Future projections of water demands for energy - GWPC Newmark, Jordan Macknick, Maggie Mann ......

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Future projections of water demands for energy

Robin Newmark, Jordan Macknick, Maggie Mann

GroundWaterProtec.onCouncil2010AnnualForumSeptember28,2010

RobinL.NewmarkDirector,StrategicEnergyAnalysisCenter

NATIONAL RENEWABLE ENERGY LABORATORY

“Hot, Flat and Crowded” (Thomas Friedman, 2008)

Global Warming Water resources increasingly stressed Rise of the middle class

…all wanting to consume like Americans, with resource implications!

Population growth

Between now and 2020, there will be another 1 billion people in the world. If Tom gives each of them a 60W light bulb, it will require about 20 new 500-MW coal-burning power plants, just so they can turn on their light bulb. That requires about 160 billion gallons/day (nearly 500 acre-ft) of water to produce. If I give them each a glass of water, it will require almost another 200 acre-ft*!

* >65 million gallons

Subject of today’s discussion


0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

Geo

thermal‐dry

Geo

thermal‐wet

Biop

ower‐Tow

er

Biop

ower‐Ope

nLoop

Biop

ower‐pon

d PV

Wind

CSPTrou

gh‐W

et

CSPTower‐W

et

CSPTrou

gh‐Dry

CSPTower‐Dry

CSPTrou

gh‐Hybrid

CSPTower‐Hybrid

CSPSI

rling

CSPFresne

l

Nuclear‐Tow

er

Nuclear‐Ope

nLoop

Nuclear‐Pon

d

NG‐Com

bine

dCycle‐Tower

NG‐Steam

‐Tow

er

NG‐Com

bine

dCycle+CC

S‐Tower

NG‐Com

bine

dCycle‐Ope

nLoop

NG‐Steam

‐Ope

nLoop

NG‐Com

bine

dCycle‐Po

nd

NG‐Com

bine

dCycle‐DryCoo

ling

NG‐Steam

‐InletC

ooling

Coal‐Gen

eric‐Tow

er

Coal‐Sub

criIcal‐Tow

er

Coal‐Sup

ercriIcal‐Tow

er

Coal‐PC‐Tower

Coal‐IG

CC‐Tow

er

Coal‐PC‐with

CCS‐Tow

er

Coal‐IG

CC‐w

ithCCS‐Tow

er

Coal‐Gen

eric‐Ope

nLoop

Coal‐Sub

criIcal‐O

penLoop

Coal‐Sup

ercriIcal‐O

penLoop

Coal‐Fluidized

Bed

‐Ope

nLoop

Coal‐Gen

eric‐Pon

d

Coal‐Sub

criIcal‐P

ond

Coal‐Sup

ercriIcal‐P

ond

gal/MWh

WaterWithdrawalFactors(gal/MWh)Renewables Nuclear NaturalGas Coal

Allpossibletechnology‐coolingsystemcombinaIons Source: Macknick et al., in development

WorkInProgress


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0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

gal/MWh

WaterConsump.onFactors(gal/MWh)

WorkInProgress

Nuclear NaturalGas CoalRenewableTechnologies

(Macknicketal,inprep)

AddingCCSUSDOEissuppor.ngresearchincarboncapture


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356wind/CSPresourceregions134PowerControlAreas(PCA)17annualImeslices232‐yrImeperiods2006‐2050


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  ScenariosdevelopedinsupportofaProgramma.cEnvironmentalImpactStatement(PEIS)focusedonu.lity‐scalesolarenergydevelopment1.

  Currentenergypolicy(currentlyformulatedstateRPSgoals,nocarbonpolicy,nona.onalRPS)

  Availabletechnologies:  Conven.onals:Coal(pulverizedandIGCC),Gas‐CC,Gas‐CT,nuclear  Renewables:u.lity‐PV,CSP,wind(onshore/offshore),bio,geo,hydro  Storage:Compressedairenergystorage,pumped‐hydro,baWeries

  TechnologycostsfromBlackandVeatch,fuelprojec.onsfromAEO2010

  Regionalresourcelimita.ons,exclusionsbasedonlandconsidera.ons(resourceintensity,slope,protectedlands,incompa.blelanduse(e.g.,wetlands,urbanareas))

1InformaIonontheProgrammaIcEnvironmentalImpactStatement(PEIS)canbefoundath\p://solareis.anl.gov/eis/index.cfm


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  ReEDSop.mizeselectricsectorsystemcostevery2years,usinga20‐yrinvestmentperiod

  Expandsgenera.oncapacityandtransmissioncapacitytoensurethatregionaldemandandreliabilityrequirements(planningandopera.ngreserves)aremet

 Waterconsump.onfactorsforindividualtechnologiesareappliedtoresultsbyPCAregion

These results, from a single scenario, are illustrative of the potential evolution of the electricity sector.


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Totalwaterconsump.onforthepowersectorin2006byPCA

Waterintensityin2006byPCA

Source: Macknick et al., in development

Gal/MWh

Gallons

<0

>400

<0

>30 billion


10

2006

Waterintensity

Watercon

sump.

on


2050

Gal/MWh

<0

>400

Gallons

<0

>30billion

TotalgeneraIonhasincreased38%;waterconsumpIonhasdeclined7%

NaIonally,waterintensityisreducedby33%


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Waterintensityisreducedby33%na.onally,someareasseeincreases(especiallyinthesouthwest)

Waterusedeclinesby7%overall,someareasseeincreases


<-100%

>50%

Water intensity change (%)

Water consumption change(%)

<-100%

>50%


GeneraIonisdominatedbyfossilgeneraIon(renewablesrepresentamodest25%ofpordolio)

Renewablesresponsibleforonly~10%ofwaterconsumpIon


Wind

Solar‐CSP

Solar‐PV

Biopower

Geothermal

Hydro

Coal

Gas

Co‐fire

Nuclear

ElectricityGenera.on

Wind

Solar‐CSP

Solar‐PV

Biopower

Geothermal

Hydro

Coal

Gas

Co‐fire

Nuclear

WaterConsump.on


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Rela5velylowimpact,exceptinNE,NW


%Genera.on %Powersectorwaterconsumed

Totalwaterconsumed

<0%

>50%

<0%

>50%

Gallons

<0

>1 Billion


14

CSPPercentofTotalGenera.on


<0%

>25%

Wet‐cooled

Gallons

<0

>50Billion

Dry‐cooled

Gallons

<0

>50Billion

Gallons

<0

>50Billion

Hybrid‐cooled


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CSPPercentofTotalGenera.on

CSPusingdrycoolingcanresultinarela8velyminorpropor8onofpowersectorwaterconsump8onoverall


<0%

>25%

<0

>50

Wet‐cooled

%ConsumpIon

<0

>50

Dry‐cooled

%ConsumpIon


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SignificantwinddeploymentisanIcipated

Waterrequirementsarenegligible;Opportuni8esexistforsignificantavoidedwateruse,especiallyinthe

midwest


GWh

<0

>1000

<0%

>50%

%GeneraIon


17 *usingcurrenttechnologies

Atapenetra8onof25%,carboncaptureincreasesna8onalwaterconsump8onby18%


%Increase

<0%

>25%


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  Scenarioanalysessuchastheseindicatehowwaterdemandsbythepowersectormayevolve.‐  Refinementsandspecificstudiescanprovideaddi5onaldetail

  Technologychoicesmakeadifference‐Examples:wetvs.drycoolingforCSP,CCSimpacts

  Regionalaspectsareimportant.

  Cri.calnextsteps:linkingresultstowateravailability.

SpecialThanks

OfficeofEnergyEfficiencyandRenewableEnergy(EERE),DepartmentofEnergy(DOE),theBureauofLandManagement(BLM),DepartmentoftheInterior(DOI),

Ma\Mowers,DonnaHeimiller,NateBlair(NREL)

ThisworkwassupportedbytheU.S.DepartmentofEnergyunderContractNo.DE‐AC36‐08‐GO28308withtheNaIonalRenewableEnergyLaboratory.

Future projections of water demands for energy - GWPC Newmark, Jordan Macknick, Maggie Mann ......

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