V.Ulziisaikhan PhD. Student of the University of Science and Technology, Ulaanbaatar MongoliaEmail: terelj@gmail.com

Renchin Mijiddorj, PhD., Prof.University of Science and Technology, Ulaanbaatar Mongolia

Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia. 2008

Future Trend of Mongolian Permafrost Distribution

INTRODUCTION

• Mean air temperature of Mongolia has increased 1.5C in the last sixty years (Mijiddorj et al., 1998).

• This research examined spatial relationship of permafrost with observed climate data

• Estimated permafrost distribution changes induced by future climate change.

METHODLOGY

The Logistic Regression Model

USED DATA

• IPCC data distribution center was main data source for this study.

• Observed global climate data is mean monthly data for air

temperature, 1961-1990. • Climate scenario data of general circulation numerical

model:– The UK Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research (HadCM2) – The German Climate Research Centre (ECHAM4)

Permafrost -Model VerificationCurrent Permafrost Distribution Permafrost distribution by the

logistic regression model

Future Trend of the Mongolian Permafrost Distribution

Predicted distribution by the ECHAM scenario, 2040

Predicted distribution by the ECHAM scenario, 2080

Predicted distribution by the ECHAM scenario, 2090

SUMMARY

• The model results indicate that observed permafrost distributions have a strong correlation with the temperature increases and that permafrost areas are going to continue to decrease in the forecast years 2040, 2070, and 2099.

• Brown, J., O.J. Ferrians, Jr., J.A. Heginbottom, & E.S. Melnikov. 1997. Circum-Arctic Map of Permafrost and Ground-Ice Conditions. United States Geological Survey, Circum-Pacific Map Series, CP-45. Reston, VA, USA. (ISBN 0-607-88745-1)