FUTURE PROJECTIONS · 2019. 11. 16. · FUTURE PROJECTIONS Child populaon projecon Child care...
Transcript of FUTURE PROJECTIONS · 2019. 11. 16. · FUTURE PROJECTIONS Child populaon projecon Child care...
FUTUREPROJECTIONS
ChildpopulaJonprojecJon
Childcarespacesneededtomaintainthe2019accessrateinthefuture
Childcarespacesneededtoimprovetheaccessrateinthefuture
SQUAMISH’S GROWING CHILD POPULATION
ProjectedFutureNeeds
GRAPH:ProjectedChildPopula6on(Ages0-12)for2019,2021,2024,and2029.
3,894 4,1404,508
5,123
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
Year 2019 Year 2021 Year 2024 Year 2029
Proj
ecte
d N
umbe
r of C
hild
ren
(Age
0-1
2)
Between 2006 and 2016, the District of Squamish grew by an average of 2.4% per year, and was one of the fastest growing communities in Canada.
During the same time period, the growth rate for children aged 0-12 was significantly higher - an average of 3.5% annual increase.
This project assumes Squamish’s child population will continue to grow by 3.5% every year for the foreseeable future.
PROJECTEDFUTURECHILDCARESPACENEEDSTwoscenariosareimaginedbelow:(1)maintainingthecurrentchildcareaccessrateof21%and(2)increasingthechildcareaccessrateto30%,asrecommendedintheSquamishChildCareNeedsAssessment&Strategy2018-2023.SCENARIO1:MAINTAINTHECURRENTACCESSRATE(21%)MaintainingSquamish’scurrentaccessrateof21%isn’tgoodenough,butmaintainingitcouldbechallenginggiventhehighaverageannualgrowthrateforchildrenaged0-12inSquamish.AsmorefamiliesmovetoSquamish,doingnothingisn’tanopOonbecausethesituaOonwillquicklygetworsethanitalreadyis.
SCENARIO2:“REACH”TARGETACCESSRATE(30%)TheSquamishChildCareNeedsAssessmentandStrategy2018-2023idenOfieda30%accessrateasa“reach”target.30%wasselectedbecauseitalignswithandslightlyexceedstheprovincialaverageof27%in2015.Although30%issignificantlylowerthanthe55%accessrateinQuebecin2016,itisanambiOoustargetthatreflectstheextensiveneedforchildcareinourcommunity.Mee6ngthereachtargetwouldrequireincreasingthenumberofspacesby88%overthenexttenyears.
Thisrowshowshowmanynewspacesareneededbyeachselectedyear(2021,2024,2029)inordertomaintainthecurrentaccessrate.
Thisrowshowshowmanynewspacesneedtobebuilteveryyear,starOngin2019,inordertomaintainthecurrentaccessratebyeachselectedyear.
Thisrowshowshowmanynewspacesareneededbyeachselectedyear(2021,2024,2029)inordertoincreasetheaccessratetotherecommended30%.
Thisrowshowshowmanynewspacesneedtobebuilteveryyear,starOngin2019,inordertoreachthetargetaccessratebyeachselectedyear.
REALITY CHECK #2Adding36spacesforinfants/toddlersoverthenext10yearsmightnotseemlikealot,butitwouldmeanadozennewfamilyhomedaycareswith3infant/toddlerspaceseach,or3newgroupdaycareswith12infant/toddlerspaceseach.
FOCUS ON INFANTS/TODDLERS
ProjectedFutureNeeds
REALITY CHECK #1 This project assumes Squamish’s child population will continue to grow by 3.5% every year for the foreseeable future. It’s worth noting that the annual growth rate for children aged 0-5 between 2006 and 2016 fluctuated significantly, but on average was actually higher: 5.2%. If this very high growth rate for young children continues, these child care space requirements could turn out to be underestimated.
Licensedspacesforinfants/toddlers(12-30months)arethehardesttocomebyinSquamish.Therearemorethantwiceasmanyfull-dayspacesforpreschoolagechildren(30-60months)thanthereareforinfants/toddlers.Thefollowingscenariosshowthenumberofinfant/toddlerspacesthatwouldbeneededtomeetthecurrentoverallaccessrateof21%andgobeyondtoachievethereachtargetof30%.
SCENARIO1:MAINTAINCURRENTACCESSRATE(21%)
SCENARIO2:“REACH”TARGETACCESSRATE(30%)
MAINTAININGBALANCENearlyhalfoftheinfantandtoddlerspacescurrentlyinSquamishareinfamilyhomedaycares.Familychildcarelicensespermitupto7children.DependingontheagecomposiOon,provincialregulaOonsspecifythattypicallyonly4ofthe7spacescanbeusedbychildrenunder48months,andonly2ofthosespacescanbeforchildrenunder24months.Asaresult,familydaycaresneedtohavearangeofagesofchildrenintheircareinordertofilltheirspacesandmakeitaviablebusiness.Inordertosupportthesesmallbusinesses,whicharesoessenOalforinfantandtoddlercareinSquamish,thereneedstobebalanceinthewaythatnewspacesareopenedinthecommunity.Forexample,iftoomanypreschoolagespacesbecomeavailable,ithasthepotenOaltomakeitharderforfamilydaycarestofillalloftheirspaces,whichcouldmeanalossofinfantandtoddlerspacesiffamilydaycarescan’tmakeendsmeet.
Whenmakingplansfornewchildcarespaces,needsforeachagegroup/licensetypeshouldbeconsidered,sincethecurrentaccessratesvarygreatlybygroup,andupseangthebalancecoulduninten6onallymakethesitua6onworsefortheagesforwhichcareismostneeded.
REALITY CHECK #393infant/toddlerspacesoverthenext10yearswouldrequiremorethan30newfamilyhomedaycareswith3infant/toddlerspaceseach,or8newgroupdaycareswith12infant/toddlerspaceseach.
MOST WANTED!
STRATEGICACTIONS
HighestPriorityAcJonsIdenJfied
&Updated
AddiJonalAcJonsProposed
44ac%onsareproposedintheSquamishChildCareNeedsAssessmentandStrategy2018-2023.Thefollowing13HighestPriorityAc1onshavebeeniden%fiedasneedinganextranudgeoranintermediarystepinordertomoveforward.TheSquamishChildCareAc%onPlanwillfocusonthesepriorityac%ons.Onlytangible,ac%onableitemshavebeenselected.
Thefollowingtablesincludeupdatesandnextstepsforeachhighestpriorityac%on,categorizedbyac%ontype:
• Policy&Planning• Partnerships&Collabora%on• Informa%onSharing• DirectSupport
PriorityAc1onTimeframe
KeyPartners
Nov2019Update
NextSteps Impact
1.3Settargetsforchildcarespacesinneighbourhoods/nodesandworkwithdevelopersinthedesignandbuildofin-kindchildcarespaces.Developapolicyframeworkforensuringspacesarededicatedforchildcareandrentedtonot-for-profitchildcareprovidersinperpetuity,andexplorepartnershipstoopera%onalizethesepolicies.
Shortterm
DOS,developmentcommunity,SSCS,childcareproviders
• Targetsupdated.
• MapstobeprovidedbyVCH(inprepara%on).
• Developframeworkfordedica%on,rentalterms,explorepartnerships.
• Lookforfutureopportuni%es.
• SeeAddi1onalAc1onPoster#1.
High
1.4Reduceand/orremovebarrierstostar1ng/expandingachildcarefacilitythrough:• ReviewingcurrentDistrictpoliciesandzoning,
communica%ngbuildingcoderequirementsandaddressingbarrierswhereverpossible;
• Streamliningpaperworkrequirementsforchildcareproviders;and,
• Encouragingstratacouncilstopermitresiden%alchildcarefacili%esintheirbylaws.
Shortterm,on-going
DOS,VCH,childcareproviders,communityagencies
• DOSrequirementsunderreview.
• GuidetoDOSrequirementsunderprepara%on.
Reviewdra[guidewithregulators(DOSandVCH)andcommunitytofinalize.
Low
2.1Increasechildcarespacesacrossallagegroupsandchildcaretypes(i.e.,infant-toddler,childrenwithextrasupportneeds,before-anda[er-school,summerop%ons).
On-going
DOS,VCH,developercommunity,childcareproviders
Dra[projec%onsandtargetsforspecificagegroupsprepared.
• WorkwithCCRRandproviderstostrategize.
• Lookforfutureopportuni%eswithdevelopmentreview.
• SeeAddi1onalAc1onsPosters#1and#2.
High
2.2Priori1zenewchildcarefacili1esinneighbourhoodswithhighchildpopula1ons,aswellasaroundexis1ngandfutureplannedfamilyservicehubs,schools,senior’scentres,parksandBrennanParkRecrea1onCentretocreateandstrengthenchildcarehubsacrossSquamish
On-going
DOS MapstobeprovidedbyVCH(inprepara%on).
Createpoliciessuppor%ngopportuni%esforco-loca%on.
Low
2.4AdvancetheCommunityAmenityContribu1onframeworkwhereindevelopersbuildECEworkeraffordablehousingunitsheldforthepurposeinperpetuity.
On-going
DOS,developmentcommunity
DOSreviewoffeasibilityandrequirementstoadvanceworkforcehousing.
ModeratetoHigh
2.6Researchbestprac1cesforflexible,short-term/drop-inandevening/extendedhourchildcareop1ons.
Mediumterm
DOS,ChildCareStrategyimplementa%oncommi_ee
Reviewingprogramsinothercommuni%es.
• Exploreop%onsfordrop-incarewithRecrea%onServices.
• SeeAddi1onalAc1onPoster#3.
Low
Squamish Child Care Needs Assessment and Strategy
2018 to 2023 Prepared by SPARC BC
StrategicAc%ons–HighestPriorityCHILD CARE NEEDS ASSESSMENT & STRATEGY 2018-2023
PolicyandPlanning
Addi1onalAc1ons:Someofthepriorityac%onsintheSquamishChildCareNeedsAssessmentandStrategy2018-2023needmoredetailoranintermediarystep.PleaseseethededicatedexplanatorypostersforAddi%onalAc%ons1-3.
STRATEGICACTIONS–HIGHESTPRIORITY
PriorityAc1onTimeframe
KeyPartners
Nov2019Update
NextSteps Impact
1.12Ini%atediscussionstodevelopachildcarepartnershipwithSchoolDistrict48thatmayinclude:• Colloca%ngchildcarespacesat/withschools
throughcrea%veapproachesandjointmanagement;
• Developingacatchmentareasystemforchildcarethathelpseaseyoungchildren’stransi%onintokindergarten;
• StandardizingwagesacrossSchoolDistrictandECEtoreduceECEstaffloss;and,
• Designa%ngachildcarechampionateachschooltoimplementthepartnershipattheschoollevel.
Shortterm,on-going
DOS,SD48,SSCS,communityagencies,childcareproviders
DOS,SD48,SSCSpartnershipisadvancingthroughprovincialfundingprovidedforchildcarefacilityatValleycliffeElementary.
• Determinehowbesttomoveforwardforfutureopportuni%es.
• Expandconversa%ontoincludeallsuggestedtopics.
High
1.13Brokerrela1onshipsbetweenorganiza1onswithunderusedspacesandbefore-anda^er-schoolchildcareproviders(e.g.,churches,ChiefCentre,senior’scentres)
On-going
DOS,SSCS,CCRR,communityagencies,childcareproviders
SeeAddi1onalAc1onPoster#2.
High
2.20Reducetransporta1onbarriersforbefore-anda^er-schoolcarebyofferingprogramsatschoolsthroughajoint-useagreementwithSD48.
Shortterm,on-going
DOS,SD48 SeeAddi1onalAc1onPoster#2.
High
PartnershipsandCollabora%on
PriorityAc1onTimeframe
KeyPartners
Nov2019Update
NextSteps Impact
2.13Consideralterna1vestofirst-comefirst-serveregistra1on,par%cularlyforbefore-anda[er-schoolandsummerchildcareop%ons.
Shortterm
Childcareproviders,SSCS,communityagencies,Recrea%onservices
SeeAddi1onalAc1onPoster#2.
Low
2.15Reducefinancialbarrierstopar1cipateincurrentsummercareop1ons(e.g.,gearrequirements,ou%ngs).
Shortterm
Recrea%onservices
SeeAddi1onalAc1onPoster#2.
Low
2.17Improveprogrammingforchildrenages7-12years-oldandexploreopportuni%esfor“middle-years”programsandservicesaswellasayoungeryouthcentreorspaces.
Shortterm,on-going
Childcareproviders,Recrea%onservices,DOS,SD48
SeeAddi1onalAc1onPoster#2.
High
DirectSupport
PriorityAc1onTimeframe
KeyPartners
Nov2019Update
NextSteps Impact
1.16Developcentralizedresourcesforwould-beandcurrentchildcareproviderstoreducebarrierstostar%ngand/orexpandingchildcarefacili%es(e.g.,how-toguide,website,adesignatedstaffresource/processnavigator).
Shortterm,on-going
DOS,VCH,childcareproviders
• GuidetoDOSrequirementsinprepara%on.
• Newchildcareprojectpageestablishedwithresourcelinks(www.squamish.ca/childcare).
Reviewdra[guidewithregulators(DOSandVCH)andcommunitytofinalize.
Low
Informa%onSharing
IMPACT MEASUREMENT
Addi%onalAc%on#1
Inordertoproac%velyplanforchildcareandpopula%ongrowth,thisproposallinkstheimpactofnewresiden%aldevelopmentwithchildcarerequirements.
Squamishisgrowingfastandthisgrowthisverylikelytocon%nue.Whatneedstobebe_erunderstoodisthedirectimpactoflargerproposedresiden%aldevelopmentsonchildcarespaces.
Proposal:CreateaSquamish-specificformulaorcalculatortoes%matethenumberofchildrenthateachnewlargedevelopmentislikelytoaddtoourcommunity.Whatthisachieves:Thefirststeptoaddressingaproblemistomeasureit,andcloselykeeptrackofhowthingsarechangingover%me.Increasingunderstandingbymeasuringtheimpactofnewdevelopmentisrequiredtoaddressthechallenge.ThereisamechanisminBCforlocalgovernmentstoworkwithdeveloperstoaddressthenega%veimpactsofdevelopment–CommunityAmenityContribu%ons.Withmoreinforma%on,Councilwouldhavemoreflexibilitytoconsiderdetailedrequirementsforchildcarespaceprovisionaspartofamenitynego%a%onsduringlanddevelopment.WhoandWhen:ASquamish-specificformulawouldneedtobecreatedtocalculatetheimpactonchildcareofnewproposeddevelopment.Thees%matescollectedwouldneedtobeaggregatedperiodically.Cost:Li_le.Withasimpleformula,itwouldn’ttakemuchefforttouseameasurementtoolfornewlargedevelopments.Impact:Low.It’safirststepthatcouldleadtomore.
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Impactmeasurement
Addi1onalAc1on#1isproposedasanintermediarysteptohelpachievethefollowingac%onsfromSquamishChildCareNeedsAssessmentandStrategy2018-2023:
Settargetsforchildcarespacesinneighbourhoods/nodesandworkwithdevelopersinthedesignandbuildofin-kindchildcarespaces.
Increasechildcarespacesacrossallagegroupsandchildcaretypes.
1.3
2.1
EXPLORE AFTER-SCHOOL CARE POSSIBILITIES
Addi%onalAc%on#2
Schoolagekidsareagrowingpopula%onwhoneedmorea[er-schoolop%ons.Thisproposalisafirststeptowardincreasingwhat’savailable,andmakingitmorea_rac%veandaccessibleformoreschoolagechildren.
Proposal:WorkwiththeDistrictofSquamishRecrea%onDepartmentandSeatoSkySchoolDistrict#48tobrainstormideasforimprovingaccesstohigh-quality,affordablea[er-schoolprogramming,ideallywithtransporta%on.Exploreanyotherpossibleop%onsforunder-usedspacesthatcouldbeused.Othercommuni%eshavefoundsolu%ons–maybethere’saSquamish-specificsolu%onthatwouldprovideschoolagekidswithimprovedaccesstocare.Whatthisachieves:Exploringpossibili%esisjustastart.Ifsomethingmanageableandaffordablecanbeiden%fied,itcouldbeaneasywaytoincreasethechildcareaccessrateforschoolagechildren.WhoandWhen:Op%onsandfeasibilityfora[er-schoolprogramswillbeexploredaspartoftheSquamishChildCareAc%onPlan(completeSpring2020).ItrequiressupportfromtheDistrictofSquamish(Recrea%on),mostlikelySchoolDistrict#48,andanyotherpoten%alpartnersiden%fied.Fornow,thisproposestalkingaboutideas;implementa%oncouldbemorechallenging,dependingonthesolu%onsiden%fied.Cost:Unknown.Moreresearchisneeded.Impact:Low(fornow).Ifthere’sagreatideaoutthereandsomestrongpartnershipsarepossible,implementa%oncouldhaveaveryhighimpact.Thewaythatthechildpopula%oninSquamishisgrowingmeanstherearemoreandmoreschoolagechildreneveryyear–needsareincreasingrapidlyandnowisthe%metostartsomethingnewtoaddressthosegrowingneeds.
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ExploreA[er-SchoolCarePossibili%es
Addi1onalAc1on#2isproposedasasteptowardmee%ngthefollowingac%onsfromtheSquamishChildCareNeedsAssessmentandStrategy2018-2023:
Brokerrela%onshipswithorganiza%onswithunderusedspaces.
Increasechildcarespacesacrossallagegroupsandchildcaretypes.
Consideralterna%vestofirst-comefirst-serveregistra%on.
Reducefinancialbarrierstopar%cipateincurrentsummercareop%ons.
Improveprogrammingforchildrenages7-12.
Reducetransporta%onbarriersforbefore-anda[er-schoolcare.
1.13
2.1
2.20
2.13
2.15
2.17
EXPLORE DROP-IN CARE POSSIBILITIES
Addi%onalAc%on#3
Manylocalgovernmentsofferchild-mindingservicesforinfantsandtoddlersatreccentres.Mostrequirethataguardianispresentinthebuildingincasetheyareneeded.Thisproposesexploringop%onsfordrop-inchildcareatBrennanPark.
ExploreDrop-inChildCarePossibili%es
Proposal:Explorefeasibilityofofferingafewhoursperweekofchild-mindingatBrennanPark.Ifit’spossible,asmalltrialtodeterminehours,pricing,staffingneeds,etc.couldbeproposed.Somecommuni%esrequireregistra%onforchildmindingaheadof%me,butthenallowdrop-inifspacepermits.Whatthisachieves:Ifwecangetashort-term/drop-inprogramgoing,itwouldgiveparentssome%metofeellikethemselves–getsomeexercise,relax,makesomecallstodaycares...Itcouldprovideabitofstressrelief.WhoandWhen:AfeasibilityassessmentcouldbeproposedaspartoftheSquamishChildCareAc%onPlan(completeSpring2020).Ifit’sfeasible,apilotprojectcouldbestartedshortlya[er.Cost:Dependsonuser-fees.Itwouldbebesttoreducefinancialbarriersandmaketheofferingaccessibleforallfamilieswhoneedit.Impact:Low.It’sagesturethatacknowledgesthestrainchildcareshortageputsonSquamishfamiliesandoffersasmallwaytorelievepressure.
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Addi1onalAc1on#3isproposedasamore-detailedsteptowardmee1ngthefollowingac%onfromSquamishChildCareNeedsAssessmentandStrategy2018-2023:
Researchbestprac%cesforflexible,short-term/drop-inandevening/extendedhourchildcareop%ons.
2.6
“Drop-in care would be great. Just to feel like myself for a short amount of time.”