TEC/NOLOGKAL FORECASTIIVG AND SOClAL CHANGE 6, -’ ? 339 (1974) 333

Robefi Theobald, Futu?w Chditionul, The Bobbs-Merrill Co., Indianapolis and New York, 1972.

Robert l’hobald and J-M. Scott, T&s 1994, An Anticipation of the Near Future, The Swallow Press Inc., Chicago, 1972.

TO a growing numba of books on the future, the above two books are welcome additions, since their purpose, style, concepts and organization differ from many other books on the subject. Both books exhibit creativeness and provide refreshing reading.

First, let US turn to Ftltwcs Conditional. This book contains selected writings on the future by a variety of authors and in a variety of forms ranging from fascinating science-fiction stories by Asimov, Bradbury, and Heinen to essays by Kahn, Wiener, Reich. and others, a few poems and verses, some cartoons and slogans. The purpose can be stated in Theobald’s words: ‘*This book is designed to help you perceive the future mo*e vividly. It has been written because we can for the first time, choose the future we des’re . . . This book is in a profound sense a Rorschach test”. More importantly, Theobald professes the use of systems thinking in constructing the future rather than regarding it as predetermined.

7’~ bring out the importance of systems thinking, Theobald presents a variety of viewpoints on the future. These viewpoints represent three schools of thought:

(a) extrapolators-those who believe the future is fixed and that the present trends will continue regardless of any human attempts to change it. For instance, the writings of K&n, Wiener, and Toffler.

(b) romantics or creatists-those who believe that a better society would evolve as a result of continuing changes in consciousness. For instance, the writings of Reich.

(c) systems thinkers-those who recognize and understand the coming changes and trends and create methods to move “the present future into the conditional future”, employing systems approach. Eacf, of these viewpoints is presented through selected works. In many instances, the reader is asked to identify the viewpoint which a particular essay or article professes. One many wonder, however, if the material in the book may have been selected so as to highlight systems thinking. As Theobald states in the preface to the book: “I believe that each of us has his own biases and beliefs and that the best we can do is to state them clearly”. This reader found the representation of the three views balanced.

The book is divided into four parts: Part I, entitled “How People Think About the Future’“, consists of three science-fiction stories and essays that point out various way; of looking at the future. Part II, “Choosing Your Views of the Future”, contains material selected to give the reader a view of some current thinking on the future and to encourage the reader to build his own understanding of the subject. Part III, entitled “Refining Your View of the Future”, attempts to encourage the reader to participate in creating and

imagining the future. Part Iv, “Basic ‘Tools for Your Ftlture Imllgining”, outlines to&

a,ld resources suggested by the author to help the reader in determining the tYPe @f future he wishes to live in. But unlike rhe first three parts, Part IV lacks versatility and

depth in its presentation.

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