Futures Frameworks Simulation

Melanie Swan Principal

MS Futures Group+1-650-681-9482

[email protected]

November 9, 2009Slides: http://slideshare.net/LaBlogga/slideshows

Future Frameworks Simulation Workshop

Image: http://wall.alphacoders.com/

“The future is something which every one reaches at the rate of sixty miles an hour,

whatever he does, whoever he is.”- C. S. Lewis

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Future frameworksNovember 9, 2009

Futures analysis techniques

Short term (0-5 yrs): some degree of insight and certainty Forecasting Scanning Business intelligence Trend analysis Market research Outlier identification Technology evaluation

checklist

Long term (5-20+ yrs): uncertainty, discontinuity Frameworks Scenario planning Simulation Wild-carding Longitudinal studies

Multiple time frames Prediction markets Image: Bill Frymire

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The problem: pervasive change

BotnetsChromallocyte Life extension

Swarm computing

Synthetic biology

Virtual realityQuantum computing

Genomics

22 nm

Electric vehicles

3D printing

Smart phonesSupercomputing

3D printing

Neuroimaging

DIYbio

Automatic markets

Cloud computing

Programmable matter

Autonomous robotics

New battery chemistryAffordable space launch

4G

Cyber terrorism

Pandemic

Molecular nanotechnology

Algal fuel

Minimal genomes Brain-computer interfaces (BCIs)

Body area networks (BANs)

Radiosurgery

Cell broadband enginePositional assembly

Peer-to-peer finance

RFID

Post-scarcity economy

Smartgrid

Rich attribute knowledge

Fuel cell

Nanoparticles

Agalmics

Knowledge engineeringSolar power

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The solution: futures frameworks

1. Technological level

2. Dimensional model

3. Chronological model

4. Velocity paradigms

5. FutureThink principles

6. Conceptual shifts

7. Underlying drivers

8. Trajectory intersection

Image: http://www.newsin3d.com

Image: http://www.secondlife.com

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1. Technological level

Level 1 Enabler: Capability Research Labs

Level 2 Enabler: Technology

Startups

Level 3 Enabler: Application Corporations

Level 4 Enabler: Implication

Societies

Mechanosynthesis New battery

chemistry Exaflop

computing Knowledge

representation 4G / WiMAX 22 nm node chips Long DNA

sequence reads 1 GB broadband


Next-gen batteries

Natural language processing

TV on mobile phones

Facial recognition Whole human

DNA & RNA sequencing

Neuroimaging

Molecular synthesizer

Electric vehicles Artificial intelligence Brain-computer

interface 3D printer Million member

clinical trial cohorts Digital human

mindfile iPhone FaceConnector

Post-scarcity economy

Geopolitical shifts Gas-powered cars

obsolete Global service

economy outsourced to automation

Chronic disease disappears

Remote medical diagnosis

Capability, technology, application or effect?

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2. Dimensional model

Nanotechnology

Medicine, Neuroscience and Human Enhancement

Biotechnology and Bioinformatics

Artificial Intelligence and Robotics

Energy and Environmental Systems

Networks and Computing Systems

A unifying framework for SU track synthesis

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The ultimate future depends on the order in which advances arrive

3. Chronological model

Artificial intelligence


Anti-agingtherapies

Whole human genome New computing

paradigm

Robotics

Neural implants

Electric vehicles

Affordable space launch

3D printing

Synthetic biology

Space-basedcivilization

New energy regime

Uploading

Modification of human

biological drives

Time (years)2009-2020 2020-2030 2030-2050+10 +20 +40

Brain emulation

Room- temperature

superconductivity

Mechanosynthesis

1 GB broadband Battery innovation

THz computing era

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4. Velocity: paradigms of growth

Linear Economic, demographic, life span phenomena

Exponential Technology: processors, memory, storage,

communications, iPhone applications

Discontinuous Plane, car, radio, wars, radar, nuclear

weapons, satellites, computers, Internet, social networks

Difficult to predict Rapid transition time and doubling capability Adjacent technology advances

Exponential

Discontinuous

Linear

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4. Discontinuity and adjacent advances

Technology or Application Made possible by…

iPod / MP3 players Disk miniaturization, longer battery life, business model for music download

Blue Brain cortical simulation project Neuroimaging, infrared-DIC videomicroscopy, neuronal simulation software

Protein folding simulation reaching to 1 ms Distributed computing, GPUs, Markov State models

Telepresence Converged corporate telecoms services

CardioMEMS Applying MEMS technology to pacemakers

Zeno empathic robot – Hanson Robotics Battery, nanoporous materials advances1

De novo enzyme design (Houk2) Molecular dynamics, computational chemistry

Nokia mobile phone leadership Digital technology (vs. Motorola’s analog)

Nanoparticles/improved cancer treatment Molecular biology, molecular manufacturing

Rapid prototyping and simulation RepRap, Fab@Home, 3D organ printing

Political campaigns (B Obama, R Paul, H Dean) Social media, online fundraising

1Source: http://www.hansonrobotics.com/Hanson-Robots_March-14-09.pdf2Source: http://www.chem.ucla.edu/houk/research.htm

Innovation is interdisciplinary and interstitial

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5. FutureThink: the mindset of the future

Increase in humaneness Slavery, capital punishment

Increase in choices Segment expansion (TiVo wedge) Multiple choices, not either/or

Decrease in limitations Earth habitability and carrying

capacity

Continuation of conflict Bioterror, surveillance, computer

security

Image: http://aki54.wdfiles.com

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6. Conceptual shift: science

Model and simulate

Enumerate and

experiment

Build

BioSpice.orgSimTK.org

PartsRegistry.orgGeneGo (pathway modeling)

Entelos virtual patient biosimulation

FabAtHome.org

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6. Conceptual shift: health

Future Health: Layers of Preventive Medicine

Patient

2. Preventive CareHealth Advisor

Genomic Medicine

3. Traditional health care industry and specialists

1. Automated digital health monitoring

Patient

2. Preventive CareHealth Advisor

Genomic Medicine

3. Traditional health care industry and specialists

1. Automated digital health monitoring

MS Futures Group, October 2009

Source: http://futurememes.blogspot.com/2009/10/preventive-medicine-and-docs-vs.html

Out of work due to technological advance: elevator operator, stock broker, physician (?)

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Penryn (45 nm)(65 nm) Nehalem Core i7 (45 nm)

Westmere i9 (32 nm) (est.)Ivy Bridge (22 nm) (est.)

7. Underlying drivers

Source: http://www.kurzweilai.net/pps/SU_Executive_Program/

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7. Computing paradigm shifts

?

Source: http://www.kurzweilai.net/pps/SU_Executive_Program/

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7. Evolving computational modelsCurrent model extensibility

Linear, von Neumann

ParallelCloud, grid, distributed

Biological models

Novel electronic models

Traditional model

QuantumOptical

computingCell

broadband engine Liquid

computer

New materials New

architectures: 3D stackingProgrammabl

e matter Molecular

electronics

DNA nanotech DNA

computing

BiosensorsCellular colonies

Bacterial intelligence Bioparadigm

discovery

Space, not time-based

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7. ITRS1 semiconductor roadmap

1International Technology Roadmap for SemiconductorsSource: http://download.intel.com/technology/silicon/Paolo_Semicon_West_071904.pdf

Intel: 2-3 more cycles of Moore’s Law planned Followed by 3-D architectures, programmable matter

2009

Node: half the distance between

cells in a DRAM chip

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7. A central challenge in computing Top-down solutions

EUV and block copolymer lithography CNT transistors Memristor Quantum-dot cellular automata Plasmonic materials & spintronics Quilt packaging & 3D stacking

Bottom-up solutions DNA self-assembly DNA computing DNA-based transistors 3D DNA nanocrystals Molecular memory Structural DNA:

Holliday junctionRotaxane Molecular propeller

Source: http://futurememes.blogspot.com/2009/05/opportunities-in-level-two-nanoscience.html

Nanoscience

32 nm 10 nm

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8. Trajectory intersection

Machine Human IBM Roadrunner 1.105 petaflop/s (>1,100

trillion IPS) and 80 TB memory1

Unlimited operational/build knowledge Quick upgrade cycles: performance

capability doubling every 18 months Linear, von Neumann architecture Understands rigid language Special purpose problem solving (Deep

Blue, Chinook, ATMs, fraud detection) Metal chassis, easy to backup

An estimated 20,000 trillion IPS and 1,000 TB memory2

Limited operational/build knowledge Slow upgrade cycles: 10,000 year

evolutionary adaptations Massively parallel architecture Understands flexible, fuzzy language General purpose problem solving,

works well in new situations Nucleotide chassis, no backup possible

1Source: Top 500, June 2009, http://www.top500.org/lists/2009/06, http://www.crn.com/hardware/2084031862Source: http://paula.univ.gda.pl/~dokgrk/bre01.html

Arms race for the future of intelligence

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Source: http://www.kurzweilai.net/pps/SU_Executive_Program/1http://www.top500.org/lists/2009/06, http://www.top500.org/system/89682http://paula.univ.gda.pl/~dokgrk/bre01.html

Average human: an estimated 20,000 trillion IPS

and 1,000 TB memory2

IBM Roadrunner: 1.1 petaflop/s (>1,100 trillion IPS) and 80 TB memory1

8. Full human neural simulation est: 2018

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8. Engineering life into technology

20291

Machine

Human

Human′ ?Capability

Year

Source: MS Futures Group, March 2009

Biomolecular interface convergence

1Source: The Singularity is Near

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Futures frameworks review

1. Tech level 2. Dimensional 3. Chronological 4. Velocity

5. FutureThink 6. Conceptual shifts 7. Drivers 8. Intersection

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Prediction markets

Speculative market Purpose: make predictions Value: expose hidden

information Pay-off: monetary,

reputational, indirect Accuracy: better than

conventional forecasting1

Examples: InTrade, IEM, HSX, LongBets

Structure Event outcome (win/loss) Market scoring (continuum)

1Source: Arrow, K.J. et al “The Promise of Prediction Markets” Science, 2008, 320, 5878, 877-878 http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/summary/320/5878/877

Iowa Electronic Markets: 2008 Democratic Convention Market

Clinton

Obama

Image: http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/1/13/IEM_DCON2008.svg

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Futures simulation workshop

STR – Political, Economic, Legal, Social Institutions

NAN – Nanotechnology

LIF – Life Sciences (Biotechnology & Medicine)

AIC – AI, Robotics, Computing and Communications

ENE – Energy, Environmental Systems and Space

You are the world’s leading venture capitalists 5 teams, $1 billion to invest

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Futures simulation workshop

Image: Natasha Vita-More, Primo Posthuman

Round 1: 2009 – 2020 Each team creates two

plausible future technology ideas to pitch to the other teams

Each person votes by investing in the top technologies

Winning teams and technologies are those that garner the most investment

Thank you

Melanie SwanPrincipal

MS Futures Group+1-650-681-9482

[email protected]

Slides: http://slideshare.net/LaBlogga/slideshows

Creative Commons 3.0 license

DIAMANDIS KURZWEIL

Well, Ray, we’re still waiting for the jet pack

Futurism 2050

DIAMANDIS KURZWEIL

Well, Ray, we’re still waiting for the jet pack

Futurism 2050

Image: http://wall.alphacoders.com/

Futures Frameworks Simulation

Technology

Transcript of Futures Frameworks Simulation