Future water use and the challenge of hydropower development in western Balkan, 11-13 February 2013

EEA activities in Western Balkan region related to forward-looking assessments

SESSION 3: Introduction to getting to know WB scenariosAnita Pirc Velkavrh, EEA

ENVIRONMENTAL TRENDS AND PERSPECTIVES IN THE WESTERN BALKANS: FUTURE

PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION PATTERNS:

2

forces shaping the future of the environment in the Western Balkans, in particular the role of consumption and production patterns

Different futures

State

Driving forces

2010

Caucasus

3

Global workshop

OSCE-EEA: Regional security implications of climate change impacts

Regional workshops

Global driving forces Regional Scenarios

Eastern Europe

Food security

Western Balkans

Water availability

Arctic

MediterraneanCentral Asia

Water-energy-agriculture nexus

2010 2011 2013

Regional to Global workshop

Impacts to securityAssessment;Environment and security key messages

2012

SOER 2010 — assessment of global megatrends

Shifting Bases, Shifting Perils, A Scoping Study of Security Implications of Climate Change in the OSCE Region

EEA Brochure: Using scenarios as tool for better understanding environment and security issues

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OPPORTUNITIES FOR DEVELOPMENT IN THE WESTERN BALKANS IN THE CONTEXT OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS AND WATER SCARCITY

EXPLORATIVE SCENARIO WORKSHOP BELGRADE, SERBIA, 24-26 OCTOBER 2011

 

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Worksop question:

What are the options for developments in western Balkan region to hedge risks associated with climate change and water availability?

Outcomes:

1. Scenarios on impact of climate change to water availability in WB until 2060

2. Key risks which may occur in 4 scenarios

3. Pathways to some goals to hedge the risks

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1.SCENARIO QUESTION

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Group 1

8

Group 2

9

Group 3

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2. Most important and most uncertain driving forces in WB:

• Climate change impacts (high-low) - preselected one selected at the workshop:• Land use changes (favourable- unfavourable)• Economic growth (investment, recovery)• Real resources cost and affordability (availability)

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12

13

SFRJ (socialistic federative Republic of Yugoslavia)

 Equality

Quite high quality of lifeGood knowledge base

Good environment managementIntegrated water management, strong policies and cross border agreement,

renewable energy dominating

Endless horror 

poverty, hopeless, run to the hills, the day after tomorrow., deteriorated environment

,spiral development to negative 

high water scarcity, extreme events not managed leading to further deterioration of

economy  

Horror without end 

poverty, hopeless, run to the hills, ecosystems recovery

drinking water deficit, scarcity in general, water use in agriculture mainly

 

Yes, we can, Technogarden in Balkan 

Green and rich and can tackleIntensive resource use, controlled,

technology driven  

Ground water drop, import of water from Russia, energy dependant on imports

 

Climate change impacts

Eco

nom

ic g

row

th

Sustainable

highlow

Un-sustainable

3. Selected scenarios axes and developed scenarios

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