FUTURE PROJECTIONS · 2019. 11. 16. · FUTURE PROJECTIONS Child populaon projecon Child care...

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FUTURE PROJECTIONS Child populaJon projecJon Child care spaces needed to maintain the 2019 access rate in the future Child care spaces needed to improve the access rate in the future

Transcript of FUTURE PROJECTIONS · 2019. 11. 16. · FUTURE PROJECTIONS Child populaon projecon Child care...

Page 1: FUTURE PROJECTIONS · 2019. 11. 16. · FUTURE PROJECTIONS Child populaon projecon Child care spaces needed to maintain the 2019 access rate in the future Child care spaces needed

FUTUREPROJECTIONS

ChildpopulaJonprojecJon

Childcarespacesneededtomaintainthe2019accessrateinthefuture

Childcarespacesneededtoimprovetheaccessrateinthefuture

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SQUAMISH’S GROWING CHILD POPULATION

ProjectedFutureNeeds

GRAPH:ProjectedChildPopula6on(Ages0-12)for2019,2021,2024,and2029.

3,894 4,1404,508

5,123

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

Year 2019 Year 2021 Year 2024 Year 2029

Proj

ecte

d N

umbe

r of C

hild

ren

(Age

0-1

2)

Between 2006 and 2016, the District of Squamish grew by an average of 2.4% per year, and was one of the fastest growing communities in Canada.

During the same time period, the growth rate for children aged 0-12 was significantly higher - an average of 3.5% annual increase.

This project assumes Squamish’s child population will continue to grow by 3.5% every year for the foreseeable future.

PROJECTEDFUTURECHILDCARESPACENEEDSTwoscenariosareimaginedbelow:(1)maintainingthecurrentchildcareaccessrateof21%and(2)increasingthechildcareaccessrateto30%,asrecommendedintheSquamishChildCareNeedsAssessment&Strategy2018-2023.SCENARIO1:MAINTAINTHECURRENTACCESSRATE(21%)MaintainingSquamish’scurrentaccessrateof21%isn’tgoodenough,butmaintainingitcouldbechallenginggiventhehighaverageannualgrowthrateforchildrenaged0-12inSquamish.AsmorefamiliesmovetoSquamish,doingnothingisn’tanopOonbecausethesituaOonwillquicklygetworsethanitalreadyis.

SCENARIO2:“REACH”TARGETACCESSRATE(30%)TheSquamishChildCareNeedsAssessmentandStrategy2018-2023idenOfieda30%accessrateasa“reach”target.30%wasselectedbecauseitalignswithandslightlyexceedstheprovincialaverageof27%in2015.Although30%issignificantlylowerthanthe55%accessrateinQuebecin2016,itisanambiOoustargetthatreflectstheextensiveneedforchildcareinourcommunity.Mee6ngthereachtargetwouldrequireincreasingthenumberofspacesby88%overthenexttenyears.

Thisrowshowshowmanynewspacesareneededbyeachselectedyear(2021,2024,2029)inordertomaintainthecurrentaccessrate.

Thisrowshowshowmanynewspacesneedtobebuilteveryyear,starOngin2019,inordertomaintainthecurrentaccessratebyeachselectedyear.

Thisrowshowshowmanynewspacesareneededbyeachselectedyear(2021,2024,2029)inordertoincreasetheaccessratetotherecommended30%.

Thisrowshowshowmanynewspacesneedtobebuilteveryyear,starOngin2019,inordertoreachthetargetaccessratebyeachselectedyear.

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REALITY CHECK #2Adding36spacesforinfants/toddlersoverthenext10yearsmightnotseemlikealot,butitwouldmeanadozennewfamilyhomedaycareswith3infant/toddlerspaceseach,or3newgroupdaycareswith12infant/toddlerspaceseach.

FOCUS ON INFANTS/TODDLERS

ProjectedFutureNeeds

REALITY CHECK #1 This project assumes Squamish’s child population will continue to grow by 3.5% every year for the foreseeable future. It’s worth noting that the annual growth rate for children aged 0-5 between 2006 and 2016 fluctuated significantly, but on average was actually higher: 5.2%. If this very high growth rate for young children continues, these child care space requirements could turn out to be underestimated.

Licensedspacesforinfants/toddlers(12-30months)arethehardesttocomebyinSquamish.Therearemorethantwiceasmanyfull-dayspacesforpreschoolagechildren(30-60months)thanthereareforinfants/toddlers.Thefollowingscenariosshowthenumberofinfant/toddlerspacesthatwouldbeneededtomeetthecurrentoverallaccessrateof21%andgobeyondtoachievethereachtargetof30%.

SCENARIO1:MAINTAINCURRENTACCESSRATE(21%)

SCENARIO2:“REACH”TARGETACCESSRATE(30%)

MAINTAININGBALANCENearlyhalfoftheinfantandtoddlerspacescurrentlyinSquamishareinfamilyhomedaycares.Familychildcarelicensespermitupto7children.DependingontheagecomposiOon,provincialregulaOonsspecifythattypicallyonly4ofthe7spacescanbeusedbychildrenunder48months,andonly2ofthosespacescanbeforchildrenunder24months.Asaresult,familydaycaresneedtohavearangeofagesofchildrenintheircareinordertofilltheirspacesandmakeitaviablebusiness.Inordertosupportthesesmallbusinesses,whicharesoessenOalforinfantandtoddlercareinSquamish,thereneedstobebalanceinthewaythatnewspacesareopenedinthecommunity.Forexample,iftoomanypreschoolagespacesbecomeavailable,ithasthepotenOaltomakeitharderforfamilydaycarestofillalloftheirspaces,whichcouldmeanalossofinfantandtoddlerspacesiffamilydaycarescan’tmakeendsmeet.

Whenmakingplansfornewchildcarespaces,needsforeachagegroup/licensetypeshouldbeconsidered,sincethecurrentaccessratesvarygreatlybygroup,andupseangthebalancecoulduninten6onallymakethesitua6onworsefortheagesforwhichcareismostneeded.

REALITY CHECK #393infant/toddlerspacesoverthenext10yearswouldrequiremorethan30newfamilyhomedaycareswith3infant/toddlerspaceseach,or8newgroupdaycareswith12infant/toddlerspaceseach.

MOST WANTED!

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STRATEGICACTIONS

HighestPriorityAcJonsIdenJfied

&Updated

AddiJonalAcJonsProposed

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44ac%onsareproposedintheSquamishChildCareNeedsAssessmentandStrategy2018-2023.Thefollowing13HighestPriorityAc1onshavebeeniden%fiedasneedinganextranudgeoranintermediarystepinordertomoveforward.TheSquamishChildCareAc%onPlanwillfocusonthesepriorityac%ons.Onlytangible,ac%onableitemshavebeenselected.

Thefollowingtablesincludeupdatesandnextstepsforeachhighestpriorityac%on,categorizedbyac%ontype:

•  Policy&Planning•  Partnerships&Collabora%on•  Informa%onSharing•  DirectSupport

PriorityAc1onTimeframe

KeyPartners

Nov2019Update

NextSteps Impact

1.3Settargetsforchildcarespacesinneighbourhoods/nodesandworkwithdevelopersinthedesignandbuildofin-kindchildcarespaces.Developapolicyframeworkforensuringspacesarededicatedforchildcareandrentedtonot-for-profitchildcareprovidersinperpetuity,andexplorepartnershipstoopera%onalizethesepolicies.

Shortterm

DOS,developmentcommunity,SSCS,childcareproviders

•  Targetsupdated.

•  MapstobeprovidedbyVCH(inprepara%on).

•  Developframeworkfordedica%on,rentalterms,explorepartnerships.

•  Lookforfutureopportuni%es.

•  SeeAddi1onalAc1onPoster#1.

High

1.4Reduceand/orremovebarrierstostar1ng/expandingachildcarefacilitythrough:•  ReviewingcurrentDistrictpoliciesandzoning,

communica%ngbuildingcoderequirementsandaddressingbarrierswhereverpossible;

•  Streamliningpaperworkrequirementsforchildcareproviders;and,

•  Encouragingstratacouncilstopermitresiden%alchildcarefacili%esintheirbylaws.

Shortterm,on-going

DOS,VCH,childcareproviders,communityagencies

•  DOSrequirementsunderreview.

•  GuidetoDOSrequirementsunderprepara%on.

Reviewdra[guidewithregulators(DOSandVCH)andcommunitytofinalize.

Low

2.1Increasechildcarespacesacrossallagegroupsandchildcaretypes(i.e.,infant-toddler,childrenwithextrasupportneeds,before-anda[er-school,summerop%ons).

On-going

DOS,VCH,developercommunity,childcareproviders

Dra[projec%onsandtargetsforspecificagegroupsprepared.

•  WorkwithCCRRandproviderstostrategize.

•  Lookforfutureopportuni%eswithdevelopmentreview.

•  SeeAddi1onalAc1onsPosters#1and#2.

High

2.2Priori1zenewchildcarefacili1esinneighbourhoodswithhighchildpopula1ons,aswellasaroundexis1ngandfutureplannedfamilyservicehubs,schools,senior’scentres,parksandBrennanParkRecrea1onCentretocreateandstrengthenchildcarehubsacrossSquamish

On-going

DOS MapstobeprovidedbyVCH(inprepara%on).

Createpoliciessuppor%ngopportuni%esforco-loca%on.

Low

2.4AdvancetheCommunityAmenityContribu1onframeworkwhereindevelopersbuildECEworkeraffordablehousingunitsheldforthepurposeinperpetuity.

On-going

DOS,developmentcommunity

DOSreviewoffeasibilityandrequirementstoadvanceworkforcehousing.

ModeratetoHigh

2.6Researchbestprac1cesforflexible,short-term/drop-inandevening/extendedhourchildcareop1ons.

Mediumterm

DOS,ChildCareStrategyimplementa%oncommi_ee

Reviewingprogramsinothercommuni%es.

•  Exploreop%onsfordrop-incarewithRecrea%onServices.

•  SeeAddi1onalAc1onPoster#3.

Low

Squamish Child Care Needs Assessment and Strategy

2018 to 2023 Prepared by SPARC BC

StrategicAc%ons–HighestPriorityCHILD CARE NEEDS ASSESSMENT & STRATEGY 2018-2023

PolicyandPlanning

Addi1onalAc1ons:Someofthepriorityac%onsintheSquamishChildCareNeedsAssessmentandStrategy2018-2023needmoredetailoranintermediarystep.PleaseseethededicatedexplanatorypostersforAddi%onalAc%ons1-3.

STRATEGICACTIONS–HIGHESTPRIORITY

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PriorityAc1onTimeframe

KeyPartners

Nov2019Update

NextSteps Impact

1.12Ini%atediscussionstodevelopachildcarepartnershipwithSchoolDistrict48thatmayinclude:•  Colloca%ngchildcarespacesat/withschools

throughcrea%veapproachesandjointmanagement;

•  Developingacatchmentareasystemforchildcarethathelpseaseyoungchildren’stransi%onintokindergarten;

•  StandardizingwagesacrossSchoolDistrictandECEtoreduceECEstaffloss;and,

•  Designa%ngachildcarechampionateachschooltoimplementthepartnershipattheschoollevel.

Shortterm,on-going

DOS,SD48,SSCS,communityagencies,childcareproviders

DOS,SD48,SSCSpartnershipisadvancingthroughprovincialfundingprovidedforchildcarefacilityatValleycliffeElementary.

•  Determinehowbesttomoveforwardforfutureopportuni%es.

•  Expandconversa%ontoincludeallsuggestedtopics.

High

1.13Brokerrela1onshipsbetweenorganiza1onswithunderusedspacesandbefore-anda^er-schoolchildcareproviders(e.g.,churches,ChiefCentre,senior’scentres)

On-going

DOS,SSCS,CCRR,communityagencies,childcareproviders

SeeAddi1onalAc1onPoster#2.

High

2.20Reducetransporta1onbarriersforbefore-anda^er-schoolcarebyofferingprogramsatschoolsthroughajoint-useagreementwithSD48.

Shortterm,on-going

DOS,SD48 SeeAddi1onalAc1onPoster#2.

High

PartnershipsandCollabora%on

PriorityAc1onTimeframe

KeyPartners

Nov2019Update

NextSteps Impact

2.13Consideralterna1vestofirst-comefirst-serveregistra1on,par%cularlyforbefore-anda[er-schoolandsummerchildcareop%ons.

Shortterm

Childcareproviders,SSCS,communityagencies,Recrea%onservices

SeeAddi1onalAc1onPoster#2.

Low

2.15Reducefinancialbarrierstopar1cipateincurrentsummercareop1ons(e.g.,gearrequirements,ou%ngs).

Shortterm

Recrea%onservices

SeeAddi1onalAc1onPoster#2.

Low

2.17Improveprogrammingforchildrenages7-12years-oldandexploreopportuni%esfor“middle-years”programsandservicesaswellasayoungeryouthcentreorspaces.

Shortterm,on-going

Childcareproviders,Recrea%onservices,DOS,SD48

SeeAddi1onalAc1onPoster#2.

High

DirectSupport

PriorityAc1onTimeframe

KeyPartners

Nov2019Update

NextSteps Impact

1.16Developcentralizedresourcesforwould-beandcurrentchildcareproviderstoreducebarrierstostar%ngand/orexpandingchildcarefacili%es(e.g.,how-toguide,website,adesignatedstaffresource/processnavigator).

Shortterm,on-going

DOS,VCH,childcareproviders

•  GuidetoDOSrequirementsinprepara%on.

•  Newchildcareprojectpageestablishedwithresourcelinks(www.squamish.ca/childcare).

Reviewdra[guidewithregulators(DOSandVCH)andcommunitytofinalize.

Low

Informa%onSharing

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IMPACT MEASUREMENT

Addi%onalAc%on#1

Inordertoproac%velyplanforchildcareandpopula%ongrowth,thisproposallinkstheimpactofnewresiden%aldevelopmentwithchildcarerequirements.

Squamishisgrowingfastandthisgrowthisverylikelytocon%nue.Whatneedstobebe_erunderstoodisthedirectimpactoflargerproposedresiden%aldevelopmentsonchildcarespaces.

Proposal:CreateaSquamish-specificformulaorcalculatortoes%matethenumberofchildrenthateachnewlargedevelopmentislikelytoaddtoourcommunity.Whatthisachieves:Thefirststeptoaddressingaproblemistomeasureit,andcloselykeeptrackofhowthingsarechangingover%me.Increasingunderstandingbymeasuringtheimpactofnewdevelopmentisrequiredtoaddressthechallenge.ThereisamechanisminBCforlocalgovernmentstoworkwithdeveloperstoaddressthenega%veimpactsofdevelopment–CommunityAmenityContribu%ons.Withmoreinforma%on,Councilwouldhavemoreflexibilitytoconsiderdetailedrequirementsforchildcarespaceprovisionaspartofamenitynego%a%onsduringlanddevelopment.WhoandWhen:ASquamish-specificformulawouldneedtobecreatedtocalculatetheimpactonchildcareofnewproposeddevelopment.Thees%matescollectedwouldneedtobeaggregatedperiodically.Cost:Li_le.Withasimpleformula,itwouldn’ttakemuchefforttouseameasurementtoolfornewlargedevelopments.Impact:Low.It’safirststepthatcouldleadtomore.

$

?

Impactmeasurement

Addi1onalAc1on#1isproposedasanintermediarysteptohelpachievethefollowingac%onsfromSquamishChildCareNeedsAssessmentandStrategy2018-2023:

Settargetsforchildcarespacesinneighbourhoods/nodesandworkwithdevelopersinthedesignandbuildofin-kindchildcarespaces.

Increasechildcarespacesacrossallagegroupsandchildcaretypes.

1.3

2.1

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EXPLORE AFTER-SCHOOL CARE POSSIBILITIES

Addi%onalAc%on#2

Schoolagekidsareagrowingpopula%onwhoneedmorea[er-schoolop%ons.Thisproposalisafirststeptowardincreasingwhat’savailable,andmakingitmorea_rac%veandaccessibleformoreschoolagechildren.

Proposal:WorkwiththeDistrictofSquamishRecrea%onDepartmentandSeatoSkySchoolDistrict#48tobrainstormideasforimprovingaccesstohigh-quality,affordablea[er-schoolprogramming,ideallywithtransporta%on.Exploreanyotherpossibleop%onsforunder-usedspacesthatcouldbeused.Othercommuni%eshavefoundsolu%ons–maybethere’saSquamish-specificsolu%onthatwouldprovideschoolagekidswithimprovedaccesstocare.Whatthisachieves:Exploringpossibili%esisjustastart.Ifsomethingmanageableandaffordablecanbeiden%fied,itcouldbeaneasywaytoincreasethechildcareaccessrateforschoolagechildren.WhoandWhen:Op%onsandfeasibilityfora[er-schoolprogramswillbeexploredaspartoftheSquamishChildCareAc%onPlan(completeSpring2020).ItrequiressupportfromtheDistrictofSquamish(Recrea%on),mostlikelySchoolDistrict#48,andanyotherpoten%alpartnersiden%fied.Fornow,thisproposestalkingaboutideas;implementa%oncouldbemorechallenging,dependingonthesolu%onsiden%fied.Cost:Unknown.Moreresearchisneeded.Impact:Low(fornow).Ifthere’sagreatideaoutthereandsomestrongpartnershipsarepossible,implementa%oncouldhaveaveryhighimpact.Thewaythatthechildpopula%oninSquamishisgrowingmeanstherearemoreandmoreschoolagechildreneveryyear–needsareincreasingrapidlyandnowisthe%metostartsomethingnewtoaddressthosegrowingneeds.

$

?

ExploreA[er-SchoolCarePossibili%es

Addi1onalAc1on#2isproposedasasteptowardmee%ngthefollowingac%onsfromtheSquamishChildCareNeedsAssessmentandStrategy2018-2023:

Brokerrela%onshipswithorganiza%onswithunderusedspaces.

Increasechildcarespacesacrossallagegroupsandchildcaretypes.

Consideralterna%vestofirst-comefirst-serveregistra%on.

Reducefinancialbarrierstopar%cipateincurrentsummercareop%ons.

Improveprogrammingforchildrenages7-12.

Reducetransporta%onbarriersforbefore-anda[er-schoolcare.

1.13

2.1

2.20

2.13

2.15

2.17

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EXPLORE DROP-IN CARE POSSIBILITIES

Addi%onalAc%on#3

Manylocalgovernmentsofferchild-mindingservicesforinfantsandtoddlersatreccentres.Mostrequirethataguardianispresentinthebuildingincasetheyareneeded.Thisproposesexploringop%onsfordrop-inchildcareatBrennanPark.

ExploreDrop-inChildCarePossibili%es

Proposal:Explorefeasibilityofofferingafewhoursperweekofchild-mindingatBrennanPark.Ifit’spossible,asmalltrialtodeterminehours,pricing,staffingneeds,etc.couldbeproposed.Somecommuni%esrequireregistra%onforchildmindingaheadof%me,butthenallowdrop-inifspacepermits.Whatthisachieves:Ifwecangetashort-term/drop-inprogramgoing,itwouldgiveparentssome%metofeellikethemselves–getsomeexercise,relax,makesomecallstodaycares...Itcouldprovideabitofstressrelief.WhoandWhen:AfeasibilityassessmentcouldbeproposedaspartoftheSquamishChildCareAc%onPlan(completeSpring2020).Ifit’sfeasible,apilotprojectcouldbestartedshortlya[er.Cost:Dependsonuser-fees.Itwouldbebesttoreducefinancialbarriersandmaketheofferingaccessibleforallfamilieswhoneedit.Impact:Low.It’sagesturethatacknowledgesthestrainchildcareshortageputsonSquamishfamiliesandoffersasmallwaytorelievepressure.

$

?

Addi1onalAc1on#3isproposedasamore-detailedsteptowardmee1ngthefollowingac%onfromSquamishChildCareNeedsAssessmentandStrategy2018-2023:

Researchbestprac%cesforflexible,short-term/drop-inandevening/extendedhourchildcareop%ons.

2.6

“Drop-in care would be great. Just to feel like myself for a short amount of time.”