Future of Work

latrobe.edu.au/students/careers CRICOS Provider 00115M

Title of presentationName of presenterTitle of presenter School / Faculty / Divisionxx Month 201x

The Future of WorkJason BrownManager, Career Development CentreLa Trobe Learning and Teaching2 May 2014

2CAREER DEVELOPMENT CENTRE | La Trobe University

2066


2066 - the year your Year 12 students will start retiring from the workforce


How will work be different in 2066?


The forces of change

Gratton (2011) has proposed five forces of change that will, or are, shaping the future of work

1.Technology

2.Globalisation

3.Demography and longevity

4.Society

5.Energy resources


5 (updated) trends

1. The shade of your future depends on where you are

2. Online education

3. Quotas for women?

4. The business side of social media

5. Reconsidering trust

Gratton (2014)


What are the jobs of the future?


Structural changes

“It’s my belief that the youth unemployment we see affecting many countries is structural not cyclical. The past few years have been marked by the hollowing out of work, by which I mean that the middle-skilled jobs traditionally taken on by graduates have been outsourced or being replaced by technology, leaving only low-skilled jobs or high-skilled jobs which require more experience and education than the average twentysomething has to offer. This can leave young people adrift, without that very first job role from which to move upwards.”

(Gratton, 2014)


Which jobs are MOST at risk of computerisation?

• Frey & Osborne (2013) examined occupations listed in O*net. Found 47% of US jobs could be replaced by technology in 10 -20 years

• Aspects of jobs which are susceptible: Routine cognitive tasks & Non-routine manual tasks

• Occupational areas most at risk:• Transportation and logistics occupations

• Office and administrative support workers

• Labour in production occupations

• Service occupations (low-mid skill and wage jobs)


Which jobs are LEAST at risk of computerisation?

• Generalist occupations requiring knowledge of human heuristics

• Specialist occupations involving the development of novel ideas and artefacts

• Management, business, and finance occupations, requiring social intelligence

• Most occupations in education, healthcare, arts and media.


Probability that your job will be done by a computer

• Telemarketers, Mathematical technicians, tax preparers, new accounts clerksProbability: 0.99

• Landscaping and grounds keeping workers, Manicurists and Pedicurists, Library Assistants, Paralegals and Legal AssistantsProbability 0.95

• Court Reporters, Teaching Assistants, Camera Operators - Television, Video and Motion PictureProbability 0.5 – 0.7

• Educational, Guidance, School, and Vocational Counselors Probability: 0.0085 (44/702 least likely to be computerised)


Breaking free from the office

13CAREER DEVELOPMENT CENTRE | La Trobe UniversityPhoto by Wm. Li. www.flickr.com/photos/williamli1983

Office as meeting place (Maitland & Thomson 2011)

SUSTAINABILITYTRANSPARENCY

INTERCONNECTEDNESSCOLLABORATION

PERSONAL RESPONSIBILITY


All you need is a computer device and internet connection

• Working from home

• “Third spaces”, coworking communities

• Work wherever you need to be; “check in” at the HQ as needed

• Global teams; virtual organisations

• Non-traditional work days and hours

• Online collaboration

15CAREER DEVELOPMENT CENTRE | La Trobe UniversityPhoto by La Trobe University

The Future of Education


The Future of Education

What will the school or university of the future look like?

• Blended and online education

• Centralised Specialist or Master Teacher & distributed tutors?

• Will students need to be at school every day?

What will your job as a careers practitioner look like in 10 – 20 years?


Last thoughts

If your students are going to be working beyond 2066 (i.e., 50+ year career):

• How important is it to choose the “right” course at university?

• What job are they training for?

• What skills do they need to have to manage a career over 50+ years?

• How do they get started if the jobs traditionally performed by graduates are no longer available?


References

Frey, C.B., & Osborne, M.A. (2013). The Future Of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs To Computerisation? Accessed 28/4/14 http://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf

Gratton, L. (2011). The Shift: The future of work is already here. London: HarperCollins

Gratton, L. (2014). 5 Trends to Watch in 2014. Accessed 28/4/14 http://lyndagrattonfutureofwork.typepad.com/lynda-gratton-future-of-work/2014/01/5-trends-to-watch-in-2014.html

Maitland, A. & Thomson, P. (2011). Future Work: How business can adapt and thrive in the new world of work. London: Palgrave MacMillan

Thank you

latrobe.edu.au/students/careers CRICOS Provider 00115M

Jason Brown

Twitter: @onejasonbrown

LinkedIn: au.linkedin.com/in/brownjasonl

Future of Work

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