Futurism for BusinessWhy the skills of foresight and adaptation are

critical to sustainable success

Tom Cheesewright, Applied Futurist@bookofthefuturetomcheesewright.com/visionone

Agenda

• Part 1: Why we need more futurists• High Frequency Change

• Part 2: Athletic organisations• Senses | Decisions | Shape

• Part 3: Scanning the horizon• Near and far

• Intersections

• Close

Part 1: The age of uncertaintyWhy we need more futurists

We’ve spent 40 years focused on making everything lean.

It’s the wrong strategy for an age of high frequency change

Low Frequency Change

High Frequency Change

COVID-19

Adaptation beats optimisation in an age of uncertainty

Part 2: Athletic OrganisationsBuilding sustainable success

BUILD AN ATHLETIC BUSINESS

Shape: Structure for today’s game

Senses: Look and listen

Decisions: Process and respond

Heighten Senses• Formal near-term horizon-scanning process every 6 months

POWER

• Accelerate flow of information from edge to core

• But more importantly…

• Push power from core to edge

INFORMATION

Accelerate Decisions

Networks not monolithsFLEXIBLE | RECONFIGURABLE | TRANSIENT

JeanLPicard ideas.lego.com

Part 3: ForesightHow to see the future

TIME

First Horizon Second Horizon Third Horizon

Approaches to foresight

TREND PROJECTION

“If what is happening now keeps happening, where will we end up?”

SCENARIO PLANNING

“Can we tell plausible stories about what might happen in the future to inform our thinking?”

INTERSECTIONS

“What happens when the trends we’re seeing collide with the pressures we’re facing?”

Heighten Senses• Formal near-term horizon-scanning process every 6 months

High Frequency Change

The Choice Explosion

Amplified Power

Accelerated Expectations

Networked Organisations

Five key trends, powered by tech

Exercise: Pressure Points

• What frustrates you most at work?

• What stops you doing your best work each day?

• What are your colleagues’ biggest concerns?

• What are your customer’s biggest challenges or complaints?

• What do you think keeps your chief executive up at night?

• What are the big challenges for your wider industry?

Intersections

HIGH FREQUENCY CHANGE

INCREASED CHOICE

AUGMENTED POWER

ACCELERATED EXPECTATIONS

NETWORKED ORGANISATIONS

PRESSURE POINT

METRIC IMPACT

Slow decision-making

Response time torelevant news events

INCREASE

Shortage of new recruits

Time to pick crop DECREASE (with automation)

Close

High frequency change has created an age of uncertainty

Future-proof organisations are reshaping to respond

Be more athletic! SENSES | DECISIONS | SHAPE

Use foresight to see what’s next

INTERSECTIONS = TRENDS + PRESSURE POINTS

Questions?Find more at tomcheesewright.com/visionone

Tom Cheesewright, Applied Futurist@bookofthefuturetomcheesewright.com