1. Patterns in Play (USD-CAD, USD-CHF, EUR-USD, AUD-USD, COFFEE, SOYBEANS, BRAZIL &

JAPAN ETF, GBP-USD, Nzd-Usd)

2. Developing Patterns (Gold GOLD MINERS)

3. Developing Patterns

(GBP-JPY, GBP-CAD)

Commodities & Forex Classical Chart Patterns Report

ProTradingFutures.com

Week of August 11, 2014

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Patterns in Play

The daily chart , on its s ide , p rov ided two smal ler pat terns (a descending Wedge and a reversal Cup and Handle) that allowed us to identify a good risk/reward setup to profit from this bounce and possibly hold a position up to the measured target of the bigger pattern.

UNITED STATES DOLLAR/CANADIAN DOLLAR (USD-CAD)!!In its monthly chart, the USD-CAD pair shows a completed Bottom formation, followed by quick thrust and then a correction to retest the Neckline. !

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!PORTFOLIO POSITIONING!My position in this market remain unchanged from the last week. I’m planning to sell 1/3 of my position at 1.100 and keep the rest for the other 2 targets above: 1.129x and 1.16xx. I’m risking a close below 1.070. !

Patterns in Play

USD-CHF!!Wedges are patterns that shall generate shift moves.

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When I commit to play a Wedge I want to see a decisive follow up from from market. !USD-CHF failed to do so. !So, even if there are tw o p a t t e rn s ( t h e weekly Wedge and the daily Cup and Handle)that are still in play in this cross rate, I’m out of it as of Friday.!!PORTFOLIO POSITIONING !I am flat in this market

Patterns In Play

EURO FX (EUR-USD, 6E, M6E)!!Long term charts of the Euro shows a multi year price congestion, that makes difficult, if not impossible, to engage in a long term campaign !keeping a small risk/reward profile.!

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PORTFOLIO POSITIONING!I’m short this market via futures contract with a stop just above the Neckline of the H&S (at 1.356). !The Head and Shoulder target is at 1.300.

S h o r t t e r m , a small Head and S h o u l d e r formation (visible both on on the d a i l y a n d t h e week ly char ts ) was completed on July 22. !The target of this pattern is 1.300.!

Patterns In Play

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR - UNITED STATES DOLLAR (AUD-USD, 6A, M6A)!!Long term, the Australian dollar has an un-reach target from a multi month Symmetrical Triangle (visible on the monthly plot below) at around 0.800. !I haven’t seen any good tradable short setup in this pair over the past months but the past week. !!

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AU$ completed a small Head and Shoulder that projects a move just below 0.9200. This small pattern eventually can be the start of a move to 0.8000.!!PORTFOLIO POSITIONING!!I’m short via September futures with a stop on close only at 0.9383.

Patterns In Play

COFFEE (KC, JO)!!Wow! Coffee is a market that can be very volatile and that reminds me while I prefer to stick with Coffee ETF rather than trade futures contracts. The close above June’s high made 42/JO the next target higher. !Even if the price action of the past week was all but supportive, this setups remains valid until a close below $34 would negate the failed Heand and Shoulder interpretation. !!PORTFOLIO POSITIONING !I have closed all my longs before either the target and the stop got hit. I simply didn’t like to see such big weakness in a market in which I’m long.

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Patterns in Play

SOYBEANS (ZS, XS)!!The market is struggling at the neckline of a multi-month H&S pattern. The gap (visible on the weekly) at $1130 shall remain open for this pattern to remain valid.

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I was hoping for a gap down on Monday but the market failed to follow my willing (!) and so I ended up closing my short position at break-even on Thursday. !In reality what I didn’t like about XS/ZS was the divergence between RSI and price (see the chart below).

PORTFOLIO POSITIONING !I’m short at these levels. with a buy SOC at $1120

Patterns in Play

!Short term the ETF is making higher lows and higher highs. !More upside is expected, both sort term and medium term.!

BRAZIL INDEX MSCI ISHARES (EWZ)!!A 46-month descending Wedge is in play. The measured objective of this pattern is at $78.

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Patterns in Play

DFJ JAPAN SMALL CAP DIVIDEND WISDOM TREE!!Last week DFJ felt apart as most of the index equity ETF. The low of last week shall not be penetrated on closing basis for the bullish setup to remain in place.

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Patterns In Play

Long term, the1.675 level remains the line in t he sand be tween bullish territory and the congestion range. !

BRITISH POUND (GPB-USD, 6B, M6B)!!Until we remain above 2011 highs (around 1.675) the long term prospect for the Cable remains bullish.!Short term this cross rate has been in a free fall and is unlikely to present any decent setup for a swing trade on the upside.

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!PORTFOLIO POSITIONING!I’m flat.

Patterns in Play

!This is not a good sign. !In particular, a close be low 0.840 would negate the Symmetrical Triangle interpretation and suggest that a retest August 2013 low (around 0.7720) could occur before new highs are seen in this market.

NEO ZEALAND DOLLAR/UNITED STATES DOLLAR (NZD/USD)!!The long term Symmetrical Triangle in NZ$ remains in play, BUT prices failed to close above 2011 highs.

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PORTFOLIO POSITIONING!I’m flat after that I got kicked out from my longs at 0.8580.

Developing Patterns

BRITISH POUND/CANADIAN DOLLAR (GBP-CAD)!!This market presents a juicy opportunity, in my point of view.!As you can see from the longer term chart, GPB-CAD is forming a possible tight Flag after an explosive move from a multi-year base.

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Looking at the daily charts we can expect a quick development on the upside. Anyhow until we have a clear breakout, I’m not going to take any commitment here.

Developing Patterns

GOLD MINERS (GDX)!!The long term chart of Gold Minders is forming a reversal setup at a key critical level. The measured objective price of the reversal Head and Shoulder (visible in the weekly chart) is 40% above current levels.

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Shorter term this market has generated a lot of false signal. A good way to remove the noise is to look the daily line chart only (shown below).!!I’m willing to commit on the long side at a close above $28 risking a swing low to $25.5. In my opinion the upside potential here is much more than the H&S target.

Failed Patterns

Last week action negated this interpretation.

BRITISH POUND-JAPANESE YEN (GBP-JPY)!!The weekly plot leaves no doubts: the medium and long term trends are up. For the last several months the price has been in a congestion.

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PORTFOLIO POSITIONING!Long 12,500 GPB/JPY. Entry price: 174.6. Stop @ 172.0. I will add to my position above 174. I’m not going to short on weakness.

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