Future Trends

InfrastructureThe Urban Age

1900

1.7People(Billion)

% Living in Cities 10%

CitiesGreater than1 Million 16

2007

6.5

50%

450

2050

9.0

75%

600

Water Insecurity

Decline in Food Production

Heat Waves

InfrastructureTransition Phase - Uncertainty

Emissions Trading Scheme

ClimateAdaptation

Multiple Renewable Energy Options

Rise in global middle class – materialists

How can we:

• Lead & influence other cities?

• Make sustainability an aspiration?

Challenges

Local Trends

CoM Population GrowthForecast

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021

Pop

ulat

ion

Forecast

Aging Population

Strong MigrationMulticulturalism

Strong Demand for Housing

InfrastructureCity User Projections

0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

2006 2011 2016 2020

Year

Nu

mb

er o

f C

ity

Use

rs

Forecast

Transport

Car drivers and passengers

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

1996 2001 2006

Nu

mb

er

Public Transport

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

1996 2001 2006

Nu

mb

er

Bicycle

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

1996 2001 2006

Walked

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

1996 2001 2006

20%

8%111%

136%

Car(01-06)

Public Transport(01-06)

Bicycle(01-06)

Walked(01-06)

-5549

+13,193

+3,056

+6,757

Increased Imports

Melbourne Geelong Hastings Portland

0

10,000

20,000

60,000

50,000

40,000

30,000

2002-3

2030 (Base case forecast)

Ton

nes

(‘000

)

Source: COAG 2007

24 Hour City

Average Hourly Pedestrian Activity by Day

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23

Hour of the Day

Count

Monday

Friday

Saturday

Sunday

Local Climate Change Impacts

High rainfall (>20mm) results in a decrease in pedestrian activity of 10%

High temperature (>35 degrees) results in a decrease of 10.9%

Housing Affordability

The Age February 2008

Infrastructure

Aging Infrastructure

1905 Flinders Street Station

Commenced

1837 The Hoddle Grid

1985

Melbourne's City Loop was completed

1884 First underground drain constructed

in Carlton

2000City Square Opens

Domain Tunnel is opened

Westgate Bridge

Completed in 1978

1996Development of the Docklands

1889 Victoria Dock opened

Opportunities

Renewable Energy

Biomimcry

RenewableEnergyNano-Technology

Vertical Farming

Robotics

Communication Technology

Education

In this uncertain Transition phase, how can we:• Keep the cost of living relatively low• Deal with more variable weather • Maintain recreation facilities & city vitality • Deal with increasing congestion • Maintain social cohesion, public safely & security• Adjust to an aging population• Improve education standards & reduce skills shortages• Improve financial flows• Guard against spread of disease pandemics/epidemics

Maintaining Liveability