Futures Presentation by Karl Albrecht at DMAI's 2013 CEO Forum (Marco Island)
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Transcript of Futures Presentation by Karl Albrecht at DMAI's 2013 CEO Forum (Marco Island)
“How to be Your Own Futurist”
- Dr. Karl Albrecht -
Destination MarketingAssociation International
CEO ForumApril 24, 2013Marco Island
Destination MarketingAssociation International
CEO ForumApril 24, 2013Marco Island
“I’m all for progress, butit’s been going on far too long.”
~ Ogden Nash
The “Oh-S***” Future
Whose “Future” Do You Believe?The “Gee-Whiz” Future
What is the Answer?
How Do We Studythe Future of Something?
?
“Forget it, Louis -no Civil War picturehas ever made a nickel.”~ Irving Thalberg, business Adviserto Louis B. Mayer, who turned down“Gone With the Wind,” 1937
GONEwith theWIND
Famous Bad Calls
“Robert Goddard’stheories aboutspace travelare too far-fetchedeven to be considered.”~ Scientific AmericanMagazine, 1940
Famous Bad Calls
Famous Bad Calls
“We will bury you.And you capitalistswill sell us the shovelsto do it with.”~ Nikita Khrushchev,Premier of USSR, 1962
Famous Bad Calls
“I see no reason whyanyone would needa computerin their home.”~ Ken Olsen, founder ofDigital Equipment Corp.,1977
Famous Bad Calls
Ten Things that Will Disappear?
• US Postal Service
• The Personal Check
• The Newspaper
• The Magazine
• The Book
• The Land-Line Phone
• Television
• The Personal Computer
• Privacy
• Colleges / Universities
There Will Always be New Ideas
Square Watermelons?
Low-budget Funerals?
Musical Taser?
New Fashions?
Space Tourism?
Underwater Hotels?
Electronic Tombstones?
The Digital Outhouse?
You’re Always Connected…
Offered Without Comment ...
Social Networking
The Media-Centric Culture
Tech-savvy?
Or, media-addicted?
Figuring out
the new rules
of the game
Strategic Thinking
StrategicPlanningR.I.P.
What Happened to “Strategic Planning”?
Strategic PlanningHas Become…
The “Strategic Conversation”
The “Strategic Radar” Model
Customer
Competitor
Economic
Techno-logicalSocial
Political
Legal
Geo-physical
“Radar” Sector Super Trend
Customer “Proliferating Preferences”
Competitor “The Battle for Attention”
Economic “Dodging Asteroids”
Technological “Smart and Friendly Websites”
Social “The Electronic Culture”
Political “The Quest for Relevance”
Legal “Mixed Signals From Government”
Geophysical “Going Green”
Destination Marketing: “Super-Trends”
Yourmost dangerous
competitorprobably doesn’t
look like you.
TourOperators
Hotels / Lodging
VisitorAttractions
Other Local Visitor Svcs
Airlines /Transport
Destination Infrastruct.
ConferenceExhibitors
ConventionSales
Out-of-townOrganizers
DMO SalesTeam
EventMgmt Firms
Local Organizers
Travel Resellers
Group/TourPackagers
DMO Role: Advise and Support Marketers
Marketing & Sellingto the Visitor
IndustryPartners
CommunityLeaders
LocalGovernments
Developing the Destination
Visitor-Centric Strategic Map for DMOs
Delivering Servicesto the Visitor
DMO Role: Advocate the Total Visitor Experience
DMO Role: Support & Develop the Dest’n Strategy
Publishers / Advertisers
Travel Mavens
Informing, Educating, & Advising the Visitor
DMO Role: Inform, Educate & Advise the Visitor
Visitors:Leisure /
Conference /Business
Who Manages the Visitor Experience?
The Cycle of Visitor Experience (CVE)
Visitor
POP’s
Points of Perception
(POP’s)
Planning
Departure
If the cycle is unmanaged, the quality of the visitor experience regresses to
mediocrity.
If the cycle is unmanaged, the quality of the visitor experience regresses to
mediocrity.
DestinationInfrastructure
DestinationInfrastructure
Arrival
The pursuit of mediocrity is
always successful.
Karl Albrecht
The pursuit of mediocrity is
always successful.
Karl Albrecht
Resources for D.I.Y. Futurists
World Future Society:www.wfs.org
Trend Spotting: www.shapingtomorrow.com
“No problem can be solvedfrom the same consciousnessthat created it. We must learn
to see the world anew.”
- Albert Einstein
New Thinking for a New World
www.KarlAlbrecht.com/downloads/CEOForum2013.pdf
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