University Alliance Summit, 4th June 2015

Dr Martin Rhisiart, Centre for Research in Futures and Innovation, University of South Wales

The Future of Work: trends, disruptions and implications for HE

The Future of Work: Jobs and Skills in 2030. Context and BriefThe UK Commission for Employment and Skills is a publicly funded, industry led organisation providing strategic leadership on skills and employment issues in the four home nations of the UK.

Overall aim of the study to “enable key groups in the UK labour market to position themselves effectively by building their understanding of key emerging trends and the implications for the future of jobs and skills for the medium to the long term (up to 2030).”

Strategic foresight/futures project – to complement quantitative research (Working Futures labour market projections)

Not prediction but structured anticipation

2

Guiding questions for the project

What are the main assumptions regarding the future global economic development and performance of UK jobs and skills?

 

What are the potential future disruptions?

 

Which key factors are driving the development of jobs and skills in the UK? Which uncertainties do they feature?

 

What are possible and plausible pictures of the future of UK jobs and skills, and how might they develop?

 

What are the scenarios’ implications for the key actors in the field of UK jobs and skills?

  3

Study Methodology

4

• Evidence-based approach

• 13 trends and 10 disruptions

• 23 interviews

• 12 key factors

• 3-4 projections of alternative future developments for each key factor

• Consistency analysis

• 4 scenarios

• 7 economic sectors

• 4 stakeholder groups

• Derivation of strategic implications and action needs

Trends Shaping UK Jobs & Skills to 2030

5

The UKCES trend radar

• Demographic change, especially an ageing population

• Growing diversity, representation of gender and ethnic groups

• Rising insecurities in long-term household income perspectives, including income and regional inequalities

• Growing desire for better work-life balance

• Changing work environment, shaped by ICT, outsourcing, internationalisation and the need for greater flexibility

• Converging cross-discipline technologies, particularly the combination of biotechnology, information and communications technology, nanotechnology and cognitive science

• Digitalisation of production: automated and additive manufacturing processes, involving 3D printing

• ICT development and the Age of Big Data, the power of digital devices and the potential to capture and use vast amounts of data

• Changed economic perspectives, particularly the volatility and uncertainties in the period post the 2008 crash

• Shift to Asia, growing economic power and influence of countries in the East

• New business ecosystems: generating value by creating new business relationships and cooperating in networks

• Growing scarcity of resources and ecosystem services: finite environmental resourced pressurised by current models of development

• Decreasing fiscal scope for political action: the focus on austerity and debt reduction limits resources for education and skills initiatives.

Trends shaping jobs and skills - examples

6

Four Scenarios for Work 2030

7

Scenario 1: Forced Flexibility

8

Greater business flexibility and incremental innovation bring the UK economy back on the growth path - but flexibility is often gained at the expense of the low skilled.

Key Elements

• Volatile world economy

• Business flexibility and innovation bring growth back to the UK economy

• Hourglass shaped labour market

• Security of employment is important – but also work life balance

• Wide variety of education and training channels

Implications for Skills

• Demand for medium to high technology literacy

• Combine technical or e-skills with business skills

• Analyse and use vast amounts of data

• Entrepreneurial and self-organisation skills

• Decreasing demand for many rote skills

Scenario 1: Forced Flexibility

9

Short Vignette: Fashination – The Future of Showrooming

Key implicationsEntrepreneurism as a lifestyle: demographics; micro-preneurism

Collaborative business models and project-based employment: project management; risk management; marketing; negotiation

Disruptions challenging Jobs & Skills 2030

10

The UKCES disruption* radar

• Reverse migration

• Changing values of employees, where workers select employers on the basis of alignment with own values

• Fragmented zero-hour contracts

• Anytime, anywhere skills delivery, enabled by virtual and peer-to-peer learning

• Artificial intelligence and robots, penetration of AI and automation into highly skilled occupations

• De-globalisation

• Geographically alternative centres of excellence, the UK’s leading position in key economic sectors lost to high growth economies

• Disrupted Internet developments

• Resource conflicts/climate disasters threaten supply

• Partial fragmentation of the EU

* Disruptions represent a significant divergence from or a marked acceleration of current trends or expected developments

Examples of disruptions

11

UK: 35 per cent of jobs are at high risk of automation (Osborne, Frey, Deloitte, 2014)

Resilience against computerisation:• Creativity• Social intelligence• Perception and manipulation

Scenario 3: Skills Activism

12

Innovation in technology drives automation of professional work, leading to large-scale job losses and prompting an extensive government-led skills programme

Key Elements

• Steady incremental economic growth after a slow recovery process from 2008/9 crisis.

• Tech innovation hollows out professional work

• Government proactively provides skills support

• A project-based economy develops

• Health and social sector and micropreneurism offer job opportunities

Implications for Skills

• Learn new skills quickly

• Creativity and problem solving skills

• Cross-discipline skill-sets

• Data management, analysis and visualisation skills

• Decreased demand for some professional skills

Scenario 3: Skills Activism

Short Vignette: Meta-Accountability Quality Assurance by MGPC

Key implicationsRecombination with technical validation skills demographics; micropreneurism

Rise of the cyber doc

Smart factories

Key messages

14

Key messages

15

Some implications for Universities

16

• Four generational workplaces – significant opportunities

• Automation/computerisation: threats and opportunities

• Core skills + interdisciplinary

• Project and networking skills

• Business model innovation? Delivery, MOOCs and beyond

• Specialisation vs. diversification: the importance of related variety

17

Reports

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/jobs-and-skills-in-2030