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www.fearnleys.com   WEEKLY Published by Fearnresearch 14. March 2012  TANKERS CHARTERING Crude Although appearing rather quiet at first glance, things are happening in the VLCC market with charterers picking up tonnage; requirements for the third decade of March are far more plentiful than initially predicted. Un de rs ta nd ably , owners re ma in op ti mi st ic and ar e of feri ng at st ea my numbe rs when approach ed by charterers , particul arly for WAF liftings. April stems have yet to be released, but charterers are already pursuing early April tonnage gi ven the fac t that the posi tio n lis t for the fir st ten days of the month is distinctively thin. Suezmax activity in WAF maintained last week´s mo me nt um, and le ss tonnage is avail abl e to chart ere rs. A go od dea l of Su ez ma x ac ti vi ty in the Caribs and th e USG ha s also helped to ma ke tonnage scarcer, and this could herald further rate improvements. In the Med Sue zmax charte rers also had their pro blems as bad weather duri ng the last few days has contributed to many port delays and limited available tonnage for dates in play. Aframax rates in the Nsea saw a marginal improvement of about 5 ws points in what can only be described as a continuing poor market.  Nonetheles s, a stro ng market for Afram axes in the Med /Bs ea is cau sing a numbe r of Aframaxes to ballast away, and this may eventually improve rates in this area. In the Med/Bsea there was a sig nifi can t increase in char teri ng act ivity , and this, combined wit h rec ent we ath er de lay s, bode s wel l for further rate increases soon. In the Caribs Aframax rates declined by about 20 ws poi nts largely due to a more well -ba lanc ed mark et and enough tonna ge availability. Product West acti vity is aga in mut ed and the lull from last week con tinu es. MRs trad ing T/A are und er con tinu ed pre ssur e, pus hin g rate s down to ws15 7.5 for UKC/USAC basis 37kt. There is still an abundance of available ships on the Cont and we expect rates to keep soft in the near term. Since hitting the  peak last week the LR1s are now following suit with the MRs, pushing rates lower to ws1 22.5 for Balt ic/USAC basis 60k t with the nap hth a arbi trage going east shutting down again as well. Handy- and Flexisizes have seen a steep correction with ice in the Baltic disappearing slowly but surely. Cross- Cont rates are hence weaker at ws165 basis 30kt, and ws215 basis 22kt. The  busiest market seems to be in the USG, with plenty of cargoes still headed for S.America; that being said the arbitrage for going UKC or Med is still closed, keepin g rates in check ws100 basis 38kt. The few positiv e tendencies we saw last week seems to have been short lived and activity has yet again come down. Ra tes rem ain unchange d and LR1s still fixing at ws1 00 for MEG/ JPN voya ge s basis 55kt , and rat es for JET car goes MEG/UKC are estimated to USD 1.7m basis 65kt. Despite a substantial reduction in available LR2s las t wee k, rat es rem ain unchange d at ws85 for MEG/ JPN vo yag es  basis 75kt. Rates for MRs trading SPORE/JPN are estimated to about ws120  basis 30kt, and MRs trading MEG/JPN see rates around ws112 basis 35kt. ACTIVITY LEVEL VLCC Suezmax Aframax P. E. of Suez P. W. of Suez Firm Firmer Mixed Soft Slower  RATES DIRTY (Spot WS) Th is Wee k La st Wee k Low 2012 High 2012 MEG / West VLCC 38.0 34.0 31.0 38.0 MEG / Japan VLCC 63.0 54.5 48.0 64.0 MEG / Singapore 260,000 64.0 55.0 48.0 65.0 WAF / USG 260,000 67.5 60.0 56.5 67.5 WAF / USAC 130,000 85.0 80.0 72.5 92.5 Sidi Kerir / W Me 135,000 90.0 75.0 75.0 110.0  N. Afr / Euromed 80,000 127.5 110.0 80.0 127.5 UK / Cont 80,000 100.0 90.0 85.0 110.0 Caribs / USG 70,000 100.0 110.0 97.5 140.0  CLEAN (Spot WS) MEG / Japan 75,000 85.0 85.0 82.5 90.0 MEG / Japan 55,000 100.0 100.0 97.5 107.5 MEG / Japan 30,000 112.0 110.0 105.0 120.0 Singapore / Japan 30,000 120.0 120.0 115.0 123.0 Baltic T/A 60,000 122.5 135.0 115.0 135.0 UKC-Med / States 37,000 157.5 165.0 140.0 190.0 Caribs / USNH 38,000 150.0 150.0 120.0 185.0  1 YEAR T/C (usd/day) (theoretical) VLCC (modern) 19,500 19,000 17,000 20,000 Suezmax (modern) 16,000 16,000 15,000 16,000 Aframax (modern) 13,500 13,000 12,500 13,500 LR2 105,000 13,500 13,750 13,500 13,750 LR1 80,000 13,000 13,500 13,000 13,500 MR 47,000 13,750 13,750 13,500 13,750 VLCCs fixed all areas last week: 48 previous week: 47 VLCCs avail. in MEG next 30 days: 85 last week: 84 SALE AND PURCHASE Vessel Size  Built Buyer Price  Comm.  Naviga 150 841 1998 Indonesian 16,00 Sub tender  Libyan Galaxy 105 484 2008 Tanker Pacific 36,00 ea ch from arrest QVM Success 105 162 1998 Undisclosed 10,50 Millenium Explorer 102 741 1999 Greek 10,80 Coated DH Peter Zrinski 101 605 1994Greek 8,80 Pacific Bravery 68 967 1999Greek 8,00 Cape Bear 33 540 1997 Indonesian 8,80 Coated Coiled DRY BULK CHARTERING Handy A slig htl y pos itiv e tren d was see n last week in the Atla ntic . Skaw-Pas sero deliveries fixed around USD 3k to US Gulf, while US Gulf deliveres fetched USD 13k for trip s back to the Contin ent . Fron thu al were hoveri ng arou nd USD 13500, while Cannak le deli veri es tick above USD 12k for same. The Pa ci fi c ma rket is fi rmin g up bu t se ems in gene ra l li tt le qu ie te r to da y. Mea nwh ile, Sou th Afri ca rate s are climbin g slig htl y, WC Ind ia/C hin a iron ore rates stil l hov erin g between 13/14 .00 pmt. Red Sea/ Ind ia is stil l at low USD 20´s. Supramax rates remained strong in the east. SE Asia/China-India rates are hovering between usd15/1 6k. Panamax East Coast South America grains could be the joker for the Panamax market in the near future, with rumors of China imports rising to 56 MT this year. Fewe r ball aste rs from the Far East fueled the optimi sm for ESCSA Apr il loaders, where eco vessels now fix above 16k + 600 GBB APS. With some add itio nal fres h min eral cargoes appear ing in the Nort h Atla ntic the T/A rounds are slowly moving up to around 6k on T/C. The Pacific market seems to lose some of the positive momentum caught last week, with lack of fresh carg oes and a growing list of ope n pos itio ns. Level s are in the low/mid 7k ran ge . The forward ma rke t is de scending, aff ected by the overwhe lming sup ply of newbui ldin gs in all segm ents . Mor eov er, rumors and news from str uggl ing own ers ke ep an un der lyi ng we ak sen ti me nt and tra di ng pa ce relatively slow. Capesize The Pacific activity level picked up without actually bringing the rate up. In fac t it fel l ba ck ma rgina lly . In add iti on the rec ent flu rry of shor t pe rio d fixing has also ebbed. It does not help that Sanko are seeking restructuring, a new cyclone is building up off Western Australia, and the Atlantic market is stil l inac tive . The indic es hav e con tinu ed to dro p and the forward paper curve looks a lot like last year´s actual curve, indicating a lack of confidence in the market. ACTIVITY LEVEL Capesize Panamax Handysize Slow Mixed Low RATES CAPESIZE (usd/day, usd/tonne) This Wee k La st We ek Low 2012 Hi gh 2012 TCT Cont/Far East (172´ dwt) 20,200 20,900 19,500 43,000 Tubarao / R.dam (Iron ore) 8.25 8.55 8.25 12.70 Richards Bay/R.dam 8.60 8.70 8.60 11.00  PANAMAX (usd/day, usd/tonne) Transatlantic RV 6,000 4,270 4,250 13,800 TCT Cont / F. East 16,000 14,200 13,950 23,900 TCT F. East / Cont 2,800 TCT F. East RV 7,800 8,850 4,950 9,900 Murmansk b.13-ARA 15/25,000 sc 7.45 7.00 6.95 9.45 Murmansk b.13-L.pool 15/25,000 sc 8.25 7.75 7.70 10.35  HANDYSIZE (usd/day) Atlantic RV 8,100 5,980 5,000 15,100 Pacific RV 11,280 9,600 4,180 11,280 TCT Cont / F. East 12,765 12,000 11,500 23,400  1 YEAR T/C (usd/day) Capesize 150,000 dwt 11,250 11,500 11,000 15,000 Capesize 170,000 dwt 13,250 13,500 13,000 17,000 Panamax 75,000 dwt 11,000 11,500 10,000 12,000 Handysize 53,000 dwt 12,000 11,000 10,000 12,000 Baltic Dry Index (BDI): This Week: 855 Last week: 798 SALE AND PURCHASE Vessel Size  Built Buyer Price  Comm. Paiute 70 293 1995Chinese 10,50 on subs Libre 52 510 2001 Bangladeshi 14,80 Santa Pacifica 28 520 2000 Turkish 10,00 Ikan Sepat 28 503 1984European 3,00 Ocean ID 28 429 1994 Far Eastern 7,80 Siam Jade 27 652 1986C hinese 3,10

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www.fearnleys.com  

 WEEKLY Published by Fearnresearch 14. March 2012

 

TANKERS

CHARTERINGCrudeAlthough appearing rather quiet at first glance, things are happening in theVLCC market with charterers picking up tonnage; requirements for the thirddecade of March are far more plentiful than initially predicted.Understandably, owners remain optimistic and are offering at steamynumbers when approached by charterers, particularly for WAF liftings. Aprilstems have yet to be released, but charterers are already pursuing early Apriltonnage given the fact that the position list for the first ten days of themonth is distinctively thin. Suezmax activity in WAF maintained last week´smomentum, and less tonnage is available to charterers. A good deal of Suezmax activity in the Caribs and the USG has also helped to maketonnage scarcer, and this could herald further rate improvements. In the MedSuezmax charterers also had their problems as bad weather during the lastfew days has contributed to many port delays and limited available tonnagefor dates in play. Aframax rates in the Nsea saw a marginal improvement of about 5 ws points in what can only be described as a continuing poor market. Nonetheless, a strong market for Aframaxes in the Med/Bsea is causing anumber of Aframaxes to ballast away, and this may eventually improve ratesin this area. In the Med/Bsea there was a significant increase in charteringactivity, and this, combined with recent weather delays, bodes well for further rate increases soon. In the Caribs Aframax rates declined by about 20ws points largely due to a more well-balanced market and enough tonnageavailability.ProductWest activity is again muted and the lull from last week continues. MRstrading T/A are under continued pressure, pushing rates down to ws157.5for UKC/USAC basis 37kt. There is still an abundance of available ships onthe Cont and we expect rates to keep soft in the near term. Since hitting the peak last week the LR1s are now following suit with the MRs, pushing rateslower to ws122.5 for Baltic/USAC basis 60kt with the naphtha arbitragegoing east shutting down again as well. Handy- and Flexisizes have seen asteep correction with ice in the Baltic disappearing slowly but surely. Cross-Cont rates are hence weaker at ws165 basis 30kt, and ws215 basis 22kt. The busiest market seems to be in the USG, with plenty of cargoes still headedfor S.America; that being said the arbitrage for going UKC or Med is stillclosed, keeping rates in check ws100 basis 38kt. The few positive tendencieswe saw last week seems to have been short lived and activity has yet againcome down. Rates remain unchanged and LR1s still fixing at ws100 for MEG/JPN voyages basis 55kt, and rates for JET cargoes MEG/UKC areestimated to USD 1.7m basis 65kt. Despite a substantial reduction in availableLR2s last week, rates remain unchanged at ws85 for MEG/JPN voyages basis 75kt. Rates for MRs trading SPORE/JPN are estimated to about ws120

 basis 30kt, and MRs trading MEG/JPN see rates around ws112 basis 35kt.ACTIVITY LEVEL

VLCC Suezmax Aframax P. E. of Suez P. W. of Suez

Firm Firmer Mixed Soft Slower  

RATES

DIRTY (Spot WS)This Week Last Week Low 2012 High 2012

MEG / West VLCC 38.0 34.0 31.0 38.0

MEG / Japan VLCC 63.0 54.5 48.0 64.0

MEG / Singapore 260,000 64.0 55.0 48.0 65.0

WAF / USG 260,000 67.5 60.0 56.5 67.5

WAF / USAC 130,000 85.0 80.0 72.5 92.5

Sidi Kerir / W Me 135,000 90.0 75.0 75.0 110.0

 N. Afr / Euromed 80,000 127.5 110.0 80.0 127.5

UK / Cont 80,000 100.0 90.0 85.0 110.0

Caribs / USG 70,000 100.0 110.0 97.5 140.0

 

CLEAN (Spot WS)MEG / Japan 75,000 85.0 85.0 82.5 90.0

MEG / Japan 55,000 100.0 100.0 97.5 107.5

MEG / Japan 30,000 112.0 110.0 105.0 120.0

Singapore / Japan 30,000 120.0 120.0 115.0 123.0

Baltic T/A 60,000 122.5 135.0 115.0 135.0

UKC-Med / States 37,000 157.5 165.0 140.0 190.0

Caribs / USNH 38,000 150.0 150.0 120.0 185.0

 

1 YEAR T/C (usd/day) (theoretical)

VLCC (modern) 19,500 19,000 17,000 20,000

Suezmax (modern) 16,000 16,000 15,000 16,000

Aframax (modern) 13,500 13,000 12,500 13,500

LR2 105,000 13,500 13,750 13,500 13,750

LR1 80,000 13,000 13,500 13,000 13,500

MR 47,000 13,750 13,750 13,500 13,750

VLCCs fixed all areas last week: 48 previous week: 47

VLCCs avail. in MEG next 30 days: 85 last week: 84

SALE AND PURCHASE

Vessel Size   Built Buyer Price   Comm.

 Naviga 150 841 1998 Indonesian 16,00 Sub tender  

Libyan Galaxy 105 484 2008 Tanker Pacific 36,00 e ach from arrest

QVM Success 105 162 1998 Undisclosed 10,50

Millenium Explorer 102 741 1999 Greek 10,80 Coated DH

Peter Zrinski 101 605 1994 Greek 8,80

Pacific Bravery 68 967 1999 Greek 8,00

Cape Bear 33 540 1997 Indonesian 8,80 Coated Coiled

DRY BULK

CHARTERINGHandyA slightly positive trend was seen last week in the Atlantic. Skaw-Passerodeliveries fixed around USD 3k to US Gulf, while US Gulf deliveres fetchedUSD 13k for trips back to the Continent. Fronthual were hovering aroundUSD 13500, while Cannakle deliveries tick above USD 12k for same. ThePacific market is firming up but seems in general little quieter today.Meanwhile, South Africa rates are climbing slightly, WC India/China ironore rates still hovering between 13/14.00 pmt. Red Sea/India is still at lowUSD 20´s. Supramax rates remained strong in the east. SE Asia/China-Indiarates are hovering between usd15/16k.

PanamaxEast Coast South America grains could be the joker for the Panamax marketin the near future, with rumors of China imports rising to 56 MT this year.Fewer ballasters from the Far East fueled the optimism for ESCSA Aprilloaders, where eco vessels now fix above 16k + 600 GBB APS. With someadditional fresh mineral cargoes appearing in the North Atlantic the T/Arounds are slowly moving up to around 6k on T/C. The Pacific market seemsto lose some of the positive momentum caught last week, with lack of freshcargoes and a growing list of open positions. Levels are in the low/mid 7k range. The forward market is descending, affected by the overwhelmingsupply of newbuildings in all segments. Moreover, rumors and news from

struggling owners keep an underlying weak sentiment and trading pacerelatively slow.

CapesizeThe Pacific activity level picked up without actually bringing the rate up. Infact it fell back marginally. In addition the recent flurry of short periodfixing has also ebbed. It does not help that Sanko are seeking restructuring,a new cyclone is building up off Western Australia, and the Atlantic marketis still inactive. The indices have continued to drop and the forward paper curve looks a lot like last year´s actual curve, indicating a lack of confidencein the market.

ACTIVITY LEVELCapesize Panamax Handysize

Slow Mixed Low

RATES

CAPESIZE (usd/day, usd/tonne)This Week Last Week Low 2012 High 2012

TCT Cont/Far East (172´ dwt) 20,200 20,900 19,500 43,000

Tubarao / R.dam (Iron ore) 8.25 8.55 8.25 12.70

Richards Bay/R.dam 8.60 8.70 8.60 11.00

 

PANAMAX (usd/day, usd/tonne)

Transatlantic RV 6,000 4,270 4,250 13,800

TCT Cont / F. East 16,000 14,200 13,950 23,900

TCT F. East / Cont 2,800

TCT F. East RV 7,800 8,850 4,950 9,900

Murmansk b.13-ARA 15/25,000 sc 7.45 7.00 6.95 9.45

Murmansk b.13-L.pool 15/25,000 sc 8.25 7.75 7.70 10.35

 

HANDYSIZE (usd/day)

Atlantic RV 8,100 5,980 5,000 15,100

Pacific RV 11,280 9,600 4,180 11,280

TCT Cont / F. East 12,765 12,000 11,500 23,400

 

1 YEAR T/C (usd/day)

Capesize 150,000 dwt 11,250 11,500 11,000 15,000

Capesize 170,000 dwt 13,250 13,500 13,000 17,000

Panamax 75,000 dwt 11,000 11,500 10,000 12,000

Handysize 53,000 dwt 12,000 11,000 10,000 12,000

Baltic Dry Index (BDI): This Week: 855 Last week: 798

SALE AND PURCHASE

Vessel Size   Built Buyer Price   Comm.

Paiute 70 293 1995 Chinese 10,50 on subs

Libre 52 510 2001 Bangladeshi 14,80

Santa Pacifica 28 520 2000 Turkish 10,00

Ikan Sepat 28 503 1984 European 3,00

Ocean ID 28 429 1994 Far Eastern 7,80

Siam Jade 27 652 1986 Chinese 3,10

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Fearnleys Weekly Report 14. March 2012  Published by Fearnresearch

GAS

CHARTERINGThe VLGC spot market has gone through another uninspiring week characterized by low activity, little change in freight rates and a BalticVLGC index coming off in small increments every day. There are not toomany prompt VLGCs at all, but the problem is they outnumber theremaining March cargoes in need of freight. The true VLGC market has notreally been tested in the last week, but we assume it is somewhere in themid USD 40´s basis 1:1 Ras Tanura/Chiba - a number equal to around USD12,000 per day on a modern VLGC and recent HFO prices. It is not crystalclear what we can expect ahead, lack of activity and initiatives should intheory put rates further down in the East, but at the same time currentnumbers are not far off OPEX and therefore a further noticeable reductionwould be very surprising. The fashion of taking western origin cargoes easthas come to an end for now as the fob/cfr delta is too low, nonetheless weexpect that quite a few of those vessels enroute to the East from the West willhead back into the chartering-wise tighter western hemisphere.

ACTIVITY LEVELCOASTER 15-23,000 cbm 82,000 cbm

Moderate Strong Low

RATES

SPOT MARKET (usd/month***)This Week Last Week Low 2012 High 2012

82.000 cbm / FR 385,000 395,000 185,000 410,000

57.000 cbm / FR 900,000 900,000 725,000 900,000

35.600 cbm / FR 875,000 875,000 750,000 875,000

20.000 cbm / SR* 790,000 790,000 740,000 790,000

10.000 cbm ETH** 620,000 620,000 580,000 620,0006.500 cbm / SR 500,000 520,000 470,000 520,000

COASTER Europe 300,000 310,000 245,000 310,000

COASTER Asia 240,000 240,000 235,000 240,000

* 20,000 cbm s/r reflects average spot market, LPG and Petchems (segment 15,000 /23,000 cbm)

** 10,000 cbm eth reflects average spot market, Petchems and LPG (segment 8,200 /12,500 cbm)

*** Excl. waiting time, if any

 

LNG

SPOT MARKET (usd/day)This Week Last Week Low 2012 High 2012

East of Suez 138-145´cbm 121,000 120,000 120,000 150,000

West of Suez 138-145´cbm 125,000 125,000 125,000 150,000

1 yr TC 138-145´cbm 150,000 148,000 148,000 158,000

 

LPG/FOB prices (usd/tonne) Propane Butane ISO

FOB North Sea / ANSI 1104.00 1004.50Saudi Arabia / CP 1230.00 1180.00

MT Belvieu (US Gulf) 658.28 882.35 979.25

Sonatrach : Bethioua 1160.00 1100.00

SALE AND PURCHASE

Vessel Cbm   Type Built Buyers Price   Misc

 No reportable sales this week 

DEMOLITION

Vessels sold for demolition

  VLCC/VLOO SUEZMAX CAPE/OBO

Year to date 2012: 5 5 9

Year to date 2011: 3 1 17

2011 total: 14 6 65

SOLD FOR DEMOLITIONVessel name Size Ldt   Built Buyer Price

BC Northgate 179 422 23 102 1984 Chinese 438

OBO Trust Integrity 96 027 15 136 1992 Bangladeshi 470

MT Smooth Hound 84 040 21 290 1993 Pakistani 505

CONT Aramis 43 198 14 342 1984 Chinese 425

BC Mohawk Princess 40 300 8 196 1982 Indian 485

BC Karmen 38 135 9 359 1983 Indian 480

CONT Cape Race 35 071 13 496 1993 Indian 490

BC Aspen Arrow 28 030 8 603 1985 Chinese 432

CONT Theraps 20 270 6 851 1992 Indian 513

GC Professor Barabanov

19 943 10 816 1983 Indian 485

GC Eastern Carrier 14 930 67 776 1985 Chinese 438

LPG Maregas 7 656 3 642 1983 Indian 640

NEWBUILDING

GENERAL COMMENTA total of 9 newbuildings reported this week, 5 of which are Kamsarmax placed by NSCSA at Oshima. The reported price of USD 31.5 million is onlyUSD 3.5 million higher than what we expect for similar ship type in China.

ACTIVITY LEVELTankers Dry Bulkers Others

Low Low Low

Average Far Eastern Prices

PRICES (mill usd) This Week Last Week Low 2012 High 2012

VLCC 300´dwt 94.0 94.0 94.0 97.0

Suezmax 150´dwt 60.0 60.0 60.0 62.0

Aframax 110´dwt 50.0 50.0 50.0 52.0

Product 47´dwt 34.5 34.5 34.5 36.0

Capesize 180´dwt 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0

Panamax 76´dwt 29.0 29.0 29.0 30.0

Handymax 56´dwt 27.5 27.5 27.5 28.0

NEWBUILDING CONTRACTS

Type No Size   Yard Owner Del Mill$   Comm.

BC 5 82000 dwt Oshima NSCSA 2014 31.5

BC 3 57300 dwt STX Dalian Helikon 2014

MT 1 106000 dwt HHI Densa 2013

MARKET BRIEFRate of exchange This Week Last Week Low 2012 High 2012

JPY/USD 83.58 80.85 76.14 83.58

KRW/USD 1128.83 1125.12 1115.75 1158.78

 NOK/USD 5.79 5.67 5.54 6.03

USD/EUR 1.31 1.31 1.27 1.34

Interest rate

Eurodollar 12 mnths 1.06 1.05 1.05 1.13

EuroNOK 12 mnths 3.27 3.32 3.25 3.47

Commodity prices

Brent spot (USD) 125.95 122.70 108.98 125.95

Bunker prices

Singapore 180 CST 751.00 746.00 734.00 752.00

380 CST 740.00 735.00 720.00 740.00

Gasoil 1028.00 1006.00 951.00 1028.00

Rotterdam 180 CST 743.00 728.00 688.00 743.00

380 CST 720.00 707.00 663.00 720.00Diesel 1025.00 1003.00 939.00 1025.00

 

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