fw_week_11_2012-3
Transcript of fw_week_11_2012-3
8/2/2019 fw_week_11_2012-3
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/fwweek112012-3 1/2
www.fearnleys.com
WEEKLY Published by Fearnresearch 14. March 2012
TANKERS
CHARTERINGCrudeAlthough appearing rather quiet at first glance, things are happening in theVLCC market with charterers picking up tonnage; requirements for the thirddecade of March are far more plentiful than initially predicted.Understandably, owners remain optimistic and are offering at steamynumbers when approached by charterers, particularly for WAF liftings. Aprilstems have yet to be released, but charterers are already pursuing early Apriltonnage given the fact that the position list for the first ten days of themonth is distinctively thin. Suezmax activity in WAF maintained last week´smomentum, and less tonnage is available to charterers. A good deal of Suezmax activity in the Caribs and the USG has also helped to maketonnage scarcer, and this could herald further rate improvements. In the MedSuezmax charterers also had their problems as bad weather during the lastfew days has contributed to many port delays and limited available tonnagefor dates in play. Aframax rates in the Nsea saw a marginal improvement of about 5 ws points in what can only be described as a continuing poor market. Nonetheless, a strong market for Aframaxes in the Med/Bsea is causing anumber of Aframaxes to ballast away, and this may eventually improve ratesin this area. In the Med/Bsea there was a significant increase in charteringactivity, and this, combined with recent weather delays, bodes well for further rate increases soon. In the Caribs Aframax rates declined by about 20ws points largely due to a more well-balanced market and enough tonnageavailability.ProductWest activity is again muted and the lull from last week continues. MRstrading T/A are under continued pressure, pushing rates down to ws157.5for UKC/USAC basis 37kt. There is still an abundance of available ships onthe Cont and we expect rates to keep soft in the near term. Since hitting the peak last week the LR1s are now following suit with the MRs, pushing rateslower to ws122.5 for Baltic/USAC basis 60kt with the naphtha arbitragegoing east shutting down again as well. Handy- and Flexisizes have seen asteep correction with ice in the Baltic disappearing slowly but surely. Cross-Cont rates are hence weaker at ws165 basis 30kt, and ws215 basis 22kt. The busiest market seems to be in the USG, with plenty of cargoes still headedfor S.America; that being said the arbitrage for going UKC or Med is stillclosed, keeping rates in check ws100 basis 38kt. The few positive tendencieswe saw last week seems to have been short lived and activity has yet againcome down. Rates remain unchanged and LR1s still fixing at ws100 for MEG/JPN voyages basis 55kt, and rates for JET cargoes MEG/UKC areestimated to USD 1.7m basis 65kt. Despite a substantial reduction in availableLR2s last week, rates remain unchanged at ws85 for MEG/JPN voyages basis 75kt. Rates for MRs trading SPORE/JPN are estimated to about ws120
basis 30kt, and MRs trading MEG/JPN see rates around ws112 basis 35kt.ACTIVITY LEVEL
VLCC Suezmax Aframax P. E. of Suez P. W. of Suez
Firm Firmer Mixed Soft Slower
RATES
DIRTY (Spot WS)This Week Last Week Low 2012 High 2012
MEG / West VLCC 38.0 34.0 31.0 38.0
MEG / Japan VLCC 63.0 54.5 48.0 64.0
MEG / Singapore 260,000 64.0 55.0 48.0 65.0
WAF / USG 260,000 67.5 60.0 56.5 67.5
WAF / USAC 130,000 85.0 80.0 72.5 92.5
Sidi Kerir / W Me 135,000 90.0 75.0 75.0 110.0
N. Afr / Euromed 80,000 127.5 110.0 80.0 127.5
UK / Cont 80,000 100.0 90.0 85.0 110.0
Caribs / USG 70,000 100.0 110.0 97.5 140.0
CLEAN (Spot WS)MEG / Japan 75,000 85.0 85.0 82.5 90.0
MEG / Japan 55,000 100.0 100.0 97.5 107.5
MEG / Japan 30,000 112.0 110.0 105.0 120.0
Singapore / Japan 30,000 120.0 120.0 115.0 123.0
Baltic T/A 60,000 122.5 135.0 115.0 135.0
UKC-Med / States 37,000 157.5 165.0 140.0 190.0
Caribs / USNH 38,000 150.0 150.0 120.0 185.0
1 YEAR T/C (usd/day) (theoretical)
VLCC (modern) 19,500 19,000 17,000 20,000
Suezmax (modern) 16,000 16,000 15,000 16,000
Aframax (modern) 13,500 13,000 12,500 13,500
LR2 105,000 13,500 13,750 13,500 13,750
LR1 80,000 13,000 13,500 13,000 13,500
MR 47,000 13,750 13,750 13,500 13,750
VLCCs fixed all areas last week: 48 previous week: 47
VLCCs avail. in MEG next 30 days: 85 last week: 84
SALE AND PURCHASE
Vessel Size Built Buyer Price Comm.
Naviga 150 841 1998 Indonesian 16,00 Sub tender
Libyan Galaxy 105 484 2008 Tanker Pacific 36,00 e ach from arrest
QVM Success 105 162 1998 Undisclosed 10,50
Millenium Explorer 102 741 1999 Greek 10,80 Coated DH
Peter Zrinski 101 605 1994 Greek 8,80
Pacific Bravery 68 967 1999 Greek 8,00
Cape Bear 33 540 1997 Indonesian 8,80 Coated Coiled
DRY BULK
CHARTERINGHandyA slightly positive trend was seen last week in the Atlantic. Skaw-Passerodeliveries fixed around USD 3k to US Gulf, while US Gulf deliveres fetchedUSD 13k for trips back to the Continent. Fronthual were hovering aroundUSD 13500, while Cannakle deliveries tick above USD 12k for same. ThePacific market is firming up but seems in general little quieter today.Meanwhile, South Africa rates are climbing slightly, WC India/China ironore rates still hovering between 13/14.00 pmt. Red Sea/India is still at lowUSD 20´s. Supramax rates remained strong in the east. SE Asia/China-Indiarates are hovering between usd15/16k.
PanamaxEast Coast South America grains could be the joker for the Panamax marketin the near future, with rumors of China imports rising to 56 MT this year.Fewer ballasters from the Far East fueled the optimism for ESCSA Aprilloaders, where eco vessels now fix above 16k + 600 GBB APS. With someadditional fresh mineral cargoes appearing in the North Atlantic the T/Arounds are slowly moving up to around 6k on T/C. The Pacific market seemsto lose some of the positive momentum caught last week, with lack of freshcargoes and a growing list of open positions. Levels are in the low/mid 7k range. The forward market is descending, affected by the overwhelmingsupply of newbuildings in all segments. Moreover, rumors and news from
struggling owners keep an underlying weak sentiment and trading pacerelatively slow.
CapesizeThe Pacific activity level picked up without actually bringing the rate up. Infact it fell back marginally. In addition the recent flurry of short periodfixing has also ebbed. It does not help that Sanko are seeking restructuring,a new cyclone is building up off Western Australia, and the Atlantic marketis still inactive. The indices have continued to drop and the forward paper curve looks a lot like last year´s actual curve, indicating a lack of confidencein the market.
ACTIVITY LEVELCapesize Panamax Handysize
Slow Mixed Low
RATES
CAPESIZE (usd/day, usd/tonne)This Week Last Week Low 2012 High 2012
TCT Cont/Far East (172´ dwt) 20,200 20,900 19,500 43,000
Tubarao / R.dam (Iron ore) 8.25 8.55 8.25 12.70
Richards Bay/R.dam 8.60 8.70 8.60 11.00
PANAMAX (usd/day, usd/tonne)
Transatlantic RV 6,000 4,270 4,250 13,800
TCT Cont / F. East 16,000 14,200 13,950 23,900
TCT F. East / Cont 2,800
TCT F. East RV 7,800 8,850 4,950 9,900
Murmansk b.13-ARA 15/25,000 sc 7.45 7.00 6.95 9.45
Murmansk b.13-L.pool 15/25,000 sc 8.25 7.75 7.70 10.35
HANDYSIZE (usd/day)
Atlantic RV 8,100 5,980 5,000 15,100
Pacific RV 11,280 9,600 4,180 11,280
TCT Cont / F. East 12,765 12,000 11,500 23,400
1 YEAR T/C (usd/day)
Capesize 150,000 dwt 11,250 11,500 11,000 15,000
Capesize 170,000 dwt 13,250 13,500 13,000 17,000
Panamax 75,000 dwt 11,000 11,500 10,000 12,000
Handysize 53,000 dwt 12,000 11,000 10,000 12,000
Baltic Dry Index (BDI): This Week: 855 Last week: 798
SALE AND PURCHASE
Vessel Size Built Buyer Price Comm.
Paiute 70 293 1995 Chinese 10,50 on subs
Libre 52 510 2001 Bangladeshi 14,80
Santa Pacifica 28 520 2000 Turkish 10,00
Ikan Sepat 28 503 1984 European 3,00
Ocean ID 28 429 1994 Far Eastern 7,80
Siam Jade 27 652 1986 Chinese 3,10
8/2/2019 fw_week_11_2012-3
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/fwweek112012-3 2/2
Fearnleys Weekly Report 14. March 2012 Published by Fearnresearch
GAS
CHARTERINGThe VLGC spot market has gone through another uninspiring week characterized by low activity, little change in freight rates and a BalticVLGC index coming off in small increments every day. There are not toomany prompt VLGCs at all, but the problem is they outnumber theremaining March cargoes in need of freight. The true VLGC market has notreally been tested in the last week, but we assume it is somewhere in themid USD 40´s basis 1:1 Ras Tanura/Chiba - a number equal to around USD12,000 per day on a modern VLGC and recent HFO prices. It is not crystalclear what we can expect ahead, lack of activity and initiatives should intheory put rates further down in the East, but at the same time currentnumbers are not far off OPEX and therefore a further noticeable reductionwould be very surprising. The fashion of taking western origin cargoes easthas come to an end for now as the fob/cfr delta is too low, nonetheless weexpect that quite a few of those vessels enroute to the East from the West willhead back into the chartering-wise tighter western hemisphere.
ACTIVITY LEVELCOASTER 15-23,000 cbm 82,000 cbm
Moderate Strong Low
RATES
SPOT MARKET (usd/month***)This Week Last Week Low 2012 High 2012
82.000 cbm / FR 385,000 395,000 185,000 410,000
57.000 cbm / FR 900,000 900,000 725,000 900,000
35.600 cbm / FR 875,000 875,000 750,000 875,000
20.000 cbm / SR* 790,000 790,000 740,000 790,000
10.000 cbm ETH** 620,000 620,000 580,000 620,0006.500 cbm / SR 500,000 520,000 470,000 520,000
COASTER Europe 300,000 310,000 245,000 310,000
COASTER Asia 240,000 240,000 235,000 240,000
* 20,000 cbm s/r reflects average spot market, LPG and Petchems (segment 15,000 /23,000 cbm)
** 10,000 cbm eth reflects average spot market, Petchems and LPG (segment 8,200 /12,500 cbm)
*** Excl. waiting time, if any
LNG
SPOT MARKET (usd/day)This Week Last Week Low 2012 High 2012
East of Suez 138-145´cbm 121,000 120,000 120,000 150,000
West of Suez 138-145´cbm 125,000 125,000 125,000 150,000
1 yr TC 138-145´cbm 150,000 148,000 148,000 158,000
LPG/FOB prices (usd/tonne) Propane Butane ISO
FOB North Sea / ANSI 1104.00 1004.50Saudi Arabia / CP 1230.00 1180.00
MT Belvieu (US Gulf) 658.28 882.35 979.25
Sonatrach : Bethioua 1160.00 1100.00
SALE AND PURCHASE
Vessel Cbm Type Built Buyers Price Misc
No reportable sales this week
DEMOLITION
Vessels sold for demolition
VLCC/VLOO SUEZMAX CAPE/OBO
Year to date 2012: 5 5 9
Year to date 2011: 3 1 17
2011 total: 14 6 65
SOLD FOR DEMOLITIONVessel name Size Ldt Built Buyer Price
BC Northgate 179 422 23 102 1984 Chinese 438
OBO Trust Integrity 96 027 15 136 1992 Bangladeshi 470
MT Smooth Hound 84 040 21 290 1993 Pakistani 505
CONT Aramis 43 198 14 342 1984 Chinese 425
BC Mohawk Princess 40 300 8 196 1982 Indian 485
BC Karmen 38 135 9 359 1983 Indian 480
CONT Cape Race 35 071 13 496 1993 Indian 490
BC Aspen Arrow 28 030 8 603 1985 Chinese 432
CONT Theraps 20 270 6 851 1992 Indian 513
GC Professor Barabanov
19 943 10 816 1983 Indian 485
GC Eastern Carrier 14 930 67 776 1985 Chinese 438
LPG Maregas 7 656 3 642 1983 Indian 640
NEWBUILDING
GENERAL COMMENTA total of 9 newbuildings reported this week, 5 of which are Kamsarmax placed by NSCSA at Oshima. The reported price of USD 31.5 million is onlyUSD 3.5 million higher than what we expect for similar ship type in China.
ACTIVITY LEVELTankers Dry Bulkers Others
Low Low Low
Average Far Eastern Prices
PRICES (mill usd) This Week Last Week Low 2012 High 2012
VLCC 300´dwt 94.0 94.0 94.0 97.0
Suezmax 150´dwt 60.0 60.0 60.0 62.0
Aframax 110´dwt 50.0 50.0 50.0 52.0
Product 47´dwt 34.5 34.5 34.5 36.0
Capesize 180´dwt 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0
Panamax 76´dwt 29.0 29.0 29.0 30.0
Handymax 56´dwt 27.5 27.5 27.5 28.0
NEWBUILDING CONTRACTS
Type No Size Yard Owner Del Mill$ Comm.
BC 5 82000 dwt Oshima NSCSA 2014 31.5
BC 3 57300 dwt STX Dalian Helikon 2014
MT 1 106000 dwt HHI Densa 2013
MARKET BRIEFRate of exchange This Week Last Week Low 2012 High 2012
JPY/USD 83.58 80.85 76.14 83.58
KRW/USD 1128.83 1125.12 1115.75 1158.78
NOK/USD 5.79 5.67 5.54 6.03
USD/EUR 1.31 1.31 1.27 1.34
Interest rate
Eurodollar 12 mnths 1.06 1.05 1.05 1.13
EuroNOK 12 mnths 3.27 3.32 3.25 3.47
Commodity prices
Brent spot (USD) 125.95 122.70 108.98 125.95
Bunker prices
Singapore 180 CST 751.00 746.00 734.00 752.00
380 CST 740.00 735.00 720.00 740.00
Gasoil 1028.00 1006.00 951.00 1028.00
Rotterdam 180 CST 743.00 728.00 688.00 743.00
380 CST 720.00 707.00 663.00 720.00Diesel 1025.00 1003.00 939.00 1025.00
FEARNLEYS AS
P.O BOX 1158 SENTRUM
0107 OSLO
PHONE: + 47 22 93 60 00
www.fearnleys.com
FEARNRESEARCH
[email protected]: 22 93 61 10 FEARNTANK
[email protected]: 22 93 62 48
FEARNBULK
[email protected]: 22 93 62 50 FEARNGAS
[email protected]: 22 93 61 30
FEARNSALE
[email protected]: 22 93 61 50 ADMINISTRATION
Telefax: 22 93 61 20