Future Technology Trends For the

Ultra Broadband Era

Mark Winther, Group VP Telecom

Broadband, Speed, Traffic Flows, Experience

OTT engagement model

Technology Futures Access, Video, Optronics, Virtualization

Future broadband challenges

Agenda

Broadband Connections Pass 1 billion in 2016

WW Fixed Broadband Connections (millions) Drivers Multi-screen

High definition++

Online gaming

OTT/IP TV

User-generated content

Enablers Video futures

Photonic chip futures

Network virtualization

728 805

882 950 1015 1074

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Source: IDC Worldwide Telecom Services Database, July 2013.

Speed Matters 100 Mb/s is the New 10 Mbp/s

Speed upgrades at no extra charge.

Synchronous services that match upload speeds with download speeds at no extra charge.

Solid ARPU driven by uptake of multi-play and TV services

From 3 Mb

6 Mb

12 Mb

15 Mb

30 Mb

50 Mb

100 Mb

To 20 Mb

50 Mb

100 Mb

200 Mb

300 Mb

500 Mb

1 Gb

1 Tb

Changing Traffic Patterns

Cloud & social are pushing more content UP the network

All Internet sharing starts with uploading

Smarter home gateways drive more content being moved around

Enhanced Media Servers

Multiple tuners, terabytes of storage

What Happens When 50B Machines Connect

Dramatically broad range of traffic patterns Challenge traffic engineering and management

Demand new service definitions (SLAs)

Smart Watch Chatty, Low bandwidth

Smart Train Session-based

Enormous bandwidth

Ultra BB is More than a Build & Sales

Property Management Network Marketing Distribution Product

Create fiber-ready buildings & neighbor-hoods

Relations with property mngrs

Community relationships

Incorporate intelligence into build planning

Lower cost equipment

External deployment

Target tenants & property owners

Build brand equity for fiber ready areas

Create fiber brand elements for SMB

New seller tools to target neighbor-hoods & buildings

Service delivery links for process improvement

Competitive priced E2E fiber services

Lower cost/lower SLA services

Consumer-like experience for SMB.

It is a transformation of the way to build and sell

Customer Experience

Better segmentation continuum of needs

How do you know when Facebook goes down? Fundamental flaw in managing customer experience.

How do you monitor to know you have a problem, and how do you respond when a customer does have a problem?

Digital first experience Self-service portals for subscriber self-monitoring

Embracing sophisticated users

Passive User Non-use of video streaming services and/or downloads

Power User Frequent use of video streaming

services and/or downloads

OTT Engagement Model

Fat Dumb Pipe

Standard business model owning the customer, providing the infrastructure. Little value-added beyond speed. Demand grows faster than revenue.

Smart Pipe

Evolved brokerage model -- Add value to subscriber and to OTT provider. Monetization through: policy control, billing, subscriber and network intelligence, CDNs, APIs.

OTT Participation Model

TV Everywhere

TV/web interaction

Open platform for service mash-up

Access Technologies Trends

FTTH speeds are impressive, but expensive Objectives

Prolong the copper lifecycle Integration of copper, fiber, wireless Optimize DSL and copper in rural areas

Targeted fiber rollout Transition from DSL to fiber in densely populated

fiber-hoods FTTdp and FTTB can be 30% cheaper than FTTH

Wireless local loop Economically extend the reach

FTTB

CO

CO

Fiber

FTTC/N Street Cabinet

Copper

FTTdp Fiber

Copper/VDSL CO

Emergence of Mixed Economies, Multi-Access Network

CO Fiber

Wireless Local Loop CO

Video Futures A Better Visual Experience Data will increase by 65x in next few years

4K UHDTV = 4 times the bandwidth of a HD signal

8K UHDTV = 16 times the bandwidth of a HD signal

4K HD SD

8K

4K/8K will be the first format that is Internet only. -Reed Hastings, Netflix

Photonic Chip Futures - Towards 1 Tb/s

Electrical Elements Photonic Elements..

Cost

Greener Density

Power Size

Multiple photonic components integrated onto a single chip, similar to the electronic integrated circuit.

Benefits of photonic integration are higher density, lower power, less space and lower TCO.

Improves network efficiency as we evolve to higher bit rates.

Network Futures - Virtualization

Real things

Multi-vendor interconnect.

Failover and resiliency in software.

Quick failure service designs.

User controls,

Role and extent of orchestration,

SDN interconnect,

Virtual CPE,

APIs are difficult to use.

Benefits

Operators are committed

DT TeraStream

Telefonica UNICA

AT&T Domain 2.0

Many others

It is not about 100% or nothing

The Programmable Network increases agility, reduces costs and speeds innovation applications.

Future Broadband Challenges

Vastly diverse use cases Videos and social feeds = speed, Applications & devices = reliability.

Demand more atomic tools Monitoring, Understanding bandwidth usage, Smart congestion management, Software-defined networks, Big data.