FWThursdayMarketsReport08Sep2011

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September 8, 2011 / Volume 25 / Number 22

September 8, 2011 Click on the section heading to jump to that section

UREA NITRATES & AS AMMONIA

Uncertainty over Chinese exports boosts urea prices

Yara to post French AN prices shortly

Prices surge to possible point of overheating

Helwan secures improved netback

US barge prices move higher

FSU nitrates marginally weaker

Abu Qir UAN moderately higher

FSU asking-prices up sharply

Far East numbers follow lead

PHOSPHATES POTASH SULPHUR & H2SO

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Indian DAP spot purchase wakes up sleepy market

Market focus shifts towards Q4 business

Adnoc issues September price at $220/mt FOB Ruwais

Indian buyer books DAP $683/mt CFR

US sale to L. America at $660/mt FOB

SE Asia: $25/mt hike set to be accepted

K+S yet to post Q4 pricing in Europe

FACT to award tender at $245/mt CFR

Noracid down until mid-September

PRICE INDICATORS

Product This week Last Week Week Change

UREA

FOB Black Sea 500 - 510 488 - 495 13.5

FOB Baltic Sea 490 - 495 478 - 495 6.0

FOB Middle East (prilled)* 510 - 515 502 - 510 6.5

FOB Middle East (granular) 505 - 527 502 - 515 7.5

FOB China (prilled) † 495 - 505 495 - 505 =

FOB New Orleans granular (st) 507 - 512 502 - 507 5.0

AMMONIA

FOB Black Sea 555 - 570 555 - 555 7.5

FOB Middle East – spot 545 - 550 535 - 545 7.5

CFR US Gulf 590 - 590 590 - 590 =

CFR Tampa 590 - 590 590 - 590 =

AMMONIUM NITRATE

FOB Black Sea 310 - 320 315 - 320 -2.5

UAN

FOB Black Sea 32% 320 - 335 325 - 340 -5.0

FOT Rouen 30% (€/mt) 245 - 250 243 - 248 2.0

DAP

FOB Tampa/US Gulf 650 - 660 625 - 655 15.0

FOB Baltic/Black Sea 690 - 695 690 - 695 =

FOB Morocco 698 - 707 698 - 705 1.0

FOB Saudi Arabia 685 - 685 690 - 700 -10.0

FOB China †† 645 - 650 630 - 640 12.5

CFR India 677 - 683 677 - 677 3.0

Legend: * indicative; ** revised; *** no recent business; † 40-42% export tax; †† 24-25% export tax

PRICE TRENDS

Full Price Assessments

Freight Indications

FIS Cash Settled Swaps

PHOSPHATES

Click on the heading to jump to that section

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$/mt Urea: key price benchmarks

FOB Black Sea prills FOB Middle East granular FOB New Orleans granular - barge (st)

Click on the graph to jump to that section

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Urea

Uncertainty over Chinese

exports boosts prices

Exports from China continue, but uncertainty over the central

government’s intentions on a possible revision of the low-tax

export window serves to dampen seller enthusiasm. Regional

business nevertheless continues to be dominated by Chinese

product, offering little or no room to material from other

origins. This was again evident in the September 6 Namhae

tender in South Korea for 20,000 mt granular urea that

resulted in a sale of Chinese granular around an even

$530s/mt CFR.

The September 7 sales tender by Helwan for a granular

cargo for end-September loading resulted in an award to

Trammo at $550/mt FOB. The price was up by a more than

$4/mt on Trammo’s purchase from MOPCO ahead of Eid

celebrations, reflecting continued trader belief in a firm

forward market. The sale followed deals concluded by PIC,

Fertil and Qafco with traders/marketers for granular urea at

$525/mt FOB in recent days. Higher bids were also reported.

The recent purchases are likely heading for markets west of

Suez, given competition in markets east of Suez at numbers

reflecting substantially lower netbacks.

Inland prices in the US are starting to creep up to support

higher values in the barge market. Nevertheless, the barge

market remains well south of recent replacement values out of

Egypt and the Middle East. Opportunities to make spot

imports pay may however start to emerge on the US East

Coast, given that truck market’s premium of as much as $25/s

to barge values. Buyers along the Arkansas River are finding

the highest truck prices in the US currently, and they typically

need to enter the market first. However, other parts of the

Southern Plains region, notably Texas have experienced

brutal heat threatening both the current crop and expectations

for winter wheat acres.

Quotes for prills from the FSU are in a wide $505-520/mt

FOB range from the Black Sea and the Baltic. Yuzhnyy prills

were up further via a sale at $510/mt FOB at midweek. Trader

interest is also evident in the Baltic but buyers have yet to

concede numbers above the $500/mt FOB marker.

Highlights of the week

Helwan secures further improvement in netbacks

via $550/mt FOB sale to Trammo.

NF Trading books prilled urea for October loading

at $510/mt FOB with trader adding length.

US barge prices at New Orleans rebound above

the $510/st FOB marker.

Middle East producers dispose of September and

October length to traders in sales at $525/mt FOB.

Higher bids are subsequently rejected.

Chinese export volumes decline as sellers’

concern over change in export window grows.

Short-term outlook

The relatively limited 560,000 mt procured by IPL via the

August 26 tender will shorten the gap until the next Indian

trading session, which could then coincide with added

demand from Pakistan and Bangladesh. This potential

development will aid sellers’ efforts to secure improved

netbacks in coming weeks, and some traders are already

adding length in anticipation thereof. Some spot weakness

is nevertheless evident in certain quarters for prills.

The outlook is also firm for granular as evidenced via

forward purchases made this week from Egypt and the

Middle East. Limited residual availability from Iran and

China for India for October loading enhances prospects of

price-improvement in the next Indian tender, and the US

market appears poised for further gains in barge values.

300

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$/mt Urea: key price benchmarks

FOB Black Sea prills FOB Middle East granular FOB New Orleans granular - barge (st)

The above chart was taken from www.fertilizerweek.com. If you wish to

access these charts directly or obtain the weekly price data that makes

up the charts, call Julie Cunningham on +44 20 7903 2150.

http://www.fertilizerweek.com/

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Urea Tender Update

SUMMARY OF KEY UREA TENDERS - AUGUST - SEPTEMBER 2011

Importer Country

Quantity (mt)

Closing date

Ship-ment

Comments

Min of Agri

Sri Lanka

24,000 P

Bagged

Sept 24 Nov To be available for

Dec distribution.

AICL

Nepal 30,000 P Bagged

Sept 7 60-80 days from LC

Details of offers CFRLO or DEL AICL warehouses

awaited.

Helwan

Egypt

Sales tender

25,000 G Nominal

Sep 7 Sep/early Oct

Booked full cargo with Trammo at

$550/mt FOB.

Namhae

South Korea 20,000 G 10,000 P

Sep 6 Sep Liven books 5,000 mt prills in low

$520s/mt CFR. Granular booked by trader around $530/mt CFR.

PetroVnam

Vietnam 20-25,000 P

Sep 5 Sep Booked by Liven at $532/mt CFR.

Monomeros

Colombia

15-18,000 G

Aug 31 Sep Booked by Helm at

abt $579/mt CFR.

Pusri Holding

Indonesia

Sales tender

20-40,000 G Ex Kaltim

Aug 26 Sep/Oct Awarded 30,000 mt to Indagro and

10,000 mt to Interfame at $521.50/mt FOB.

IPL

India

Unspecified Aug 26 Sept-Oct Awards totalled

560,000 mt at $518/mt basis CFR Mundra. Offers totalled 2.6 million

mt.

MOPCO

Egypt

Sales tender

25,000 G Nominal

Aug 24 Sep 15-25

Booked full cargo with Trammo at

$545.75/mt FOB.

Pusri Holding

Indonesia

Sales tender

50,000 G 30,000 P 10,000 P

Aug 19 Sep FOB Sales concluded:

Kaltim $506.50/mt Pusri $499.50/mt Gresik $511.50/mt

MOPCO

Egypt Sales tender

25,000 G

Nominal

Aug 17 Sep Booked full cargo

with Trammo at $513/mt FOB.

MoARD/AISE

Ethiopia

550,000 P/G

+/- 20%

Aug 16 Sept

2010- May 2012

Tender scrapped.

Re-tender uncertain. Direct negots preferred.

BCIC

Bangladesh 100,000 G

Aug 16 45 days from LC

Awards pending.

BCIC

Bangladesh 100,000 P

Aug 16 45 days from LC

Awards pending.

Min of Agri Sri Lanka

24,000 P Bagged

Aug 15 Oct Awarded to ETA and Valency at offered prices.

Highlighted comments =Changes since last report in prior tenders P =Prills G=Granular TBA=To Be Announced

FSU

BLACK SEA: Activity in the Black Sea was relatively

subdued in the early part of the week, mainly on limited

residual availability for September/October. Offers from

most marketers were around $510/mt FOB, but select

suppliers were indicating requirement for netbacks closer to

$520/mt FOB. The highest sale posted was initially

concluded at an even $500/mt FOB, but NF subsequently

indicated that a September 7 deal was struck with a trader

adding length at $510/mt FOB, well above bids to KuAz.

September shipments and firm nominations from

Yuzhnyy are largely unchanged from last week around

230,000 mt:

SEPTEMBER 2011:

Vessel Quantity Trader Destination Status

Baltic Wind 32,974 Indagro Brazil Sailed 03 Sep

Wrestler (1) 24,838 Fitco Brazil Sailed 04 Sep

Kiran A. (2) 49,122 Helm India (Mundra) Sailed 05 Sep

Eugenia B (3) 44,200 Keytrade Pakistan Under loading Sailing 10 Sep

Optima 22,000 Helm Ivory Coast / Senegal

Eta 10 Sep

Good Wish(4) 50,000 Toepfer India Eta 12/16 Sep

Tasman ID (5) 5,397 Keytrade TBN Eta 16/18 Sep

Total 228,531 (1) cargo fm TIS – 9,030t Gorlovka (prilled) + 9,298t Cherkassy + + 6,510t Severodonetsk (2) incl. cargo fm TIS – 13,461t Salavat + 11,367t DneproAzot

(3) incl. cargo fm TIS – 10,000t Salavat + 10,750t Kuybishev (4) cargo fm TIS – Gorlovka (prilled) + Cherkassy (5) cargo fm TIS + 15,000t NPK Sumykhimprom

BALTIC SEA: Ameropa is linked with the purchase of

25,000 mt prills pursuant to the September 6 Grodno sales

tender for the same volume. The cargo was booked around

$480/mt DAF for a $496/mt FOB Klaipeda equivalent.

Quotes for residual October availability from other

producers are above $500/mt FOB with claims of repeat

sales at that number. Recent sales in Brazil below $520/mt

CFR are indicative of netbacks in the $480s/mt FOB, but

subsequent offers to Brazilian importers reflect returns

closer to $500/mt FOB.

As was reported in the September 2 FW Extra Update,

Ameropa confirmed that a purchase of a full cargo from

Phosagro was made August 31 in the upper $470s/mt FOB

for an indicative $478-495/mt FOB Baltic range last week.

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Europe

TURKEY: Kastamonu scrapped its September 7 tender for

2x3,000 mt prills and covered the requirement from Turkish

inventories.

Middle East & Africa

MIDDLE EAST: Producers are aiming well above the

recent sales at $525/mt FOB to traders, despite the significant

slowdown in shipments to key contract markets such as

Thailand. Four sales for September and October lifting were

concluded for about 100,000 mt with Ameropa, Helm and Yara

by PIC, Fertil and Qafco.. The destinations for the cargoes are

yet to be identified, but the parcels would appear to be

heading for markets west of Suez unless prices in markets

east of the Canal improve substantially.

Sabic indicated that a bid from a trader some $2-3/mt

above the deals concluded had been rejected. Overall

bullishness persists, and firm offers for limited additional spot

availability are not available. Sabic is shipping 20,000 mt urea

to South Africa in combination with 5,000 mt Ma’aden DAP for

Profert.

Returns on US business are up further on last week.

Trades around $512/st FOB reflect delivered values close to

$560/mt CFR Mississippi River for a $522-525/mt FOB

netback to producers dependent on freight coverage in the

spot market.

EGYPT: MOPCO booked 25,000 mt with Trammo at

$550/mt FOB in its September 7 sales tender for 25,000 mt for

end-September/early October loading. The price was up by

more than $4/mt on the trader’s $545.75/mt FOB purchase

from MOPCO via that producer’s August 24 sales tender.

ETHIOPIA: AISE/MoARD has further delayed its revised

urea tender that had been expected to call for offers for 250-

300,000 mt rather than the 550,000 mt originally tendered for

in the scrapped the August 16 sessions. Local reports now

suggest that the Ministry of Agriculture elected to pursue

direct negotiations with producers to procure the quantity

required, rather than involving traders via the tender-

procedure initially applied.

Indian Subcontinent

INDIA: IPL purchases totalling about 560,000 mt

pursuant to the August 26 tender are termed insufficient to

cover demand for imports for loading through October. A

further tender is expected to be floated by another

canalising agency by the end of September.

PAKISTAN: TCP is expected to issue a further tender

for urea shortly, but the quantity is yet to be identified. The

importer is also in discussions with Sabic as the 190,000 mt

procured from Trammo, Keytrade and Helm are termed

insufficient to cover the current shortfall.

SRI LANKA: A Ministry of Agriculture tender for 24,000

mt bagged urea for December distribution closes

September 22.

NEPAL: Details of offers submitted in the September 7

AICL tender for 30,000 mt urea were not available at press

time.

BANGLADESH: BCIC did still not confirm purchases

with traders that offered a total of 362,500 mt in the August

16 tenders for granular and prilled urea. A final decision on

buying or possible scrapping of the tenders is expected to

emerge shortly. New tenders for 100,000 mt each prilled

and granular are planned for late September and further

sessions are likely to ensue by mid-October.

Asia

CHINA: Domestic prices were up this week in Northern

provinces. Quotes for prompt positions were up by RMB

50-70/mt to RMB 2,170-2,200/mt FOT ex factory gate. The

increase ensued on the back of substantial buying from

distributors at last week’s low quotes around an even RMB

2,100/mt FOT. The market was particularly active in Henan,

Jiangsu and Anhui.

Part of the surge in activity and prices was also linked to

traders’ concerns over the early closing of the low-tax

export window as some buyers rushed to accumulate

positions for bonded warehousing for later export.

Speculation on revised dates for the low tax-window for

exports of urea from China continues unabated.

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Clarity on the issue is not expected before next week

following a meeting at ministerial level. Suggestions from

some sources are that the window originally set to expire

October 31 will be shortened by 15 days, for the 110% tax to

apply from October 16. The more pessimistic view from a

Chinese producer standpoint is that the low export tax will only

apply through September 30.

There is no indication available at this stage with regard to

permissions of continued exports via bonded facilities after the

lower tax-window ends. As was indicated in the September 2

Extra Update, exports via bonded warehouses for the three

months following the December 1, 2010 reintroduction of the

110% export tax amounted to about 2 million mt at the low tax

rate.

THAILAND: Demand for granular urea remains marred by

extensive flooding and low domestic prices. Contract cargoes

from Middle East and Malaysia have been postponed or

cancelled outright. Prospects for a revival in activity in the

short term appear remote.

VIETNAM: Vietnamese buying continues with pricing

reported in an extreme $505-532/mt CFR spread. Daewoo is

linked with sales of 2x6,000 mt parcels of Chinese prills to

Vinacam while the Liven deal for 20-25,000 mt prills from

China with PetroVietnam at $532/mt CFR is also confirmed.

Two versions on PetroVietnam’s rejection of the lowest

$529/mt CFR offer in the September 5 tender circulate locally.

Some observers suggest the offer that specified PIM as an

alternative origin was rejected due to the relatively small prills

normally supplied by the Indonesian manufacturer. Others

continue to indicate that an option to supply Iranian material

rendered the deal unacceptable to the importer.

INDONESIA: Pusri Holding is yet to announce additional

tenders following the August 26 session that resulted in sales

of 40,000 mt granular at $521.50/mt FOB Bontang.

SOUTH KOREA: Namhae booked a mere 5,000 mt

uncoated prilled urea from China with Liven around $525/mt

CFR. The importer reportedly succeeded in covering 15-

20,000 mt granular product with a trader around an even

$530/mt CFR. The identity of the seller of the granular urea

was not revealed.

Americas

NEW ORLEANS: Suppliers started the week with offers

at $510/st FOB New Orleans for granular urea, but have

succeeded in moving prompt sales as high as $512/st FOB

and offers late September 7 were at $515/st FOB.

Suppliers are aiming to complete more enduser business,

citing higher values in some inland truck markets.

US MIDWEST: Warehouse prices for granular urea

from across most of the region vary from $530-540/st FOB.

Activity is seasonally thin, and these prices have not been

tested among retailers.

US SOUTHERN PLAINS: Effective September 3,

Koch Nitrogen raised its posting for granular urea from its

Enid OK plant to $540/st FOB.

CANADA: Keytrade is linked with a further sale of 18-

25,000 mt granular urea late last week. The deal was likely

booked with Sylvite possibly for partial delivery into the St.

Lawrence Seaway. The price indicated in the deal was in

line with recent sales around the $580/mt CFR marker.

While the source of the product yet to confirmed, the

tonnage will likely emanate from an offshore position rather

than being delivered from CF Industries’ production.

MEXICO: A group of buyers on the East Coast are

soliciting offers for 20,000 mt prills in combination with 5-

6,000 mt NPK 16-16-16. The urea would need to be priced

well into the $540s/mt CFR Altamira and Vera Cruz to

reflect recent FSU replacement values.

BRAZIL: Prills off incoming vessels traded at $518-

523/mt CFR, largely at par with last week. Offers for full

cargoes for forward delivery are in the mid $530s/mt CFR,

but buyers appear hesitant to book additional cargoes. The

premium for granular urea is also considered excessive by

most buyers. Offers for coarse grade are rapidly

approaching $570/mt CFR, but trades are reported as low

as $556-557/mt CFR. Keytrade will ship a prior sale to

Bunge from Fudao/China.

CHILE: Ameropa is in the freight market for a cargo of

granular from Fudao/China to Chile in September laydays.

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UAN

Abu Qir secures improved netback September 5 Abu Qir achieved part of the improvement targeted in the September 5 tender to sell 20,000 mt UAN-32 for prompt

loading. The sale to Gavilon at $335/mt FOB was up by $4/mt

on the August deal, also to Gavilon.

Romanian and Baltic suppliers claim substantially higher

netbacks in the $540s/mt FOB. Dutiable (for the EU) FSU

remains stable around $330/mt FOB from the Black Sea.

Americas

NEW ORLEANS: September spot availability from CF

Industries’ and PotashCorp’s Louisiana plants is spoken for,

and expectations are that October tons will be quoted at

$355/st FOB for UAN-32.

US MIDWEST: Suppliers are trying to inch UAN prices

higher, especially west of the Mississippi River, but many are

in the position of trying to resell their own forward purchases

that have not been delivered yet by producers. Quotes from

Iowa, Missouri, Illinois, Indiana and Ohio generally are $12.30-

12.35/unit FOB, although reports of some lower priced trade

east of the Mississippi River are popping up.

Ammonium Nitrate/CAN

Yara yet to follow GPN in posting French AN Yara is yet to provide clients in France with updated prices

for ammonium nitrate and CAN, but a revised posting is

expected shortly.

FSU producers of AN and CAN maintain a bullish stance

in key markets. AN from the Black Sea is on offer around

$340/mt FOB while CAN is indicated available a mere

$10/mt lower. Bids are so far substantially below the targets

identified, but suppliers appear unwilling to provide price-

concessions to stimulate sales.

FSU

BLACK SEA: Promophos has nominated a vessel to

load Rovno CAN from TIS in September, likely planned for

France:

SEPTEMBER 2011: Vessel Quantity Trader Destination Status

Iohann

Mahmastal

6,600 Promophos SAL

Europe Eta 11/13 Sep

Total 6,600

Europe

FRANCE: Yara is expected to post revised prices for

September for ammonium nitrate and CAN in France later

this week after GPN took the lead last week, posting

September AN at €340/mt DEL.

TURKEY: Igsas booked 6-12,000 mt ammonium nitrate

in its tender this week for 10-12,000 mt with Korfert. The

tonnage emanates from a prior position, and the deal is

understood to have been closed in the upper $340s/mt

CFR for the South, including 180 days for a netback

marginally below $320/mt FOB. The importer also

requested offers for a similar quantity of ammonium

sulphate. (See below).

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Ammonium Sulphate

FSU producers aim higher on increased demand KuybishevAzot was seeking netbacks for its ammonium

sulphate above $230/mt FOB in negotiations this week, up

by more than $6/mt on most recent sales. Demand is

relatively firm and buyers in nearby markets such as Turkey

have been facing similar increases in asking-prices for

white crystalline product and for coke-oven grade material.

In addition to the large parcel scheduled for Turkey by

Korfert for September loading as indicated below, the trader

also booked 12,000 mt with Igsas this week at about

$228/mt FOB equivalent. The sale was concluded with 180

days credit in the upper $250s/mt CFR basis Iskenderun.

FSU

BLACK SEA: Korfert has nominated a vessel to load a

total of 35,000 mt white crystalline ammonium sulphate

from Yuzhnyy/TIS with eta mid-September. The full cargo is

heading for Turkey, not east of Suez as originally indicated:

SEPTEMBER 2011: Vessel Quantity Trader Destination Status

B Europa (1) 35,000 Korfert Turkey Eta 12/13 Sep

Total 35,000

(1) 10,000t Cherkassy + 25,000t Kemerovo

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Ammonia

Prices surge to a point where

overheating may be an issue

The relentless surge in ammonia prices continued unabated

this week, with new record 2011 prices posted for several

benchmarks. As has been the case in recent weeks, sources

in the Western Hemisphere are again in the lead, with

confirmed sales substantially above last done. Prices in

markets east of Suez also surged, albeit to a lesser degree

while some observers worry about an overheated global

ammonia market.

Product in the Baltic changed hands at $580/mt FOB, only

to be followed by offers around $600/mt FOB. Asking-prices

from the Black Sea zoomed past bids from traders close to

$570/mt FOB for limited October positions available, and

sellers are now targeting returns in line with most recent

Ventspils sales.

Some traders involved in business referenced to the Tampa

ammonia prices bravely suggest that the October contract will

need to settle close to $650/mt CFR, if not higher.

Shortages persists in Europe and North Africa. OCP is

attempting to secure sufficient product for timely October

arrival, and the imminent return of the balance 50% DAP

capacity still idled in Tunisia will add further demand. Erratic

operations in Algeria and Trinidad, plus turnarounds in Egypt

have added fuel to the fire.

Middle East prices were also up on last week. Limited

additional tonnage was booked for September from PIC by

Mitsui at $550/mt FOB and Sabic indicated returns on contract

volumes priced via formulae in India close to $520/mt FOB.

Scarcity of tonnage in Southeast Asia resulted in major

increases in the delivered value in tender business in

Vietnam. Orica is also likely to have to pay up substantially to

cover requirements through October resulting from the outage

following the incident at its Kooragang Island ammonia unit.

While many traders find it hard to believe that the “coin”

does have a reverse side, it does. Extremely tight availability

is set to ease somewhat going forward, particularly east of

Suez. Qafco V is already operating and volumes for export are

likely to emerge in coming weeks. In Australia, the Burrup

ammonia plant is already operating close to capacity, and

exports from the unit should alleviate some of the sensation of

emergency that prevailed in recent days.


Yara settles limited quantities from Ventspils at

$580/mt FOB. Sellers raise offers for residual

forward availability to $600/mt FOB.

PIC books additional September cargo with Mitsui

at $550/mt FOB, up by $5/mt on last done.

Trammo books a small cargo with OCP, but the

producer still requires substantial October volume.

Middle East product perceived short over next

weeks. Producers seek further price-improvement.

Speculation emerges on massive increase in

Tampa pricing for October.

Short-term outlook

The surge in prices appears set to continue as

September progresses, and the imbalance in supply and

demand may well render further price-increases possible.

Limited availability from FSU suppliers throughout the

month will serve to maintain upwards pressure until full

output is restored is Egypt and Algeria.

Cargo movements from the Middle East as will likely be

required to complement supply from traditional sources for

markets west of Suez will maintain upward pressure on

regional prices and will support demand for higher numbers

to endusers in Southeast Asia. A reversal in pricing

appears unlikely until and unless regular FSU output is

added to the equation together with increased production in

the Middle East and improved regularity at plants in the

Western Hemisphere.

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470

485

500

515

530

545

560

575

590

605

$/mtAmmonia: key price benchmarks

FOB Black Sea FOB Middle East CFR Tampa





9


FSU

BLACK SEA: No new sales of Black Sea ammonia were

concluded since the NF Trading deal for about 15,000 mt with

Trammo as reported in the September 1 Thursday Markets

Report. That cargo was priced at $555/mt FOB. Sellers are

aiming some $15-25/mt higher in recent quotes for limited

residual October availability, and bids close to the $570/mt

FOB marker were rejected.

Firm nominations to date for September are around

130,000 mt. Additional vessels to load in over the month will

likely include the Havis to carry about 39,000 mt for the US for

Nitrochem. Nitrochem will also have the Gas Snapper and the

Gas Grouper arriving Yuzhnyy by the end of the month to load

23,500 mt each. One of these is expected to sail for Belgium

while the other will likely head for Tunisia. The total Yuzhnyy

volume for September is not expected to exceed 230,000 mt

due planned turnarounds and other short-term maintenance:

SEPTEMBER 2011: Vessel Quantity Trader Destination Status Gas Columbia 23,420 Mitsui Finland Sailed 02 Sep

Gas

Snapper

23,303 Nitrochem France Sailed 04 Sep

Pertusola 11,800 Yara Tunisia Sailed 08 Sep

Marigola 11,850 Yara Turkey Arrived 31 Aug

Prins Maurits 12,070 Yara Italy Arrived 08 Sep

Gaschem Bremen

23,400 Nitrochem Belgium Eta 12 Sep

Gas Manta 23,400 Nitrochem Morocco Eta 13 Sep

Total 129,243

BALTIC SEA: Yara is indicated as the buyer for a limited

tonnage from Ventspils at $580/mt FOB. Asking prices for

residual October volumes are now above $600/mt FOB.


ALGERIA: Reports on the performance of the three

indigenous ammonia units vary, depending on the source of

information. Latest news suggests that the Annaba unit is up

and running, but the output is limited to a few hundred tonnes

a day. Arzew has one unit down due to continued technical

problems, while the second unit was set to restart at press

time.

TUNISIA: GCT indicates DAP output at 50% at Gabes and

is aiming to restart the second DAP train shortly.

MOROCCO: OCP covered 15,000 mt from Trammo for

first half October arrival, but is still looking for additional

tonnage. The price in the deal is unknown, but is estimated

well above $600/mt CFR based on recent asking prices

from all sources.

SAUDI ARABIA: Sabic indicates that the parcel loaded

on the Almarona from Mesaieed for Dahej is priced via

formula at $558/mt CFR for a $520/mt netback. The cargo

is part of a swap with Qafco. The producer has a heavy

program for September already in place:

SABIC SEPTEMBER LINE UP

Jag Viraj September 02 Jubail 15,000 Asia

Camberley September 06 Ras Al-Khair 23,000 Far East

Almarona September 07 Mesaieed* 5,000 WC India

Al Barrah September 08 Jubail 23,000 Far East

Rose Gas September 10 Jubail 23,000 SE Asia

Gaschem Pacific September 12 Ras Al-Khair 20,000 US

Gaschem Pacific September 13 Jubail 23,000 US

Al Jabirah September 22 Jubail 23,000 Far East

Almarona September 23 Mesaieed* 10,000 WC India

Total 165,000

*Swap tonnage with Qafco

QATAR: Qafco reports a smooth start-up process at the

Qafco V ammonia unit, and indicates “satisfactory” output

from the unit given the fact that the plant is still in its start-

up phase. Qafco loads the Almarona for Sabic for India

September 7, returning an earlier swap. Some reports

suggest that Qafco VI ammonia output may commence in

Q4, but an early 2012 start-up is considered more likely.

KUWAIT/BAHRAIN: Mitsui is understood to have

increased the volume purchased from PIC to about 20,000

mt via an additional deal for about 11,000 mt at $550/mt

FOB, also for prompt loading.

EGYPT: The EBIC unit is running well despite reports to

the contrary, and the producer is indicating regular output.

10


Indian Subcontinent

INDIA: Following the scrapping of prior sessions, FACT has

issued yet another tender for the import of 7,500 mt ammonia

for delivery to Cochin. The revised tender is set to close at

11:30hrs local time September 12. Offers for the parcel to

arrive Cochin on or before September 25-30 are to remain

valid through September 19.

In prior business on contracts priced via formulae, Sabic

indicates that the parcel loaded on the Almarona from

Mesaieed for Dahej this week is priced via formula at $558/mt

CFR, thereby raising the top end of the Indian CFR contract

range to that number.

The Nisyros will load 15,000 mt Mitco ammonia from

Malaysia September 13-15 for Paradip with 10,000 mt to be

discharged for PPL under the importer’s long term agreement

with CIFC. The vessel thereafter sails for Haldia to discharge

5,000 mt for Tata under Tata’s agreement with Mitco.

The Rose Gas is to load 23,000 mt from Jubail around

September 10. The vessel will first proceed to the Far East to

discharge 8,000 mt to a Sabic contract customer, and will

thereafter proceed to Paradip to discharge 10,000 mt to PPL

under the CIFC agreement. The vessel finally sails for Haldia

to offload the balance 5,000 mt for Tata under the Mitco’s long

term agreement with the importer.

Asia

AUSTRALIA: Mitsui is in discussions for the supply of a

further cargo to Orica for mid-October arrival. The parcel will

follow on the two cargoes booked by the importer with Mitsui

and Trammo in the mid $630s/mt CFR and will likely be priced

substantially higher. The Burrup ammonia unit is operating

close to rated capacity.

VIETNAM: The precise outcome of the September 5

Vinachem/Dinh Vu tender for 6-7,000 mt for mid-October

arrival was not available at press time. Reports of a deal

around $650/mt CFR with a major trader are widely circulated.

Americas

US MIDWEST/NORTHERN POINTS: Agrium’s

September 7 price list for ammonia from Early IA, Garner

IA, Whiting IA and Mankato MN is $800/st FOB. Clay

Center and Conway KS are posted at $785/st FOB and

$780/st FOB respectively. Greenwood and Hoag NE are

posted at $795/st FOB and $790/st FOB respectively.

Similar prices are cited by other suppliers for the Dakotas.

US SOUTHERN PLAINS: Agrium has posted

ammonia from Moscane OK at $775/st FOB, effective

September 7. The company’s Borger TX plant is posted at

$735/st FOB.

CALIFORNIA: Agrium’s Central California postings for

truckloads of ammonia are at $705/st DEL. Northern

California truckloads are quoted at $710/st FOB.

TRINIDAD & TOBAGO: Sources connected with

different ammonia producers are uniformly predicting that

natural gas supplies to individual plants will routinely vary

from 100% to as low as 75%, likely through the end of the

calendar year, while the National Gas Co. works to get its

latest offshore gas platform operating at full speed. At press

time industry sources said Yara’s numbers 1 and 2

ammonia trains were affected, and one or more

PotashCorp units also may have been affected this week,

but confirmation was not available at press time. So far the

gas-related cutbacks have not had a major impact on

downstream nitrogen production from the Helm UAN unit or

from PotashCorp’s urea plant.

Yara’s ammonia export lineup for Brazil from plants here

includes 35,000 mt in September, 34,000 mt in October and

40,000 mt for November.

11


Phosphates

Indian spot DAP purchase wakes up sleepy market The market was taken by surprise following the sale of 40,000

mt DAP for October delivery to an Indian spot buyer $6/mt

above the new established benchmark price in the country.

The cargo is most likely to be lifted from China netting back to

the high $640s/mt FOB.

Phosphate suppliers OCP, JPMC/Jordan and

PhosAgro/Russia are to price their DAP supply contracts for

October-March 2012 deliveries to India at the new $677/mt

CFR. OCP is set to lift one to two panamax cargoes in

September at the prior $612/mt CFR but it might elect to delay

the shipments until October for a higher return in the low

$640s/mt FOB Jorf Lasfar.

DAP/MAP trading continues to move at a steady pace, with

some activity noted in western Europe and Latin America,

where OCP/Morocco has concluded sales totalling 65-70,000

mt DAP, including Italy in the absence of Tunisian product,

and 60,000 mt MAP into Brazil. However, business has largely

been pegged to August pricing, with DAP either side of

$700/mt FOB Jorf Lasfar and MAP sold into Brazil netting

back to $680/mt FOB.

However, the South American market, namely Brazil and

Argentina, is described as saturated at this stage, with

Brazilian ports experiencing severe backlogs and

subsequently soaring demurrage rates. A delay of up to 50

days is reported at one of the largest port, Paranagua.

The domestic US market remains quiet ahead of serious

harvest work, and the export market is thin, discouraging

producers from making new offers for enduser business that

does not need to be satisfied in the near term. To make new

DAP sales in Latin America, exports from the US and

elsewhere need to discharge at $690-695/mt CFR as far south

as Argentina, according to traders.

With regards to MAP, Mosaic has altered its standard

premium for MAP (11-52-0) over DAP to $20/st, after leaving it

at $10/st for the past several years. Domestic traders routinely

have achieved spreads of $20-35/st for for prompt truckloads

and barges of MAP compared to DAP over the last two years.

Ethiopia’s AISE/MoARD has yet to issue its DAP

retender for around 350-400,000 mt bagged DAP. Rumours

suggest AISE is looking to negotiate directly with

international producers such as JPMC/Jordan and

Sabic/MPC/Saudi Arabia.

Notably, Sabic has sold its first Saudi DAP cargo in the

international spot market at $685/mt FOB Ras Al-Khair into

South Africa.

East of Suez, Quantum has sold another Australian DAP

cargo into Bangladesh in the $720s/mt CFR. The sale

finalises Incitec Pivot’s export program for 2011.

Production-wise, GCT has ramped up operations to 50%

of capacity at the Gabes DAP plant. An uncertain output

outlook, outstanding contract commitments and local

domestic demand are likely to keep the Tunisian producer

out of the spot market until the end of 2011.

550

570

590

610

630

650

670

690

710 $/mt DAP: key price benchmarks

FOB Tampa/US Gulf FOB Baltic/Black Sea FOB North Africa

The above chart was taken from www.fertilizerweek.com. If you wish to access these charts directly or obtain the weekly price data that makes up the charts, call Julie Cunningham on +44 20 7903 2150.


Indian spot buyer books DAP at $683/mt CFR;

Rollover on Moroccan September sales into

Europe/Brazil;

US DAP sales to Latin America at $660/mt FOB

Tampa;

Sabic concludes first spot cargo ex-MPC at $685/mt

FOB Ras Al-Khair;

No date yet on Ethiopian DAP tender…;

…AISE looking to negotiate directly with producers;


12


Short-term outlook

The excitement generated by this week’s Indian spot purchase

has the market asking whether there will be more spot

purchases, or whether this was a one-time deal. At press time,

reports from India suggested the deal might have been driven

by production losses due to problem with a phosphoric acid

supply pipeline at one plant. However, if just one cargo’s worth

of DAP were needed to solve a shortfall, it seems more likely

Indian importers could have gone to their contract suppliers to

seek modest volume increases in planned cargos at the

contract price, rather than pay $6/mt more for a spot cargo.

Nevertheless, even if this week’s spot purchase is repeated it

probably is prudent for market watchers to assume this is a

short-term phenomenon addressing a seasonal concern. That is

not to say there will be no impact on other endusers. Buyers for

Ethiopia and Pakistan had hoped to win lower offers from

suppliers, and the prospect of having to outbid India for Chinese

is a bolt out of the blue. In addition to cargos from China, India

could buy spot cargos from Sabic, which is expected to have

one or two cargos to offer in October.

SUMMARY OF DAP/MAP/TSP/PHOSROCK/PHOSACID TENDERS

Importer/ Country

Quantity '000 mt

Closing date

Shipment Period

Comments

NFL India

250 DAP Sep 01 Sep/Oct No offers received.

RCF India

2x 18K mt MAP/DAP

Aug 25 Sep/Oct Award issued for 25K mt MAP 11-44-0 at $590/mt CFR. Two offers received.

RCF India

400 DAP Aug 25 Sep Scrapped. One offer received but unopened.

GSFC India

50 DAP Aug 25 Sep Scrapped. No offers received.

MoARD Ethiopia

750 DAP Aug 16 Sep-Jun Scrapped. Nine offers totalling 2 million mt at $690-833.62/mt CFRLO Djibouti. Retender likely to be held next week for 350-400K mt.

RCF India

100 phosrock 29% P 2O 5

Aug 16 Aug-Sep 50K mt awarded at $126.95/mt CFR for minimum 29% P2O5 content grade. Two offers received/

MoA Sri Lanka

12 TSP

Aug 15 Oct-Nov 18K mt awarded at $573.87/mt CFR with 270 days credit.

MMTC India

195 various NPKs

Jul 28 May onwards

Scrapped. No offers received.

MoA Sri Lanka

12 TSP

Jul 18 Sep-Oct Quantity required awarded at $568.24/mt CFR with 270 days

credit. Four offers totalling 60,000 mt.

RCF India

550 firm 375 option

various NPK

Jul 8 Jul-Oct Scrapped. No offers received.

RCF India

400 DAP Jul 7 Jul-Sep No offers received. Re-tender for 400K mt DAP July 29. 70 DAP/MAP Sep-Feb

RCF

India

550 firm

375 option various NPK

Jun 21 Jul-Oct No offers. Re-tender July 8.

RCF India

400 DAP Jun 16 Jun-Sep No offers received. Re-tender July 7. 70 DAP/MAP Sep-Feb

ASSC Iran

180 TSP

Jun 15 Jul-Aug Two offers at €510s/mt FOB ex-China and €520/mt FOB ex-Bulgaria. Awards yet to be issued.

New entries in bold; TBC= to be confirmed

13


Europe

ITALY: Buyers have booked around 15-20,000 mt Moroccan

DAP at $705-707/mt FOB Jorf Lasfar in the absence of

Tunisian tonnes in the market, as GCT, the traditional supplier

to the country, has been plagued by a number of production

stoppages during the eight months of 2011. The Tunisian

producer’s contract commitments in Turkey continue to take

precedence over spot business.

TURKEY: Gubretas so far has received around 60,000 mt

Tunisian DAP during June-August under its contract for

120,000 mt with GCT agreed in May at $615/mt FOB Gabes.

Production issues at the Tunisian producer’s DAP plant have

resulted in severe delays in the shipment schedule.


MOROCCO: OCP has concluded sales totalling 60,000 mt

of MAP 11-54-0 for September lifting with its joint-venture

partners in Brazil netting back to around $680/mt FOB Jorf

Lasfar basis 11-52-0.

It has sold 15-20,000 mt Moroccan DAP at $705-707/mt

FOB Jorf Lasfar into Italy following sales to other European

markets at $698-705/mt FOB, which compares with August

business at $695-700/mt FOB. It has allocated 80,000 mt DAP

for September shipment for Europe. It is estimated to have

sold so far around 65-70,000 mt into the region. It is

understood that Italy requires 30-40,000 mt, France 20,000

mt, Spain 10-15,000 mt and UK 8,000 mt.

The Moroccan producer plans to ship 25,000 mt to

Bangladesh under price formula in September. It also will load

30,000 mt MAP 11-52-0 for Koch in the US in September –

the cargo was originally scheduled to be lifted in August.

OCP has yet to confirm whether it will load one to two

panamax cargoes of 50-55,000 mt DAP for its contract

customers Zuari/PPL, Chambal and Tata in India. It is

understood that the contract cargoes loading in October will

be priced at the new benchmark set by PhosChem at $677/mt

CFR for an estimated return in the low $640s/mt FOB Jorf

Lasfar.

SAUDI ARABIA: Sabic has sold 5,000 mt DAP ex-

MPC for early October shipment to Profert in South Africa

at $685/mt FOB Ras Al-Khair in combination with 20,000 mt

urea.

Sabic plans to load its second shipment end of

September to its term customer Zuari in India. It shipped

24,415 mt of DAP on the Taba arriving August 25 at Kandla

(see shipping schedule under India update further below).

Sabic’s contract commitments in India total 600,000 mt of

DAP ex-MPC for August-March 2012 shipment with buyers

IPL, IFFCO and Zuari. It is understood that the tonnes

shipped October onwards will be priced at the new

benchmark of $677/mt CFR for an estimated netback in the

low $660s/mt FOB.

MPC continues to gradually ramp up DAP production.

Once fully operational, DAP capacity is expected to reach 3

million mt/year.

TUNISIA: GCT is now running one of its two DAP

production lines close to capacity. The Gabes plant has a

designed monthly capacity of 110,000 mt DAP. The M´dhilla

TSP plant is running normally. The Tunisian producer is

looking to restart the second DAP train at Gabes and the

TSP plant at Sfax over the coming days. Production was

halted August 2, with operations restarting August 26.

The Tunisian producer is scheduled to ship around 60,000

mt to Turkey over the coming weeks. Outstanding shipments

are estimated at around 75-80,000 mt DAP for both Turkey

and Italy.

GCT is likely to have limited export availability in the fourth

quarter given its contract commitments and domestic demand

amid an unstable production outlook.

ETHIOPIA: AISE/MoARD had yet at press time to issue

its DAP retender following the scrapping of its earlier

tender. The revised session is expected to call for 350-

400,000 mt bagged DAP for delivery at Djibouti during

November through January 2012 rather than the original

750,000 mt in the August 16 tender. There are rumours that

AISE is looking to negotiate directly with potential suppliers,

namely producers JPMC/Jordan and Sabic/MPC/Saudi

Arabia.

14


Indian Subcontinent

INDIA: Trammo and an undisclosed buyer shocked the

phosphate market this week with a spot deal for 40,000 mt of

DAP at $683/mt CFR for delivery during October. The price is

$6/mt above the benchmark contract price reached between

PhosChem and other major players supplying key Indian

importers for October-March delivery. The product will almost

certainly load from China, although the trader has the option

of shipping from the US. Assuming the cargo loads from

China, the return to the seller would be in the high $640s/mt

FOB. The $6/mt spread above India’s contract price

essentially would eliminate any margin to the buyer. While the

importer had not been identified at press time, there was

speculation the player is Zuari at Goa. Zuari’s DAP plant at

Goa was shut down recently by government order due to

phosphoric acid pipeline problems.

Phosphate suppliers OCP, JPMC and PhosAgro’s price

agreements for contract DAP cargoes loading for India

starting in October through March are adjusted to $677/mt

CFR, based on the PhosChem agreement reported last week,

according to local sources. OCP may still lift one or two

cargos in September for term buyers Zuari/PPL, Chambal and

Tata, however, under the prior $612/mt CFR agreement.

DAP port arrivals total so far total 2.81 million mt DAP for

June trough early September:

DAP PORT ARRIVALS BY SUPPLIER/BUYER - 2011/2012

Supplier Buyer Vessel Quantity

mt Discharge

Port Arrival

PhosChem IPL Calipso 57,307 Mundra Jun 02

JS Belmar 51,499 Mundra Jun 23

Kang Hing 49,567 Mundra Jun 26

Maroudia 50,485 Mundra Jul 06

Sety 55,093 Mundra Jul 21

Nueva Fortuna 48,863 Mundra Jul 29

Cam Seas 60,457 Mundra Aug 12

Total

373,271

Trammo Zuari Siam Suphire 26,252 Karaikal Jun 18

China Zuari Yangtze Pioneer

30,487 Krishnapatn

am Jun 28

Total

56,739

JPMC IPL Thor Harmony 30,000 Mundra Apr 20

Arzanah 26,000 Kandla May 05

Al Dhabiyyah 25,400 Kandla Jun 02

Go Star 42,000 Mundra Jun 24

Thor Harmony 40,800 Kandla Jul 12

ID Tide 25,000 Kandla Jul 21

Thor Harmony 43,650 Kandla Aug 12

Elina B 43,000 Kandla Sep 02

Total

275,850

China IPL Amber Beverly 51,000 Karaikal July

Total

51,000

Ameropa IPL Lucky Pearl 32,359 Kandla Jul 16

Vashod II 36,219 Kandla Aug 15

YUC IPL APJ Jai 54,912 Gangavarm Jun 14

Newlead prosprty

30,038 Krishnapatn

am Jun 16

Vega Pioneer 51,037

Krishnapatnam

Jun 24

Frega 27,594 Vizag Jul 05

KT Albatross 55,037

Krishnapatnam

Jul 14

Atromitos 33,000 Gangavarm Aug 07

Bao shan 26,452 Vizag Aug 14

Ocean Harmony

29,579 Vizag Aug 20

Continental IPL Santos Success

45,003 Gangavaram Jul 16

Lu Hai 29,995 Vizag Jul 27

Sabic IPL Taba 24,415 Kandla Aug 25

Kailin IPL Dariya Brama 51,000 Gangavaram Aug 17

YTH RCF SH Bright 26,252 Vizag Jul 22

Zhan Hua Green Star

Great Success 24,699 Vizag Jul 22

Total

577,591

PhosChem IFFCO Spar Capella 49,691 Kandla May 29

Papillon 47,813 Mundra Jun 09

Ken Unity 47,521 Kandla Jun 22

July M 49,505 Kandla Jul 04

Despina 54,000 Mundra Jul 05

Equinox Don 49,232 Kandla Jul 20

White Diamond 48,555 Mundra Aug 03

Tripple Star 50,101 Mundra Aug 20

Total

396,418

Ameropa IFFCO Orion Exp. 36,800 Kakinada Jul 16

Total

36,800

PhosChem Mosaic/

TCL Falcon Trader 50,588 Bedi Jun 01

Efraim 53,884 Bedi June

Nemeas II 44,000 Bedi July

Swtinokola 40,000 Bedi Aug 19

YUC NFCL E.R. Bern 52,500 Krishnapatn

am Jun 25

SD Epos 48,001

Krishnapatnam

Aug 05

Transglobe NFCL Konkar theo 36,756 Kakinada Jul 19

OCP Zuari Jin Xing 53,791 Kandla May 29

Okyalois 49,000 Kandla June

Pos Aschat 55,800 Kandla June

15


St. George 30,804 Kandla Aug 13

OCP TCL UBC Limas 51,970 Kandla Jun 04

Anapa 50,000 Kandla Aug 13

Total

617,094

Dreymoor Kribhco Saturnus 38,500 Mundra June

Dreymoor Zuari Birch Arrow 38,500 Kandla Jun 18

Captain Kudlly 17,850 Kandla Aug 13

Delfa 25,000 Kandla

Azzura 15,000

Krishnapatnam

Aug 15

Ocean Treasure

25,000 ECI Aug 15

Hyundai Treasure

20,000 Karaikal Aug 14

Dreymoor TCL Maple Ruby 50,198 Krishnapatn

am June

SD Epos 45,000

July

Total

275,048

Quantum Zuari Hana 26,226 Kakinada Jul 07

Kailin C I L Sam Tiger 50,319 Kakinada Jul 20

GSFC Harrier 38,000 Mundra Aug 05

Trammo MCFL Nena J 35,525 Tuticorin Jul 02

Total

150,070

Grand Total

2,809,881

DAP CONTRACTS BY SUPPLIER/BUYER - 2011/2012

Supplier Buyer Contracted Quantities ('000 mt)

Shipment

PhosChem, US IPL/IFFCO 1,000 April – Sept

JPMC, Jordan IPL 300-350 April – Sept

OCP, Morocco Zuari 350 April – Dec

OCP, Morocco Tata 150 April – Dec

PhosChem, US Mosaic 500 April – Dec

YTH, China IPL 300 June – Sept

Dreymoor IPL 150 May – Sept

Sinochem, China IPL 50 June – Sept

Ameropa/Phos Agro IPL/IFFCO 500-600 May – Sept

Sabic/MPC, Saudi Arabia IPL/IFFCO 400 Aug – March

Dreymoor Zuari 150 May – Sept

Sabic/MPC, Saudi Arabia Zuari 200 Aug – Mar

Trammo Zuari 50-100 June – Sept

YTH, China Tata 100 June – Sept

YTH, China Nagarjuna 50 June – Sept

Kailin, China Coromandel 100 June – Sept

TOTAL 4,350-4,550

Indian buyers have also taken receipt of 1.14 million mt

NPK 20-20 during June through August, largely sourced

from China. Market rumours continue to point to a new

export regime in China to levy a tariff of 110% on exports of

NPs and TSP from October 1 in line with the current export

policy for DAP/MAP. If ratified, the new tax policy would

have a severe impact on imports of NPs in India.

NPK CONTRACTS BY SUPPLIER/BUYER - 2011/2012

Supplier Buyer Grade Contracted

Quantities ('000 mt)

Shipment

Trammo, China IPL 20:20:0:0 150-200 May – Sept

Quantum, China IPL 20:20:0:0 150 May – Sept

YTH, China IPL 20:20:0:0 100 May – Sept

Dreymoor, China IPL 20:20:0:0 100 May - Sept

Transglobe China IPL 20:20:0:0 50-70 May - Sept

Fertisul, China IPL 16:20:0:13 25 June

Sinochem, China IPL 20:20:0:0 25 June – July

Helm, China Zuari 20:20:0:0 60 June – Sept

Quantum, China Zuari 20:20:0:0 50 June – Sept

Keytrade China Zuari 20:20:0:0 25-30 June – July

Dreymoor, China Zuari 20:20:0:0 30 June

Quantum, China MCFL 20:20:0:0 50 June – Sept

Keytrade, China MCFL 20:20:0:0 25-30 July – Aug

Transfert, China C I L 20:20:0:0 60 June – Aug

Quantum, China C I L 20:20:0:0 35 June

Trammo, China Nagarjuna 20:20:0:13 50 June – Aug

Fertisul, China Nagarjuna 20:20:0:0 40 June – Sept

TOTAL 1025-1,105

NEPAL: AICL closed a tender September 7 for 20,000 mt

DAP for October shipment. Results of the tender will be

published as they become available. The tonnage is

required for arrival at Haldia and Kolkata within 60-80 days

from LC issuance or for delivery at the importer’s inland

warehouses within 90-110 days from LC.

BANGLADESH: Quantum has sold 35,000 mt DAP ex-

Australia for September loading to a buying consortium.

Pricing was sketchy at press time but it is understood the

business was concluded in the $720s/mt CFR. Quantum’s

DAP export sales ex-Australia to Bangladesh for May-

September business totals up to 255,000 mt.

There are reports that LCC/Lebanon has sold a 25,000

mt TSP via Ameropa priced on formula as a replacement

Tunisian cargo, as GCT’s shipment backlog owing to recent

production stoppages (see Tunisia update further above).

16


Asia

CHINA: Trammo’s sale of 40,000 mt of DAP to an Indian

spot buyer for October delivery at $683/mt CFR is likely to be

sourced from China, which would provide a netback in the

high $640s/mt FOB to the trader. However, it has the option to

ship the cargo from the US.

Rumours continue to circulate in the market of a new export

policy to include NPs and TSP in line with the current tax

regime of 110% for DAP/MAP to take effect from October 1.

Domestic price indications for DAP have firmed to RMB

3,300-3,350/mt FOT ex-factory while wholesale prices are

quoted at RMB 3,500-3,650/mt FOT, up RMB 50/mt compared

with last week’s levels.

Speculation on the possible new export tax structure for

NPs and TSP is reportedly putting downward pressure on the

MAP market, where 11-44-0 grade has eased to RMB 2,900-

2,950/mt FOT compared with last week’s RMB 2,950-

2,980/mt.

AUSTRALIA: Incitec Pivot is understood to have finalised

its export program for 2011 following the sale of 35,000 mt

DAP for September shipment via Quantum into Bangladesh.

The producer will now shift its marketing efforts to the local

market, where seasonal demand is set to emerge in late

September/early October.

Americas

US GULF: Bids and offers for new export DAP business are

at $640-650/mt FOB, with neither suppliers nor endusers

interested in finding middle ground at midweek. Buyers in Latin

America are aiming to pay about $690/mt CFR for DAP.

NEW ORLEANS: The barge market is quiet, and DAP

offers are flat compared to prior weeks at $590-595/st FOB

New Orleans.

US EAST COAST: PotashCorp restarted DAP production

at Aurora September 8, one day ahead of its initial indication.

DAP output, but not phosphoric acid production, was

interrupted after Hurricane Irene struck the North Carolina

coast last week.

Earlier, PotashCorp reported that a small fire late

September 6 resulted in one injury at its Aurora NC

phosphate operation. The injured employee was one of the

company’s first-responder team, trained to respond to

emergencies at the plant. In addition, multiple local fire and

rescue units responded to the accident. The company still

is investigating the cause of the fire that began at 9:50 p.m.

and was extinguished by 11:20 p.m. However, the incident

has not had any impact on production.

BRAZIL: Morocco’s OCP has inked more deals for Brazil,

starting with 60,000 mt of MAP sold at $700-705/mt CFR

sold to its partners Bunge and Yara. The product to be

shipped is 11-54-0, but the pricing is quoted on a 11-52-0

basis. The return to the seller is likely at around $680/mt

FOB Jorf Lasfar based on freight indications at around

$20/mt.

At press time OCP was expected to begin negotiations

shortly with ADM, Fertipar, Heringer, and possibly other

importers for further MAP cargos for September lifting.

ARGENTINA: Profertil has booked 3,000 mt MAP 11-

52-0 ex-Morocco of a 25,000 tonner with Quantum at

$705/mt CFR. The bulk of the balance tonnage has

reportedly been largely placed with two additional buyers at

similar pricing. Quantum’s vessel is currently discharging

the tonnes.

Phosphate Rock

INDIA: RCF has awarded its tender for 100,000 mt

phosphate rock to Sunmit for 50,000 mt minimum 29%

P2O5 content at $126.95/mt CFR. It is currently negotiating

with Sun International for 40,000 mt firm and 20,000 mt and

has requested that the supplier matches Sunmit price

against its original offer at $135/mt CFR. The tonnes are

required for shipment through December.

17


Potash

Market focus shifts towards Q4 business Market focus is shifting towards Q4 business, with buyers

awaiting international producers’ price initiatives for Q4

deliveries. BPC’s target price hike at $25/mt in Southeast Asia

is looking set to be accepted by buyers in the region for a new

benchmark at $530/mt CFR for and $555/mt CFR for standard

and granular MOP, respectively.

In Europe, K+S has yet to announce its price policy for Q4

business, but the market anticipates a similar increase as

seen in Southeast Asia equating to around €10-15/mt on the

Q3 price of €353-363/mt CIF NW Europe for granular grade.

In India, NFL’s latest tender for 100,000 mt of standard

MOP has attracted no offers, as widely anticipated.

Highlights of the week:

BPC’s Q4 target hike at $25/mt in SE Asia set to be accepted;

K+S yet to formulate pricing for Q4 business in Europe;

BPC to ship 180-210,000 mt granular to Brazil in September;

APC sold out through end 2011;

Indian technical experts to inspect Belaruskali’s assets.

SUMMARY OF POTASH IMPORT TENDERS

Importer/ Country

Quantity (mt)

Closing date

Shipment period

Comments

NFL/ India 100,000 August 29 Sept-Oct No offers received.

Ministry of Agriculture Sri Lanka

12,000 Standard MOP

August 15 October Awarded to Dragon Asia at $580.50/mt CFR with 180 days credit

RCF

India

470,000

Standard MOP

August 12 Up to

December

Awards at $485/mt

CFR with 180 days credit

Note: new entries in bold

300

325

350

375

400

425

450

475

500

525

550

575

$/mt Potash: key price benchmarks

FOB Vancouver – std CFR Southeast Asia – std CFR Brazil – gran


EUROPE

NW EUROPE: K+S has yet to formulate its price policy

for Q4 business. There are suggestions that the German

producer along with other suppliers to the region might be

seeking to up prices by €10-15/mt for Q4 deliveries on the

Q3 price of €353-363/mt CIF NW Europe for granular MOP.

JORDAN: APC is sold out until the end of the 2011,

fulfilling contract commitments with customers in China and

India, and term buyers in Southeast Asia. Any spot

availabilities will be priced in line with international prices

set by key suppliers BPC and Canpotex.

Indian Subcontinent

INDIA: As widely expected, no offers were submitted

under NFL’s August 29 tender for 100,000 mt of standard

MOP. The importer’s financial standing has been a source

of concern and is attributed as the main for the lack of

bidders, according to local sources. However, NFL might

elect to hold a retender. The tonnes are required for arrival

September to October 2011.

K+S is set to ship to its first MOP cargo in September

under contract to IPL. The German producer has allocated

200,000 mt under India’s 2011/2012 fertilizer year.


18


The 2011/2012 MOP supply contract allocation schedule by

supplier/buyer is repeated below:

MOP SUPPLY CONTRACTS AUGUST 2011 TO MARCH 2012

Supplier Buyer Quantity MT Optional

Canpotex Coromandel 335 34

Tata Chemicals 335 34

IPL 300**

Total

970 68

ICL IPL 1,000 100

Zuari 240

Coromandel 150 25

Total

1,390 125

APC IPL 375 25

Zuari 200

Total

575 25

IPC IPL 400*

RCF 70* 30*

MCFL 60*

Total 530 30

K&S IPL 200

BPC IPL 1,200

Zuari 400

MMTC (RCF/Kribhco) 200 100

Nagarjuna 150 15

Shriram 60 6

MCFL 60 6

Deepak 60 6

Total 2,130 133

TOTAL 5,795 381

*For shipments up to Dec 2011 **Canpotex is understood to have no material for shipments before December 2011

A delegation from India is set to visit Belarus within a

month, with a team of technical experts to inspect

Belaruskali’s production facilities, according to local press

reports. It follows an earlier proposal by the Belarus

government for a 20% stake in the state-owned potash

producer in the form of a $6 billion investment in the company.

An Indian delegation visited Belarus in August to discuss the

terms of the proposition. Russian potash producer Uralkali has

also been linked as potential bidder for a stake in Belaruskali.

Asia

CHINA: Domestic wholesale standard red MOP and

standard white MOP prices remain at RMB 3,250-3,280/mt

FOT port and at RMB 3,380-3,400/mt FOT, respectively.

Port inventories have risen to around 930,000 mt from

around 820,000 mt in mid August. The autumn ploughing

season is set to run from mid September to mid October,

when NPK producers are expected to enter the market.

Potential demand for MOP for the autumn application

season is expected to support current MOP pricing.

SE ASIA: BPC’s price hike target at $25/mt for Q4

business is set to be accepted in the region, setting a new

benchmark at $530/mt CFR for standard MOP and $555/mt

CFR for granular grade. Canpotex has yet to announce it

price initiative for the region.

Americas

US MIDWEST: Despite higher replacement costs from

Canadian and US producers, granular potash is widely

available at $570/st FOB from terminals on both sides of

the Mississippi River. The producer price list of $590/st

FOB has more support in the eastern region.

BRAZIL: BPC’s September line-up totals six 30-35,000

mt cargoes of granular MOP for medium-to-large buyers

priced at $550-555/mt CFR.

19


Sulphur

Adnoc announces $5/mt increase for September Adnoc issued its September contract price at $220/mt FOB

Ruwais, a $5/mt increase on August and reflects a

strengthening in the market buoyed by recent spot business

out of the Middle East to India and China in particular.

This can be seen further in FACT’s September 5 tender, which

is likely to be awarded around $245/mt CFR, which is a $5/mt

increase on its August 17 tender award at $240/mt CFR.

Reliance has awarded its September 7 export tender to

Swiss Singapore at an undisclosed price, but given the direction

of the market, it could see an increase on the previous Reliance

tender held August 4, awarded at $205/mt FOB.

China remains steady with imports remaining around the

$235-240/mt CFR level. The argument persists that inventory

levels remain low, hence end-users must return to the market.

With the fourth quarter looming, it remains to be seen to what

extent this will have an impact on the market, or whether the

state of flux between buyers and suppliers will endure through

the end of 2011.


Adnoc issues September price at $220/mt FOB;

FACT set to award September 5 tender at $245/mt CFR;

Reliance awards September 7 tender to Swiss Singapore

at undisclosed price;

China’s import price steady at $235-240/mt CFR

Quarter four contract talks approaching.

190

195

200

205

210

215

220

225

230

235

240

245

$/mt Sulphur: key price benchmarks

FOB Adnoc monthly CFR India ex-Middle East FOB Middle East - spot


SULPHUR EXPORT TENDERS: SHIPMENT JULY-SEPTEMBER 2011

Exporter/ Country

Quantity (mt)

Closing date

Shipment period

Comments

Reliance India

25,000 mt granular

Sep 7 September Swiss Singapore – price not known at press time

IGCC Iran

30,000 crushed-lump

Aug 28 1H Sep Bids reported in the mid $190s/mt FOB. Award to be issued

TCO Kazakhstan

25,000 granular

Aug 18 Aug 25-30 Reportedly awarded to OCP in the $230s/mt CFR

IGCC Iran

25,000 flaky

Aug 16 End Aug Awarded to Havi at above $200/mt FOB

IGCC Iran

7,000 ‘grey’ granular

Aug 8 End Aug/ Early Sep

Awarded to Havi at above $200/mt FOB

Reliance India

25,000 granular

Aug 4 End Aug Awarded to Quantum at $205/mt FOB

Reliance

India

25,000 July 13 Aug Awarded around

$195/mt FOB

KHPC Iran

25,000 granular

July 5 Jul Awarded to Swiss Singapore at around $202-205/mt FOB

IGCC Iran

30,000 granular

July 11 Jul Not yet announced

Raintrade Iran

30,000 granular

July 8 Jul Awarded at $195/mt FOB

KHPC Iran

25,000 granular

June 24

Jul 1 Awarded at around $200/mt FOB

Reliance India

25,000 granular

June 17

1H Jul Awarded to Mitsui at around $210/mt FOB


SULPHUR IMPORT TENDERS: SHIPMENT JULY-SEPTEMBER 2011

Importer/

Country

Quantity

(mt)

Closing

date

Shipment

period

Comments

FACT India

25,000 granular

Sep 05 Sep/Oct Not yet awarded

PPL India

35,000 granular

Aug 17 1H Sep Awarded to Midgulf at $237.50/mt CFR

FACT India

25,000 granular

Aug 17 Late Aug Awarded to Swiss Singapore at $240/mt CFR

Andhra Sugar India

9,000 granular

Aug 16 Early Sep Awarded to Swiss Singapore at $240/mt CFR

RCF India

10,000 crushed-lump

Aug 16 Early Sep Awarded to Swiss Singapore at $237.50/mt CFR

FACT India

25,000 granular

June 22 Early July Awarded to Swiss Singapore at $232/mt CFR

PPL India

35,000 granular

Jun 8 July 11-14 Awarded to Midgulf at $243/mt CFR.



20


Europe

FRANCE: Total is set to resume molten sulphur deliveries to

GCT/Tunisia under contract from mid September.


UAE: As indicated earlier this week, Adnoc’s new contract price

for September business was posted at $220/mt FOB Ruwais, up

$5/mt on the August price. The new price reflects current spot

business ex-Middle East on the back of a rebounding

international market.

ADNOC: MONTHLY CONTRACT PRICES ($/MT FOB) – JAN 2008-SEP 2011

Month 2011 2010 2009 2008

January 165 110 50 495

February 190 165 35 600

March 210 210 45 640

April 225 170 50 670

May 240 145 50 720

June 240 NA* 40 800

July 225 65 35 820

August 215 110 33 770

September 220 160 40 580

October 170 45 200

November 175 50 NA*

December 165 57 50

* NA- not announced/not published

SAUDI ARABIA: It is understood Aramco sold a 30,000

mt spot cargo to a Japanese trader, which was placed with

IFFCO at around $236/mt CFR.

The Zenith is set to depart Jubail September 10 with 38,786

mt granular sulphur for China.

IRAN: IGCC has yet to award its August 28 sales tender for

30,000 mt crushed-lump sulphur for 1H September shipment,

which attracted bids in the mid $190s/mt FOB Bandar Abbas.

There are rumours suggesting that the delay in the award

stems from logistical problems between the Khangiran refinery

and the Bandar Abbas port. Sources indicate the tender could

be postponed or scrapped/

TUNISIA: Sources indicate that GCT is now running

DAP production at around 50% at Gabes. TSP production

at M’dhilla is running close to capacity.

SOUTH AFRICA: ICEC shipped September 6, 42,000

mt granular sulphur ex-Jubail to South Africa on the Sanko

Mercury.

Indian Subcontinent

INDIA: Reliance has awarded its September 7 sales

tender for 25,0000 mt granular sulphur for September

shipment to Swiss Singapore at an undisclosed price. Its

August 4 tender was awarded at $205/mt FOB to Quantum.

IFFCO has booked 30-35,000 mt granular sulphur ex-

Middle East with Mitsubishi for end September/early

October loading at $237-238/mt CFR Kandla. The cargo is

likely to be sourced from Adnoc/UAE or Aramco/Saudi

Arabia.

IFFCO has also booked 23,000 mt granular sulphur on

the Zulal with Transfert in the mid-to-high $230s/mt CFR.

The cargo will be loaded from Ruwais mid September.

Earlier, IFFCO purchased two 30,000 mt spot cargoes of

granular sulphur ex-Middle East at $232-233/mt CFR for 1H

September delivery at Paradip.

FACT’s September 5 tender has yet to be awarded. The

tender has attracted offers from Swiss Singapore and

Transfert. The business is likely to be awarded to Transfert,

which submitted the lowest offer at $245/mt CFR Cochin.

However, the offer has been submitted on a cash payment

basis and not with 180 days credit as requested by the

importer. Adnoc is said to be supporting the offer at

$220/mt FOB Ruwais based on the producer’s price

declared September 6. An award is expected to be issued

September 12. The cargo is required for October 21-24

delivery at Cochin so shipment would need to be effected

by October 9-10. The previous tender, held August 17, also

for 25,000 mt granular sulphur was awarded to Swiss

Singapore at $239.25/mt CFR basis cash payment Cochin

ex-Middle East.

FACT has received 27,000 mt granular sulphur on the

Arrilah from Swiss Singapore. This came under the August

17 tender which was awarded at $239/mt CFR Cochin.

21


INDIA: SULPHUR PORT ARRIVALS –JULY-SEPTEMBER 2011

Supplier Origin Buyer Quantity

(mt) Vessel Arrival

Discharge

port

Swiss Singapore

Kuwait IFFCO 32,996 Marbelelle Sep 03 Paradip

Transfert UAE various 22,000 Zulal N Aug 28 Mumbai

Swiss Singapore

Iran Tata

Chemicals 13,000

Sun Enterprise

Aug 12 Haldia

Swiss Singapore

Iran IFFCO 27,211 Sun

Enterprise Aug 8 Paradip

Mitsubishi Qatar IFFCO 31,499 Rogue July 25 Paradip

ETA Bahrain SSP 3,500 Nadeem July 16 Kandla

Swiss Singapore

Qatar CFL 22,000 Tai Harmony July 13 Vizag

Swiss Singapore

Iran FACT 27,000 Sattar July 12 Cochin

IFFCO 16,355 Southern

Condor July 1 Paradip

Midgulf UAE PPL 35,551 Ocean Jade July 1 Paradip

Total 231,112

Asia

CHINA: Price ideas are pegged to last week’s levels at

$235-240/mt CFR for granular sulphur sourced from the

Middle East. Last week, Swiss Singapore sold a part cargo of

10-12,000 mt granular sulphur to a local trader at $240/mt

CFR.

In the domestic market, prices in eastern and southern

China remain stable at RMB 1,780-1,840/mt FOT ex-factory

while in the northeast regional market tighter availability is

reported, which has seen prices go up by RMB 50/mt on last

week’s levels to RMB 1,850/mt FOT ex-factory.

At major ports – Qingdao, Nantong and Fangcheng – latest

price indications are reported RMB 10/mt firmer at RMB

1,830-1,870/mt FOT on the back of offers above $240/mt CFR

from international suppliers.

Port inventories are estimated at 1.4 million mt compared

with 1.42 million mt September 1.

TAIWAN: Formosa’s 540,000 barrels/day refinery in Mailiao

is expected to re-start production. The plant produces around

30,000 mt/month sulphur, which is used in throughout the

region to produce sulphuric acid.

Americas

CANADA: Despite settling with South African buyers in

recent weeks within the $230-240/mt FOB range, there is

no indication that suppliers have concluded any Q3

contracts with Chinese buyers. Some sources suggest

price ideas remain too marked.

US GULF: PotashCorp has unveiled plans to build a new

sulphur melting plant at its facility in Aurora, Beaufort City

according to local reports. Plans include two steam-heated

sulphur melting plant, with two smokestack scrubbing

systems. The announcement follows the failed attempt to

establish a sulphur melting plant in Morehead City following

public backlash.

BRAZIL: The market is fully covered to the end of

September. One or two buyers have expressed interest for

October business and are indicating bids in the mid

$240s/mt CFR. Brazil’s import programme is pegged at

around 2.3 million mt for the whole of 2011.

22


Sulphuric Acid

Market balanced as Noracid remains down Strong fundamentals continue to keep the sulphuric acid

market healthy. Downstream demand is strong, with prices for

base metals at a consistently high level, whilst supply is well

balanced following the conclusion of a number of turnarounds

in the first half in Europe.


Market stays balanced

Noracid possibly start-up September 13

Tuticorin receives environmental conditions

The Sterlite Tuticorin saga has reached some form of

conclusion, with the copper smelter being given a range of

environmental conditions by the Supreme Court to adhere to,

otherwise it risks being shutdown. This resolution should

alleviate fears domestic Indian buyers may have had about

losing material.

Moreover, the Noracid sulphur burning plant remains down,

though sources indicate repairs are going well, which should

see no repeat of the protracted start-up of the plant witnessed

earlier this year. Spot activity has not increased as originally

suggested, as Chilean customers are well covered for

September.

On phosphates, further price rises were achieved this

week, with a spot deal concluded at $683/mt CFR, from

$677/mt CFR last week and $612/mt CFR the week before.

CRU’s Base Metal price index meanwhile remains stable.

45

60

75

90

105

120

135

150

165

180

195

$/mtSulphuric Acid: key price benchmarks

FOB NW Europe CFR US Gulf CFR Chile - spot




Europe

NW EUROPE: As in recent weeks, the market in Europe

is quiet and well balanced during the holiday season.

Following the turnarounds in the 1H, there is more

availability expected, though in general the market is tight

and spot is limited.

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

DAP FOB Tampa & CFR India Price History

FOB DAP Tampa ($/mt) CFR DAP India ($/mt)

0

50

100

150

200

250

CRU Base Metals Index

Copper Zinc Lead Nickel


23


ITALY: An Italian supplier is set to deliver its latest cargo of

4,000 mt sulphuric acid to GCT/Tunisia this week under an

existing contract arrangement. The price is understood to be

around $75/mt CFR.


TUNISIA: Sources indicate that GCT is now running DAP

production at around 50% at Gabes. TSP production at

M’dhilla is running close to capacity.

MALAWI: Australia’s Paladin Energy has announced the

start-up of the Kayelekera uranium plant has been delayed by

one week as a result of its drying and packaging plant being

temporarily offline. The project features a 230 mt/day

sulphuric acid plant, which is also undergoing maintenance

involving pipe repairs and other structural works to mitigate

problems caused by earth movement. Once production

recommences next week, existing acid inventories will be

supplemented by purchased sulphuric acid untilt he work on

the acid plant is completed next month.

Indian Subcontinent

INDIA: The Supreme Court this week has reserved its

judgement over the stay of closure of Sterlite Copper’s

Tuticorin copper smelter. This follows the report submitted by

the Tamil Nadu government suggesting measures to be taken

up by Sterlite to fulfil compliance with the environmental

standards.

The Court will direct the Tamil Nadu Pollution Control Board to

issue notice to Sterlite to follow the environmental measures,

and warned that any non-compliance would lead to the

closure of the copper plant.

FACT is understood to be in talks with Hindalco Dahej for

the supply of sulphuric acid. As reported previously, the

company is still working on rectifying a technical issue with its

sulphuric acid tanks. Work has been hampered by heavy

rainfall during the Monsoon season. Once the problem has

been resolved, the company is expected to reissue its tender

for 9,000 mt for shipment to Cochin. Though there are reports

that Sterlite could be awarded the tender. FACT requires

around 100,000 mt/year of imported sulphuric acid for its

fertilizer operations.

No new acid vessels have arrived at port since last week.

INDIA: SULPHURIC ACID IMPORTS– JUNE-SEPTEMBER 2011

Supplier Origin Buyer Quantity (mt)

Vessel Arrival Discharge port

- - IFFCO 13,500 Southern

Royal Sept 20 Paradip

- China PPL 19,000 Global Peace Sept 09 Paradip

Hindalco India - 7,500 Gem of

Dahej Sept 04 -

- - CIL 7,000 Stolt Bosan Sept 01 Vizag

- - CIL 3,000 Stolt Bosan Aug 30 Kakinada

- - - 19,000 Global Aug 25 Dahej

- - Sterlite 10,000 Samnar

Majesty Aug24 Tuticorin

- Japan IFFCO 12,000 Southern Lion Aug 19 Paradip

- - - 19,000 Sichem

Defender Aug 18 Dahej

Hindalco India PPL 15,000 MT Shantou Aug 16 Dahej

- - CIL 4,000 Samnar

Majesty Aug 08 Kakinada

- - CFL 9,000 Sanmar

Majesty July 25 Vizag

- Isabel,

Philippines IFFCO 23,096 Bow Baha July 20 Paradip

- - IFFCO 18,900 Fanchem

Mistry July 13 Paradip

- - IFFCO 13,655 Southern

Hawk July 11 Paradip

- - IFFCO 23,946 Ginga Cougar June 15 Paradip

- - IFFCO 29,000 Bow Lima June 5 Paradip

Hindalco Dahej - 18,500 Fairchem

Birdie June 2 -

Asia

CHINA: Sulphuric acid prices continue to diversify in

regional markets. In Eastern China market, some plants

lowered their ex factory price due to inactive response from

clients. And some newly built acid operations, which are

mainly sulphur burners and located in Henan province, are

selling into coastal provinces, placing pressure on existing

players. In Yunnan, acid production was impacted by the

case of pollution caused by dumping chromium sediment in

August. Some acid operations have stopped production for

maintenance. But in adjacent province Guizhou, some acid

plants planned to cut production due to declined demand

from manganese industry. Prices in Eastern China are at

RMB 560-650/mt ex factory

24


Sources indicate export prices for acid out of China is

steady at $90/mt FOB.

TAIWAN: Formosa’s 540,000 barrels/day refinery in Mailiao

is expected to re-start production. The plant produces around

30,000 mt/month sulphur, which is used in throughout the

region to produce sulphuric acid.

Americas

US GULF: Phosphate Holdings, in its Q2 2011 financial

results announced the damaged heat exchanger in one of its

sulphuric acid plants will be replaced during a scheduled

October 2011 turnaround. Damaged heat exchangers saw the

company need to purchase larger volumes of sulphuric acid

for DAP production than planned, causing a negative impact

on its financial results in the second quarter.

MEXICO: Fertinal has issued an enquiry for two shipments

of 20,000 mt in the fourth quarter, with the first to arrive

October. It is understood at least five offers have been

received.

CHILE: It is understood the Noracid plant remains down,

and is likely to stay down until September 15. Spot demands

remain minimal as all customers are covered for the time

being.

Outotec has signed a contract with Codelco for the design

and delivery of concentrator technology to Codelco’s new

Mina Ministro Hales in northern Chile. The contract value is

EUR 24 million ($33.7 million) This follows earlier contracts

signed between Outotec and Codelco in 2010 and 2011,

which includes the delivery of copper concentrate and

sulphuric acid plant.

UREA – FOB prilled bulk AMMONIA – FOBBlack Sea 500 - 510 488 - 495 Black Sea 555 - 570 555 - 555Baltic Sea** 490 - 495 478 - 495 Ventspils 575 - 585 555 - 565Bulgaria/Croatia/Romania* 515 - 520 518 - 525 Middle East – spot

#545 - 550 535 - 545

Middle East* 510 - 515 502 - 510 Middle East (India) contract 510 - 520 508 - 516Indonesia 499 - 511 499 - 511 New Orleans – barge (st) 550 - 570 550 - 570China† 495 - 505 495 - 505 Caribbean 550 - 550 550 - 550China FOT ex-factory (Rmb/mt) 2160 - 2220 2100 - 2160 AMMONIA – CFR

China FOT wholesale (Rmb/mt) 2200 - 2250 2150 - 2220 Southern Europe (duty paid)* 620 - 630 600 - 610UREA – CFR prilled bulk NW Europe (duty paid)* 625 - 640 615 - 625Mediterranean (duty paid) 540 - 545 540 - 548 Morocco* 615 - 625 600 - 610India 518 - 523 518 - 523 India 548 - 558 535 - 546Vietnam 505 - 532 520 - 545 South Korea/Taiwan 620 - 630 600 - 610Philippines 510 - 525 500 - 520 Southeast Asia 630 - 650 590 - 620East Coast Central America 520 - 528 520 - 530 US Gulf 590 - 590 590 - 590Brazil 518 - 523 515 - 525 Tampa 590 - 590 590 - 590UREA – FOB granular bulk DAP – FOB bulk

Middle East 505 - 527 502 - 515 Tampa/US Gulf 650 - 660 625 - 655Egypt 550 - 550 545 - 546 Central Florida (st) 585 - 585 585 - 585FOB/FOT France (€/mt)* 390 - 400 385 - 395 New Orleans – barge (st) 590 - 595 590 - 595Malaysia 490 - 510 490 - 505 Baltic/Black Sea 690 - 695 690 - 695Indonesia 506 - 507 506 - 507 Jordan*** 575 - 578 575 - 578New Orleans – barge (st) 507 - 512 502 - 507 Tunisia nm - nm nm - nmVenezuela/Trinidad 505 - 515 505 - 515 Morocco 698 - 707 698 - 705UREA – CFR granular bulk Saudi Arabia 685 - 685 690 - 700Mediterranean (duty paid) 545 - 555 545 - 555 China†† 645 - 650 630 - 640

Southeast Asia 525 - 532 515 - 525 China FOT ex-factory bagged (Rmb/mt)##

3300 - 3350 3250 - 3300South Korea 528 - 532 510 - 520 China FOT wholesale (Rmb/mt) 3500 - 3650 3500 - 3600AMMONIUM SULPHATE – FOB bulk FOB/FOT Terneuzen/Ghent 735 - 745 735 - 745Black Sea – standard 170 - 180 170 - 180 DAP – CFR bulkBlack Sea – white 218 - 224 220 - 225 India 677 - 683 677 - 677NITRATES Pakistan 690 - 700 690 - 700AN FOB bulk Black Sea 310 - 320 315 - 320 Argentina/Uruguay 705 - 710 710 - 720AN FOB bulk Baltic Sea 310 - 320 315 - 320 MAP – bulkAN FOT bagged UK (£/mt) 305 - 315 305 - 315 FOB Baltic/Black Sea 690 - 695 690 - 695

AN FOT bagged France (€/mt) 300 - 310 305 - 315 CFR Brazil 700 - 705 705 - 710AN DEL bulk France (€/mt) 340 - 340 335 - 340 China FOT ex-factory 11-44-0 (Rmb/mt) 2900 - 2950 3000 - 3050AN FOB bulk New Orleans 345 - 355 345 - 355 China FOT ex-factory 10-50-0 (Rmb/mt) 3100 - 3200 3100 - 3200CAN CIF Germany (€/mt) 263 - 273 263 - 273 GTSP – FOB bulkCAN CIF Benelux (€/mt) 259 - 269 259 - 269 Tunisia nm - nm nm - nmUAN FOB Black Sea 32% 320 - 335 325 - 340 Morocco*** 560 - 570 560 - 570UAN FOT Rouen 30% (€/mt) 245 - 250 243 - 248 FOB/FOT Benelux 610 - 620 620 - 630UAN FOT Germany 28% (€/mt)*** 200 - 210 200 - 210 PHOSPHORIC ACID (MGA) – $/mt P2O5

UAN FOB New Orleans (st) 345 - 355 345 - 355 FOB North Africa 970 - 1130 970 - 1130

UAN CFR US East Coast 375 - 378 375 - 378 CFR India 1050 - 1050 1050 - 1050SULPHUR – FOB dry bulk CFR NW Europe 1200 - 1205 1200 - 1205Vancouver – spot 200 - 220 200 - 220 CFR Mediterranean 1180 - 1185 1180 - 1185Vancouver – 2H 2011§ 230 - 235 230 - 235 PHOSPHATE ROCK – bulkMiddle East – spot 210 - 220 210 - 220 FOB Morocco (65-75% BPL) 190 - 205 190 - 205Middle East – Q3 2011 205 - 220 205 - 220 CFR India (72-75% BPL) 205 - 210 205 - 210Middle East – 2H 2011 210 - 215 210 - 215 CFR India (68-70% BPL) 150 - 190 150 - 190Adnoc monthly – September 220 - 220 215 - 215 NPK – bulkBlack Sea 190 - 220 190 - 220 16-16-16 FOB Baltic Sea 487 - 495 485 - 495

China FOT port (Rmb/mt) 1830 - 1870 1820 - 1860 17-17-17 DEL France (€/mt) 455 - 462 455 - 463China FOT ex-factory (Rmb/mt) 1780 - 1860 1760 - 1860 15-15-15 CIF Germany (€/mt) 385 - 392 385 - 395SULPHUR – CFR dry bulk 20-10-10 DEL bagged UK (£/mt) 315 - 320 315 - 320China – spot 235 - 240 235 - 240 15-15-15-CL FOT ex-factory China (Rmb/mt) 2700 - 2800 2650 - 2700China – Q3 2011 230 - 240 230 - 240 15-15-15-S FOT ex-factory China (Rmb/mt) 2900 - 2950 2800 - 2900India ex-Middle East 235 - 240 232 - 240 MOP – FOB bulkNorth Africa – 2H 2011§ 235 - 240 235 - 240 Vancouver – standard 425 - 515 425 - 515Mediterraneanǂ (excl. domestic contracts) 120 - 150 120 - 150 Vancouver – granular 440 - 530 440 - 530Mediterraneanǂǂ (incl. North Africa) 165 - 175 165 - 175 Jordan/Israel – standard 435 - 510 435 - 510

Brazil 240 - 250 240 - 250 Baltic Sea – standard 415 - 510 415 - 510LIQUID SULPHUR Baltic Sea – granular 430 - 525 430 - 525CPT NW Europe truckload – 2H 2011§ 240 - 260 240 - 260 China FOT port wholesale–standard (Rmb/mt) 3250 - 3400 3250 - 3400FOB Tampa (lt) – Q3 2011 220 - 220 220 - 220 MOP – CFR bulkCFR Benelux barge/railcar – 2H 2011§ 220 - 235 220 - 235 Brazil – granular 550 - 560 550 - 560SULPHURIC ACID China – standard 470 - 470 470 - 470CFR NW Europe – 2H 2011 (€/mt)§ 90 - 110 90 - 110 DAF Russia/China cross-border – standard 420 - 430 420 - 430FOB NW Europe 100 - 110 100 - 110 India – standard (180 days) 470 - 490 470 - 490CFR Turkey 130 - 140 130 - 140 Southeast Asia – standard 500 - 510 500 - 510

CFR Tunisia – contract 75 - 85 75 - 85 CIF NW Europe – granular (€/mt) 353 - 363 353 - 363CFR US Gulf 140 - 150 140 - 150 SOP – FOB/FOT bulkCFR Brazil 150 - 155 150 - 155 NW Europe standard (€/mt) 390 - 410 390 - 410CFR Chile – spot 160 - 170 160 - 170CFR Chile – contract 90 - 125 90 - 125

Legend: nm=no market; *indicative; **revised; ***no recent business †38-42%, ††24-25% export tax rates; §reflects latest quarterly contracts

ǂless than 10K mt; ǂǂover 10K mt; #Iran excluded; ##excludes export sales Forex: €1=$1.4 / $1=RMB6.38 / £1=$1.61 Reproduction & Distribution Prohibited

FERTILIZER | WEEK FULL PRICE ASSESSMENTS

Sep 08 Sep 01

September 08, 2011

Sep 08 Sep 01

FERTILIZER | WEEK compiles prices each Thursday in consultation with producers, consumers and traders. Prices are in US dollars and on a FOB or CFR basis, unless otherwise stated. While all reasonable efforts are taken to ensure the reliability of the data, FW does not guarantee its accuracy or take liability for the results obtained by using the data.

26


Bery Freight Indicators – September 8, 2011

Product / Route Vessel Size

(mt) Loading / Freight ($/t)

Discharge rates Sep 08 Sep 01

UREA

Yuzhnyy - Turkey 10-15,000 8,000c / 3,000c 19 - 21

19 - 21

Yuzhnyy - Mundra 55-60,000 10,000c / 10,000c 32 - 34 32 - 34

Yuzhnyy - WC India 35-45,000 10,000c / 10,000c 37 - 39 38 - 40

Yuzhnyy - Brazil 25-30,000 8,000c / 5,000c 32 - 34 33 - 35

Yuzhnyy - EC Mexico 25-30,000 8,000c / 3,000c 35 - 37 36 - 38

Yuzhnyy - WC Mexico 25-30,000 8,000c / 4,000c 52 - 54 53 - 55

Baltic - WC India 35-45,000 8,000c / 10,000c 58 - 60 57 - 59

Baltic - Brazil 25-30,000 8,000c / 5,000c 34 - 36 34 - 36

Baltic - EC Mexico 25-30,000 8,000c / 3,000c 33 - 35 33 - 35

Baltic - WC Mexico 25-30,000 8,000c / 4,000c 50 - 52 50 - 52

Middle East - WC India 15-25,000 6,000x / 6,000x 19 - 21 20 - 22

Middle East - Vietnam 20-25,000 6,000x / 2,500x 35 - 37 37 - 39

Middle East - Mississippi River, US*

40-45,000 6,000x / 8,000c 25 - 35 25 - 35

North China - EC India 20-25,000 3,000c / 5,000x 34 - 35 35 - 35

DAP/MAP

Tampa - WC India 50-60,000 8,000c / 10,000c 49 - 51 50 - 52

Tampa - Pakistan 35-40,000 8,000c / 3,500x 77 - 79 79 - 81

Tampa - Brazil 20-25,000 8,000c / 5,000c 38 - 40

38 - 40

Baltic - Brazil 25-30,000 8,000c / 5,000c 34 - 36 34 - 36

Red Sea - WC India 15-25,000 8,000x / 6,000x 31 - 33 33 - 35

Tunisia - Pakistan 25-30,000 6,000x / 3,500x 48 - 50 47 - 49

Tunisia - Turkey 10-15,000 6,000x / 3,000c 19 - 21 20 - 22

Morocco - Brazil 25-30,000 7,500x / 5,000c 22 - 24 20 - 22

MOP

Vancouver - China 50-60,000 12,000c / 10,000c 25 - 27

23 - 25

Vancouver - SE Asia 30-40,000 12,000c / 10,000c 44 - 46 43 - 45

Vancouver - Brazil 40-50,000 12,000c / 10,000c 31 - 33 31 - 33

Baltic - China 50-60,000 8,000c / 6,000c 49 - 51 49 - 51

Baltic - WC India 35-45,000 8,000c / 10,000c 58 - 60 57 - 59

Baltic - Brazil 25-30,000 8,000c / 5,000c 34 - 36 34 - 36

Red Sea - WC India 15-25,000 8,000x / 6,000x 31 - 33 33 - 35

SULPHUR

Vancouver - China 50-60,000 12,000c / 10,000c 25 - 27

23 - 25

Vancouver - Brazil 40-50,000 12,000c / 10,000c 31 - 33 31 - 33

Middle East - WC India 15-25,000 8,000x / 6,000x 19 - 21 20 - 22

Middle East - China 30-35,000 8,000x / 6,000c 28 - 30 29 - 31

Middle East - Morocco 35-40,000 10,000c / 5,000x 29 - 31 29 - 31

Black Sea - Morocco 25-30,000 8,000c / 5,000x 21 - 23 21 - 23

* low end CoA, high end spot; ** revised; ice conditions not considered

For a tailor-made freight guide to meet your particular needs, please contact BERY MARITIME directly. Tel: + 47 23 11 35 00 (Norway) // Tel:+86 755 2689 7049 (China) Fax: +47 23 11 35 10 // E-mail: [email protected]

Disclaimer: The freight assessments above are provided in good faith by Bery Maritime AS, a

leading Fertilizer Freight Consultancy/Broker. While all reasonable efforts are taken to ensure the reliability of the data, Bery Maritime does not guarantee its accuracy nor take liability for

any direct, indirect or consequential loss arising from any use of the information, opinion

and/or estimates in this Freight Guide.

FW Freight Indicators – Sep 8, 2011

Product / Route Vessel Size (mt)

Freight ($/t) Sep 08

Sep 01

UAN

Black Sea - EC US 17-27,000 34 - 39 35 - 40

Black Sea - French Atlantic

17-27,000 32 - 35 32 - 36

AMMONIA

Yuzhnyy - US Tampa 30-35,000 67 - 73

68 - 74

Yuzhnyy - NW Europe 20-25,000 51 - 53 52 - 55

Yuzhnyy - S Europe 10-15,000 35 - 40 35 - 40

Yuzhnyy - Morocco 20-25,000 39 - 43 38 - 42

Baltic - NW Europe 10-15,000 24 - 28 25 - 30

Middle East - WC India 20-25,000 26 - 32 28 - 34

Middle East - EC India 20-25,000 42 - 50 45 - 53

Spot basis; nm: no market.

Disclaimer: All prices are estimates only and do not reflect actual

transactions. All rates are in US dollars per tonne and are net of any war-risk

premiums that may be imposed. FERTILIZER WEEK does not guarantee

the reliability or the accuracy of the information.

27


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London WC1X 0AD, United Kingdom Fax: +44 20 7903 2139 Web: www.fertilizerweek.com

Editor-in-Chief/Publisher: NATALIE NOOR-DRUGAN

Tel: +44 20 7903 2421 [email protected]

Managing Editor: MAGNUS BERGE Tel: +44 20 7903 2422

[email protected] Senior Markets Editor:

LARS TAARLAND Tel: +47 99 58 17 40 [email protected]

[email protected] Markets Editor:

DAVID MAITLAND Tel: +44 20 7903 2015 [email protected]

Markets Editor: CHRISTOPHER SELL Tel: +44 20 7903 2142

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USA +1 212 634 6424

UK +44 20 7090 1122

Bid Offer Chg Basis ('000s) Bid Offer Chg Basis ('000s)

Sep 11 540 549 0 5 mt Sep 11 497 505 0 5mt

Oct 11 541 547 -1 5 mt Oct 11 500 507 -1 5mt

Nov 11 540 546 -2 5 mt Nov 11 502 506 -2 5 mt

Q4 11 541 547 0 5 mt Q4 11 501 508 1 5 mt

Sep 11 508 515 3 3 st Sep 11 357 365 0 3 st

Oct 11 511 515 3 1.5 st Oct 11 357 362 1 4 st

Nov 11 510 515 3 1.5 st Nov 11 358 362 2 5 st

Q4 11 510 515 4 5 st Q4 11 355 361 0 5 st

Q1 12 502 510 0 5 st Q1 12 354 363 1 5 st

Sep 11 590 596 0 1.5 st Sep 11 640 650 0 5 mt

Oct 11 592 600 0 1.5 st Oct 11 640 653 -1 5 mt

Nov 11 590 600 0 1.5 st Nov 11 638 655 0 5 mt

Dec 11 583 600 0 1.5 st Dec 11 635 650 0 5 mt

Sep 11 555 570 0 5 mt Sep 11 240 250 0 5 mt

585 615 0 5 mt 241 260 0 5 mt

360

358513

543

DAP fob NOLA (st)

513

506

512

544

[email protected]

www.freightinvestor.com

Per

Urea (Prill) fob Yuzhnyy (mt)

545 501

Per Mid

FIS Daily Fertiliser Report 7-Sep-11

513

UAN (32% N) fob NOLA (st)

361

360

504

Urea (gran) fob barge NOLA (st)

544 504

643

251

Urea (gran) fob bulk Egypt (mt)

Mid

359

593

595

DAP fob Tampa (metric tonne)

505

647

645

596

647

563

592

600

245

Ammonia cfr Tampa (mt) UAN(30%) FOT Rouen (mt)

Oct 11 585 615 0 5 mt Oct 11 241 260 0 5 mt

Nov 11 610 630 0 5 mt Nov 11 233 257 0 5 mt

Activity increased for Yuzhnyy and Egypt Urea heading into the end of the year. Yuzhnyy Urea traded for October at $504 and for

November at $502. Egypt Urea for October traded at $543 and at $544. Activity in Nola Urea was subdued at these current price levels,

market participantsawaiting direction from the physical marketand all eyes are begining to focus on next weeks WASDE report.

251

620

600

Urea Historical Price and Forward Curve DAP Historical Price and Forward Curve

245

Commentary

280

330

380

430

480

530

Urea (Prill) fob Yuzhnyy (metric tonne) Forward curve fob Yuzhnyy Urea (gran) fob barge NOLA (short ton) Forward curve fob NOLA

450

500

550

600

650

700

DAP fob Tampa (metric tonne) Forward Curve DAP fob Tampa DAP fob NOLA (short ton) Forward Curve DAP fob NOLA

This comment and analysis has been prepared by FIS for the purpose of trading and may have been acted upon by FIS and its officers, employees and its associated

companies and is distributed to customers and to the general public for information purposes only and cannot be relied upon as a trading

recommendation and does not constitute a solicitation to trade. FIS Ltd. is regulated by the FSA. © 2011 Freight Investor Services Limited

FWThursdayMarketsReport08Sep2011

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