1. Patrick Dixon Chairman Global Change Ltd http://www.globalchange.com 5 million video views Future of Auto Industry and energy use in cars !

2. 2 3. Morethanonestrategyforautomanufacturers ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! 4. ! One word will dominate ALL FUTURE ! 5. ClicktoeditMastertextstyles 12 6. The future is about EMOTION 7. 15 8. Top Global Auto Brands - Interbrand 9. Numberofvehiclesper100people 10. 4:mesasmanycarsonearthifwhole worldhassameownershipasAmerica 11. Scrap Old Vehicles! ! In France, 80% of diesel pollution from 20% of vehicles -! mainly more than 14 years old! ! 12. >40%WDPinAsiaby2015 IMF-adjustedforPurchasingPowerParity 50%popula:oninIndiaunder25yearsold 13. 300 million move to cities in China 475 million to cities in Africa by 2030 ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! 14. Global car sales 107m by 2020! ! up from 80m in 2013! ! Europe / Japan - at! America - recovered! ! China - 19m to 31m in 7 years ! - mainly foreign brands 15. Limitstocarownership? 16. CityTracandParking 17. Global Manufacturing! ! Tata Group owns Jaguar in UK! Russia will be largest car maker in Europe! New factories in Turkey, Indonesia, Africa, Brazil 18. Nanotech Coa:ngs 19. VW mega platform VWMegaPlaPorm-basisfor1mcars 20. Lighter vehicles ! ! New Range Rovers are 40% lighter ! Plastics! Carbon bre! Less steel 21. >30%energysavingswithgreentech 22. 35 External Air Bags ! ! Volvo in V40 hatchback , Mercedes Benz, TRW 23. Laser Headlights! 500 metres distance - Audi, BMW 24. Body Level One Body Level Two Body Level Three Body Level Four Body Level Five Longer and shorter global supply chains 25. NearshoringBoom 26. ManufacturinginMexicowill growforUSmarket 27. Body Level One Body Level Two Body Level Three Body Level Four Body Level Five Expect huge growth in component trade 28. Body Level One Body Level Two Body Level Three Body Level Four Body Level Five World exports of parts and components 29. $226bn on Mexico rail, road, ports since 2006 SUPER HUBS 30. 30% EU trucks run empty Wewaste 25million milesayear drivingempty trucks ! USmajorretailer 31. Shale gas 33% ! US supplies! 3.3m US jobs! $468bn pa + more oil ! produced than Saudi by 2020! ! 200 years global supply!Up from 60 years in 5 years 32. LPG-hugegrowthinIndia 33. ! Hydrogen GimmickorReality 34. Hydrogen Cars Arriving ! ! Toyota, Hyundai, Honda (60% denser energy pack with 33% size reduction in 7 years) 35. Problemswithsupply, storage,milesperkgofgas 36. 30 million acres lost ! EU 5% gasoline and diesel from food 25% of 2010 US grain fuel 30% US grain burnt in cars 37. Whye-carshaveagreatfuture 38. EUforcingglobalchangesincaremissions 39. NOX emissions 40. VW latest hybrid emits only 21g per km - XLJ (check) 41. Whypayfortwoengines? 42. GMVolt-Ba?eryLife Averagedriverusesba?ery82%ofFme evenwithrangeofonly38miles 43. UStotalsalese-vehicles HybridsandAll-ElectricDec2010-June2014 44. Electric car sales off-target ! ! Germany: 1 million by 2020! Nissan Leaf: selling 20,000 a year, but factory capacity for 150,000 a year! ! 45. >20,000 a year - out of $42m factory! 46. e-carFormulaRacing 47. Be?erBa?eries 48. How green are electric cars ?! ! France: 8g CO2 / km (mainly nuclear) ! ! India: >120g C02 / km (mainly coal)! ! Future: 0g CO2 / km (focussed light) 49. Solar Power Park under light focussed - Ford 50. BodyDesignOpFonsVeryLimitedinFuture 51. Everywindtunneldoesthesame 52. Cardesignlimited byhumananatomy 53. LimitstoCockpitDesign 54. Driver Assist ! ! Auto parking! Safe distance on highways! Autobraking! Read speed signs! Detect sleepy driver 55. Auto Parking! Ford, Audi, Volvo, Honda 56. Predict Driver Mood ! ! Car learns about the daily schools run - route, usual radio station, cabin temperature - and so checks the route, trafc each day Mercedes! ! Switch hybrid to battery only when usual journey close to home Ford 57. Drowsy, Drunk, Distracted! ! Alcohol in sweat on gear leaver / erratic driving Nissan ! LED detection of closed eyes University of Leicester! Head not facing road Audi! Detection heart problem (ECG from steering wheel) Nippon Medical School 58. Boominconnected carsales 59. GM 4G AllnewGMcarsinUS/Candawith4G 60. Auto Infotainment! ! Chevrolet MyLink: Apps such as Glimpse, i! Heart RadioHyundai! Volvo SensoConnected: history etc on what you are driving past, WiFi hotspot! Google and Apple plug in compatibility! Car to i-watch data eg parking location 61. Lower Insurance Costs ! ! Insurer learns about how brake and accelerator are used, cornering speeds etc, time of day - linked to premiums for younger drivers 62. Vehicletrainssave30%offuel 63. Networked-Joinedtogether 64. Vehicle to Vehicle Data ! ! National Highway Trafc Safety Administration requirement for vehicle to vehicle communication by ? 2017 to prevent accidents - warnings, automatic braking etc 65. FutureofHousehold Appliancesand RoboFcs? 66. Carswithnodrivers 67. legalliabilityinaccidents? 68. Over700,000kmsdriven 69. Digital Control 70. Who owns the driver ? ! Manufacturers - telcos - breakdown companies - dealer network - independent garages - leasing company - software provider - insurer! 71. FutureofAutoDealers Manufacturerswillghtforcontrol 72. DoesTeslaneeddealers?? 73. Click to edit Master text styles Click to edit Master text styles 105 74. Click to edit Master text styles Click to edit Master text styles 106 75. 107 HighSpeedRail-compeFngwithAir 76. Title Text !Body Level One !Body Level Two !Body Level Three !Body Level Four o Body Level Five $40 Trillion Green Tech Boom driven by oil price, cost cuts, green activism 77. Boom Bust 78. 5coalplantsreplacewithgas=9000megawa>swind ! 57closedinUSin2012-14 CheapercoalmeansmorecoalwillbeburntinAsia 79. 120,000 terawatts of sunlight /day 7,000 times total power use 80. solarcellsreaching priceparity 81. 120,000 terawatts of sunlight /day 7,000 times total global power use Power Moscow from Libyan Desert ! 40% EU power = wind by 2050 Surplus wind to hydrogen - to methane ? 82. ManagingPeakPower! 10% capacity used 4 days a year in Australia Average $50 peak $10,000 per MWhr 83. GermanyPowerSurplus! InJune2013electricityprices becamenegaFve-EU150/MWhr 84. Next-generation Smart Grids / Super-Grids 85. Nuclearenergy-expectglobalgrowth ChallengetoachievecarbonreducHonANDcutnuclear Wildcard=dirtyterrorbomboranothermeltdown Mininguraniuminfuturefromseawaterusingtodaystechnology 86. Enough salt caverns planned to power Germany for a week PowerStorage 87. Morethanonestrategyforautomanufacturers ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! 88. 121 89. Patrick Dixon Chairman Global Change Ltd Future of Vehicles and Energy !