FX weekly: A fast Lane to taper before the Fed?
18
29 August 2021 FX weekly: A fast Lane to taper before the Fed? Andreas Steno Larsen | Martin Enlund It is no longer carved in stone that the Fed will taper ahead of the ECB. Lanes comments opened the door for a technical taper in September from the ECB as they look at financial conditions both when they go up and down. If you want to receive a copy of FX weekly directly in your inbox, you can sign up via this link. Table 1. Our current convictions Quote of the week “You cannot think about the volume of the APP independently of the volume of net bond supply.” - ECB Chief Economist, Phillip Lane It seems like it caught a lot of people by surprise when the ECB chief economist Lane suddenly admitted to the ECB following financial conditionson the loose side and not only on the tight side. In plain English, Lane basically promised to calibrate the QE program to financial conditions BOTH in an upwards and in a downwards direction, which currently means that the recent new all-time lows seen in EUR real rates could be used as an argument to tone down PEPP-purchases a bit maybe already in September. Bear in mind that the ECB will never explicitly call it tapering, rather just technical adjustments to the program. In that sense, Lane was almost more concrete than Powell was at the virtual Jackson Hole, since we are still left in the dark on what exact measures or thresholds that could lead the Fed to take the final step towards tapering, even if it remains a base case for the FOMC this year. We imagine that 800k-1000k monthly job reports over the coming months are what they are after, but it is still not an explicit target for the FOMC except for a few of the members of the rates committee. e-markets.nordea.com/article/67382/fx-weekly-a-fast-lane-to-taper-before-the-fed
Transcript of FX weekly: A fast Lane to taper before the Fed?
29 August 2021
FX weekly A fast Laneto taper before the Fed
Andreas Steno Larsen | Martin Enlund
It is no longer carved in stone that the Fed will taper ahead of the ECB Lanescomments opened the door for a technical taper in September from the ECBas they look at financial conditions both when they go up and down
If you want to receive a copy of FX weekly directly in your inbox you can sign up via this link
Table 1 Our current convictions
Quote of the week
ldquoYou cannot think about the volume of the APP independently of the volume of net bond supplyrdquo- ECB Chief Economist Phillip Lane
It seems like it caught a lot of people by surprise when the ECB chief economist Lane suddenly admittedto the ECB following financial conditionson the loose side and not only on the tight side In plain EnglishLane basically promised to calibrate the QE program to financial conditions BOTH in an upwards and in adownwards direction which currently means that the recent new all-time lows seen in EUR real rates couldbe used as an argument to tone down PEPP-purchases a bit maybe already in September Bear in mind thatthe ECB will never explicitly call it tapering rather just technical adjustments to the program
In that sense Lane was almost more concrete than Powell was at the virtual Jackson Hole since we are stillleft in the dark on what exact measures or thresholds that could lead the Fed to take the final step towardstapering even if it remains a base case for the FOMC this year We imagine that 800k-1000k monthly jobreports over the coming months are what they are after but it is still not an explicit target for the FOMCexcept for a few of the members of the rates committee
e-marketsnordeacomarticle67382fx-weekly-a-fast-lane-to-taper-before-the-fed
Chart 1 If the ECB steps up and allows EUR real rates to increase a bit then EURUSD mayavoid a big sell-o
In practice ECBs Lane promised BOTH a CAP and a FLOOR to EUR interest rates but obviously the focus ison the floor since it i) apparently carries a news value and ii) we are trading at the bottom of recent tradingyield-ranges in most EUR bonds For now markets are likely to chase the ECB taper story even if Lane alsopromised a cap to interest rates So ultimately we suggest that you 1) play the range in EUR swaps and 2)sell EUR rates volatility and 3) re-sell EURUSD if it rallies again because of Lanersquos speech Levels just below119 are interesting to be short from again but for now the risk is on the upside in the cross
We noted two sequences from Lanersquos speech which may be worthwhile reading again for everyone withjust a tad of an exposure in the Euro area First ldquoWe donrsquot respond day by day but we did make a consciousdecision in March to step up purchases and we made a conscious decision in June that we should maintainthat pace In the upcoming meetings whether September or December wersquoll have to take into account themovements in interest ratesrdquo Lane has been vocal on actual financing conditions dictating the ECB balancesheet before but it is the first time that he refers to them when they have moved to extremely benign levelsAgain there is BOTH a CAP and a FLOOR in EUR interest rates
Second ldquoA second consideration is net bond supply You cannot think about the volume of the APPindependently of the volume of net bond supply The relatively high fiscal deficits that we saw last year andthis year will not be lasting in the coming years but the scale of deficits may remain higher than the pre-pandemic levelsrdquo which was an overlooked component of Lanersquos speech as the focus remained glued to theindirect tapering signal of the ldquofinancial conditions commentrdquo Lane basically admits to net supply being aguiding star for the APP program that will continue to run after the PEPP program is tapered post-Covid If a
e-marketsnordeacomarticle67382fx-weekly-a-fast-lane-to-taper-before-the-fed
lot of bonds are issued then the ECB will buy a lot and vice versa which is probably as close as you get to defacto monetary financing
The net supply is of relevance for the QE program for two reasons i) scarcity in certain bond series is a realproblem which means that the ECB cannot buy too much of single seriescountries in the QE program andii) the almost direct purpose of the PEPPAPP program is now to close spreads between the periphery andGermany and therefore net supply of eg BTPs matter for the calibration of QE going forward The ECB is notgoing to allow wide Italian bond spreads versus Germany again This is called curve spread control (CSC) inpractice which is something we have been forecasting for quite a while
Chart 2 Italian vs German bond spreads are safeguarded by the ECB in an almostpermanent way
Powell on the other hand basically refrained from saying anything at all at Jackson Hole It almost felt asif he was reading out aloud from the most recent FOMC meeting minutes The phrasing around taperingwas a complete copypaste of the meeting minutes and Powell didnrsquot try to form or launch a tapering planthat could turn into a consensus plan before the September meeting The most hawkish part of the FOMChas been extremely vocal in recent weeks including the host of the Jackson Hole Esther George but it stillseems as if the FOMC is yet to form a consensusmajority view on how to address tapering at the meeting inSeptember
Our best guess remains that the FOMC (or a big majority of the FOMC) can agree upon a data dependenttapering process which will include unemployment thresholds that trigger the next phase of tapering shouldthey be met This will also allow those who are potentially scared of the Delta-strain derailing the labour
e-marketsnordeacomarticle67382fx-weekly-a-fast-lane-to-taper-before-the-fed
market upswing during the autumn to vote for it as it essentially includes an automatic buer should theautumn turn out to be much less benign than anticipated in the central scenario
If we assume that the Fed opts for a labour market linked tapering process then we find it super hawkishnews since the employment could surprise right about everyone this autumn on our models The Fed still(ocially) finds NAIRU to be around 45 which is a number that we could easily reach within 2 or 3 monthsshould current job openings just barely be filled There are currently more jobs than (ocially) unemployed inthe US Wow just wow A first reasonable taper threshold in a data dependent tapering process is likely 5with 4 being the target before the purchases are brought back to zero
Chart 3 More job openings than unemployed workers Tight too become super tight soon
Delta remains a bigger issue in Asia than in the West as the ldquozero tolerancerdquo policy has reignited bottlenecksand led to a bigger part of the Chinese supply chain being restricted than in 2020 We have seen tons ofinteresting or even bizarre explanations and excuses for the exploding freight rates in recent weeks but wefind that the real reason is very simple
If a substantial part of the supply chain (China Korea Taiwan and partly Japan) wants to pursue a zerocovid policy then we will end up with continuous large-scaled hiccups due to an outbreak in ports airportsproduction facilities or the likes The outset of the mega-move in freight rates namely coincided exactly withthe date when the Dalian port was closed due to an outbreak which has since been accelerated by closuresof portsterminals in Dalian and most recently Ningbo-Zhoushan (the third busiest port worldwide) This isjust one out of seven good reasons to expect that the Covid-19 crisis has been a trigger for an inflationaryregime-shift (Global 7 reasons why Covid-19 could lead to an inflationary regime shift) as we wrote about
e-marketsnordeacomarticle67382fx-weekly-a-fast-lane-to-taper-before-the-fed
during the week We see very little real-world momentum towards another Covid-strategy in Asia whichmeans that this phenomenon is here to stay for now You better buy your Christmas presents asap
Chart 4 The freight rates started exploding when Chinese ports were closed due to Covidoutbreaks
The global freight bonanza may stem from China but China is also clearly slowing by now A (too) strongRenminbi is one of several culprits but the credit impulse is probably the biggest antagonizer of growth Itis in other words not unlikely that we get a so-called surprise cut from China in coming weeks or monthsThe reserve requirement ratio was cut in July but it is probably not enough to refuel the credit momentum inChina and maybe almost as importantly it hasnrsquot been enough to turn the tide on the Renminbi yet
By now it is as big an issue for China to have a strong currency versus Europe if not bigger than versus theUSD why China needs a policy in place that ensures that the current Yuan momentum is reversed in broadterms Several further reserve requirement ratio cuts usually do the trick but it may be even more eective todeliver a surprise cut to one of the (gazillion of) policy rates with a direct link to the real economy such as theone-year loan prime rate The RRR cut will fuel the supply side appetite but a cut to one of the lending ratesmay be needed to fuel the demand side All-in-all it is starting to look attractive to be long USDCNY in ourview especially if we get a cocktail of Fed tapering and PBoC easing at the same time
e-marketsnordeacomarticle67382fx-weekly-a-fast-lane-to-taper-before-the-fed
Chart 5 A too strong Renminbi is now clearly weighing on the PMI momentum in ChinaTime for a reversal
SEK making a bird of a feather
The recent downdraft of the USD and the rebound in EURUSD has provided some tailwinds for the Swedishkrona As we have argued way too often now the direction of the EURUSD is currently the key input for thedirection of EURSEK That could be about change Over the past week we got a new release of the HOXhouse price series While Valueguard described the monthly decline in prices of 08 as normal it was 05percentage points weaker than the average pattern of 2005-2019 (a decline of 03)
And with pandemic-related amortisation exemptions ending on August 31 it may be that the housing marketwill not only cool further perhaps rapidly but and also impact consumption growth negatively over the nextseveral months
e-marketsnordeacomarticle67382fx-weekly-a-fast-lane-to-taper-before-the-fed
Chart 6 A housing slowdown may prompt fears
If for instance house price growth were to continue to undershoot the 2005-2019 pattern by 05 percentagepoints per month house price inflation could drop to only 2 in the first quarter of 2022 This is notnecessarily problematic - one might even argue its healthy It could nonetheless prompt fears of a biggerdowndraft which would likely be SEK-negative This together with our view on the dollar the risks forpolitical turbulence surrounding Swedens autumn budget keep us negative on the SEK
We accordingly remain long NOKSEK as i) positioning is still around 15 standard deviations short in NOKii) there are limited taper tantrum risks over the next 2-3 weeks and iii) NIBOR is headed higher due to bothhikes and tighter USD liquidity once a debt ceiling deal is completed
e-marketsnordeacomarticle67382fx-weekly-a-fast-lane-to-taper-before-the-fed
Chart 7 Foreigners are still 15 stddev short in NOK
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Andreas Steno LarsenChief Global FXFI Strategistandreasstenolarsennordeacom+45 55 46 72 29
Martin EnlundGlobal Chief FX StrategistMartinEnlundnordeacom
e-marketsnordeacomarticle67382fx-weekly-a-fast-lane-to-taper-before-the-fed
httpsresearchnordeacomFICC
Chart 1 If the ECB steps up and allows EUR real rates to increase a bit then EURUSD mayavoid a big sell-o
In practice ECBs Lane promised BOTH a CAP and a FLOOR to EUR interest rates but obviously the focus ison the floor since it i) apparently carries a news value and ii) we are trading at the bottom of recent tradingyield-ranges in most EUR bonds For now markets are likely to chase the ECB taper story even if Lane alsopromised a cap to interest rates So ultimately we suggest that you 1) play the range in EUR swaps and 2)sell EUR rates volatility and 3) re-sell EURUSD if it rallies again because of Lanersquos speech Levels just below119 are interesting to be short from again but for now the risk is on the upside in the cross
We noted two sequences from Lanersquos speech which may be worthwhile reading again for everyone withjust a tad of an exposure in the Euro area First ldquoWe donrsquot respond day by day but we did make a consciousdecision in March to step up purchases and we made a conscious decision in June that we should maintainthat pace In the upcoming meetings whether September or December wersquoll have to take into account themovements in interest ratesrdquo Lane has been vocal on actual financing conditions dictating the ECB balancesheet before but it is the first time that he refers to them when they have moved to extremely benign levelsAgain there is BOTH a CAP and a FLOOR in EUR interest rates
Second ldquoA second consideration is net bond supply You cannot think about the volume of the APPindependently of the volume of net bond supply The relatively high fiscal deficits that we saw last year andthis year will not be lasting in the coming years but the scale of deficits may remain higher than the pre-pandemic levelsrdquo which was an overlooked component of Lanersquos speech as the focus remained glued to theindirect tapering signal of the ldquofinancial conditions commentrdquo Lane basically admits to net supply being aguiding star for the APP program that will continue to run after the PEPP program is tapered post-Covid If a
e-marketsnordeacomarticle67382fx-weekly-a-fast-lane-to-taper-before-the-fed
lot of bonds are issued then the ECB will buy a lot and vice versa which is probably as close as you get to defacto monetary financing
The net supply is of relevance for the QE program for two reasons i) scarcity in certain bond series is a realproblem which means that the ECB cannot buy too much of single seriescountries in the QE program andii) the almost direct purpose of the PEPPAPP program is now to close spreads between the periphery andGermany and therefore net supply of eg BTPs matter for the calibration of QE going forward The ECB is notgoing to allow wide Italian bond spreads versus Germany again This is called curve spread control (CSC) inpractice which is something we have been forecasting for quite a while
Chart 2 Italian vs German bond spreads are safeguarded by the ECB in an almostpermanent way
Powell on the other hand basically refrained from saying anything at all at Jackson Hole It almost felt asif he was reading out aloud from the most recent FOMC meeting minutes The phrasing around taperingwas a complete copypaste of the meeting minutes and Powell didnrsquot try to form or launch a tapering planthat could turn into a consensus plan before the September meeting The most hawkish part of the FOMChas been extremely vocal in recent weeks including the host of the Jackson Hole Esther George but it stillseems as if the FOMC is yet to form a consensusmajority view on how to address tapering at the meeting inSeptember
Our best guess remains that the FOMC (or a big majority of the FOMC) can agree upon a data dependenttapering process which will include unemployment thresholds that trigger the next phase of tapering shouldthey be met This will also allow those who are potentially scared of the Delta-strain derailing the labour
e-marketsnordeacomarticle67382fx-weekly-a-fast-lane-to-taper-before-the-fed
market upswing during the autumn to vote for it as it essentially includes an automatic buer should theautumn turn out to be much less benign than anticipated in the central scenario
If we assume that the Fed opts for a labour market linked tapering process then we find it super hawkishnews since the employment could surprise right about everyone this autumn on our models The Fed still(ocially) finds NAIRU to be around 45 which is a number that we could easily reach within 2 or 3 monthsshould current job openings just barely be filled There are currently more jobs than (ocially) unemployed inthe US Wow just wow A first reasonable taper threshold in a data dependent tapering process is likely 5with 4 being the target before the purchases are brought back to zero
Chart 3 More job openings than unemployed workers Tight too become super tight soon
Delta remains a bigger issue in Asia than in the West as the ldquozero tolerancerdquo policy has reignited bottlenecksand led to a bigger part of the Chinese supply chain being restricted than in 2020 We have seen tons ofinteresting or even bizarre explanations and excuses for the exploding freight rates in recent weeks but wefind that the real reason is very simple
If a substantial part of the supply chain (China Korea Taiwan and partly Japan) wants to pursue a zerocovid policy then we will end up with continuous large-scaled hiccups due to an outbreak in ports airportsproduction facilities or the likes The outset of the mega-move in freight rates namely coincided exactly withthe date when the Dalian port was closed due to an outbreak which has since been accelerated by closuresof portsterminals in Dalian and most recently Ningbo-Zhoushan (the third busiest port worldwide) This isjust one out of seven good reasons to expect that the Covid-19 crisis has been a trigger for an inflationaryregime-shift (Global 7 reasons why Covid-19 could lead to an inflationary regime shift) as we wrote about
e-marketsnordeacomarticle67382fx-weekly-a-fast-lane-to-taper-before-the-fed
during the week We see very little real-world momentum towards another Covid-strategy in Asia whichmeans that this phenomenon is here to stay for now You better buy your Christmas presents asap
Chart 4 The freight rates started exploding when Chinese ports were closed due to Covidoutbreaks
The global freight bonanza may stem from China but China is also clearly slowing by now A (too) strongRenminbi is one of several culprits but the credit impulse is probably the biggest antagonizer of growth Itis in other words not unlikely that we get a so-called surprise cut from China in coming weeks or monthsThe reserve requirement ratio was cut in July but it is probably not enough to refuel the credit momentum inChina and maybe almost as importantly it hasnrsquot been enough to turn the tide on the Renminbi yet
By now it is as big an issue for China to have a strong currency versus Europe if not bigger than versus theUSD why China needs a policy in place that ensures that the current Yuan momentum is reversed in broadterms Several further reserve requirement ratio cuts usually do the trick but it may be even more eective todeliver a surprise cut to one of the (gazillion of) policy rates with a direct link to the real economy such as theone-year loan prime rate The RRR cut will fuel the supply side appetite but a cut to one of the lending ratesmay be needed to fuel the demand side All-in-all it is starting to look attractive to be long USDCNY in ourview especially if we get a cocktail of Fed tapering and PBoC easing at the same time
e-marketsnordeacomarticle67382fx-weekly-a-fast-lane-to-taper-before-the-fed
Chart 5 A too strong Renminbi is now clearly weighing on the PMI momentum in ChinaTime for a reversal
SEK making a bird of a feather
The recent downdraft of the USD and the rebound in EURUSD has provided some tailwinds for the Swedishkrona As we have argued way too often now the direction of the EURUSD is currently the key input for thedirection of EURSEK That could be about change Over the past week we got a new release of the HOXhouse price series While Valueguard described the monthly decline in prices of 08 as normal it was 05percentage points weaker than the average pattern of 2005-2019 (a decline of 03)
And with pandemic-related amortisation exemptions ending on August 31 it may be that the housing marketwill not only cool further perhaps rapidly but and also impact consumption growth negatively over the nextseveral months
e-marketsnordeacomarticle67382fx-weekly-a-fast-lane-to-taper-before-the-fed
Chart 6 A housing slowdown may prompt fears
If for instance house price growth were to continue to undershoot the 2005-2019 pattern by 05 percentagepoints per month house price inflation could drop to only 2 in the first quarter of 2022 This is notnecessarily problematic - one might even argue its healthy It could nonetheless prompt fears of a biggerdowndraft which would likely be SEK-negative This together with our view on the dollar the risks forpolitical turbulence surrounding Swedens autumn budget keep us negative on the SEK
We accordingly remain long NOKSEK as i) positioning is still around 15 standard deviations short in NOKii) there are limited taper tantrum risks over the next 2-3 weeks and iii) NIBOR is headed higher due to bothhikes and tighter USD liquidity once a debt ceiling deal is completed
e-marketsnordeacomarticle67382fx-weekly-a-fast-lane-to-taper-before-the-fed
Chart 7 Foreigners are still 15 stddev short in NOK
Previous FX weeklies
FX weekly Breathe easy (15 Aug)
FX weekly Debt ceiling liquidity trade (8 Aug)
FX weekly Bullard is right (1 Aug)
FX weekly The crisis over (25 July)
FX weekly The QT road-map (18 July)
FX weekly The liquidity rollercoaster (11 July)
FX weekly Bidens regime shift (04 July)
FX weekly The moratorium (27 June)
FX weekly Run for the hills Powell (20 June)
FX weekly Regime shift (13 June)
FX weekly Boomers aint coming back (06 June)
FX weekly Woke Fed to taper (30 May)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle67382fx-weekly-a-fast-lane-to-taper-before-the-fed
FX weekly The one on USD liquidity (23 May)
FX weekly Oprahnomics revisited (16 May)
FX weekly You det a dog(e) (09 May)
FX weekly Powell is right (02 May)
FX weekly Time to strike back on Biden (25 Apr)
FX weekly Who cares about headlines (18 Apr)
FX weekly Nord-stream 2 (11 Apr)
FX weekly Nothing else matters (28 Mar)
FX weekly 20 stronger USD (21 Mar)
FX weekly Time for JPowws taper tantrum (14 Mar)
FX weekly Is it just us or is it getting crazier out there (07 Mar)
FX weekly Bye bye reflation (28 Feb)
FX weekly Enough USD liquidity to keep us running at fumes (21 Feb)
FX weekly Roses are red violets are blue (14 Feb)
FX weekly Blanchard and overheating risks (7 Feb)
FX weekly The week the game was stopped (31 Jan)
FX weekly China Joe vs Mango Mussolini (24 Jan)
FX weekly Another one Bidens the dust (17 Jan)
FX weekly Peak bullishness (10 Jan)
FX weekly The year of the Ox (03 Jan)
FX weekly How will consensus be wrongfooted in 2021 (20 Dec)
FX weekly There are decades where nothing happens (13 Dec)
FX weekly Globalization back on the menu (6 Dec)
FX weekly Letrsquos hope that money printers are running on windmills (29 Nov)
FX weekly Mnuchin right or wrong (22 Nov)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle67382fx-weekly-a-fast-lane-to-taper-before-the-fed
FX weekly Politics is like sausages you dont want to watch either being made (15 Nov)
FX weekly Biden is not that reflationary (08 Nov)
FX weekly Are markets dumb or not (01 Nov)
FX weekly Lockdowners on Parade (25 Oct)
FX weekly Buy Green before Lagarde(18 Oct)
FX weekly The one on MMT (11 Oct)
FX weekly Corona Trump (04 Oct)
FX weekly Grin and Barrett (27 Sep)
FX weekly AIT is maybe not as dovish as we thought (20 Sep)
FX weekly AIT means easier financial conditions (13 Sep)
FX weekly Good luck Powell (23 Aug)
middotFX weekly USD to be put in the Jackson Hole (16 Aug)
middotFX weekly Peoples QE (09 Aug)
middotFX weekly USD will remain the No1 reserve currency (02 Aug)
middotFX weekly Kanye vs Trump vs Biden (05 Jul)
middotFX weekly Europe vs US 1-0 (28 Jun)
middotFX weekly Should we fear a second lock-down (21 Jun)
middotFX weekly USD liquidity is not going to be as ample (14 Jun)
middotFX weekly EURphoria and panic-YCC (07 Jun)
middotFX weekly An EU solution to a EUR problem (31 May)
middotFX weekly Time to buy a EUR lottery ticket (24 May)
middotFX weekly The trade deal was always born to die (17 May)
middotFX weekly How to trade NIRP coming to America (10 May)
middotFX weekly The rise of the Virolocracy (03 May)
middotFX weekly The EUR-tyranny of the minority (27 Apr)
middotFX weekly How to glue together the EUR-ship again (20 Apr)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle67382fx-weekly-a-fast-lane-to-taper-before-the-fed
middotFX weekly The flipside of Oprahnomics(13 Apr)
middotFX weekly USD needs to weaken or else Plaza Accord 20 is likely (06 Apr)
middotFX weekly Spraying the world with money instead of with disinfectant (29 Mar)
middotFX weekly There will be a crisis and new instruments will be created (22 Mar)
middotFX weekly Sweden and UK are the odd ones out (15 Mar)
middotFX weekly A big bucket of bummerballs (08 Mar)
middotFX weekly A preppers guide to trading Corona (01 Mar)
middotFX weekly Get ready for YCC (23 Feb)
middotFX weekly Mini Mike and the Mechanics (16 Feb)
middotFX weekly Feds balance sheet may need to grow more (09 Feb)
middotFX weekly Did the Virus originate in Norway (02 Feb)
middotFX weekly Mnuchin to trick Fed into more POMO (26 Jan)
middotFX weekly A green bubble to save the world (19 Jan)
middotFX weekly Bad news for NIRP-haters (12 Jan)
middotFX weekly Coupon-bearing securities smell of QE4 (05 Jan)
middotFX weekly The Riksbank is not a leading indicator of the ECB (22 Dec)
middotFX weekly Merry Christmas from the POTUS (15 Dec)
middotFX weekly Why this is not 20152016 all over again (08 Dec)
middotFX weekly Waiting for Godot (01 Dec)
middotFX weekly Get ready for Climate QE 2 (24 Nov)
middotFX weekly FX space yet to corroborate the reflationistas (17 Nov)
middotFX weekly Dont extrapolate the 60 Bs (10 Nov)
middotFX weekly 99 problems but the NOK aint one (3 Nov)
middotFX weekly Something big just happened (27 Oct)
middotFX weekly The QE train to nowhere (20 Oct)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle67382fx-weekly-a-fast-lane-to-taper-before-the-fed
middotFX weekly The 50 Brsquos caused the downturn so what about the 60 Brsquos (13 Oct)
middotFX weekly Is everything falling apart (6 Oct)
middotFX weekly A new path for USD liquidity (29 Sep)
middotFX weekly Soft QE in October (22 Sep)
middotFX weekly Welcome to the birthday party (15 Sep)
middotFX weekly An early santa rally (08 Sep)
middotFX weekly Can you smell the Sushi yet (01 Sep)
middotFX weekly Mo taris mo cuts but whorsquos Sho Nu (25 Aug)
middotFX weekly First havens then sell confetti (18 Aug)
middotFX weekly The liquidity doom loop (11 Aug)
middotFX weekly Buy Treasuries Short Scandis Wear Diamonds (04 Aug)
middotFX weekly Lagarde better practice her Rhine dancing (28 Jul)
middotFX weekly Go big or go home (21 Jul)
middotFX weekly The liquidity plot thickens (14 Jul)
middotFX weekly e-scooters are silly (07Jul)
middotFX weekly One is exausted the other is nuts(30 Jun)
middotFX weekly Time to bring in Steven Seagal 2 (23 Jun)
middotFX weekly Get ready for climate QE (16 Jun)
middotFX weekly Cut cut cut cut (09 Jun)
middotFX weekly The absolute madman (02 Jun)
middotFX weekly Will Xi be Nikithared (26 May)
middotFX weekly Trade war ping pong (19 May)
middotFX weekly A stairway to heaven for Krona shorts (12 May)
middotFX weekly Mnuchin to bail-out Fed (05 May)
middotFX weekly 3 reasons why the USD has been resurgent (28 Apr)
middotFX weekly No doomsday (yet) (21 Apr)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle67382fx-weekly-a-fast-lane-to-taper-before-the-fed
middotFX weekly In EUR we trust (14 Apr)
middotFX weekly Crouching Tiger Hidden Inflation Dragon (07 Apr)
middotFX weekly There is a smell of 2016 in the air (31 Mar)
middotFX weekly Dear Mr Powell (24 Mar)
middotFX weekly The devils advocate (17 Mar)
middotFX weekly Mario Bla-blaghi (10 Mar)
middotFX weekly Chinese reflation (3 Mar)
middotFX weekly QT cannot run forever (24 Feb)
middotFX weekly The USD is now in Trumps hands (17 Feb)
middotFX weekly Time to care about Euro area politics again (10 Feb)
middotFX weekly Is Powell turning into a MAGA-man (03 Feb)
middotFX weekly On climate angst and fake news (27 Jan)
middotFX weekly The Mnuchin bailout (20 Jan)
middotFX weekly FX weekly Cause Im a flip-flopper yes I am (13 Jan)
middotFX weekly FX weekly Treasury vs Fed (06 Jan)
middotFX weekly Top 4 FXMM trades for Q1-2019 (01 Jan)
middotFX weekly On liquidity witches and warlocks (23 Dec)
middotFX weekly Qui Navance pas recule (16 Dec)
middotFX weekly Burnin down the house (9 Dec)
middotFX weekly In Gut we Trust (2 Dec)
middotFX weekly Pikachu aint no hobbit (25 Nov)
middotFX weekly Powell pondering pausing (18 Nov)
middotFX weekly Another SOMA-test of 113 (11 Nov)
middotFX weekly 113 will hold unless the Republicans keep both chambers (04 Nov)
middotFX weekly HIA SOMA and REBA-days (28 Oct)
middotFX weekly The debt ceiling is a USD ceiling (21 Oct)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle67382fx-weekly-a-fast-lane-to-taper-before-the-fed
middotFX weekly Volatility makes odd bedfellows (14 Oct)
middotFX weekly No Di-Maionnaise for your EURs (yet) (7 Oct)
middotFX weekly Along came year-end (30 Sep)
middotFX weekly Twin deficit scare 2 (23 Sep)
middotFX weekly The Pope of Nope has spoken (16 Sep)
middotFX weekly Who wants to impeach a +60 ISM president (09 Sep)
middotFX weekly It is time to go long Scandis again (02 Sep)
middotFX weekly The Conte-Trump alliance (26 Aug)
middotFX weekly Fat-burning shorts (19 Aug)
middotFX weekly Time to call in Steven Seagal(12 Aug)
middotFX weekly Is the cyclical momentum over-priced (05 Aug)
middotFX weekly How to trade a cease-fire (29 Jul)
middotFX weekly Whats that curve (22 Jul)
middotFX weekly The China Factor (15 Jul)
middotFX weekly Take a short trade war breather (08 Jul)
middotFX weekly Trump will never 238 (01 Jul)
middotFX weekly The USD is the best carry currency in the world (24 Jun)
middotFX weekly Dollar to provide headwinds for earning estimates (17 Jun)
middotFX weekly Fire and fury risks for the USD (10 Jun)
middotFX weekly Its not only Italy (03 Jun)
middotFX weekly The Sumo SOMA days (27 May)
middotFX weekly EM wont be sprinting if the Fed is unprinting (20 May)
middotFX weekly The two final nails in the dovish FOMC-con (13 May)
middotFX weekly Is there anything left in the USD bull-run (06 May)
middotFX weekly Dragon Energy (29 Apr)
middotFX weekly Relative curvature is the new king of FX (22 Apr)
middotFX weekly Why is EURUSD not trading lower (15 Apr)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle67382fx-weekly-a-fast-lane-to-taper-before-the-fed
middotFX weekly Like watching paint dry they said (08 Apr)
middotFX weekly The list of potential USD-positives is getting longer (01 Apr)
middotFX weekly 2 reasons why EURUSD has decoupled from rates spreads (25 Mar)
middotFX weekly Time to buy a USD lottery ticket (18 Mar)
middotFX weekly Taxation mirror on the wall who is the fairest of them all (11 Mar)
middotFX weekly Trumps game of chicken (04 Mar)
middotFX weekly Will the market neglect the clutch of canaries (25 Feb)
middotFX weekly Is the correlation break-down driven by FX hedges (18 Feb)
middotFX weekly The liquidity tide is ebbing (11 Feb)
middotFX weekly Hawkish spectacles (04 Feb)
middotFX weekly Who will stop EURUSD from moving higher (28 Jan)
middotFX weekly Did the Democrats dent the Dollar (21 Jan)
middotFX weekly Is 125 the new 120 (14 Jan)
middotFX weekly The euphoria rises (07 Jan)
middotFX weekly Paging Dr Pangloss (01 Jan)
middotFX weekly The R-star of Bethlehem (24 Dec)
middotFX weekly A numbers game (17 Dec)
middotFX weekly The year-end liquidty shrink (10 Dec)
middotFX weekly Three reasons why EURUSD isnt trading lower (03 Dec)
middotFX weekly Which currencies to sell if the housing downturn continues (26 Nov)
middotFX weekly The global industrial cycle is set to weaken (19 Nov)
middotFX weekly Is high-yield a canary in the global coal mine (12 Nov)
middotFX weekly Is this the end of the inflation convergence trade in EURUSD (5 Nov)
middotFX weekly Was that it for the EUR bulls (29 Oct)
middotFX weekly Hawks in opposition doves in charge (22 Oct)
middot FX weeklyContinued convergence or re-divergence(15 Oct)
middotFX weekly Thingsdont matter until they do(08 Oct)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle67382fx-weekly-a-fast-lane-to-taper-before-the-fed
middotFX weekly October seasonality is strong (01 Oct)
middotFX weekly ldquoIs 120 the new 115rdquo(24 Sep)
middot FX weekly Honey I shrunk the balance sheet(17 Sep)
middot FX weekly ldquoUSD liquidity will turn scarcer but whenrdquo (10 Sep)
middot FX weekly ldquoStrong currencies and inflationrdquo(3 Sep)
middot FX weekly ldquoUSD in the (Jackson) holerdquo (27 Aug)
middot FX weekly ldquoQ4 is the USD quarterrdquo(20 Aug)
middot FX weekly ldquoIn the year 2525rdquo(13 Aug)
middot FX weekly ldquoEURUSD ceiling or debt ceilingrdquo(6 Aug)
middot FX weeklyldquoElevator up stairs down ldquo(30 Jul)
middot FX weeklyTrump ldquospicesrdquo up EURUSD(23 Jul)
middot FX weeklyFlip-flop(16 Jul)
middot FX weeklyConsolidation time(9 Jul)
middot FX weeklyHawks R Us(2 Jul)
middot FX weeklyAnother lowflation week(25 Jun)
middot FX weeklyNo Fed put(18 Jun)
middot FX weeklyA bouncy dollar(11 Jun)
middot FX weeklyHeating up(4 Jun)
middot FX weeklySummertime sadness(28 May)
middot FX weeklySpecial counsel lessens Trumpbulence while OPEC looms(21 May)
middot FX weeklyAre China worries old hat(14 May)
middot FX weeklyInflation weekhellip(7 May)
Andreas Steno LarsenChief Global FXFI Strategistandreasstenolarsennordeacom+45 55 46 72 29
Martin EnlundGlobal Chief FX StrategistMartinEnlundnordeacom
e-marketsnordeacomarticle67382fx-weekly-a-fast-lane-to-taper-before-the-fed
httpsresearchnordeacomFICC
lot of bonds are issued then the ECB will buy a lot and vice versa which is probably as close as you get to defacto monetary financing
The net supply is of relevance for the QE program for two reasons i) scarcity in certain bond series is a realproblem which means that the ECB cannot buy too much of single seriescountries in the QE program andii) the almost direct purpose of the PEPPAPP program is now to close spreads between the periphery andGermany and therefore net supply of eg BTPs matter for the calibration of QE going forward The ECB is notgoing to allow wide Italian bond spreads versus Germany again This is called curve spread control (CSC) inpractice which is something we have been forecasting for quite a while
Chart 2 Italian vs German bond spreads are safeguarded by the ECB in an almostpermanent way
Powell on the other hand basically refrained from saying anything at all at Jackson Hole It almost felt asif he was reading out aloud from the most recent FOMC meeting minutes The phrasing around taperingwas a complete copypaste of the meeting minutes and Powell didnrsquot try to form or launch a tapering planthat could turn into a consensus plan before the September meeting The most hawkish part of the FOMChas been extremely vocal in recent weeks including the host of the Jackson Hole Esther George but it stillseems as if the FOMC is yet to form a consensusmajority view on how to address tapering at the meeting inSeptember
Our best guess remains that the FOMC (or a big majority of the FOMC) can agree upon a data dependenttapering process which will include unemployment thresholds that trigger the next phase of tapering shouldthey be met This will also allow those who are potentially scared of the Delta-strain derailing the labour
e-marketsnordeacomarticle67382fx-weekly-a-fast-lane-to-taper-before-the-fed
market upswing during the autumn to vote for it as it essentially includes an automatic buer should theautumn turn out to be much less benign than anticipated in the central scenario
If we assume that the Fed opts for a labour market linked tapering process then we find it super hawkishnews since the employment could surprise right about everyone this autumn on our models The Fed still(ocially) finds NAIRU to be around 45 which is a number that we could easily reach within 2 or 3 monthsshould current job openings just barely be filled There are currently more jobs than (ocially) unemployed inthe US Wow just wow A first reasonable taper threshold in a data dependent tapering process is likely 5with 4 being the target before the purchases are brought back to zero
Chart 3 More job openings than unemployed workers Tight too become super tight soon
Delta remains a bigger issue in Asia than in the West as the ldquozero tolerancerdquo policy has reignited bottlenecksand led to a bigger part of the Chinese supply chain being restricted than in 2020 We have seen tons ofinteresting or even bizarre explanations and excuses for the exploding freight rates in recent weeks but wefind that the real reason is very simple
If a substantial part of the supply chain (China Korea Taiwan and partly Japan) wants to pursue a zerocovid policy then we will end up with continuous large-scaled hiccups due to an outbreak in ports airportsproduction facilities or the likes The outset of the mega-move in freight rates namely coincided exactly withthe date when the Dalian port was closed due to an outbreak which has since been accelerated by closuresof portsterminals in Dalian and most recently Ningbo-Zhoushan (the third busiest port worldwide) This isjust one out of seven good reasons to expect that the Covid-19 crisis has been a trigger for an inflationaryregime-shift (Global 7 reasons why Covid-19 could lead to an inflationary regime shift) as we wrote about
e-marketsnordeacomarticle67382fx-weekly-a-fast-lane-to-taper-before-the-fed
during the week We see very little real-world momentum towards another Covid-strategy in Asia whichmeans that this phenomenon is here to stay for now You better buy your Christmas presents asap
Chart 4 The freight rates started exploding when Chinese ports were closed due to Covidoutbreaks
The global freight bonanza may stem from China but China is also clearly slowing by now A (too) strongRenminbi is one of several culprits but the credit impulse is probably the biggest antagonizer of growth Itis in other words not unlikely that we get a so-called surprise cut from China in coming weeks or monthsThe reserve requirement ratio was cut in July but it is probably not enough to refuel the credit momentum inChina and maybe almost as importantly it hasnrsquot been enough to turn the tide on the Renminbi yet
By now it is as big an issue for China to have a strong currency versus Europe if not bigger than versus theUSD why China needs a policy in place that ensures that the current Yuan momentum is reversed in broadterms Several further reserve requirement ratio cuts usually do the trick but it may be even more eective todeliver a surprise cut to one of the (gazillion of) policy rates with a direct link to the real economy such as theone-year loan prime rate The RRR cut will fuel the supply side appetite but a cut to one of the lending ratesmay be needed to fuel the demand side All-in-all it is starting to look attractive to be long USDCNY in ourview especially if we get a cocktail of Fed tapering and PBoC easing at the same time
e-marketsnordeacomarticle67382fx-weekly-a-fast-lane-to-taper-before-the-fed
Chart 5 A too strong Renminbi is now clearly weighing on the PMI momentum in ChinaTime for a reversal
SEK making a bird of a feather
The recent downdraft of the USD and the rebound in EURUSD has provided some tailwinds for the Swedishkrona As we have argued way too often now the direction of the EURUSD is currently the key input for thedirection of EURSEK That could be about change Over the past week we got a new release of the HOXhouse price series While Valueguard described the monthly decline in prices of 08 as normal it was 05percentage points weaker than the average pattern of 2005-2019 (a decline of 03)
And with pandemic-related amortisation exemptions ending on August 31 it may be that the housing marketwill not only cool further perhaps rapidly but and also impact consumption growth negatively over the nextseveral months
e-marketsnordeacomarticle67382fx-weekly-a-fast-lane-to-taper-before-the-fed
Chart 6 A housing slowdown may prompt fears
If for instance house price growth were to continue to undershoot the 2005-2019 pattern by 05 percentagepoints per month house price inflation could drop to only 2 in the first quarter of 2022 This is notnecessarily problematic - one might even argue its healthy It could nonetheless prompt fears of a biggerdowndraft which would likely be SEK-negative This together with our view on the dollar the risks forpolitical turbulence surrounding Swedens autumn budget keep us negative on the SEK
We accordingly remain long NOKSEK as i) positioning is still around 15 standard deviations short in NOKii) there are limited taper tantrum risks over the next 2-3 weeks and iii) NIBOR is headed higher due to bothhikes and tighter USD liquidity once a debt ceiling deal is completed
e-marketsnordeacomarticle67382fx-weekly-a-fast-lane-to-taper-before-the-fed
Chart 7 Foreigners are still 15 stddev short in NOK
Previous FX weeklies
FX weekly Breathe easy (15 Aug)
FX weekly Debt ceiling liquidity trade (8 Aug)
FX weekly Bullard is right (1 Aug)
FX weekly The crisis over (25 July)
FX weekly The QT road-map (18 July)
FX weekly The liquidity rollercoaster (11 July)
FX weekly Bidens regime shift (04 July)
FX weekly The moratorium (27 June)
FX weekly Run for the hills Powell (20 June)
FX weekly Regime shift (13 June)
FX weekly Boomers aint coming back (06 June)
FX weekly Woke Fed to taper (30 May)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle67382fx-weekly-a-fast-lane-to-taper-before-the-fed
FX weekly The one on USD liquidity (23 May)
FX weekly Oprahnomics revisited (16 May)
FX weekly You det a dog(e) (09 May)
FX weekly Powell is right (02 May)
FX weekly Time to strike back on Biden (25 Apr)
FX weekly Who cares about headlines (18 Apr)
FX weekly Nord-stream 2 (11 Apr)
FX weekly Nothing else matters (28 Mar)
FX weekly 20 stronger USD (21 Mar)
FX weekly Time for JPowws taper tantrum (14 Mar)
FX weekly Is it just us or is it getting crazier out there (07 Mar)
FX weekly Bye bye reflation (28 Feb)
FX weekly Enough USD liquidity to keep us running at fumes (21 Feb)
FX weekly Roses are red violets are blue (14 Feb)
FX weekly Blanchard and overheating risks (7 Feb)
FX weekly The week the game was stopped (31 Jan)
FX weekly China Joe vs Mango Mussolini (24 Jan)
FX weekly Another one Bidens the dust (17 Jan)
FX weekly Peak bullishness (10 Jan)
FX weekly The year of the Ox (03 Jan)
FX weekly How will consensus be wrongfooted in 2021 (20 Dec)
FX weekly There are decades where nothing happens (13 Dec)
FX weekly Globalization back on the menu (6 Dec)
FX weekly Letrsquos hope that money printers are running on windmills (29 Nov)
FX weekly Mnuchin right or wrong (22 Nov)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle67382fx-weekly-a-fast-lane-to-taper-before-the-fed
FX weekly Politics is like sausages you dont want to watch either being made (15 Nov)
FX weekly Biden is not that reflationary (08 Nov)
FX weekly Are markets dumb or not (01 Nov)
FX weekly Lockdowners on Parade (25 Oct)
FX weekly Buy Green before Lagarde(18 Oct)
FX weekly The one on MMT (11 Oct)
FX weekly Corona Trump (04 Oct)
FX weekly Grin and Barrett (27 Sep)
FX weekly AIT is maybe not as dovish as we thought (20 Sep)
FX weekly AIT means easier financial conditions (13 Sep)
FX weekly Good luck Powell (23 Aug)
middotFX weekly USD to be put in the Jackson Hole (16 Aug)
middotFX weekly Peoples QE (09 Aug)
middotFX weekly USD will remain the No1 reserve currency (02 Aug)
middotFX weekly Kanye vs Trump vs Biden (05 Jul)
middotFX weekly Europe vs US 1-0 (28 Jun)
middotFX weekly Should we fear a second lock-down (21 Jun)
middotFX weekly USD liquidity is not going to be as ample (14 Jun)
middotFX weekly EURphoria and panic-YCC (07 Jun)
middotFX weekly An EU solution to a EUR problem (31 May)
middotFX weekly Time to buy a EUR lottery ticket (24 May)
middotFX weekly The trade deal was always born to die (17 May)
middotFX weekly How to trade NIRP coming to America (10 May)
middotFX weekly The rise of the Virolocracy (03 May)
middotFX weekly The EUR-tyranny of the minority (27 Apr)
middotFX weekly How to glue together the EUR-ship again (20 Apr)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle67382fx-weekly-a-fast-lane-to-taper-before-the-fed
middotFX weekly The flipside of Oprahnomics(13 Apr)
middotFX weekly USD needs to weaken or else Plaza Accord 20 is likely (06 Apr)
middotFX weekly Spraying the world with money instead of with disinfectant (29 Mar)
middotFX weekly There will be a crisis and new instruments will be created (22 Mar)
middotFX weekly Sweden and UK are the odd ones out (15 Mar)
middotFX weekly A big bucket of bummerballs (08 Mar)
middotFX weekly A preppers guide to trading Corona (01 Mar)
middotFX weekly Get ready for YCC (23 Feb)
middotFX weekly Mini Mike and the Mechanics (16 Feb)
middotFX weekly Feds balance sheet may need to grow more (09 Feb)
middotFX weekly Did the Virus originate in Norway (02 Feb)
middotFX weekly Mnuchin to trick Fed into more POMO (26 Jan)
middotFX weekly A green bubble to save the world (19 Jan)
middotFX weekly Bad news for NIRP-haters (12 Jan)
middotFX weekly Coupon-bearing securities smell of QE4 (05 Jan)
middotFX weekly The Riksbank is not a leading indicator of the ECB (22 Dec)
middotFX weekly Merry Christmas from the POTUS (15 Dec)
middotFX weekly Why this is not 20152016 all over again (08 Dec)
middotFX weekly Waiting for Godot (01 Dec)
middotFX weekly Get ready for Climate QE 2 (24 Nov)
middotFX weekly FX space yet to corroborate the reflationistas (17 Nov)
middotFX weekly Dont extrapolate the 60 Bs (10 Nov)
middotFX weekly 99 problems but the NOK aint one (3 Nov)
middotFX weekly Something big just happened (27 Oct)
middotFX weekly The QE train to nowhere (20 Oct)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle67382fx-weekly-a-fast-lane-to-taper-before-the-fed
middotFX weekly The 50 Brsquos caused the downturn so what about the 60 Brsquos (13 Oct)
middotFX weekly Is everything falling apart (6 Oct)
middotFX weekly A new path for USD liquidity (29 Sep)
middotFX weekly Soft QE in October (22 Sep)
middotFX weekly Welcome to the birthday party (15 Sep)
middotFX weekly An early santa rally (08 Sep)
middotFX weekly Can you smell the Sushi yet (01 Sep)
middotFX weekly Mo taris mo cuts but whorsquos Sho Nu (25 Aug)
middotFX weekly First havens then sell confetti (18 Aug)
middotFX weekly The liquidity doom loop (11 Aug)
middotFX weekly Buy Treasuries Short Scandis Wear Diamonds (04 Aug)
middotFX weekly Lagarde better practice her Rhine dancing (28 Jul)
middotFX weekly Go big or go home (21 Jul)
middotFX weekly The liquidity plot thickens (14 Jul)
middotFX weekly e-scooters are silly (07Jul)
middotFX weekly One is exausted the other is nuts(30 Jun)
middotFX weekly Time to bring in Steven Seagal 2 (23 Jun)
middotFX weekly Get ready for climate QE (16 Jun)
middotFX weekly Cut cut cut cut (09 Jun)
middotFX weekly The absolute madman (02 Jun)
middotFX weekly Will Xi be Nikithared (26 May)
middotFX weekly Trade war ping pong (19 May)
middotFX weekly A stairway to heaven for Krona shorts (12 May)
middotFX weekly Mnuchin to bail-out Fed (05 May)
middotFX weekly 3 reasons why the USD has been resurgent (28 Apr)
middotFX weekly No doomsday (yet) (21 Apr)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle67382fx-weekly-a-fast-lane-to-taper-before-the-fed
middotFX weekly In EUR we trust (14 Apr)
middotFX weekly Crouching Tiger Hidden Inflation Dragon (07 Apr)
middotFX weekly There is a smell of 2016 in the air (31 Mar)
middotFX weekly Dear Mr Powell (24 Mar)
middotFX weekly The devils advocate (17 Mar)
middotFX weekly Mario Bla-blaghi (10 Mar)
middotFX weekly Chinese reflation (3 Mar)
middotFX weekly QT cannot run forever (24 Feb)
middotFX weekly The USD is now in Trumps hands (17 Feb)
middotFX weekly Time to care about Euro area politics again (10 Feb)
middotFX weekly Is Powell turning into a MAGA-man (03 Feb)
middotFX weekly On climate angst and fake news (27 Jan)
middotFX weekly The Mnuchin bailout (20 Jan)
middotFX weekly FX weekly Cause Im a flip-flopper yes I am (13 Jan)
middotFX weekly FX weekly Treasury vs Fed (06 Jan)
middotFX weekly Top 4 FXMM trades for Q1-2019 (01 Jan)
middotFX weekly On liquidity witches and warlocks (23 Dec)
middotFX weekly Qui Navance pas recule (16 Dec)
middotFX weekly Burnin down the house (9 Dec)
middotFX weekly In Gut we Trust (2 Dec)
middotFX weekly Pikachu aint no hobbit (25 Nov)
middotFX weekly Powell pondering pausing (18 Nov)
middotFX weekly Another SOMA-test of 113 (11 Nov)
middotFX weekly 113 will hold unless the Republicans keep both chambers (04 Nov)
middotFX weekly HIA SOMA and REBA-days (28 Oct)
middotFX weekly The debt ceiling is a USD ceiling (21 Oct)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle67382fx-weekly-a-fast-lane-to-taper-before-the-fed
middotFX weekly Volatility makes odd bedfellows (14 Oct)
middotFX weekly No Di-Maionnaise for your EURs (yet) (7 Oct)
middotFX weekly Along came year-end (30 Sep)
middotFX weekly Twin deficit scare 2 (23 Sep)
middotFX weekly The Pope of Nope has spoken (16 Sep)
middotFX weekly Who wants to impeach a +60 ISM president (09 Sep)
middotFX weekly It is time to go long Scandis again (02 Sep)
middotFX weekly The Conte-Trump alliance (26 Aug)
middotFX weekly Fat-burning shorts (19 Aug)
middotFX weekly Time to call in Steven Seagal(12 Aug)
middotFX weekly Is the cyclical momentum over-priced (05 Aug)
middotFX weekly How to trade a cease-fire (29 Jul)
middotFX weekly Whats that curve (22 Jul)
middotFX weekly The China Factor (15 Jul)
middotFX weekly Take a short trade war breather (08 Jul)
middotFX weekly Trump will never 238 (01 Jul)
middotFX weekly The USD is the best carry currency in the world (24 Jun)
middotFX weekly Dollar to provide headwinds for earning estimates (17 Jun)
middotFX weekly Fire and fury risks for the USD (10 Jun)
middotFX weekly Its not only Italy (03 Jun)
middotFX weekly The Sumo SOMA days (27 May)
middotFX weekly EM wont be sprinting if the Fed is unprinting (20 May)
middotFX weekly The two final nails in the dovish FOMC-con (13 May)
middotFX weekly Is there anything left in the USD bull-run (06 May)
middotFX weekly Dragon Energy (29 Apr)
middotFX weekly Relative curvature is the new king of FX (22 Apr)
middotFX weekly Why is EURUSD not trading lower (15 Apr)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle67382fx-weekly-a-fast-lane-to-taper-before-the-fed
middotFX weekly Like watching paint dry they said (08 Apr)
middotFX weekly The list of potential USD-positives is getting longer (01 Apr)
middotFX weekly 2 reasons why EURUSD has decoupled from rates spreads (25 Mar)
middotFX weekly Time to buy a USD lottery ticket (18 Mar)
middotFX weekly Taxation mirror on the wall who is the fairest of them all (11 Mar)
middotFX weekly Trumps game of chicken (04 Mar)
middotFX weekly Will the market neglect the clutch of canaries (25 Feb)
middotFX weekly Is the correlation break-down driven by FX hedges (18 Feb)
middotFX weekly The liquidity tide is ebbing (11 Feb)
middotFX weekly Hawkish spectacles (04 Feb)
middotFX weekly Who will stop EURUSD from moving higher (28 Jan)
middotFX weekly Did the Democrats dent the Dollar (21 Jan)
middotFX weekly Is 125 the new 120 (14 Jan)
middotFX weekly The euphoria rises (07 Jan)
middotFX weekly Paging Dr Pangloss (01 Jan)
middotFX weekly The R-star of Bethlehem (24 Dec)
middotFX weekly A numbers game (17 Dec)
middotFX weekly The year-end liquidty shrink (10 Dec)
middotFX weekly Three reasons why EURUSD isnt trading lower (03 Dec)
middotFX weekly Which currencies to sell if the housing downturn continues (26 Nov)
middotFX weekly The global industrial cycle is set to weaken (19 Nov)
middotFX weekly Is high-yield a canary in the global coal mine (12 Nov)
middotFX weekly Is this the end of the inflation convergence trade in EURUSD (5 Nov)
middotFX weekly Was that it for the EUR bulls (29 Oct)
middotFX weekly Hawks in opposition doves in charge (22 Oct)
middot FX weeklyContinued convergence or re-divergence(15 Oct)
middotFX weekly Thingsdont matter until they do(08 Oct)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle67382fx-weekly-a-fast-lane-to-taper-before-the-fed
middotFX weekly October seasonality is strong (01 Oct)
middotFX weekly ldquoIs 120 the new 115rdquo(24 Sep)
middot FX weekly Honey I shrunk the balance sheet(17 Sep)
middot FX weekly ldquoUSD liquidity will turn scarcer but whenrdquo (10 Sep)
middot FX weekly ldquoStrong currencies and inflationrdquo(3 Sep)
middot FX weekly ldquoUSD in the (Jackson) holerdquo (27 Aug)
middot FX weekly ldquoQ4 is the USD quarterrdquo(20 Aug)
middot FX weekly ldquoIn the year 2525rdquo(13 Aug)
middot FX weekly ldquoEURUSD ceiling or debt ceilingrdquo(6 Aug)
middot FX weeklyldquoElevator up stairs down ldquo(30 Jul)
middot FX weeklyTrump ldquospicesrdquo up EURUSD(23 Jul)
middot FX weeklyFlip-flop(16 Jul)
middot FX weeklyConsolidation time(9 Jul)
middot FX weeklyHawks R Us(2 Jul)
middot FX weeklyAnother lowflation week(25 Jun)
middot FX weeklyNo Fed put(18 Jun)
middot FX weeklyA bouncy dollar(11 Jun)
middot FX weeklyHeating up(4 Jun)
middot FX weeklySummertime sadness(28 May)
middot FX weeklySpecial counsel lessens Trumpbulence while OPEC looms(21 May)
middot FX weeklyAre China worries old hat(14 May)
middot FX weeklyInflation weekhellip(7 May)
Andreas Steno LarsenChief Global FXFI Strategistandreasstenolarsennordeacom+45 55 46 72 29
Martin EnlundGlobal Chief FX StrategistMartinEnlundnordeacom
e-marketsnordeacomarticle67382fx-weekly-a-fast-lane-to-taper-before-the-fed
httpsresearchnordeacomFICC
market upswing during the autumn to vote for it as it essentially includes an automatic buer should theautumn turn out to be much less benign than anticipated in the central scenario
If we assume that the Fed opts for a labour market linked tapering process then we find it super hawkishnews since the employment could surprise right about everyone this autumn on our models The Fed still(ocially) finds NAIRU to be around 45 which is a number that we could easily reach within 2 or 3 monthsshould current job openings just barely be filled There are currently more jobs than (ocially) unemployed inthe US Wow just wow A first reasonable taper threshold in a data dependent tapering process is likely 5with 4 being the target before the purchases are brought back to zero
Chart 3 More job openings than unemployed workers Tight too become super tight soon
Delta remains a bigger issue in Asia than in the West as the ldquozero tolerancerdquo policy has reignited bottlenecksand led to a bigger part of the Chinese supply chain being restricted than in 2020 We have seen tons ofinteresting or even bizarre explanations and excuses for the exploding freight rates in recent weeks but wefind that the real reason is very simple
If a substantial part of the supply chain (China Korea Taiwan and partly Japan) wants to pursue a zerocovid policy then we will end up with continuous large-scaled hiccups due to an outbreak in ports airportsproduction facilities or the likes The outset of the mega-move in freight rates namely coincided exactly withthe date when the Dalian port was closed due to an outbreak which has since been accelerated by closuresof portsterminals in Dalian and most recently Ningbo-Zhoushan (the third busiest port worldwide) This isjust one out of seven good reasons to expect that the Covid-19 crisis has been a trigger for an inflationaryregime-shift (Global 7 reasons why Covid-19 could lead to an inflationary regime shift) as we wrote about
e-marketsnordeacomarticle67382fx-weekly-a-fast-lane-to-taper-before-the-fed
during the week We see very little real-world momentum towards another Covid-strategy in Asia whichmeans that this phenomenon is here to stay for now You better buy your Christmas presents asap
Chart 4 The freight rates started exploding when Chinese ports were closed due to Covidoutbreaks
The global freight bonanza may stem from China but China is also clearly slowing by now A (too) strongRenminbi is one of several culprits but the credit impulse is probably the biggest antagonizer of growth Itis in other words not unlikely that we get a so-called surprise cut from China in coming weeks or monthsThe reserve requirement ratio was cut in July but it is probably not enough to refuel the credit momentum inChina and maybe almost as importantly it hasnrsquot been enough to turn the tide on the Renminbi yet
By now it is as big an issue for China to have a strong currency versus Europe if not bigger than versus theUSD why China needs a policy in place that ensures that the current Yuan momentum is reversed in broadterms Several further reserve requirement ratio cuts usually do the trick but it may be even more eective todeliver a surprise cut to one of the (gazillion of) policy rates with a direct link to the real economy such as theone-year loan prime rate The RRR cut will fuel the supply side appetite but a cut to one of the lending ratesmay be needed to fuel the demand side All-in-all it is starting to look attractive to be long USDCNY in ourview especially if we get a cocktail of Fed tapering and PBoC easing at the same time
e-marketsnordeacomarticle67382fx-weekly-a-fast-lane-to-taper-before-the-fed
Chart 5 A too strong Renminbi is now clearly weighing on the PMI momentum in ChinaTime for a reversal
SEK making a bird of a feather
The recent downdraft of the USD and the rebound in EURUSD has provided some tailwinds for the Swedishkrona As we have argued way too often now the direction of the EURUSD is currently the key input for thedirection of EURSEK That could be about change Over the past week we got a new release of the HOXhouse price series While Valueguard described the monthly decline in prices of 08 as normal it was 05percentage points weaker than the average pattern of 2005-2019 (a decline of 03)
And with pandemic-related amortisation exemptions ending on August 31 it may be that the housing marketwill not only cool further perhaps rapidly but and also impact consumption growth negatively over the nextseveral months
e-marketsnordeacomarticle67382fx-weekly-a-fast-lane-to-taper-before-the-fed
Chart 6 A housing slowdown may prompt fears
If for instance house price growth were to continue to undershoot the 2005-2019 pattern by 05 percentagepoints per month house price inflation could drop to only 2 in the first quarter of 2022 This is notnecessarily problematic - one might even argue its healthy It could nonetheless prompt fears of a biggerdowndraft which would likely be SEK-negative This together with our view on the dollar the risks forpolitical turbulence surrounding Swedens autumn budget keep us negative on the SEK
We accordingly remain long NOKSEK as i) positioning is still around 15 standard deviations short in NOKii) there are limited taper tantrum risks over the next 2-3 weeks and iii) NIBOR is headed higher due to bothhikes and tighter USD liquidity once a debt ceiling deal is completed
e-marketsnordeacomarticle67382fx-weekly-a-fast-lane-to-taper-before-the-fed
Chart 7 Foreigners are still 15 stddev short in NOK
Previous FX weeklies
FX weekly Breathe easy (15 Aug)
FX weekly Debt ceiling liquidity trade (8 Aug)
FX weekly Bullard is right (1 Aug)
FX weekly The crisis over (25 July)
FX weekly The QT road-map (18 July)
FX weekly The liquidity rollercoaster (11 July)
FX weekly Bidens regime shift (04 July)
FX weekly The moratorium (27 June)
FX weekly Run for the hills Powell (20 June)
FX weekly Regime shift (13 June)
FX weekly Boomers aint coming back (06 June)
FX weekly Woke Fed to taper (30 May)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle67382fx-weekly-a-fast-lane-to-taper-before-the-fed
FX weekly The one on USD liquidity (23 May)
FX weekly Oprahnomics revisited (16 May)
FX weekly You det a dog(e) (09 May)
FX weekly Powell is right (02 May)
FX weekly Time to strike back on Biden (25 Apr)
FX weekly Who cares about headlines (18 Apr)
FX weekly Nord-stream 2 (11 Apr)
FX weekly Nothing else matters (28 Mar)
FX weekly 20 stronger USD (21 Mar)
FX weekly Time for JPowws taper tantrum (14 Mar)
FX weekly Is it just us or is it getting crazier out there (07 Mar)
FX weekly Bye bye reflation (28 Feb)
FX weekly Enough USD liquidity to keep us running at fumes (21 Feb)
FX weekly Roses are red violets are blue (14 Feb)
FX weekly Blanchard and overheating risks (7 Feb)
FX weekly The week the game was stopped (31 Jan)
FX weekly China Joe vs Mango Mussolini (24 Jan)
FX weekly Another one Bidens the dust (17 Jan)
FX weekly Peak bullishness (10 Jan)
FX weekly The year of the Ox (03 Jan)
FX weekly How will consensus be wrongfooted in 2021 (20 Dec)
FX weekly There are decades where nothing happens (13 Dec)
FX weekly Globalization back on the menu (6 Dec)
FX weekly Letrsquos hope that money printers are running on windmills (29 Nov)
FX weekly Mnuchin right or wrong (22 Nov)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle67382fx-weekly-a-fast-lane-to-taper-before-the-fed
FX weekly Politics is like sausages you dont want to watch either being made (15 Nov)
FX weekly Biden is not that reflationary (08 Nov)
FX weekly Are markets dumb or not (01 Nov)
FX weekly Lockdowners on Parade (25 Oct)
FX weekly Buy Green before Lagarde(18 Oct)
FX weekly The one on MMT (11 Oct)
FX weekly Corona Trump (04 Oct)
FX weekly Grin and Barrett (27 Sep)
FX weekly AIT is maybe not as dovish as we thought (20 Sep)
FX weekly AIT means easier financial conditions (13 Sep)
FX weekly Good luck Powell (23 Aug)
middotFX weekly USD to be put in the Jackson Hole (16 Aug)
middotFX weekly Peoples QE (09 Aug)
middotFX weekly USD will remain the No1 reserve currency (02 Aug)
middotFX weekly Kanye vs Trump vs Biden (05 Jul)
middotFX weekly Europe vs US 1-0 (28 Jun)
middotFX weekly Should we fear a second lock-down (21 Jun)
middotFX weekly USD liquidity is not going to be as ample (14 Jun)
middotFX weekly EURphoria and panic-YCC (07 Jun)
middotFX weekly An EU solution to a EUR problem (31 May)
middotFX weekly Time to buy a EUR lottery ticket (24 May)
middotFX weekly The trade deal was always born to die (17 May)
middotFX weekly How to trade NIRP coming to America (10 May)
middotFX weekly The rise of the Virolocracy (03 May)
middotFX weekly The EUR-tyranny of the minority (27 Apr)
middotFX weekly How to glue together the EUR-ship again (20 Apr)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle67382fx-weekly-a-fast-lane-to-taper-before-the-fed
middotFX weekly The flipside of Oprahnomics(13 Apr)
middotFX weekly USD needs to weaken or else Plaza Accord 20 is likely (06 Apr)
middotFX weekly Spraying the world with money instead of with disinfectant (29 Mar)
middotFX weekly There will be a crisis and new instruments will be created (22 Mar)
middotFX weekly Sweden and UK are the odd ones out (15 Mar)
middotFX weekly A big bucket of bummerballs (08 Mar)
middotFX weekly A preppers guide to trading Corona (01 Mar)
middotFX weekly Get ready for YCC (23 Feb)
middotFX weekly Mini Mike and the Mechanics (16 Feb)
middotFX weekly Feds balance sheet may need to grow more (09 Feb)
middotFX weekly Did the Virus originate in Norway (02 Feb)
middotFX weekly Mnuchin to trick Fed into more POMO (26 Jan)
middotFX weekly A green bubble to save the world (19 Jan)
middotFX weekly Bad news for NIRP-haters (12 Jan)
middotFX weekly Coupon-bearing securities smell of QE4 (05 Jan)
middotFX weekly The Riksbank is not a leading indicator of the ECB (22 Dec)
middotFX weekly Merry Christmas from the POTUS (15 Dec)
middotFX weekly Why this is not 20152016 all over again (08 Dec)
middotFX weekly Waiting for Godot (01 Dec)
middotFX weekly Get ready for Climate QE 2 (24 Nov)
middotFX weekly FX space yet to corroborate the reflationistas (17 Nov)
middotFX weekly Dont extrapolate the 60 Bs (10 Nov)
middotFX weekly 99 problems but the NOK aint one (3 Nov)
middotFX weekly Something big just happened (27 Oct)
middotFX weekly The QE train to nowhere (20 Oct)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle67382fx-weekly-a-fast-lane-to-taper-before-the-fed
middotFX weekly The 50 Brsquos caused the downturn so what about the 60 Brsquos (13 Oct)
middotFX weekly Is everything falling apart (6 Oct)
middotFX weekly A new path for USD liquidity (29 Sep)
middotFX weekly Soft QE in October (22 Sep)
middotFX weekly Welcome to the birthday party (15 Sep)
middotFX weekly An early santa rally (08 Sep)
middotFX weekly Can you smell the Sushi yet (01 Sep)
middotFX weekly Mo taris mo cuts but whorsquos Sho Nu (25 Aug)
middotFX weekly First havens then sell confetti (18 Aug)
middotFX weekly The liquidity doom loop (11 Aug)
middotFX weekly Buy Treasuries Short Scandis Wear Diamonds (04 Aug)
middotFX weekly Lagarde better practice her Rhine dancing (28 Jul)
middotFX weekly Go big or go home (21 Jul)
middotFX weekly The liquidity plot thickens (14 Jul)
middotFX weekly e-scooters are silly (07Jul)
middotFX weekly One is exausted the other is nuts(30 Jun)
middotFX weekly Time to bring in Steven Seagal 2 (23 Jun)
middotFX weekly Get ready for climate QE (16 Jun)
middotFX weekly Cut cut cut cut (09 Jun)
middotFX weekly The absolute madman (02 Jun)
middotFX weekly Will Xi be Nikithared (26 May)
middotFX weekly Trade war ping pong (19 May)
middotFX weekly A stairway to heaven for Krona shorts (12 May)
middotFX weekly Mnuchin to bail-out Fed (05 May)
middotFX weekly 3 reasons why the USD has been resurgent (28 Apr)
middotFX weekly No doomsday (yet) (21 Apr)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle67382fx-weekly-a-fast-lane-to-taper-before-the-fed
middotFX weekly In EUR we trust (14 Apr)
middotFX weekly Crouching Tiger Hidden Inflation Dragon (07 Apr)
middotFX weekly There is a smell of 2016 in the air (31 Mar)
middotFX weekly Dear Mr Powell (24 Mar)
middotFX weekly The devils advocate (17 Mar)
middotFX weekly Mario Bla-blaghi (10 Mar)
middotFX weekly Chinese reflation (3 Mar)
middotFX weekly QT cannot run forever (24 Feb)
middotFX weekly The USD is now in Trumps hands (17 Feb)
middotFX weekly Time to care about Euro area politics again (10 Feb)
middotFX weekly Is Powell turning into a MAGA-man (03 Feb)
middotFX weekly On climate angst and fake news (27 Jan)
middotFX weekly The Mnuchin bailout (20 Jan)
middotFX weekly FX weekly Cause Im a flip-flopper yes I am (13 Jan)
middotFX weekly FX weekly Treasury vs Fed (06 Jan)
middotFX weekly Top 4 FXMM trades for Q1-2019 (01 Jan)
middotFX weekly On liquidity witches and warlocks (23 Dec)
middotFX weekly Qui Navance pas recule (16 Dec)
middotFX weekly Burnin down the house (9 Dec)
middotFX weekly In Gut we Trust (2 Dec)
middotFX weekly Pikachu aint no hobbit (25 Nov)
middotFX weekly Powell pondering pausing (18 Nov)
middotFX weekly Another SOMA-test of 113 (11 Nov)
middotFX weekly 113 will hold unless the Republicans keep both chambers (04 Nov)
middotFX weekly HIA SOMA and REBA-days (28 Oct)
middotFX weekly The debt ceiling is a USD ceiling (21 Oct)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle67382fx-weekly-a-fast-lane-to-taper-before-the-fed
middotFX weekly Volatility makes odd bedfellows (14 Oct)
middotFX weekly No Di-Maionnaise for your EURs (yet) (7 Oct)
middotFX weekly Along came year-end (30 Sep)
middotFX weekly Twin deficit scare 2 (23 Sep)
middotFX weekly The Pope of Nope has spoken (16 Sep)
middotFX weekly Who wants to impeach a +60 ISM president (09 Sep)
middotFX weekly It is time to go long Scandis again (02 Sep)
middotFX weekly The Conte-Trump alliance (26 Aug)
middotFX weekly Fat-burning shorts (19 Aug)
middotFX weekly Time to call in Steven Seagal(12 Aug)
middotFX weekly Is the cyclical momentum over-priced (05 Aug)
middotFX weekly How to trade a cease-fire (29 Jul)
middotFX weekly Whats that curve (22 Jul)
middotFX weekly The China Factor (15 Jul)
middotFX weekly Take a short trade war breather (08 Jul)
middotFX weekly Trump will never 238 (01 Jul)
middotFX weekly The USD is the best carry currency in the world (24 Jun)
middotFX weekly Dollar to provide headwinds for earning estimates (17 Jun)
middotFX weekly Fire and fury risks for the USD (10 Jun)
middotFX weekly Its not only Italy (03 Jun)
middotFX weekly The Sumo SOMA days (27 May)
middotFX weekly EM wont be sprinting if the Fed is unprinting (20 May)
middotFX weekly The two final nails in the dovish FOMC-con (13 May)
middotFX weekly Is there anything left in the USD bull-run (06 May)
middotFX weekly Dragon Energy (29 Apr)
middotFX weekly Relative curvature is the new king of FX (22 Apr)
middotFX weekly Why is EURUSD not trading lower (15 Apr)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle67382fx-weekly-a-fast-lane-to-taper-before-the-fed
middotFX weekly Like watching paint dry they said (08 Apr)
middotFX weekly The list of potential USD-positives is getting longer (01 Apr)
middotFX weekly 2 reasons why EURUSD has decoupled from rates spreads (25 Mar)
middotFX weekly Time to buy a USD lottery ticket (18 Mar)
middotFX weekly Taxation mirror on the wall who is the fairest of them all (11 Mar)
middotFX weekly Trumps game of chicken (04 Mar)
middotFX weekly Will the market neglect the clutch of canaries (25 Feb)
middotFX weekly Is the correlation break-down driven by FX hedges (18 Feb)
middotFX weekly The liquidity tide is ebbing (11 Feb)
middotFX weekly Hawkish spectacles (04 Feb)
middotFX weekly Who will stop EURUSD from moving higher (28 Jan)
middotFX weekly Did the Democrats dent the Dollar (21 Jan)
middotFX weekly Is 125 the new 120 (14 Jan)
middotFX weekly The euphoria rises (07 Jan)
middotFX weekly Paging Dr Pangloss (01 Jan)
middotFX weekly The R-star of Bethlehem (24 Dec)
middotFX weekly A numbers game (17 Dec)
middotFX weekly The year-end liquidty shrink (10 Dec)
middotFX weekly Three reasons why EURUSD isnt trading lower (03 Dec)
middotFX weekly Which currencies to sell if the housing downturn continues (26 Nov)
middotFX weekly The global industrial cycle is set to weaken (19 Nov)
middotFX weekly Is high-yield a canary in the global coal mine (12 Nov)
middotFX weekly Is this the end of the inflation convergence trade in EURUSD (5 Nov)
middotFX weekly Was that it for the EUR bulls (29 Oct)
middotFX weekly Hawks in opposition doves in charge (22 Oct)
middot FX weeklyContinued convergence or re-divergence(15 Oct)
middotFX weekly Thingsdont matter until they do(08 Oct)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle67382fx-weekly-a-fast-lane-to-taper-before-the-fed
middotFX weekly October seasonality is strong (01 Oct)
middotFX weekly ldquoIs 120 the new 115rdquo(24 Sep)
middot FX weekly Honey I shrunk the balance sheet(17 Sep)
middot FX weekly ldquoUSD liquidity will turn scarcer but whenrdquo (10 Sep)
middot FX weekly ldquoStrong currencies and inflationrdquo(3 Sep)
middot FX weekly ldquoUSD in the (Jackson) holerdquo (27 Aug)
middot FX weekly ldquoQ4 is the USD quarterrdquo(20 Aug)
middot FX weekly ldquoIn the year 2525rdquo(13 Aug)
middot FX weekly ldquoEURUSD ceiling or debt ceilingrdquo(6 Aug)
middot FX weeklyldquoElevator up stairs down ldquo(30 Jul)
middot FX weeklyTrump ldquospicesrdquo up EURUSD(23 Jul)
middot FX weeklyFlip-flop(16 Jul)
middot FX weeklyConsolidation time(9 Jul)
middot FX weeklyHawks R Us(2 Jul)
middot FX weeklyAnother lowflation week(25 Jun)
middot FX weeklyNo Fed put(18 Jun)
middot FX weeklyA bouncy dollar(11 Jun)
middot FX weeklyHeating up(4 Jun)
middot FX weeklySummertime sadness(28 May)
middot FX weeklySpecial counsel lessens Trumpbulence while OPEC looms(21 May)
middot FX weeklyAre China worries old hat(14 May)
middot FX weeklyInflation weekhellip(7 May)
Andreas Steno LarsenChief Global FXFI Strategistandreasstenolarsennordeacom+45 55 46 72 29
Martin EnlundGlobal Chief FX StrategistMartinEnlundnordeacom
e-marketsnordeacomarticle67382fx-weekly-a-fast-lane-to-taper-before-the-fed
httpsresearchnordeacomFICC
during the week We see very little real-world momentum towards another Covid-strategy in Asia whichmeans that this phenomenon is here to stay for now You better buy your Christmas presents asap
Chart 4 The freight rates started exploding when Chinese ports were closed due to Covidoutbreaks
The global freight bonanza may stem from China but China is also clearly slowing by now A (too) strongRenminbi is one of several culprits but the credit impulse is probably the biggest antagonizer of growth Itis in other words not unlikely that we get a so-called surprise cut from China in coming weeks or monthsThe reserve requirement ratio was cut in July but it is probably not enough to refuel the credit momentum inChina and maybe almost as importantly it hasnrsquot been enough to turn the tide on the Renminbi yet
By now it is as big an issue for China to have a strong currency versus Europe if not bigger than versus theUSD why China needs a policy in place that ensures that the current Yuan momentum is reversed in broadterms Several further reserve requirement ratio cuts usually do the trick but it may be even more eective todeliver a surprise cut to one of the (gazillion of) policy rates with a direct link to the real economy such as theone-year loan prime rate The RRR cut will fuel the supply side appetite but a cut to one of the lending ratesmay be needed to fuel the demand side All-in-all it is starting to look attractive to be long USDCNY in ourview especially if we get a cocktail of Fed tapering and PBoC easing at the same time
e-marketsnordeacomarticle67382fx-weekly-a-fast-lane-to-taper-before-the-fed
Chart 5 A too strong Renminbi is now clearly weighing on the PMI momentum in ChinaTime for a reversal
SEK making a bird of a feather
The recent downdraft of the USD and the rebound in EURUSD has provided some tailwinds for the Swedishkrona As we have argued way too often now the direction of the EURUSD is currently the key input for thedirection of EURSEK That could be about change Over the past week we got a new release of the HOXhouse price series While Valueguard described the monthly decline in prices of 08 as normal it was 05percentage points weaker than the average pattern of 2005-2019 (a decline of 03)
And with pandemic-related amortisation exemptions ending on August 31 it may be that the housing marketwill not only cool further perhaps rapidly but and also impact consumption growth negatively over the nextseveral months
e-marketsnordeacomarticle67382fx-weekly-a-fast-lane-to-taper-before-the-fed
Chart 6 A housing slowdown may prompt fears
If for instance house price growth were to continue to undershoot the 2005-2019 pattern by 05 percentagepoints per month house price inflation could drop to only 2 in the first quarter of 2022 This is notnecessarily problematic - one might even argue its healthy It could nonetheless prompt fears of a biggerdowndraft which would likely be SEK-negative This together with our view on the dollar the risks forpolitical turbulence surrounding Swedens autumn budget keep us negative on the SEK
We accordingly remain long NOKSEK as i) positioning is still around 15 standard deviations short in NOKii) there are limited taper tantrum risks over the next 2-3 weeks and iii) NIBOR is headed higher due to bothhikes and tighter USD liquidity once a debt ceiling deal is completed
e-marketsnordeacomarticle67382fx-weekly-a-fast-lane-to-taper-before-the-fed
Chart 7 Foreigners are still 15 stddev short in NOK
Previous FX weeklies
FX weekly Breathe easy (15 Aug)
FX weekly Debt ceiling liquidity trade (8 Aug)
FX weekly Bullard is right (1 Aug)
FX weekly The crisis over (25 July)
FX weekly The QT road-map (18 July)
FX weekly The liquidity rollercoaster (11 July)
FX weekly Bidens regime shift (04 July)
FX weekly The moratorium (27 June)
FX weekly Run for the hills Powell (20 June)
FX weekly Regime shift (13 June)
FX weekly Boomers aint coming back (06 June)
FX weekly Woke Fed to taper (30 May)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle67382fx-weekly-a-fast-lane-to-taper-before-the-fed
FX weekly The one on USD liquidity (23 May)
FX weekly Oprahnomics revisited (16 May)
FX weekly You det a dog(e) (09 May)
FX weekly Powell is right (02 May)
FX weekly Time to strike back on Biden (25 Apr)
FX weekly Who cares about headlines (18 Apr)
FX weekly Nord-stream 2 (11 Apr)
FX weekly Nothing else matters (28 Mar)
FX weekly 20 stronger USD (21 Mar)
FX weekly Time for JPowws taper tantrum (14 Mar)
FX weekly Is it just us or is it getting crazier out there (07 Mar)
FX weekly Bye bye reflation (28 Feb)
FX weekly Enough USD liquidity to keep us running at fumes (21 Feb)
FX weekly Roses are red violets are blue (14 Feb)
FX weekly Blanchard and overheating risks (7 Feb)
FX weekly The week the game was stopped (31 Jan)
FX weekly China Joe vs Mango Mussolini (24 Jan)
FX weekly Another one Bidens the dust (17 Jan)
FX weekly Peak bullishness (10 Jan)
FX weekly The year of the Ox (03 Jan)
FX weekly How will consensus be wrongfooted in 2021 (20 Dec)
FX weekly There are decades where nothing happens (13 Dec)
FX weekly Globalization back on the menu (6 Dec)
FX weekly Letrsquos hope that money printers are running on windmills (29 Nov)
FX weekly Mnuchin right or wrong (22 Nov)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle67382fx-weekly-a-fast-lane-to-taper-before-the-fed
FX weekly Politics is like sausages you dont want to watch either being made (15 Nov)
FX weekly Biden is not that reflationary (08 Nov)
FX weekly Are markets dumb or not (01 Nov)
FX weekly Lockdowners on Parade (25 Oct)
FX weekly Buy Green before Lagarde(18 Oct)
FX weekly The one on MMT (11 Oct)
FX weekly Corona Trump (04 Oct)
FX weekly Grin and Barrett (27 Sep)
FX weekly AIT is maybe not as dovish as we thought (20 Sep)
FX weekly AIT means easier financial conditions (13 Sep)
FX weekly Good luck Powell (23 Aug)
middotFX weekly USD to be put in the Jackson Hole (16 Aug)
middotFX weekly Peoples QE (09 Aug)
middotFX weekly USD will remain the No1 reserve currency (02 Aug)
middotFX weekly Kanye vs Trump vs Biden (05 Jul)
middotFX weekly Europe vs US 1-0 (28 Jun)
middotFX weekly Should we fear a second lock-down (21 Jun)
middotFX weekly USD liquidity is not going to be as ample (14 Jun)
middotFX weekly EURphoria and panic-YCC (07 Jun)
middotFX weekly An EU solution to a EUR problem (31 May)
middotFX weekly Time to buy a EUR lottery ticket (24 May)
middotFX weekly The trade deal was always born to die (17 May)
middotFX weekly How to trade NIRP coming to America (10 May)
middotFX weekly The rise of the Virolocracy (03 May)
middotFX weekly The EUR-tyranny of the minority (27 Apr)
middotFX weekly How to glue together the EUR-ship again (20 Apr)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle67382fx-weekly-a-fast-lane-to-taper-before-the-fed
middotFX weekly The flipside of Oprahnomics(13 Apr)
middotFX weekly USD needs to weaken or else Plaza Accord 20 is likely (06 Apr)
middotFX weekly Spraying the world with money instead of with disinfectant (29 Mar)
middotFX weekly There will be a crisis and new instruments will be created (22 Mar)
middotFX weekly Sweden and UK are the odd ones out (15 Mar)
middotFX weekly A big bucket of bummerballs (08 Mar)
middotFX weekly A preppers guide to trading Corona (01 Mar)
middotFX weekly Get ready for YCC (23 Feb)
middotFX weekly Mini Mike and the Mechanics (16 Feb)
middotFX weekly Feds balance sheet may need to grow more (09 Feb)
middotFX weekly Did the Virus originate in Norway (02 Feb)
middotFX weekly Mnuchin to trick Fed into more POMO (26 Jan)
middotFX weekly A green bubble to save the world (19 Jan)
middotFX weekly Bad news for NIRP-haters (12 Jan)
middotFX weekly Coupon-bearing securities smell of QE4 (05 Jan)
middotFX weekly The Riksbank is not a leading indicator of the ECB (22 Dec)
middotFX weekly Merry Christmas from the POTUS (15 Dec)
middotFX weekly Why this is not 20152016 all over again (08 Dec)
middotFX weekly Waiting for Godot (01 Dec)
middotFX weekly Get ready for Climate QE 2 (24 Nov)
middotFX weekly FX space yet to corroborate the reflationistas (17 Nov)
middotFX weekly Dont extrapolate the 60 Bs (10 Nov)
middotFX weekly 99 problems but the NOK aint one (3 Nov)
middotFX weekly Something big just happened (27 Oct)
middotFX weekly The QE train to nowhere (20 Oct)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle67382fx-weekly-a-fast-lane-to-taper-before-the-fed
middotFX weekly The 50 Brsquos caused the downturn so what about the 60 Brsquos (13 Oct)
middotFX weekly Is everything falling apart (6 Oct)
middotFX weekly A new path for USD liquidity (29 Sep)
middotFX weekly Soft QE in October (22 Sep)
middotFX weekly Welcome to the birthday party (15 Sep)
middotFX weekly An early santa rally (08 Sep)
middotFX weekly Can you smell the Sushi yet (01 Sep)
middotFX weekly Mo taris mo cuts but whorsquos Sho Nu (25 Aug)
middotFX weekly First havens then sell confetti (18 Aug)
middotFX weekly The liquidity doom loop (11 Aug)
middotFX weekly Buy Treasuries Short Scandis Wear Diamonds (04 Aug)
middotFX weekly Lagarde better practice her Rhine dancing (28 Jul)
middotFX weekly Go big or go home (21 Jul)
middotFX weekly The liquidity plot thickens (14 Jul)
middotFX weekly e-scooters are silly (07Jul)
middotFX weekly One is exausted the other is nuts(30 Jun)
middotFX weekly Time to bring in Steven Seagal 2 (23 Jun)
middotFX weekly Get ready for climate QE (16 Jun)
middotFX weekly Cut cut cut cut (09 Jun)
middotFX weekly The absolute madman (02 Jun)
middotFX weekly Will Xi be Nikithared (26 May)
middotFX weekly Trade war ping pong (19 May)
middotFX weekly A stairway to heaven for Krona shorts (12 May)
middotFX weekly Mnuchin to bail-out Fed (05 May)
middotFX weekly 3 reasons why the USD has been resurgent (28 Apr)
middotFX weekly No doomsday (yet) (21 Apr)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle67382fx-weekly-a-fast-lane-to-taper-before-the-fed
middotFX weekly In EUR we trust (14 Apr)
middotFX weekly Crouching Tiger Hidden Inflation Dragon (07 Apr)
middotFX weekly There is a smell of 2016 in the air (31 Mar)
middotFX weekly Dear Mr Powell (24 Mar)
middotFX weekly The devils advocate (17 Mar)
middotFX weekly Mario Bla-blaghi (10 Mar)
middotFX weekly Chinese reflation (3 Mar)
middotFX weekly QT cannot run forever (24 Feb)
middotFX weekly The USD is now in Trumps hands (17 Feb)
middotFX weekly Time to care about Euro area politics again (10 Feb)
middotFX weekly Is Powell turning into a MAGA-man (03 Feb)
middotFX weekly On climate angst and fake news (27 Jan)
middotFX weekly The Mnuchin bailout (20 Jan)
middotFX weekly FX weekly Cause Im a flip-flopper yes I am (13 Jan)
middotFX weekly FX weekly Treasury vs Fed (06 Jan)
middotFX weekly Top 4 FXMM trades for Q1-2019 (01 Jan)
middotFX weekly On liquidity witches and warlocks (23 Dec)
middotFX weekly Qui Navance pas recule (16 Dec)
middotFX weekly Burnin down the house (9 Dec)
middotFX weekly In Gut we Trust (2 Dec)
middotFX weekly Pikachu aint no hobbit (25 Nov)
middotFX weekly Powell pondering pausing (18 Nov)
middotFX weekly Another SOMA-test of 113 (11 Nov)
middotFX weekly 113 will hold unless the Republicans keep both chambers (04 Nov)
middotFX weekly HIA SOMA and REBA-days (28 Oct)
middotFX weekly The debt ceiling is a USD ceiling (21 Oct)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle67382fx-weekly-a-fast-lane-to-taper-before-the-fed
middotFX weekly Volatility makes odd bedfellows (14 Oct)
middotFX weekly No Di-Maionnaise for your EURs (yet) (7 Oct)
middotFX weekly Along came year-end (30 Sep)
middotFX weekly Twin deficit scare 2 (23 Sep)
middotFX weekly The Pope of Nope has spoken (16 Sep)
middotFX weekly Who wants to impeach a +60 ISM president (09 Sep)
middotFX weekly It is time to go long Scandis again (02 Sep)
middotFX weekly The Conte-Trump alliance (26 Aug)
middotFX weekly Fat-burning shorts (19 Aug)
middotFX weekly Time to call in Steven Seagal(12 Aug)
middotFX weekly Is the cyclical momentum over-priced (05 Aug)
middotFX weekly How to trade a cease-fire (29 Jul)
middotFX weekly Whats that curve (22 Jul)
middotFX weekly The China Factor (15 Jul)
middotFX weekly Take a short trade war breather (08 Jul)
middotFX weekly Trump will never 238 (01 Jul)
middotFX weekly The USD is the best carry currency in the world (24 Jun)
middotFX weekly Dollar to provide headwinds for earning estimates (17 Jun)
middotFX weekly Fire and fury risks for the USD (10 Jun)
middotFX weekly Its not only Italy (03 Jun)
middotFX weekly The Sumo SOMA days (27 May)
middotFX weekly EM wont be sprinting if the Fed is unprinting (20 May)
middotFX weekly The two final nails in the dovish FOMC-con (13 May)
middotFX weekly Is there anything left in the USD bull-run (06 May)
middotFX weekly Dragon Energy (29 Apr)
middotFX weekly Relative curvature is the new king of FX (22 Apr)
middotFX weekly Why is EURUSD not trading lower (15 Apr)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle67382fx-weekly-a-fast-lane-to-taper-before-the-fed
middotFX weekly Like watching paint dry they said (08 Apr)
middotFX weekly The list of potential USD-positives is getting longer (01 Apr)
middotFX weekly 2 reasons why EURUSD has decoupled from rates spreads (25 Mar)
middotFX weekly Time to buy a USD lottery ticket (18 Mar)
middotFX weekly Taxation mirror on the wall who is the fairest of them all (11 Mar)
middotFX weekly Trumps game of chicken (04 Mar)
middotFX weekly Will the market neglect the clutch of canaries (25 Feb)
middotFX weekly Is the correlation break-down driven by FX hedges (18 Feb)
middotFX weekly The liquidity tide is ebbing (11 Feb)
middotFX weekly Hawkish spectacles (04 Feb)
middotFX weekly Who will stop EURUSD from moving higher (28 Jan)
middotFX weekly Did the Democrats dent the Dollar (21 Jan)
middotFX weekly Is 125 the new 120 (14 Jan)
middotFX weekly The euphoria rises (07 Jan)
middotFX weekly Paging Dr Pangloss (01 Jan)
middotFX weekly The R-star of Bethlehem (24 Dec)
middotFX weekly A numbers game (17 Dec)
middotFX weekly The year-end liquidty shrink (10 Dec)
middotFX weekly Three reasons why EURUSD isnt trading lower (03 Dec)
middotFX weekly Which currencies to sell if the housing downturn continues (26 Nov)
middotFX weekly The global industrial cycle is set to weaken (19 Nov)
middotFX weekly Is high-yield a canary in the global coal mine (12 Nov)
middotFX weekly Is this the end of the inflation convergence trade in EURUSD (5 Nov)
middotFX weekly Was that it for the EUR bulls (29 Oct)
middotFX weekly Hawks in opposition doves in charge (22 Oct)
middot FX weeklyContinued convergence or re-divergence(15 Oct)
middotFX weekly Thingsdont matter until they do(08 Oct)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle67382fx-weekly-a-fast-lane-to-taper-before-the-fed
middotFX weekly October seasonality is strong (01 Oct)
middotFX weekly ldquoIs 120 the new 115rdquo(24 Sep)
middot FX weekly Honey I shrunk the balance sheet(17 Sep)
middot FX weekly ldquoUSD liquidity will turn scarcer but whenrdquo (10 Sep)
middot FX weekly ldquoStrong currencies and inflationrdquo(3 Sep)
middot FX weekly ldquoUSD in the (Jackson) holerdquo (27 Aug)
middot FX weekly ldquoQ4 is the USD quarterrdquo(20 Aug)
middot FX weekly ldquoIn the year 2525rdquo(13 Aug)
middot FX weekly ldquoEURUSD ceiling or debt ceilingrdquo(6 Aug)
middot FX weeklyldquoElevator up stairs down ldquo(30 Jul)
middot FX weeklyTrump ldquospicesrdquo up EURUSD(23 Jul)
middot FX weeklyFlip-flop(16 Jul)
middot FX weeklyConsolidation time(9 Jul)
middot FX weeklyHawks R Us(2 Jul)
middot FX weeklyAnother lowflation week(25 Jun)
middot FX weeklyNo Fed put(18 Jun)
middot FX weeklyA bouncy dollar(11 Jun)
middot FX weeklyHeating up(4 Jun)
middot FX weeklySummertime sadness(28 May)
middot FX weeklySpecial counsel lessens Trumpbulence while OPEC looms(21 May)
middot FX weeklyAre China worries old hat(14 May)
middot FX weeklyInflation weekhellip(7 May)
Andreas Steno LarsenChief Global FXFI Strategistandreasstenolarsennordeacom+45 55 46 72 29
Martin EnlundGlobal Chief FX StrategistMartinEnlundnordeacom
e-marketsnordeacomarticle67382fx-weekly-a-fast-lane-to-taper-before-the-fed
httpsresearchnordeacomFICC
Chart 5 A too strong Renminbi is now clearly weighing on the PMI momentum in ChinaTime for a reversal
SEK making a bird of a feather
The recent downdraft of the USD and the rebound in EURUSD has provided some tailwinds for the Swedishkrona As we have argued way too often now the direction of the EURUSD is currently the key input for thedirection of EURSEK That could be about change Over the past week we got a new release of the HOXhouse price series While Valueguard described the monthly decline in prices of 08 as normal it was 05percentage points weaker than the average pattern of 2005-2019 (a decline of 03)
And with pandemic-related amortisation exemptions ending on August 31 it may be that the housing marketwill not only cool further perhaps rapidly but and also impact consumption growth negatively over the nextseveral months
e-marketsnordeacomarticle67382fx-weekly-a-fast-lane-to-taper-before-the-fed
Chart 6 A housing slowdown may prompt fears
If for instance house price growth were to continue to undershoot the 2005-2019 pattern by 05 percentagepoints per month house price inflation could drop to only 2 in the first quarter of 2022 This is notnecessarily problematic - one might even argue its healthy It could nonetheless prompt fears of a biggerdowndraft which would likely be SEK-negative This together with our view on the dollar the risks forpolitical turbulence surrounding Swedens autumn budget keep us negative on the SEK
We accordingly remain long NOKSEK as i) positioning is still around 15 standard deviations short in NOKii) there are limited taper tantrum risks over the next 2-3 weeks and iii) NIBOR is headed higher due to bothhikes and tighter USD liquidity once a debt ceiling deal is completed
e-marketsnordeacomarticle67382fx-weekly-a-fast-lane-to-taper-before-the-fed
Chart 7 Foreigners are still 15 stddev short in NOK
Previous FX weeklies
FX weekly Breathe easy (15 Aug)
FX weekly Debt ceiling liquidity trade (8 Aug)
FX weekly Bullard is right (1 Aug)
FX weekly The crisis over (25 July)
FX weekly The QT road-map (18 July)
FX weekly The liquidity rollercoaster (11 July)
FX weekly Bidens regime shift (04 July)
FX weekly The moratorium (27 June)
FX weekly Run for the hills Powell (20 June)
FX weekly Regime shift (13 June)
FX weekly Boomers aint coming back (06 June)
FX weekly Woke Fed to taper (30 May)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle67382fx-weekly-a-fast-lane-to-taper-before-the-fed
FX weekly The one on USD liquidity (23 May)
FX weekly Oprahnomics revisited (16 May)
FX weekly You det a dog(e) (09 May)
FX weekly Powell is right (02 May)
FX weekly Time to strike back on Biden (25 Apr)
FX weekly Who cares about headlines (18 Apr)
FX weekly Nord-stream 2 (11 Apr)
FX weekly Nothing else matters (28 Mar)
FX weekly 20 stronger USD (21 Mar)
FX weekly Time for JPowws taper tantrum (14 Mar)
FX weekly Is it just us or is it getting crazier out there (07 Mar)
FX weekly Bye bye reflation (28 Feb)
FX weekly Enough USD liquidity to keep us running at fumes (21 Feb)
FX weekly Roses are red violets are blue (14 Feb)
FX weekly Blanchard and overheating risks (7 Feb)
FX weekly The week the game was stopped (31 Jan)
FX weekly China Joe vs Mango Mussolini (24 Jan)
FX weekly Another one Bidens the dust (17 Jan)
FX weekly Peak bullishness (10 Jan)
FX weekly The year of the Ox (03 Jan)
FX weekly How will consensus be wrongfooted in 2021 (20 Dec)
FX weekly There are decades where nothing happens (13 Dec)
FX weekly Globalization back on the menu (6 Dec)
FX weekly Letrsquos hope that money printers are running on windmills (29 Nov)
FX weekly Mnuchin right or wrong (22 Nov)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle67382fx-weekly-a-fast-lane-to-taper-before-the-fed
FX weekly Politics is like sausages you dont want to watch either being made (15 Nov)
FX weekly Biden is not that reflationary (08 Nov)
FX weekly Are markets dumb or not (01 Nov)
FX weekly Lockdowners on Parade (25 Oct)
FX weekly Buy Green before Lagarde(18 Oct)
FX weekly The one on MMT (11 Oct)
FX weekly Corona Trump (04 Oct)
FX weekly Grin and Barrett (27 Sep)
FX weekly AIT is maybe not as dovish as we thought (20 Sep)
FX weekly AIT means easier financial conditions (13 Sep)
FX weekly Good luck Powell (23 Aug)
middotFX weekly USD to be put in the Jackson Hole (16 Aug)
middotFX weekly Peoples QE (09 Aug)
middotFX weekly USD will remain the No1 reserve currency (02 Aug)
middotFX weekly Kanye vs Trump vs Biden (05 Jul)
middotFX weekly Europe vs US 1-0 (28 Jun)
middotFX weekly Should we fear a second lock-down (21 Jun)
middotFX weekly USD liquidity is not going to be as ample (14 Jun)
middotFX weekly EURphoria and panic-YCC (07 Jun)
middotFX weekly An EU solution to a EUR problem (31 May)
middotFX weekly Time to buy a EUR lottery ticket (24 May)
middotFX weekly The trade deal was always born to die (17 May)
middotFX weekly How to trade NIRP coming to America (10 May)
middotFX weekly The rise of the Virolocracy (03 May)
middotFX weekly The EUR-tyranny of the minority (27 Apr)
middotFX weekly How to glue together the EUR-ship again (20 Apr)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle67382fx-weekly-a-fast-lane-to-taper-before-the-fed
middotFX weekly The flipside of Oprahnomics(13 Apr)
middotFX weekly USD needs to weaken or else Plaza Accord 20 is likely (06 Apr)
middotFX weekly Spraying the world with money instead of with disinfectant (29 Mar)
middotFX weekly There will be a crisis and new instruments will be created (22 Mar)
middotFX weekly Sweden and UK are the odd ones out (15 Mar)
middotFX weekly A big bucket of bummerballs (08 Mar)
middotFX weekly A preppers guide to trading Corona (01 Mar)
middotFX weekly Get ready for YCC (23 Feb)
middotFX weekly Mini Mike and the Mechanics (16 Feb)
middotFX weekly Feds balance sheet may need to grow more (09 Feb)
middotFX weekly Did the Virus originate in Norway (02 Feb)
middotFX weekly Mnuchin to trick Fed into more POMO (26 Jan)
middotFX weekly A green bubble to save the world (19 Jan)
middotFX weekly Bad news for NIRP-haters (12 Jan)
middotFX weekly Coupon-bearing securities smell of QE4 (05 Jan)
middotFX weekly The Riksbank is not a leading indicator of the ECB (22 Dec)
middotFX weekly Merry Christmas from the POTUS (15 Dec)
middotFX weekly Why this is not 20152016 all over again (08 Dec)
middotFX weekly Waiting for Godot (01 Dec)
middotFX weekly Get ready for Climate QE 2 (24 Nov)
middotFX weekly FX space yet to corroborate the reflationistas (17 Nov)
middotFX weekly Dont extrapolate the 60 Bs (10 Nov)
middotFX weekly 99 problems but the NOK aint one (3 Nov)
middotFX weekly Something big just happened (27 Oct)
middotFX weekly The QE train to nowhere (20 Oct)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle67382fx-weekly-a-fast-lane-to-taper-before-the-fed
middotFX weekly The 50 Brsquos caused the downturn so what about the 60 Brsquos (13 Oct)
middotFX weekly Is everything falling apart (6 Oct)
middotFX weekly A new path for USD liquidity (29 Sep)
middotFX weekly Soft QE in October (22 Sep)
middotFX weekly Welcome to the birthday party (15 Sep)
middotFX weekly An early santa rally (08 Sep)
middotFX weekly Can you smell the Sushi yet (01 Sep)
middotFX weekly Mo taris mo cuts but whorsquos Sho Nu (25 Aug)
middotFX weekly First havens then sell confetti (18 Aug)
middotFX weekly The liquidity doom loop (11 Aug)
middotFX weekly Buy Treasuries Short Scandis Wear Diamonds (04 Aug)
middotFX weekly Lagarde better practice her Rhine dancing (28 Jul)
middotFX weekly Go big or go home (21 Jul)
middotFX weekly The liquidity plot thickens (14 Jul)
middotFX weekly e-scooters are silly (07Jul)
middotFX weekly One is exausted the other is nuts(30 Jun)
middotFX weekly Time to bring in Steven Seagal 2 (23 Jun)
middotFX weekly Get ready for climate QE (16 Jun)
middotFX weekly Cut cut cut cut (09 Jun)
middotFX weekly The absolute madman (02 Jun)
middotFX weekly Will Xi be Nikithared (26 May)
middotFX weekly Trade war ping pong (19 May)
middotFX weekly A stairway to heaven for Krona shorts (12 May)
middotFX weekly Mnuchin to bail-out Fed (05 May)
middotFX weekly 3 reasons why the USD has been resurgent (28 Apr)
middotFX weekly No doomsday (yet) (21 Apr)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle67382fx-weekly-a-fast-lane-to-taper-before-the-fed
middotFX weekly In EUR we trust (14 Apr)
middotFX weekly Crouching Tiger Hidden Inflation Dragon (07 Apr)
middotFX weekly There is a smell of 2016 in the air (31 Mar)
middotFX weekly Dear Mr Powell (24 Mar)
middotFX weekly The devils advocate (17 Mar)
middotFX weekly Mario Bla-blaghi (10 Mar)
middotFX weekly Chinese reflation (3 Mar)
middotFX weekly QT cannot run forever (24 Feb)
middotFX weekly The USD is now in Trumps hands (17 Feb)
middotFX weekly Time to care about Euro area politics again (10 Feb)
middotFX weekly Is Powell turning into a MAGA-man (03 Feb)
middotFX weekly On climate angst and fake news (27 Jan)
middotFX weekly The Mnuchin bailout (20 Jan)
middotFX weekly FX weekly Cause Im a flip-flopper yes I am (13 Jan)
middotFX weekly FX weekly Treasury vs Fed (06 Jan)
middotFX weekly Top 4 FXMM trades for Q1-2019 (01 Jan)
middotFX weekly On liquidity witches and warlocks (23 Dec)
middotFX weekly Qui Navance pas recule (16 Dec)
middotFX weekly Burnin down the house (9 Dec)
middotFX weekly In Gut we Trust (2 Dec)
middotFX weekly Pikachu aint no hobbit (25 Nov)
middotFX weekly Powell pondering pausing (18 Nov)
middotFX weekly Another SOMA-test of 113 (11 Nov)
middotFX weekly 113 will hold unless the Republicans keep both chambers (04 Nov)
middotFX weekly HIA SOMA and REBA-days (28 Oct)
middotFX weekly The debt ceiling is a USD ceiling (21 Oct)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle67382fx-weekly-a-fast-lane-to-taper-before-the-fed
middotFX weekly Volatility makes odd bedfellows (14 Oct)
middotFX weekly No Di-Maionnaise for your EURs (yet) (7 Oct)
middotFX weekly Along came year-end (30 Sep)
middotFX weekly Twin deficit scare 2 (23 Sep)
middotFX weekly The Pope of Nope has spoken (16 Sep)
middotFX weekly Who wants to impeach a +60 ISM president (09 Sep)
middotFX weekly It is time to go long Scandis again (02 Sep)
middotFX weekly The Conte-Trump alliance (26 Aug)
middotFX weekly Fat-burning shorts (19 Aug)
middotFX weekly Time to call in Steven Seagal(12 Aug)
middotFX weekly Is the cyclical momentum over-priced (05 Aug)
middotFX weekly How to trade a cease-fire (29 Jul)
middotFX weekly Whats that curve (22 Jul)
middotFX weekly The China Factor (15 Jul)
middotFX weekly Take a short trade war breather (08 Jul)
middotFX weekly Trump will never 238 (01 Jul)
middotFX weekly The USD is the best carry currency in the world (24 Jun)
middotFX weekly Dollar to provide headwinds for earning estimates (17 Jun)
middotFX weekly Fire and fury risks for the USD (10 Jun)
middotFX weekly Its not only Italy (03 Jun)
middotFX weekly The Sumo SOMA days (27 May)
middotFX weekly EM wont be sprinting if the Fed is unprinting (20 May)
middotFX weekly The two final nails in the dovish FOMC-con (13 May)
middotFX weekly Is there anything left in the USD bull-run (06 May)
middotFX weekly Dragon Energy (29 Apr)
middotFX weekly Relative curvature is the new king of FX (22 Apr)
middotFX weekly Why is EURUSD not trading lower (15 Apr)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle67382fx-weekly-a-fast-lane-to-taper-before-the-fed
middotFX weekly Like watching paint dry they said (08 Apr)
middotFX weekly The list of potential USD-positives is getting longer (01 Apr)
middotFX weekly 2 reasons why EURUSD has decoupled from rates spreads (25 Mar)
middotFX weekly Time to buy a USD lottery ticket (18 Mar)
middotFX weekly Taxation mirror on the wall who is the fairest of them all (11 Mar)
middotFX weekly Trumps game of chicken (04 Mar)
middotFX weekly Will the market neglect the clutch of canaries (25 Feb)
middotFX weekly Is the correlation break-down driven by FX hedges (18 Feb)
middotFX weekly The liquidity tide is ebbing (11 Feb)
middotFX weekly Hawkish spectacles (04 Feb)
middotFX weekly Who will stop EURUSD from moving higher (28 Jan)
middotFX weekly Did the Democrats dent the Dollar (21 Jan)
middotFX weekly Is 125 the new 120 (14 Jan)
middotFX weekly The euphoria rises (07 Jan)
middotFX weekly Paging Dr Pangloss (01 Jan)
middotFX weekly The R-star of Bethlehem (24 Dec)
middotFX weekly A numbers game (17 Dec)
middotFX weekly The year-end liquidty shrink (10 Dec)
middotFX weekly Three reasons why EURUSD isnt trading lower (03 Dec)
middotFX weekly Which currencies to sell if the housing downturn continues (26 Nov)
middotFX weekly The global industrial cycle is set to weaken (19 Nov)
middotFX weekly Is high-yield a canary in the global coal mine (12 Nov)
middotFX weekly Is this the end of the inflation convergence trade in EURUSD (5 Nov)
middotFX weekly Was that it for the EUR bulls (29 Oct)
middotFX weekly Hawks in opposition doves in charge (22 Oct)
middot FX weeklyContinued convergence or re-divergence(15 Oct)
middotFX weekly Thingsdont matter until they do(08 Oct)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle67382fx-weekly-a-fast-lane-to-taper-before-the-fed
middotFX weekly October seasonality is strong (01 Oct)
middotFX weekly ldquoIs 120 the new 115rdquo(24 Sep)
middot FX weekly Honey I shrunk the balance sheet(17 Sep)
middot FX weekly ldquoUSD liquidity will turn scarcer but whenrdquo (10 Sep)
middot FX weekly ldquoStrong currencies and inflationrdquo(3 Sep)
middot FX weekly ldquoUSD in the (Jackson) holerdquo (27 Aug)
middot FX weekly ldquoQ4 is the USD quarterrdquo(20 Aug)
middot FX weekly ldquoIn the year 2525rdquo(13 Aug)
middot FX weekly ldquoEURUSD ceiling or debt ceilingrdquo(6 Aug)
middot FX weeklyldquoElevator up stairs down ldquo(30 Jul)
middot FX weeklyTrump ldquospicesrdquo up EURUSD(23 Jul)
middot FX weeklyFlip-flop(16 Jul)
middot FX weeklyConsolidation time(9 Jul)
middot FX weeklyHawks R Us(2 Jul)
middot FX weeklyAnother lowflation week(25 Jun)
middot FX weeklyNo Fed put(18 Jun)
middot FX weeklyA bouncy dollar(11 Jun)
middot FX weeklyHeating up(4 Jun)
middot FX weeklySummertime sadness(28 May)
middot FX weeklySpecial counsel lessens Trumpbulence while OPEC looms(21 May)
middot FX weeklyAre China worries old hat(14 May)
middot FX weeklyInflation weekhellip(7 May)
Andreas Steno LarsenChief Global FXFI Strategistandreasstenolarsennordeacom+45 55 46 72 29
Martin EnlundGlobal Chief FX StrategistMartinEnlundnordeacom
e-marketsnordeacomarticle67382fx-weekly-a-fast-lane-to-taper-before-the-fed
httpsresearchnordeacomFICC
Chart 6 A housing slowdown may prompt fears
If for instance house price growth were to continue to undershoot the 2005-2019 pattern by 05 percentagepoints per month house price inflation could drop to only 2 in the first quarter of 2022 This is notnecessarily problematic - one might even argue its healthy It could nonetheless prompt fears of a biggerdowndraft which would likely be SEK-negative This together with our view on the dollar the risks forpolitical turbulence surrounding Swedens autumn budget keep us negative on the SEK
We accordingly remain long NOKSEK as i) positioning is still around 15 standard deviations short in NOKii) there are limited taper tantrum risks over the next 2-3 weeks and iii) NIBOR is headed higher due to bothhikes and tighter USD liquidity once a debt ceiling deal is completed
e-marketsnordeacomarticle67382fx-weekly-a-fast-lane-to-taper-before-the-fed
Chart 7 Foreigners are still 15 stddev short in NOK
Previous FX weeklies
FX weekly Breathe easy (15 Aug)
FX weekly Debt ceiling liquidity trade (8 Aug)
FX weekly Bullard is right (1 Aug)
FX weekly The crisis over (25 July)
FX weekly The QT road-map (18 July)
FX weekly The liquidity rollercoaster (11 July)
FX weekly Bidens regime shift (04 July)
FX weekly The moratorium (27 June)
FX weekly Run for the hills Powell (20 June)
FX weekly Regime shift (13 June)
FX weekly Boomers aint coming back (06 June)
FX weekly Woke Fed to taper (30 May)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle67382fx-weekly-a-fast-lane-to-taper-before-the-fed
FX weekly The one on USD liquidity (23 May)
FX weekly Oprahnomics revisited (16 May)
FX weekly You det a dog(e) (09 May)
FX weekly Powell is right (02 May)
FX weekly Time to strike back on Biden (25 Apr)
FX weekly Who cares about headlines (18 Apr)
FX weekly Nord-stream 2 (11 Apr)
FX weekly Nothing else matters (28 Mar)
FX weekly 20 stronger USD (21 Mar)
FX weekly Time for JPowws taper tantrum (14 Mar)
FX weekly Is it just us or is it getting crazier out there (07 Mar)
FX weekly Bye bye reflation (28 Feb)
FX weekly Enough USD liquidity to keep us running at fumes (21 Feb)
FX weekly Roses are red violets are blue (14 Feb)
FX weekly Blanchard and overheating risks (7 Feb)
FX weekly The week the game was stopped (31 Jan)
FX weekly China Joe vs Mango Mussolini (24 Jan)
FX weekly Another one Bidens the dust (17 Jan)
FX weekly Peak bullishness (10 Jan)
FX weekly The year of the Ox (03 Jan)
FX weekly How will consensus be wrongfooted in 2021 (20 Dec)
FX weekly There are decades where nothing happens (13 Dec)
FX weekly Globalization back on the menu (6 Dec)
FX weekly Letrsquos hope that money printers are running on windmills (29 Nov)
FX weekly Mnuchin right or wrong (22 Nov)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle67382fx-weekly-a-fast-lane-to-taper-before-the-fed
FX weekly Politics is like sausages you dont want to watch either being made (15 Nov)
FX weekly Biden is not that reflationary (08 Nov)
FX weekly Are markets dumb or not (01 Nov)
FX weekly Lockdowners on Parade (25 Oct)
FX weekly Buy Green before Lagarde(18 Oct)
FX weekly The one on MMT (11 Oct)
FX weekly Corona Trump (04 Oct)
FX weekly Grin and Barrett (27 Sep)
FX weekly AIT is maybe not as dovish as we thought (20 Sep)
FX weekly AIT means easier financial conditions (13 Sep)
FX weekly Good luck Powell (23 Aug)
middotFX weekly USD to be put in the Jackson Hole (16 Aug)
middotFX weekly Peoples QE (09 Aug)
middotFX weekly USD will remain the No1 reserve currency (02 Aug)
middotFX weekly Kanye vs Trump vs Biden (05 Jul)
middotFX weekly Europe vs US 1-0 (28 Jun)
middotFX weekly Should we fear a second lock-down (21 Jun)
middotFX weekly USD liquidity is not going to be as ample (14 Jun)
middotFX weekly EURphoria and panic-YCC (07 Jun)
middotFX weekly An EU solution to a EUR problem (31 May)
middotFX weekly Time to buy a EUR lottery ticket (24 May)
middotFX weekly The trade deal was always born to die (17 May)
middotFX weekly How to trade NIRP coming to America (10 May)
middotFX weekly The rise of the Virolocracy (03 May)
middotFX weekly The EUR-tyranny of the minority (27 Apr)
middotFX weekly How to glue together the EUR-ship again (20 Apr)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle67382fx-weekly-a-fast-lane-to-taper-before-the-fed
middotFX weekly The flipside of Oprahnomics(13 Apr)
middotFX weekly USD needs to weaken or else Plaza Accord 20 is likely (06 Apr)
middotFX weekly Spraying the world with money instead of with disinfectant (29 Mar)
middotFX weekly There will be a crisis and new instruments will be created (22 Mar)
middotFX weekly Sweden and UK are the odd ones out (15 Mar)
middotFX weekly A big bucket of bummerballs (08 Mar)
middotFX weekly A preppers guide to trading Corona (01 Mar)
middotFX weekly Get ready for YCC (23 Feb)
middotFX weekly Mini Mike and the Mechanics (16 Feb)
middotFX weekly Feds balance sheet may need to grow more (09 Feb)
middotFX weekly Did the Virus originate in Norway (02 Feb)
middotFX weekly Mnuchin to trick Fed into more POMO (26 Jan)
middotFX weekly A green bubble to save the world (19 Jan)
middotFX weekly Bad news for NIRP-haters (12 Jan)
middotFX weekly Coupon-bearing securities smell of QE4 (05 Jan)
middotFX weekly The Riksbank is not a leading indicator of the ECB (22 Dec)
middotFX weekly Merry Christmas from the POTUS (15 Dec)
middotFX weekly Why this is not 20152016 all over again (08 Dec)
middotFX weekly Waiting for Godot (01 Dec)
middotFX weekly Get ready for Climate QE 2 (24 Nov)
middotFX weekly FX space yet to corroborate the reflationistas (17 Nov)
middotFX weekly Dont extrapolate the 60 Bs (10 Nov)
middotFX weekly 99 problems but the NOK aint one (3 Nov)
middotFX weekly Something big just happened (27 Oct)
middotFX weekly The QE train to nowhere (20 Oct)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle67382fx-weekly-a-fast-lane-to-taper-before-the-fed
middotFX weekly The 50 Brsquos caused the downturn so what about the 60 Brsquos (13 Oct)
middotFX weekly Is everything falling apart (6 Oct)
middotFX weekly A new path for USD liquidity (29 Sep)
middotFX weekly Soft QE in October (22 Sep)
middotFX weekly Welcome to the birthday party (15 Sep)
middotFX weekly An early santa rally (08 Sep)
middotFX weekly Can you smell the Sushi yet (01 Sep)
middotFX weekly Mo taris mo cuts but whorsquos Sho Nu (25 Aug)
middotFX weekly First havens then sell confetti (18 Aug)
middotFX weekly The liquidity doom loop (11 Aug)
middotFX weekly Buy Treasuries Short Scandis Wear Diamonds (04 Aug)
middotFX weekly Lagarde better practice her Rhine dancing (28 Jul)
middotFX weekly Go big or go home (21 Jul)
middotFX weekly The liquidity plot thickens (14 Jul)
middotFX weekly e-scooters are silly (07Jul)
middotFX weekly One is exausted the other is nuts(30 Jun)
middotFX weekly Time to bring in Steven Seagal 2 (23 Jun)
middotFX weekly Get ready for climate QE (16 Jun)
middotFX weekly Cut cut cut cut (09 Jun)
middotFX weekly The absolute madman (02 Jun)
middotFX weekly Will Xi be Nikithared (26 May)
middotFX weekly Trade war ping pong (19 May)
middotFX weekly A stairway to heaven for Krona shorts (12 May)
middotFX weekly Mnuchin to bail-out Fed (05 May)
middotFX weekly 3 reasons why the USD has been resurgent (28 Apr)
middotFX weekly No doomsday (yet) (21 Apr)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle67382fx-weekly-a-fast-lane-to-taper-before-the-fed
middotFX weekly In EUR we trust (14 Apr)
middotFX weekly Crouching Tiger Hidden Inflation Dragon (07 Apr)
middotFX weekly There is a smell of 2016 in the air (31 Mar)
middotFX weekly Dear Mr Powell (24 Mar)
middotFX weekly The devils advocate (17 Mar)
middotFX weekly Mario Bla-blaghi (10 Mar)
middotFX weekly Chinese reflation (3 Mar)
middotFX weekly QT cannot run forever (24 Feb)
middotFX weekly The USD is now in Trumps hands (17 Feb)
middotFX weekly Time to care about Euro area politics again (10 Feb)
middotFX weekly Is Powell turning into a MAGA-man (03 Feb)
middotFX weekly On climate angst and fake news (27 Jan)
middotFX weekly The Mnuchin bailout (20 Jan)
middotFX weekly FX weekly Cause Im a flip-flopper yes I am (13 Jan)
middotFX weekly FX weekly Treasury vs Fed (06 Jan)
middotFX weekly Top 4 FXMM trades for Q1-2019 (01 Jan)
middotFX weekly On liquidity witches and warlocks (23 Dec)
middotFX weekly Qui Navance pas recule (16 Dec)
middotFX weekly Burnin down the house (9 Dec)
middotFX weekly In Gut we Trust (2 Dec)
middotFX weekly Pikachu aint no hobbit (25 Nov)
middotFX weekly Powell pondering pausing (18 Nov)
middotFX weekly Another SOMA-test of 113 (11 Nov)
middotFX weekly 113 will hold unless the Republicans keep both chambers (04 Nov)
middotFX weekly HIA SOMA and REBA-days (28 Oct)
middotFX weekly The debt ceiling is a USD ceiling (21 Oct)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle67382fx-weekly-a-fast-lane-to-taper-before-the-fed
middotFX weekly Volatility makes odd bedfellows (14 Oct)
middotFX weekly No Di-Maionnaise for your EURs (yet) (7 Oct)
middotFX weekly Along came year-end (30 Sep)
middotFX weekly Twin deficit scare 2 (23 Sep)
middotFX weekly The Pope of Nope has spoken (16 Sep)
middotFX weekly Who wants to impeach a +60 ISM president (09 Sep)
middotFX weekly It is time to go long Scandis again (02 Sep)
middotFX weekly The Conte-Trump alliance (26 Aug)
middotFX weekly Fat-burning shorts (19 Aug)
middotFX weekly Time to call in Steven Seagal(12 Aug)
middotFX weekly Is the cyclical momentum over-priced (05 Aug)
middotFX weekly How to trade a cease-fire (29 Jul)
middotFX weekly Whats that curve (22 Jul)
middotFX weekly The China Factor (15 Jul)
middotFX weekly Take a short trade war breather (08 Jul)
middotFX weekly Trump will never 238 (01 Jul)
middotFX weekly The USD is the best carry currency in the world (24 Jun)
middotFX weekly Dollar to provide headwinds for earning estimates (17 Jun)
middotFX weekly Fire and fury risks for the USD (10 Jun)
middotFX weekly Its not only Italy (03 Jun)
middotFX weekly The Sumo SOMA days (27 May)
middotFX weekly EM wont be sprinting if the Fed is unprinting (20 May)
middotFX weekly The two final nails in the dovish FOMC-con (13 May)
middotFX weekly Is there anything left in the USD bull-run (06 May)
middotFX weekly Dragon Energy (29 Apr)
middotFX weekly Relative curvature is the new king of FX (22 Apr)
middotFX weekly Why is EURUSD not trading lower (15 Apr)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle67382fx-weekly-a-fast-lane-to-taper-before-the-fed
middotFX weekly Like watching paint dry they said (08 Apr)
middotFX weekly The list of potential USD-positives is getting longer (01 Apr)
middotFX weekly 2 reasons why EURUSD has decoupled from rates spreads (25 Mar)
middotFX weekly Time to buy a USD lottery ticket (18 Mar)
middotFX weekly Taxation mirror on the wall who is the fairest of them all (11 Mar)
middotFX weekly Trumps game of chicken (04 Mar)
middotFX weekly Will the market neglect the clutch of canaries (25 Feb)
middotFX weekly Is the correlation break-down driven by FX hedges (18 Feb)
middotFX weekly The liquidity tide is ebbing (11 Feb)
middotFX weekly Hawkish spectacles (04 Feb)
middotFX weekly Who will stop EURUSD from moving higher (28 Jan)
middotFX weekly Did the Democrats dent the Dollar (21 Jan)
middotFX weekly Is 125 the new 120 (14 Jan)
middotFX weekly The euphoria rises (07 Jan)
middotFX weekly Paging Dr Pangloss (01 Jan)
middotFX weekly The R-star of Bethlehem (24 Dec)
middotFX weekly A numbers game (17 Dec)
middotFX weekly The year-end liquidty shrink (10 Dec)
middotFX weekly Three reasons why EURUSD isnt trading lower (03 Dec)
middotFX weekly Which currencies to sell if the housing downturn continues (26 Nov)
middotFX weekly The global industrial cycle is set to weaken (19 Nov)
middotFX weekly Is high-yield a canary in the global coal mine (12 Nov)
middotFX weekly Is this the end of the inflation convergence trade in EURUSD (5 Nov)
middotFX weekly Was that it for the EUR bulls (29 Oct)
middotFX weekly Hawks in opposition doves in charge (22 Oct)
middot FX weeklyContinued convergence or re-divergence(15 Oct)
middotFX weekly Thingsdont matter until they do(08 Oct)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle67382fx-weekly-a-fast-lane-to-taper-before-the-fed
middotFX weekly October seasonality is strong (01 Oct)
middotFX weekly ldquoIs 120 the new 115rdquo(24 Sep)
middot FX weekly Honey I shrunk the balance sheet(17 Sep)
middot FX weekly ldquoUSD liquidity will turn scarcer but whenrdquo (10 Sep)
middot FX weekly ldquoStrong currencies and inflationrdquo(3 Sep)
middot FX weekly ldquoUSD in the (Jackson) holerdquo (27 Aug)
middot FX weekly ldquoQ4 is the USD quarterrdquo(20 Aug)
middot FX weekly ldquoIn the year 2525rdquo(13 Aug)
middot FX weekly ldquoEURUSD ceiling or debt ceilingrdquo(6 Aug)
middot FX weeklyldquoElevator up stairs down ldquo(30 Jul)
middot FX weeklyTrump ldquospicesrdquo up EURUSD(23 Jul)
middot FX weeklyFlip-flop(16 Jul)
middot FX weeklyConsolidation time(9 Jul)
middot FX weeklyHawks R Us(2 Jul)
middot FX weeklyAnother lowflation week(25 Jun)
middot FX weeklyNo Fed put(18 Jun)
middot FX weeklyA bouncy dollar(11 Jun)
middot FX weeklyHeating up(4 Jun)
middot FX weeklySummertime sadness(28 May)
middot FX weeklySpecial counsel lessens Trumpbulence while OPEC looms(21 May)
middot FX weeklyAre China worries old hat(14 May)
middot FX weeklyInflation weekhellip(7 May)
Andreas Steno LarsenChief Global FXFI Strategistandreasstenolarsennordeacom+45 55 46 72 29
Martin EnlundGlobal Chief FX StrategistMartinEnlundnordeacom
e-marketsnordeacomarticle67382fx-weekly-a-fast-lane-to-taper-before-the-fed
httpsresearchnordeacomFICC
Chart 7 Foreigners are still 15 stddev short in NOK
Previous FX weeklies
FX weekly Breathe easy (15 Aug)
FX weekly Debt ceiling liquidity trade (8 Aug)
FX weekly Bullard is right (1 Aug)
FX weekly The crisis over (25 July)
FX weekly The QT road-map (18 July)
FX weekly The liquidity rollercoaster (11 July)
FX weekly Bidens regime shift (04 July)
FX weekly The moratorium (27 June)
FX weekly Run for the hills Powell (20 June)
FX weekly Regime shift (13 June)
FX weekly Boomers aint coming back (06 June)
FX weekly Woke Fed to taper (30 May)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle67382fx-weekly-a-fast-lane-to-taper-before-the-fed
FX weekly The one on USD liquidity (23 May)
FX weekly Oprahnomics revisited (16 May)
FX weekly You det a dog(e) (09 May)
FX weekly Powell is right (02 May)
FX weekly Time to strike back on Biden (25 Apr)
FX weekly Who cares about headlines (18 Apr)
FX weekly Nord-stream 2 (11 Apr)
FX weekly Nothing else matters (28 Mar)
FX weekly 20 stronger USD (21 Mar)
FX weekly Time for JPowws taper tantrum (14 Mar)
FX weekly Is it just us or is it getting crazier out there (07 Mar)
FX weekly Bye bye reflation (28 Feb)
FX weekly Enough USD liquidity to keep us running at fumes (21 Feb)
FX weekly Roses are red violets are blue (14 Feb)
FX weekly Blanchard and overheating risks (7 Feb)
FX weekly The week the game was stopped (31 Jan)
FX weekly China Joe vs Mango Mussolini (24 Jan)
FX weekly Another one Bidens the dust (17 Jan)
FX weekly Peak bullishness (10 Jan)
FX weekly The year of the Ox (03 Jan)
FX weekly How will consensus be wrongfooted in 2021 (20 Dec)
FX weekly There are decades where nothing happens (13 Dec)
FX weekly Globalization back on the menu (6 Dec)
FX weekly Letrsquos hope that money printers are running on windmills (29 Nov)
FX weekly Mnuchin right or wrong (22 Nov)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle67382fx-weekly-a-fast-lane-to-taper-before-the-fed
FX weekly Politics is like sausages you dont want to watch either being made (15 Nov)
FX weekly Biden is not that reflationary (08 Nov)
FX weekly Are markets dumb or not (01 Nov)
FX weekly Lockdowners on Parade (25 Oct)
FX weekly Buy Green before Lagarde(18 Oct)
FX weekly The one on MMT (11 Oct)
FX weekly Corona Trump (04 Oct)
FX weekly Grin and Barrett (27 Sep)
FX weekly AIT is maybe not as dovish as we thought (20 Sep)
FX weekly AIT means easier financial conditions (13 Sep)
FX weekly Good luck Powell (23 Aug)
middotFX weekly USD to be put in the Jackson Hole (16 Aug)
middotFX weekly Peoples QE (09 Aug)
middotFX weekly USD will remain the No1 reserve currency (02 Aug)
middotFX weekly Kanye vs Trump vs Biden (05 Jul)
middotFX weekly Europe vs US 1-0 (28 Jun)
middotFX weekly Should we fear a second lock-down (21 Jun)
middotFX weekly USD liquidity is not going to be as ample (14 Jun)
middotFX weekly EURphoria and panic-YCC (07 Jun)
middotFX weekly An EU solution to a EUR problem (31 May)
middotFX weekly Time to buy a EUR lottery ticket (24 May)
middotFX weekly The trade deal was always born to die (17 May)
middotFX weekly How to trade NIRP coming to America (10 May)
middotFX weekly The rise of the Virolocracy (03 May)
middotFX weekly The EUR-tyranny of the minority (27 Apr)
middotFX weekly How to glue together the EUR-ship again (20 Apr)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle67382fx-weekly-a-fast-lane-to-taper-before-the-fed
middotFX weekly The flipside of Oprahnomics(13 Apr)
middotFX weekly USD needs to weaken or else Plaza Accord 20 is likely (06 Apr)
middotFX weekly Spraying the world with money instead of with disinfectant (29 Mar)
middotFX weekly There will be a crisis and new instruments will be created (22 Mar)
middotFX weekly Sweden and UK are the odd ones out (15 Mar)
middotFX weekly A big bucket of bummerballs (08 Mar)
middotFX weekly A preppers guide to trading Corona (01 Mar)
middotFX weekly Get ready for YCC (23 Feb)
middotFX weekly Mini Mike and the Mechanics (16 Feb)
middotFX weekly Feds balance sheet may need to grow more (09 Feb)
middotFX weekly Did the Virus originate in Norway (02 Feb)
middotFX weekly Mnuchin to trick Fed into more POMO (26 Jan)
middotFX weekly A green bubble to save the world (19 Jan)
middotFX weekly Bad news for NIRP-haters (12 Jan)
middotFX weekly Coupon-bearing securities smell of QE4 (05 Jan)
middotFX weekly The Riksbank is not a leading indicator of the ECB (22 Dec)
middotFX weekly Merry Christmas from the POTUS (15 Dec)
middotFX weekly Why this is not 20152016 all over again (08 Dec)
middotFX weekly Waiting for Godot (01 Dec)
middotFX weekly Get ready for Climate QE 2 (24 Nov)
middotFX weekly FX space yet to corroborate the reflationistas (17 Nov)
middotFX weekly Dont extrapolate the 60 Bs (10 Nov)
middotFX weekly 99 problems but the NOK aint one (3 Nov)
middotFX weekly Something big just happened (27 Oct)
middotFX weekly The QE train to nowhere (20 Oct)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle67382fx-weekly-a-fast-lane-to-taper-before-the-fed
middotFX weekly The 50 Brsquos caused the downturn so what about the 60 Brsquos (13 Oct)
middotFX weekly Is everything falling apart (6 Oct)
middotFX weekly A new path for USD liquidity (29 Sep)
middotFX weekly Soft QE in October (22 Sep)
middotFX weekly Welcome to the birthday party (15 Sep)
middotFX weekly An early santa rally (08 Sep)
middotFX weekly Can you smell the Sushi yet (01 Sep)
middotFX weekly Mo taris mo cuts but whorsquos Sho Nu (25 Aug)
middotFX weekly First havens then sell confetti (18 Aug)
middotFX weekly The liquidity doom loop (11 Aug)
middotFX weekly Buy Treasuries Short Scandis Wear Diamonds (04 Aug)
middotFX weekly Lagarde better practice her Rhine dancing (28 Jul)
middotFX weekly Go big or go home (21 Jul)
middotFX weekly The liquidity plot thickens (14 Jul)
middotFX weekly e-scooters are silly (07Jul)
middotFX weekly One is exausted the other is nuts(30 Jun)
middotFX weekly Time to bring in Steven Seagal 2 (23 Jun)
middotFX weekly Get ready for climate QE (16 Jun)
middotFX weekly Cut cut cut cut (09 Jun)
middotFX weekly The absolute madman (02 Jun)
middotFX weekly Will Xi be Nikithared (26 May)
middotFX weekly Trade war ping pong (19 May)
middotFX weekly A stairway to heaven for Krona shorts (12 May)
middotFX weekly Mnuchin to bail-out Fed (05 May)
middotFX weekly 3 reasons why the USD has been resurgent (28 Apr)
middotFX weekly No doomsday (yet) (21 Apr)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle67382fx-weekly-a-fast-lane-to-taper-before-the-fed
middotFX weekly In EUR we trust (14 Apr)
middotFX weekly Crouching Tiger Hidden Inflation Dragon (07 Apr)
middotFX weekly There is a smell of 2016 in the air (31 Mar)
middotFX weekly Dear Mr Powell (24 Mar)
middotFX weekly The devils advocate (17 Mar)
middotFX weekly Mario Bla-blaghi (10 Mar)
middotFX weekly Chinese reflation (3 Mar)
middotFX weekly QT cannot run forever (24 Feb)
middotFX weekly The USD is now in Trumps hands (17 Feb)
middotFX weekly Time to care about Euro area politics again (10 Feb)
middotFX weekly Is Powell turning into a MAGA-man (03 Feb)
middotFX weekly On climate angst and fake news (27 Jan)
middotFX weekly The Mnuchin bailout (20 Jan)
middotFX weekly FX weekly Cause Im a flip-flopper yes I am (13 Jan)
middotFX weekly FX weekly Treasury vs Fed (06 Jan)
middotFX weekly Top 4 FXMM trades for Q1-2019 (01 Jan)
middotFX weekly On liquidity witches and warlocks (23 Dec)
middotFX weekly Qui Navance pas recule (16 Dec)
middotFX weekly Burnin down the house (9 Dec)
middotFX weekly In Gut we Trust (2 Dec)
middotFX weekly Pikachu aint no hobbit (25 Nov)
middotFX weekly Powell pondering pausing (18 Nov)
middotFX weekly Another SOMA-test of 113 (11 Nov)
middotFX weekly 113 will hold unless the Republicans keep both chambers (04 Nov)
middotFX weekly HIA SOMA and REBA-days (28 Oct)
middotFX weekly The debt ceiling is a USD ceiling (21 Oct)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle67382fx-weekly-a-fast-lane-to-taper-before-the-fed
middotFX weekly Volatility makes odd bedfellows (14 Oct)
middotFX weekly No Di-Maionnaise for your EURs (yet) (7 Oct)
middotFX weekly Along came year-end (30 Sep)
middotFX weekly Twin deficit scare 2 (23 Sep)
middotFX weekly The Pope of Nope has spoken (16 Sep)
middotFX weekly Who wants to impeach a +60 ISM president (09 Sep)
middotFX weekly It is time to go long Scandis again (02 Sep)
middotFX weekly The Conte-Trump alliance (26 Aug)
middotFX weekly Fat-burning shorts (19 Aug)
middotFX weekly Time to call in Steven Seagal(12 Aug)
middotFX weekly Is the cyclical momentum over-priced (05 Aug)
middotFX weekly How to trade a cease-fire (29 Jul)
middotFX weekly Whats that curve (22 Jul)
middotFX weekly The China Factor (15 Jul)
middotFX weekly Take a short trade war breather (08 Jul)
middotFX weekly Trump will never 238 (01 Jul)
middotFX weekly The USD is the best carry currency in the world (24 Jun)
middotFX weekly Dollar to provide headwinds for earning estimates (17 Jun)
middotFX weekly Fire and fury risks for the USD (10 Jun)
middotFX weekly Its not only Italy (03 Jun)
middotFX weekly The Sumo SOMA days (27 May)
middotFX weekly EM wont be sprinting if the Fed is unprinting (20 May)
middotFX weekly The two final nails in the dovish FOMC-con (13 May)
middotFX weekly Is there anything left in the USD bull-run (06 May)
middotFX weekly Dragon Energy (29 Apr)
middotFX weekly Relative curvature is the new king of FX (22 Apr)
middotFX weekly Why is EURUSD not trading lower (15 Apr)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle67382fx-weekly-a-fast-lane-to-taper-before-the-fed
middotFX weekly Like watching paint dry they said (08 Apr)
middotFX weekly The list of potential USD-positives is getting longer (01 Apr)
middotFX weekly 2 reasons why EURUSD has decoupled from rates spreads (25 Mar)
middotFX weekly Time to buy a USD lottery ticket (18 Mar)
middotFX weekly Taxation mirror on the wall who is the fairest of them all (11 Mar)
middotFX weekly Trumps game of chicken (04 Mar)
middotFX weekly Will the market neglect the clutch of canaries (25 Feb)
middotFX weekly Is the correlation break-down driven by FX hedges (18 Feb)
middotFX weekly The liquidity tide is ebbing (11 Feb)
middotFX weekly Hawkish spectacles (04 Feb)
middotFX weekly Who will stop EURUSD from moving higher (28 Jan)
middotFX weekly Did the Democrats dent the Dollar (21 Jan)
middotFX weekly Is 125 the new 120 (14 Jan)
middotFX weekly The euphoria rises (07 Jan)
middotFX weekly Paging Dr Pangloss (01 Jan)
middotFX weekly The R-star of Bethlehem (24 Dec)
middotFX weekly A numbers game (17 Dec)
middotFX weekly The year-end liquidty shrink (10 Dec)
middotFX weekly Three reasons why EURUSD isnt trading lower (03 Dec)
middotFX weekly Which currencies to sell if the housing downturn continues (26 Nov)
middotFX weekly The global industrial cycle is set to weaken (19 Nov)
middotFX weekly Is high-yield a canary in the global coal mine (12 Nov)
middotFX weekly Is this the end of the inflation convergence trade in EURUSD (5 Nov)
middotFX weekly Was that it for the EUR bulls (29 Oct)
middotFX weekly Hawks in opposition doves in charge (22 Oct)
middot FX weeklyContinued convergence or re-divergence(15 Oct)
middotFX weekly Thingsdont matter until they do(08 Oct)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle67382fx-weekly-a-fast-lane-to-taper-before-the-fed
middotFX weekly October seasonality is strong (01 Oct)
middotFX weekly ldquoIs 120 the new 115rdquo(24 Sep)
middot FX weekly Honey I shrunk the balance sheet(17 Sep)
middot FX weekly ldquoUSD liquidity will turn scarcer but whenrdquo (10 Sep)
middot FX weekly ldquoStrong currencies and inflationrdquo(3 Sep)
middot FX weekly ldquoUSD in the (Jackson) holerdquo (27 Aug)
middot FX weekly ldquoQ4 is the USD quarterrdquo(20 Aug)
middot FX weekly ldquoIn the year 2525rdquo(13 Aug)
middot FX weekly ldquoEURUSD ceiling or debt ceilingrdquo(6 Aug)
middot FX weeklyldquoElevator up stairs down ldquo(30 Jul)
middot FX weeklyTrump ldquospicesrdquo up EURUSD(23 Jul)
middot FX weeklyFlip-flop(16 Jul)
middot FX weeklyConsolidation time(9 Jul)
middot FX weeklyHawks R Us(2 Jul)
middot FX weeklyAnother lowflation week(25 Jun)
middot FX weeklyNo Fed put(18 Jun)
middot FX weeklyA bouncy dollar(11 Jun)
middot FX weeklyHeating up(4 Jun)
middot FX weeklySummertime sadness(28 May)
middot FX weeklySpecial counsel lessens Trumpbulence while OPEC looms(21 May)
middot FX weeklyAre China worries old hat(14 May)
middot FX weeklyInflation weekhellip(7 May)
Andreas Steno LarsenChief Global FXFI Strategistandreasstenolarsennordeacom+45 55 46 72 29
Martin EnlundGlobal Chief FX StrategistMartinEnlundnordeacom
e-marketsnordeacomarticle67382fx-weekly-a-fast-lane-to-taper-before-the-fed
httpsresearchnordeacomFICC
FX weekly The one on USD liquidity (23 May)
FX weekly Oprahnomics revisited (16 May)
FX weekly You det a dog(e) (09 May)
FX weekly Powell is right (02 May)
FX weekly Time to strike back on Biden (25 Apr)
FX weekly Who cares about headlines (18 Apr)
FX weekly Nord-stream 2 (11 Apr)
FX weekly Nothing else matters (28 Mar)
FX weekly 20 stronger USD (21 Mar)
FX weekly Time for JPowws taper tantrum (14 Mar)
FX weekly Is it just us or is it getting crazier out there (07 Mar)
FX weekly Bye bye reflation (28 Feb)
FX weekly Enough USD liquidity to keep us running at fumes (21 Feb)
FX weekly Roses are red violets are blue (14 Feb)
FX weekly Blanchard and overheating risks (7 Feb)
FX weekly The week the game was stopped (31 Jan)
FX weekly China Joe vs Mango Mussolini (24 Jan)
FX weekly Another one Bidens the dust (17 Jan)
FX weekly Peak bullishness (10 Jan)
FX weekly The year of the Ox (03 Jan)
FX weekly How will consensus be wrongfooted in 2021 (20 Dec)
FX weekly There are decades where nothing happens (13 Dec)
FX weekly Globalization back on the menu (6 Dec)
FX weekly Letrsquos hope that money printers are running on windmills (29 Nov)
FX weekly Mnuchin right or wrong (22 Nov)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle67382fx-weekly-a-fast-lane-to-taper-before-the-fed
FX weekly Politics is like sausages you dont want to watch either being made (15 Nov)
FX weekly Biden is not that reflationary (08 Nov)
FX weekly Are markets dumb or not (01 Nov)
FX weekly Lockdowners on Parade (25 Oct)
FX weekly Buy Green before Lagarde(18 Oct)
FX weekly The one on MMT (11 Oct)
FX weekly Corona Trump (04 Oct)
FX weekly Grin and Barrett (27 Sep)
FX weekly AIT is maybe not as dovish as we thought (20 Sep)
FX weekly AIT means easier financial conditions (13 Sep)
FX weekly Good luck Powell (23 Aug)
middotFX weekly USD to be put in the Jackson Hole (16 Aug)
middotFX weekly Peoples QE (09 Aug)
middotFX weekly USD will remain the No1 reserve currency (02 Aug)
middotFX weekly Kanye vs Trump vs Biden (05 Jul)
middotFX weekly Europe vs US 1-0 (28 Jun)
middotFX weekly Should we fear a second lock-down (21 Jun)
middotFX weekly USD liquidity is not going to be as ample (14 Jun)
middotFX weekly EURphoria and panic-YCC (07 Jun)
middotFX weekly An EU solution to a EUR problem (31 May)
middotFX weekly Time to buy a EUR lottery ticket (24 May)
middotFX weekly The trade deal was always born to die (17 May)
middotFX weekly How to trade NIRP coming to America (10 May)
middotFX weekly The rise of the Virolocracy (03 May)
middotFX weekly The EUR-tyranny of the minority (27 Apr)
middotFX weekly How to glue together the EUR-ship again (20 Apr)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle67382fx-weekly-a-fast-lane-to-taper-before-the-fed
middotFX weekly The flipside of Oprahnomics(13 Apr)
middotFX weekly USD needs to weaken or else Plaza Accord 20 is likely (06 Apr)
middotFX weekly Spraying the world with money instead of with disinfectant (29 Mar)
middotFX weekly There will be a crisis and new instruments will be created (22 Mar)
middotFX weekly Sweden and UK are the odd ones out (15 Mar)
middotFX weekly A big bucket of bummerballs (08 Mar)
middotFX weekly A preppers guide to trading Corona (01 Mar)
middotFX weekly Get ready for YCC (23 Feb)
middotFX weekly Mini Mike and the Mechanics (16 Feb)
middotFX weekly Feds balance sheet may need to grow more (09 Feb)
middotFX weekly Did the Virus originate in Norway (02 Feb)
middotFX weekly Mnuchin to trick Fed into more POMO (26 Jan)
middotFX weekly A green bubble to save the world (19 Jan)
middotFX weekly Bad news for NIRP-haters (12 Jan)
middotFX weekly Coupon-bearing securities smell of QE4 (05 Jan)
middotFX weekly The Riksbank is not a leading indicator of the ECB (22 Dec)
middotFX weekly Merry Christmas from the POTUS (15 Dec)
middotFX weekly Why this is not 20152016 all over again (08 Dec)
middotFX weekly Waiting for Godot (01 Dec)
middotFX weekly Get ready for Climate QE 2 (24 Nov)
middotFX weekly FX space yet to corroborate the reflationistas (17 Nov)
middotFX weekly Dont extrapolate the 60 Bs (10 Nov)
middotFX weekly 99 problems but the NOK aint one (3 Nov)
middotFX weekly Something big just happened (27 Oct)
middotFX weekly The QE train to nowhere (20 Oct)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle67382fx-weekly-a-fast-lane-to-taper-before-the-fed
middotFX weekly The 50 Brsquos caused the downturn so what about the 60 Brsquos (13 Oct)
middotFX weekly Is everything falling apart (6 Oct)
middotFX weekly A new path for USD liquidity (29 Sep)
middotFX weekly Soft QE in October (22 Sep)
middotFX weekly Welcome to the birthday party (15 Sep)
middotFX weekly An early santa rally (08 Sep)
middotFX weekly Can you smell the Sushi yet (01 Sep)
middotFX weekly Mo taris mo cuts but whorsquos Sho Nu (25 Aug)
middotFX weekly First havens then sell confetti (18 Aug)
middotFX weekly The liquidity doom loop (11 Aug)
middotFX weekly Buy Treasuries Short Scandis Wear Diamonds (04 Aug)
middotFX weekly Lagarde better practice her Rhine dancing (28 Jul)
middotFX weekly Go big or go home (21 Jul)
middotFX weekly The liquidity plot thickens (14 Jul)
middotFX weekly e-scooters are silly (07Jul)
middotFX weekly One is exausted the other is nuts(30 Jun)
middotFX weekly Time to bring in Steven Seagal 2 (23 Jun)
middotFX weekly Get ready for climate QE (16 Jun)
middotFX weekly Cut cut cut cut (09 Jun)
middotFX weekly The absolute madman (02 Jun)
middotFX weekly Will Xi be Nikithared (26 May)
middotFX weekly Trade war ping pong (19 May)
middotFX weekly A stairway to heaven for Krona shorts (12 May)
middotFX weekly Mnuchin to bail-out Fed (05 May)
middotFX weekly 3 reasons why the USD has been resurgent (28 Apr)
middotFX weekly No doomsday (yet) (21 Apr)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle67382fx-weekly-a-fast-lane-to-taper-before-the-fed
middotFX weekly In EUR we trust (14 Apr)
middotFX weekly Crouching Tiger Hidden Inflation Dragon (07 Apr)
middotFX weekly There is a smell of 2016 in the air (31 Mar)
middotFX weekly Dear Mr Powell (24 Mar)
middotFX weekly The devils advocate (17 Mar)
middotFX weekly Mario Bla-blaghi (10 Mar)
middotFX weekly Chinese reflation (3 Mar)
middotFX weekly QT cannot run forever (24 Feb)
middotFX weekly The USD is now in Trumps hands (17 Feb)
middotFX weekly Time to care about Euro area politics again (10 Feb)
middotFX weekly Is Powell turning into a MAGA-man (03 Feb)
middotFX weekly On climate angst and fake news (27 Jan)
middotFX weekly The Mnuchin bailout (20 Jan)
middotFX weekly FX weekly Cause Im a flip-flopper yes I am (13 Jan)
middotFX weekly FX weekly Treasury vs Fed (06 Jan)
middotFX weekly Top 4 FXMM trades for Q1-2019 (01 Jan)
middotFX weekly On liquidity witches and warlocks (23 Dec)
middotFX weekly Qui Navance pas recule (16 Dec)
middotFX weekly Burnin down the house (9 Dec)
middotFX weekly In Gut we Trust (2 Dec)
middotFX weekly Pikachu aint no hobbit (25 Nov)
middotFX weekly Powell pondering pausing (18 Nov)
middotFX weekly Another SOMA-test of 113 (11 Nov)
middotFX weekly 113 will hold unless the Republicans keep both chambers (04 Nov)
middotFX weekly HIA SOMA and REBA-days (28 Oct)
middotFX weekly The debt ceiling is a USD ceiling (21 Oct)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle67382fx-weekly-a-fast-lane-to-taper-before-the-fed
middotFX weekly Volatility makes odd bedfellows (14 Oct)
middotFX weekly No Di-Maionnaise for your EURs (yet) (7 Oct)
middotFX weekly Along came year-end (30 Sep)
middotFX weekly Twin deficit scare 2 (23 Sep)
middotFX weekly The Pope of Nope has spoken (16 Sep)
middotFX weekly Who wants to impeach a +60 ISM president (09 Sep)
middotFX weekly It is time to go long Scandis again (02 Sep)
middotFX weekly The Conte-Trump alliance (26 Aug)
middotFX weekly Fat-burning shorts (19 Aug)
middotFX weekly Time to call in Steven Seagal(12 Aug)
middotFX weekly Is the cyclical momentum over-priced (05 Aug)
middotFX weekly How to trade a cease-fire (29 Jul)
middotFX weekly Whats that curve (22 Jul)
middotFX weekly The China Factor (15 Jul)
middotFX weekly Take a short trade war breather (08 Jul)
middotFX weekly Trump will never 238 (01 Jul)
middotFX weekly The USD is the best carry currency in the world (24 Jun)
middotFX weekly Dollar to provide headwinds for earning estimates (17 Jun)
middotFX weekly Fire and fury risks for the USD (10 Jun)
middotFX weekly Its not only Italy (03 Jun)
middotFX weekly The Sumo SOMA days (27 May)
middotFX weekly EM wont be sprinting if the Fed is unprinting (20 May)
middotFX weekly The two final nails in the dovish FOMC-con (13 May)
middotFX weekly Is there anything left in the USD bull-run (06 May)
middotFX weekly Dragon Energy (29 Apr)
middotFX weekly Relative curvature is the new king of FX (22 Apr)
middotFX weekly Why is EURUSD not trading lower (15 Apr)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle67382fx-weekly-a-fast-lane-to-taper-before-the-fed
middotFX weekly Like watching paint dry they said (08 Apr)
middotFX weekly The list of potential USD-positives is getting longer (01 Apr)
middotFX weekly 2 reasons why EURUSD has decoupled from rates spreads (25 Mar)
middotFX weekly Time to buy a USD lottery ticket (18 Mar)
middotFX weekly Taxation mirror on the wall who is the fairest of them all (11 Mar)
middotFX weekly Trumps game of chicken (04 Mar)
middotFX weekly Will the market neglect the clutch of canaries (25 Feb)
middotFX weekly Is the correlation break-down driven by FX hedges (18 Feb)
middotFX weekly The liquidity tide is ebbing (11 Feb)
middotFX weekly Hawkish spectacles (04 Feb)
middotFX weekly Who will stop EURUSD from moving higher (28 Jan)
middotFX weekly Did the Democrats dent the Dollar (21 Jan)
middotFX weekly Is 125 the new 120 (14 Jan)
middotFX weekly The euphoria rises (07 Jan)
middotFX weekly Paging Dr Pangloss (01 Jan)
middotFX weekly The R-star of Bethlehem (24 Dec)
middotFX weekly A numbers game (17 Dec)
middotFX weekly The year-end liquidty shrink (10 Dec)
middotFX weekly Three reasons why EURUSD isnt trading lower (03 Dec)
middotFX weekly Which currencies to sell if the housing downturn continues (26 Nov)
middotFX weekly The global industrial cycle is set to weaken (19 Nov)
middotFX weekly Is high-yield a canary in the global coal mine (12 Nov)
middotFX weekly Is this the end of the inflation convergence trade in EURUSD (5 Nov)
middotFX weekly Was that it for the EUR bulls (29 Oct)
middotFX weekly Hawks in opposition doves in charge (22 Oct)
middot FX weeklyContinued convergence or re-divergence(15 Oct)
middotFX weekly Thingsdont matter until they do(08 Oct)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle67382fx-weekly-a-fast-lane-to-taper-before-the-fed
middotFX weekly October seasonality is strong (01 Oct)
middotFX weekly ldquoIs 120 the new 115rdquo(24 Sep)
middot FX weekly Honey I shrunk the balance sheet(17 Sep)
middot FX weekly ldquoUSD liquidity will turn scarcer but whenrdquo (10 Sep)
middot FX weekly ldquoStrong currencies and inflationrdquo(3 Sep)
middot FX weekly ldquoUSD in the (Jackson) holerdquo (27 Aug)
middot FX weekly ldquoQ4 is the USD quarterrdquo(20 Aug)
middot FX weekly ldquoIn the year 2525rdquo(13 Aug)
middot FX weekly ldquoEURUSD ceiling or debt ceilingrdquo(6 Aug)
middot FX weeklyldquoElevator up stairs down ldquo(30 Jul)
middot FX weeklyTrump ldquospicesrdquo up EURUSD(23 Jul)
middot FX weeklyFlip-flop(16 Jul)
middot FX weeklyConsolidation time(9 Jul)
middot FX weeklyHawks R Us(2 Jul)
middot FX weeklyAnother lowflation week(25 Jun)
middot FX weeklyNo Fed put(18 Jun)
middot FX weeklyA bouncy dollar(11 Jun)
middot FX weeklyHeating up(4 Jun)
middot FX weeklySummertime sadness(28 May)
middot FX weeklySpecial counsel lessens Trumpbulence while OPEC looms(21 May)
middot FX weeklyAre China worries old hat(14 May)
middot FX weeklyInflation weekhellip(7 May)
Andreas Steno LarsenChief Global FXFI Strategistandreasstenolarsennordeacom+45 55 46 72 29
Martin EnlundGlobal Chief FX StrategistMartinEnlundnordeacom
e-marketsnordeacomarticle67382fx-weekly-a-fast-lane-to-taper-before-the-fed
httpsresearchnordeacomFICC
FX weekly Politics is like sausages you dont want to watch either being made (15 Nov)
FX weekly Biden is not that reflationary (08 Nov)
FX weekly Are markets dumb or not (01 Nov)
FX weekly Lockdowners on Parade (25 Oct)
FX weekly Buy Green before Lagarde(18 Oct)
FX weekly The one on MMT (11 Oct)
FX weekly Corona Trump (04 Oct)
FX weekly Grin and Barrett (27 Sep)
FX weekly AIT is maybe not as dovish as we thought (20 Sep)
FX weekly AIT means easier financial conditions (13 Sep)
FX weekly Good luck Powell (23 Aug)
middotFX weekly USD to be put in the Jackson Hole (16 Aug)
middotFX weekly Peoples QE (09 Aug)
middotFX weekly USD will remain the No1 reserve currency (02 Aug)
middotFX weekly Kanye vs Trump vs Biden (05 Jul)
middotFX weekly Europe vs US 1-0 (28 Jun)
middotFX weekly Should we fear a second lock-down (21 Jun)
middotFX weekly USD liquidity is not going to be as ample (14 Jun)
middotFX weekly EURphoria and panic-YCC (07 Jun)
middotFX weekly An EU solution to a EUR problem (31 May)
middotFX weekly Time to buy a EUR lottery ticket (24 May)
middotFX weekly The trade deal was always born to die (17 May)
middotFX weekly How to trade NIRP coming to America (10 May)
middotFX weekly The rise of the Virolocracy (03 May)
middotFX weekly The EUR-tyranny of the minority (27 Apr)
middotFX weekly How to glue together the EUR-ship again (20 Apr)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle67382fx-weekly-a-fast-lane-to-taper-before-the-fed
middotFX weekly The flipside of Oprahnomics(13 Apr)
middotFX weekly USD needs to weaken or else Plaza Accord 20 is likely (06 Apr)
middotFX weekly Spraying the world with money instead of with disinfectant (29 Mar)
middotFX weekly There will be a crisis and new instruments will be created (22 Mar)
middotFX weekly Sweden and UK are the odd ones out (15 Mar)
middotFX weekly A big bucket of bummerballs (08 Mar)
middotFX weekly A preppers guide to trading Corona (01 Mar)
middotFX weekly Get ready for YCC (23 Feb)
middotFX weekly Mini Mike and the Mechanics (16 Feb)
middotFX weekly Feds balance sheet may need to grow more (09 Feb)
middotFX weekly Did the Virus originate in Norway (02 Feb)
middotFX weekly Mnuchin to trick Fed into more POMO (26 Jan)
middotFX weekly A green bubble to save the world (19 Jan)
middotFX weekly Bad news for NIRP-haters (12 Jan)
middotFX weekly Coupon-bearing securities smell of QE4 (05 Jan)
middotFX weekly The Riksbank is not a leading indicator of the ECB (22 Dec)
middotFX weekly Merry Christmas from the POTUS (15 Dec)
middotFX weekly Why this is not 20152016 all over again (08 Dec)
middotFX weekly Waiting for Godot (01 Dec)
middotFX weekly Get ready for Climate QE 2 (24 Nov)
middotFX weekly FX space yet to corroborate the reflationistas (17 Nov)
middotFX weekly Dont extrapolate the 60 Bs (10 Nov)
middotFX weekly 99 problems but the NOK aint one (3 Nov)
middotFX weekly Something big just happened (27 Oct)
middotFX weekly The QE train to nowhere (20 Oct)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle67382fx-weekly-a-fast-lane-to-taper-before-the-fed
middotFX weekly The 50 Brsquos caused the downturn so what about the 60 Brsquos (13 Oct)
middotFX weekly Is everything falling apart (6 Oct)
middotFX weekly A new path for USD liquidity (29 Sep)
middotFX weekly Soft QE in October (22 Sep)
middotFX weekly Welcome to the birthday party (15 Sep)
middotFX weekly An early santa rally (08 Sep)
middotFX weekly Can you smell the Sushi yet (01 Sep)
middotFX weekly Mo taris mo cuts but whorsquos Sho Nu (25 Aug)
middotFX weekly First havens then sell confetti (18 Aug)
middotFX weekly The liquidity doom loop (11 Aug)
middotFX weekly Buy Treasuries Short Scandis Wear Diamonds (04 Aug)
middotFX weekly Lagarde better practice her Rhine dancing (28 Jul)
middotFX weekly Go big or go home (21 Jul)
middotFX weekly The liquidity plot thickens (14 Jul)
middotFX weekly e-scooters are silly (07Jul)
middotFX weekly One is exausted the other is nuts(30 Jun)
middotFX weekly Time to bring in Steven Seagal 2 (23 Jun)
middotFX weekly Get ready for climate QE (16 Jun)
middotFX weekly Cut cut cut cut (09 Jun)
middotFX weekly The absolute madman (02 Jun)
middotFX weekly Will Xi be Nikithared (26 May)
middotFX weekly Trade war ping pong (19 May)
middotFX weekly A stairway to heaven for Krona shorts (12 May)
middotFX weekly Mnuchin to bail-out Fed (05 May)
middotFX weekly 3 reasons why the USD has been resurgent (28 Apr)
middotFX weekly No doomsday (yet) (21 Apr)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle67382fx-weekly-a-fast-lane-to-taper-before-the-fed
middotFX weekly In EUR we trust (14 Apr)
middotFX weekly Crouching Tiger Hidden Inflation Dragon (07 Apr)
middotFX weekly There is a smell of 2016 in the air (31 Mar)
middotFX weekly Dear Mr Powell (24 Mar)
middotFX weekly The devils advocate (17 Mar)
middotFX weekly Mario Bla-blaghi (10 Mar)
middotFX weekly Chinese reflation (3 Mar)
middotFX weekly QT cannot run forever (24 Feb)
middotFX weekly The USD is now in Trumps hands (17 Feb)
middotFX weekly Time to care about Euro area politics again (10 Feb)
middotFX weekly Is Powell turning into a MAGA-man (03 Feb)
middotFX weekly On climate angst and fake news (27 Jan)
middotFX weekly The Mnuchin bailout (20 Jan)
middotFX weekly FX weekly Cause Im a flip-flopper yes I am (13 Jan)
middotFX weekly FX weekly Treasury vs Fed (06 Jan)
middotFX weekly Top 4 FXMM trades for Q1-2019 (01 Jan)
middotFX weekly On liquidity witches and warlocks (23 Dec)
middotFX weekly Qui Navance pas recule (16 Dec)
middotFX weekly Burnin down the house (9 Dec)
middotFX weekly In Gut we Trust (2 Dec)
middotFX weekly Pikachu aint no hobbit (25 Nov)
middotFX weekly Powell pondering pausing (18 Nov)
middotFX weekly Another SOMA-test of 113 (11 Nov)
middotFX weekly 113 will hold unless the Republicans keep both chambers (04 Nov)
middotFX weekly HIA SOMA and REBA-days (28 Oct)
middotFX weekly The debt ceiling is a USD ceiling (21 Oct)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle67382fx-weekly-a-fast-lane-to-taper-before-the-fed
middotFX weekly Volatility makes odd bedfellows (14 Oct)
middotFX weekly No Di-Maionnaise for your EURs (yet) (7 Oct)
middotFX weekly Along came year-end (30 Sep)
middotFX weekly Twin deficit scare 2 (23 Sep)
middotFX weekly The Pope of Nope has spoken (16 Sep)
middotFX weekly Who wants to impeach a +60 ISM president (09 Sep)
middotFX weekly It is time to go long Scandis again (02 Sep)
middotFX weekly The Conte-Trump alliance (26 Aug)
middotFX weekly Fat-burning shorts (19 Aug)
middotFX weekly Time to call in Steven Seagal(12 Aug)
middotFX weekly Is the cyclical momentum over-priced (05 Aug)
middotFX weekly How to trade a cease-fire (29 Jul)
middotFX weekly Whats that curve (22 Jul)
middotFX weekly The China Factor (15 Jul)
middotFX weekly Take a short trade war breather (08 Jul)
middotFX weekly Trump will never 238 (01 Jul)
middotFX weekly The USD is the best carry currency in the world (24 Jun)
middotFX weekly Dollar to provide headwinds for earning estimates (17 Jun)
middotFX weekly Fire and fury risks for the USD (10 Jun)
middotFX weekly Its not only Italy (03 Jun)
middotFX weekly The Sumo SOMA days (27 May)
middotFX weekly EM wont be sprinting if the Fed is unprinting (20 May)
middotFX weekly The two final nails in the dovish FOMC-con (13 May)
middotFX weekly Is there anything left in the USD bull-run (06 May)
middotFX weekly Dragon Energy (29 Apr)
middotFX weekly Relative curvature is the new king of FX (22 Apr)
middotFX weekly Why is EURUSD not trading lower (15 Apr)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle67382fx-weekly-a-fast-lane-to-taper-before-the-fed
middotFX weekly Like watching paint dry they said (08 Apr)
middotFX weekly The list of potential USD-positives is getting longer (01 Apr)
middotFX weekly 2 reasons why EURUSD has decoupled from rates spreads (25 Mar)
middotFX weekly Time to buy a USD lottery ticket (18 Mar)
middotFX weekly Taxation mirror on the wall who is the fairest of them all (11 Mar)
middotFX weekly Trumps game of chicken (04 Mar)
middotFX weekly Will the market neglect the clutch of canaries (25 Feb)
middotFX weekly Is the correlation break-down driven by FX hedges (18 Feb)
middotFX weekly The liquidity tide is ebbing (11 Feb)
middotFX weekly Hawkish spectacles (04 Feb)
middotFX weekly Who will stop EURUSD from moving higher (28 Jan)
middotFX weekly Did the Democrats dent the Dollar (21 Jan)
middotFX weekly Is 125 the new 120 (14 Jan)
middotFX weekly The euphoria rises (07 Jan)
middotFX weekly Paging Dr Pangloss (01 Jan)
middotFX weekly The R-star of Bethlehem (24 Dec)
middotFX weekly A numbers game (17 Dec)
middotFX weekly The year-end liquidty shrink (10 Dec)
middotFX weekly Three reasons why EURUSD isnt trading lower (03 Dec)
middotFX weekly Which currencies to sell if the housing downturn continues (26 Nov)
middotFX weekly The global industrial cycle is set to weaken (19 Nov)
middotFX weekly Is high-yield a canary in the global coal mine (12 Nov)
middotFX weekly Is this the end of the inflation convergence trade in EURUSD (5 Nov)
middotFX weekly Was that it for the EUR bulls (29 Oct)
middotFX weekly Hawks in opposition doves in charge (22 Oct)
middot FX weeklyContinued convergence or re-divergence(15 Oct)
middotFX weekly Thingsdont matter until they do(08 Oct)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle67382fx-weekly-a-fast-lane-to-taper-before-the-fed
middotFX weekly October seasonality is strong (01 Oct)
middotFX weekly ldquoIs 120 the new 115rdquo(24 Sep)
middot FX weekly Honey I shrunk the balance sheet(17 Sep)
middot FX weekly ldquoUSD liquidity will turn scarcer but whenrdquo (10 Sep)
middot FX weekly ldquoStrong currencies and inflationrdquo(3 Sep)
middot FX weekly ldquoUSD in the (Jackson) holerdquo (27 Aug)
middot FX weekly ldquoQ4 is the USD quarterrdquo(20 Aug)
middot FX weekly ldquoIn the year 2525rdquo(13 Aug)
middot FX weekly ldquoEURUSD ceiling or debt ceilingrdquo(6 Aug)
middot FX weeklyldquoElevator up stairs down ldquo(30 Jul)
middot FX weeklyTrump ldquospicesrdquo up EURUSD(23 Jul)
middot FX weeklyFlip-flop(16 Jul)
middot FX weeklyConsolidation time(9 Jul)
middot FX weeklyHawks R Us(2 Jul)
middot FX weeklyAnother lowflation week(25 Jun)
middot FX weeklyNo Fed put(18 Jun)
middot FX weeklyA bouncy dollar(11 Jun)
middot FX weeklyHeating up(4 Jun)
middot FX weeklySummertime sadness(28 May)
middot FX weeklySpecial counsel lessens Trumpbulence while OPEC looms(21 May)
middot FX weeklyAre China worries old hat(14 May)
middot FX weeklyInflation weekhellip(7 May)
Andreas Steno LarsenChief Global FXFI Strategistandreasstenolarsennordeacom+45 55 46 72 29
Martin EnlundGlobal Chief FX StrategistMartinEnlundnordeacom
e-marketsnordeacomarticle67382fx-weekly-a-fast-lane-to-taper-before-the-fed
httpsresearchnordeacomFICC
middotFX weekly The flipside of Oprahnomics(13 Apr)
middotFX weekly USD needs to weaken or else Plaza Accord 20 is likely (06 Apr)
middotFX weekly Spraying the world with money instead of with disinfectant (29 Mar)
middotFX weekly There will be a crisis and new instruments will be created (22 Mar)
middotFX weekly Sweden and UK are the odd ones out (15 Mar)
middotFX weekly A big bucket of bummerballs (08 Mar)
middotFX weekly A preppers guide to trading Corona (01 Mar)
middotFX weekly Get ready for YCC (23 Feb)
middotFX weekly Mini Mike and the Mechanics (16 Feb)
middotFX weekly Feds balance sheet may need to grow more (09 Feb)
middotFX weekly Did the Virus originate in Norway (02 Feb)
middotFX weekly Mnuchin to trick Fed into more POMO (26 Jan)
middotFX weekly A green bubble to save the world (19 Jan)
middotFX weekly Bad news for NIRP-haters (12 Jan)
middotFX weekly Coupon-bearing securities smell of QE4 (05 Jan)
middotFX weekly The Riksbank is not a leading indicator of the ECB (22 Dec)
middotFX weekly Merry Christmas from the POTUS (15 Dec)
middotFX weekly Why this is not 20152016 all over again (08 Dec)
middotFX weekly Waiting for Godot (01 Dec)
middotFX weekly Get ready for Climate QE 2 (24 Nov)
middotFX weekly FX space yet to corroborate the reflationistas (17 Nov)
middotFX weekly Dont extrapolate the 60 Bs (10 Nov)
middotFX weekly 99 problems but the NOK aint one (3 Nov)
middotFX weekly Something big just happened (27 Oct)
middotFX weekly The QE train to nowhere (20 Oct)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle67382fx-weekly-a-fast-lane-to-taper-before-the-fed
middotFX weekly The 50 Brsquos caused the downturn so what about the 60 Brsquos (13 Oct)
middotFX weekly Is everything falling apart (6 Oct)
middotFX weekly A new path for USD liquidity (29 Sep)
middotFX weekly Soft QE in October (22 Sep)
middotFX weekly Welcome to the birthday party (15 Sep)
middotFX weekly An early santa rally (08 Sep)
middotFX weekly Can you smell the Sushi yet (01 Sep)
middotFX weekly Mo taris mo cuts but whorsquos Sho Nu (25 Aug)
middotFX weekly First havens then sell confetti (18 Aug)
middotFX weekly The liquidity doom loop (11 Aug)
middotFX weekly Buy Treasuries Short Scandis Wear Diamonds (04 Aug)
middotFX weekly Lagarde better practice her Rhine dancing (28 Jul)
middotFX weekly Go big or go home (21 Jul)
middotFX weekly The liquidity plot thickens (14 Jul)
middotFX weekly e-scooters are silly (07Jul)
middotFX weekly One is exausted the other is nuts(30 Jun)
middotFX weekly Time to bring in Steven Seagal 2 (23 Jun)
middotFX weekly Get ready for climate QE (16 Jun)
middotFX weekly Cut cut cut cut (09 Jun)
middotFX weekly The absolute madman (02 Jun)
middotFX weekly Will Xi be Nikithared (26 May)
middotFX weekly Trade war ping pong (19 May)
middotFX weekly A stairway to heaven for Krona shorts (12 May)
middotFX weekly Mnuchin to bail-out Fed (05 May)
middotFX weekly 3 reasons why the USD has been resurgent (28 Apr)
middotFX weekly No doomsday (yet) (21 Apr)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle67382fx-weekly-a-fast-lane-to-taper-before-the-fed
middotFX weekly In EUR we trust (14 Apr)
middotFX weekly Crouching Tiger Hidden Inflation Dragon (07 Apr)
middotFX weekly There is a smell of 2016 in the air (31 Mar)
middotFX weekly Dear Mr Powell (24 Mar)
middotFX weekly The devils advocate (17 Mar)
middotFX weekly Mario Bla-blaghi (10 Mar)
middotFX weekly Chinese reflation (3 Mar)
middotFX weekly QT cannot run forever (24 Feb)
middotFX weekly The USD is now in Trumps hands (17 Feb)
middotFX weekly Time to care about Euro area politics again (10 Feb)
middotFX weekly Is Powell turning into a MAGA-man (03 Feb)
middotFX weekly On climate angst and fake news (27 Jan)
middotFX weekly The Mnuchin bailout (20 Jan)
middotFX weekly FX weekly Cause Im a flip-flopper yes I am (13 Jan)
middotFX weekly FX weekly Treasury vs Fed (06 Jan)
middotFX weekly Top 4 FXMM trades for Q1-2019 (01 Jan)
middotFX weekly On liquidity witches and warlocks (23 Dec)
middotFX weekly Qui Navance pas recule (16 Dec)
middotFX weekly Burnin down the house (9 Dec)
middotFX weekly In Gut we Trust (2 Dec)
middotFX weekly Pikachu aint no hobbit (25 Nov)
middotFX weekly Powell pondering pausing (18 Nov)
middotFX weekly Another SOMA-test of 113 (11 Nov)
middotFX weekly 113 will hold unless the Republicans keep both chambers (04 Nov)
middotFX weekly HIA SOMA and REBA-days (28 Oct)
middotFX weekly The debt ceiling is a USD ceiling (21 Oct)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle67382fx-weekly-a-fast-lane-to-taper-before-the-fed
middotFX weekly Volatility makes odd bedfellows (14 Oct)
middotFX weekly No Di-Maionnaise for your EURs (yet) (7 Oct)
middotFX weekly Along came year-end (30 Sep)
middotFX weekly Twin deficit scare 2 (23 Sep)
middotFX weekly The Pope of Nope has spoken (16 Sep)
middotFX weekly Who wants to impeach a +60 ISM president (09 Sep)
middotFX weekly It is time to go long Scandis again (02 Sep)
middotFX weekly The Conte-Trump alliance (26 Aug)
middotFX weekly Fat-burning shorts (19 Aug)
middotFX weekly Time to call in Steven Seagal(12 Aug)
middotFX weekly Is the cyclical momentum over-priced (05 Aug)
middotFX weekly How to trade a cease-fire (29 Jul)
middotFX weekly Whats that curve (22 Jul)
middotFX weekly The China Factor (15 Jul)
middotFX weekly Take a short trade war breather (08 Jul)
middotFX weekly Trump will never 238 (01 Jul)
middotFX weekly The USD is the best carry currency in the world (24 Jun)
middotFX weekly Dollar to provide headwinds for earning estimates (17 Jun)
middotFX weekly Fire and fury risks for the USD (10 Jun)
middotFX weekly Its not only Italy (03 Jun)
middotFX weekly The Sumo SOMA days (27 May)
middotFX weekly EM wont be sprinting if the Fed is unprinting (20 May)
middotFX weekly The two final nails in the dovish FOMC-con (13 May)
middotFX weekly Is there anything left in the USD bull-run (06 May)
middotFX weekly Dragon Energy (29 Apr)
middotFX weekly Relative curvature is the new king of FX (22 Apr)
middotFX weekly Why is EURUSD not trading lower (15 Apr)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle67382fx-weekly-a-fast-lane-to-taper-before-the-fed
middotFX weekly Like watching paint dry they said (08 Apr)
middotFX weekly The list of potential USD-positives is getting longer (01 Apr)
middotFX weekly 2 reasons why EURUSD has decoupled from rates spreads (25 Mar)
middotFX weekly Time to buy a USD lottery ticket (18 Mar)
middotFX weekly Taxation mirror on the wall who is the fairest of them all (11 Mar)
middotFX weekly Trumps game of chicken (04 Mar)
middotFX weekly Will the market neglect the clutch of canaries (25 Feb)
middotFX weekly Is the correlation break-down driven by FX hedges (18 Feb)
middotFX weekly The liquidity tide is ebbing (11 Feb)
middotFX weekly Hawkish spectacles (04 Feb)
middotFX weekly Who will stop EURUSD from moving higher (28 Jan)
middotFX weekly Did the Democrats dent the Dollar (21 Jan)
middotFX weekly Is 125 the new 120 (14 Jan)
middotFX weekly The euphoria rises (07 Jan)
middotFX weekly Paging Dr Pangloss (01 Jan)
middotFX weekly The R-star of Bethlehem (24 Dec)
middotFX weekly A numbers game (17 Dec)
middotFX weekly The year-end liquidty shrink (10 Dec)
middotFX weekly Three reasons why EURUSD isnt trading lower (03 Dec)
middotFX weekly Which currencies to sell if the housing downturn continues (26 Nov)
middotFX weekly The global industrial cycle is set to weaken (19 Nov)
middotFX weekly Is high-yield a canary in the global coal mine (12 Nov)
middotFX weekly Is this the end of the inflation convergence trade in EURUSD (5 Nov)
middotFX weekly Was that it for the EUR bulls (29 Oct)
middotFX weekly Hawks in opposition doves in charge (22 Oct)
middot FX weeklyContinued convergence or re-divergence(15 Oct)
middotFX weekly Thingsdont matter until they do(08 Oct)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle67382fx-weekly-a-fast-lane-to-taper-before-the-fed
middotFX weekly October seasonality is strong (01 Oct)
middotFX weekly ldquoIs 120 the new 115rdquo(24 Sep)
middot FX weekly Honey I shrunk the balance sheet(17 Sep)
middot FX weekly ldquoUSD liquidity will turn scarcer but whenrdquo (10 Sep)
middot FX weekly ldquoStrong currencies and inflationrdquo(3 Sep)
middot FX weekly ldquoUSD in the (Jackson) holerdquo (27 Aug)
middot FX weekly ldquoQ4 is the USD quarterrdquo(20 Aug)
middot FX weekly ldquoIn the year 2525rdquo(13 Aug)
middot FX weekly ldquoEURUSD ceiling or debt ceilingrdquo(6 Aug)
middot FX weeklyldquoElevator up stairs down ldquo(30 Jul)
middot FX weeklyTrump ldquospicesrdquo up EURUSD(23 Jul)
middot FX weeklyFlip-flop(16 Jul)
middot FX weeklyConsolidation time(9 Jul)
middot FX weeklyHawks R Us(2 Jul)
middot FX weeklyAnother lowflation week(25 Jun)
middot FX weeklyNo Fed put(18 Jun)
middot FX weeklyA bouncy dollar(11 Jun)
middot FX weeklyHeating up(4 Jun)
middot FX weeklySummertime sadness(28 May)
middot FX weeklySpecial counsel lessens Trumpbulence while OPEC looms(21 May)
middot FX weeklyAre China worries old hat(14 May)
middot FX weeklyInflation weekhellip(7 May)
Andreas Steno LarsenChief Global FXFI Strategistandreasstenolarsennordeacom+45 55 46 72 29
Martin EnlundGlobal Chief FX StrategistMartinEnlundnordeacom
e-marketsnordeacomarticle67382fx-weekly-a-fast-lane-to-taper-before-the-fed
httpsresearchnordeacomFICC
middotFX weekly The 50 Brsquos caused the downturn so what about the 60 Brsquos (13 Oct)
middotFX weekly Is everything falling apart (6 Oct)
middotFX weekly A new path for USD liquidity (29 Sep)
middotFX weekly Soft QE in October (22 Sep)
middotFX weekly Welcome to the birthday party (15 Sep)
middotFX weekly An early santa rally (08 Sep)
middotFX weekly Can you smell the Sushi yet (01 Sep)
middotFX weekly Mo taris mo cuts but whorsquos Sho Nu (25 Aug)
middotFX weekly First havens then sell confetti (18 Aug)
middotFX weekly The liquidity doom loop (11 Aug)
middotFX weekly Buy Treasuries Short Scandis Wear Diamonds (04 Aug)
middotFX weekly Lagarde better practice her Rhine dancing (28 Jul)
middotFX weekly Go big or go home (21 Jul)
middotFX weekly The liquidity plot thickens (14 Jul)
middotFX weekly e-scooters are silly (07Jul)
middotFX weekly One is exausted the other is nuts(30 Jun)
middotFX weekly Time to bring in Steven Seagal 2 (23 Jun)
middotFX weekly Get ready for climate QE (16 Jun)
middotFX weekly Cut cut cut cut (09 Jun)
middotFX weekly The absolute madman (02 Jun)
middotFX weekly Will Xi be Nikithared (26 May)
middotFX weekly Trade war ping pong (19 May)
middotFX weekly A stairway to heaven for Krona shorts (12 May)
middotFX weekly Mnuchin to bail-out Fed (05 May)
middotFX weekly 3 reasons why the USD has been resurgent (28 Apr)
middotFX weekly No doomsday (yet) (21 Apr)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle67382fx-weekly-a-fast-lane-to-taper-before-the-fed
middotFX weekly In EUR we trust (14 Apr)
middotFX weekly Crouching Tiger Hidden Inflation Dragon (07 Apr)
middotFX weekly There is a smell of 2016 in the air (31 Mar)
middotFX weekly Dear Mr Powell (24 Mar)
middotFX weekly The devils advocate (17 Mar)
middotFX weekly Mario Bla-blaghi (10 Mar)
middotFX weekly Chinese reflation (3 Mar)
middotFX weekly QT cannot run forever (24 Feb)
middotFX weekly The USD is now in Trumps hands (17 Feb)
middotFX weekly Time to care about Euro area politics again (10 Feb)
middotFX weekly Is Powell turning into a MAGA-man (03 Feb)
middotFX weekly On climate angst and fake news (27 Jan)
middotFX weekly The Mnuchin bailout (20 Jan)
middotFX weekly FX weekly Cause Im a flip-flopper yes I am (13 Jan)
middotFX weekly FX weekly Treasury vs Fed (06 Jan)
middotFX weekly Top 4 FXMM trades for Q1-2019 (01 Jan)
middotFX weekly On liquidity witches and warlocks (23 Dec)
middotFX weekly Qui Navance pas recule (16 Dec)
middotFX weekly Burnin down the house (9 Dec)
middotFX weekly In Gut we Trust (2 Dec)
middotFX weekly Pikachu aint no hobbit (25 Nov)
middotFX weekly Powell pondering pausing (18 Nov)
middotFX weekly Another SOMA-test of 113 (11 Nov)
middotFX weekly 113 will hold unless the Republicans keep both chambers (04 Nov)
middotFX weekly HIA SOMA and REBA-days (28 Oct)
middotFX weekly The debt ceiling is a USD ceiling (21 Oct)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle67382fx-weekly-a-fast-lane-to-taper-before-the-fed
middotFX weekly Volatility makes odd bedfellows (14 Oct)
middotFX weekly No Di-Maionnaise for your EURs (yet) (7 Oct)
middotFX weekly Along came year-end (30 Sep)
middotFX weekly Twin deficit scare 2 (23 Sep)
middotFX weekly The Pope of Nope has spoken (16 Sep)
middotFX weekly Who wants to impeach a +60 ISM president (09 Sep)
middotFX weekly It is time to go long Scandis again (02 Sep)
middotFX weekly The Conte-Trump alliance (26 Aug)
middotFX weekly Fat-burning shorts (19 Aug)
middotFX weekly Time to call in Steven Seagal(12 Aug)
middotFX weekly Is the cyclical momentum over-priced (05 Aug)
middotFX weekly How to trade a cease-fire (29 Jul)
middotFX weekly Whats that curve (22 Jul)
middotFX weekly The China Factor (15 Jul)
middotFX weekly Take a short trade war breather (08 Jul)
middotFX weekly Trump will never 238 (01 Jul)
middotFX weekly The USD is the best carry currency in the world (24 Jun)
middotFX weekly Dollar to provide headwinds for earning estimates (17 Jun)
middotFX weekly Fire and fury risks for the USD (10 Jun)
middotFX weekly Its not only Italy (03 Jun)
middotFX weekly The Sumo SOMA days (27 May)
middotFX weekly EM wont be sprinting if the Fed is unprinting (20 May)
middotFX weekly The two final nails in the dovish FOMC-con (13 May)
middotFX weekly Is there anything left in the USD bull-run (06 May)
middotFX weekly Dragon Energy (29 Apr)
middotFX weekly Relative curvature is the new king of FX (22 Apr)
middotFX weekly Why is EURUSD not trading lower (15 Apr)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle67382fx-weekly-a-fast-lane-to-taper-before-the-fed
middotFX weekly Like watching paint dry they said (08 Apr)
middotFX weekly The list of potential USD-positives is getting longer (01 Apr)
middotFX weekly 2 reasons why EURUSD has decoupled from rates spreads (25 Mar)
middotFX weekly Time to buy a USD lottery ticket (18 Mar)
middotFX weekly Taxation mirror on the wall who is the fairest of them all (11 Mar)
middotFX weekly Trumps game of chicken (04 Mar)
middotFX weekly Will the market neglect the clutch of canaries (25 Feb)
middotFX weekly Is the correlation break-down driven by FX hedges (18 Feb)
middotFX weekly The liquidity tide is ebbing (11 Feb)
middotFX weekly Hawkish spectacles (04 Feb)
middotFX weekly Who will stop EURUSD from moving higher (28 Jan)
middotFX weekly Did the Democrats dent the Dollar (21 Jan)
middotFX weekly Is 125 the new 120 (14 Jan)
middotFX weekly The euphoria rises (07 Jan)
middotFX weekly Paging Dr Pangloss (01 Jan)
middotFX weekly The R-star of Bethlehem (24 Dec)
middotFX weekly A numbers game (17 Dec)
middotFX weekly The year-end liquidty shrink (10 Dec)
middotFX weekly Three reasons why EURUSD isnt trading lower (03 Dec)
middotFX weekly Which currencies to sell if the housing downturn continues (26 Nov)
middotFX weekly The global industrial cycle is set to weaken (19 Nov)
middotFX weekly Is high-yield a canary in the global coal mine (12 Nov)
middotFX weekly Is this the end of the inflation convergence trade in EURUSD (5 Nov)
middotFX weekly Was that it for the EUR bulls (29 Oct)
middotFX weekly Hawks in opposition doves in charge (22 Oct)
middot FX weeklyContinued convergence or re-divergence(15 Oct)
middotFX weekly Thingsdont matter until they do(08 Oct)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle67382fx-weekly-a-fast-lane-to-taper-before-the-fed
middotFX weekly October seasonality is strong (01 Oct)
middotFX weekly ldquoIs 120 the new 115rdquo(24 Sep)
middot FX weekly Honey I shrunk the balance sheet(17 Sep)
middot FX weekly ldquoUSD liquidity will turn scarcer but whenrdquo (10 Sep)
middot FX weekly ldquoStrong currencies and inflationrdquo(3 Sep)
middot FX weekly ldquoUSD in the (Jackson) holerdquo (27 Aug)
middot FX weekly ldquoQ4 is the USD quarterrdquo(20 Aug)
middot FX weekly ldquoIn the year 2525rdquo(13 Aug)
middot FX weekly ldquoEURUSD ceiling or debt ceilingrdquo(6 Aug)
middot FX weeklyldquoElevator up stairs down ldquo(30 Jul)
middot FX weeklyTrump ldquospicesrdquo up EURUSD(23 Jul)
middot FX weeklyFlip-flop(16 Jul)
middot FX weeklyConsolidation time(9 Jul)
middot FX weeklyHawks R Us(2 Jul)
middot FX weeklyAnother lowflation week(25 Jun)
middot FX weeklyNo Fed put(18 Jun)
middot FX weeklyA bouncy dollar(11 Jun)
middot FX weeklyHeating up(4 Jun)
middot FX weeklySummertime sadness(28 May)
middot FX weeklySpecial counsel lessens Trumpbulence while OPEC looms(21 May)
middot FX weeklyAre China worries old hat(14 May)
middot FX weeklyInflation weekhellip(7 May)
Andreas Steno LarsenChief Global FXFI Strategistandreasstenolarsennordeacom+45 55 46 72 29
Martin EnlundGlobal Chief FX StrategistMartinEnlundnordeacom
e-marketsnordeacomarticle67382fx-weekly-a-fast-lane-to-taper-before-the-fed
httpsresearchnordeacomFICC
middotFX weekly In EUR we trust (14 Apr)
middotFX weekly Crouching Tiger Hidden Inflation Dragon (07 Apr)
middotFX weekly There is a smell of 2016 in the air (31 Mar)
middotFX weekly Dear Mr Powell (24 Mar)
middotFX weekly The devils advocate (17 Mar)
middotFX weekly Mario Bla-blaghi (10 Mar)
middotFX weekly Chinese reflation (3 Mar)
middotFX weekly QT cannot run forever (24 Feb)
middotFX weekly The USD is now in Trumps hands (17 Feb)
middotFX weekly Time to care about Euro area politics again (10 Feb)
middotFX weekly Is Powell turning into a MAGA-man (03 Feb)
middotFX weekly On climate angst and fake news (27 Jan)
middotFX weekly The Mnuchin bailout (20 Jan)
middotFX weekly FX weekly Cause Im a flip-flopper yes I am (13 Jan)
middotFX weekly FX weekly Treasury vs Fed (06 Jan)
middotFX weekly Top 4 FXMM trades for Q1-2019 (01 Jan)
middotFX weekly On liquidity witches and warlocks (23 Dec)
middotFX weekly Qui Navance pas recule (16 Dec)
middotFX weekly Burnin down the house (9 Dec)
middotFX weekly In Gut we Trust (2 Dec)
middotFX weekly Pikachu aint no hobbit (25 Nov)
middotFX weekly Powell pondering pausing (18 Nov)
middotFX weekly Another SOMA-test of 113 (11 Nov)
middotFX weekly 113 will hold unless the Republicans keep both chambers (04 Nov)
middotFX weekly HIA SOMA and REBA-days (28 Oct)
middotFX weekly The debt ceiling is a USD ceiling (21 Oct)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle67382fx-weekly-a-fast-lane-to-taper-before-the-fed
middotFX weekly Volatility makes odd bedfellows (14 Oct)
middotFX weekly No Di-Maionnaise for your EURs (yet) (7 Oct)
middotFX weekly Along came year-end (30 Sep)
middotFX weekly Twin deficit scare 2 (23 Sep)
middotFX weekly The Pope of Nope has spoken (16 Sep)
middotFX weekly Who wants to impeach a +60 ISM president (09 Sep)
middotFX weekly It is time to go long Scandis again (02 Sep)
middotFX weekly The Conte-Trump alliance (26 Aug)
middotFX weekly Fat-burning shorts (19 Aug)
middotFX weekly Time to call in Steven Seagal(12 Aug)
middotFX weekly Is the cyclical momentum over-priced (05 Aug)
middotFX weekly How to trade a cease-fire (29 Jul)
middotFX weekly Whats that curve (22 Jul)
middotFX weekly The China Factor (15 Jul)
middotFX weekly Take a short trade war breather (08 Jul)
middotFX weekly Trump will never 238 (01 Jul)
middotFX weekly The USD is the best carry currency in the world (24 Jun)
middotFX weekly Dollar to provide headwinds for earning estimates (17 Jun)
middotFX weekly Fire and fury risks for the USD (10 Jun)
middotFX weekly Its not only Italy (03 Jun)
middotFX weekly The Sumo SOMA days (27 May)
middotFX weekly EM wont be sprinting if the Fed is unprinting (20 May)
middotFX weekly The two final nails in the dovish FOMC-con (13 May)
middotFX weekly Is there anything left in the USD bull-run (06 May)
middotFX weekly Dragon Energy (29 Apr)
middotFX weekly Relative curvature is the new king of FX (22 Apr)
middotFX weekly Why is EURUSD not trading lower (15 Apr)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle67382fx-weekly-a-fast-lane-to-taper-before-the-fed
middotFX weekly Like watching paint dry they said (08 Apr)
middotFX weekly The list of potential USD-positives is getting longer (01 Apr)
middotFX weekly 2 reasons why EURUSD has decoupled from rates spreads (25 Mar)
middotFX weekly Time to buy a USD lottery ticket (18 Mar)
middotFX weekly Taxation mirror on the wall who is the fairest of them all (11 Mar)
middotFX weekly Trumps game of chicken (04 Mar)
middotFX weekly Will the market neglect the clutch of canaries (25 Feb)
middotFX weekly Is the correlation break-down driven by FX hedges (18 Feb)
middotFX weekly The liquidity tide is ebbing (11 Feb)
middotFX weekly Hawkish spectacles (04 Feb)
middotFX weekly Who will stop EURUSD from moving higher (28 Jan)
middotFX weekly Did the Democrats dent the Dollar (21 Jan)
middotFX weekly Is 125 the new 120 (14 Jan)
middotFX weekly The euphoria rises (07 Jan)
middotFX weekly Paging Dr Pangloss (01 Jan)
middotFX weekly The R-star of Bethlehem (24 Dec)
middotFX weekly A numbers game (17 Dec)
middotFX weekly The year-end liquidty shrink (10 Dec)
middotFX weekly Three reasons why EURUSD isnt trading lower (03 Dec)
middotFX weekly Which currencies to sell if the housing downturn continues (26 Nov)
middotFX weekly The global industrial cycle is set to weaken (19 Nov)
middotFX weekly Is high-yield a canary in the global coal mine (12 Nov)
middotFX weekly Is this the end of the inflation convergence trade in EURUSD (5 Nov)
middotFX weekly Was that it for the EUR bulls (29 Oct)
middotFX weekly Hawks in opposition doves in charge (22 Oct)
middot FX weeklyContinued convergence or re-divergence(15 Oct)
middotFX weekly Thingsdont matter until they do(08 Oct)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle67382fx-weekly-a-fast-lane-to-taper-before-the-fed
middotFX weekly October seasonality is strong (01 Oct)
middotFX weekly ldquoIs 120 the new 115rdquo(24 Sep)
middot FX weekly Honey I shrunk the balance sheet(17 Sep)
middot FX weekly ldquoUSD liquidity will turn scarcer but whenrdquo (10 Sep)
middot FX weekly ldquoStrong currencies and inflationrdquo(3 Sep)
middot FX weekly ldquoUSD in the (Jackson) holerdquo (27 Aug)
middot FX weekly ldquoQ4 is the USD quarterrdquo(20 Aug)
middot FX weekly ldquoIn the year 2525rdquo(13 Aug)
middot FX weekly ldquoEURUSD ceiling or debt ceilingrdquo(6 Aug)
middot FX weeklyldquoElevator up stairs down ldquo(30 Jul)
middot FX weeklyTrump ldquospicesrdquo up EURUSD(23 Jul)
middot FX weeklyFlip-flop(16 Jul)
middot FX weeklyConsolidation time(9 Jul)
middot FX weeklyHawks R Us(2 Jul)
middot FX weeklyAnother lowflation week(25 Jun)
middot FX weeklyNo Fed put(18 Jun)
middot FX weeklyA bouncy dollar(11 Jun)
middot FX weeklyHeating up(4 Jun)
middot FX weeklySummertime sadness(28 May)
middot FX weeklySpecial counsel lessens Trumpbulence while OPEC looms(21 May)
middot FX weeklyAre China worries old hat(14 May)
middot FX weeklyInflation weekhellip(7 May)
Andreas Steno LarsenChief Global FXFI Strategistandreasstenolarsennordeacom+45 55 46 72 29
Martin EnlundGlobal Chief FX StrategistMartinEnlundnordeacom
e-marketsnordeacomarticle67382fx-weekly-a-fast-lane-to-taper-before-the-fed
httpsresearchnordeacomFICC
middotFX weekly Volatility makes odd bedfellows (14 Oct)
middotFX weekly No Di-Maionnaise for your EURs (yet) (7 Oct)
middotFX weekly Along came year-end (30 Sep)
middotFX weekly Twin deficit scare 2 (23 Sep)
middotFX weekly The Pope of Nope has spoken (16 Sep)
middotFX weekly Who wants to impeach a +60 ISM president (09 Sep)
middotFX weekly It is time to go long Scandis again (02 Sep)
middotFX weekly The Conte-Trump alliance (26 Aug)
middotFX weekly Fat-burning shorts (19 Aug)
middotFX weekly Time to call in Steven Seagal(12 Aug)
middotFX weekly Is the cyclical momentum over-priced (05 Aug)
middotFX weekly How to trade a cease-fire (29 Jul)
middotFX weekly Whats that curve (22 Jul)
middotFX weekly The China Factor (15 Jul)
middotFX weekly Take a short trade war breather (08 Jul)
middotFX weekly Trump will never 238 (01 Jul)
middotFX weekly The USD is the best carry currency in the world (24 Jun)
middotFX weekly Dollar to provide headwinds for earning estimates (17 Jun)
middotFX weekly Fire and fury risks for the USD (10 Jun)
middotFX weekly Its not only Italy (03 Jun)
middotFX weekly The Sumo SOMA days (27 May)
middotFX weekly EM wont be sprinting if the Fed is unprinting (20 May)
middotFX weekly The two final nails in the dovish FOMC-con (13 May)
middotFX weekly Is there anything left in the USD bull-run (06 May)
middotFX weekly Dragon Energy (29 Apr)
middotFX weekly Relative curvature is the new king of FX (22 Apr)
middotFX weekly Why is EURUSD not trading lower (15 Apr)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle67382fx-weekly-a-fast-lane-to-taper-before-the-fed
middotFX weekly Like watching paint dry they said (08 Apr)
middotFX weekly The list of potential USD-positives is getting longer (01 Apr)
middotFX weekly 2 reasons why EURUSD has decoupled from rates spreads (25 Mar)
middotFX weekly Time to buy a USD lottery ticket (18 Mar)
middotFX weekly Taxation mirror on the wall who is the fairest of them all (11 Mar)
middotFX weekly Trumps game of chicken (04 Mar)
middotFX weekly Will the market neglect the clutch of canaries (25 Feb)
middotFX weekly Is the correlation break-down driven by FX hedges (18 Feb)
middotFX weekly The liquidity tide is ebbing (11 Feb)
middotFX weekly Hawkish spectacles (04 Feb)
middotFX weekly Who will stop EURUSD from moving higher (28 Jan)
middotFX weekly Did the Democrats dent the Dollar (21 Jan)
middotFX weekly Is 125 the new 120 (14 Jan)
middotFX weekly The euphoria rises (07 Jan)
middotFX weekly Paging Dr Pangloss (01 Jan)
middotFX weekly The R-star of Bethlehem (24 Dec)
middotFX weekly A numbers game (17 Dec)
middotFX weekly The year-end liquidty shrink (10 Dec)
middotFX weekly Three reasons why EURUSD isnt trading lower (03 Dec)
middotFX weekly Which currencies to sell if the housing downturn continues (26 Nov)
middotFX weekly The global industrial cycle is set to weaken (19 Nov)
middotFX weekly Is high-yield a canary in the global coal mine (12 Nov)
middotFX weekly Is this the end of the inflation convergence trade in EURUSD (5 Nov)
middotFX weekly Was that it for the EUR bulls (29 Oct)
middotFX weekly Hawks in opposition doves in charge (22 Oct)
middot FX weeklyContinued convergence or re-divergence(15 Oct)
middotFX weekly Thingsdont matter until they do(08 Oct)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle67382fx-weekly-a-fast-lane-to-taper-before-the-fed
middotFX weekly October seasonality is strong (01 Oct)
middotFX weekly ldquoIs 120 the new 115rdquo(24 Sep)
middot FX weekly Honey I shrunk the balance sheet(17 Sep)
middot FX weekly ldquoUSD liquidity will turn scarcer but whenrdquo (10 Sep)
middot FX weekly ldquoStrong currencies and inflationrdquo(3 Sep)
middot FX weekly ldquoUSD in the (Jackson) holerdquo (27 Aug)
middot FX weekly ldquoQ4 is the USD quarterrdquo(20 Aug)
middot FX weekly ldquoIn the year 2525rdquo(13 Aug)
middot FX weekly ldquoEURUSD ceiling or debt ceilingrdquo(6 Aug)
middot FX weeklyldquoElevator up stairs down ldquo(30 Jul)
middot FX weeklyTrump ldquospicesrdquo up EURUSD(23 Jul)
middot FX weeklyFlip-flop(16 Jul)
middot FX weeklyConsolidation time(9 Jul)
middot FX weeklyHawks R Us(2 Jul)
middot FX weeklyAnother lowflation week(25 Jun)
middot FX weeklyNo Fed put(18 Jun)
middot FX weeklyA bouncy dollar(11 Jun)
middot FX weeklyHeating up(4 Jun)
middot FX weeklySummertime sadness(28 May)
middot FX weeklySpecial counsel lessens Trumpbulence while OPEC looms(21 May)
middot FX weeklyAre China worries old hat(14 May)
middot FX weeklyInflation weekhellip(7 May)
Andreas Steno LarsenChief Global FXFI Strategistandreasstenolarsennordeacom+45 55 46 72 29
Martin EnlundGlobal Chief FX StrategistMartinEnlundnordeacom
e-marketsnordeacomarticle67382fx-weekly-a-fast-lane-to-taper-before-the-fed
httpsresearchnordeacomFICC
middotFX weekly Like watching paint dry they said (08 Apr)
middotFX weekly The list of potential USD-positives is getting longer (01 Apr)
middotFX weekly 2 reasons why EURUSD has decoupled from rates spreads (25 Mar)
middotFX weekly Time to buy a USD lottery ticket (18 Mar)
middotFX weekly Taxation mirror on the wall who is the fairest of them all (11 Mar)
middotFX weekly Trumps game of chicken (04 Mar)
middotFX weekly Will the market neglect the clutch of canaries (25 Feb)
middotFX weekly Is the correlation break-down driven by FX hedges (18 Feb)
middotFX weekly The liquidity tide is ebbing (11 Feb)
middotFX weekly Hawkish spectacles (04 Feb)
middotFX weekly Who will stop EURUSD from moving higher (28 Jan)
middotFX weekly Did the Democrats dent the Dollar (21 Jan)
middotFX weekly Is 125 the new 120 (14 Jan)
middotFX weekly The euphoria rises (07 Jan)
middotFX weekly Paging Dr Pangloss (01 Jan)
middotFX weekly The R-star of Bethlehem (24 Dec)
middotFX weekly A numbers game (17 Dec)
middotFX weekly The year-end liquidty shrink (10 Dec)
middotFX weekly Three reasons why EURUSD isnt trading lower (03 Dec)
middotFX weekly Which currencies to sell if the housing downturn continues (26 Nov)
middotFX weekly The global industrial cycle is set to weaken (19 Nov)
middotFX weekly Is high-yield a canary in the global coal mine (12 Nov)
middotFX weekly Is this the end of the inflation convergence trade in EURUSD (5 Nov)
middotFX weekly Was that it for the EUR bulls (29 Oct)
middotFX weekly Hawks in opposition doves in charge (22 Oct)
middot FX weeklyContinued convergence or re-divergence(15 Oct)
middotFX weekly Thingsdont matter until they do(08 Oct)
e-marketsnordeacomarticle67382fx-weekly-a-fast-lane-to-taper-before-the-fed
middotFX weekly October seasonality is strong (01 Oct)
middotFX weekly ldquoIs 120 the new 115rdquo(24 Sep)
middot FX weekly Honey I shrunk the balance sheet(17 Sep)
middot FX weekly ldquoUSD liquidity will turn scarcer but whenrdquo (10 Sep)
middot FX weekly ldquoStrong currencies and inflationrdquo(3 Sep)
middot FX weekly ldquoUSD in the (Jackson) holerdquo (27 Aug)
middot FX weekly ldquoQ4 is the USD quarterrdquo(20 Aug)
middot FX weekly ldquoIn the year 2525rdquo(13 Aug)
middot FX weekly ldquoEURUSD ceiling or debt ceilingrdquo(6 Aug)
middot FX weeklyldquoElevator up stairs down ldquo(30 Jul)
middot FX weeklyTrump ldquospicesrdquo up EURUSD(23 Jul)
middot FX weeklyFlip-flop(16 Jul)
middot FX weeklyConsolidation time(9 Jul)
middot FX weeklyHawks R Us(2 Jul)
middot FX weeklyAnother lowflation week(25 Jun)
middot FX weeklyNo Fed put(18 Jun)
middot FX weeklyA bouncy dollar(11 Jun)
middot FX weeklyHeating up(4 Jun)
middot FX weeklySummertime sadness(28 May)
middot FX weeklySpecial counsel lessens Trumpbulence while OPEC looms(21 May)
middot FX weeklyAre China worries old hat(14 May)
middot FX weeklyInflation weekhellip(7 May)
Andreas Steno LarsenChief Global FXFI Strategistandreasstenolarsennordeacom+45 55 46 72 29
Martin EnlundGlobal Chief FX StrategistMartinEnlundnordeacom
e-marketsnordeacomarticle67382fx-weekly-a-fast-lane-to-taper-before-the-fed
httpsresearchnordeacomFICC
middotFX weekly October seasonality is strong (01 Oct)
middotFX weekly ldquoIs 120 the new 115rdquo(24 Sep)
middot FX weekly Honey I shrunk the balance sheet(17 Sep)
middot FX weekly ldquoUSD liquidity will turn scarcer but whenrdquo (10 Sep)
middot FX weekly ldquoStrong currencies and inflationrdquo(3 Sep)
middot FX weekly ldquoUSD in the (Jackson) holerdquo (27 Aug)
middot FX weekly ldquoQ4 is the USD quarterrdquo(20 Aug)
middot FX weekly ldquoIn the year 2525rdquo(13 Aug)
middot FX weekly ldquoEURUSD ceiling or debt ceilingrdquo(6 Aug)
middot FX weeklyldquoElevator up stairs down ldquo(30 Jul)
middot FX weeklyTrump ldquospicesrdquo up EURUSD(23 Jul)
middot FX weeklyFlip-flop(16 Jul)
middot FX weeklyConsolidation time(9 Jul)
middot FX weeklyHawks R Us(2 Jul)
middot FX weeklyAnother lowflation week(25 Jun)
middot FX weeklyNo Fed put(18 Jun)
middot FX weeklyA bouncy dollar(11 Jun)
middot FX weeklyHeating up(4 Jun)
middot FX weeklySummertime sadness(28 May)
middot FX weeklySpecial counsel lessens Trumpbulence while OPEC looms(21 May)
middot FX weeklyAre China worries old hat(14 May)
middot FX weeklyInflation weekhellip(7 May)
Andreas Steno LarsenChief Global FXFI Strategistandreasstenolarsennordeacom+45 55 46 72 29
Martin EnlundGlobal Chief FX StrategistMartinEnlundnordeacom
e-marketsnordeacomarticle67382fx-weekly-a-fast-lane-to-taper-before-the-fed
httpsresearchnordeacomFICC
httpsresearchnordeacomFICC
