Fuzzy spatial multi-criteria decision making for ...€¦ · Fuzzy spatial multi-criteria decision...

Fuzzy spatial multi-criteria decision making for monitoring low volume forest road under steep terrain

Sattar Ezzati1,2, Akbar Najafi2, Pete Bettinger2

1Department of Forest Resource Management, Forest Planning, SLU2Department of Forestry, University of Tarbiat Modares3School of Forestry and Natural Resources University of Georgia

SSAFR 2015 – 16th Symposium for Systems Analysis in Forest Resources 19-21, Uppsala, Sweden

Presentation outline

Introduction

Problem definition

Methodology

Model calibration

Case study description

Results

Research highlights

Fuzzy spatial multi-criteria decision making for monitoring...

A Low-volume forest road network benefits access for low price timber management fire risk management water conservation and biodiversity

How to provide road system efficient while limiting adverse effects of road project?

change microclimate of forests ecosystem contributing in sedimentation into streams threat aquatic-life habitat

Problem definition

Therefore, in forest road management atmosphere, it is necessary consider not only

the economic advantageous but also environmental objectives and constrains .

To able to simultaneously consider multipurpose

of road management; it is necessary to include

into the forest planning efforts through the regular

road monitoring programs.


Deep thinking

Solution…

Culter et al. 2006; Abdi et al. 2009;Hayati et al. 2013

MCDM

Dube et al., 2004; Aruga., 2004

SCDM

An intensive managing of forest road network is complex and typically has multi-objective nature in

mountain ecosystem, in particular when environmental regulations are incorporated into economical

objectives makes the task even more complicate for forest engineers.


DecisionSupport Systems in Forestry[FDSS]

Forest Management Decision Support Systems (FMDSS)

Classical or Fuzzy MCDM ?

Classical MCDM

Consider tangible and intangible criteria based on Unbalance scale of judgments ineffective in real-world problem where information is fuzziness and impreciseDecision with bias due to ignore some uncertainty

Fuzzy-based MCDM [FMCDM] Translate limit value of subjective expression into interval judgments [Fig left] Consider uncertainty in decision making approach Handle complex decision situation where limited information exists


(a) Boolean Logic. (b) Multi-valued Logic

0 1 10 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1001 10

.

FMCDM

Objectives of research

propose a hierarchical system for monitoring low-volume forest road subject to environmental impacts in steep terrain

construct a fuzzy prioritization procedure on basis of AHP (FAHP) for criteria evaluation and alternative assessment under fuzziness conditions on basis of FTOPSIS approach.

integrate the fuzzy MCDM outputs with mathematical optimization for scheduling maintenance regime during a 10yr planning of horizon.


Flowchart of the fuzzy MCDM approach for criteria weighting and alternative evaluation

Model validation

field checking to visually compare the results (Kangas,1993).

standard sensitive analysis (SSI) to make divergence criteria using relative

influence of each criterion (Mosadeghi et al. 2015).

calculating benefit: cost ratio (BCR) (Coulter et al. 2006).


Cat.# 46,North of Iran

Location of study site

The study site is located in the Tarbiat Modares University Educational and Experiments Forest (TMUEF), North of Iran. The site area is mountainous that lies between 36°31' N and 36° 32' N latitude, and 51° 47' E and 51° 47'E longitude. The total length of main road network, by about 12-km with gravel surface, that is divided into three sections according to forest engineer's recommendation

The most importance criteria are underlined

LC3=drainage systemAC3=distance from to a streamAC1a=road surface qualityAC1d=water bar structure SSC2=cutslopeSSC7=technical capability SSC2a=road slope SSC5f=cut-and-fill slopesSSC8a=understory vegetation typeSSC8b=overstory vegetation type

Decision tree structure for monitoring low-volume forest road is steep terrain

Results

Differantial criteria in low-volume road monitoring program

Differential criteria Global periority

Influence index (%)

drainage system 0.063 22.34

geology features 0.063 22.34

soil texture 0.134 48.55

elevation A.S.L. 0.070 25.36

cutslope 0.171 61.96

road slope 0.323 32.48

road quality (one or two lane) 0.024 15.29

bio-engineering material 0.004 2.55

road surface quality 0.246 24.68


Results

Final ranking of different road segments subject to environmental impacts based on FTOPSIS procedure.

Algorithm Attributes Road segment(s)

RS1 RS2 RS3

S+ 6.250 15.160 7.150

S- 5.170 5.390 7.600

CCi+ 0.453 0.262 0.515

Normalized Ci+ 0.368 0.213 0.419

Ranking(TOPSIS) 2 3 1

Benefit cost ratio 0.087 0.050 0.074

Ranking(CBR) 1 3 2

Note: S determine the ideal (S+)and worst (S-) alternatives, respectively, and CC is

closeness coefficient


Results

Maintenance scheuling model

Results

Scheduling of maintenance regime for all road segment using IP approach

Road segment No.Drainage regime Maintenance regime

Cost to complete ($) Period project Cost to complete ($) Period project

1 4539.43 7 679.91 5

2 4413.52 4 869.89 9

3 5849.72 2 1065.98 5


Results

Sensitivity analysis (SA)

A) SA for road-related sediment & soil loss criterion

B) SA for road-related landslide criterion C) SA for road-related aquatic criterion

A ∓ 50% deviation in weight of criteria is used to examine the performance and reliability of alternative outranking by FMCDM model.

Results

0.16

0.26

0.36

0.46

0.56

-5% -4% -3% -2% -1% 0 1% 2% 3% 4% 5%

change%

Alt

.

0.16

0.26

0.36

0.46

0.56

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

change%

Alt

.

0.16

0.26

0.36

-5% -4% -3% -2% -1% 0 1% 2% 3% 4% 5%

change%

Alt

.

Alt# 1-[FAHP]

Alt# 2-[FAHP]

Alt# 3-[FAHP]

Remarks

Public awareness of environmental issues has increased constantly in the last few years, because most forest activities responsible for destroying the environment.

Results showed that more flexibility of fuzzy approach in ranking orders of the criteria and sub-criteria, regardless of different importance weights, in comparted with the crisp methods that in line with previous researches (Mosadeghi et al. 2015).


However there are so many factors can be considered in road monitoring and assessment program, but there are no exact common criteria in this area.

Application Fuzzy method v.s., conventional method led to define the ‘’differential criteria’’ by diverging of the global priorities for better and efficient monitoring of road project.

Remarks

The MCDM results highlighted sediment and soil loss criterion as major negative impact of road project.

A large number of researches have pointed out that as a major detrimental factor to low-volume forest road especially when it occurs at stream crossing

And may contribute in sedimentation yield, affect the distribution of overload flow, and finally change the hydrology process.


Remarks

Raised sediment from low-volume forest road

may associated with

road slope,

hillslope gradient

technical road capability; road surface quality.

The natural vegetations cover can

be taken into account as a

dispersive pathways infiltration

in combats with transporting sediment down to a stream

and disturbing the aquatic zones.

These results are cope wih (Croke et al. 2005; Akay et al. 2007).


Remarks

Take advantage of optimization mathematical enable us to improve the subjective evaluations and propose a numerically assigning of maintenance activity during the planning of horizon successful.

Reglar maintenance plan :

More availability for intended uses/ road stockholders

Reduce total cost of maintenance over the period of planning

Protect road structure

Increased amortization period of road structure


Remarks

Research Highlights

Proposed the DSS framework for monitoring road network subject to environmental impacts in steep terrain based on Fuzzy approach system.

Deriving divergence criterai for quick assesment of road network that would be appropriate tool in road network monitoing program.

Proposed a numerical integrated approach can be easily used as a practically tool for road management endeavors subject to annually monitoring low-volume forest road and contributing either in decreasing the adverse impact on adjacent ecosystems or in saving the cost-investments for road network during life cycle of project.

By making minor adjustments for local conditions, this decision framework can be adapted for many other regions and forested ecosystems.


Thank you!

Heart of the Hyrcanian the Forests, North of Iran

Sattar EzzatiDepartment of Forestry, University of Tarbiat Modares, Iran.

Department of Forest Resource Management, Forest Planning, SLU, Umeå.

[email protected]; [email protected]

Akbar NajafiDepartment of Forestry, University of Tarbiat Modares,Iran.

[email protected]

Pete BettingerSchool of Forestry and Natural Resources University of Georgia,USA

[email protected]

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