSD but for now we prefer to trade the pair with a sell-on-rally mindset for nimble players and we accordingly also take a nice profit in the short in USDCNY andUSDINR from the autumn of 2020
SEK Now when I say Who da mastah you say Ingrsquoves
For some reason we came to think of The Last Dragon - the epic 80s movie - when we started to ponder whatRiksbanks Ingves could have up his Kung-Fu sleeves at the next meeting or two We must remember that heis THE mastah at creating market volatility and he doesnt care about it Indeed ever since he was namedhead monk at the dark temple of the monetary arts at Brunkebergstorg the SEK has shown greater volatilityon days with a monetary policy decision - a pattern not at all evident in for instance the US
e-marketsnordeacomarticle63454fx-weekly-blanchard-and-the-risk-of-overheating
Chart 8 Ingves likes to create vol will he do it once again
Our main scenario for the Riksbanks February meeting is an unchanged policy rate rate path and QEprogram We expect QE details for Q2 2021 to indicate unchanged distribution of purchases over assettypes However we see a greater likelihood for a dovish surprise than a hawkish one which could be goodnews Swedish SGB (10y5y) flatteners (vs Germany) Read more about our SEK FI recommendations hereAnd whats more the Riksbankrsquos rate path might indicate a modest likelihood of rate cut as several boardmembers continue to mention this possibility That could be one (arguably cost-less in the Riksbankrsquos eyesway to proactively try to counter further SEK gains Receiving March-22 FRAs as a cheap lottery ticket alsocontinue to look interesting in our view
e-marketsnordeacomarticle63454fx-weekly-blanchard-and-the-risk-of-overheating
Chart 9 Higher Swedish inflation suggests SEK will still strengthen in H1 2021
In the end mastah Ingves is unlikely to be successful in countering the jabs (SEK purchases) by LeeroyJenkins (the FX market) but he might be able to cause some short-term bruising
NOK markets are still trading under the influence of tight structural liquidity most dramatically in Norwaywith periods of very elevated fixings and even negative structural liquidity before monetary policy operationsThe NOK FX swaps have been volatile this week and have started to hint of slightly higher NIBOR fixingstoward the end of the week The liquidity outlook is still very tight in the coming months but it could be thatthe most desperate Treasuries have already covered their funding needs The domestic component of NIBORwill probably remain elevated for a while yet also more than priced On the other hand USD money marketrates could move lower due to the above-mentioned liquidity influx in USD which could spill over to NIBOR asit is a swapped USD fixing per definition
Our running track-record (updated monthly here) is always attached here
Previous FX weeklies
FX weekly China Joe vs Mango Mussolini (24 Jan)
FX weekly Another one Bidens the dust (17 Jan)
FX weekly Peak bullishness (10 Jan)
FX weekly The year of the Ox (03 Jan)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle63454fx-weekly-blanchard-and-the-risk-of-overheating
FX weekly How will consensus be wrongfooted in 2021 (20 Dec)
FX weekly There are decades where nothing happens (13 Dec)
FX weekly Globalization back on the menu (6 Dec)
FX weekly Letrsquos hope that money printers are running on windmills (29 Nov)
FX weekly Mnuchin right or wrong (22 Nov)
FX weekly Politics is like sausages you dont want to watch either being made (15 Nov)
FX weekly Biden is not that reflationary (08 Nov)
FX weekly Are markets dumb or not (01 Nov)
FX weekly Lockdowners on Parade (25 Oct)
FX weekly Buy Green before Lagarde(18 Oct)
FX weekly The one on MMT (11 Oct)
FX weekly Corona Trump (04 Oct)
FX weekly Grin and Barrett (27 Sep)
FX weekly AIT is maybe not as dovish as we thought (20 Sep)
FX weekly AIT means easier financial conditions (13 Sep)
FX weekly Good luck Powell (23 Aug)
middotFX weekly USD to be put in the Jackson Hole (16 Aug)
middotFX weekly Peoples QE (09 Aug)
middotFX weekly USD will remain the No1 reserve currency (02 Aug)
middotFX weekly Kanye vs Trump vs Biden (05 Jul)
middotFX weekly Europe vs US 1-0 (28 Jun)
middotFX weekly Should we fear a second lock-down (21 Jun)
middotFX weekly USD liquidity is not going to be as ample (14 Jun)
middotFX weekly EURphoria and panic-YCC (07 Jun)
middotFX weekly An EU solution to a EUR problem (31 May)
middotFX weekly Time to buy a EUR lottery ticket (24 May)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle63454fx-weekly-blanchard-and-the-risk-of-overheating
middotFX weekly The trade deal was always born to die (17 May)
middotFX weekly How to trade NIRP coming to America (10 May)
middotFX weekly The rise of the Virolocracy (03 May)
middotFX weekly The EUR-tyranny of the minority (27 Apr)
middotFX weekly How to glue together the EUR-ship again (20 Apr)
middotFX weekly The flipside of Oprahnomics(13 Apr)
middotFX weekly USD needs to weaken or else Plaza Accord 20 is likely (06 Apr)
middotFX weekly Spraying the world with money instead of with disinfectant (29 Mar)
middotFX weekly There will be a crisis and new instruments will be created (22 Mar)
middotFX weekly Sweden and UK are the odd ones out (15 Mar)
middotFX weekly A big bucket of bummerballs (08 Mar)
middotFX weekly A preppers guide to trading Corona (01 Mar)
middotFX weekly Get ready for YCC (23 Feb)
middotFX weekly Mini Mike and the Mechanics (16 Feb)
middotFX weekly Feds balance sheet may need to grow more (09 Feb)
middotFX weekly Did the Virus originate in Norway (02 Feb)
middotFX weekly Mnuchin to trick Fed into more POMO (26 Jan)
middotFX weekly A green bubble to save the world (19 Jan)
middotFX weekly Bad news for NIRP-haters (12 Jan)
middotFX weekly Coupon-bearing securities smell of QE4 (05 Jan)
middotFX weekly The Riksbank is not a leading indicator of the ECB (22 Dec)
middotFX weekly Merry Christmas from the POTUS (15 Dec)
middotFX weekly Why this is not 20152016 all over again (08 Dec)
middotFX weekly Waiting for Godot (01 Dec)
middotFX weekly Get ready for Climate QE 2 (24 Nov)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle63454fx-weekly-blanchard-and-the-risk-of-overheating
middotFX weekly FX space yet to corroborate the reflationistas (17 Nov)
middotFX weekly Dont extrapolate the 60 Bs (10 Nov)
middotFX weekly 99 problems but the NOK aint one (3 Nov)
middotFX weekly Something big just happened (27 Oct)
middotFX weekly The QE train to nowhere (20 Oct)
middotFX weekly The 50 Brsquos caused the downturn so what about the 60 Brsquos (13 Oct)
middotFX weekly Is everything falling apart (6 Oct)
middotFX weekly A new path for USD liquidity (29 Sep)
middotFX weekly Soft QE in October (22 Sep)
middotFX weekly Welcome to the birthday party (15 Sep)
middotFX weekly An early santa rally (08 Sep)
middotFX weekly Can you smell the Sushi yet (01 Sep)
middotFX weekly Mo taris mo cuts but whorsquos Sho Nu (25 Aug)
middotFX weekly First havens then sell confetti (18 Aug)
middotFX weekly The liquidity doom loop (11 Aug)
middotFX weekly Buy Treasuries Short Scandis Wear Diamonds (04 Aug)
middotFX weekly Lagarde better practice her Rhine dancing (28 Jul)
middotFX weekly Go big or go home (21 Jul)
middotFX weekly The liquidity plot thickens (14 Jul)
middotFX weekly e-scooters are silly (07Jul)
middotFX weekly One is exausted the other is nuts(30 Jun)
middotFX weekly Time to bring in Steven Seagal 2 (23 Jun)
middotFX weekly Get ready for climate QE (16 Jun)
middotFX weekly Cut cut cut cut (09 Jun)
middotFX weekly The absolute madman (02 Jun)
middotFX weekly Will Xi be Nikithared (26 May)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle63454fx-weekly-blanchard-and-the-risk-of-overheating
middotFX weekly Trade war ping pong (19 May)
middotFX weekly A stairway to heaven for Krona shorts (12 May)
middotFX weekly Mnuchin to bail-out Fed (05 May)
middotFX weekly 3 reasons why the USD has been resurgent (28 Apr)
middotFX weekly No doomsday (yet) (21 Apr)
middotFX weekly In EUR we trust (14 Apr)
middotFX weekly Crouching Tiger Hidden Inflation Dragon (07 Apr)
middotFX weekly There is a smell of 2016 in the air (31 Mar)
middotFX weekly Dear Mr Powell (24 Mar)
middotFX weekly The devils advocate (17 Mar)
middotFX weekly Mario Bla-blaghi (10 Mar)
middotFX weekly Chinese reflation (3 Mar)
middotFX weekly QT cannot run forever (24 Feb)
middotFX weekly The USD is now in Trumps hands (17 Feb)
middotFX weekly Time to care about Euro area politics again (10 Feb)
middotFX weekly Is Powell turning into a MAGA-man (03 Feb)
middotFX weekly On climate angst and fake news (27 Jan)
middotFX weekly The Mnuchin bailout (20 Jan)
middotFX weekly FX weekly Cause Im a flip-flopper yes I am (13 Jan)
middotFX weekly FX weekly Treasury vs Fed (06 Jan)
middotFX weekly Top 4 FXMM trades for Q1-2019 (01 Jan)
middotFX weekly On liquidity witches and warlocks (23 Dec)
middotFX weekly Qui Navance pas recule (16 Dec)
middotFX weekly Burnin down the house (9 Dec)
middotFX weekly In Gut we Trust (2 Dec)
middotFX weekly Pikachu aint no hobbit (25 Nov)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle63454fx-weekly-blanchard-and-the-risk-of-overheating
middotFX weekly Powell pondering pausing (18 Nov)
middotFX weekly Another SOMA-test of 113 (11 Nov)
middotFX weekly 113 will hold unless the Republicans keep both chambers (04 Nov)
middotFX weekly HIA SOMA and REBA-days (28 Oct)
middotFX weekly The debt ceiling is a USD ceiling (21 Oct)
middotFX weekly Volatility makes odd bedfellows (14 Oct)
middotFX weekly No Di-Maionnaise for your EURs (yet) (7 Oct)
middotFX weekly Along came year-end (30 Sep)
middotFX weekly Twin deficit scare 2 (23 Sep)
middotFX weekly The Pope of Nope has spoken (16 Sep)
middotFX weekly Who wants to impeach a +60 ISM president (09 Sep)
middotFX weekly It is time to go long Scandis again (02 Sep)
middotFX weekly The Conte-Trump alliance (26 Aug)
middotFX weekly Fat-burning shorts (19 Aug)
middotFX weekly Time to call in Steven Seagal(12 Aug)
middotFX weekly Is the cyclical momentum over-priced (05 Aug)
middotFX weekly How to trade a cease-fire (29 Jul)
middotFX weekly Whats that curve (22 Jul)
middotFX weekly The China Factor (15 Jul)
middotFX weekly Take a short trade war breather (08 Jul)
middotFX weekly Trump will never 238 (01 Jul)
middotFX weekly The USD is the best carry currency in the world (24 Jun)
middotFX weekly Dollar to provide headwinds for earning estimates (17 Jun)
middotFX weekly Fire and fury risks for the USD (10 Jun)
middotFX weekly Its not only Italy (03 Jun)
middotFX weekly The Sumo SOMA days (27 May)
middotFX weekly EM wont be sprinting if the Fed is unprinting (20 May)e-marketsnordeacomarticle63454fx-weekly-blanchard-and-the-risk-of-overheating
middotFX weekly The two final nails in the dovish FOMC-con (13 May)
middotFX weekly Is there anything left in the USD bull-run (06 May)
middotFX weekly Dragon Energy (29 Apr)
middotFX weekly Relative curvature is the new king of FX (22 Apr)
middotFX weekly Why is EURUSD not trading lower (15 Apr)
middotFX weekly Like watching paint dry they said (08 Apr)
middotFX weekly The list of potential USD-positives is getting longer (01 Apr)
middotFX weekly 2 reasons why EURUSD has decoupled from rates spreads (25 Mar)
middotFX weekly Time to buy a USD lottery ticket (18 Mar)
middotFX weekly Taxation mirror on the wall who is the fairest of them all (11 Mar)
middotFX weekly Trumps game of chicken (04 Mar)
middotFX weekly Will the market neglect the clutch of canaries (25 Feb)
middotFX weekly Is the correlation break-down driven by FX hedges (18 Feb)
middotFX weekly The liquidity tide is ebbing (11 Feb)
middotFX weekly Hawkish spectacles (04 Feb)
middotFX weekly Who will stop EURUSD from moving higher (28 Jan)
middotFX weekly Did the Democrats dent the Dollar (21 Jan)
middotFX weekly Is 125 the new 120 (14 Jan)
middotFX weekly The euphoria rises (07 Jan)
middotFX weekly Paging Dr Pangloss (01 Jan)
middotFX weekly The R-star of Bethlehem (24 Dec)
middotFX weekly A numbers game (17 Dec)
middotFX weekly The year-end liquidty shrink (10 Dec)
middotFX weekly Three reasons why EURUSD isnt trading lower (03 Dec)
middotFX weekly Which currencies to sell if the housing downturn continues (26 Nov)
middotFX weekly The global industrial cycle is set to weaken (19 Nov)
middotFX weekly Is high-yield a canary in the global coal mine (12 Nov)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle63454fx-weekly-blanchard-and-the-risk-of-overheating
middotFX weekly Is this the end of the inflation convergence trade in EURUSD (5 Nov)
middotFX weekly Was that it for the EUR bulls (29 Oct)
middotFX weekly Hawks in opposition doves in charge (22 Oct)
middot FX weeklyContinued convergence or re-divergence(15 Oct)
middotFX weekly Thingsdont matter until they do(08 Oct)
middotFX weekly October seasonality is strong (01 Oct)
middotFX weekly ldquoIs 120 the new 115rdquo(24 Sep)
middot FX weekly Honey I shrunk the balance sheet(17 Sep)
middot FX weekly ldquoUSD liquidity will turn scarcer but whenrdquo (10 Sep)
middot FX weekly ldquoStrong currencies and inflationrdquo(3 Sep)
middot FX weekly ldquoUSD in the (Jackson) holerdquo (27 Aug)
middot FX weekly ldquoQ4 is the USD quarterrdquo(20 Aug)
middot FX weekly ldquoIn the year 2525rdquo(13 Aug)
middot FX weekly ldquoEURUSD ceiling or debt ceilingrdquo(6 Aug)
middot FX weeklyldquoElevator up stairs down ldquo(30 Jul)
middot FX weeklyTrump ldquospicesrdquo up EURUSD(23 Jul)
middot FX weeklyFlip-flop(16 Jul)
middot FX weeklyConsolidation time(9 Jul)
middot FX weeklyHawks R Us(2 Jul)
middot FX weeklyAnother lowflation week(25 Jun)
middot FX weeklyNo Fed put(18 Jun)
middot FX weeklyA bouncy dollar(11 Jun)
middot FX weeklyHeating up(4 Jun)
middot FX weeklySummertime sadness(28 May)
middot FX weeklySpecial counsel lessens Trumpbulence while OPEC looms(21 May)
middot FX weeklyAre China worries old hat(14 May)
middot FX weeklyInflation weekhellip(7 May)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle63454fx-weekly-blanchard-and-the-risk-of-overheating
Andreas Steno LarsenChief Global FXFI Strategistandreasstenolarsennordeacom+45 55 46 72 29
Martin EnlundGlobal Chief FX StrategistMartinEnlundnordeacom
e-marketsnordeacomarticle63454fx-weekly-blanchard-and-the-risk-of-overheating
Chart 2 The Treasury General Account will finally be taken lower and commercial bankswill receive the liquidity
There is clearly a possibility of a melt-up in US assets with cascades of liquidity arriving alongside a strongfiscal momentum which could lead to a ldquoketchup eectrdquo in core inflation during the second quarter of thisyear SMEs have started to hint of decade-high price plans output prices from China are rising and both ISMsurveys hint of a large price pressure It is a fairly free lunch to talk about average-inflation-targeting wheninflation runs far below the target but will it be as straight-forward to keep referring to the AIT-regime oncecore inflation starts to run above target in Q2
We see a clear risk that Powell and the Fed starts sounding a bit like Summers and Blanchard as soon asinflation is actually running above target which could lead to an internal Fed debate on the appropriatebalance sheet policy already before summer It is after all much easier to talk about average inflationtargeting as long as you are not tested on actual inflation that runs hotter than the target
e-marketsnordeacomarticle63454fx-weekly-blanchard-and-the-risk-of-overheating
Chart 3 Inflation to run substantially above target in Q2
EURUSD initially declined below 12050 this week makring a break of the neckling of a HampS formation(shoulder from early December and head from early January) This break would suggest a target of 11750before the technicals have played out fully Whatrsquos more the move came around the time of year whenvarious popular trades of the year often tend to unwind While the pair rebounded following a lacklustrenonfarm payrolls report it ran out of steam at that same neckline ndash now possibly ian important resistance
e-marketsnordeacomarticle63454fx-weekly-blanchard-and-the-risk-of-overheating
Chart 4 EURUSD broke down below 12050 and briefly traded below 120
Over the past week we also updated our dollar-o-meter in which we argued that i) relative growth ii) relativeinflation iii) relative central bank policy all seem to favour the USD for now Only one of the four variablesin the -meter politics suggests the dollar is a sell (because of lower perceived economic-political risks andbecause of Biden)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle63454fx-weekly-blanchard-and-the-risk-of-overheating
Chart 5 EURUSD tends to follow relative inflation
While EA inflation topped expectations majestically in January it was driven by what economists shouldprobably have been able to foresee postponed winter sales a reversal of sales taxes in Germany andEurostats decision to use pandemic weights in CPI baskets While this will converge the relative inflationspread in the chart above we note that the spread historically leads EURUSD by five months - so thisshouldnt alter the near-term trajectory
Whats more in the bigger picture we still feel the outlook for US inflation is more upbeat than that for theEA - for instance as relative output gaps look quite dierent Gauging from output gaps + financial fiscaland vaccine impulses the US gap ought to closer much quicker than the EAs suggesting higher inflationpressures earlier in the US than in the EA
e-marketsnordeacomarticle63454fx-weekly-blanchard-and-the-risk-of-overheating
Chart 6 Relative output gaps suggests more inflation earlier in the US
ECBs FX rhetoric has been all over the place recently and despite that - or owing to that - the trade-weighted EUR is now the weakest since November and also somewhat weaker than ECB assumed inDecember This is worth bearing in mind since the EURUSD is understating the weakness of the EUR whichshould be somewhat helpful for ECB hawks
e-marketsnordeacomarticle63454fx-weekly-blanchard-and-the-risk-of-overheating
Chart 7 The trade-weighted EUR is weaker than EURUSD indicates
For all that we would argue that while the downward-shifting dollar smile andor reignited double-deficitworries will eventually cap the downside in the EURUSD but for now we prefer to trade the pair with a sell-on-rally mindset for nimble players and we accordingly also take a nice profit in the short in USDCNY andUSDINR from the autumn of 2020
SEK Now when I say Who da mastah you say Ingrsquoves
For some reason we came to think of The Last Dragon - the epic 80s movie - when we started to ponder whatRiksbanks Ingves could have up his Kung-Fu sleeves at the next meeting or two We must remember that heis THE mastah at creating market volatility and he doesnt care about it Indeed ever since he was namedhead monk at the dark temple of the monetary arts at Brunkebergstorg the SEK has shown greater volatilityon days with a monetary policy decision - a pattern not at all evident in for instance the US
e-marketsnordeacomarticle63454fx-weekly-blanchard-and-the-risk-of-overheating
Chart 8 Ingves likes to create vol will he do it once again
Our main scenario for the Riksbanks February meeting is an unchanged policy rate rate path and QEprogram We expect QE details for Q2 2021 to indicate unchanged distribution of purchases over assettypes However we see a greater likelihood for a dovish surprise than a hawkish one which could be goodnews Swedish SGB (10y5y) flatteners (vs Germany) Read more about our SEK FI recommendations hereAnd whats more the Riksbankrsquos rate path might indicate a modest likelihood of rate cut as several boardmembers continue to mention this possibility That could be one (arguably cost-less in the Riksbankrsquos eyesway to proactively try to counter further SEK gains Receiving March-22 FRAs as a cheap lottery ticket alsocontinue to look interesting in our view
e-marketsnordeacomarticle63454fx-weekly-blanchard-and-the-risk-of-overheating
Chart 9 Higher Swedish inflation suggests SEK will still strengthen in H1 2021
In the end mastah Ingves is unlikely to be successful in countering the jabs (SEK purchases) by LeeroyJenkins (the FX market) but he might be able to cause some short-term bruising
NOK markets are still trading under the influence of tight structural liquidity most dramatically in Norwaywith periods of very elevated fixings and even negative structural liquidity before monetary policy operationsThe NOK FX swaps have been volatile this week and have started to hint of slightly higher NIBOR fixingstoward the end of the week The liquidity outlook is still very tight in the coming months but it could be thatthe most desperate Treasuries have already covered their funding needs The domestic component of NIBORwill probably remain elevated for a while yet also more than priced On the other hand USD money marketrates could move lower due to the above-mentioned liquidity influx in USD which could spill over to NIBOR asit is a swapped USD fixing per definition
Our running track-record (updated monthly here) is always attached here
Previous FX weeklies
FX weekly China Joe vs Mango Mussolini (24 Jan)
FX weekly Another one Bidens the dust (17 Jan)
FX weekly Peak bullishness (10 Jan)
FX weekly The year of the Ox (03 Jan)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle63454fx-weekly-blanchard-and-the-risk-of-overheating
FX weekly How will consensus be wrongfooted in 2021 (20 Dec)
FX weekly There are decades where nothing happens (13 Dec)
FX weekly Globalization back on the menu (6 Dec)
FX weekly Letrsquos hope that money printers are running on windmills (29 Nov)
FX weekly Mnuchin right or wrong (22 Nov)
FX weekly Politics is like sausages you dont want to watch either being made (15 Nov)
FX weekly Biden is not that reflationary (08 Nov)
FX weekly Are markets dumb or not (01 Nov)
FX weekly Lockdowners on Parade (25 Oct)
FX weekly Buy Green before Lagarde(18 Oct)
FX weekly The one on MMT (11 Oct)
FX weekly Corona Trump (04 Oct)
FX weekly Grin and Barrett (27 Sep)
FX weekly AIT is maybe not as dovish as we thought (20 Sep)
FX weekly AIT means easier financial conditions (13 Sep)
FX weekly Good luck Powell (23 Aug)
middotFX weekly USD to be put in the Jackson Hole (16 Aug)
middotFX weekly Peoples QE (09 Aug)
middotFX weekly USD will remain the No1 reserve currency (02 Aug)
middotFX weekly Kanye vs Trump vs Biden (05 Jul)
middotFX weekly Europe vs US 1-0 (28 Jun)
middotFX weekly Should we fear a second lock-down (21 Jun)
middotFX weekly USD liquidity is not going to be as ample (14 Jun)
middotFX weekly EURphoria and panic-YCC (07 Jun)
middotFX weekly An EU solution to a EUR problem (31 May)
middotFX weekly Time to buy a EUR lottery ticket (24 May)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle63454fx-weekly-blanchard-and-the-risk-of-overheating
middotFX weekly The trade deal was always born to die (17 May)
middotFX weekly How to trade NIRP coming to America (10 May)
middotFX weekly The rise of the Virolocracy (03 May)
middotFX weekly The EUR-tyranny of the minority (27 Apr)
middotFX weekly How to glue together the EUR-ship again (20 Apr)
middotFX weekly The flipside of Oprahnomics(13 Apr)
middotFX weekly USD needs to weaken or else Plaza Accord 20 is likely (06 Apr)
middotFX weekly Spraying the world with money instead of with disinfectant (29 Mar)
middotFX weekly There will be a crisis and new instruments will be created (22 Mar)
middotFX weekly Sweden and UK are the odd ones out (15 Mar)
middotFX weekly A big bucket of bummerballs (08 Mar)
middotFX weekly A preppers guide to trading Corona (01 Mar)
middotFX weekly Get ready for YCC (23 Feb)
middotFX weekly Mini Mike and the Mechanics (16 Feb)
middotFX weekly Feds balance sheet may need to grow more (09 Feb)
middotFX weekly Did the Virus originate in Norway (02 Feb)
middotFX weekly Mnuchin to trick Fed into more POMO (26 Jan)
middotFX weekly A green bubble to save the world (19 Jan)
middotFX weekly Bad news for NIRP-haters (12 Jan)
middotFX weekly Coupon-bearing securities smell of QE4 (05 Jan)
middotFX weekly The Riksbank is not a leading indicator of the ECB (22 Dec)
middotFX weekly Merry Christmas from the POTUS (15 Dec)
middotFX weekly Why this is not 20152016 all over again (08 Dec)
middotFX weekly Waiting for Godot (01 Dec)
middotFX weekly Get ready for Climate QE 2 (24 Nov)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle63454fx-weekly-blanchard-and-the-risk-of-overheating
middotFX weekly FX space yet to corroborate the reflationistas (17 Nov)
middotFX weekly Dont extrapolate the 60 Bs (10 Nov)
middotFX weekly 99 problems but the NOK aint one (3 Nov)
middotFX weekly Something big just happened (27 Oct)
middotFX weekly The QE train to nowhere (20 Oct)
middotFX weekly The 50 Brsquos caused the downturn so what about the 60 Brsquos (13 Oct)
middotFX weekly Is everything falling apart (6 Oct)
middotFX weekly A new path for USD liquidity (29 Sep)
middotFX weekly Soft QE in October (22 Sep)
middotFX weekly Welcome to the birthday party (15 Sep)
middotFX weekly An early santa rally (08 Sep)
middotFX weekly Can you smell the Sushi yet (01 Sep)
middotFX weekly Mo taris mo cuts but whorsquos Sho Nu (25 Aug)
middotFX weekly First havens then sell confetti (18 Aug)
middotFX weekly The liquidity doom loop (11 Aug)
middotFX weekly Buy Treasuries Short Scandis Wear Diamonds (04 Aug)
middotFX weekly Lagarde better practice her Rhine dancing (28 Jul)
middotFX weekly Go big or go home (21 Jul)
middotFX weekly The liquidity plot thickens (14 Jul)
middotFX weekly e-scooters are silly (07Jul)
middotFX weekly One is exausted the other is nuts(30 Jun)
middotFX weekly Time to bring in Steven Seagal 2 (23 Jun)
middotFX weekly Get ready for climate QE (16 Jun)
middotFX weekly Cut cut cut cut (09 Jun)
middotFX weekly The absolute madman (02 Jun)
middotFX weekly Will Xi be Nikithared (26 May)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle63454fx-weekly-blanchard-and-the-risk-of-overheating
middotFX weekly Trade war ping pong (19 May)
middotFX weekly A stairway to heaven for Krona shorts (12 May)
middotFX weekly Mnuchin to bail-out Fed (05 May)
middotFX weekly 3 reasons why the USD has been resurgent (28 Apr)
middotFX weekly No doomsday (yet) (21 Apr)
middotFX weekly In EUR we trust (14 Apr)
middotFX weekly Crouching Tiger Hidden Inflation Dragon (07 Apr)
middotFX weekly There is a smell of 2016 in the air (31 Mar)
middotFX weekly Dear Mr Powell (24 Mar)
middotFX weekly The devils advocate (17 Mar)
middotFX weekly Mario Bla-blaghi (10 Mar)
middotFX weekly Chinese reflation (3 Mar)
middotFX weekly QT cannot run forever (24 Feb)
middotFX weekly The USD is now in Trumps hands (17 Feb)
middotFX weekly Time to care about Euro area politics again (10 Feb)
middotFX weekly Is Powell turning into a MAGA-man (03 Feb)
middotFX weekly On climate angst and fake news (27 Jan)
middotFX weekly The Mnuchin bailout (20 Jan)
middotFX weekly FX weekly Cause Im a flip-flopper yes I am (13 Jan)
middotFX weekly FX weekly Treasury vs Fed (06 Jan)
middotFX weekly Top 4 FXMM trades for Q1-2019 (01 Jan)
middotFX weekly On liquidity witches and warlocks (23 Dec)
middotFX weekly Qui Navance pas recule (16 Dec)
middotFX weekly Burnin down the house (9 Dec)
middotFX weekly In Gut we Trust (2 Dec)
middotFX weekly Pikachu aint no hobbit (25 Nov)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle63454fx-weekly-blanchard-and-the-risk-of-overheating
middotFX weekly Powell pondering pausing (18 Nov)
middotFX weekly Another SOMA-test of 113 (11 Nov)
middotFX weekly 113 will hold unless the Republicans keep both chambers (04 Nov)
middotFX weekly HIA SOMA and REBA-days (28 Oct)
middotFX weekly The debt ceiling is a USD ceiling (21 Oct)
middotFX weekly Volatility makes odd bedfellows (14 Oct)
middotFX weekly No Di-Maionnaise for your EURs (yet) (7 Oct)
middotFX weekly Along came year-end (30 Sep)
middotFX weekly Twin deficit scare 2 (23 Sep)
middotFX weekly The Pope of Nope has spoken (16 Sep)
middotFX weekly Who wants to impeach a +60 ISM president (09 Sep)
middotFX weekly It is time to go long Scandis again (02 Sep)
middotFX weekly The Conte-Trump alliance (26 Aug)
middotFX weekly Fat-burning shorts (19 Aug)
middotFX weekly Time to call in Steven Seagal(12 Aug)
middotFX weekly Is the cyclical momentum over-priced (05 Aug)
middotFX weekly How to trade a cease-fire (29 Jul)
middotFX weekly Whats that curve (22 Jul)
middotFX weekly The China Factor (15 Jul)
middotFX weekly Take a short trade war breather (08 Jul)
middotFX weekly Trump will never 238 (01 Jul)
middotFX weekly The USD is the best carry currency in the world (24 Jun)
middotFX weekly Dollar to provide headwinds for earning estimates (17 Jun)
middotFX weekly Fire and fury risks for the USD (10 Jun)
middotFX weekly Its not only Italy (03 Jun)
middotFX weekly The Sumo SOMA days (27 May)
middotFX weekly EM wont be sprinting if the Fed is unprinting (20 May)e-marketsnordeacomarticle63454fx-weekly-blanchard-and-the-risk-of-overheating
middotFX weekly The two final nails in the dovish FOMC-con (13 May)
middotFX weekly Is there anything left in the USD bull-run (06 May)
middotFX weekly Dragon Energy (29 Apr)
middotFX weekly Relative curvature is the new king of FX (22 Apr)
middotFX weekly Why is EURUSD not trading lower (15 Apr)
middotFX weekly Like watching paint dry they said (08 Apr)
middotFX weekly The list of potential USD-positives is getting longer (01 Apr)
middotFX weekly 2 reasons why EURUSD has decoupled from rates spreads (25 Mar)
middotFX weekly Time to buy a USD lottery ticket (18 Mar)
middotFX weekly Taxation mirror on the wall who is the fairest of them all (11 Mar)
middotFX weekly Trumps game of chicken (04 Mar)
middotFX weekly Will the market neglect the clutch of canaries (25 Feb)
middotFX weekly Is the correlation break-down driven by FX hedges (18 Feb)
middotFX weekly The liquidity tide is ebbing (11 Feb)
middotFX weekly Hawkish spectacles (04 Feb)
middotFX weekly Who will stop EURUSD from moving higher (28 Jan)
middotFX weekly Did the Democrats dent the Dollar (21 Jan)
middotFX weekly Is 125 the new 120 (14 Jan)
middotFX weekly The euphoria rises (07 Jan)
middotFX weekly Paging Dr Pangloss (01 Jan)
middotFX weekly The R-star of Bethlehem (24 Dec)
middotFX weekly A numbers game (17 Dec)
middotFX weekly The year-end liquidty shrink (10 Dec)
middotFX weekly Three reasons why EURUSD isnt trading lower (03 Dec)
middotFX weekly Which currencies to sell if the housing downturn continues (26 Nov)
middotFX weekly The global industrial cycle is set to weaken (19 Nov)
middotFX weekly Is high-yield a canary in the global coal mine (12 Nov)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle63454fx-weekly-blanchard-and-the-risk-of-overheating
middotFX weekly Is this the end of the inflation convergence trade in EURUSD (5 Nov)
middotFX weekly Was that it for the EUR bulls (29 Oct)
middotFX weekly Hawks in opposition doves in charge (22 Oct)
middot FX weeklyContinued convergence or re-divergence(15 Oct)
middotFX weekly Thingsdont matter until they do(08 Oct)
middotFX weekly October seasonality is strong (01 Oct)
middotFX weekly ldquoIs 120 the new 115rdquo(24 Sep)
middot FX weekly Honey I shrunk the balance sheet(17 Sep)
middot FX weekly ldquoUSD liquidity will turn scarcer but whenrdquo (10 Sep)
middot FX weekly ldquoStrong currencies and inflationrdquo(3 Sep)
middot FX weekly ldquoUSD in the (Jackson) holerdquo (27 Aug)
middot FX weekly ldquoQ4 is the USD quarterrdquo(20 Aug)
middot FX weekly ldquoIn the year 2525rdquo(13 Aug)
middot FX weekly ldquoEURUSD ceiling or debt ceilingrdquo(6 Aug)
middot FX weeklyldquoElevator up stairs down ldquo(30 Jul)
middot FX weeklyTrump ldquospicesrdquo up EURUSD(23 Jul)
middot FX weeklyFlip-flop(16 Jul)
middot FX weeklyConsolidation time(9 Jul)
middot FX weeklyHawks R Us(2 Jul)
middot FX weeklyAnother lowflation week(25 Jun)
middot FX weeklyNo Fed put(18 Jun)
middot FX weeklyA bouncy dollar(11 Jun)
middot FX weeklyHeating up(4 Jun)
middot FX weeklySummertime sadness(28 May)
middot FX weeklySpecial counsel lessens Trumpbulence while OPEC looms(21 May)
middot FX weeklyAre China worries old hat(14 May)
middot FX weeklyInflation weekhellip(7 May)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle63454fx-weekly-blanchard-and-the-risk-of-overheating
Andreas Steno LarsenChief Global FXFI Strategistandreasstenolarsennordeacom+45 55 46 72 29
Martin EnlundGlobal Chief FX StrategistMartinEnlundnordeacom
e-marketsnordeacomarticle63454fx-weekly-blanchard-and-the-risk-of-overheating
Chart 3 Inflation to run substantially above target in Q2
EURUSD initially declined below 12050 this week makring a break of the neckling of a HampS formation(shoulder from early December and head from early January) This break would suggest a target of 11750before the technicals have played out fully Whatrsquos more the move came around the time of year whenvarious popular trades of the year often tend to unwind While the pair rebounded following a lacklustrenonfarm payrolls report it ran out of steam at that same neckline ndash now possibly ian important resistance
e-marketsnordeacomarticle63454fx-weekly-blanchard-and-the-risk-of-overheating
Chart 4 EURUSD broke down below 12050 and briefly traded below 120
Over the past week we also updated our dollar-o-meter in which we argued that i) relative growth ii) relativeinflation iii) relative central bank policy all seem to favour the USD for now Only one of the four variablesin the -meter politics suggests the dollar is a sell (because of lower perceived economic-political risks andbecause of Biden)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle63454fx-weekly-blanchard-and-the-risk-of-overheating
Chart 5 EURUSD tends to follow relative inflation
While EA inflation topped expectations majestically in January it was driven by what economists shouldprobably have been able to foresee postponed winter sales a reversal of sales taxes in Germany andEurostats decision to use pandemic weights in CPI baskets While this will converge the relative inflationspread in the chart above we note that the spread historically leads EURUSD by five months - so thisshouldnt alter the near-term trajectory
Whats more in the bigger picture we still feel the outlook for US inflation is more upbeat than that for theEA - for instance as relative output gaps look quite dierent Gauging from output gaps + financial fiscaland vaccine impulses the US gap ought to closer much quicker than the EAs suggesting higher inflationpressures earlier in the US than in the EA
e-marketsnordeacomarticle63454fx-weekly-blanchard-and-the-risk-of-overheating
Chart 6 Relative output gaps suggests more inflation earlier in the US
ECBs FX rhetoric has been all over the place recently and despite that - or owing to that - the trade-weighted EUR is now the weakest since November and also somewhat weaker than ECB assumed inDecember This is worth bearing in mind since the EURUSD is understating the weakness of the EUR whichshould be somewhat helpful for ECB hawks
e-marketsnordeacomarticle63454fx-weekly-blanchard-and-the-risk-of-overheating
Chart 7 The trade-weighted EUR is weaker than EURUSD indicates
For all that we would argue that while the downward-shifting dollar smile andor reignited double-deficitworries will eventually cap the downside in the EURUSD but for now we prefer to trade the pair with a sell-on-rally mindset for nimble players and we accordingly also take a nice profit in the short in USDCNY andUSDINR from the autumn of 2020
SEK Now when I say Who da mastah you say Ingrsquoves
For some reason we came to think of The Last Dragon - the epic 80s movie - when we started to ponder whatRiksbanks Ingves could have up his Kung-Fu sleeves at the next meeting or two We must remember that heis THE mastah at creating market volatility and he doesnt care about it Indeed ever since he was namedhead monk at the dark temple of the monetary arts at Brunkebergstorg the SEK has shown greater volatilityon days with a monetary policy decision - a pattern not at all evident in for instance the US
e-marketsnordeacomarticle63454fx-weekly-blanchard-and-the-risk-of-overheating
Chart 8 Ingves likes to create vol will he do it once again
Our main scenario for the Riksbanks February meeting is an unchanged policy rate rate path and QEprogram We expect QE details for Q2 2021 to indicate unchanged distribution of purchases over assettypes However we see a greater likelihood for a dovish surprise than a hawkish one which could be goodnews Swedish SGB (10y5y) flatteners (vs Germany) Read more about our SEK FI recommendations hereAnd whats more the Riksbankrsquos rate path might indicate a modest likelihood of rate cut as several boardmembers continue to mention this possibility That could be one (arguably cost-less in the Riksbankrsquos eyesway to proactively try to counter further SEK gains Receiving March-22 FRAs as a cheap lottery ticket alsocontinue to look interesting in our view
e-marketsnordeacomarticle63454fx-weekly-blanchard-and-the-risk-of-overheating
Chart 9 Higher Swedish inflation suggests SEK will still strengthen in H1 2021
In the end mastah Ingves is unlikely to be successful in countering the jabs (SEK purchases) by LeeroyJenkins (the FX market) but he might be able to cause some short-term bruising
NOK markets are still trading under the influence of tight structural liquidity most dramatically in Norwaywith periods of very elevated fixings and even negative structural liquidity before monetary policy operationsThe NOK FX swaps have been volatile this week and have started to hint of slightly higher NIBOR fixingstoward the end of the week The liquidity outlook is still very tight in the coming months but it could be thatthe most desperate Treasuries have already covered their funding needs The domestic component of NIBORwill probably remain elevated for a while yet also more than priced On the other hand USD money marketrates could move lower due to the above-mentioned liquidity influx in USD which could spill over to NIBOR asit is a swapped USD fixing per definition
Our running track-record (updated monthly here) is always attached here
Previous FX weeklies
FX weekly China Joe vs Mango Mussolini (24 Jan)
FX weekly Another one Bidens the dust (17 Jan)
FX weekly Peak bullishness (10 Jan)
FX weekly The year of the Ox (03 Jan)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle63454fx-weekly-blanchard-and-the-risk-of-overheating
FX weekly How will consensus be wrongfooted in 2021 (20 Dec)
FX weekly There are decades where nothing happens (13 Dec)
FX weekly Globalization back on the menu (6 Dec)
FX weekly Letrsquos hope that money printers are running on windmills (29 Nov)
FX weekly Mnuchin right or wrong (22 Nov)
FX weekly Politics is like sausages you dont want to watch either being made (15 Nov)
FX weekly Biden is not that reflationary (08 Nov)
FX weekly Are markets dumb or not (01 Nov)
FX weekly Lockdowners on Parade (25 Oct)
FX weekly Buy Green before Lagarde(18 Oct)
FX weekly The one on MMT (11 Oct)
FX weekly Corona Trump (04 Oct)
FX weekly Grin and Barrett (27 Sep)
FX weekly AIT is maybe not as dovish as we thought (20 Sep)
FX weekly AIT means easier financial conditions (13 Sep)
FX weekly Good luck Powell (23 Aug)
middotFX weekly USD to be put in the Jackson Hole (16 Aug)
middotFX weekly Peoples QE (09 Aug)
middotFX weekly USD will remain the No1 reserve currency (02 Aug)
middotFX weekly Kanye vs Trump vs Biden (05 Jul)
middotFX weekly Europe vs US 1-0 (28 Jun)
middotFX weekly Should we fear a second lock-down (21 Jun)
middotFX weekly USD liquidity is not going to be as ample (14 Jun)
middotFX weekly EURphoria and panic-YCC (07 Jun)
middotFX weekly An EU solution to a EUR problem (31 May)
middotFX weekly Time to buy a EUR lottery ticket (24 May)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle63454fx-weekly-blanchard-and-the-risk-of-overheating
middotFX weekly The trade deal was always born to die (17 May)
middotFX weekly How to trade NIRP coming to America (10 May)
middotFX weekly The rise of the Virolocracy (03 May)
middotFX weekly The EUR-tyranny of the minority (27 Apr)
middotFX weekly How to glue together the EUR-ship again (20 Apr)
middotFX weekly The flipside of Oprahnomics(13 Apr)
middotFX weekly USD needs to weaken or else Plaza Accord 20 is likely (06 Apr)
middotFX weekly Spraying the world with money instead of with disinfectant (29 Mar)
middotFX weekly There will be a crisis and new instruments will be created (22 Mar)
middotFX weekly Sweden and UK are the odd ones out (15 Mar)
middotFX weekly A big bucket of bummerballs (08 Mar)
middotFX weekly A preppers guide to trading Corona (01 Mar)
middotFX weekly Get ready for YCC (23 Feb)
middotFX weekly Mini Mike and the Mechanics (16 Feb)
middotFX weekly Feds balance sheet may need to grow more (09 Feb)
middotFX weekly Did the Virus originate in Norway (02 Feb)
middotFX weekly Mnuchin to trick Fed into more POMO (26 Jan)
middotFX weekly A green bubble to save the world (19 Jan)
middotFX weekly Bad news for NIRP-haters (12 Jan)
middotFX weekly Coupon-bearing securities smell of QE4 (05 Jan)
middotFX weekly The Riksbank is not a leading indicator of the ECB (22 Dec)
middotFX weekly Merry Christmas from the POTUS (15 Dec)
middotFX weekly Why this is not 20152016 all over again (08 Dec)
middotFX weekly Waiting for Godot (01 Dec)
middotFX weekly Get ready for Climate QE 2 (24 Nov)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle63454fx-weekly-blanchard-and-the-risk-of-overheating
middotFX weekly FX space yet to corroborate the reflationistas (17 Nov)
middotFX weekly Dont extrapolate the 60 Bs (10 Nov)
middotFX weekly 99 problems but the NOK aint one (3 Nov)
middotFX weekly Something big just happened (27 Oct)
middotFX weekly The QE train to nowhere (20 Oct)
middotFX weekly The 50 Brsquos caused the downturn so what about the 60 Brsquos (13 Oct)
middotFX weekly Is everything falling apart (6 Oct)
middotFX weekly A new path for USD liquidity (29 Sep)
middotFX weekly Soft QE in October (22 Sep)
middotFX weekly Welcome to the birthday party (15 Sep)
middotFX weekly An early santa rally (08 Sep)
middotFX weekly Can you smell the Sushi yet (01 Sep)
middotFX weekly Mo taris mo cuts but whorsquos Sho Nu (25 Aug)
middotFX weekly First havens then sell confetti (18 Aug)
middotFX weekly The liquidity doom loop (11 Aug)
middotFX weekly Buy Treasuries Short Scandis Wear Diamonds (04 Aug)
middotFX weekly Lagarde better practice her Rhine dancing (28 Jul)
middotFX weekly Go big or go home (21 Jul)
middotFX weekly The liquidity plot thickens (14 Jul)
middotFX weekly e-scooters are silly (07Jul)
middotFX weekly One is exausted the other is nuts(30 Jun)
middotFX weekly Time to bring in Steven Seagal 2 (23 Jun)
middotFX weekly Get ready for climate QE (16 Jun)
middotFX weekly Cut cut cut cut (09 Jun)
middotFX weekly The absolute madman (02 Jun)
middotFX weekly Will Xi be Nikithared (26 May)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle63454fx-weekly-blanchard-and-the-risk-of-overheating
middotFX weekly Trade war ping pong (19 May)
middotFX weekly A stairway to heaven for Krona shorts (12 May)
middotFX weekly Mnuchin to bail-out Fed (05 May)
middotFX weekly 3 reasons why the USD has been resurgent (28 Apr)
middotFX weekly No doomsday (yet) (21 Apr)
middotFX weekly In EUR we trust (14 Apr)
middotFX weekly Crouching Tiger Hidden Inflation Dragon (07 Apr)
middotFX weekly There is a smell of 2016 in the air (31 Mar)
middotFX weekly Dear Mr Powell (24 Mar)
middotFX weekly The devils advocate (17 Mar)
middotFX weekly Mario Bla-blaghi (10 Mar)
middotFX weekly Chinese reflation (3 Mar)
middotFX weekly QT cannot run forever (24 Feb)
middotFX weekly The USD is now in Trumps hands (17 Feb)
middotFX weekly Time to care about Euro area politics again (10 Feb)
middotFX weekly Is Powell turning into a MAGA-man (03 Feb)
middotFX weekly On climate angst and fake news (27 Jan)
middotFX weekly The Mnuchin bailout (20 Jan)
middotFX weekly FX weekly Cause Im a flip-flopper yes I am (13 Jan)
middotFX weekly FX weekly Treasury vs Fed (06 Jan)
middotFX weekly Top 4 FXMM trades for Q1-2019 (01 Jan)
middotFX weekly On liquidity witches and warlocks (23 Dec)
middotFX weekly Qui Navance pas recule (16 Dec)
middotFX weekly Burnin down the house (9 Dec)
middotFX weekly In Gut we Trust (2 Dec)
middotFX weekly Pikachu aint no hobbit (25 Nov)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle63454fx-weekly-blanchard-and-the-risk-of-overheating
middotFX weekly Powell pondering pausing (18 Nov)
middotFX weekly Another SOMA-test of 113 (11 Nov)
middotFX weekly 113 will hold unless the Republicans keep both chambers (04 Nov)
middotFX weekly HIA SOMA and REBA-days (28 Oct)
middotFX weekly The debt ceiling is a USD ceiling (21 Oct)
middotFX weekly Volatility makes odd bedfellows (14 Oct)
middotFX weekly No Di-Maionnaise for your EURs (yet) (7 Oct)
middotFX weekly Along came year-end (30 Sep)
middotFX weekly Twin deficit scare 2 (23 Sep)
middotFX weekly The Pope of Nope has spoken (16 Sep)
middotFX weekly Who wants to impeach a +60 ISM president (09 Sep)
middotFX weekly It is time to go long Scandis again (02 Sep)
middotFX weekly The Conte-Trump alliance (26 Aug)
middotFX weekly Fat-burning shorts (19 Aug)
middotFX weekly Time to call in Steven Seagal(12 Aug)
middotFX weekly Is the cyclical momentum over-priced (05 Aug)
middotFX weekly How to trade a cease-fire (29 Jul)
middotFX weekly Whats that curve (22 Jul)
middotFX weekly The China Factor (15 Jul)
middotFX weekly Take a short trade war breather (08 Jul)
middotFX weekly Trump will never 238 (01 Jul)
middotFX weekly The USD is the best carry currency in the world (24 Jun)
middotFX weekly Dollar to provide headwinds for earning estimates (17 Jun)
middotFX weekly Fire and fury risks for the USD (10 Jun)
middotFX weekly Its not only Italy (03 Jun)
middotFX weekly The Sumo SOMA days (27 May)
middotFX weekly EM wont be sprinting if the Fed is unprinting (20 May)e-marketsnordeacomarticle63454fx-weekly-blanchard-and-the-risk-of-overheating
middotFX weekly The two final nails in the dovish FOMC-con (13 May)
middotFX weekly Is there anything left in the USD bull-run (06 May)
middotFX weekly Dragon Energy (29 Apr)
middotFX weekly Relative curvature is the new king of FX (22 Apr)
middotFX weekly Why is EURUSD not trading lower (15 Apr)
middotFX weekly Like watching paint dry they said (08 Apr)
middotFX weekly The list of potential USD-positives is getting longer (01 Apr)
middotFX weekly 2 reasons why EURUSD has decoupled from rates spreads (25 Mar)
middotFX weekly Time to buy a USD lottery ticket (18 Mar)
middotFX weekly Taxation mirror on the wall who is the fairest of them all (11 Mar)
middotFX weekly Trumps game of chicken (04 Mar)
middotFX weekly Will the market neglect the clutch of canaries (25 Feb)
middotFX weekly Is the correlation break-down driven by FX hedges (18 Feb)
middotFX weekly The liquidity tide is ebbing (11 Feb)
middotFX weekly Hawkish spectacles (04 Feb)
middotFX weekly Who will stop EURUSD from moving higher (28 Jan)
middotFX weekly Did the Democrats dent the Dollar (21 Jan)
middotFX weekly Is 125 the new 120 (14 Jan)
middotFX weekly The euphoria rises (07 Jan)
middotFX weekly Paging Dr Pangloss (01 Jan)
middotFX weekly The R-star of Bethlehem (24 Dec)
middotFX weekly A numbers game (17 Dec)
middotFX weekly The year-end liquidty shrink (10 Dec)
middotFX weekly Three reasons why EURUSD isnt trading lower (03 Dec)
middotFX weekly Which currencies to sell if the housing downturn continues (26 Nov)
middotFX weekly The global industrial cycle is set to weaken (19 Nov)
middotFX weekly Is high-yield a canary in the global coal mine (12 Nov)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle63454fx-weekly-blanchard-and-the-risk-of-overheating
middotFX weekly Is this the end of the inflation convergence trade in EURUSD (5 Nov)
middotFX weekly Was that it for the EUR bulls (29 Oct)
middotFX weekly Hawks in opposition doves in charge (22 Oct)
middot FX weeklyContinued convergence or re-divergence(15 Oct)
middotFX weekly Thingsdont matter until they do(08 Oct)
middotFX weekly October seasonality is strong (01 Oct)
middotFX weekly ldquoIs 120 the new 115rdquo(24 Sep)
middot FX weekly Honey I shrunk the balance sheet(17 Sep)
middot FX weekly ldquoUSD liquidity will turn scarcer but whenrdquo (10 Sep)
middot FX weekly ldquoStrong currencies and inflationrdquo(3 Sep)
middot FX weekly ldquoUSD in the (Jackson) holerdquo (27 Aug)
middot FX weekly ldquoQ4 is the USD quarterrdquo(20 Aug)
middot FX weekly ldquoIn the year 2525rdquo(13 Aug)
middot FX weekly ldquoEURUSD ceiling or debt ceilingrdquo(6 Aug)
middot FX weeklyldquoElevator up stairs down ldquo(30 Jul)
middot FX weeklyTrump ldquospicesrdquo up EURUSD(23 Jul)
middot FX weeklyFlip-flop(16 Jul)
middot FX weeklyConsolidation time(9 Jul)
middot FX weeklyHawks R Us(2 Jul)
middot FX weeklyAnother lowflation week(25 Jun)
middot FX weeklyNo Fed put(18 Jun)
middot FX weeklyA bouncy dollar(11 Jun)
middot FX weeklyHeating up(4 Jun)
middot FX weeklySummertime sadness(28 May)
middot FX weeklySpecial counsel lessens Trumpbulence while OPEC looms(21 May)
middot FX weeklyAre China worries old hat(14 May)
middot FX weeklyInflation weekhellip(7 May)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle63454fx-weekly-blanchard-and-the-risk-of-overheating
Andreas Steno LarsenChief Global FXFI Strategistandreasstenolarsennordeacom+45 55 46 72 29
Martin EnlundGlobal Chief FX StrategistMartinEnlundnordeacom
e-marketsnordeacomarticle63454fx-weekly-blanchard-and-the-risk-of-overheating
Chart 4 EURUSD broke down below 12050 and briefly traded below 120
Over the past week we also updated our dollar-o-meter in which we argued that i) relative growth ii) relativeinflation iii) relative central bank policy all seem to favour the USD for now Only one of the four variablesin the -meter politics suggests the dollar is a sell (because of lower perceived economic-political risks andbecause of Biden)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle63454fx-weekly-blanchard-and-the-risk-of-overheating
Chart 5 EURUSD tends to follow relative inflation
While EA inflation topped expectations majestically in January it was driven by what economists shouldprobably have been able to foresee postponed winter sales a reversal of sales taxes in Germany andEurostats decision to use pandemic weights in CPI baskets While this will converge the relative inflationspread in the chart above we note that the spread historically leads EURUSD by five months - so thisshouldnt alter the near-term trajectory
Whats more in the bigger picture we still feel the outlook for US inflation is more upbeat than that for theEA - for instance as relative output gaps look quite dierent Gauging from output gaps + financial fiscaland vaccine impulses the US gap ought to closer much quicker than the EAs suggesting higher inflationpressures earlier in the US than in the EA
e-marketsnordeacomarticle63454fx-weekly-blanchard-and-the-risk-of-overheating
Chart 6 Relative output gaps suggests more inflation earlier in the US
ECBs FX rhetoric has been all over the place recently and despite that - or owing to that - the trade-weighted EUR is now the weakest since November and also somewhat weaker than ECB assumed inDecember This is worth bearing in mind since the EURUSD is understating the weakness of the EUR whichshould be somewhat helpful for ECB hawks
e-marketsnordeacomarticle63454fx-weekly-blanchard-and-the-risk-of-overheating
Chart 7 The trade-weighted EUR is weaker than EURUSD indicates
For all that we would argue that while the downward-shifting dollar smile andor reignited double-deficitworries will eventually cap the downside in the EURUSD but for now we prefer to trade the pair with a sell-on-rally mindset for nimble players and we accordingly also take a nice profit in the short in USDCNY andUSDINR from the autumn of 2020
SEK Now when I say Who da mastah you say Ingrsquoves
For some reason we came to think of The Last Dragon - the epic 80s movie - when we started to ponder whatRiksbanks Ingves could have up his Kung-Fu sleeves at the next meeting or two We must remember that heis THE mastah at creating market volatility and he doesnt care about it Indeed ever since he was namedhead monk at the dark temple of the monetary arts at Brunkebergstorg the SEK has shown greater volatilityon days with a monetary policy decision - a pattern not at all evident in for instance the US
e-marketsnordeacomarticle63454fx-weekly-blanchard-and-the-risk-of-overheating
Chart 8 Ingves likes to create vol will he do it once again
Our main scenario for the Riksbanks February meeting is an unchanged policy rate rate path and QEprogram We expect QE details for Q2 2021 to indicate unchanged distribution of purchases over assettypes However we see a greater likelihood for a dovish surprise than a hawkish one which could be goodnews Swedish SGB (10y5y) flatteners (vs Germany) Read more about our SEK FI recommendations hereAnd whats more the Riksbankrsquos rate path might indicate a modest likelihood of rate cut as several boardmembers continue to mention this possibility That could be one (arguably cost-less in the Riksbankrsquos eyesway to proactively try to counter further SEK gains Receiving March-22 FRAs as a cheap lottery ticket alsocontinue to look interesting in our view
e-marketsnordeacomarticle63454fx-weekly-blanchard-and-the-risk-of-overheating
Chart 9 Higher Swedish inflation suggests SEK will still strengthen in H1 2021
In the end mastah Ingves is unlikely to be successful in countering the jabs (SEK purchases) by LeeroyJenkins (the FX market) but he might be able to cause some short-term bruising
NOK markets are still trading under the influence of tight structural liquidity most dramatically in Norwaywith periods of very elevated fixings and even negative structural liquidity before monetary policy operationsThe NOK FX swaps have been volatile this week and have started to hint of slightly higher NIBOR fixingstoward the end of the week The liquidity outlook is still very tight in the coming months but it could be thatthe most desperate Treasuries have already covered their funding needs The domestic component of NIBORwill probably remain elevated for a while yet also more than priced On the other hand USD money marketrates could move lower due to the above-mentioned liquidity influx in USD which could spill over to NIBOR asit is a swapped USD fixing per definition
Our running track-record (updated monthly here) is always attached here
Previous FX weeklies
FX weekly China Joe vs Mango Mussolini (24 Jan)
FX weekly Another one Bidens the dust (17 Jan)
FX weekly Peak bullishness (10 Jan)
FX weekly The year of the Ox (03 Jan)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle63454fx-weekly-blanchard-and-the-risk-of-overheating
FX weekly How will consensus be wrongfooted in 2021 (20 Dec)
FX weekly There are decades where nothing happens (13 Dec)
FX weekly Globalization back on the menu (6 Dec)
FX weekly Letrsquos hope that money printers are running on windmills (29 Nov)
FX weekly Mnuchin right or wrong (22 Nov)
FX weekly Politics is like sausages you dont want to watch either being made (15 Nov)
FX weekly Biden is not that reflationary (08 Nov)
FX weekly Are markets dumb or not (01 Nov)
FX weekly Lockdowners on Parade (25 Oct)
FX weekly Buy Green before Lagarde(18 Oct)
FX weekly The one on MMT (11 Oct)
FX weekly Corona Trump (04 Oct)
FX weekly Grin and Barrett (27 Sep)
FX weekly AIT is maybe not as dovish as we thought (20 Sep)
FX weekly AIT means easier financial conditions (13 Sep)
FX weekly Good luck Powell (23 Aug)
middotFX weekly USD to be put in the Jackson Hole (16 Aug)
middotFX weekly Peoples QE (09 Aug)
middotFX weekly USD will remain the No1 reserve currency (02 Aug)
middotFX weekly Kanye vs Trump vs Biden (05 Jul)
middotFX weekly Europe vs US 1-0 (28 Jun)
middotFX weekly Should we fear a second lock-down (21 Jun)
middotFX weekly USD liquidity is not going to be as ample (14 Jun)
middotFX weekly EURphoria and panic-YCC (07 Jun)
middotFX weekly An EU solution to a EUR problem (31 May)
middotFX weekly Time to buy a EUR lottery ticket (24 May)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle63454fx-weekly-blanchard-and-the-risk-of-overheating
middotFX weekly The trade deal was always born to die (17 May)
middotFX weekly How to trade NIRP coming to America (10 May)
middotFX weekly The rise of the Virolocracy (03 May)
middotFX weekly The EUR-tyranny of the minority (27 Apr)
middotFX weekly How to glue together the EUR-ship again (20 Apr)
middotFX weekly The flipside of Oprahnomics(13 Apr)
middotFX weekly USD needs to weaken or else Plaza Accord 20 is likely (06 Apr)
middotFX weekly Spraying the world with money instead of with disinfectant (29 Mar)
middotFX weekly There will be a crisis and new instruments will be created (22 Mar)
middotFX weekly Sweden and UK are the odd ones out (15 Mar)
middotFX weekly A big bucket of bummerballs (08 Mar)
middotFX weekly A preppers guide to trading Corona (01 Mar)
middotFX weekly Get ready for YCC (23 Feb)
middotFX weekly Mini Mike and the Mechanics (16 Feb)
middotFX weekly Feds balance sheet may need to grow more (09 Feb)
middotFX weekly Did the Virus originate in Norway (02 Feb)
middotFX weekly Mnuchin to trick Fed into more POMO (26 Jan)
middotFX weekly A green bubble to save the world (19 Jan)
middotFX weekly Bad news for NIRP-haters (12 Jan)
middotFX weekly Coupon-bearing securities smell of QE4 (05 Jan)
middotFX weekly The Riksbank is not a leading indicator of the ECB (22 Dec)
middotFX weekly Merry Christmas from the POTUS (15 Dec)
middotFX weekly Why this is not 20152016 all over again (08 Dec)
middotFX weekly Waiting for Godot (01 Dec)
middotFX weekly Get ready for Climate QE 2 (24 Nov)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle63454fx-weekly-blanchard-and-the-risk-of-overheating
middotFX weekly FX space yet to corroborate the reflationistas (17 Nov)
middotFX weekly Dont extrapolate the 60 Bs (10 Nov)
middotFX weekly 99 problems but the NOK aint one (3 Nov)
middotFX weekly Something big just happened (27 Oct)
middotFX weekly The QE train to nowhere (20 Oct)
middotFX weekly The 50 Brsquos caused the downturn so what about the 60 Brsquos (13 Oct)
middotFX weekly Is everything falling apart (6 Oct)
middotFX weekly A new path for USD liquidity (29 Sep)
middotFX weekly Soft QE in October (22 Sep)
middotFX weekly Welcome to the birthday party (15 Sep)
middotFX weekly An early santa rally (08 Sep)
middotFX weekly Can you smell the Sushi yet (01 Sep)
middotFX weekly Mo taris mo cuts but whorsquos Sho Nu (25 Aug)
middotFX weekly First havens then sell confetti (18 Aug)
middotFX weekly The liquidity doom loop (11 Aug)
middotFX weekly Buy Treasuries Short Scandis Wear Diamonds (04 Aug)
middotFX weekly Lagarde better practice her Rhine dancing (28 Jul)
middotFX weekly Go big or go home (21 Jul)
middotFX weekly The liquidity plot thickens (14 Jul)
middotFX weekly e-scooters are silly (07Jul)
middotFX weekly One is exausted the other is nuts(30 Jun)
middotFX weekly Time to bring in Steven Seagal 2 (23 Jun)
middotFX weekly Get ready for climate QE (16 Jun)
middotFX weekly Cut cut cut cut (09 Jun)
middotFX weekly The absolute madman (02 Jun)
middotFX weekly Will Xi be Nikithared (26 May)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle63454fx-weekly-blanchard-and-the-risk-of-overheating
middotFX weekly Trade war ping pong (19 May)
middotFX weekly A stairway to heaven for Krona shorts (12 May)
middotFX weekly Mnuchin to bail-out Fed (05 May)
middotFX weekly 3 reasons why the USD has been resurgent (28 Apr)
middotFX weekly No doomsday (yet) (21 Apr)
middotFX weekly In EUR we trust (14 Apr)
middotFX weekly Crouching Tiger Hidden Inflation Dragon (07 Apr)
middotFX weekly There is a smell of 2016 in the air (31 Mar)
middotFX weekly Dear Mr Powell (24 Mar)
middotFX weekly The devils advocate (17 Mar)
middotFX weekly Mario Bla-blaghi (10 Mar)
middotFX weekly Chinese reflation (3 Mar)
middotFX weekly QT cannot run forever (24 Feb)
middotFX weekly The USD is now in Trumps hands (17 Feb)
middotFX weekly Time to care about Euro area politics again (10 Feb)
middotFX weekly Is Powell turning into a MAGA-man (03 Feb)
middotFX weekly On climate angst and fake news (27 Jan)
middotFX weekly The Mnuchin bailout (20 Jan)
middotFX weekly FX weekly Cause Im a flip-flopper yes I am (13 Jan)
middotFX weekly FX weekly Treasury vs Fed (06 Jan)
middotFX weekly Top 4 FXMM trades for Q1-2019 (01 Jan)
middotFX weekly On liquidity witches and warlocks (23 Dec)
middotFX weekly Qui Navance pas recule (16 Dec)
middotFX weekly Burnin down the house (9 Dec)
middotFX weekly In Gut we Trust (2 Dec)
middotFX weekly Pikachu aint no hobbit (25 Nov)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle63454fx-weekly-blanchard-and-the-risk-of-overheating
middotFX weekly Powell pondering pausing (18 Nov)
middotFX weekly Another SOMA-test of 113 (11 Nov)
middotFX weekly 113 will hold unless the Republicans keep both chambers (04 Nov)
middotFX weekly HIA SOMA and REBA-days (28 Oct)
middotFX weekly The debt ceiling is a USD ceiling (21 Oct)
middotFX weekly Volatility makes odd bedfellows (14 Oct)
middotFX weekly No Di-Maionnaise for your EURs (yet) (7 Oct)
middotFX weekly Along came year-end (30 Sep)
middotFX weekly Twin deficit scare 2 (23 Sep)
middotFX weekly The Pope of Nope has spoken (16 Sep)
middotFX weekly Who wants to impeach a +60 ISM president (09 Sep)
middotFX weekly It is time to go long Scandis again (02 Sep)
middotFX weekly The Conte-Trump alliance (26 Aug)
middotFX weekly Fat-burning shorts (19 Aug)
middotFX weekly Time to call in Steven Seagal(12 Aug)
middotFX weekly Is the cyclical momentum over-priced (05 Aug)
middotFX weekly How to trade a cease-fire (29 Jul)
middotFX weekly Whats that curve (22 Jul)
middotFX weekly The China Factor (15 Jul)
middotFX weekly Take a short trade war breather (08 Jul)
middotFX weekly Trump will never 238 (01 Jul)
middotFX weekly The USD is the best carry currency in the world (24 Jun)
middotFX weekly Dollar to provide headwinds for earning estimates (17 Jun)
middotFX weekly Fire and fury risks for the USD (10 Jun)
middotFX weekly Its not only Italy (03 Jun)
middotFX weekly The Sumo SOMA days (27 May)
middotFX weekly EM wont be sprinting if the Fed is unprinting (20 May)e-marketsnordeacomarticle63454fx-weekly-blanchard-and-the-risk-of-overheating
middotFX weekly The two final nails in the dovish FOMC-con (13 May)
middotFX weekly Is there anything left in the USD bull-run (06 May)
middotFX weekly Dragon Energy (29 Apr)
middotFX weekly Relative curvature is the new king of FX (22 Apr)
middotFX weekly Why is EURUSD not trading lower (15 Apr)
middotFX weekly Like watching paint dry they said (08 Apr)
middotFX weekly The list of potential USD-positives is getting longer (01 Apr)
middotFX weekly 2 reasons why EURUSD has decoupled from rates spreads (25 Mar)
middotFX weekly Time to buy a USD lottery ticket (18 Mar)
middotFX weekly Taxation mirror on the wall who is the fairest of them all (11 Mar)
middotFX weekly Trumps game of chicken (04 Mar)
middotFX weekly Will the market neglect the clutch of canaries (25 Feb)
middotFX weekly Is the correlation break-down driven by FX hedges (18 Feb)
middotFX weekly The liquidity tide is ebbing (11 Feb)
middotFX weekly Hawkish spectacles (04 Feb)
middotFX weekly Who will stop EURUSD from moving higher (28 Jan)
middotFX weekly Did the Democrats dent the Dollar (21 Jan)
middotFX weekly Is 125 the new 120 (14 Jan)
middotFX weekly The euphoria rises (07 Jan)
middotFX weekly Paging Dr Pangloss (01 Jan)
middotFX weekly The R-star of Bethlehem (24 Dec)
middotFX weekly A numbers game (17 Dec)
middotFX weekly The year-end liquidty shrink (10 Dec)
middotFX weekly Three reasons why EURUSD isnt trading lower (03 Dec)
middotFX weekly Which currencies to sell if the housing downturn continues (26 Nov)
middotFX weekly The global industrial cycle is set to weaken (19 Nov)
middotFX weekly Is high-yield a canary in the global coal mine (12 Nov)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle63454fx-weekly-blanchard-and-the-risk-of-overheating
middotFX weekly Is this the end of the inflation convergence trade in EURUSD (5 Nov)
middotFX weekly Was that it for the EUR bulls (29 Oct)
middotFX weekly Hawks in opposition doves in charge (22 Oct)
middot FX weeklyContinued convergence or re-divergence(15 Oct)
middotFX weekly Thingsdont matter until they do(08 Oct)
middotFX weekly October seasonality is strong (01 Oct)
middotFX weekly ldquoIs 120 the new 115rdquo(24 Sep)
middot FX weekly Honey I shrunk the balance sheet(17 Sep)
middot FX weekly ldquoUSD liquidity will turn scarcer but whenrdquo (10 Sep)
middot FX weekly ldquoStrong currencies and inflationrdquo(3 Sep)
middot FX weekly ldquoUSD in the (Jackson) holerdquo (27 Aug)
middot FX weekly ldquoQ4 is the USD quarterrdquo(20 Aug)
middot FX weekly ldquoIn the year 2525rdquo(13 Aug)
middot FX weekly ldquoEURUSD ceiling or debt ceilingrdquo(6 Aug)
middot FX weeklyldquoElevator up stairs down ldquo(30 Jul)
middot FX weeklyTrump ldquospicesrdquo up EURUSD(23 Jul)
middot FX weeklyFlip-flop(16 Jul)
middot FX weeklyConsolidation time(9 Jul)
middot FX weeklyHawks R Us(2 Jul)
middot FX weeklyAnother lowflation week(25 Jun)
middot FX weeklyNo Fed put(18 Jun)
middot FX weeklyA bouncy dollar(11 Jun)
middot FX weeklyHeating up(4 Jun)
middot FX weeklySummertime sadness(28 May)
middot FX weeklySpecial counsel lessens Trumpbulence while OPEC looms(21 May)
middot FX weeklyAre China worries old hat(14 May)
middot FX weeklyInflation weekhellip(7 May)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle63454fx-weekly-blanchard-and-the-risk-of-overheating
Andreas Steno LarsenChief Global FXFI Strategistandreasstenolarsennordeacom+45 55 46 72 29
Martin EnlundGlobal Chief FX StrategistMartinEnlundnordeacom
e-marketsnordeacomarticle63454fx-weekly-blanchard-and-the-risk-of-overheating
Chart 5 EURUSD tends to follow relative inflation
While EA inflation topped expectations majestically in January it was driven by what economists shouldprobably have been able to foresee postponed winter sales a reversal of sales taxes in Germany andEurostats decision to use pandemic weights in CPI baskets While this will converge the relative inflationspread in the chart above we note that the spread historically leads EURUSD by five months - so thisshouldnt alter the near-term trajectory
Whats more in the bigger picture we still feel the outlook for US inflation is more upbeat than that for theEA - for instance as relative output gaps look quite dierent Gauging from output gaps + financial fiscaland vaccine impulses the US gap ought to closer much quicker than the EAs suggesting higher inflationpressures earlier in the US than in the EA
e-marketsnordeacomarticle63454fx-weekly-blanchard-and-the-risk-of-overheating
Chart 6 Relative output gaps suggests more inflation earlier in the US
ECBs FX rhetoric has been all over the place recently and despite that - or owing to that - the trade-weighted EUR is now the weakest since November and also somewhat weaker than ECB assumed inDecember This is worth bearing in mind since the EURUSD is understating the weakness of the EUR whichshould be somewhat helpful for ECB hawks
e-marketsnordeacomarticle63454fx-weekly-blanchard-and-the-risk-of-overheating
Chart 7 The trade-weighted EUR is weaker than EURUSD indicates
For all that we would argue that while the downward-shifting dollar smile andor reignited double-deficitworries will eventually cap the downside in the EURUSD but for now we prefer to trade the pair with a sell-on-rally mindset for nimble players and we accordingly also take a nice profit in the short in USDCNY andUSDINR from the autumn of 2020
SEK Now when I say Who da mastah you say Ingrsquoves
For some reason we came to think of The Last Dragon - the epic 80s movie - when we started to ponder whatRiksbanks Ingves could have up his Kung-Fu sleeves at the next meeting or two We must remember that heis THE mastah at creating market volatility and he doesnt care about it Indeed ever since he was namedhead monk at the dark temple of the monetary arts at Brunkebergstorg the SEK has shown greater volatilityon days with a monetary policy decision - a pattern not at all evident in for instance the US
e-marketsnordeacomarticle63454fx-weekly-blanchard-and-the-risk-of-overheating
Chart 8 Ingves likes to create vol will he do it once again
Our main scenario for the Riksbanks February meeting is an unchanged policy rate rate path and QEprogram We expect QE details for Q2 2021 to indicate unchanged distribution of purchases over assettypes However we see a greater likelihood for a dovish surprise than a hawkish one which could be goodnews Swedish SGB (10y5y) flatteners (vs Germany) Read more about our SEK FI recommendations hereAnd whats more the Riksbankrsquos rate path might indicate a modest likelihood of rate cut as several boardmembers continue to mention this possibility That could be one (arguably cost-less in the Riksbankrsquos eyesway to proactively try to counter further SEK gains Receiving March-22 FRAs as a cheap lottery ticket alsocontinue to look interesting in our view
e-marketsnordeacomarticle63454fx-weekly-blanchard-and-the-risk-of-overheating
Chart 9 Higher Swedish inflation suggests SEK will still strengthen in H1 2021
In the end mastah Ingves is unlikely to be successful in countering the jabs (SEK purchases) by LeeroyJenkins (the FX market) but he might be able to cause some short-term bruising
NOK markets are still trading under the influence of tight structural liquidity most dramatically in Norwaywith periods of very elevated fixings and even negative structural liquidity before monetary policy operationsThe NOK FX swaps have been volatile this week and have started to hint of slightly higher NIBOR fixingstoward the end of the week The liquidity outlook is still very tight in the coming months but it could be thatthe most desperate Treasuries have already covered their funding needs The domestic component of NIBORwill probably remain elevated for a while yet also more than priced On the other hand USD money marketrates could move lower due to the above-mentioned liquidity influx in USD which could spill over to NIBOR asit is a swapped USD fixing per definition
Our running track-record (updated monthly here) is always attached here
Previous FX weeklies
FX weekly China Joe vs Mango Mussolini (24 Jan)
FX weekly Another one Bidens the dust (17 Jan)
FX weekly Peak bullishness (10 Jan)
FX weekly The year of the Ox (03 Jan)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle63454fx-weekly-blanchard-and-the-risk-of-overheating
FX weekly How will consensus be wrongfooted in 2021 (20 Dec)
FX weekly There are decades where nothing happens (13 Dec)
FX weekly Globalization back on the menu (6 Dec)
FX weekly Letrsquos hope that money printers are running on windmills (29 Nov)
FX weekly Mnuchin right or wrong (22 Nov)
FX weekly Politics is like sausages you dont want to watch either being made (15 Nov)
FX weekly Biden is not that reflationary (08 Nov)
FX weekly Are markets dumb or not (01 Nov)
FX weekly Lockdowners on Parade (25 Oct)
FX weekly Buy Green before Lagarde(18 Oct)
FX weekly The one on MMT (11 Oct)
FX weekly Corona Trump (04 Oct)
FX weekly Grin and Barrett (27 Sep)
FX weekly AIT is maybe not as dovish as we thought (20 Sep)
FX weekly AIT means easier financial conditions (13 Sep)
FX weekly Good luck Powell (23 Aug)
middotFX weekly USD to be put in the Jackson Hole (16 Aug)
middotFX weekly Peoples QE (09 Aug)
middotFX weekly USD will remain the No1 reserve currency (02 Aug)
middotFX weekly Kanye vs Trump vs Biden (05 Jul)
middotFX weekly Europe vs US 1-0 (28 Jun)
middotFX weekly Should we fear a second lock-down (21 Jun)
middotFX weekly USD liquidity is not going to be as ample (14 Jun)
middotFX weekly EURphoria and panic-YCC (07 Jun)
middotFX weekly An EU solution to a EUR problem (31 May)
middotFX weekly Time to buy a EUR lottery ticket (24 May)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle63454fx-weekly-blanchard-and-the-risk-of-overheating
middotFX weekly The trade deal was always born to die (17 May)
middotFX weekly How to trade NIRP coming to America (10 May)
middotFX weekly The rise of the Virolocracy (03 May)
middotFX weekly The EUR-tyranny of the minority (27 Apr)
middotFX weekly How to glue together the EUR-ship again (20 Apr)
middotFX weekly The flipside of Oprahnomics(13 Apr)
middotFX weekly USD needs to weaken or else Plaza Accord 20 is likely (06 Apr)
middotFX weekly Spraying the world with money instead of with disinfectant (29 Mar)
middotFX weekly There will be a crisis and new instruments will be created (22 Mar)
middotFX weekly Sweden and UK are the odd ones out (15 Mar)
middotFX weekly A big bucket of bummerballs (08 Mar)
middotFX weekly A preppers guide to trading Corona (01 Mar)
middotFX weekly Get ready for YCC (23 Feb)
middotFX weekly Mini Mike and the Mechanics (16 Feb)
middotFX weekly Feds balance sheet may need to grow more (09 Feb)
middotFX weekly Did the Virus originate in Norway (02 Feb)
middotFX weekly Mnuchin to trick Fed into more POMO (26 Jan)
middotFX weekly A green bubble to save the world (19 Jan)
middotFX weekly Bad news for NIRP-haters (12 Jan)
middotFX weekly Coupon-bearing securities smell of QE4 (05 Jan)
middotFX weekly The Riksbank is not a leading indicator of the ECB (22 Dec)
middotFX weekly Merry Christmas from the POTUS (15 Dec)
middotFX weekly Why this is not 20152016 all over again (08 Dec)
middotFX weekly Waiting for Godot (01 Dec)
middotFX weekly Get ready for Climate QE 2 (24 Nov)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle63454fx-weekly-blanchard-and-the-risk-of-overheating
middotFX weekly FX space yet to corroborate the reflationistas (17 Nov)
middotFX weekly Dont extrapolate the 60 Bs (10 Nov)
middotFX weekly 99 problems but the NOK aint one (3 Nov)
middotFX weekly Something big just happened (27 Oct)
middotFX weekly The QE train to nowhere (20 Oct)
middotFX weekly The 50 Brsquos caused the downturn so what about the 60 Brsquos (13 Oct)
middotFX weekly Is everything falling apart (6 Oct)
middotFX weekly A new path for USD liquidity (29 Sep)
middotFX weekly Soft QE in October (22 Sep)
middotFX weekly Welcome to the birthday party (15 Sep)
middotFX weekly An early santa rally (08 Sep)
middotFX weekly Can you smell the Sushi yet (01 Sep)
middotFX weekly Mo taris mo cuts but whorsquos Sho Nu (25 Aug)
middotFX weekly First havens then sell confetti (18 Aug)
middotFX weekly The liquidity doom loop (11 Aug)
middotFX weekly Buy Treasuries Short Scandis Wear Diamonds (04 Aug)
middotFX weekly Lagarde better practice her Rhine dancing (28 Jul)
middotFX weekly Go big or go home (21 Jul)
middotFX weekly The liquidity plot thickens (14 Jul)
middotFX weekly e-scooters are silly (07Jul)
middotFX weekly One is exausted the other is nuts(30 Jun)
middotFX weekly Time to bring in Steven Seagal 2 (23 Jun)
middotFX weekly Get ready for climate QE (16 Jun)
middotFX weekly Cut cut cut cut (09 Jun)
middotFX weekly The absolute madman (02 Jun)
middotFX weekly Will Xi be Nikithared (26 May)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle63454fx-weekly-blanchard-and-the-risk-of-overheating
middotFX weekly Trade war ping pong (19 May)
middotFX weekly A stairway to heaven for Krona shorts (12 May)
middotFX weekly Mnuchin to bail-out Fed (05 May)
middotFX weekly 3 reasons why the USD has been resurgent (28 Apr)
middotFX weekly No doomsday (yet) (21 Apr)
middotFX weekly In EUR we trust (14 Apr)
middotFX weekly Crouching Tiger Hidden Inflation Dragon (07 Apr)
middotFX weekly There is a smell of 2016 in the air (31 Mar)
middotFX weekly Dear Mr Powell (24 Mar)
middotFX weekly The devils advocate (17 Mar)
middotFX weekly Mario Bla-blaghi (10 Mar)
middotFX weekly Chinese reflation (3 Mar)
middotFX weekly QT cannot run forever (24 Feb)
middotFX weekly The USD is now in Trumps hands (17 Feb)
middotFX weekly Time to care about Euro area politics again (10 Feb)
middotFX weekly Is Powell turning into a MAGA-man (03 Feb)
middotFX weekly On climate angst and fake news (27 Jan)
middotFX weekly The Mnuchin bailout (20 Jan)
middotFX weekly FX weekly Cause Im a flip-flopper yes I am (13 Jan)
middotFX weekly FX weekly Treasury vs Fed (06 Jan)
middotFX weekly Top 4 FXMM trades for Q1-2019 (01 Jan)
middotFX weekly On liquidity witches and warlocks (23 Dec)
middotFX weekly Qui Navance pas recule (16 Dec)
middotFX weekly Burnin down the house (9 Dec)
middotFX weekly In Gut we Trust (2 Dec)
middotFX weekly Pikachu aint no hobbit (25 Nov)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle63454fx-weekly-blanchard-and-the-risk-of-overheating
middotFX weekly Powell pondering pausing (18 Nov)
middotFX weekly Another SOMA-test of 113 (11 Nov)
middotFX weekly 113 will hold unless the Republicans keep both chambers (04 Nov)
middotFX weekly HIA SOMA and REBA-days (28 Oct)
middotFX weekly The debt ceiling is a USD ceiling (21 Oct)
middotFX weekly Volatility makes odd bedfellows (14 Oct)
middotFX weekly No Di-Maionnaise for your EURs (yet) (7 Oct)
middotFX weekly Along came year-end (30 Sep)
middotFX weekly Twin deficit scare 2 (23 Sep)
middotFX weekly The Pope of Nope has spoken (16 Sep)
middotFX weekly Who wants to impeach a +60 ISM president (09 Sep)
middotFX weekly It is time to go long Scandis again (02 Sep)
middotFX weekly The Conte-Trump alliance (26 Aug)
middotFX weekly Fat-burning shorts (19 Aug)
middotFX weekly Time to call in Steven Seagal(12 Aug)
middotFX weekly Is the cyclical momentum over-priced (05 Aug)
middotFX weekly How to trade a cease-fire (29 Jul)
middotFX weekly Whats that curve (22 Jul)
middotFX weekly The China Factor (15 Jul)
middotFX weekly Take a short trade war breather (08 Jul)
middotFX weekly Trump will never 238 (01 Jul)
middotFX weekly The USD is the best carry currency in the world (24 Jun)
middotFX weekly Dollar to provide headwinds for earning estimates (17 Jun)
middotFX weekly Fire and fury risks for the USD (10 Jun)
middotFX weekly Its not only Italy (03 Jun)
middotFX weekly The Sumo SOMA days (27 May)
middotFX weekly EM wont be sprinting if the Fed is unprinting (20 May)e-marketsnordeacomarticle63454fx-weekly-blanchard-and-the-risk-of-overheating
middotFX weekly The two final nails in the dovish FOMC-con (13 May)
middotFX weekly Is there anything left in the USD bull-run (06 May)
middotFX weekly Dragon Energy (29 Apr)
middotFX weekly Relative curvature is the new king of FX (22 Apr)
middotFX weekly Why is EURUSD not trading lower (15 Apr)
middotFX weekly Like watching paint dry they said (08 Apr)
middotFX weekly The list of potential USD-positives is getting longer (01 Apr)
middotFX weekly 2 reasons why EURUSD has decoupled from rates spreads (25 Mar)
middotFX weekly Time to buy a USD lottery ticket (18 Mar)
middotFX weekly Taxation mirror on the wall who is the fairest of them all (11 Mar)
middotFX weekly Trumps game of chicken (04 Mar)
middotFX weekly Will the market neglect the clutch of canaries (25 Feb)
middotFX weekly Is the correlation break-down driven by FX hedges (18 Feb)
middotFX weekly The liquidity tide is ebbing (11 Feb)
middotFX weekly Hawkish spectacles (04 Feb)
middotFX weekly Who will stop EURUSD from moving higher (28 Jan)
middotFX weekly Did the Democrats dent the Dollar (21 Jan)
middotFX weekly Is 125 the new 120 (14 Jan)
middotFX weekly The euphoria rises (07 Jan)
middotFX weekly Paging Dr Pangloss (01 Jan)
middotFX weekly The R-star of Bethlehem (24 Dec)
middotFX weekly A numbers game (17 Dec)
middotFX weekly The year-end liquidty shrink (10 Dec)
middotFX weekly Three reasons why EURUSD isnt trading lower (03 Dec)
middotFX weekly Which currencies to sell if the housing downturn continues (26 Nov)
middotFX weekly The global industrial cycle is set to weaken (19 Nov)
middotFX weekly Is high-yield a canary in the global coal mine (12 Nov)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle63454fx-weekly-blanchard-and-the-risk-of-overheating
middotFX weekly Is this the end of the inflation convergence trade in EURUSD (5 Nov)
middotFX weekly Was that it for the EUR bulls (29 Oct)
middotFX weekly Hawks in opposition doves in charge (22 Oct)
middot FX weeklyContinued convergence or re-divergence(15 Oct)
middotFX weekly Thingsdont matter until they do(08 Oct)
middotFX weekly October seasonality is strong (01 Oct)
middotFX weekly ldquoIs 120 the new 115rdquo(24 Sep)
middot FX weekly Honey I shrunk the balance sheet(17 Sep)
middot FX weekly ldquoUSD liquidity will turn scarcer but whenrdquo (10 Sep)
middot FX weekly ldquoStrong currencies and inflationrdquo(3 Sep)
middot FX weekly ldquoUSD in the (Jackson) holerdquo (27 Aug)
middot FX weekly ldquoQ4 is the USD quarterrdquo(20 Aug)
middot FX weekly ldquoIn the year 2525rdquo(13 Aug)
middot FX weekly ldquoEURUSD ceiling or debt ceilingrdquo(6 Aug)
middot FX weeklyldquoElevator up stairs down ldquo(30 Jul)
middot FX weeklyTrump ldquospicesrdquo up EURUSD(23 Jul)
middot FX weeklyFlip-flop(16 Jul)
middot FX weeklyConsolidation time(9 Jul)
middot FX weeklyHawks R Us(2 Jul)
middot FX weeklyAnother lowflation week(25 Jun)
middot FX weeklyNo Fed put(18 Jun)
middot FX weeklyA bouncy dollar(11 Jun)
middot FX weeklyHeating up(4 Jun)
middot FX weeklySummertime sadness(28 May)
middot FX weeklySpecial counsel lessens Trumpbulence while OPEC looms(21 May)
middot FX weeklyAre China worries old hat(14 May)
middot FX weeklyInflation weekhellip(7 May)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle63454fx-weekly-blanchard-and-the-risk-of-overheating
Andreas Steno LarsenChief Global FXFI Strategistandreasstenolarsennordeacom+45 55 46 72 29
Martin EnlundGlobal Chief FX StrategistMartinEnlundnordeacom
e-marketsnordeacomarticle63454fx-weekly-blanchard-and-the-risk-of-overheating
Chart 6 Relative output gaps suggests more inflation earlier in the US
ECBs FX rhetoric has been all over the place recently and despite that - or owing to that - the trade-weighted EUR is now the weakest since November and also somewhat weaker than ECB assumed inDecember This is worth bearing in mind since the EURUSD is understating the weakness of the EUR whichshould be somewhat helpful for ECB hawks
e-marketsnordeacomarticle63454fx-weekly-blanchard-and-the-risk-of-overheating
Chart 7 The trade-weighted EUR is weaker than EURUSD indicates
For all that we would argue that while the downward-shifting dollar smile andor reignited double-deficitworries will eventually cap the downside in the EURUSD but for now we prefer to trade the pair with a sell-on-rally mindset for nimble players and we accordingly also take a nice profit in the short in USDCNY andUSDINR from the autumn of 2020
SEK Now when I say Who da mastah you say Ingrsquoves
For some reason we came to think of The Last Dragon - the epic 80s movie - when we started to ponder whatRiksbanks Ingves could have up his Kung-Fu sleeves at the next meeting or two We must remember that heis THE mastah at creating market volatility and he doesnt care about it Indeed ever since he was namedhead monk at the dark temple of the monetary arts at Brunkebergstorg the SEK has shown greater volatilityon days with a monetary policy decision - a pattern not at all evident in for instance the US
e-marketsnordeacomarticle63454fx-weekly-blanchard-and-the-risk-of-overheating
Chart 8 Ingves likes to create vol will he do it once again
Our main scenario for the Riksbanks February meeting is an unchanged policy rate rate path and QEprogram We expect QE details for Q2 2021 to indicate unchanged distribution of purchases over assettypes However we see a greater likelihood for a dovish surprise than a hawkish one which could be goodnews Swedish SGB (10y5y) flatteners (vs Germany) Read more about our SEK FI recommendations hereAnd whats more the Riksbankrsquos rate path might indicate a modest likelihood of rate cut as several boardmembers continue to mention this possibility That could be one (arguably cost-less in the Riksbankrsquos eyesway to proactively try to counter further SEK gains Receiving March-22 FRAs as a cheap lottery ticket alsocontinue to look interesting in our view
e-marketsnordeacomarticle63454fx-weekly-blanchard-and-the-risk-of-overheating
Chart 9 Higher Swedish inflation suggests SEK will still strengthen in H1 2021
In the end mastah Ingves is unlikely to be successful in countering the jabs (SEK purchases) by LeeroyJenkins (the FX market) but he might be able to cause some short-term bruising
NOK markets are still trading under the influence of tight structural liquidity most dramatically in Norwaywith periods of very elevated fixings and even negative structural liquidity before monetary policy operationsThe NOK FX swaps have been volatile this week and have started to hint of slightly higher NIBOR fixingstoward the end of the week The liquidity outlook is still very tight in the coming months but it could be thatthe most desperate Treasuries have already covered their funding needs The domestic component of NIBORwill probably remain elevated for a while yet also more than priced On the other hand USD money marketrates could move lower due to the above-mentioned liquidity influx in USD which could spill over to NIBOR asit is a swapped USD fixing per definition
Our running track-record (updated monthly here) is always attached here
Previous FX weeklies
FX weekly China Joe vs Mango Mussolini (24 Jan)
FX weekly Another one Bidens the dust (17 Jan)
FX weekly Peak bullishness (10 Jan)
FX weekly The year of the Ox (03 Jan)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle63454fx-weekly-blanchard-and-the-risk-of-overheating
FX weekly How will consensus be wrongfooted in 2021 (20 Dec)
FX weekly There are decades where nothing happens (13 Dec)
FX weekly Globalization back on the menu (6 Dec)
FX weekly Letrsquos hope that money printers are running on windmills (29 Nov)
FX weekly Mnuchin right or wrong (22 Nov)
FX weekly Politics is like sausages you dont want to watch either being made (15 Nov)
FX weekly Biden is not that reflationary (08 Nov)
FX weekly Are markets dumb or not (01 Nov)
FX weekly Lockdowners on Parade (25 Oct)
FX weekly Buy Green before Lagarde(18 Oct)
FX weekly The one on MMT (11 Oct)
FX weekly Corona Trump (04 Oct)
FX weekly Grin and Barrett (27 Sep)
FX weekly AIT is maybe not as dovish as we thought (20 Sep)
FX weekly AIT means easier financial conditions (13 Sep)
FX weekly Good luck Powell (23 Aug)
middotFX weekly USD to be put in the Jackson Hole (16 Aug)
middotFX weekly Peoples QE (09 Aug)
middotFX weekly USD will remain the No1 reserve currency (02 Aug)
middotFX weekly Kanye vs Trump vs Biden (05 Jul)
middotFX weekly Europe vs US 1-0 (28 Jun)
middotFX weekly Should we fear a second lock-down (21 Jun)
middotFX weekly USD liquidity is not going to be as ample (14 Jun)
middotFX weekly EURphoria and panic-YCC (07 Jun)
middotFX weekly An EU solution to a EUR problem (31 May)
middotFX weekly Time to buy a EUR lottery ticket (24 May)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle63454fx-weekly-blanchard-and-the-risk-of-overheating
middotFX weekly The trade deal was always born to die (17 May)
middotFX weekly How to trade NIRP coming to America (10 May)
middotFX weekly The rise of the Virolocracy (03 May)
middotFX weekly The EUR-tyranny of the minority (27 Apr)
middotFX weekly How to glue together the EUR-ship again (20 Apr)
middotFX weekly The flipside of Oprahnomics(13 Apr)
middotFX weekly USD needs to weaken or else Plaza Accord 20 is likely (06 Apr)
middotFX weekly Spraying the world with money instead of with disinfectant (29 Mar)
middotFX weekly There will be a crisis and new instruments will be created (22 Mar)
middotFX weekly Sweden and UK are the odd ones out (15 Mar)
middotFX weekly A big bucket of bummerballs (08 Mar)
middotFX weekly A preppers guide to trading Corona (01 Mar)
middotFX weekly Get ready for YCC (23 Feb)
middotFX weekly Mini Mike and the Mechanics (16 Feb)
middotFX weekly Feds balance sheet may need to grow more (09 Feb)
middotFX weekly Did the Virus originate in Norway (02 Feb)
middotFX weekly Mnuchin to trick Fed into more POMO (26 Jan)
middotFX weekly A green bubble to save the world (19 Jan)
middotFX weekly Bad news for NIRP-haters (12 Jan)
middotFX weekly Coupon-bearing securities smell of QE4 (05 Jan)
middotFX weekly The Riksbank is not a leading indicator of the ECB (22 Dec)
middotFX weekly Merry Christmas from the POTUS (15 Dec)
middotFX weekly Why this is not 20152016 all over again (08 Dec)
middotFX weekly Waiting for Godot (01 Dec)
middotFX weekly Get ready for Climate QE 2 (24 Nov)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle63454fx-weekly-blanchard-and-the-risk-of-overheating
middotFX weekly FX space yet to corroborate the reflationistas (17 Nov)
middotFX weekly Dont extrapolate the 60 Bs (10 Nov)
middotFX weekly 99 problems but the NOK aint one (3 Nov)
middotFX weekly Something big just happened (27 Oct)
middotFX weekly The QE train to nowhere (20 Oct)
middotFX weekly The 50 Brsquos caused the downturn so what about the 60 Brsquos (13 Oct)
middotFX weekly Is everything falling apart (6 Oct)
middotFX weekly A new path for USD liquidity (29 Sep)
middotFX weekly Soft QE in October (22 Sep)
middotFX weekly Welcome to the birthday party (15 Sep)
middotFX weekly An early santa rally (08 Sep)
middotFX weekly Can you smell the Sushi yet (01 Sep)
middotFX weekly Mo taris mo cuts but whorsquos Sho Nu (25 Aug)
middotFX weekly First havens then sell confetti (18 Aug)
middotFX weekly The liquidity doom loop (11 Aug)
middotFX weekly Buy Treasuries Short Scandis Wear Diamonds (04 Aug)
middotFX weekly Lagarde better practice her Rhine dancing (28 Jul)
middotFX weekly Go big or go home (21 Jul)
middotFX weekly The liquidity plot thickens (14 Jul)
middotFX weekly e-scooters are silly (07Jul)
middotFX weekly One is exausted the other is nuts(30 Jun)
middotFX weekly Time to bring in Steven Seagal 2 (23 Jun)
middotFX weekly Get ready for climate QE (16 Jun)
middotFX weekly Cut cut cut cut (09 Jun)
middotFX weekly The absolute madman (02 Jun)
middotFX weekly Will Xi be Nikithared (26 May)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle63454fx-weekly-blanchard-and-the-risk-of-overheating
middotFX weekly Trade war ping pong (19 May)
middotFX weekly A stairway to heaven for Krona shorts (12 May)
middotFX weekly Mnuchin to bail-out Fed (05 May)
middotFX weekly 3 reasons why the USD has been resurgent (28 Apr)
middotFX weekly No doomsday (yet) (21 Apr)
middotFX weekly In EUR we trust (14 Apr)
middotFX weekly Crouching Tiger Hidden Inflation Dragon (07 Apr)
middotFX weekly There is a smell of 2016 in the air (31 Mar)
middotFX weekly Dear Mr Powell (24 Mar)
middotFX weekly The devils advocate (17 Mar)
middotFX weekly Mario Bla-blaghi (10 Mar)
middotFX weekly Chinese reflation (3 Mar)
middotFX weekly QT cannot run forever (24 Feb)
middotFX weekly The USD is now in Trumps hands (17 Feb)
middotFX weekly Time to care about Euro area politics again (10 Feb)
middotFX weekly Is Powell turning into a MAGA-man (03 Feb)
middotFX weekly On climate angst and fake news (27 Jan)
middotFX weekly The Mnuchin bailout (20 Jan)
middotFX weekly FX weekly Cause Im a flip-flopper yes I am (13 Jan)
middotFX weekly FX weekly Treasury vs Fed (06 Jan)
middotFX weekly Top 4 FXMM trades for Q1-2019 (01 Jan)
middotFX weekly On liquidity witches and warlocks (23 Dec)
middotFX weekly Qui Navance pas recule (16 Dec)
middotFX weekly Burnin down the house (9 Dec)
middotFX weekly In Gut we Trust (2 Dec)
middotFX weekly Pikachu aint no hobbit (25 Nov)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle63454fx-weekly-blanchard-and-the-risk-of-overheating
middotFX weekly Powell pondering pausing (18 Nov)
middotFX weekly Another SOMA-test of 113 (11 Nov)
middotFX weekly 113 will hold unless the Republicans keep both chambers (04 Nov)
middotFX weekly HIA SOMA and REBA-days (28 Oct)
middotFX weekly The debt ceiling is a USD ceiling (21 Oct)
middotFX weekly Volatility makes odd bedfellows (14 Oct)
middotFX weekly No Di-Maionnaise for your EURs (yet) (7 Oct)
middotFX weekly Along came year-end (30 Sep)
middotFX weekly Twin deficit scare 2 (23 Sep)
middotFX weekly The Pope of Nope has spoken (16 Sep)
middotFX weekly Who wants to impeach a +60 ISM president (09 Sep)
middotFX weekly It is time to go long Scandis again (02 Sep)
middotFX weekly The Conte-Trump alliance (26 Aug)
middotFX weekly Fat-burning shorts (19 Aug)
middotFX weekly Time to call in Steven Seagal(12 Aug)
middotFX weekly Is the cyclical momentum over-priced (05 Aug)
middotFX weekly How to trade a cease-fire (29 Jul)
middotFX weekly Whats that curve (22 Jul)
middotFX weekly The China Factor (15 Jul)
middotFX weekly Take a short trade war breather (08 Jul)
middotFX weekly Trump will never 238 (01 Jul)
middotFX weekly The USD is the best carry currency in the world (24 Jun)
middotFX weekly Dollar to provide headwinds for earning estimates (17 Jun)
middotFX weekly Fire and fury risks for the USD (10 Jun)
middotFX weekly Its not only Italy (03 Jun)
middotFX weekly The Sumo SOMA days (27 May)
middotFX weekly EM wont be sprinting if the Fed is unprinting (20 May)e-marketsnordeacomarticle63454fx-weekly-blanchard-and-the-risk-of-overheating
middotFX weekly The two final nails in the dovish FOMC-con (13 May)
middotFX weekly Is there anything left in the USD bull-run (06 May)
middotFX weekly Dragon Energy (29 Apr)
middotFX weekly Relative curvature is the new king of FX (22 Apr)
middotFX weekly Why is EURUSD not trading lower (15 Apr)
middotFX weekly Like watching paint dry they said (08 Apr)
middotFX weekly The list of potential USD-positives is getting longer (01 Apr)
middotFX weekly 2 reasons why EURUSD has decoupled from rates spreads (25 Mar)
middotFX weekly Time to buy a USD lottery ticket (18 Mar)
middotFX weekly Taxation mirror on the wall who is the fairest of them all (11 Mar)
middotFX weekly Trumps game of chicken (04 Mar)
middotFX weekly Will the market neglect the clutch of canaries (25 Feb)
middotFX weekly Is the correlation break-down driven by FX hedges (18 Feb)
middotFX weekly The liquidity tide is ebbing (11 Feb)
middotFX weekly Hawkish spectacles (04 Feb)
middotFX weekly Who will stop EURUSD from moving higher (28 Jan)
middotFX weekly Did the Democrats dent the Dollar (21 Jan)
middotFX weekly Is 125 the new 120 (14 Jan)
middotFX weekly The euphoria rises (07 Jan)
middotFX weekly Paging Dr Pangloss (01 Jan)
middotFX weekly The R-star of Bethlehem (24 Dec)
middotFX weekly A numbers game (17 Dec)
middotFX weekly The year-end liquidty shrink (10 Dec)
middotFX weekly Three reasons why EURUSD isnt trading lower (03 Dec)
middotFX weekly Which currencies to sell if the housing downturn continues (26 Nov)
middotFX weekly The global industrial cycle is set to weaken (19 Nov)
middotFX weekly Is high-yield a canary in the global coal mine (12 Nov)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle63454fx-weekly-blanchard-and-the-risk-of-overheating
middotFX weekly Is this the end of the inflation convergence trade in EURUSD (5 Nov)
middotFX weekly Was that it for the EUR bulls (29 Oct)
middotFX weekly Hawks in opposition doves in charge (22 Oct)
middot FX weeklyContinued convergence or re-divergence(15 Oct)
middotFX weekly Thingsdont matter until they do(08 Oct)
middotFX weekly October seasonality is strong (01 Oct)
middotFX weekly ldquoIs 120 the new 115rdquo(24 Sep)
middot FX weekly Honey I shrunk the balance sheet(17 Sep)
middot FX weekly ldquoUSD liquidity will turn scarcer but whenrdquo (10 Sep)
middot FX weekly ldquoStrong currencies and inflationrdquo(3 Sep)
middot FX weekly ldquoUSD in the (Jackson) holerdquo (27 Aug)
middot FX weekly ldquoQ4 is the USD quarterrdquo(20 Aug)
middot FX weekly ldquoIn the year 2525rdquo(13 Aug)
middot FX weekly ldquoEURUSD ceiling or debt ceilingrdquo(6 Aug)
middot FX weeklyldquoElevator up stairs down ldquo(30 Jul)
middot FX weeklyTrump ldquospicesrdquo up EURUSD(23 Jul)
middot FX weeklyFlip-flop(16 Jul)
middot FX weeklyConsolidation time(9 Jul)
middot FX weeklyHawks R Us(2 Jul)
middot FX weeklyAnother lowflation week(25 Jun)
middot FX weeklyNo Fed put(18 Jun)
middot FX weeklyA bouncy dollar(11 Jun)
middot FX weeklyHeating up(4 Jun)
middot FX weeklySummertime sadness(28 May)
middot FX weeklySpecial counsel lessens Trumpbulence while OPEC looms(21 May)
middot FX weeklyAre China worries old hat(14 May)
middot FX weeklyInflation weekhellip(7 May)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle63454fx-weekly-blanchard-and-the-risk-of-overheating
Andreas Steno LarsenChief Global FXFI Strategistandreasstenolarsennordeacom+45 55 46 72 29
Martin EnlundGlobal Chief FX StrategistMartinEnlundnordeacom
e-marketsnordeacomarticle63454fx-weekly-blanchard-and-the-risk-of-overheating
Chart 7 The trade-weighted EUR is weaker than EURUSD indicates
For all that we would argue that while the downward-shifting dollar smile andor reignited double-deficitworries will eventually cap the downside in the EURUSD but for now we prefer to trade the pair with a sell-on-rally mindset for nimble players and we accordingly also take a nice profit in the short in USDCNY andUSDINR from the autumn of 2020
SEK Now when I say Who da mastah you say Ingrsquoves
For some reason we came to think of The Last Dragon - the epic 80s movie - when we started to ponder whatRiksbanks Ingves could have up his Kung-Fu sleeves at the next meeting or two We must remember that heis THE mastah at creating market volatility and he doesnt care about it Indeed ever since he was namedhead monk at the dark temple of the monetary arts at Brunkebergstorg the SEK has shown greater volatilityon days with a monetary policy decision - a pattern not at all evident in for instance the US
e-marketsnordeacomarticle63454fx-weekly-blanchard-and-the-risk-of-overheating
Chart 8 Ingves likes to create vol will he do it once again
Our main scenario for the Riksbanks February meeting is an unchanged policy rate rate path and QEprogram We expect QE details for Q2 2021 to indicate unchanged distribution of purchases over assettypes However we see a greater likelihood for a dovish surprise than a hawkish one which could be goodnews Swedish SGB (10y5y) flatteners (vs Germany) Read more about our SEK FI recommendations hereAnd whats more the Riksbankrsquos rate path might indicate a modest likelihood of rate cut as several boardmembers continue to mention this possibility That could be one (arguably cost-less in the Riksbankrsquos eyesway to proactively try to counter further SEK gains Receiving March-22 FRAs as a cheap lottery ticket alsocontinue to look interesting in our view
e-marketsnordeacomarticle63454fx-weekly-blanchard-and-the-risk-of-overheating
Chart 9 Higher Swedish inflation suggests SEK will still strengthen in H1 2021
In the end mastah Ingves is unlikely to be successful in countering the jabs (SEK purchases) by LeeroyJenkins (the FX market) but he might be able to cause some short-term bruising
NOK markets are still trading under the influence of tight structural liquidity most dramatically in Norwaywith periods of very elevated fixings and even negative structural liquidity before monetary policy operationsThe NOK FX swaps have been volatile this week and have started to hint of slightly higher NIBOR fixingstoward the end of the week The liquidity outlook is still very tight in the coming months but it could be thatthe most desperate Treasuries have already covered their funding needs The domestic component of NIBORwill probably remain elevated for a while yet also more than priced On the other hand USD money marketrates could move lower due to the above-mentioned liquidity influx in USD which could spill over to NIBOR asit is a swapped USD fixing per definition
Our running track-record (updated monthly here) is always attached here
Previous FX weeklies
FX weekly China Joe vs Mango Mussolini (24 Jan)
FX weekly Another one Bidens the dust (17 Jan)
FX weekly Peak bullishness (10 Jan)
FX weekly The year of the Ox (03 Jan)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle63454fx-weekly-blanchard-and-the-risk-of-overheating
FX weekly How will consensus be wrongfooted in 2021 (20 Dec)
FX weekly There are decades where nothing happens (13 Dec)
FX weekly Globalization back on the menu (6 Dec)
FX weekly Letrsquos hope that money printers are running on windmills (29 Nov)
FX weekly Mnuchin right or wrong (22 Nov)
FX weekly Politics is like sausages you dont want to watch either being made (15 Nov)
FX weekly Biden is not that reflationary (08 Nov)
FX weekly Are markets dumb or not (01 Nov)
FX weekly Lockdowners on Parade (25 Oct)
FX weekly Buy Green before Lagarde(18 Oct)
FX weekly The one on MMT (11 Oct)
FX weekly Corona Trump (04 Oct)
FX weekly Grin and Barrett (27 Sep)
FX weekly AIT is maybe not as dovish as we thought (20 Sep)
FX weekly AIT means easier financial conditions (13 Sep)
FX weekly Good luck Powell (23 Aug)
middotFX weekly USD to be put in the Jackson Hole (16 Aug)
middotFX weekly Peoples QE (09 Aug)
middotFX weekly USD will remain the No1 reserve currency (02 Aug)
middotFX weekly Kanye vs Trump vs Biden (05 Jul)
middotFX weekly Europe vs US 1-0 (28 Jun)
middotFX weekly Should we fear a second lock-down (21 Jun)
middotFX weekly USD liquidity is not going to be as ample (14 Jun)
middotFX weekly EURphoria and panic-YCC (07 Jun)
middotFX weekly An EU solution to a EUR problem (31 May)
middotFX weekly Time to buy a EUR lottery ticket (24 May)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle63454fx-weekly-blanchard-and-the-risk-of-overheating
middotFX weekly The trade deal was always born to die (17 May)
middotFX weekly How to trade NIRP coming to America (10 May)
middotFX weekly The rise of the Virolocracy (03 May)
middotFX weekly The EUR-tyranny of the minority (27 Apr)
middotFX weekly How to glue together the EUR-ship again (20 Apr)
middotFX weekly The flipside of Oprahnomics(13 Apr)
middotFX weekly USD needs to weaken or else Plaza Accord 20 is likely (06 Apr)
middotFX weekly Spraying the world with money instead of with disinfectant (29 Mar)
middotFX weekly There will be a crisis and new instruments will be created (22 Mar)
middotFX weekly Sweden and UK are the odd ones out (15 Mar)
middotFX weekly A big bucket of bummerballs (08 Mar)
middotFX weekly A preppers guide to trading Corona (01 Mar)
middotFX weekly Get ready for YCC (23 Feb)
middotFX weekly Mini Mike and the Mechanics (16 Feb)
middotFX weekly Feds balance sheet may need to grow more (09 Feb)
middotFX weekly Did the Virus originate in Norway (02 Feb)
middotFX weekly Mnuchin to trick Fed into more POMO (26 Jan)
middotFX weekly A green bubble to save the world (19 Jan)
middotFX weekly Bad news for NIRP-haters (12 Jan)
middotFX weekly Coupon-bearing securities smell of QE4 (05 Jan)
middotFX weekly The Riksbank is not a leading indicator of the ECB (22 Dec)
middotFX weekly Merry Christmas from the POTUS (15 Dec)
middotFX weekly Why this is not 20152016 all over again (08 Dec)
middotFX weekly Waiting for Godot (01 Dec)
middotFX weekly Get ready for Climate QE 2 (24 Nov)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle63454fx-weekly-blanchard-and-the-risk-of-overheating
middotFX weekly FX space yet to corroborate the reflationistas (17 Nov)
middotFX weekly Dont extrapolate the 60 Bs (10 Nov)
middotFX weekly 99 problems but the NOK aint one (3 Nov)
middotFX weekly Something big just happened (27 Oct)
middotFX weekly The QE train to nowhere (20 Oct)
middotFX weekly The 50 Brsquos caused the downturn so what about the 60 Brsquos (13 Oct)
middotFX weekly Is everything falling apart (6 Oct)
middotFX weekly A new path for USD liquidity (29 Sep)
middotFX weekly Soft QE in October (22 Sep)
middotFX weekly Welcome to the birthday party (15 Sep)
middotFX weekly An early santa rally (08 Sep)
middotFX weekly Can you smell the Sushi yet (01 Sep)
middotFX weekly Mo taris mo cuts but whorsquos Sho Nu (25 Aug)
middotFX weekly First havens then sell confetti (18 Aug)
middotFX weekly The liquidity doom loop (11 Aug)
middotFX weekly Buy Treasuries Short Scandis Wear Diamonds (04 Aug)
middotFX weekly Lagarde better practice her Rhine dancing (28 Jul)
middotFX weekly Go big or go home (21 Jul)
middotFX weekly The liquidity plot thickens (14 Jul)
middotFX weekly e-scooters are silly (07Jul)
middotFX weekly One is exausted the other is nuts(30 Jun)
middotFX weekly Time to bring in Steven Seagal 2 (23 Jun)
middotFX weekly Get ready for climate QE (16 Jun)
middotFX weekly Cut cut cut cut (09 Jun)
middotFX weekly The absolute madman (02 Jun)
middotFX weekly Will Xi be Nikithared (26 May)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle63454fx-weekly-blanchard-and-the-risk-of-overheating
middotFX weekly Trade war ping pong (19 May)
middotFX weekly A stairway to heaven for Krona shorts (12 May)
middotFX weekly Mnuchin to bail-out Fed (05 May)
middotFX weekly 3 reasons why the USD has been resurgent (28 Apr)
middotFX weekly No doomsday (yet) (21 Apr)
middotFX weekly In EUR we trust (14 Apr)
middotFX weekly Crouching Tiger Hidden Inflation Dragon (07 Apr)
middotFX weekly There is a smell of 2016 in the air (31 Mar)
middotFX weekly Dear Mr Powell (24 Mar)
middotFX weekly The devils advocate (17 Mar)
middotFX weekly Mario Bla-blaghi (10 Mar)
middotFX weekly Chinese reflation (3 Mar)
middotFX weekly QT cannot run forever (24 Feb)
middotFX weekly The USD is now in Trumps hands (17 Feb)
middotFX weekly Time to care about Euro area politics again (10 Feb)
middotFX weekly Is Powell turning into a MAGA-man (03 Feb)
middotFX weekly On climate angst and fake news (27 Jan)
middotFX weekly The Mnuchin bailout (20 Jan)
middotFX weekly FX weekly Cause Im a flip-flopper yes I am (13 Jan)
middotFX weekly FX weekly Treasury vs Fed (06 Jan)
middotFX weekly Top 4 FXMM trades for Q1-2019 (01 Jan)
middotFX weekly On liquidity witches and warlocks (23 Dec)
middotFX weekly Qui Navance pas recule (16 Dec)
middotFX weekly Burnin down the house (9 Dec)
middotFX weekly In Gut we Trust (2 Dec)
middotFX weekly Pikachu aint no hobbit (25 Nov)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle63454fx-weekly-blanchard-and-the-risk-of-overheating
middotFX weekly Powell pondering pausing (18 Nov)
middotFX weekly Another SOMA-test of 113 (11 Nov)
middotFX weekly 113 will hold unless the Republicans keep both chambers (04 Nov)
middotFX weekly HIA SOMA and REBA-days (28 Oct)
middotFX weekly The debt ceiling is a USD ceiling (21 Oct)
middotFX weekly Volatility makes odd bedfellows (14 Oct)
middotFX weekly No Di-Maionnaise for your EURs (yet) (7 Oct)
middotFX weekly Along came year-end (30 Sep)
middotFX weekly Twin deficit scare 2 (23 Sep)
middotFX weekly The Pope of Nope has spoken (16 Sep)
middotFX weekly Who wants to impeach a +60 ISM president (09 Sep)
middotFX weekly It is time to go long Scandis again (02 Sep)
middotFX weekly The Conte-Trump alliance (26 Aug)
middotFX weekly Fat-burning shorts (19 Aug)
middotFX weekly Time to call in Steven Seagal(12 Aug)
middotFX weekly Is the cyclical momentum over-priced (05 Aug)
middotFX weekly How to trade a cease-fire (29 Jul)
middotFX weekly Whats that curve (22 Jul)
middotFX weekly The China Factor (15 Jul)
middotFX weekly Take a short trade war breather (08 Jul)
middotFX weekly Trump will never 238 (01 Jul)
middotFX weekly The USD is the best carry currency in the world (24 Jun)
middotFX weekly Dollar to provide headwinds for earning estimates (17 Jun)
middotFX weekly Fire and fury risks for the USD (10 Jun)
middotFX weekly Its not only Italy (03 Jun)
middotFX weekly The Sumo SOMA days (27 May)
middotFX weekly EM wont be sprinting if the Fed is unprinting (20 May)e-marketsnordeacomarticle63454fx-weekly-blanchard-and-the-risk-of-overheating
middotFX weekly The two final nails in the dovish FOMC-con (13 May)
middotFX weekly Is there anything left in the USD bull-run (06 May)
middotFX weekly Dragon Energy (29 Apr)
middotFX weekly Relative curvature is the new king of FX (22 Apr)
middotFX weekly Why is EURUSD not trading lower (15 Apr)
middotFX weekly Like watching paint dry they said (08 Apr)
middotFX weekly The list of potential USD-positives is getting longer (01 Apr)
middotFX weekly 2 reasons why EURUSD has decoupled from rates spreads (25 Mar)
middotFX weekly Time to buy a USD lottery ticket (18 Mar)
middotFX weekly Taxation mirror on the wall who is the fairest of them all (11 Mar)
middotFX weekly Trumps game of chicken (04 Mar)
middotFX weekly Will the market neglect the clutch of canaries (25 Feb)
middotFX weekly Is the correlation break-down driven by FX hedges (18 Feb)
middotFX weekly The liquidity tide is ebbing (11 Feb)
middotFX weekly Hawkish spectacles (04 Feb)
middotFX weekly Who will stop EURUSD from moving higher (28 Jan)
middotFX weekly Did the Democrats dent the Dollar (21 Jan)
middotFX weekly Is 125 the new 120 (14 Jan)
middotFX weekly The euphoria rises (07 Jan)
middotFX weekly Paging Dr Pangloss (01 Jan)
middotFX weekly The R-star of Bethlehem (24 Dec)
middotFX weekly A numbers game (17 Dec)
middotFX weekly The year-end liquidty shrink (10 Dec)
middotFX weekly Three reasons why EURUSD isnt trading lower (03 Dec)
middotFX weekly Which currencies to sell if the housing downturn continues (26 Nov)
middotFX weekly The global industrial cycle is set to weaken (19 Nov)
middotFX weekly Is high-yield a canary in the global coal mine (12 Nov)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle63454fx-weekly-blanchard-and-the-risk-of-overheating
middotFX weekly Is this the end of the inflation convergence trade in EURUSD (5 Nov)
middotFX weekly Was that it for the EUR bulls (29 Oct)
middotFX weekly Hawks in opposition doves in charge (22 Oct)
middot FX weeklyContinued convergence or re-divergence(15 Oct)
middotFX weekly Thingsdont matter until they do(08 Oct)
middotFX weekly October seasonality is strong (01 Oct)
middotFX weekly ldquoIs 120 the new 115rdquo(24 Sep)
middot FX weekly Honey I shrunk the balance sheet(17 Sep)
middot FX weekly ldquoUSD liquidity will turn scarcer but whenrdquo (10 Sep)
middot FX weekly ldquoStrong currencies and inflationrdquo(3 Sep)
middot FX weekly ldquoUSD in the (Jackson) holerdquo (27 Aug)
middot FX weekly ldquoQ4 is the USD quarterrdquo(20 Aug)
middot FX weekly ldquoIn the year 2525rdquo(13 Aug)
middot FX weekly ldquoEURUSD ceiling or debt ceilingrdquo(6 Aug)
middot FX weeklyldquoElevator up stairs down ldquo(30 Jul)
middot FX weeklyTrump ldquospicesrdquo up EURUSD(23 Jul)
middot FX weeklyFlip-flop(16 Jul)
middot FX weeklyConsolidation time(9 Jul)
middot FX weeklyHawks R Us(2 Jul)
middot FX weeklyAnother lowflation week(25 Jun)
middot FX weeklyNo Fed put(18 Jun)
middot FX weeklyA bouncy dollar(11 Jun)
middot FX weeklyHeating up(4 Jun)
middot FX weeklySummertime sadness(28 May)
middot FX weeklySpecial counsel lessens Trumpbulence while OPEC looms(21 May)
middot FX weeklyAre China worries old hat(14 May)
middot FX weeklyInflation weekhellip(7 May)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle63454fx-weekly-blanchard-and-the-risk-of-overheating
Andreas Steno LarsenChief Global FXFI Strategistandreasstenolarsennordeacom+45 55 46 72 29
Martin EnlundGlobal Chief FX StrategistMartinEnlundnordeacom
e-marketsnordeacomarticle63454fx-weekly-blanchard-and-the-risk-of-overheating
Chart 8 Ingves likes to create vol will he do it once again
Our main scenario for the Riksbanks February meeting is an unchanged policy rate rate path and QEprogram We expect QE details for Q2 2021 to indicate unchanged distribution of purchases over assettypes However we see a greater likelihood for a dovish surprise than a hawkish one which could be goodnews Swedish SGB (10y5y) flatteners (vs Germany) Read more about our SEK FI recommendations hereAnd whats more the Riksbankrsquos rate path might indicate a modest likelihood of rate cut as several boardmembers continue to mention this possibility That could be one (arguably cost-less in the Riksbankrsquos eyesway to proactively try to counter further SEK gains Receiving March-22 FRAs as a cheap lottery ticket alsocontinue to look interesting in our view
e-marketsnordeacomarticle63454fx-weekly-blanchard-and-the-risk-of-overheating
Chart 9 Higher Swedish inflation suggests SEK will still strengthen in H1 2021
In the end mastah Ingves is unlikely to be successful in countering the jabs (SEK purchases) by LeeroyJenkins (the FX market) but he might be able to cause some short-term bruising
NOK markets are still trading under the influence of tight structural liquidity most dramatically in Norwaywith periods of very elevated fixings and even negative structural liquidity before monetary policy operationsThe NOK FX swaps have been volatile this week and have started to hint of slightly higher NIBOR fixingstoward the end of the week The liquidity outlook is still very tight in the coming months but it could be thatthe most desperate Treasuries have already covered their funding needs The domestic component of NIBORwill probably remain elevated for a while yet also more than priced On the other hand USD money marketrates could move lower due to the above-mentioned liquidity influx in USD which could spill over to NIBOR asit is a swapped USD fixing per definition
Our running track-record (updated monthly here) is always attached here
Previous FX weeklies
FX weekly China Joe vs Mango Mussolini (24 Jan)
FX weekly Another one Bidens the dust (17 Jan)
FX weekly Peak bullishness (10 Jan)
FX weekly The year of the Ox (03 Jan)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle63454fx-weekly-blanchard-and-the-risk-of-overheating
FX weekly How will consensus be wrongfooted in 2021 (20 Dec)
FX weekly There are decades where nothing happens (13 Dec)
FX weekly Globalization back on the menu (6 Dec)
FX weekly Letrsquos hope that money printers are running on windmills (29 Nov)
FX weekly Mnuchin right or wrong (22 Nov)
FX weekly Politics is like sausages you dont want to watch either being made (15 Nov)
FX weekly Biden is not that reflationary (08 Nov)
FX weekly Are markets dumb or not (01 Nov)
FX weekly Lockdowners on Parade (25 Oct)
FX weekly Buy Green before Lagarde(18 Oct)
FX weekly The one on MMT (11 Oct)
FX weekly Corona Trump (04 Oct)
FX weekly Grin and Barrett (27 Sep)
FX weekly AIT is maybe not as dovish as we thought (20 Sep)
FX weekly AIT means easier financial conditions (13 Sep)
FX weekly Good luck Powell (23 Aug)
middotFX weekly USD to be put in the Jackson Hole (16 Aug)
middotFX weekly Peoples QE (09 Aug)
middotFX weekly USD will remain the No1 reserve currency (02 Aug)
middotFX weekly Kanye vs Trump vs Biden (05 Jul)
middotFX weekly Europe vs US 1-0 (28 Jun)
middotFX weekly Should we fear a second lock-down (21 Jun)
middotFX weekly USD liquidity is not going to be as ample (14 Jun)
middotFX weekly EURphoria and panic-YCC (07 Jun)
middotFX weekly An EU solution to a EUR problem (31 May)
middotFX weekly Time to buy a EUR lottery ticket (24 May)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle63454fx-weekly-blanchard-and-the-risk-of-overheating
middotFX weekly The trade deal was always born to die (17 May)
middotFX weekly How to trade NIRP coming to America (10 May)
middotFX weekly The rise of the Virolocracy (03 May)
middotFX weekly The EUR-tyranny of the minority (27 Apr)
middotFX weekly How to glue together the EUR-ship again (20 Apr)
middotFX weekly The flipside of Oprahnomics(13 Apr)
middotFX weekly USD needs to weaken or else Plaza Accord 20 is likely (06 Apr)
middotFX weekly Spraying the world with money instead of with disinfectant (29 Mar)
middotFX weekly There will be a crisis and new instruments will be created (22 Mar)
middotFX weekly Sweden and UK are the odd ones out (15 Mar)
middotFX weekly A big bucket of bummerballs (08 Mar)
middotFX weekly A preppers guide to trading Corona (01 Mar)
middotFX weekly Get ready for YCC (23 Feb)
middotFX weekly Mini Mike and the Mechanics (16 Feb)
middotFX weekly Feds balance sheet may need to grow more (09 Feb)
middotFX weekly Did the Virus originate in Norway (02 Feb)
middotFX weekly Mnuchin to trick Fed into more POMO (26 Jan)
middotFX weekly A green bubble to save the world (19 Jan)
middotFX weekly Bad news for NIRP-haters (12 Jan)
middotFX weekly Coupon-bearing securities smell of QE4 (05 Jan)
middotFX weekly The Riksbank is not a leading indicator of the ECB (22 Dec)
middotFX weekly Merry Christmas from the POTUS (15 Dec)
middotFX weekly Why this is not 20152016 all over again (08 Dec)
middotFX weekly Waiting for Godot (01 Dec)
middotFX weekly Get ready for Climate QE 2 (24 Nov)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle63454fx-weekly-blanchard-and-the-risk-of-overheating
middotFX weekly FX space yet to corroborate the reflationistas (17 Nov)
middotFX weekly Dont extrapolate the 60 Bs (10 Nov)
middotFX weekly 99 problems but the NOK aint one (3 Nov)
middotFX weekly Something big just happened (27 Oct)
middotFX weekly The QE train to nowhere (20 Oct)
middotFX weekly The 50 Brsquos caused the downturn so what about the 60 Brsquos (13 Oct)
middotFX weekly Is everything falling apart (6 Oct)
middotFX weekly A new path for USD liquidity (29 Sep)
middotFX weekly Soft QE in October (22 Sep)
middotFX weekly Welcome to the birthday party (15 Sep)
middotFX weekly An early santa rally (08 Sep)
middotFX weekly Can you smell the Sushi yet (01 Sep)
middotFX weekly Mo taris mo cuts but whorsquos Sho Nu (25 Aug)
middotFX weekly First havens then sell confetti (18 Aug)
middotFX weekly The liquidity doom loop (11 Aug)
middotFX weekly Buy Treasuries Short Scandis Wear Diamonds (04 Aug)
middotFX weekly Lagarde better practice her Rhine dancing (28 Jul)
middotFX weekly Go big or go home (21 Jul)
middotFX weekly The liquidity plot thickens (14 Jul)
middotFX weekly e-scooters are silly (07Jul)
middotFX weekly One is exausted the other is nuts(30 Jun)
middotFX weekly Time to bring in Steven Seagal 2 (23 Jun)
middotFX weekly Get ready for climate QE (16 Jun)
middotFX weekly Cut cut cut cut (09 Jun)
middotFX weekly The absolute madman (02 Jun)
middotFX weekly Will Xi be Nikithared (26 May)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle63454fx-weekly-blanchard-and-the-risk-of-overheating
middotFX weekly Trade war ping pong (19 May)
middotFX weekly A stairway to heaven for Krona shorts (12 May)
middotFX weekly Mnuchin to bail-out Fed (05 May)
middotFX weekly 3 reasons why the USD has been resurgent (28 Apr)
middotFX weekly No doomsday (yet) (21 Apr)
middotFX weekly In EUR we trust (14 Apr)
middotFX weekly Crouching Tiger Hidden Inflation Dragon (07 Apr)
middotFX weekly There is a smell of 2016 in the air (31 Mar)
middotFX weekly Dear Mr Powell (24 Mar)
middotFX weekly The devils advocate (17 Mar)
middotFX weekly Mario Bla-blaghi (10 Mar)
middotFX weekly Chinese reflation (3 Mar)
middotFX weekly QT cannot run forever (24 Feb)
middotFX weekly The USD is now in Trumps hands (17 Feb)
middotFX weekly Time to care about Euro area politics again (10 Feb)
middotFX weekly Is Powell turning into a MAGA-man (03 Feb)
middotFX weekly On climate angst and fake news (27 Jan)
middotFX weekly The Mnuchin bailout (20 Jan)
middotFX weekly FX weekly Cause Im a flip-flopper yes I am (13 Jan)
middotFX weekly FX weekly Treasury vs Fed (06 Jan)
middotFX weekly Top 4 FXMM trades for Q1-2019 (01 Jan)
middotFX weekly On liquidity witches and warlocks (23 Dec)
middotFX weekly Qui Navance pas recule (16 Dec)
middotFX weekly Burnin down the house (9 Dec)
middotFX weekly In Gut we Trust (2 Dec)
middotFX weekly Pikachu aint no hobbit (25 Nov)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle63454fx-weekly-blanchard-and-the-risk-of-overheating
middotFX weekly Powell pondering pausing (18 Nov)
middotFX weekly Another SOMA-test of 113 (11 Nov)
middotFX weekly 113 will hold unless the Republicans keep both chambers (04 Nov)
middotFX weekly HIA SOMA and REBA-days (28 Oct)
middotFX weekly The debt ceiling is a USD ceiling (21 Oct)
middotFX weekly Volatility makes odd bedfellows (14 Oct)
middotFX weekly No Di-Maionnaise for your EURs (yet) (7 Oct)
middotFX weekly Along came year-end (30 Sep)
middotFX weekly Twin deficit scare 2 (23 Sep)
middotFX weekly The Pope of Nope has spoken (16 Sep)
middotFX weekly Who wants to impeach a +60 ISM president (09 Sep)
middotFX weekly It is time to go long Scandis again (02 Sep)
middotFX weekly The Conte-Trump alliance (26 Aug)
middotFX weekly Fat-burning shorts (19 Aug)
middotFX weekly Time to call in Steven Seagal(12 Aug)
middotFX weekly Is the cyclical momentum over-priced (05 Aug)
middotFX weekly How to trade a cease-fire (29 Jul)
middotFX weekly Whats that curve (22 Jul)
middotFX weekly The China Factor (15 Jul)
middotFX weekly Take a short trade war breather (08 Jul)
middotFX weekly Trump will never 238 (01 Jul)
middotFX weekly The USD is the best carry currency in the world (24 Jun)
middotFX weekly Dollar to provide headwinds for earning estimates (17 Jun)
middotFX weekly Fire and fury risks for the USD (10 Jun)
middotFX weekly Its not only Italy (03 Jun)
middotFX weekly The Sumo SOMA days (27 May)
middotFX weekly EM wont be sprinting if the Fed is unprinting (20 May)e-marketsnordeacomarticle63454fx-weekly-blanchard-and-the-risk-of-overheating
middotFX weekly The two final nails in the dovish FOMC-con (13 May)
middotFX weekly Is there anything left in the USD bull-run (06 May)
middotFX weekly Dragon Energy (29 Apr)
middotFX weekly Relative curvature is the new king of FX (22 Apr)
middotFX weekly Why is EURUSD not trading lower (15 Apr)
middotFX weekly Like watching paint dry they said (08 Apr)
middotFX weekly The list of potential USD-positives is getting longer (01 Apr)
middotFX weekly 2 reasons why EURUSD has decoupled from rates spreads (25 Mar)
middotFX weekly Time to buy a USD lottery ticket (18 Mar)
middotFX weekly Taxation mirror on the wall who is the fairest of them all (11 Mar)
middotFX weekly Trumps game of chicken (04 Mar)
middotFX weekly Will the market neglect the clutch of canaries (25 Feb)
middotFX weekly Is the correlation break-down driven by FX hedges (18 Feb)
middotFX weekly The liquidity tide is ebbing (11 Feb)
middotFX weekly Hawkish spectacles (04 Feb)
middotFX weekly Who will stop EURUSD from moving higher (28 Jan)
middotFX weekly Did the Democrats dent the Dollar (21 Jan)
middotFX weekly Is 125 the new 120 (14 Jan)
middotFX weekly The euphoria rises (07 Jan)
middotFX weekly Paging Dr Pangloss (01 Jan)
middotFX weekly The R-star of Bethlehem (24 Dec)
middotFX weekly A numbers game (17 Dec)
middotFX weekly The year-end liquidty shrink (10 Dec)
middotFX weekly Three reasons why EURUSD isnt trading lower (03 Dec)
middotFX weekly Which currencies to sell if the housing downturn continues (26 Nov)
middotFX weekly The global industrial cycle is set to weaken (19 Nov)
middotFX weekly Is high-yield a canary in the global coal mine (12 Nov)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle63454fx-weekly-blanchard-and-the-risk-of-overheating
middotFX weekly Is this the end of the inflation convergence trade in EURUSD (5 Nov)
middotFX weekly Was that it for the EUR bulls (29 Oct)
middotFX weekly Hawks in opposition doves in charge (22 Oct)
middot FX weeklyContinued convergence or re-divergence(15 Oct)
middotFX weekly Thingsdont matter until they do(08 Oct)
middotFX weekly October seasonality is strong (01 Oct)
middotFX weekly ldquoIs 120 the new 115rdquo(24 Sep)
middot FX weekly Honey I shrunk the balance sheet(17 Sep)
middot FX weekly ldquoUSD liquidity will turn scarcer but whenrdquo (10 Sep)
middot FX weekly ldquoStrong currencies and inflationrdquo(3 Sep)
middot FX weekly ldquoUSD in the (Jackson) holerdquo (27 Aug)
middot FX weekly ldquoQ4 is the USD quarterrdquo(20 Aug)
middot FX weekly ldquoIn the year 2525rdquo(13 Aug)
middot FX weekly ldquoEURUSD ceiling or debt ceilingrdquo(6 Aug)
middot FX weeklyldquoElevator up stairs down ldquo(30 Jul)
middot FX weeklyTrump ldquospicesrdquo up EURUSD(23 Jul)
middot FX weeklyFlip-flop(16 Jul)
middot FX weeklyConsolidation time(9 Jul)
middot FX weeklyHawks R Us(2 Jul)
middot FX weeklyAnother lowflation week(25 Jun)
middot FX weeklyNo Fed put(18 Jun)
middot FX weeklyA bouncy dollar(11 Jun)
middot FX weeklyHeating up(4 Jun)
middot FX weeklySummertime sadness(28 May)
middot FX weeklySpecial counsel lessens Trumpbulence while OPEC looms(21 May)
middot FX weeklyAre China worries old hat(14 May)
middot FX weeklyInflation weekhellip(7 May)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle63454fx-weekly-blanchard-and-the-risk-of-overheating
Andreas Steno LarsenChief Global FXFI Strategistandreasstenolarsennordeacom+45 55 46 72 29
Martin EnlundGlobal Chief FX StrategistMartinEnlundnordeacom
e-marketsnordeacomarticle63454fx-weekly-blanchard-and-the-risk-of-overheating
Chart 9 Higher Swedish inflation suggests SEK will still strengthen in H1 2021
In the end mastah Ingves is unlikely to be successful in countering the jabs (SEK purchases) by LeeroyJenkins (the FX market) but he might be able to cause some short-term bruising
NOK markets are still trading under the influence of tight structural liquidity most dramatically in Norwaywith periods of very elevated fixings and even negative structural liquidity before monetary policy operationsThe NOK FX swaps have been volatile this week and have started to hint of slightly higher NIBOR fixingstoward the end of the week The liquidity outlook is still very tight in the coming months but it could be thatthe most desperate Treasuries have already covered their funding needs The domestic component of NIBORwill probably remain elevated for a while yet also more than priced On the other hand USD money marketrates could move lower due to the above-mentioned liquidity influx in USD which could spill over to NIBOR asit is a swapped USD fixing per definition
Our running track-record (updated monthly here) is always attached here
Previous FX weeklies
FX weekly China Joe vs Mango Mussolini (24 Jan)
FX weekly Another one Bidens the dust (17 Jan)
FX weekly Peak bullishness (10 Jan)
FX weekly The year of the Ox (03 Jan)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle63454fx-weekly-blanchard-and-the-risk-of-overheating
FX weekly How will consensus be wrongfooted in 2021 (20 Dec)
FX weekly There are decades where nothing happens (13 Dec)
FX weekly Globalization back on the menu (6 Dec)
FX weekly Letrsquos hope that money printers are running on windmills (29 Nov)
FX weekly Mnuchin right or wrong (22 Nov)
FX weekly Politics is like sausages you dont want to watch either being made (15 Nov)
FX weekly Biden is not that reflationary (08 Nov)
FX weekly Are markets dumb or not (01 Nov)
FX weekly Lockdowners on Parade (25 Oct)
FX weekly Buy Green before Lagarde(18 Oct)
FX weekly The one on MMT (11 Oct)
FX weekly Corona Trump (04 Oct)
FX weekly Grin and Barrett (27 Sep)
FX weekly AIT is maybe not as dovish as we thought (20 Sep)
FX weekly AIT means easier financial conditions (13 Sep)
FX weekly Good luck Powell (23 Aug)
middotFX weekly USD to be put in the Jackson Hole (16 Aug)
middotFX weekly Peoples QE (09 Aug)
middotFX weekly USD will remain the No1 reserve currency (02 Aug)
middotFX weekly Kanye vs Trump vs Biden (05 Jul)
middotFX weekly Europe vs US 1-0 (28 Jun)
middotFX weekly Should we fear a second lock-down (21 Jun)
middotFX weekly USD liquidity is not going to be as ample (14 Jun)
middotFX weekly EURphoria and panic-YCC (07 Jun)
middotFX weekly An EU solution to a EUR problem (31 May)
middotFX weekly Time to buy a EUR lottery ticket (24 May)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle63454fx-weekly-blanchard-and-the-risk-of-overheating
middotFX weekly The trade deal was always born to die (17 May)
middotFX weekly How to trade NIRP coming to America (10 May)
middotFX weekly The rise of the Virolocracy (03 May)
middotFX weekly The EUR-tyranny of the minority (27 Apr)
middotFX weekly How to glue together the EUR-ship again (20 Apr)
middotFX weekly The flipside of Oprahnomics(13 Apr)
middotFX weekly USD needs to weaken or else Plaza Accord 20 is likely (06 Apr)
middotFX weekly Spraying the world with money instead of with disinfectant (29 Mar)
middotFX weekly There will be a crisis and new instruments will be created (22 Mar)
middotFX weekly Sweden and UK are the odd ones out (15 Mar)
middotFX weekly A big bucket of bummerballs (08 Mar)
middotFX weekly A preppers guide to trading Corona (01 Mar)
middotFX weekly Get ready for YCC (23 Feb)
middotFX weekly Mini Mike and the Mechanics (16 Feb)
middotFX weekly Feds balance sheet may need to grow more (09 Feb)
middotFX weekly Did the Virus originate in Norway (02 Feb)
middotFX weekly Mnuchin to trick Fed into more POMO (26 Jan)
middotFX weekly A green bubble to save the world (19 Jan)
middotFX weekly Bad news for NIRP-haters (12 Jan)
middotFX weekly Coupon-bearing securities smell of QE4 (05 Jan)
middotFX weekly The Riksbank is not a leading indicator of the ECB (22 Dec)
middotFX weekly Merry Christmas from the POTUS (15 Dec)
middotFX weekly Why this is not 20152016 all over again (08 Dec)
middotFX weekly Waiting for Godot (01 Dec)
middotFX weekly Get ready for Climate QE 2 (24 Nov)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle63454fx-weekly-blanchard-and-the-risk-of-overheating
middotFX weekly FX space yet to corroborate the reflationistas (17 Nov)
middotFX weekly Dont extrapolate the 60 Bs (10 Nov)
middotFX weekly 99 problems but the NOK aint one (3 Nov)
middotFX weekly Something big just happened (27 Oct)
middotFX weekly The QE train to nowhere (20 Oct)
middotFX weekly The 50 Brsquos caused the downturn so what about the 60 Brsquos (13 Oct)
middotFX weekly Is everything falling apart (6 Oct)
middotFX weekly A new path for USD liquidity (29 Sep)
middotFX weekly Soft QE in October (22 Sep)
middotFX weekly Welcome to the birthday party (15 Sep)
middotFX weekly An early santa rally (08 Sep)
middotFX weekly Can you smell the Sushi yet (01 Sep)
middotFX weekly Mo taris mo cuts but whorsquos Sho Nu (25 Aug)
middotFX weekly First havens then sell confetti (18 Aug)
middotFX weekly The liquidity doom loop (11 Aug)
middotFX weekly Buy Treasuries Short Scandis Wear Diamonds (04 Aug)
middotFX weekly Lagarde better practice her Rhine dancing (28 Jul)
middotFX weekly Go big or go home (21 Jul)
middotFX weekly The liquidity plot thickens (14 Jul)
middotFX weekly e-scooters are silly (07Jul)
middotFX weekly One is exausted the other is nuts(30 Jun)
middotFX weekly Time to bring in Steven Seagal 2 (23 Jun)
middotFX weekly Get ready for climate QE (16 Jun)
middotFX weekly Cut cut cut cut (09 Jun)
middotFX weekly The absolute madman (02 Jun)
middotFX weekly Will Xi be Nikithared (26 May)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle63454fx-weekly-blanchard-and-the-risk-of-overheating
middotFX weekly Trade war ping pong (19 May)
middotFX weekly A stairway to heaven for Krona shorts (12 May)
middotFX weekly Mnuchin to bail-out Fed (05 May)
middotFX weekly 3 reasons why the USD has been resurgent (28 Apr)
middotFX weekly No doomsday (yet) (21 Apr)
middotFX weekly In EUR we trust (14 Apr)
middotFX weekly Crouching Tiger Hidden Inflation Dragon (07 Apr)
middotFX weekly There is a smell of 2016 in the air (31 Mar)
middotFX weekly Dear Mr Powell (24 Mar)
middotFX weekly The devils advocate (17 Mar)
middotFX weekly Mario Bla-blaghi (10 Mar)
middotFX weekly Chinese reflation (3 Mar)
middotFX weekly QT cannot run forever (24 Feb)
middotFX weekly The USD is now in Trumps hands (17 Feb)
middotFX weekly Time to care about Euro area politics again (10 Feb)
middotFX weekly Is Powell turning into a MAGA-man (03 Feb)
middotFX weekly On climate angst and fake news (27 Jan)
middotFX weekly The Mnuchin bailout (20 Jan)
middotFX weekly FX weekly Cause Im a flip-flopper yes I am (13 Jan)
middotFX weekly FX weekly Treasury vs Fed (06 Jan)
middotFX weekly Top 4 FXMM trades for Q1-2019 (01 Jan)
middotFX weekly On liquidity witches and warlocks (23 Dec)
middotFX weekly Qui Navance pas recule (16 Dec)
middotFX weekly Burnin down the house (9 Dec)
middotFX weekly In Gut we Trust (2 Dec)
middotFX weekly Pikachu aint no hobbit (25 Nov)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle63454fx-weekly-blanchard-and-the-risk-of-overheating
middotFX weekly Powell pondering pausing (18 Nov)
middotFX weekly Another SOMA-test of 113 (11 Nov)
middotFX weekly 113 will hold unless the Republicans keep both chambers (04 Nov)
middotFX weekly HIA SOMA and REBA-days (28 Oct)
middotFX weekly The debt ceiling is a USD ceiling (21 Oct)
middotFX weekly Volatility makes odd bedfellows (14 Oct)
middotFX weekly No Di-Maionnaise for your EURs (yet) (7 Oct)
middotFX weekly Along came year-end (30 Sep)
middotFX weekly Twin deficit scare 2 (23 Sep)
middotFX weekly The Pope of Nope has spoken (16 Sep)
middotFX weekly Who wants to impeach a +60 ISM president (09 Sep)
middotFX weekly It is time to go long Scandis again (02 Sep)
middotFX weekly The Conte-Trump alliance (26 Aug)
middotFX weekly Fat-burning shorts (19 Aug)
middotFX weekly Time to call in Steven Seagal(12 Aug)
middotFX weekly Is the cyclical momentum over-priced (05 Aug)
middotFX weekly How to trade a cease-fire (29 Jul)
middotFX weekly Whats that curve (22 Jul)
middotFX weekly The China Factor (15 Jul)
middotFX weekly Take a short trade war breather (08 Jul)
middotFX weekly Trump will never 238 (01 Jul)
middotFX weekly The USD is the best carry currency in the world (24 Jun)
middotFX weekly Dollar to provide headwinds for earning estimates (17 Jun)
middotFX weekly Fire and fury risks for the USD (10 Jun)
middotFX weekly Its not only Italy (03 Jun)
middotFX weekly The Sumo SOMA days (27 May)
middotFX weekly EM wont be sprinting if the Fed is unprinting (20 May)e-marketsnordeacomarticle63454fx-weekly-blanchard-and-the-risk-of-overheating
middotFX weekly The two final nails in the dovish FOMC-con (13 May)
middotFX weekly Is there anything left in the USD bull-run (06 May)
middotFX weekly Dragon Energy (29 Apr)
middotFX weekly Relative curvature is the new king of FX (22 Apr)
middotFX weekly Why is EURUSD not trading lower (15 Apr)
middotFX weekly Like watching paint dry they said (08 Apr)
middotFX weekly The list of potential USD-positives is getting longer (01 Apr)
middotFX weekly 2 reasons why EURUSD has decoupled from rates spreads (25 Mar)
middotFX weekly Time to buy a USD lottery ticket (18 Mar)
middotFX weekly Taxation mirror on the wall who is the fairest of them all (11 Mar)
middotFX weekly Trumps game of chicken (04 Mar)
middotFX weekly Will the market neglect the clutch of canaries (25 Feb)
middotFX weekly Is the correlation break-down driven by FX hedges (18 Feb)
middotFX weekly The liquidity tide is ebbing (11 Feb)
middotFX weekly Hawkish spectacles (04 Feb)
middotFX weekly Who will stop EURUSD from moving higher (28 Jan)
middotFX weekly Did the Democrats dent the Dollar (21 Jan)
middotFX weekly Is 125 the new 120 (14 Jan)
middotFX weekly The euphoria rises (07 Jan)
middotFX weekly Paging Dr Pangloss (01 Jan)
middotFX weekly The R-star of Bethlehem (24 Dec)
middotFX weekly A numbers game (17 Dec)
middotFX weekly The year-end liquidty shrink (10 Dec)
middotFX weekly Three reasons why EURUSD isnt trading lower (03 Dec)
middotFX weekly Which currencies to sell if the housing downturn continues (26 Nov)
middotFX weekly The global industrial cycle is set to weaken (19 Nov)
middotFX weekly Is high-yield a canary in the global coal mine (12 Nov)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle63454fx-weekly-blanchard-and-the-risk-of-overheating
middotFX weekly Is this the end of the inflation convergence trade in EURUSD (5 Nov)
middotFX weekly Was that it for the EUR bulls (29 Oct)
middotFX weekly Hawks in opposition doves in charge (22 Oct)
middot FX weeklyContinued convergence or re-divergence(15 Oct)
middotFX weekly Thingsdont matter until they do(08 Oct)
middotFX weekly October seasonality is strong (01 Oct)
middotFX weekly ldquoIs 120 the new 115rdquo(24 Sep)
middot FX weekly Honey I shrunk the balance sheet(17 Sep)
middot FX weekly ldquoUSD liquidity will turn scarcer but whenrdquo (10 Sep)
middot FX weekly ldquoStrong currencies and inflationrdquo(3 Sep)
middot FX weekly ldquoUSD in the (Jackson) holerdquo (27 Aug)
middot FX weekly ldquoQ4 is the USD quarterrdquo(20 Aug)
middot FX weekly ldquoIn the year 2525rdquo(13 Aug)
middot FX weekly ldquoEURUSD ceiling or debt ceilingrdquo(6 Aug)
middot FX weeklyldquoElevator up stairs down ldquo(30 Jul)
middot FX weeklyTrump ldquospicesrdquo up EURUSD(23 Jul)
middot FX weeklyFlip-flop(16 Jul)
middot FX weeklyConsolidation time(9 Jul)
middot FX weeklyHawks R Us(2 Jul)
middot FX weeklyAnother lowflation week(25 Jun)
middot FX weeklyNo Fed put(18 Jun)
middot FX weeklyA bouncy dollar(11 Jun)
middot FX weeklyHeating up(4 Jun)
middot FX weeklySummertime sadness(28 May)
middot FX weeklySpecial counsel lessens Trumpbulence while OPEC looms(21 May)
middot FX weeklyAre China worries old hat(14 May)
middot FX weeklyInflation weekhellip(7 May)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle63454fx-weekly-blanchard-and-the-risk-of-overheating
Andreas Steno LarsenChief Global FXFI Strategistandreasstenolarsennordeacom+45 55 46 72 29
Martin EnlundGlobal Chief FX StrategistMartinEnlundnordeacom
e-marketsnordeacomarticle63454fx-weekly-blanchard-and-the-risk-of-overheating
FX weekly How will consensus be wrongfooted in 2021 (20 Dec)
FX weekly There are decades where nothing happens (13 Dec)
FX weekly Globalization back on the menu (6 Dec)
FX weekly Letrsquos hope that money printers are running on windmills (29 Nov)
FX weekly Mnuchin right or wrong (22 Nov)
FX weekly Politics is like sausages you dont want to watch either being made (15 Nov)
FX weekly Biden is not that reflationary (08 Nov)
FX weekly Are markets dumb or not (01 Nov)
FX weekly Lockdowners on Parade (25 Oct)
FX weekly Buy Green before Lagarde(18 Oct)
FX weekly The one on MMT (11 Oct)
FX weekly Corona Trump (04 Oct)
FX weekly Grin and Barrett (27 Sep)
FX weekly AIT is maybe not as dovish as we thought (20 Sep)
FX weekly AIT means easier financial conditions (13 Sep)
FX weekly Good luck Powell (23 Aug)
middotFX weekly USD to be put in the Jackson Hole (16 Aug)
middotFX weekly Peoples QE (09 Aug)
middotFX weekly USD will remain the No1 reserve currency (02 Aug)
middotFX weekly Kanye vs Trump vs Biden (05 Jul)
middotFX weekly Europe vs US 1-0 (28 Jun)
middotFX weekly Should we fear a second lock-down (21 Jun)
middotFX weekly USD liquidity is not going to be as ample (14 Jun)
middotFX weekly EURphoria and panic-YCC (07 Jun)
middotFX weekly An EU solution to a EUR problem (31 May)
middotFX weekly Time to buy a EUR lottery ticket (24 May)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle63454fx-weekly-blanchard-and-the-risk-of-overheating
middotFX weekly The trade deal was always born to die (17 May)
middotFX weekly How to trade NIRP coming to America (10 May)
middotFX weekly The rise of the Virolocracy (03 May)
middotFX weekly The EUR-tyranny of the minority (27 Apr)
middotFX weekly How to glue together the EUR-ship again (20 Apr)
middotFX weekly The flipside of Oprahnomics(13 Apr)
middotFX weekly USD needs to weaken or else Plaza Accord 20 is likely (06 Apr)
middotFX weekly Spraying the world with money instead of with disinfectant (29 Mar)
middotFX weekly There will be a crisis and new instruments will be created (22 Mar)
middotFX weekly Sweden and UK are the odd ones out (15 Mar)
middotFX weekly A big bucket of bummerballs (08 Mar)
middotFX weekly A preppers guide to trading Corona (01 Mar)
middotFX weekly Get ready for YCC (23 Feb)
middotFX weekly Mini Mike and the Mechanics (16 Feb)
middotFX weekly Feds balance sheet may need to grow more (09 Feb)
middotFX weekly Did the Virus originate in Norway (02 Feb)
middotFX weekly Mnuchin to trick Fed into more POMO (26 Jan)
middotFX weekly A green bubble to save the world (19 Jan)
middotFX weekly Bad news for NIRP-haters (12 Jan)
middotFX weekly Coupon-bearing securities smell of QE4 (05 Jan)
middotFX weekly The Riksbank is not a leading indicator of the ECB (22 Dec)
middotFX weekly Merry Christmas from the POTUS (15 Dec)
middotFX weekly Why this is not 20152016 all over again (08 Dec)
middotFX weekly Waiting for Godot (01 Dec)
middotFX weekly Get ready for Climate QE 2 (24 Nov)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle63454fx-weekly-blanchard-and-the-risk-of-overheating
middotFX weekly FX space yet to corroborate the reflationistas (17 Nov)
middotFX weekly Dont extrapolate the 60 Bs (10 Nov)
middotFX weekly 99 problems but the NOK aint one (3 Nov)
middotFX weekly Something big just happened (27 Oct)
middotFX weekly The QE train to nowhere (20 Oct)
middotFX weekly The 50 Brsquos caused the downturn so what about the 60 Brsquos (13 Oct)
middotFX weekly Is everything falling apart (6 Oct)
middotFX weekly A new path for USD liquidity (29 Sep)
middotFX weekly Soft QE in October (22 Sep)
middotFX weekly Welcome to the birthday party (15 Sep)
middotFX weekly An early santa rally (08 Sep)
middotFX weekly Can you smell the Sushi yet (01 Sep)
middotFX weekly Mo taris mo cuts but whorsquos Sho Nu (25 Aug)
middotFX weekly First havens then sell confetti (18 Aug)
middotFX weekly The liquidity doom loop (11 Aug)
middotFX weekly Buy Treasuries Short Scandis Wear Diamonds (04 Aug)
middotFX weekly Lagarde better practice her Rhine dancing (28 Jul)
middotFX weekly Go big or go home (21 Jul)
middotFX weekly The liquidity plot thickens (14 Jul)
middotFX weekly e-scooters are silly (07Jul)
middotFX weekly One is exausted the other is nuts(30 Jun)
middotFX weekly Time to bring in Steven Seagal 2 (23 Jun)
middotFX weekly Get ready for climate QE (16 Jun)
middotFX weekly Cut cut cut cut (09 Jun)
middotFX weekly The absolute madman (02 Jun)
middotFX weekly Will Xi be Nikithared (26 May)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle63454fx-weekly-blanchard-and-the-risk-of-overheating
middotFX weekly Trade war ping pong (19 May)
middotFX weekly A stairway to heaven for Krona shorts (12 May)
middotFX weekly Mnuchin to bail-out Fed (05 May)
middotFX weekly 3 reasons why the USD has been resurgent (28 Apr)
middotFX weekly No doomsday (yet) (21 Apr)
middotFX weekly In EUR we trust (14 Apr)
middotFX weekly Crouching Tiger Hidden Inflation Dragon (07 Apr)
middotFX weekly There is a smell of 2016 in the air (31 Mar)
middotFX weekly Dear Mr Powell (24 Mar)
middotFX weekly The devils advocate (17 Mar)
middotFX weekly Mario Bla-blaghi (10 Mar)
middotFX weekly Chinese reflation (3 Mar)
middotFX weekly QT cannot run forever (24 Feb)
middotFX weekly The USD is now in Trumps hands (17 Feb)
middotFX weekly Time to care about Euro area politics again (10 Feb)
middotFX weekly Is Powell turning into a MAGA-man (03 Feb)
middotFX weekly On climate angst and fake news (27 Jan)
middotFX weekly The Mnuchin bailout (20 Jan)
middotFX weekly FX weekly Cause Im a flip-flopper yes I am (13 Jan)
middotFX weekly FX weekly Treasury vs Fed (06 Jan)
middotFX weekly Top 4 FXMM trades for Q1-2019 (01 Jan)
middotFX weekly On liquidity witches and warlocks (23 Dec)
middotFX weekly Qui Navance pas recule (16 Dec)
middotFX weekly Burnin down the house (9 Dec)
middotFX weekly In Gut we Trust (2 Dec)
middotFX weekly Pikachu aint no hobbit (25 Nov)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle63454fx-weekly-blanchard-and-the-risk-of-overheating
middotFX weekly Powell pondering pausing (18 Nov)
middotFX weekly Another SOMA-test of 113 (11 Nov)
middotFX weekly 113 will hold unless the Republicans keep both chambers (04 Nov)
middotFX weekly HIA SOMA and REBA-days (28 Oct)
middotFX weekly The debt ceiling is a USD ceiling (21 Oct)
middotFX weekly Volatility makes odd bedfellows (14 Oct)
middotFX weekly No Di-Maionnaise for your EURs (yet) (7 Oct)
middotFX weekly Along came year-end (30 Sep)
middotFX weekly Twin deficit scare 2 (23 Sep)
middotFX weekly The Pope of Nope has spoken (16 Sep)
middotFX weekly Who wants to impeach a +60 ISM president (09 Sep)
middotFX weekly It is time to go long Scandis again (02 Sep)
middotFX weekly The Conte-Trump alliance (26 Aug)
middotFX weekly Fat-burning shorts (19 Aug)
middotFX weekly Time to call in Steven Seagal(12 Aug)
middotFX weekly Is the cyclical momentum over-priced (05 Aug)
middotFX weekly How to trade a cease-fire (29 Jul)
middotFX weekly Whats that curve (22 Jul)
middotFX weekly The China Factor (15 Jul)
middotFX weekly Take a short trade war breather (08 Jul)
middotFX weekly Trump will never 238 (01 Jul)
middotFX weekly The USD is the best carry currency in the world (24 Jun)
middotFX weekly Dollar to provide headwinds for earning estimates (17 Jun)
middotFX weekly Fire and fury risks for the USD (10 Jun)
middotFX weekly Its not only Italy (03 Jun)
middotFX weekly The Sumo SOMA days (27 May)
middotFX weekly EM wont be sprinting if the Fed is unprinting (20 May)e-marketsnordeacomarticle63454fx-weekly-blanchard-and-the-risk-of-overheating
middotFX weekly The two final nails in the dovish FOMC-con (13 May)
middotFX weekly Is there anything left in the USD bull-run (06 May)
middotFX weekly Dragon Energy (29 Apr)
middotFX weekly Relative curvature is the new king of FX (22 Apr)
middotFX weekly Why is EURUSD not trading lower (15 Apr)
middotFX weekly Like watching paint dry they said (08 Apr)
middotFX weekly The list of potential USD-positives is getting longer (01 Apr)
middotFX weekly 2 reasons why EURUSD has decoupled from rates spreads (25 Mar)
middotFX weekly Time to buy a USD lottery ticket (18 Mar)
middotFX weekly Taxation mirror on the wall who is the fairest of them all (11 Mar)
middotFX weekly Trumps game of chicken (04 Mar)
middotFX weekly Will the market neglect the clutch of canaries (25 Feb)
middotFX weekly Is the correlation break-down driven by FX hedges (18 Feb)
middotFX weekly The liquidity tide is ebbing (11 Feb)
middotFX weekly Hawkish spectacles (04 Feb)
middotFX weekly Who will stop EURUSD from moving higher (28 Jan)
middotFX weekly Did the Democrats dent the Dollar (21 Jan)
middotFX weekly Is 125 the new 120 (14 Jan)
middotFX weekly The euphoria rises (07 Jan)
middotFX weekly Paging Dr Pangloss (01 Jan)
middotFX weekly The R-star of Bethlehem (24 Dec)
middotFX weekly A numbers game (17 Dec)
middotFX weekly The year-end liquidty shrink (10 Dec)
middotFX weekly Three reasons why EURUSD isnt trading lower (03 Dec)
middotFX weekly Which currencies to sell if the housing downturn continues (26 Nov)
middotFX weekly The global industrial cycle is set to weaken (19 Nov)
middotFX weekly Is high-yield a canary in the global coal mine (12 Nov)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle63454fx-weekly-blanchard-and-the-risk-of-overheating
middotFX weekly Is this the end of the inflation convergence trade in EURUSD (5 Nov)
middotFX weekly Was that it for the EUR bulls (29 Oct)
middotFX weekly Hawks in opposition doves in charge (22 Oct)
middot FX weeklyContinued convergence or re-divergence(15 Oct)
middotFX weekly Thingsdont matter until they do(08 Oct)
middotFX weekly October seasonality is strong (01 Oct)
middotFX weekly ldquoIs 120 the new 115rdquo(24 Sep)
middot FX weekly Honey I shrunk the balance sheet(17 Sep)
middot FX weekly ldquoUSD liquidity will turn scarcer but whenrdquo (10 Sep)
middot FX weekly ldquoStrong currencies and inflationrdquo(3 Sep)
middot FX weekly ldquoUSD in the (Jackson) holerdquo (27 Aug)
middot FX weekly ldquoQ4 is the USD quarterrdquo(20 Aug)
middot FX weekly ldquoIn the year 2525rdquo(13 Aug)
middot FX weekly ldquoEURUSD ceiling or debt ceilingrdquo(6 Aug)
middot FX weeklyldquoElevator up stairs down ldquo(30 Jul)
middot FX weeklyTrump ldquospicesrdquo up EURUSD(23 Jul)
middot FX weeklyFlip-flop(16 Jul)
middot FX weeklyConsolidation time(9 Jul)
middot FX weeklyHawks R Us(2 Jul)
middot FX weeklyAnother lowflation week(25 Jun)
middot FX weeklyNo Fed put(18 Jun)
middot FX weeklyA bouncy dollar(11 Jun)
middot FX weeklyHeating up(4 Jun)
middot FX weeklySummertime sadness(28 May)
middot FX weeklySpecial counsel lessens Trumpbulence while OPEC looms(21 May)
middot FX weeklyAre China worries old hat(14 May)
middot FX weeklyInflation weekhellip(7 May)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle63454fx-weekly-blanchard-and-the-risk-of-overheating
Andreas Steno LarsenChief Global FXFI Strategistandreasstenolarsennordeacom+45 55 46 72 29
Martin EnlundGlobal Chief FX StrategistMartinEnlundnordeacom
e-marketsnordeacomarticle63454fx-weekly-blanchard-and-the-risk-of-overheating
middotFX weekly The trade deal was always born to die (17 May)
middotFX weekly How to trade NIRP coming to America (10 May)
middotFX weekly The rise of the Virolocracy (03 May)
middotFX weekly The EUR-tyranny of the minority (27 Apr)
middotFX weekly How to glue together the EUR-ship again (20 Apr)
middotFX weekly The flipside of Oprahnomics(13 Apr)
middotFX weekly USD needs to weaken or else Plaza Accord 20 is likely (06 Apr)
middotFX weekly Spraying the world with money instead of with disinfectant (29 Mar)
middotFX weekly There will be a crisis and new instruments will be created (22 Mar)
middotFX weekly Sweden and UK are the odd ones out (15 Mar)
middotFX weekly A big bucket of bummerballs (08 Mar)
middotFX weekly A preppers guide to trading Corona (01 Mar)
middotFX weekly Get ready for YCC (23 Feb)
middotFX weekly Mini Mike and the Mechanics (16 Feb)
middotFX weekly Feds balance sheet may need to grow more (09 Feb)
middotFX weekly Did the Virus originate in Norway (02 Feb)
middotFX weekly Mnuchin to trick Fed into more POMO (26 Jan)
middotFX weekly A green bubble to save the world (19 Jan)
middotFX weekly Bad news for NIRP-haters (12 Jan)
middotFX weekly Coupon-bearing securities smell of QE4 (05 Jan)
middotFX weekly The Riksbank is not a leading indicator of the ECB (22 Dec)
middotFX weekly Merry Christmas from the POTUS (15 Dec)
middotFX weekly Why this is not 20152016 all over again (08 Dec)
middotFX weekly Waiting for Godot (01 Dec)
middotFX weekly Get ready for Climate QE 2 (24 Nov)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle63454fx-weekly-blanchard-and-the-risk-of-overheating
middotFX weekly FX space yet to corroborate the reflationistas (17 Nov)
middotFX weekly Dont extrapolate the 60 Bs (10 Nov)
middotFX weekly 99 problems but the NOK aint one (3 Nov)
middotFX weekly Something big just happened (27 Oct)
middotFX weekly The QE train to nowhere (20 Oct)
middotFX weekly The 50 Brsquos caused the downturn so what about the 60 Brsquos (13 Oct)
middotFX weekly Is everything falling apart (6 Oct)
middotFX weekly A new path for USD liquidity (29 Sep)
middotFX weekly Soft QE in October (22 Sep)
middotFX weekly Welcome to the birthday party (15 Sep)
middotFX weekly An early santa rally (08 Sep)
middotFX weekly Can you smell the Sushi yet (01 Sep)
middotFX weekly Mo taris mo cuts but whorsquos Sho Nu (25 Aug)
middotFX weekly First havens then sell confetti (18 Aug)
middotFX weekly The liquidity doom loop (11 Aug)
middotFX weekly Buy Treasuries Short Scandis Wear Diamonds (04 Aug)
middotFX weekly Lagarde better practice her Rhine dancing (28 Jul)
middotFX weekly Go big or go home (21 Jul)
middotFX weekly The liquidity plot thickens (14 Jul)
middotFX weekly e-scooters are silly (07Jul)
middotFX weekly One is exausted the other is nuts(30 Jun)
middotFX weekly Time to bring in Steven Seagal 2 (23 Jun)
middotFX weekly Get ready for climate QE (16 Jun)
middotFX weekly Cut cut cut cut (09 Jun)
middotFX weekly The absolute madman (02 Jun)
middotFX weekly Will Xi be Nikithared (26 May)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle63454fx-weekly-blanchard-and-the-risk-of-overheating
middotFX weekly Trade war ping pong (19 May)
middotFX weekly A stairway to heaven for Krona shorts (12 May)
middotFX weekly Mnuchin to bail-out Fed (05 May)
middotFX weekly 3 reasons why the USD has been resurgent (28 Apr)
middotFX weekly No doomsday (yet) (21 Apr)
middotFX weekly In EUR we trust (14 Apr)
middotFX weekly Crouching Tiger Hidden Inflation Dragon (07 Apr)
middotFX weekly There is a smell of 2016 in the air (31 Mar)
middotFX weekly Dear Mr Powell (24 Mar)
middotFX weekly The devils advocate (17 Mar)
middotFX weekly Mario Bla-blaghi (10 Mar)
middotFX weekly Chinese reflation (3 Mar)
middotFX weekly QT cannot run forever (24 Feb)
middotFX weekly The USD is now in Trumps hands (17 Feb)
middotFX weekly Time to care about Euro area politics again (10 Feb)
middotFX weekly Is Powell turning into a MAGA-man (03 Feb)
middotFX weekly On climate angst and fake news (27 Jan)
middotFX weekly The Mnuchin bailout (20 Jan)
middotFX weekly FX weekly Cause Im a flip-flopper yes I am (13 Jan)
middotFX weekly FX weekly Treasury vs Fed (06 Jan)
middotFX weekly Top 4 FXMM trades for Q1-2019 (01 Jan)
middotFX weekly On liquidity witches and warlocks (23 Dec)
middotFX weekly Qui Navance pas recule (16 Dec)
middotFX weekly Burnin down the house (9 Dec)
middotFX weekly In Gut we Trust (2 Dec)
middotFX weekly Pikachu aint no hobbit (25 Nov)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle63454fx-weekly-blanchard-and-the-risk-of-overheating
middotFX weekly Powell pondering pausing (18 Nov)
middotFX weekly Another SOMA-test of 113 (11 Nov)
middotFX weekly 113 will hold unless the Republicans keep both chambers (04 Nov)
middotFX weekly HIA SOMA and REBA-days (28 Oct)
middotFX weekly The debt ceiling is a USD ceiling (21 Oct)
middotFX weekly Volatility makes odd bedfellows (14 Oct)
middotFX weekly No Di-Maionnaise for your EURs (yet) (7 Oct)
middotFX weekly Along came year-end (30 Sep)
middotFX weekly Twin deficit scare 2 (23 Sep)
middotFX weekly The Pope of Nope has spoken (16 Sep)
middotFX weekly Who wants to impeach a +60 ISM president (09 Sep)
middotFX weekly It is time to go long Scandis again (02 Sep)
middotFX weekly The Conte-Trump alliance (26 Aug)
middotFX weekly Fat-burning shorts (19 Aug)
middotFX weekly Time to call in Steven Seagal(12 Aug)
middotFX weekly Is the cyclical momentum over-priced (05 Aug)
middotFX weekly How to trade a cease-fire (29 Jul)
middotFX weekly Whats that curve (22 Jul)
middotFX weekly The China Factor (15 Jul)
middotFX weekly Take a short trade war breather (08 Jul)
middotFX weekly Trump will never 238 (01 Jul)
middotFX weekly The USD is the best carry currency in the world (24 Jun)
middotFX weekly Dollar to provide headwinds for earning estimates (17 Jun)
middotFX weekly Fire and fury risks for the USD (10 Jun)
middotFX weekly Its not only Italy (03 Jun)
middotFX weekly The Sumo SOMA days (27 May)
middotFX weekly EM wont be sprinting if the Fed is unprinting (20 May)e-marketsnordeacomarticle63454fx-weekly-blanchard-and-the-risk-of-overheating
middotFX weekly The two final nails in the dovish FOMC-con (13 May)
middotFX weekly Is there anything left in the USD bull-run (06 May)
middotFX weekly Dragon Energy (29 Apr)
middotFX weekly Relative curvature is the new king of FX (22 Apr)
middotFX weekly Why is EURUSD not trading lower (15 Apr)
middotFX weekly Like watching paint dry they said (08 Apr)
middotFX weekly The list of potential USD-positives is getting longer (01 Apr)
middotFX weekly 2 reasons why EURUSD has decoupled from rates spreads (25 Mar)
middotFX weekly Time to buy a USD lottery ticket (18 Mar)
middotFX weekly Taxation mirror on the wall who is the fairest of them all (11 Mar)
middotFX weekly Trumps game of chicken (04 Mar)
middotFX weekly Will the market neglect the clutch of canaries (25 Feb)
middotFX weekly Is the correlation break-down driven by FX hedges (18 Feb)
middotFX weekly The liquidity tide is ebbing (11 Feb)
middotFX weekly Hawkish spectacles (04 Feb)
middotFX weekly Who will stop EURUSD from moving higher (28 Jan)
middotFX weekly Did the Democrats dent the Dollar (21 Jan)
middotFX weekly Is 125 the new 120 (14 Jan)
middotFX weekly The euphoria rises (07 Jan)
middotFX weekly Paging Dr Pangloss (01 Jan)
middotFX weekly The R-star of Bethlehem (24 Dec)
middotFX weekly A numbers game (17 Dec)
middotFX weekly The year-end liquidty shrink (10 Dec)
middotFX weekly Three reasons why EURUSD isnt trading lower (03 Dec)
middotFX weekly Which currencies to sell if the housing downturn continues (26 Nov)
middotFX weekly The global industrial cycle is set to weaken (19 Nov)
middotFX weekly Is high-yield a canary in the global coal mine (12 Nov)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle63454fx-weekly-blanchard-and-the-risk-of-overheating
middotFX weekly Is this the end of the inflation convergence trade in EURUSD (5 Nov)
middotFX weekly Was that it for the EUR bulls (29 Oct)
middotFX weekly Hawks in opposition doves in charge (22 Oct)
middot FX weeklyContinued convergence or re-divergence(15 Oct)
middotFX weekly Thingsdont matter until they do(08 Oct)
middotFX weekly October seasonality is strong (01 Oct)
middotFX weekly ldquoIs 120 the new 115rdquo(24 Sep)
middot FX weekly Honey I shrunk the balance sheet(17 Sep)
middot FX weekly ldquoUSD liquidity will turn scarcer but whenrdquo (10 Sep)
middot FX weekly ldquoStrong currencies and inflationrdquo(3 Sep)
middot FX weekly ldquoUSD in the (Jackson) holerdquo (27 Aug)
middot FX weekly ldquoQ4 is the USD quarterrdquo(20 Aug)
middot FX weekly ldquoIn the year 2525rdquo(13 Aug)
middot FX weekly ldquoEURUSD ceiling or debt ceilingrdquo(6 Aug)
middot FX weeklyldquoElevator up stairs down ldquo(30 Jul)
middot FX weeklyTrump ldquospicesrdquo up EURUSD(23 Jul)
middot FX weeklyFlip-flop(16 Jul)
middot FX weeklyConsolidation time(9 Jul)
middot FX weeklyHawks R Us(2 Jul)
middot FX weeklyAnother lowflation week(25 Jun)
middot FX weeklyNo Fed put(18 Jun)
middot FX weeklyA bouncy dollar(11 Jun)
middot FX weeklyHeating up(4 Jun)
middot FX weeklySummertime sadness(28 May)
middot FX weeklySpecial counsel lessens Trumpbulence while OPEC looms(21 May)
middot FX weeklyAre China worries old hat(14 May)
middot FX weeklyInflation weekhellip(7 May)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle63454fx-weekly-blanchard-and-the-risk-of-overheating
Andreas Steno LarsenChief Global FXFI Strategistandreasstenolarsennordeacom+45 55 46 72 29
Martin EnlundGlobal Chief FX StrategistMartinEnlundnordeacom
e-marketsnordeacomarticle63454fx-weekly-blanchard-and-the-risk-of-overheating
middotFX weekly FX space yet to corroborate the reflationistas (17 Nov)
middotFX weekly Dont extrapolate the 60 Bs (10 Nov)
middotFX weekly 99 problems but the NOK aint one (3 Nov)
middotFX weekly Something big just happened (27 Oct)
middotFX weekly The QE train to nowhere (20 Oct)
middotFX weekly The 50 Brsquos caused the downturn so what about the 60 Brsquos (13 Oct)
middotFX weekly Is everything falling apart (6 Oct)
middotFX weekly A new path for USD liquidity (29 Sep)
middotFX weekly Soft QE in October (22 Sep)
middotFX weekly Welcome to the birthday party (15 Sep)
middotFX weekly An early santa rally (08 Sep)
middotFX weekly Can you smell the Sushi yet (01 Sep)
middotFX weekly Mo taris mo cuts but whorsquos Sho Nu (25 Aug)
middotFX weekly First havens then sell confetti (18 Aug)
middotFX weekly The liquidity doom loop (11 Aug)
middotFX weekly Buy Treasuries Short Scandis Wear Diamonds (04 Aug)
middotFX weekly Lagarde better practice her Rhine dancing (28 Jul)
middotFX weekly Go big or go home (21 Jul)
middotFX weekly The liquidity plot thickens (14 Jul)
middotFX weekly e-scooters are silly (07Jul)
middotFX weekly One is exausted the other is nuts(30 Jun)
middotFX weekly Time to bring in Steven Seagal 2 (23 Jun)
middotFX weekly Get ready for climate QE (16 Jun)
middotFX weekly Cut cut cut cut (09 Jun)
middotFX weekly The absolute madman (02 Jun)
middotFX weekly Will Xi be Nikithared (26 May)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle63454fx-weekly-blanchard-and-the-risk-of-overheating
middotFX weekly Trade war ping pong (19 May)
middotFX weekly A stairway to heaven for Krona shorts (12 May)
middotFX weekly Mnuchin to bail-out Fed (05 May)
middotFX weekly 3 reasons why the USD has been resurgent (28 Apr)
middotFX weekly No doomsday (yet) (21 Apr)
middotFX weekly In EUR we trust (14 Apr)
middotFX weekly Crouching Tiger Hidden Inflation Dragon (07 Apr)
middotFX weekly There is a smell of 2016 in the air (31 Mar)
middotFX weekly Dear Mr Powell (24 Mar)
middotFX weekly The devils advocate (17 Mar)
middotFX weekly Mario Bla-blaghi (10 Mar)
middotFX weekly Chinese reflation (3 Mar)
middotFX weekly QT cannot run forever (24 Feb)
middotFX weekly The USD is now in Trumps hands (17 Feb)
middotFX weekly Time to care about Euro area politics again (10 Feb)
middotFX weekly Is Powell turning into a MAGA-man (03 Feb)
middotFX weekly On climate angst and fake news (27 Jan)
middotFX weekly The Mnuchin bailout (20 Jan)
middotFX weekly FX weekly Cause Im a flip-flopper yes I am (13 Jan)
middotFX weekly FX weekly Treasury vs Fed (06 Jan)
middotFX weekly Top 4 FXMM trades for Q1-2019 (01 Jan)
middotFX weekly On liquidity witches and warlocks (23 Dec)
middotFX weekly Qui Navance pas recule (16 Dec)
middotFX weekly Burnin down the house (9 Dec)
middotFX weekly In Gut we Trust (2 Dec)
middotFX weekly Pikachu aint no hobbit (25 Nov)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle63454fx-weekly-blanchard-and-the-risk-of-overheating
middotFX weekly Powell pondering pausing (18 Nov)
middotFX weekly Another SOMA-test of 113 (11 Nov)
middotFX weekly 113 will hold unless the Republicans keep both chambers (04 Nov)
middotFX weekly HIA SOMA and REBA-days (28 Oct)
middotFX weekly The debt ceiling is a USD ceiling (21 Oct)
middotFX weekly Volatility makes odd bedfellows (14 Oct)
middotFX weekly No Di-Maionnaise for your EURs (yet) (7 Oct)
middotFX weekly Along came year-end (30 Sep)
middotFX weekly Twin deficit scare 2 (23 Sep)
middotFX weekly The Pope of Nope has spoken (16 Sep)
middotFX weekly Who wants to impeach a +60 ISM president (09 Sep)
middotFX weekly It is time to go long Scandis again (02 Sep)
middotFX weekly The Conte-Trump alliance (26 Aug)
middotFX weekly Fat-burning shorts (19 Aug)
middotFX weekly Time to call in Steven Seagal(12 Aug)
middotFX weekly Is the cyclical momentum over-priced (05 Aug)
middotFX weekly How to trade a cease-fire (29 Jul)
middotFX weekly Whats that curve (22 Jul)
middotFX weekly The China Factor (15 Jul)
middotFX weekly Take a short trade war breather (08 Jul)
middotFX weekly Trump will never 238 (01 Jul)
middotFX weekly The USD is the best carry currency in the world (24 Jun)
middotFX weekly Dollar to provide headwinds for earning estimates (17 Jun)
middotFX weekly Fire and fury risks for the USD (10 Jun)
middotFX weekly Its not only Italy (03 Jun)
middotFX weekly The Sumo SOMA days (27 May)
middotFX weekly EM wont be sprinting if the Fed is unprinting (20 May)e-marketsnordeacomarticle63454fx-weekly-blanchard-and-the-risk-of-overheating
middotFX weekly The two final nails in the dovish FOMC-con (13 May)
middotFX weekly Is there anything left in the USD bull-run (06 May)
middotFX weekly Dragon Energy (29 Apr)
middotFX weekly Relative curvature is the new king of FX (22 Apr)
middotFX weekly Why is EURUSD not trading lower (15 Apr)
middotFX weekly Like watching paint dry they said (08 Apr)
middotFX weekly The list of potential USD-positives is getting longer (01 Apr)
middotFX weekly 2 reasons why EURUSD has decoupled from rates spreads (25 Mar)
middotFX weekly Time to buy a USD lottery ticket (18 Mar)
middotFX weekly Taxation mirror on the wall who is the fairest of them all (11 Mar)
middotFX weekly Trumps game of chicken (04 Mar)
middotFX weekly Will the market neglect the clutch of canaries (25 Feb)
middotFX weekly Is the correlation break-down driven by FX hedges (18 Feb)
middotFX weekly The liquidity tide is ebbing (11 Feb)
middotFX weekly Hawkish spectacles (04 Feb)
middotFX weekly Who will stop EURUSD from moving higher (28 Jan)
middotFX weekly Did the Democrats dent the Dollar (21 Jan)
middotFX weekly Is 125 the new 120 (14 Jan)
middotFX weekly The euphoria rises (07 Jan)
middotFX weekly Paging Dr Pangloss (01 Jan)
middotFX weekly The R-star of Bethlehem (24 Dec)
middotFX weekly A numbers game (17 Dec)
middotFX weekly The year-end liquidty shrink (10 Dec)
middotFX weekly Three reasons why EURUSD isnt trading lower (03 Dec)
middotFX weekly Which currencies to sell if the housing downturn continues (26 Nov)
middotFX weekly The global industrial cycle is set to weaken (19 Nov)
middotFX weekly Is high-yield a canary in the global coal mine (12 Nov)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle63454fx-weekly-blanchard-and-the-risk-of-overheating
middotFX weekly Is this the end of the inflation convergence trade in EURUSD (5 Nov)
middotFX weekly Was that it for the EUR bulls (29 Oct)
middotFX weekly Hawks in opposition doves in charge (22 Oct)
middot FX weeklyContinued convergence or re-divergence(15 Oct)
middotFX weekly Thingsdont matter until they do(08 Oct)
middotFX weekly October seasonality is strong (01 Oct)
middotFX weekly ldquoIs 120 the new 115rdquo(24 Sep)
middot FX weekly Honey I shrunk the balance sheet(17 Sep)
middot FX weekly ldquoUSD liquidity will turn scarcer but whenrdquo (10 Sep)
middot FX weekly ldquoStrong currencies and inflationrdquo(3 Sep)
middot FX weekly ldquoUSD in the (Jackson) holerdquo (27 Aug)
middot FX weekly ldquoQ4 is the USD quarterrdquo(20 Aug)
middot FX weekly ldquoIn the year 2525rdquo(13 Aug)
middot FX weekly ldquoEURUSD ceiling or debt ceilingrdquo(6 Aug)
middot FX weeklyldquoElevator up stairs down ldquo(30 Jul)
middot FX weeklyTrump ldquospicesrdquo up EURUSD(23 Jul)
middot FX weeklyFlip-flop(16 Jul)
middot FX weeklyConsolidation time(9 Jul)
middot FX weeklyHawks R Us(2 Jul)
middot FX weeklyAnother lowflation week(25 Jun)
middot FX weeklyNo Fed put(18 Jun)
middot FX weeklyA bouncy dollar(11 Jun)
middot FX weeklyHeating up(4 Jun)
middot FX weeklySummertime sadness(28 May)
middot FX weeklySpecial counsel lessens Trumpbulence while OPEC looms(21 May)
middot FX weeklyAre China worries old hat(14 May)
middot FX weeklyInflation weekhellip(7 May)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle63454fx-weekly-blanchard-and-the-risk-of-overheating
Andreas Steno LarsenChief Global FXFI Strategistandreasstenolarsennordeacom+45 55 46 72 29
Martin EnlundGlobal Chief FX StrategistMartinEnlundnordeacom
e-marketsnordeacomarticle63454fx-weekly-blanchard-and-the-risk-of-overheating
middotFX weekly Trade war ping pong (19 May)
middotFX weekly A stairway to heaven for Krona shorts (12 May)
middotFX weekly Mnuchin to bail-out Fed (05 May)
middotFX weekly 3 reasons why the USD has been resurgent (28 Apr)
middotFX weekly No doomsday (yet) (21 Apr)
middotFX weekly In EUR we trust (14 Apr)
middotFX weekly Crouching Tiger Hidden Inflation Dragon (07 Apr)
middotFX weekly There is a smell of 2016 in the air (31 Mar)
middotFX weekly Dear Mr Powell (24 Mar)
middotFX weekly The devils advocate (17 Mar)
middotFX weekly Mario Bla-blaghi (10 Mar)
middotFX weekly Chinese reflation (3 Mar)
middotFX weekly QT cannot run forever (24 Feb)
middotFX weekly The USD is now in Trumps hands (17 Feb)
middotFX weekly Time to care about Euro area politics again (10 Feb)
middotFX weekly Is Powell turning into a MAGA-man (03 Feb)
middotFX weekly On climate angst and fake news (27 Jan)
middotFX weekly The Mnuchin bailout (20 Jan)
middotFX weekly FX weekly Cause Im a flip-flopper yes I am (13 Jan)
middotFX weekly FX weekly Treasury vs Fed (06 Jan)
middotFX weekly Top 4 FXMM trades for Q1-2019 (01 Jan)
middotFX weekly On liquidity witches and warlocks (23 Dec)
middotFX weekly Qui Navance pas recule (16 Dec)
middotFX weekly Burnin down the house (9 Dec)
middotFX weekly In Gut we Trust (2 Dec)
middotFX weekly Pikachu aint no hobbit (25 Nov)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle63454fx-weekly-blanchard-and-the-risk-of-overheating
middotFX weekly Powell pondering pausing (18 Nov)
middotFX weekly Another SOMA-test of 113 (11 Nov)
middotFX weekly 113 will hold unless the Republicans keep both chambers (04 Nov)
middotFX weekly HIA SOMA and REBA-days (28 Oct)
middotFX weekly The debt ceiling is a USD ceiling (21 Oct)
middotFX weekly Volatility makes odd bedfellows (14 Oct)
middotFX weekly No Di-Maionnaise for your EURs (yet) (7 Oct)
middotFX weekly Along came year-end (30 Sep)
middotFX weekly Twin deficit scare 2 (23 Sep)
middotFX weekly The Pope of Nope has spoken (16 Sep)
middotFX weekly Who wants to impeach a +60 ISM president (09 Sep)
middotFX weekly It is time to go long Scandis again (02 Sep)
middotFX weekly The Conte-Trump alliance (26 Aug)
middotFX weekly Fat-burning shorts (19 Aug)
middotFX weekly Time to call in Steven Seagal(12 Aug)
middotFX weekly Is the cyclical momentum over-priced (05 Aug)
middotFX weekly How to trade a cease-fire (29 Jul)
middotFX weekly Whats that curve (22 Jul)
middotFX weekly The China Factor (15 Jul)
middotFX weekly Take a short trade war breather (08 Jul)
middotFX weekly Trump will never 238 (01 Jul)
middotFX weekly The USD is the best carry currency in the world (24 Jun)
middotFX weekly Dollar to provide headwinds for earning estimates (17 Jun)
middotFX weekly Fire and fury risks for the USD (10 Jun)
middotFX weekly Its not only Italy (03 Jun)
middotFX weekly The Sumo SOMA days (27 May)
middotFX weekly EM wont be sprinting if the Fed is unprinting (20 May)e-marketsnordeacomarticle63454fx-weekly-blanchard-and-the-risk-of-overheating
middotFX weekly The two final nails in the dovish FOMC-con (13 May)
middotFX weekly Is there anything left in the USD bull-run (06 May)
middotFX weekly Dragon Energy (29 Apr)
middotFX weekly Relative curvature is the new king of FX (22 Apr)
middotFX weekly Why is EURUSD not trading lower (15 Apr)
middotFX weekly Like watching paint dry they said (08 Apr)
middotFX weekly The list of potential USD-positives is getting longer (01 Apr)
middotFX weekly 2 reasons why EURUSD has decoupled from rates spreads (25 Mar)
middotFX weekly Time to buy a USD lottery ticket (18 Mar)
middotFX weekly Taxation mirror on the wall who is the fairest of them all (11 Mar)
middotFX weekly Trumps game of chicken (04 Mar)
middotFX weekly Will the market neglect the clutch of canaries (25 Feb)
middotFX weekly Is the correlation break-down driven by FX hedges (18 Feb)
middotFX weekly The liquidity tide is ebbing (11 Feb)
middotFX weekly Hawkish spectacles (04 Feb)
middotFX weekly Who will stop EURUSD from moving higher (28 Jan)
middotFX weekly Did the Democrats dent the Dollar (21 Jan)
middotFX weekly Is 125 the new 120 (14 Jan)
middotFX weekly The euphoria rises (07 Jan)
middotFX weekly Paging Dr Pangloss (01 Jan)
middotFX weekly The R-star of Bethlehem (24 Dec)
middotFX weekly A numbers game (17 Dec)
middotFX weekly The year-end liquidty shrink (10 Dec)
middotFX weekly Three reasons why EURUSD isnt trading lower (03 Dec)
middotFX weekly Which currencies to sell if the housing downturn continues (26 Nov)
middotFX weekly The global industrial cycle is set to weaken (19 Nov)
middotFX weekly Is high-yield a canary in the global coal mine (12 Nov)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle63454fx-weekly-blanchard-and-the-risk-of-overheating
middotFX weekly Is this the end of the inflation convergence trade in EURUSD (5 Nov)
middotFX weekly Was that it for the EUR bulls (29 Oct)
middotFX weekly Hawks in opposition doves in charge (22 Oct)
middot FX weeklyContinued convergence or re-divergence(15 Oct)
middotFX weekly Thingsdont matter until they do(08 Oct)
middotFX weekly October seasonality is strong (01 Oct)
middotFX weekly ldquoIs 120 the new 115rdquo(24 Sep)
middot FX weekly Honey I shrunk the balance sheet(17 Sep)
middot FX weekly ldquoUSD liquidity will turn scarcer but whenrdquo (10 Sep)
middot FX weekly ldquoStrong currencies and inflationrdquo(3 Sep)
middot FX weekly ldquoUSD in the (Jackson) holerdquo (27 Aug)
middot FX weekly ldquoQ4 is the USD quarterrdquo(20 Aug)
middot FX weekly ldquoIn the year 2525rdquo(13 Aug)
middot FX weekly ldquoEURUSD ceiling or debt ceilingrdquo(6 Aug)
middot FX weeklyldquoElevator up stairs down ldquo(30 Jul)
middot FX weeklyTrump ldquospicesrdquo up EURUSD(23 Jul)
middot FX weeklyFlip-flop(16 Jul)
middot FX weeklyConsolidation time(9 Jul)
middot FX weeklyHawks R Us(2 Jul)
middot FX weeklyAnother lowflation week(25 Jun)
middot FX weeklyNo Fed put(18 Jun)
middot FX weeklyA bouncy dollar(11 Jun)
middot FX weeklyHeating up(4 Jun)
middot FX weeklySummertime sadness(28 May)
middot FX weeklySpecial counsel lessens Trumpbulence while OPEC looms(21 May)
middot FX weeklyAre China worries old hat(14 May)
middot FX weeklyInflation weekhellip(7 May)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle63454fx-weekly-blanchard-and-the-risk-of-overheating
Andreas Steno LarsenChief Global FXFI Strategistandreasstenolarsennordeacom+45 55 46 72 29
Martin EnlundGlobal Chief FX StrategistMartinEnlundnordeacom
e-marketsnordeacomarticle63454fx-weekly-blanchard-and-the-risk-of-overheating
middotFX weekly Powell pondering pausing (18 Nov)
middotFX weekly Another SOMA-test of 113 (11 Nov)
middotFX weekly 113 will hold unless the Republicans keep both chambers (04 Nov)
middotFX weekly HIA SOMA and REBA-days (28 Oct)
middotFX weekly The debt ceiling is a USD ceiling (21 Oct)
middotFX weekly Volatility makes odd bedfellows (14 Oct)
middotFX weekly No Di-Maionnaise for your EURs (yet) (7 Oct)
middotFX weekly Along came year-end (30 Sep)
middotFX weekly Twin deficit scare 2 (23 Sep)
middotFX weekly The Pope of Nope has spoken (16 Sep)
middotFX weekly Who wants to impeach a +60 ISM president (09 Sep)
middotFX weekly It is time to go long Scandis again (02 Sep)
middotFX weekly The Conte-Trump alliance (26 Aug)
middotFX weekly Fat-burning shorts (19 Aug)
middotFX weekly Time to call in Steven Seagal(12 Aug)
middotFX weekly Is the cyclical momentum over-priced (05 Aug)
middotFX weekly How to trade a cease-fire (29 Jul)
middotFX weekly Whats that curve (22 Jul)
middotFX weekly The China Factor (15 Jul)
middotFX weekly Take a short trade war breather (08 Jul)
middotFX weekly Trump will never 238 (01 Jul)
middotFX weekly The USD is the best carry currency in the world (24 Jun)
middotFX weekly Dollar to provide headwinds for earning estimates (17 Jun)
middotFX weekly Fire and fury risks for the USD (10 Jun)
middotFX weekly Its not only Italy (03 Jun)
middotFX weekly The Sumo SOMA days (27 May)
middotFX weekly EM wont be sprinting if the Fed is unprinting (20 May)e-marketsnordeacomarticle63454fx-weekly-blanchard-and-the-risk-of-overheating
middotFX weekly The two final nails in the dovish FOMC-con (13 May)
middotFX weekly Is there anything left in the USD bull-run (06 May)
middotFX weekly Dragon Energy (29 Apr)
middotFX weekly Relative curvature is the new king of FX (22 Apr)
middotFX weekly Why is EURUSD not trading lower (15 Apr)
middotFX weekly Like watching paint dry they said (08 Apr)
middotFX weekly The list of potential USD-positives is getting longer (01 Apr)
middotFX weekly 2 reasons why EURUSD has decoupled from rates spreads (25 Mar)
middotFX weekly Time to buy a USD lottery ticket (18 Mar)
middotFX weekly Taxation mirror on the wall who is the fairest of them all (11 Mar)
middotFX weekly Trumps game of chicken (04 Mar)
middotFX weekly Will the market neglect the clutch of canaries (25 Feb)
middotFX weekly Is the correlation break-down driven by FX hedges (18 Feb)
middotFX weekly The liquidity tide is ebbing (11 Feb)
middotFX weekly Hawkish spectacles (04 Feb)
middotFX weekly Who will stop EURUSD from moving higher (28 Jan)
middotFX weekly Did the Democrats dent the Dollar (21 Jan)
middotFX weekly Is 125 the new 120 (14 Jan)
middotFX weekly The euphoria rises (07 Jan)
middotFX weekly Paging Dr Pangloss (01 Jan)
middotFX weekly The R-star of Bethlehem (24 Dec)
middotFX weekly A numbers game (17 Dec)
middotFX weekly The year-end liquidty shrink (10 Dec)
middotFX weekly Three reasons why EURUSD isnt trading lower (03 Dec)
middotFX weekly Which currencies to sell if the housing downturn continues (26 Nov)
middotFX weekly The global industrial cycle is set to weaken (19 Nov)
middotFX weekly Is high-yield a canary in the global coal mine (12 Nov)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle63454fx-weekly-blanchard-and-the-risk-of-overheating
middotFX weekly Is this the end of the inflation convergence trade in EURUSD (5 Nov)
middotFX weekly Was that it for the EUR bulls (29 Oct)
middotFX weekly Hawks in opposition doves in charge (22 Oct)
middot FX weeklyContinued convergence or re-divergence(15 Oct)
middotFX weekly Thingsdont matter until they do(08 Oct)
middotFX weekly October seasonality is strong (01 Oct)
middotFX weekly ldquoIs 120 the new 115rdquo(24 Sep)
middot FX weekly Honey I shrunk the balance sheet(17 Sep)
middot FX weekly ldquoUSD liquidity will turn scarcer but whenrdquo (10 Sep)
middot FX weekly ldquoStrong currencies and inflationrdquo(3 Sep)
middot FX weekly ldquoUSD in the (Jackson) holerdquo (27 Aug)
middot FX weekly ldquoQ4 is the USD quarterrdquo(20 Aug)
middot FX weekly ldquoIn the year 2525rdquo(13 Aug)
middot FX weekly ldquoEURUSD ceiling or debt ceilingrdquo(6 Aug)
middot FX weeklyldquoElevator up stairs down ldquo(30 Jul)
middot FX weeklyTrump ldquospicesrdquo up EURUSD(23 Jul)
middot FX weeklyFlip-flop(16 Jul)
middot FX weeklyConsolidation time(9 Jul)
middot FX weeklyHawks R Us(2 Jul)
middot FX weeklyAnother lowflation week(25 Jun)
middot FX weeklyNo Fed put(18 Jun)
middot FX weeklyA bouncy dollar(11 Jun)
middot FX weeklyHeating up(4 Jun)
middot FX weeklySummertime sadness(28 May)
middot FX weeklySpecial counsel lessens Trumpbulence while OPEC looms(21 May)
middot FX weeklyAre China worries old hat(14 May)
middot FX weeklyInflation weekhellip(7 May)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle63454fx-weekly-blanchard-and-the-risk-of-overheating
Andreas Steno LarsenChief Global FXFI Strategistandreasstenolarsennordeacom+45 55 46 72 29
Martin EnlundGlobal Chief FX StrategistMartinEnlundnordeacom
e-marketsnordeacomarticle63454fx-weekly-blanchard-and-the-risk-of-overheating
middotFX weekly The two final nails in the dovish FOMC-con (13 May)
middotFX weekly Is there anything left in the USD bull-run (06 May)
middotFX weekly Dragon Energy (29 Apr)
middotFX weekly Relative curvature is the new king of FX (22 Apr)
middotFX weekly Why is EURUSD not trading lower (15 Apr)
middotFX weekly Like watching paint dry they said (08 Apr)
middotFX weekly The list of potential USD-positives is getting longer (01 Apr)
middotFX weekly 2 reasons why EURUSD has decoupled from rates spreads (25 Mar)
middotFX weekly Time to buy a USD lottery ticket (18 Mar)
middotFX weekly Taxation mirror on the wall who is the fairest of them all (11 Mar)
middotFX weekly Trumps game of chicken (04 Mar)
middotFX weekly Will the market neglect the clutch of canaries (25 Feb)
middotFX weekly Is the correlation break-down driven by FX hedges (18 Feb)
middotFX weekly The liquidity tide is ebbing (11 Feb)
middotFX weekly Hawkish spectacles (04 Feb)
middotFX weekly Who will stop EURUSD from moving higher (28 Jan)
middotFX weekly Did the Democrats dent the Dollar (21 Jan)
middotFX weekly Is 125 the new 120 (14 Jan)
middotFX weekly The euphoria rises (07 Jan)
middotFX weekly Paging Dr Pangloss (01 Jan)
middotFX weekly The R-star of Bethlehem (24 Dec)
middotFX weekly A numbers game (17 Dec)
middotFX weekly The year-end liquidty shrink (10 Dec)
middotFX weekly Three reasons why EURUSD isnt trading lower (03 Dec)
middotFX weekly Which currencies to sell if the housing downturn continues (26 Nov)
middotFX weekly The global industrial cycle is set to weaken (19 Nov)
middotFX weekly Is high-yield a canary in the global coal mine (12 Nov)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle63454fx-weekly-blanchard-and-the-risk-of-overheating
middotFX weekly Is this the end of the inflation convergence trade in EURUSD (5 Nov)
middotFX weekly Was that it for the EUR bulls (29 Oct)
middotFX weekly Hawks in opposition doves in charge (22 Oct)
middot FX weeklyContinued convergence or re-divergence(15 Oct)
middotFX weekly Thingsdont matter until they do(08 Oct)
middotFX weekly October seasonality is strong (01 Oct)
middotFX weekly ldquoIs 120 the new 115rdquo(24 Sep)
middot FX weekly Honey I shrunk the balance sheet(17 Sep)
middot FX weekly ldquoUSD liquidity will turn scarcer but whenrdquo (10 Sep)
middot FX weekly ldquoStrong currencies and inflationrdquo(3 Sep)
middot FX weekly ldquoUSD in the (Jackson) holerdquo (27 Aug)
middot FX weekly ldquoQ4 is the USD quarterrdquo(20 Aug)
middot FX weekly ldquoIn the year 2525rdquo(13 Aug)
middot FX weekly ldquoEURUSD ceiling or debt ceilingrdquo(6 Aug)
middot FX weeklyldquoElevator up stairs down ldquo(30 Jul)
middot FX weeklyTrump ldquospicesrdquo up EURUSD(23 Jul)
middot FX weeklyFlip-flop(16 Jul)
middot FX weeklyConsolidation time(9 Jul)
middot FX weeklyHawks R Us(2 Jul)
middot FX weeklyAnother lowflation week(25 Jun)
middot FX weeklyNo Fed put(18 Jun)
middot FX weeklyA bouncy dollar(11 Jun)
middot FX weeklyHeating up(4 Jun)
middot FX weeklySummertime sadness(28 May)
middot FX weeklySpecial counsel lessens Trumpbulence while OPEC looms(21 May)
middot FX weeklyAre China worries old hat(14 May)
middot FX weeklyInflation weekhellip(7 May)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle63454fx-weekly-blanchard-and-the-risk-of-overheating
Andreas Steno LarsenChief Global FXFI Strategistandreasstenolarsennordeacom+45 55 46 72 29
Martin EnlundGlobal Chief FX StrategistMartinEnlundnordeacom
e-marketsnordeacomarticle63454fx-weekly-blanchard-and-the-risk-of-overheating
middotFX weekly Is this the end of the inflation convergence trade in EURUSD (5 Nov)
middotFX weekly Was that it for the EUR bulls (29 Oct)
middotFX weekly Hawks in opposition doves in charge (22 Oct)
middot FX weeklyContinued convergence or re-divergence(15 Oct)
middotFX weekly Thingsdont matter until they do(08 Oct)
middotFX weekly October seasonality is strong (01 Oct)
middotFX weekly ldquoIs 120 the new 115rdquo(24 Sep)
middot FX weekly Honey I shrunk the balance sheet(17 Sep)
middot FX weekly ldquoUSD liquidity will turn scarcer but whenrdquo (10 Sep)
middot FX weekly ldquoStrong currencies and inflationrdquo(3 Sep)
middot FX weekly ldquoUSD in the (Jackson) holerdquo (27 Aug)
middot FX weekly ldquoQ4 is the USD quarterrdquo(20 Aug)
middot FX weekly ldquoIn the year 2525rdquo(13 Aug)
middot FX weekly ldquoEURUSD ceiling or debt ceilingrdquo(6 Aug)
middot FX weeklyldquoElevator up stairs down ldquo(30 Jul)
middot FX weeklyTrump ldquospicesrdquo up EURUSD(23 Jul)
middot FX weeklyFlip-flop(16 Jul)
middot FX weeklyConsolidation time(9 Jul)
middot FX weeklyHawks R Us(2 Jul)
middot FX weeklyAnother lowflation week(25 Jun)
middot FX weeklyNo Fed put(18 Jun)
middot FX weeklyA bouncy dollar(11 Jun)
middot FX weeklyHeating up(4 Jun)
middot FX weeklySummertime sadness(28 May)
middot FX weeklySpecial counsel lessens Trumpbulence while OPEC looms(21 May)
middot FX weeklyAre China worries old hat(14 May)
middot FX weeklyInflation weekhellip(7 May)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle63454fx-weekly-blanchard-and-the-risk-of-overheating
Andreas Steno LarsenChief Global FXFI Strategistandreasstenolarsennordeacom+45 55 46 72 29
Martin EnlundGlobal Chief FX StrategistMartinEnlundnordeacom
e-marketsnordeacomarticle63454fx-weekly-blanchard-and-the-risk-of-overheating
Andreas Steno LarsenChief Global FXFI Strategistandreasstenolarsennordeacom+45 55 46 72 29
Martin EnlundGlobal Chief FX StrategistMartinEnlundnordeacom
e-marketsnordeacomarticle63454fx-weekly-blanchard-and-the-risk-of-overheating
