The Future of Work I n a Te c h n o l o g y D r i v e n A g e

Peter Cochrane

cochrane.org.uk

Fundamentals Why and how we work !

1) To satisfy fast evolving needs and aspirations

2) We continually polish and advance our tools and methods to achieve (1)

3) Our ability to advance (2) is now exceeding our ability to change

Maslow’s notions remain more or less true with a degree of modification/upgrade

A x i o m a t i c Technology progress - Empowers people to be far more productive

- Always creates more jobs than it destroys

- Introduces more innovation & creativity

- Invokes far more +ve change than -ve

- Creates entirely new sectors & jobs

- Is the only route to sustainability

- Affords people more freedom

- Enables equitable societies

- Begets more technology

A x i o m a t i c R o b o t s a n d A I

A h u g e o p p o r t u n i t y

n o t a t h r e a t !

• Government

• Education

• Banking

• Legal

A x i o m a t i c Our institutions are always on the back foot

O t h e r B o d i e s Also fa l l fur ther beh ind

• Some companies

• Political parties

• Some sectors

• Think tanks

• All unions

• +++++

Evolution The workplace

T H E S U R V I V A L O F

T H E M O S T A D A P T A B L E

C h a n g e The New Stable

•Fundamentally driven by technology •Demands more & more resources •Increases population density •Drives up living standards •Creates ever more jobs •Targets sustainability •No sector is immune •Creates new sectors •Always accelerating

Mainstream Internet D i d n o t e x i s t 3 5 y e a r s a g o

Mobile Networks Did no t ex i s t 30 yea r s ago

O n - L i n e Re t a i l Did not exist 20 years ago

Social Networks Did not exist 10 years ago

Music Streaming Did not exist 5 years ago

Automation A d v a n c i n g a p a c e We o n l y e m p l o y p e o p l e w h e n

t h e y a r e c h e a p e r t h a n r o b o t s

M i l l i o n s o f j o b s m a d e o b s o l e t e a n d p e o p l e d i s p l a c e d , b u t e v e n m o re n e w j o b s a re c re a t e d

M y o p i a S p e c i a l i s m s

“The drive towards increasing specialisation has returned spectacular benefits in education, R&D, knowledge creation, industry, farming and resources whilst clouding the bigger picture and the really important goals”

G e n e r a l i s t s M u l t i - d i s c i p l i n a r y

“In a connected and fast moving world we now need people capable of spanning many different disciplines to ‘join the dots’ and create solutions that are immediately effective and have a reasonable longevity”

M y o p i c E d u c a t i o n

A continuous stream of students with honed skills and remembered facts for a world that has already died or is on the way out !

“Creativity, innovation and problem solving….

…now trump pure academic attainment”

R e a l i s a t i o n B y o n l y a v e r y f e w

“I never let my education interfere with my learning”

M a r k Tw a i n

S k i l l s S p r e a d

The gap between academic and artisan is closing fast!

“Every sector and every job is embracing ever more technology and ever more change”

Source: David Deming Harvard

J o b S h a r e % USA 1980 - 2012

No change

Fel l

Grew

Key Rea l i s a t ion Fundamental to our situation

“Everything - our universe, lives and work is non-linear at a fundamental level…

….simple thinking and solutions are generally insufficient and can be dangerous …..

…we are living at a time of surprises and unintended consequences”

C o m p l e x i t y Beyond human ability

•Everything is now connected and dynamically changing

•The universe is fundamentally chaotic and non-linear

•Networked interdependence is expanding globally

•The law of unintended consequences is dominant

•Past experiences and instinct are unreliable

•Simple thinking is increasingly dangerous

•Machine augmentation is a future must

“Spanning many disciplines and scenarios to ‘join the dots’ will most likely be best satisfied by a blend of human and machine resources”

T h e N e w Po l y m a t h s Complexity exceeding human abi l i ty

We need a greater diversity of skills, exposures and experiences on a massive scale…the world of the ‘simple’ is long gone!

Frequent high volume tasks Combinatorially complex Logical deductions Vast networking High precision

T h e C h a n g i n g B a l a n c e Between human and machine employment

Novel problems and solution Constrained networking

Adaptable dexterity Abstract thought

Beyond logic

New Tech Destroys Jobs Changing the nature of work & employment

Lost in my l i fet ime:Typists

DockersMilkman

BlacksmithSecretaries

Drawing officeXerox operator

Elevator operatorComputer operator

Telephone operatorComptometer operator

Financial report writers++++

TestersTastersAnalystsAdvisorsEducatorsReportersStrategistsCall centresReport writersPersonal bankersPersonal assistantsAnswering services

Investment bankersWarehouse PeoplePersonal AssistantTech suppor t

Stock TraderReceptionistForecastersTrain driverResearcher

JournalistDrivers

Pilots++++

Losses yet to come:

Jobs to come:

3/4D DesignerRisk Profilers

Cyborg EngineerProtein DesignerCrime Predictor

Digital HistorianInformation CaretakerTruth Engine Mediator

N-D Geometry AnalystComponent Repurposer

Genome-Protein Activators++++

Material ProgrammerRecycling DesignersInterface DesignersMachine MediatorsWisdom ArchivistsGenome DesignerMaterial DesignerWisdom MonitorsTrouble ShootersNano-EngineersBio-Engineers++++

Jobs to Be enhanced:

LeaderMentorFabricatorGeneticistGeneralistProteomistMulti-designerProblem solverLongevity advisorBig Data AnalystCellular programmerMaterial programmer++++

Complexity analystsSecurity ExpertsEntrepreneurs

TechnologistsConsultantsArch i t e c t sDetectivesDesignersEngineersModellersScientists

Medics++++

Jobs Created/Enhanced Changing the nature of work & employment

Radical Disruption Already with us and more to come

World’s largest telephone company has no network

World’s largest retailer has no inventory

World’s largest taxi company has no cars

World’s movie house has no cinemas

World’s largest hotel has no buildings

World’s largest software vendor writes no code

N o G o i n g B a c k O u r d e p e n d e n c e i s t o t a l

•The technologies of the past cannot sustain ~7Bn people

•Industries of the past cannot achieve sustainability

•Economic and societal models have to change

•Management thinking/practice has to change

•The politics of the past will not work

Making what we have more efficient

only puts off the day of collapse!

Tools Amplify Our Abil it ies From the hammer and axe to the computer and AI

Muscle Mind

Make Modify Mend Think Invent Innovate

Tools Technology Science Understanding Knowledge

W A R

G A M I N G

A r t i f i c i a l

I n

t e l l i g e n c e Modellin

gCo

m

puter

M at e r i al

S c i en c e

Clouds

B I G

D A T A

BYOD

BMOB

DIY IT

Sensors

Robots

C y b e r

Security

Nano

Bio

Some Big Game Changers We have t o adap t and adop t f a s t e r

Future Work Expansive & amplified

Open

Inclusive

Transparent

Merit Based

NetworkedDynamic

Adaptive

Customised

Short Term

AssignmentBased

Team Specific

Sporadic

Call Off

Solution Focussed

Multi-Discipline

Global

Fast

Borderless

Cross Company

Adaptive

RightFirst Time

P e r s p e c t i v e D y n a m i c c h a n g e n o w

SilosDrones

OrderedManagers

EmployeesTop DownControlled

InsourcingFunctionariesPresentations

Money Driven

TeamsIndividualsC h a o t i cL e a d e r sAdvocatesBottom UpUncontrolledOutsourcingProblem SolversP r o t o t y p e sInnovation Led

Slow Changing: mass production, assembly line, mining, farming, fishing, food production…

Fast Changing: high tech, media, R&D, design, evolving line

Customers moving up the design chain

P e r s p e c t i v e C o p i n g w i t h c h a n g e

Do what you do best… …and link to the rest

Tech yourself complex skills… …and subsume the big ideas

W e k n o w w h a t w e d o n ’ t u n d e r s t a n d

W e d o n ’ t k n o w w h a t w e d o n ’ t k n o w !

Our Biggest Challenges O u r g r o w i n g c o l l e c t i v e i g n o r a n c e

We c a n n o t p re d i c t w i t h a n y a c c u r a c y : - w h a t p e o p l e w i l l d o w i t h n e w t e c h - w h a t c o m p a n i e s w i l l d o w i t h n e w t e c h - t h e c re a t i o n o f n e w b u s i n e s s m o d e l s / m a r ke t s

Our Biggest Challenges M a n a g i n g t h e p r o c e s s o f c h a n g e

We h a v e a d i s m a l re c o rd o f : - r e a l i s i n g s m o o t h s o c i e t a l a d a p t a t i o n - i n t ro d u c i n g c h a n g e w i t h o u t m a s s i ve d i s r u p t i o n

“ We f a c e a f u t u re o f c o n t i n u a l a n d a c c e l e ra t i n g c h a n g e”

resist or Adapt ?

The Survival of the fast

I n n o v a t o r s

I n r e a l i t y w e h a v e n o c h o i c e

Thank Youca-global.org

cochrane.org.uk