Future of Retail Property - Derek Haldendhc1.co.uk/content/BCSC_print.pdf · 2018. 12. 17. ·...

Future of Retail PropertyFuture of Retail Transport:Access, Information and Flexibility

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Future of Retail Property

Future of Retail Transport:Access, Inform

ation and Flexibility

BCSC

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Westminster, London SW1H 9BT

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Price: £75 (BCSC members £25)


Future of Retail Transport:A

ccess, Information and Flexibility

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Efficient and flexible transport optionswill be fundamental to retail growthfor both suppliers and customers overthe next decade. Transport pricingand policy, evolving modes of transportand increasingly accessible technologywill all work to broaden choices forconsumers, influencing not just howthey get to a shopping place but alsohow and when they shop and whatthey choose to buy.

The retail property industry willneed to understand the challengesnow in order to meet them headon over the next ten years.

BCSC is pleased to present thiskey research.

John Strachan, President, BCSC Global Head of Retail, Cushman & Wakefield

Front cover image reproduced through kind permission of Franco Vairani/MIT Smart Cities


Researched and written by Derek Halden Consultancy Ltd inassociation with the Institute for Retail Studies, University of Stirling

Managed and edited by:Dr Richard Barkham, GrosvenorDr Yvonne Court, Cushman & WakefieldMarcus Kilby, Lunson MitchenallKate Logan, BCSCDr Hayley Myers, University of Surrey

Financial support from BCSC Educational Trust with special thanks to:Jim Murphy, Simons DevelopmentsRoger Groom, London & Continental Stations & Properties Ltd

ISBN 1 897958 34 X© BCSC (British Council of Shopping Centres) 2006

The text of this publication may not be reproduced nor may talks or lectures based onmaterial contained within the document be given without the written consent of BCSC.

No responsibility for any loss occasioned to any person acting or refraining from action as aresult of any material included in this publication can be accepted by the authors or publishers.

Introduction 04

Section 1

Executive Summary 05

– Summary overview 06

Section 2

Context 09

– Summary 10

– Trip making 11

– Transport markets and investment 12

Section 3

Transport Infrastructure

and Transport Cost 13

– Summary 14

– Infrastructure and public investment 15

– Road pricing 16

– Fuel costs and energy markets 18

– Paying for transport 22

– Freight costs 23

– Other cost impacts 24

Section 4

Managing Passenger

and Freight Transport 25

– Summary 26

– Regulation and legislation 27

– Public awareness 28

– Business travel plans 29

– Freight and logistics 30

Section 5

Future Modes 31

– Summary 32

– New modes 33

– Dominant and expanding modes 35

Section 6

The Informed Traveller 37

– Summary 38

– Information and marketing 39

Section 7

People, Lifestyles and Retail Markets 41

– Summary 42

– Transport needs in changing

retail markets 43

– Retail markets and transport change 44

– People, places and lifestyles 45

– Technological change 47

– Planning and regulation 48

Section 8

How Much Change and How Fast? 49

– Summary 50

– Impact of change 51

Section 9

Overview of Impacts on Retail Property 53

– Summary 54

– Overall impacts on retail locations 55

– Accessibility, flexibility

and information 57

Section 10

Appendices and Additional Resources 59

– Appendix A: Transport trends 60

– Appendix B: Transport policy impacts 64

– Appendix C: Forecasts 71

– Appendix D: Actors in

delivering change 73

– Appendix E: Acknowledgements 77

– Appendix F: References and notes 78

Contents

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BCSC:Future of Retail Property

Future of Retail Transport: Access, Information and Flexibility

Introduction

The development of transport, the economy and society are interdependent.In the 19th century, the developing rail network helped cities to strengthentheir position as major retail centres. The 20th century was the age of themotor car widening the range and choice of viable retail locations to suburbsand out of town locations. At the start of the 21st century, fast-developingelectronic information, communication and transport networks are set tomake equally profound impacts on both the retail and transport industries.

This review identifies the changes taking place in transport and the factors thatare influencing its evolution in relation to retail travel. The elements most likelyto lead to change within the next ten years are reviewed under five headings:

• Transport Infrastructure and Transport Cost (Section 3)• Managing Passenger and Freight Transport (Section 4)• Future Modes (Section 5)• The Informed Traveller (Section 6)• People, Lifestyles and Retail Markets (Section 7)

Section 2 is a factual summary of retail travel trends. Sections 3 to 7 set out onepossible view of the future to show the range of impacts and relevance to retailing;other views may be equally valid. The main points are summarised at the start ofeach section, and are explained in more detail in the text. Examples are providedto illustrate more complex issues.

In presenting this view of future transport, there has been a significant emphasison the very important role that needs to be played by retailers and retail propertydevelopers in future. Transport and retail markets are interdependent. Successfultransport solutions are a pre-requisite for competitive retail property. Retailersthemselves can make a significant contribution to delivering the changes thatmeet transport needs as described in Section 8.

Other relevant factors are described in the Tables and Appendices, and a briefdiscussion of the evidence and sources is included in end notes. Section 9summarises the overall conclusions.

All footnotes are in Appendix F and separated into the different sections.

Scope of the reviewThis review of transport is set within the Future of Retail Property researchprogramme – mapping out the forces for change in the retail industry to 2015.The aim is to provide developers, planners, retailers and advisors with informationon forecasting social, political, technological and economic changes in order tohelp develop better shopping places.

The work:• involved a detailed scoping of the agents impacting on future transport and

their relationship with retail travel. This was based on a review of publishedevidence and expert consultation.

• developed scenarios for discussion at a workshop with leading researchers,reviewing each factor and the scale of impact over the next ten years.

• projected the most likely scenarios as the basis for a main prediction backedup through consultation with leading experts in each field.

Section 1

Executive Summary

Transport is becoming more importantfor retail competitiveness. It affectsboth the supply and demand sides ofretailing, and has significant potentialfor improvement.

Increasingly, accessibility, efficiency,flexibility and information will definegood retail transport. At the sametime, current management by mode,infrastructure and ownership will remainimportant for the foreseeable future.

Travel associated with retail is growingfaster than for any other trip purpose.Car travel is also growing, and accountsfor over 60% of shopping trips. Thereis a decline in walking to the shopsbut pedestrians still account for morethan a quarter of shopping trips.

The gap between public understandingand transport policy aims has stalledchange, making future transportunpredictable. This gap in understandingis closing, and the rate of transportchange will accelerate.

Overall, retail travel in 2015 will lookquite like it looks today, but new pricingmechanisms, technologies and lifestylechanges will be gaining momentum.

The transport economy is large andgrowing. It currently accounts for over15% of household spending. Althoughlarge transport markets evolve slowly,the sector is set for major change.

The patterns set in the next ten yearswill define the future of retail transportfor many decades.

In the new information age, betterinformed travellers will be moresophisticated consumers• The developing integration between

transport and electronic communicationnetworks will be major drivers ofretail transport change.

• Technology will help people tomanage the increasingly complexchoices available.

• Some travellers will start to relyon mobile communications withsatellite navigation to help chooseshopping locations.

• The 24-hour connected societywill require more flexible transport,providing trips at more times of dayto more places.

Transport modes are evolving withsuccessful options being faster,more flexible, cleaner, and safer• As part of the preparation for a transport

future less dependent on oil, new andmore expensive energy sources fortransport will increase their marketshare. Mass markets will emerge forthese new energy technologies andthe rate of change will depend onthe incentives offered by Government.Replacing vehicle fleets with new

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Section 1 Executive Summary

Summary overview

vehicles and infrastructure with newfacilities will take many decades.

• Car travel will continue to be thedominant mode, but will be replacedprogressively by even more flexible,automated and efficient modes.

• The costs of travel will rise throughfuel costs and fares, and indirectlythrough growing congestion. Risinglabour costs will be an equallyimportant factor influencing publictransport and freight costs.

• Growth in public transport marketswill be greatest for high frequencyand high speed modes, with majortransport hubs being even moreattractive retail locations.

• In advance of widespread emissionstrading in transport, carbon offsettingwill be adopted on a voluntary basisas part of corporate responsibilitypolicies in more companies.

• Overall, it will become slightly moreexpensive to travel to the shops.

More customer-responsive passengerand freight transport will adapt tofast changing needs• Retail marketing will progressively

provide more transport information,discounts and benefits for customers,particularly for those affected by highertravel costs and transport difficulties.

• The majority of the British populationwill carry and use smartcards andother smart media. The companiesadministering these media will gainmarket share for small retail purchases,public transport and, in the longerterm, road pricing.

• There will be increased resilience insupply chains through improved technologyand real-time tracking of goods.

There is a shift towards an ‘access’economy where lifestyles andexperiences are more importantinfluences on behaviour• Growing participation in national

voluntary road pricing will reflect anincreasingly ‘pay as you go’ society.

• Public funding for transport willbe more clearly linked to benefitsresulting from improved accessibility.

• Retailers will become more involvedin selling and managing access totransport services. Parking will costmore, but increasingly retailers willpay for customer parking. Largeretailers will become big purchasers ofpublic transport tickets to ensure bettervalue travel for customers and staff.

• Site-specific travel plans willbecome core business at mostshopping places, helping managersensure that transport difficulties donot adversely affect competitiveness.

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Travel associated with retail is growing fasterthan for any other trip purpose. Car travel isalso growing, and accounts for over 60% ofshopping trips.

Competitive shopping placesCompetitive retail locations will bethose with high quality accessibility,such as at multi-modal transport hubs,and locations with large local populationcatchments. These locations will beeven more competitive in future thanthey are today.

Large urban areas and out-of-towncentres will attract increasing retailtrade, generally offering more attractiveand flexible transport options thansmaller centres can offer. Other retaillocations may also be attractive, butthe available options provided by localretail transport initiatives could havesignificant positive or negative impacts.

The indirect effects of wider economic,demographic and social changes onlifestyle, behaviour and attitudes willbe greater than the direct effects fromchanges in the supply of roads, parking,buses, trains, cycleways and footpaths.

The transport changes anticipatedby this review will be particularlycritical for the future of secondaryurban centres, freestanding towns,local centres and retail parks. Manyof these locations will remain viabledespite transport changes, but somewill not. Development at theselocations would benefit from adetailed local analysis of futuretransport risks.

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Summary overview

Section 1 Executive Summary

Stakeholders in transport change

People

Retailers and markets

Purchaser/market led change

More sophisticated consumers

Provider ledchange

Innovative business

Factors affecting change

Policies and politics

Smartgovernment

Informed traveller

Section 2

Context

Tighter scheduling of freight deliveries andtraffic congestion have increased both freightcosts and the numbers of vehicles needed toservice the needs of retailers.

• Retail travel is growing faster thantravel for any other trip purpose.

• The dominance of car travelcontinues to rise and currentlyaccounts for over 60% ofshopping trips.

• There is a continuing decline inwalking to the shops, but walkingstill accounts for more than aquarter of shopping trips.

• The proportion of retail travel bypublic transport is relatively stable.

• Freight journeys for retail purposeshave grown by over 15% in the lastten years.

• Transport provision is much moredependent on spending decisions byhouseholds and businesses than onpublic policy. However Governmentis becoming more proactive andcould be increasingly influentialin the future.

10



Summary

Section 2 Context

0

15

10

5

20

25

%30

Commuting Business Education Shopping Leisure All journeys

Trip timeTrip length

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Although 80% of households have access to a car, the dominance of the car for shoppingtrips is still growing. The proportionately large increases in trip lengths for shoppingcompared with other travel, can be accounted for by two main factors: people thatpreviously walked to their local stores are increasingly driving longer distances;and shoppers can avoid the worst road congestion so increases in travel time allowlarger distances to be travelled than for trips with more constraints on destinationand time of day. Work or business trips can mean that a single household car is oftennot available for shopping. Therefore the increase multiple of car-owning householdshas a disproportionate effect on the growth of shopping car trips.

Travel to the shops is a large and fastchanging transport market:

• On average, people make about 200shopping trips per year.

• Over the last 30 years, average journeylengths have increased by nearly 50%for shopping purposes. The increasesubstantially exceeds travel lengthsfor other journey purposes.

• The proportion of trips made bycar has been increasing. In 2005,

car drivers and passengers accountedfor more than 60% of shopping trips.

• The percentage of walking trips to theshops has fallen by a third in the lastten years but walking still accounts formore than a quarter of all shopping trips.

• Bus travel accounts for only 9% ofshopping trips.

• The largest increases in car shoppingtrips and trip length have been forwomen shoppers.

Source: National Travel Survey 2005

Change in average trip length and time between 1990 and 2004

Trip making

Transport markets and investment arelargely dependent on household andbusiness spending patterns:

• There is a strong and growing marketfor car travel: family expenditureon motoring has risen to 12% ofhousehold expenditure, and motoringcosts per kilometre have been fallingin real terms.

• Bus markets are declining in manyareas: costs of public transporthave been rising in real termsand household expenditure falling.

• There is strong growth in rail travel.However a large public subsidy isneeded to support this.

• Household expenditure on transportis lowest in large urban areas andhighest in rural areas.

• Over the last decade, retail freightvolumes have grown by over 15%.

• Tighter scheduling of freight deliveriesand traffic congestion have increasedboth freight costs and the numbers ofvehicles needed to service the needsof retailers.

Government investment in transportis small compared with household andbusiness expenditure, but Governmentalso influences markets through itsplanning, taxation and regulatory roles.Current proposals envisage Governmentfurther increasing its influence onretail travel, as it works in partnershipwith the retail and transport sectors.Combined with wider effects takingplace in the economy and society,retail transport markets are clearlychanging. In this context past trendscould be a poor guide to future trends.

Transport markets and investment

Section 2 Context

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Section 3

Transport Infrastructureand Transport Cost

Impacts of infrastructureand cost changesCost• Changing energy markets will create

significant fluctuations in prices.These will increase awareness oftravel costs and options, affectingtravel behaviour in complex ways.

• The costs of travel will rise, and theincreases will be greatest for rail.

• Driver wage inflation, fuel costsand requirements for out-of-hoursdeliveries will be the most importantfactors in driving up freight transportcosts. These costs will rise fasterthan general inflation.

Paying for transport• There will be increasing participation

in national voluntary road pricing,but continued opposition tomandatory participation.

• The majority of the British populationwill carry and use smart media. Thecompanies administering these mediawill gain market power for smallretail purchases, public transportand, in the longer term, road pricing.

• Parking will cost more, but retailerswill increasingly link parking costswith payment at tills.

Investment levels• Growth in public transport use

will be closely related to public

investment, which will only beprioritised in some local areas.

• Whilst short term changes in shoppertravel behaviour from transportinfrastructure will be relativelysmall, there will be many veryimportant local impacts.

• As part of the preparation for atransport future less dependenton oil, new and more expensiveenergy sources for transport willsee increased market share.

Retail property implications• In general, shopper travel behaviour

will be very much like today, buttransport cost factors will increasesteadily in importance.

• At a local level there will be somelocal big winners and losers resultingfrom infrastructure and costchanges, particularly in denselypopulated areas. Low value, lowmargin purchases will be mostvulnerable to changes.

• Increases in travel costs will havethe greatest impact on low incomegroups affecting the number andlength of trips made to lowprice supermarkets.

• Planning for road pricing could beincreasingly important for retailersin congested urban areas who aredependent on car access.

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Summary

Section 3 Transport Infrastructure and Transport Cost

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Transport investment affects retailcompetitiveness by changing therelative accessibility of locations.A new motorway junction or railwaystation can transform the prospectsfor retailers who benefit directly.

Private expenditure on transport andlogistics exceeds public funding by afactor of more than ten, and transportmarkets will continue to grow fasterthan infrastructure supply. For mostlocations accessibility by car will getslightly worse as congestion grows.

The Olympics will result in large scaleinfrastructure investment in London,and regional development aims willunderpin substantial investment inthe north. Elsewhere renewals ratherthan new infrastructure will dominateinvestment programmes in roadsand railways.

Overall, there will be some localimpacts resulting from new roads,but most other roads will be muchthe same as at present, althoughmore congested more of the time.

Infrastructure and public investment

The gap between transport department policies and wider marketsleads to unbalanced investment

Transport departmentbudgets

£15 billion Transport spending by peoplebusiness and agencies

£150 billion +

TaxationDeveloper contributions and investment

Road pricing

Road pricing


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Increasingly, Government spendingprogrammes are seeking to capturemore of the market value of transportexpenditure to help fund the infrastructureand services(i). Current plans envisagemore road user charging to increase thecapital and revenue funding availablefor all modes of transport. Local roadpricing schemes in current transportplans are likely to be extremely difficultto implement quickly. The gap betweentravel demand growth and transportinvestment will widen; in the shortterm, journey times by car, bus andtrain will rise for most journeys.

However, the growing affordabilitygap in public services generally - andtransport in particular - is likely to leadto greater acceptance by users(ii) of anational voluntary road pricing scheme.

The rate of take-up of voluntary roadpricing(iii) will be highly dependent onthe potential savings for users. Transportis a significant net generator of taxationrevenue, so there is scope for substantialtax savings to be offered by the UKTreasury. However initial savings arelikely to be modest until the impactsof direct payment for road use on travelbehaviour are better understood(iv).

Road pricing revenue could potentiallystart to replace general taxation as the

main source of funding for construction,renewal and replacement of transportinfrastructure. It could also affectinvestment needs in transport systems.Establishing a politically acceptablelevel of charges and investment,consistent with efficient transport,is complex and will take time(v).

In any case, the Government wouldalmost certainly limit the rate atwhich people can opt into road pricing.This would ensure that any majorchanges did not destabilise the economy,including the retail economy. The taxadvantages for participants would needto be set to achieve a steady but slowincrease in participation(vi). Parallelto this slow rate of change wouldbe a slow change in public opinion.By 2015, there could be significantchange in the way that transportcosts are viewed(vii).

Shopping trips are more sensitive to pricechanges than other trip purposes(viii).With any realistic road pricing scheme,charges will be lower at off peak times,encouraging more people to shop atthese times. Overall, the impacts of roadpricing on shopping in the next ten yearswill not be large, but planning for roadpricing could be increasingly importantfor retailers in congested urban areasand for those dependent on car access.

Although the financial services industry is leading the implementation of road pricing,there is no indication as yet of more widespread adoption of road pricing by retailers.Nevertheless, over the next decade it is possible that large new markets mightdevelop associated with ‘black boxes’ and smartcards. Road charging tariffs couldalso be packaged with telephone and other utility bills.

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A market price for privacy under road pricing?

An in-car ’black box’ device uses global satellitepositioning to identify where and when the car istravelling. The current Norwich Union scheme sendsdata to the company on the car’s movements, viathe mobile phone network. Lower insurance premiumsare available for drivers who avoid ‘high risk’ periods.

The Government is considering a similar approachfor road taxation. Drivers who use premium roadspace at peak periods could pay higher charges.

Users who want their movements to be confidentialwould have the option of using prepaid smartcardsrather than transmitting their vehicle movementsdirectly, via the new technology. However this wouldmean that a prepay tariff would need to be set upwithin the vehicle, increasing administrative costswhich could lead to higher road charges.

Possible timeline to road pricing

• Pre 2006 – Technology trials and product development

• 2006 – Government announces national trialsand starts procurement of support infrastructure

• Pay-as-you-go car insurance adopts GPS technology

• 2008 – Restricted testing of pay-as-you-go taxationof road use with volunteers

• 2010 – First large scale trials with open availabilityto general public

• 2012 – Transport taxation increasingly attractivefor voluntary adopters of road pricing

• 2015 – Road pricing part of mainstream motoring butcontinuing strong opposition from a significant minority

Increasing global GDP and a worldpopulation with ever-increasingexpectations of wealth and improvedlifestyle are major drivers of change.From the transport perspective, thegrowth in energy consumption and therelationship between this and economicgrowth, is of critical importance.

Based on current trends, the peak ofcheap oil production will be reachedsoon. Traditional sources will be exhaustedwithin a few decades(ix). Oil prices willtherefore increase to make new andmore expensive oil sources viable.This will also make alternatives tooil competitive, including renewableenergy sources.

Whilst energy markets re-adjust tothese new sources and costs therewill be large fluctuations in oil prices.

Replacing vehicle fleets, refuellingstations, maintenance facilities andother infrastructures with new vehiclesand facilities that can take advantageof renewable energy sources will takemany decades.

Fuel costs and energy markets


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New power sources such as fuelcells will become common by 2015

Wider use of bio-diesel is planned

The future of oil99% of transport is fuelled by oil.Steps to replace oil with renewablesources will have increasingimportance for transport.

The rising demand for oil, particularlyfrom Asia, increases the need to exploitnew and more expensive resources,including renewable alternatives.The rising demand is created by 1.5billion people in China and a billionpeople in India who are purchasingcars, installing air conditioning andcentral heating, and using the manyelectrical appliances available on themarket, and this will have a largeimpact on energy consumption.

The relation between oil prices andeconomic growth is complex. Fromtoday’s price levels for oil of around$60/barrel, much higher prices wouldbe needed before world economicgrowth fell. Until very elevated oilprices are achieved - probably wellabove $80/barrel - world economicadjustment mechanisms will result inhigher oil demand through the economicexpansion that higher oil prices bring.

The economic attractiveness of otherenergy sources (many of which aresustainable) increases progressivelyas oil prices rise above $60/barrel.For road transport these sources include:bio-diesel, compressed natural gas,liquid petroleum gas, methanol/ethanol,hydrogen/fuel cell and electricity.

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The rising demand for oil, particularlyfrom Asia, increases the need to exploitnew and more expensive resources,including renewable alternatives.

Although the markets may take timeto adjust, over the next ten yearspreparation for the end of oil willbecome increasingly widespread,influencing the wider economy andparticularly the transport sector.

In Britain, the cost of oil is a smallproportion of the total price of fuel,so significant oil price changes havea limited effect on the overall priceof fuel to travellers.

Past policy on fuel taxation(x) alsoshows that during periods with oilprice increases, political pressureresults in reductions in the level oftaxation to mitigate the impacts ofoil price rises on consumers. Thelevel of cost increase will thereforebe limited by what the public willaccept(xi). Although taxation(xii) oftransport will continue to exceedexpenditure on transport, taxationchanges are likely to be used to stabilisethe cost increases for losers from oilprice instability and from road pricing.

Emissions trading has been extensivelydiscussed at national and international

political levels, and could make fasterprogress if concern grows aboutclimate change(xiii).

It will take several years to agree publiclyacceptable carbon rations so the impactsof trading schemes in the short term willbe small(xiv). Implementation of a tradingscheme covering all modes could startwithin a decade. Legislation on carbonrationing and trading would be progressedthrough the European Parliament,extending the current planned schemefor the aviation sector to all modes(xv).Setting transport quotas well belowaverage current household transportusage would be unlikely to be publiclyacceptable. Even with unambitiousquotas, implementation of the schemecould change attitudes to transport,and reduce the number and lengthof shopping trips.

Associated with a new trading schemewould be parallel changes in policy,planning and transport administration.These could have impacts in advanceof the trading scheme with public,private and social organisationsseeking to redefine their roles.

Fuel costs and energy markets


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Even in the absence of emissionstrading, retailers are alreadyintroducing schemes to mitigatethe effects of their carbon footprints.Carbon offset options are offered ontravel products by some retailers(xvi).Carbon offsetting involves payingfor carbon-reducing projects suchas energy-efficient stoves in Indiaor reforestation in Africa and SouthAmerica. In the transport sector,the BP Oil Company is offsettingthe carbon footprint of its freightoperations and several airlinesincluding British Airways and Virginare offering voluntary schemes.

Emissions tradingEmissions trading in Europe involvesa ‘cap and trade’ approach. Theemissions ‘cap’ is the limit on thetotal amount of pollution that canbe emitted from all regulated sources;the cap is set lower than historicalemissions to cause reductions overa defined compliance period.

Allowances can be bought or sold inthe open market. Sources of emissionscan choose how to reduce emissions,including whether to buy additionalallowances from other emissionssources. At the end of each complianceperiod, each source must own at leastas many allowances as its emissions.

In Britain, the cost of oil is a small proportionof the total price of fuel, so significant oilprice changes have a limited effect on theoverall price of fuel to travellers.

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Existing stakeholders and fundingstructures will remain the dominantplayers for each mode, but neworganisations will emerge to serviceemerging payment and pricing mechanisms.

In particular, providers of smartcardsand other personal portable paymentmedia will become major purchasersof public transport, and perhaps willalso have a role in emerging roadpricing technologies.

In the short term, separate smartcards may be used but it will soonbecome standard to incorporateelectronic chips within mobile phones.

The largest smartcard scheme iscurrently the Oystercard in London,in which Transport for London is amajor stakeholder. This may limitexpansion of this brand across Britainand could leave room for a new brandor brands to emerge.

It is likely that competition betweenbrands will emerge, so the rate oftake up of smartcard ticketing couldbe rapid. By 2015 almost all public

transport ticketing is likely to usesmartcard technology(xvii).

With the majority of the British populationcarrying stored value smart media insome form, the cards are likely to becomepopular mechanisms for making smallpurchases in shops. Retailer involvementwill have a notable influence on theway these new markets and paymentmechanisms develop.

Paying for transport


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Purchasing powerSmartcards will be replacedwith smart media where chips areembedded within mobile phonesand other personal items. Userswill store sufficient funding inthese media to pay for small retailpurchases, travel, and parking.

Oyster card image reproduced through kind permission of TfL © Transport for London 2005

Freight costs

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Transport costs as a proportion of totalretail supply chain costs are a smallbut growing component(xviii). The realcosts of freight transport will continueto increase faster than inflation. Themost important factors driving upfreight transport costs will include:

• driver wage inflation• fuel costs• out-of-hours deliveries – particularly

in urban areas• increasingly demanding delivery

schedules of retailers.

Transport costs will have a greaterimpact on the competitiveness ofshopping locations. This will widenthe gap in competitiveness betweenlocations with high and low freight costs.

Edge-of-town locations near regionaldistribution centres in densely populatedareas have the lowest transport costs sowill continue to attract ‘value’ retailers.

Transport costs will have a greater impact onthe competitiveness of shopping locations thiswill widen the gap in competitiveness betweenlocations with high and low freight costs.

Other cost impacts

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Rail and parking costs will increase moresharply than other transport costs(xix):

• Rail is heavily dependent on publicsubsidy and is facing increasingdemand from users. Higher faresare likely to be the most acceptableway to manage budgets, particularlyon congested routes.

• As car ownership grows, parkingsupply will need to be managedthrough wider application of charges.In towns and cities, free parkingwill become increasingly rare.

• The higher costs for parking willgrow the market for more urban multi-storey and underground carpark areas.

• Increasingly, retailers will use vouchersystems to refund parking costs atcheckouts, ensuring that customerscan benefit from free parking.

Cost changes will have the greatestimpact on lower income householdsand their shopping patterns(xx).

Free concessionary fares will lead tomore expenditure from older shoppersin shopping places accessible by publictransport, and perhaps less spendingin local shops(xxi).

In the short term, overcapacity in themotor industry will increase competitionand will lead to further reductionsin car prices. To raise margins, carmanufacturers will therefore marketnew electric and hybrid cars moreheavily to encourage households toreplace their cars with new and moreefficient models. Initially the takeup for these will be greatest amongwealthier households able to affordthe higher capital costs associatedwith these cars as part of a lifestyle-based choice.


Section 4

Managing Passengerand Freight Transport

Impacts of changing managementand administration• There is a gap between public

understanding of transport policyand current policy and practice, sochange in transport will continue to beslow and stalled by lack of consensus.

• Parking policy, management, andenforcement will be more rigorousin most urban areas. Increasingly,retailers will be required to implementparking policies for staff andcustomers including business travelplans and more driver information.

• Site-specific travel plans will becomewidespread for retailers, helpingthem to address issues relating tostaff recruitment and travel costsin particular.

• Shopping behaviour will be partlyinfluenced by Government travelawareness campaigns, but muchmore so by retailers seeking togain market share by branding‘eco/green shopping locations’.

• Lower speed limits across the roadnetwork and better enforcementwill increase some journey timesfor shoppers.

• Bus markets will evolve significantly,with cheaper, faster trips on corenetworks and new modes for lower-demand routes.

• Future freight and supply chaintrends will largely be a continuationof current trends, but withincreased resilience throughimproved technology and realtime tracking of goods.

Retail property implications• In the face of security and energy

shocks, shopping places relianton only one mode of transportwill be vulnerable.

• Successful management of thetransport footprints of retailproperty for passengers andfreight will be more important indetermining location competitiveness.

Section 4 Managing Passenger and Freight Transport

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Summary

Regulation and legislation

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Currently, there is a gap between publicunderstanding of transport policy, andcurrent policy and practice. Whilst thiscontinues, the pressures for change inthe roles, responsibilities, and liabilitiesof transport operators, local authorities,regulators and national government arecomplex and unpredictable. In thesecircumstances, change is likely to beslow or stalled by lack of consensus.

The continued decline in bus services inmany parts of the country (see AppendixA) is likely to result in changes toregulation for bus travel. New measuresare likely to include stronger incentivesfor operators to improve performanceand quality – including ticketing. Thesereforms should see poorer performing

networks and operators achievingstandards more consistent with thebest performing networks(xxii).

Automation to improve car drivercompliance with speed limits is likely tobecome more common, but will not beprescribed by legislation for at least tenyears. The main controls will continue tobe wider deployment of speed camerasand better enforcement of licensing andinsurance for all drivers. Lower speedlimits will be extended to more of theroad network, increasing journey times.

Taxi licensing will change. As a result ofthis the availability of taxis will improve,particularly in the evenings, and higherquality standards will be achieved.

The continued decline in bus services inmany parts of the country is likely to resultin changes to regulation for bus travel.

New incentives will be introduced to grow bus markets

If public concern about climate changewere to grow, there could be fairlyrapid changes in some transport markets.Car use might be perceived as undesirableand shopping trips by public transportmight become relatively more attractive,particularly among younger groups.

The scale of such change would berelatively small since public opinionand behaviour change would belimited by established constraints ininfrastructure, policies and legislation.

The ability to undertake enjoyableshopping and leisure trips will continueto increase in importance. Even withinexisting transport system capacitythere could be changes in the typeof destinations best able to competefor this increased spend. More localshopping and the development ofdestinations in city centres with goodpublic transport would be the mainbeneficiaries of attitude change.

Culture change will be partly influencedby Government campaigns, but is likelyto be much more influenced by retailersseeking to gain market share for ‘eco/green shopping locations’. Public supportfor efficient and clean transport solutionswill grow. The importance of marketingefficient transport to shopping placeswill therefore continue to grow.

Public awareness


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Managing customer and staff travelRetailers can make transportimprovements and save money.Business travel plans help tomanage these improvementsworking with public agencyfunders and transport providers.

For example the B&Q corporatetravel plan reviews the personaltravel requirements of all staffand recommends suitable journeysolutions for business travel andhome to work trips.

At the Glasgow Fort shoppingcentre the management team hasrecruited staff locally. Nearly halfthe workforce lives within easywalking distance of the centre.

Business travel plans

There is currently a high level of activityin the development of business travelplans in some sectors(xxiii). Businesstravel plans help retailers to managecustomer and staff travel. Financialsupport with plan preparation, and insome cases implementation, is availablefrom Government.

Travel plans are becoming the normfor many organisations such as healthand leisure providers(xxiv). Increasingly,shopping places will follow similarapproaches to continue to be ableto compete in attracting staff(xxv).

Travel benefits will be used to widen thecatchments for attracting staff, particularlyfrom low mobility sectors(xxvi). Also, retailtravel plans can be used to manageparking supply for staff and shoppers(xxvii),all of whom will be faced with increasinglylimited car parking facilities.

Travel plans will become part of thecore business at most shopping placesto help managers ensure that transportdifficulties do not adversely affectcompetitiveness. Widespread deliveryof travel plans will also change theaccessibility of shopping placessignificantly, with new services andfacilities being purchased or negotiatedwith transport and parking providers.

29



Impacts of retail businesstravel plans• Retailers could become large

purchasers of public transporttickets and parking costs,bundling these with othershopper purchases.

• Public transport fares couldbecome as common a staffbenefit as company cars.

• Car parking at the workplace willbecome more expensive for staff.

• Retailers will discourage staff fromusing car park spaces which couldpotentially be used by customers.

30



The major changes in the managementof freight and logistics will be:

• where goods travel through distributionhubs managed as part of a hierarchyof local, regional, national andinternational freight movements

• where goods travel through distributionhubs managed as part of a hierarchyof local, regional, national andinternational freight movements

• continuing reductions of timefrom factory to store includingmore direct routing

• better risk management with moreresilient and agile supply chains(xxviii)

will be better able to cope withcongested roads, delivery delaysand other supply chain problems

• supply chain event managementwith real time tracking and selfregulating systems

• freight quality partnerships in localtown centres defining more clearlywhat logistics operators expectof road authorities and vice versa.

Associated with these changes willbe some growth in HGV use but verysubstantial growth in van traffic(xxix).Competition within the industryis already intensive so future trendswill largely be a continuation ofcurrent patterns.

Freight and logistics


Better risk management with more resilientand agile supply chains will be better ableto cope with congested roads, delivery delaysand other supply chain problems.

Section 5

Future Modes

32



Impacts of new modes• Car travel will continue to dominate

shopping trips, but new modes willemerge which can compete withthe flexibility of private cars. Newflexible services will allow shoppersto choose for each trip whether totravel privately or share a vehicle,to drive or be driven, and whereto pick up and drop off vehicles.

• There will be better communicationbetween transport network providers,operators and users. This will givetravellers greater confidence touse public transport and travelto new destinations.

• Fast modes such as air and highspeed rail will continue to grow,making long distance specialistshopping trips more competitive.

• New technology will allow all modesincluding freight vehicles to becomemore efficient and more automated.

Retail property implications• Increasingly, retail centres will

become hubs for demand – responsivetransport increasing the centres’value as transport nodes.

• Larger urban and out-of-towncentres will be more successful thansmaller retail sites and will reinforcetheir position as transport hubs.

Section 5 Future Modes

Summary

Driverless personal transportcan be bus or rail based

G-Wiz city cars are alreadybecoming popular

G-Wiz image taken by Martyn Goddard and reproduced through kind permission of GoinGreen

New modes

33



Car travel has provided the most flexibletransport solution for many people but,as car ownership rises, new modes areemerging that potentially offer evengreater flexibility. On a journey-by-journey basis tomorrow’s travellersare likely to have the options to driveor be driven, to travel privately or sharea vehicle, and to pick up and drop offvehicles at convenient places.

These new flexible and demand-responsivemodes will provide premium services andwill evolve from today’s car clubs(xxx),shuttles, and taxis.

Although starting from a low level of useat present, flexible public transport isgrowing very rapidly for many reasons:

• Where car parking at the residenceend is a problem, then ownership canbe more of a problem than a benefit.Being able to access a car of the rightstyle and quality for each journeymeans that a small city car(xxxi) orlarge people carrier can be selectedfor each journey as required.

• Hotel shuttles, airport transfer,shopper services and shared taxisare currently fast-growing marketsproviding faster, higher quality, andin some cases cheaper journeys thanmany fixed public transport services.

• As these modes mature, it is likelythat more transport companieswill offer these flexible services toshopping places, leading to greatercompetition. Further expansion ofthese flexible area-based servicesmay lead to market developmentof ‘swarming minibuses’ (which mayappear, for example, in a town withvery little parking). These minibusespick up and drop off passengers ondemand within a defined area.

• A further development of this approachfor the longer term is driverlesspersonal rapid transit, which wouldbecome economic if driver wagesrose further relative to infrastructurecosts. Rail-based systems have beenproposed in the UK but bus-basedsystems are also in use elsewhere(xxxii).

• Fixed bus travel will be less wellequipped to compete in increasinglycompetitive and complex markets.The role of fixed buses will be toserve a limited number of highdemand routes and to link withflexible modes to provide widernetwork coverage.

These changes to new modes will makea relatively small impact over the nextten years but will become increasinglydominant during the 21st century.

Futuristic stacking city cars could be parked alongside shopping trolleys

34



New modes


Note - Although the modes shown in light grey have not yet had successful applications in the UK, potentialsolutions have been designed and it is likely that within the next decade examples will start to emerge.

Increasing diversity and flexibility of transport modes

Fixed equivalent

Fixedroute

scheduledbus

Tram

Multiple area based responsive minibuses(swarming buses)

Personal light rapid transit

Demand responsive private transport

Demand responsive public transport

New demand responsive public transport

Private car Hire car Single user taxi

Car club Community minibus

Area based demand responsive minibuses

Hotel/airport bus

Shared taxiFlexibly

routed bus

Tomorrow’s travellers are likely to have theoptions to drive or be driven, to travel privatelyor share a vehicle, and to pick up and drop offvehicles at convenient places.

Dominant and expanding modes

Even with significant development ofthese new modes, private cars will remainthe dominant mode of transport by far,accounting for over 60% of shoppingtrips. The main changes will be thatcars will become:

• more automated – with trialsof automatic speed restrictiontechnologies in limited zones

• more efficient – with a newgeneration of cars being poweredfrom renewable sources.

In major conurbations, bus and lightrapid transport systems will providehigher quality frequent services oncore corridors. Elsewhere, the reliancewill be increasingly on flexible transport.This could increase public transportmode share for shopping to nearer 15%compared with the current figure ofaround 10%.

35



36



Dominant and expanding modes


Future modes Trends and changes

Car • Private cars will continue to dominate retail travel.• Shared ownership vehicles and car clubs will become increasingly common.• Community car and minibus schemes will replace many bus services in rural areas.

Minibuses • The current growth will continue, with particularly strong increases in demandresponsive services outside major conurbations.

• ‘Swarming minibuses’ will be piloted in a town with a population of about 50,000.

Buses, transit systems and light rail

• There will be lots of new services on busier bus routes. These will attract increasedpublic transport use.

• A demonstration personal rapid transit scheme could be implemented as a prestigiousmode for major new shopping centres or leisure attractions – for example to linka new centre to a transport hub such as a rail station.

• Electronic booking systems and vehicle despatch and management will assist greaterinteraction between managers and users of transport.

Motorcycles and scooters • Use of motor cycles and motor scooters will rise steadily, building on from the rapidexpansion in London as a result of exemption from congestion charging.

• Wider use of powered two wheelers will also increasing average road safety levelsby these modes.

Walking and cycling • The decline in walking will continue until 2010 but after that there will be modestgrowth in walking as a result of more pleasant town centres. Cycling will continueto decline for shopping trips.

Vans • Urban freight consolidation centres will become more common in some towns and citiesto keep large freight vehicles out of urban centres and ship goods to town centre shopsusing smaller vans.

• Smaller vehicles will be used between regional distribution centres and many retailersto meet increasingly demanding delivery schedules.

Goods vehicles • Increasing automation of driver functions will be made but otherwise the goods vehiclein 2015 will be very similar to current vehicles.

Future modes

Section 6

The Informed Traveller

38



Impacts of better informed travellers• Most travellers will carry mobile

communication systems that willhave capabilities to assist with routechoice through road and publictransport systems. As more peoplerely on these, there will be verysignificant changes in travel behaviouras people want more flexibility.

• New and better information provisionwill be increasingly important inhelping shoppers choose a shoppingdestination. Navigation systemsbundled with mobile devices willbe used both for marketing andto develop shopper brand loyalty.

• Bus and rail will become much moreattractive as travellers are able todo more things whilst travelling,remaining informed and connectedusing new information systems.

• There will be increased resiliencein supply chains through improvedtechnology and real time trackingof goods.

Retail property implications• Centres with good access using a

variety of modes will become morecompetitive. These will be locatedon major transport routes and inurban centres.

Section 6 The Informed Traveller

Summary

PDAs with real time updates will make public transport more attractive

Information and marketing

39



Perhaps the greatest impacts ontransport in the coming decade willcome from better informed travellersbecoming more sophisticated consumers.The gap between public understandingof transport and transport policy hasdefined many of the most pervasivebarriers. Closing this gap could leadto major changes in behaviour.

The last ten years have seen ownershipand reliance on mobile phones growfrom belonging to a minority of thepopulation to attaining penetrationof the mass market. The next tenyears will consolidate the behaviouraland market influences of these newtechnologies. Increasingly, travellershave the option to be permanentlylinked to information systems, informingand guiding them through their journey.

Information technologies are thereforetransforming the scope for new transportsolutions, changing both transport supplyand demand.

New information systems, such as PersonalDigital Assistants (PDAs) and satellitenavigation systems are increasinglyimportant retail products in their ownright. However their impact on retailmarkets could be greater through theiruse rather than through their purchase.Information will change the customer-provider relationship in transport, creatinga new ‘informed traveller’ who will behavevery differently from today.

Today’s high specification driverinformation systems highlight congestionproblems and suggest alternative routes.Future systems may also suggest alternativedestinations or times of day for plannedtrips. Users will be able to allow systemsto log their regular travel, so that theycan be informed of relevant problemssuch as cancelled trains, road accidentsor weather problems in time to influencetravel choices.

The travel behaviour of shoppers will beincreasingly dependent on recommendationsfrom these information and navigationsystems(xxxiii).

Over the next decade, the combinationof traveller information for shoppingtrips, and retail marketing of productswill see growth.

• New car satellite navigation systemscurrently show filling stations anda range of destination types includingaccommodation providers and shoppingplaces. The software bundled with thesesystems will be increasingly importantin the choice of shopping location.

• PDAs with GPS and public transporttimetable information mean thatpublic transport will become a morepractical option for shopping tripsto unfamiliar centres, and shouldbecome an attractive option fortrips where parking availabilityis poor or parking costs are high.

40



• Dynamic information is already alertingtravellers about disruption in transportsystems. Business structures are nowin place to manage and distribute thisinformation. These systems are likelyto develop rapidly towards massmarket applications.

• Increasingly, new cars will comeequipped with satellite navigation.The bundled software with networkinformation will link selected transportand retail brands. Sales of dynamicdriver information systems will alsostart to increase and there will bea mass market in these that willgradually supersede the market forstatic information. Dynamic systemswill not only include increasinglyaccurate information about roadconditions and congestion, buttravellers will also be able tosubscribe to information servicessuch as special offers from retailers.

• 3G and wi-fi communicationsare allowing travellers to stayin contact whilst on the move,allowing easy access to onlinesearches for the next shoppingdestination. With widespreadgeographic coverage of thesenetworks in urban areas, travellerswill increasingly use their PDAsto search for the best pricedgoods whilst on the move.

• Drivers who are informed of thereal costs of each car journey usingincreasingly automated informationsystems may behave very differentlyfrom today’s car users. Surveys ofshoppers show that fuel and othermotoring costs are consistentlyunderestimated by car users(xxxiv). Thecosts of filling the fuel tank and ofvehicle maintenance are not includedin day-to-day travel decisions.

Information and marketing

Section 6 The Informed Traveller

Users will be able to allow systems to log theirregular travel, so that they can be informedof relevant problems such as cancelled trains,road accidents or weather.

Driver information will becomeincreasingly sophisticatedExisting dynamic driver informationsystems continuously update networkinformation based on prevailingcongestion, but are more costlythan static systems which assumefreeflow network speeds.

Future information systems willhave more functions. They will helpshoppers to identify suitable shoppingplaces, using searches of businessdatabases (e.g. Yellow Pages) andmarketing information.

Section 7

People, Lifestylesand Retail Markets

42



Section 7 People, Lifestyles and Retail Markets

Impacts of retail market and lifestylechange on transportChanging retail markets affect transport• Relationships between transport

and retail markets will becomestronger with retailers becomingmore involved in selling accessto transport services.

• There will be greater personalisationof products, growth in business sizeand more sophisticated logistics.

Technological and lifestyle change• Personal travel experiences will

become more important in theshopping choices of individuals.

• There will be significant andcomplex impacts on transport aspeople embrace new e-lifestylesand adopt new technologies.

• The changes will be greatest inthe densely populated and fastestgrowing parts of the country,particularly the south east.

Planning and regulation• Competition within markets will be

the primary driver of change, butplanning and regulation will havean increasingly greater influenceon retail transport investment.

• The role of planning is evolving,and the influence of planning ontransport aspects of retail developmentapplications will continue to becomemore unpredictable.

• Bus and rail will become much moreattractive as travellers are able todo more things whilst travelling,remaining informed and connectedusing new information systems.

• There will be increased resiliencein supply chains through improvedtechnology and real time trackingof goods.

Retail property implications• Centres with good access using a

variety of modes will become morecompetitive. These will be locatedon major transport routes and inurban centres.

Summary

Transport needs in changing retail markets

The need for competitiveness is theprimary driver of change in retailmarkets. Current trends involve:

• fewer but larger firms leading toeconomies of scale(xxxv): between1995 and 2005 the number of retailorganisations fell by 20% but thenumber of firms with over 500employees rose by 10%.

• new roles for shops: increasingly,sophisticated management andlogistics systems are extendingfrom factory to home.

• greater personalisation in customerbusiness relationships includingtransport products.

• wider, deeper retail ranges includingmore links between retail and transportmarkets (see Future Business Modelspart of the Future of Retail Propertyseries, BCSC).

Transport has influence over bothretail business costs (location) andsales because of its influence on accessfor customers. The savings on transportcosts for retail businesses from out-of-

town development will see an increasedneed to be balanced against the highertransport costs for customers.

Road congestion will not increasesubstantially in major cities and mostrural areas, but edges of towns andcities will continue to experiencesubstantially increased congestion.This congestion will reduce theattractiveness of these locations,particularly for low price retailers.

E-retailing is providing new shopwindows allowing people to traveland shop differently(xxxvi). The greaterinformation and flexibility that thesenew opportunities offer customers willlead to more sharply focused shoppingand leisure trips, but these are alsolikely to be longer trips in many cases.

Globalisation is also resulting insignificant increases in internationalsourcing by retailers, increasingdemand for inter- and intra-continentaltransport. This will lead to increaseddelays at some entry infrastructures(port, air-freight, etc), requiringsome re-adjustment of schedulingwithin supply chains.

43



There are increasing links between transport and retail markets

44



Retail markets and transport change


Retail market change Transport changes and new transport needs

Fewer but bigger firms • Closure of small local retailers will lead to additional travel to larger retail centres.• Retailers will expand their role in transport markets, influencing fuel sales and smart

media that can be topped up for public transport and parking. Bus companies and to alesser extent rail companies will sell most of their tickets through cash machines, internetand retail stores, and supermarket forecourts will account for the majority of fuel sales.

• Multi-positioning of firms and branding of more products will lead to more widespreadmergers and partnerships between transport companies and retail companies(xxxvii).Examples include ‘Tesco bus’, ‘BMW clothing’.

• Information and marketing of retail and transport experiences will becomeclosely aligned(xxxviii).

Sophisticated management and logistics systems

• A network of local collection and distribution points (CDP) have been envisaged for sometime. A major national chain of stores/offices/service points will pilot a CDP networklocally helping to show how a national network can be rolled out(xxxix).

• Partly as a result of the economies achieved in home/local delivery, including savingsin reverse logistics, there will be a rapid increase in the delivery of goods with at leasta doubling of the home/local delivery market.

• To service the growing needs of all customers there will be more specialist logistics services. • Growth in e-retailing will increase the size of retail markets. The travel demands of both

shoppers and goods will also grow(xl).

More links betweentransport andretail markets

• Some transport products are bundled with other retail products. These include parkingvouchers at the tills and discounted fuel, car hire, and rail fares. The type and rangeof bundled transport products will expand significantly to include discount car insurance,bus fares and vouchers for vehicle servicing. This will reduce shopping transport costsfor some people.

• Associated with the product packaging will be greater personalisation in customer businessrelationships. Brand loyalty will lead to growing sales of transport products through retailchains, particularly for younger people.

• The rapid growth of retailing at transport nodes will accelerate, as transport nodes becomerelatively more competitive locations in increasingly congested networks. New transportnodes, such as Park and Ride schemes for example will include retail facilities.

Retail markets and transport change

People, places and lifestyles

People’s travel horizons and expectationsare growing. This will lead to morespecialised shopping trips, greater demandsfor improved transport experiences,increased variety-seeking in shoppingtrips, and greater differences betweenthe travel and shopping behaviour ofdifferent people.

Large urban areas and out-of-towncentres will attract increasing retailtrade, offering more attractive transportthan smaller centres.

Larger supermarkets will continue togrow on the edge of towns and citiesin the absence of suitable affordableland in urban centres. Accessibility willbe maintained in the face of growingcongestion through longer opening hours,allowing more people to shop off-peak.

Growth in traffic congestion will begreatest in smaller towns. They willbecome less pleasant and less attractiveplaces to shop and will lose market shareto larger centres. This will increase thedemand for shopping at large shoppingplaces where continuing investment willcreate more attractive and competitiveplaces to shop. The increase in traveldistances people make to the largercentres will reinforce these trends further.

The increasingly ageing populationwill include more non-drivers, whichmay help to support local shopping.These people would need to rely onpublic and community transport tolarger centres (Consumers over 55:Silver Shoppers Provide a GoldenOpportunity, part of The Futureof Retail Property series, BCSC).

45



Growth in traffic congestion will be greatestin smaller towns. They will become lesspleasant and less attractive places to shopand will lose market share to larger centres.

46



The economic gap between the southeast of England and other parts ofBritain will grow(xlix). This will resultin more intensive land use and travelin the south, and increasingly stringentplanning requirements.

In the south east, expectationsfor transport systems will change,with greater acceptance of roadcongestion and higher requirementsfrom public transport.

People, places and lifestyles


Changes in people and places Impacts on transport

Demographic change • 10% population growth in the South East by 2016 will lead to increasingly congestedtransport systems.

• There will be increased mobility generally, and increased structural and conscious cardependence for shopping trips for over half the population. Car-accessible shoppinglocations will continue to win increased market share.

• More smaller and in particular one-person households will widen the existing gapbetween car ownership in central urban locations and other areas(xli).

• The ageing population will have a higher reliance on public and community transport(xlii).• Ethnicity will become increasingly complex with mixed cultures leading to new transport

cultures and expectations in some areas. For example, some groups prefer taxis whileothers prefer buses or trains.

Changes in shopping behaviour • There will be a steady increase in multi-purpose trips increasing the preferenceand need for car travel(xliii).

• There will be greater willingness to spend longer travelling to shops(xliv).• Growth in healthy travel choices as a result of concerns about obesity will drive

growth in some local food shopping markets(xlv).

Attitude and behaviour change • More information and greater awareness of shopping options will increase trip lengthsand travel horizons steadily. This will mean that minor shopping places will loseout to larger centres(xlvi).

• Geographical communities will continue to be replaced with new communities definedaccording to interests and lifestyles(xlvii).

• Frequent changes of job will require more flexible transport systems(xlviii) and willresult in travel patterns that are less stable.

• Increasing differentiation in travel and shopping behaviour between different groupssuch as ‘car addicts’ ‘reluctant motorists‘ and ‘die-hard environmentalists’.

Impacts of people, places and lifestyles on transport

Technological change

The last ten years have been dominatedby the rapid changes in technology withwidespread mass adoption of computers,mobile phones and many other associatedtechnologies. The factors(l) affecting thefuture rate of change are numerous,uncertain and complex. However theoverall rate of adoption of technologywill increase and impact on retailtransport in new ways(li).

Direct impacts of technology on transportare discussed in Sections 3 and 6. Indirectimpacts from people, lifestyles and retailmarkets(lii) will be:

• technology increasingly balancingeconomic growth with social andenvironmental goals

• improved levels of safety

• wider gaps between haves and have-nots(liii)

• increased waste and as a resultgrowth in waste managementand recycling businesses

• increasing standardisation oftechnologies such as operating systemsof computers/information systems;but also an increasing suspicion thatstandard technologies could underminecompetition in technology markets

• new energy technologies with associatedenergy shocks in existing markets

• increased security concerns, includingsome violent reactions from losersin the digital age, resulting in growthof ‘secure environments’.

47



The last ten years have been dominated by therapid changes in technology with widespreadmass adoption of computers, mobile phonesand many other associated technologies.

48



There has been a steady growth inregulations(liv) in recent years. Consumersare expecting higher standards ofprotection, and public opinion appearsto be supporting further increases inregulations(lv). If concerns about theenvironment, security and well beinggrow sharply, the future might be muchmore dominated by regulatory controls.

Planning and regulation are shapingfuture transport:

• Transport requirements for newdevelopment are influencing planningdecisions to a greater extent(lvi).

• Planning is becoming more effectivein reducing the level of induced longertrips, particularly by car(lvii).

• One possibility is that the planningsystem might become more proactive,working with markets to achieveplanned development consistentwith a political rather than marketview of the future. Governmentpolicy is already seeking to securethis more proactive and managedapproach, but progress is slow(lviii).

• Increased requirements for transportinfrastructure as part of retaildevelopment will continue to putgreater pressure on larger centresboth in town and out of town.

Overall the influence of planning ontransport aspects of retail developmentapplications will continue to becomemore unpredictable(lix).

Despite these possible increases inregulation, the primary influencesover future provision will continueto be competition and market forces.For example, in Scotland - where thepopulation mainly lives in large cities,small towns and rural areas - new

retail development has mainly been out of town (In Town or Out of Town?part of the Future of Retail Propertyseries, BCSC). Such development canhelp to intercept trips to cities fromlarge rural hinterlands reducingtrip lengths(lx).

More discerning shoppers will drivefuture change even more than today.The overall impact of planning onshopping travel patterns will not belarge, but there may still be somesignificant local impacts related toindividual developments.

Planning and regulation


Transport is becoming anincreasing barrier whenplanning retail developmentAlthough slightly different systemsapply in different parts of the UK,the approach is generally similar.Planning has three main tiers:national, regional and local andthere have been frequent changesto make the system more efficientand effective.

Planning seeks to harmonisetransport proposals betweeneach planning level and with landuse plans. Although harmonisationremains elusive, progress has beenmade towards greater consistencyand this increases the influenceof planning over future transport.

The local transport plans andregional transport strategiescurrently being prepared in Englandare intended to further improve co-ordination between land use andtransport plans by linking with localdevelopment frameworks, regionaleconomic strategies, and regionalspatial strategies.

Section 8

How Much Change and How Fast?

50



• The transport industry has been slowto change but the role of transportin affecting competitiveness isbecoming more important.

• Faster and more substantial changeis increasingly being achieved bylinking transport initiatives withmarket and lifestyle changes.

• The major impacts on retail travelare likely to be driven by retailmarkets and increasingly wellinformed travellers.

• Information, management andcost factors are likely to have thegreatest impact on retail property.

Section 8 How Much Change and How Fast?

Stakeholders in transport change

People

Retailers and markets

Purchaser/market led change

More sophisticated consumers

Provider ledchange

Innovative business

Factors affecting change

Policies and politics

Smartgovernment

Summary

Informed traveller

Transport, communications and retailchange are inextricably linked and areevolving in complex ways. The transportindustry has been slow to changebecause of the following factors:

• Infrastructure provision, particularlyroad, rail and tram networks, takea long time to plan and build.

• The industry is heavily regulated,so new technologies and practicesface many barriers.

• There is caution within Governmentand markets about implementingpolicy and practice changes capableof destabilising the wider economy.Transport accounts for about 15% ofhousehold expenditure(lxi), and generatessubstantial taxation revenue.

• There is a low level of confidenceamongst transport professionals aboutthe ability of the sector to deliversubstantial policy changes(lxii).

Yet as competitive pressures growwithin the economy generally - and theretail economy specifically - the role oftransport in affecting competitivenessis becoming more important(lxiii). Muchfaster and more substantial change intransport is likely to be achieved bylinking transport planning with thewider economy and society(lxiv).

Appendix D discusses the scale ofchange that might derive from actionby businesses, Government and informed

travellers. Across Britain, it is unlikelythat short term change will be led byGovernment as it has been in London.Achieving political structures capableof managing such changes would takemany years. The major impacts on retailtravel in the next ten years are muchmore likely to be driven by retail marketsand increasingly well informed travellers.

Information, management and cost factorsemerge as the transport levers likely tohave the greatest impact over the futureof retail property. It should be emphasisedthat these are not necessarily the mostimportant factors in absolute terms butare the most important predicted changes.

Some factors, such as increasingrestrictions on freight delivery times,will impact more on transport thanon the competitiveness of retaillocations. Other factors such assupply chain event management willbe relatively important for retailers.

Fast-developing information technologywill become an increasingly importantbattleground, influencing people’stravel patterns with a direct impacton retail competitiveness.

Where cost and information factorsare combined, such as linked tariffs(lxv)

for travel costs, navigation informationand telephone on PDAs and mobilephones (e.g. parking, road charges,telephone calls, retail loyalty discounts,transport fares), then the impacts arelikely to be particularly significant.

51



Information, management and cost factors emergeas the transport levers likely to have the greatestimpact over the future of retail property.

Impact of change

These impacts are averages. A particular site may suffer very badly if there is alocalised congestion issue resulting from poor traffic management. Retail businesstravel plans will have little or no impact unless they genuinely offer more attractivetravel choices.

Section 8 How Much Change and How Fast?

52



The scale of change and impacts on retail property

Impact of change

Fewer but bigger retailers PDAs, navigation, andinformation systems

New fuels andvehicle technology

Car clubs andother public cars

Supply chain risk andevent management

Non fuel transportand parking costs

Energy shocksFuel/energy costs

Security concerns

Planning policy

Transport impacts on retail

Multi-sector marketing

Personalisation of customer/consumer relationships

Retailing at transport nodes

Smartmedia

Road pricing

Restrictions on freight deliveries

Growth in highspeed travel

Demographic change

Low

Low

Hig

h

Scale of transport change

Impo

rtan

ce f

or r

etai

l pr

oper

ty c

ompe

titi

vene

ss

High

New roads and railways

Growth of e-shoppingand home delivery

Business travel plan

Busier transport systemsand growing congestion

Change in transportregulation

Retail impacts on transport

Section 9

Overview of Impactson Retail Property

54



Summary

This overview of transport change has identified five main themes that definethe relationship between future transport and the future of retail property.Retail travel in 2015 will look quite like retail travel today, but the emergingpricing, technologies and lifestyles will be gaining momentum.

• Increasingly, good transport willbe defined in terms of accessibility,efficiency, flexibility and informationalthough current definitions bymode, infrastructure and ownershipwill remain important.

• Successful retail property will beassociated with choice of mode,managed support for customertravel, pleasant transportenvironments, and good parking.

Section 9 Overview of Impacts on Retail Property

Transport infrastructure and transport cost: There is a shift towards an ‘access’economy with ownership becoming less important for some people and organisations

• Parking will cost more, but retailers will increasingly link parking costs withpayment at tills.

• ‘Demand management’ by government to keep traffic moving will give way toaccessibility planning to secure social, economic and environmental goals suchas better access.

• It will become slightly more expensive to drive and significantly more expensiveto take the train.

Managing passenger and freight transport: More customer-responsive and better regulated

• The effects of management and pricing changes will be substantial and will includebusiness travel plans, driver information, road pricing and network management.

• Bus markets will evolve significantly, with cheaper, faster trips on core networksand new modes for lower-demand routes.

• There will be more major shocks from energy and security concerns.

Future Modes: Transport modes are evolving. Successful modes are faster, more flexible,cleaner, safer, and better regulated

• Car travel will continue to be the dominant mode and will probably increase its shareof the retail travel market outside London.

• Growth in public transport markets will be greatest for flexible, responsive and highspeed modes.

• There will be increasing preparation for a post-oil transport world with mass marketsemerging for new vehicle technologies.

The Informed Traveller: In the new ‘information age’, major drivers of retailtransport change will be the developing integration between transport, electronicand communication networks

• Technology will help people to manage the increasing complex choices available.• The ‘always on’ 24-hour connected society will require more flexible transport.

People, lifestyles and retail markets: Lifestyle and shopping trends will require higherquality transport experiences

• Retail locations with high quality access, such as town centres and large shoppingplaces, will dominate and other locations will decline.

• Retailers will become more involved in selling access to transport services, includingelectronic ticketing, with the large retailers negotiating good deals with transportproviders for wholesale purchase of these services.

The main transport changes

Overall impacts on retail locations

These characteristics can be appliedto typical retail locations to showthe transport factors affecting thecompetitiveness of each type of location.

The anticipated transport changes willbe particularly critical for secondaryurban centres, freestanding towns, localcentres and retail parks. For other centres,the changes in transport will still beimportant but are likely to dependmore on the indirect transport effects.

For all locations, the indirect effects ofwider economic and social changes onlifestyle, behaviour and attitudes willbe greater than the direct effects fromchanges in the supply of roads, parking,buses, trains, cycleways and footpaths.

There will be many exceptions to theimpacts shown in the table. Location-specific transport analysis taking accountof local transport plans is needed tomake accurate local predictions.

These transport changes will affect retail property in complex ways that willmanifest themselves differently in each local context. Despite this, there aresome characteristics of retail property consistent with future transport thatwill affect the success of future developments(lxvi).

55



Characteristics of shopping placesconsistent with future transport

Characteristics of shopping placesinconsistent with future transport

Retail locations at transport hubs Reliance on only one mode

Well managed supply of parking,free for the use of customers

Unmanaged constrained parking supply

Personalised information and supportto help fund and manage customertravel time, mode, parking, costand other factors

No support from retailers despiteincreasing parking constraints,costs and congestion

Pleasant transport environmentaround the shopping centre

Poor walking environment nearthe shops and congested streets

Large local catchment populationwith good accessibility

Limited local population/shopper/employee catchment

Support for flexible transport Reliance on fixed transport

Transport and future retail property

56



Overall impacts on retail locations

Section 9 Overview of Impacts on Retail Property

Retail location type Transport factors affecting competitiveness of locations

A major city centre suchas Bristol or Manchester

• Already dependent on multiple modes of transport for access, and well placed to copewith increasingly stretched transport systems. Locations near established transporthubs will increase in attractiveness for existing and new retailers.

Other major centres such asOxford, Exeter, or Dundee

• Transport will be a critical factor. Where these centres emulate the transport hubsof the major cities, they could perform very well. However some major centreswill be big losers if congestion levels, parking costs, and public transport supplyare uncompetitive with other centres.

Metropolitan towns such asKingston on Thames, Altrincham

• These towns will be increasingly attractive intercept locations for people who do nothave time to travel into the major centres.

Regional freestanding townssuch as Taunton and Falkirk

• Competitiveness will be heavily dependent on effectiveness of transport elementsof town centre management and marketing.

Urban centres • Successful locations near car parks, transport interchanges and in pedestrianisedstreets will define how these centres consolidate their general decline.

Local centres • The rate of decline of each local centre will be most significantly affected byconvenience and attractiveness of short trips, with walking to and within the localcentre acting as major factors.

Rural centres such as Hay-on-Wye and Penrith

• Future success will be defined around innovative or speciality retailing, with suitabletransport to support the identity (such as heritage transport tours to Bridgnorth,bicycles in Peebles and books in Hay-on-Wye).

Out of town regional centressuch as Trafford

• Peak period congestion may limit expansion, but overall the attraction of these centreswill be fairly stable, and could be enhanced with improved multi-modal accessibility.

Purpose built district centres • Convenience of transport will define success. Easy parking and branded bus routeswill be consistent with the low effort purchases at these locations.

Factory outlet centres • Attractive transport solutions with free flowing roads are needed to maintain the marketfor extended leisure shopping visits.

Fashion parks • Longer journey times and higher costs will not deter the growth in attractivenessof these centres for leisure shopping.

Retail parks • Local congestion on surrounding road networks will be a significant deterrent,encouraging shoppers to choose alternative locations or to use internet shopping.

Transport factors by retail location type

Accessibility, flexibility and information

Transport and retail sectors haveachieved large gains in efficiencyin recent years. The flow of goodsand services between suppliers andconsumers is now faster and cheaper.Although there is scope for furtherefficiency gains, even greater challengesand opportunities may lie elsewhere.

Within emerging retail and transportmarkets, accessibility, informationand flexibility will be the majordrivers of change.

• Access rather than mobility will definepeople’s shopping opportunities bothonline and in-store.

• Public transport smart tickets and roadpricing products (including in-car GPSunits) will emerge as increasinglyimportant new markets.

• Informed travellers will be moresophisticated consumers. Transportmarketing has been dominated bytelling and selling. Stronger customerrelationships are emerging withinboth transport and retail sectorsthat will increasingly cross boundariesbetween marketing in the two sectors.

• Managed approaches to workplacetravel will increasingly tacklestaffing problems.

Changes to regulation and taxation couldsignificantly speed up the rate at whichthese trends develop. Tax benefits forroad pricing participants and incentivesfor renewable fuels could significantlyaccelerate the rate of change.

Retailers and consumers face majoruncertainties about the future ofretail travel. Developers and shoppersneed to work within these uncertaintiesin order to develop locations and modesof transport with enough flexibilityto inspire the future success of theindustry. This report aims to support:

• industry as it manages theseuncertainties

• policy makers and planners asthey work to reduce uncertainties

• transport providers as they developnew market opportunities

• more sophisticated consumers who willbuy into the future of retail transport.

57



58



Section 10

Appendices andAdditional Resources

60



Appendix A: Transport trends

Trip characteristicsShopping and personal business trips account for over a quarter of all trips andthis percentage is increasing. Of nearly 1000 trips made per person per year onaverage over a quarter are for shopping. The graph below shows that the caris the dominant mode with about 80,000 trips made as a car driver and 40,000as a car passenger to the shops each year.

Section 10 Appendices and Additional Resources

0

40

20

60

100

80

120

Work Education Shopping Leisure

Car driver Car passengerWalk Bus Rail/underground Other

Purpose

Thou

sand

tri

ps p

er a

nnum

Trips per person per year by purpose

Over the last 30 years, average journeylengths have increased by nearly 50%but the time spent travelling has beenfairly static. This reflects the fact thatas transport has improved people havebeen able to travel further. Neverthelessthe stability of travel time budgets overtime in the face of major changes totransport systems is remarkable(lxvii). Withelectronic communications there is someevidence that the ability to undertake moreactivities whilst travelling is increasing thelength of time and distances that peopleare prepared to travel.

The time spent on each trip has beenincreasing. Since 1990, with rising congestionon the roads, less ambitious timetablingof rail journeys, reduced bus networkcoverage, and changing land use patterns,the average time spent on journeys withfixed destinations such as for work andbusiness has risen by over 15%. In contrast,where users have been able to choosetheir destination, such as for shoppingand leisure, the time spent on each triphas risen by less than half this amount.

The largest increase in average triplengths has been for shopping. This trippurpose has experienced the greatestincrease in choice and opportunity.The increases have stemmed in part frommore options to take advantage of newand better shopping opportunities andthe need to travel further to reach thesenew shopping destinations. The largestincreases have been for women shopperswith increases in car ownership allowinglonger shopping trips. There has alsobeen substantial growth in shoppingat edge-of-town sites. With easier caraccess, shoppers have the option totravel to stores on the edge of largertowns, avoiding the more congestedtown centres in smaller towns wherethey live.

There is considerable difference inpersonal transport trip patterns in thecase of shopping for food as comparedto shopping for non-food items. Non-food trips, although less frequent,are almost twice as long as foodtrips (9km compared with 4.8km).

61



Cost of transportIn real terms, average weekly household expenditure(lxviii) on motoring has nearlydoubled since the early 1980s whilst expenditure on other transport fares has beenrelatively static.

As a proportion of family expenditure,motoring costs have also been increasingand reached 12% in the 2003-2005period. This is paralleled with a fallin real terms in the cost of motoring.

The lowest proportion of householdexpenditure on transport is in large

urban areas (13%) and the highest is insmall towns and rural areas (16%)(lxix). InLondon about 18% of the transport spendis on public transport compared with 5-8% in other urban areas and less than 5%in rural areas. Costs of public transporthave also been rising in real terms andexpenditure on public transport declining.

0

30

10

20

40

60

50

£70

Average weekly household expenditure on transport

1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994-95 1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05

Weekly expenditure on other transport faresWeekly household expenditure on motoring

Average weekly household expenditure on transport

The lowest proportion of householdexpenditure on transport is in largeurban areas (13%) and the highest isin small towns and rural areas (16%).

Trends in transport marketsThese cost changes are partly due to the changing markets for travel with:• a strong and growing market for car travel• fragile traditional bus markets but strong growth in some areas and sectors• strong growth in rail travel, but a requirement for large public subsidy to support this.

62



One of the main problems faced bytransport markets is that they arepoorly understood by users(lxx). Flexible,growing markets can make cost effectiveinvestments and bring prices down,but declining markets are unattractivefor both customers and investors.

Price of transport is not the maindeterminant for users when deciding howto travel(lxxi). Decisions make implicit andexplicit trade-offs between travel timeand cost, alongside many other quality,reliability and cultural factors(lxxii).Attractive travel choices therefore relyon improved co-ordination betweenoperators, and between transport modes,to reduce the generalised cost of journeysusing single or multiple modes(lxxiii).

Competitive transport markets continueto grow.

• In general, car travel is by farthe largest provider of transport.

• Car travel tends not to be thepreferred mode for certain inter-city journeys and for trips startingor ending in central London, whererail may have some market power.

• In the right market conditions, localbus services compete with car traveland low-cost coach services are growingon many longer distance routes.

60

90

70

80

100

120

130

140

150

110

160

Change in distance travelled by mode (1990 Index 100)

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Rail and light rail CarLondon bus Walk Bus (GB exc. London)

Change in distance travelled by mode (1990 Index 100)


Appendix A: Transport trends

63



• There is sometimes insufficientcapacity or demand to permitcompetition (for example, on therail network or in remote areas),and in these cases the size ofthe market depends on decisionsof regulatory authorities andpublic funders.

• New niche markets are growingstrongly such as demand-responsivetransport from airports and othermajor trip attractors.

• A growing number of ‘consciousobjectors’ to car travel areunderpinning growth in someother transport markets.

• Regulatory reform in transport is likelyto be an important factor influencingfuture trends. On balance this is likelyto improve the competitive positionof public transport, particularly bustravel relative to car travel.

Travel behaviourTravel behaviour is changing, partly asa result of growing lifestyle expectationsand incomes, and partly as a responseto the changes in the built environmentand markets. Road transport continuesto be one of the few markets wheredemand is managed more throughsupply constraints rather than price.

Mode choice and destination choiceare strongly related. People will oftenchoose a shopping destination if cartransport is a suitable mode for theirtrip, particularly if they have goodsor passengers to carry. 70% of thepopulation live in suburbs and currentlyout-of-town locations are more attractivefor car access. Predicting how peoplewill respond to changing transportopportunities is complex.

Perhaps the greatest problem inunderstanding and predicting travelbehaviour is that socio-economic anddemographic characteristics are muchpoorer predictors of behaviour thanbehavioural data such as ‘adventureseeking’, ‘travel liking’, ‘social andenvironmental consciousness’, etc.Motivation to travel is thereforeimportant, particularly for shoppingtravel. Behaviour is very differentfor frequent necessary short tripse.g. for food.

When attitudes in society change,then behaviour mirrors this closely.Drink driving and seat belt wearingare two well known examples in relationto motoring. Past trends are thereforenot necessarily a guide to future trends.This presents a problem in predictingtravel behaviour in a fast changingworld. In particular:

• The public response to growingconcern about climate change isunknown and could have substantialimpacts on behaviour.

• Technological change, such asinformation and communicationstechnology (ICT) developments,means that people can respondto changes very differently whencompared to past responses underdifferent circumstances. Elasticityin travel demand for example asa reaction to travel price changesmay not be an accurate predictorof future behaviour.

• Personal behavioural data sourceshave not been available in the past,although this is changing with thecollection of storecard data bysome retailers.

64



Transport policies fall into three main categories:• Infrastructure development• Products and services • Complementary initiatives

This Appendix provides an overview of the impacts of these policies.

Infrastructure developmentNational policy(lxxiv) identifies that thereis not just a need for improvementsto transport networks, but a need tomake better use of the capacity thatis already available.

Changes to transport infrastructure andthe built environment work in parallel.The development of the railwaynetwork in the 19th century helpedto create viable cities associated withindustrialisation. In the 20th centurythe progressive development of carownership helped to support the suburbsand the development of the servicesector. The emergence of the internetis supporting new patterns of businessand lifestyle that are only startingto emerge. As the pace of changeaccelerates, it can be expected thatthe changes which will occur inthe next 50 years will be at leastas substantial as the developmentswhich occurred over the last century.

The table titled ‘Impacts of infrastructureon future transport’ on page 66summarises the main mechanismsof change and how these will impacton future transport.

Although there is increasing emphasison the role of Government as afacilitator rather than a delivererof transport systems, progress inthis direction has been slow. Decisionmaking on investment in road andrail networks is still almost entirelycontrolled by public bodies.

This has led to anomalies in delivery,with Government prepared to intervenein the transport markets it largelycontrols in very major ways, such asby supporting the introduction of roadpricing. In contrast, Government hastaken a relaxed view towards developingpartnerships with providers of servicesto ensure improved access for all(Halden 2005). From the perspective ofconsumers, the choice of location dependson both the transport and non-transportfactors. Sustainable growing markets willonly be achieved if relevant partnerswork together. For example, to improveaccess to local shops, partnershipapproaches to local network managementcould have a greater potential impactthan many more expensive or complexchanges to infrastructure. New accessibilityplanning approaches are seeking todeliver this joint approach (DfT 2004).

Appendix B: Transport policy impacts


National policy identifies that there is not justa need for improvements to transport networks,but a need to make better use of the capacitythat is already available.

Transport has real market value forshopping trips. If the cost of travel rises,then the competitiveness of locationschanges. From the graph on page 11 itappears that shoppers have been ableto escape the main costs of increasingcongestion by taking advantage of freeunderutilised road space and travellingto more distant destinations. Sparecapacity is becoming increasingly rare.

Shopping places must not only beaccessible to the population theyserve (in terms of both public andprivate transport) but also must beaccessible to the pedestrian. Keyattributes for the pedestrian havebeen defined in terms of walkingcatchment areas from gatewayssuch as public transport terminiand car parks (DCLG 2002).

Each infrastructure network hasstrengths in terms of the particularlength of a given trip. For long distancetravel the main choice is betweenrail and air transport and for regionaltransport road transport becomesincreasingly competitive. For shoppingtrips, car and bus are the two most

competitive modes. The reluctanceof car owning households in the UKto use buses (a characteristic notshared by most other Europeancountries), means that car travel isparticularly important for shopping.

However cars need to be parked andparking supply is increasingly limitedin residential areas, town centres andat major trip attractors. Most parkingpolicies aim to meet a complex mix ofobjectives including managing demand,providing an income stream to the localauthority and preventing trade frommigrating to other economic centres.

Of particular concern to parking supplyis the large number of multi-storey carparks in town centres built in the 1960sand 1970s ready for replacement in thenear future. This is likely to push thecost of parking upwards.

Parking cost is an integral part of cartravel and cannot be separated fromother journey costs, such as operatingcosts and road charges/tolls. In thefollowing table parking cost and roadpricing are therefore considered jointly.

65



66




Policy or change Mechanisms Impacts

Networks and interchanges

New roads and improved road capacity Locations benefiting from theinfrastructure will become morecompetitive, attracting more ofthe market

Reduced journey times forselected journeys

Rail network enhancements Reinforces traditional land use andtravel patterns by connecting peopleand places to established networks

Improves the competitive position ofrail-based travel (which is most importantfor London and major conurbations)

High speed rail including maglev(lxxv) Major conurbations attract moredevelopment and travel

Development of premium interchangenodes: road, rail, bus, underground,tram etc

Priority lane routes for only some roadvehicles - principally buses - but alsoother multi-occupancy vehicles

Public transport becomes relativelymore competitive with car travel

Reduced public transport travel timein many cases leading to more publictransport travel

Light rapid transit (LRT) and light railnetwork development

Creates and develops a premium tierof urban public transport

Locally specific impacts depending onhow services complement the bus andrail networks

Personal rapid transit (PRT) A new urban geography would emergearound these premium networks

A viable system would require manyurban dwellers to change from carownership and use to PRT

Airport expansion Airports as hubs for more transportcovering increasingly shorter distances

Higher market share for air in longdistance travel

New parking capacity More multi-storey and undergroundcar parks

Improved opportunities for car trips,particularly for urban areas

Improved facilities at stops andinterchanges including Park and Ride

Transport hubs increasingly linkedwith economic activities acting asfoci for travel

More multi-modal trips

Improved inter-modal facilitiesfor freight

Develop markets for rail, maritimeand inland waterway freight transport



Town centre streetscape improvements,pedestrianisation, improved towncentre management

Town centres become more attractiveenvironments

More walking and cycling around towncentres with increased demand forpublic transport access to town centres

Home zones, car free areas More attractive residential environmentsand better management of parking

More walking and cycling for short trips

Improved traffic management Better use of space to keep trafficmoving and reduce wasted mileage

Reduced car and bus travel times

Network pricing

Road pricing, tolling and parkingcost management

Create a marketplace for personal andfreight travel with supply and demandmanaged through pricing rather thanqueuing. Significant additional revenuesavailable for transport investment

Some local road pricing and tollingschemes funding new infrastructureand services

Impacts of infrastructure on future transport


Products and servicesWith the well developed infrastructure in the UK, even a very large construction programmewould take some time to change accessibility significantly. The largest short term impactscan therefore be made through price and service changes. The table below summarises someof the main changes in products and services by mode.

67



Policy or change Consequences Impacts on transport

Car travel

Car clubs Generally lower car ownership Increased public transport usagewith car use being restrictedto more optimal car journeys

In-car navigation - static anddynamic(lxxvi)

Systems provide information onretail store locations in additionto route planning

Car travel becomes relativelymore attractive

Roadside and parking driver information Improved resilience of road networkwhen problems arise. Drivers areguided to find the best route toavailable parking

Improved car journey time reliability

Car sharing systems to match journeysand suggest pick up times and points

Work, shopping and leisure site-managed systems to match carsand trips

Lower cost and more competitivecar travel options

Pay-as-you-drive vehicle insurance Lower annual mileage by manycar owners

Increased public transport usagewith car use being restricted tomore optimal car journeys

Driverless vehicles Progressive replacement or partialreplacement of driver functions withincongested areas to maximise capacityand improve safety

Improved car journey times

New electric cars, hybrid powersystems, fuel-cell vehicles, etc

Improved attractiveness of car travelas cleaner options become economic

More car travel

Rescheduling trips 24-hour opening and managementof delivery times to ease congestion

More car travel and reduced journeytimes. Increased freight costs ofnight deliveries

Public transport

New bus services Progressive increase in the rate ofchange of bus routes and servicesto reflect current and new land uses

More bus use

Demand-responsive services Most major trip attractors will expandexisting taxi provision with shared taxisand minibuses

Less car use and expandingflexible transport marketsand range of providers

New rail franchises taking accountof accessibility needs

Rail services which target differentmarkets from practical bus services

More bus travel and increasein average rail trip length

Impacts of product and service changes on transport (continued overleaf)

68



Public transport has been slow to respondto changing lifestyles and requirementsof new development. For example publictransport networks still offer only areduced service to shopping places onSundays, despite the fact that Sundayis increasingly important shopping day.

Providers of smartcards and otherpersonal portable payment media willbecome progressively more important.The problems bringing some rail servicesinto the Oystercard scheme in Londonwill be minor compared with thenegotiations required outside Londonin deregulated bus markets. Smartmedia can also help to transformthe image of public transport intoa desirable consumer product.

Communication between public transportoperators and users may improve asa result of improved communicationtechnology. Text messages can informpassengers about delays or capacityproblems and CCTV will monitor moreoperations, not just at interchangesbut also on vehicle.

Car navigation systems are providedwith software which includes data on thelocations of: the road network, railwaystations, filling stations, accommodation,tourist attractions and other information.This provides marketing opportunitiesfor retailers to advertise and assistwith navigation to their stores.

Policy or change Consequences Impacts on transport

Public transport

Public transport information Portable electronic devices with upto date UK bus and rail timetables

More public transport use

Fare integration Development of multi-operator ticketsin line with consumer demand formore convenient ticketing products

Growth of public transport customerbase (perhaps traded against some lossof income from existing passengers)

Smart-media for fare payment Increasingly, smart media companiescompete to offer the best paymentpackages and tariffs for customers, sothat these companies become the largestcustomers of public transport operators

Substantial increase in publictransport use

Luggage deposit and handling facilitiesat more interchanges

Luggage check-in at public transporthubs with links to home deliveryif required

Growth of public transport attractivenesseven when travelling with bulky items

Security improvements for public transporttravellers with CCTV and helplines

Increased propensity for people to usepublic transport, particularly at night

Increase public transport use

Freight

Efficiency improvements forhome delivery and collectionand delivery points

Substantially increased attractivenessof home delivery

Increase in home delivery and reducedcar travel to shops

Improved tracking of parcels Current journey stage trackingbeing replaced with real timegeographic tracking

Increase in home delivery

Impacts of product and service changes on transport (continued)



69



In principle, local collection anddelivery points could substantiallyreduce costs of home delivery, andcould help to revitalise local centres.Although there are large potentialfinancial and efficiency savings tobe made by operators, these would nothelp with the competitiveness of individualfirms, since the mechanism would needto be available for all couriers in orderto be viable. This emphasises that it iscompetitiveness rather than efficiencythat drives change.

Complementary initiativesStaff, visitor and customer travel plansmanaged and maintained by individualorganisations have the potential to

manage efficient travel solutions atthe level of each of these individualorganisations. By playing a greaterrole in supporting the travel needsof customers, individual retailers cannot only support efficient transportsolutions, but can also improve theirown competitive positions. Travelplans include many possible componentssuch as personalised journey information,guaranteed rides home in an emergency,public transport fares support, andincentives to walk more. Plans canbe highly effective in managing site-specific travel if correctly targetedand implemented but good examplesof retail travel plans are rare(Devine 2005).

Initiative Consequences Impacts on transport

Retail and other business travel plans More attractive shopping experience forcustomers and efficiency saving for staff

Various increases and decreasesin travel patterns by time of day

School, college and hospital travelplans

Managed travel for large trip attractors Increase in public transport, walkingand cycling and reduced costs forstudents, staff and visitors

Product branding Brand loyalty being used to developnew markets

New services and types of service

Tele-working and tele-shopping New options present morelifestyle choices

Generally increased travel dueto new opportunities

Travel awareness campaigns andpersonalised travel planning

People have the support and knowledgeto realise their potential and optimisetheir lifestyles

Various increases and decreasesin travel by each mode

Raising travel horizons Residents consider opportunities towork, shop and learn beyond theirtraditional boundaries

Increased travel, often by publictransport but including car travel

Supply chain management Minimising stockholding and ensuringthe right products are in the right placeat the right time

Reduced transport costs and abortivemovement of goods

Mixed land use development Viable development often dependson a mix of uses and tends to bemore influenced by investor returnthan accessibility for customers

Current development patterns tendto increase demand for car travelrelative to other modes

Carbon rationing/trading perhapsas a subsidiary scheme withina UK or EC trading scheme

Environmental concerns are internalisedwithin commercial decisions

Pressure for less polluting modesof transport and shorter journeys

Impacts of complementary initiatives

70



Therefore, in addition to this rangeof transport initiatives there is anadditional range of measures affectingtravel where the motive and benefitsof developing the initiative are asgreat if not greater in non-transportsectors than within transport. Theseinclude tele-working and productbranding. It is not possible to list allthe complementary initiatives howeverthe table on page 69 summarisessome of the initiatives to illustratethe general approaches.

E-working and e-shopping have seenrapid growth and are opening upnew additional shopping opportunities,resulting in more travel in total.However for supermarket shoppingthere is some substitution of car trips,and with substantial take-up of internetgrocery shopping, it is estimated thata direct substitution of car trips byvan trips could reduce vehicle-kmby 70% for grocery shopping.

By playing a greater role in supporting the travelneeds of customers, individual retailers can notonly support efficient transport solutions, butcan also improve their own competitive positions.



Appendix C: Forecasts

Household forecastsHousehold growth will be greatest in the south where there is already the greatestroad congestion.

71



North East North WestGreat Britain

East Midlands

South West Wales Scotland

West Midlands East London South East

Yorkshire and the Humber

0.9

1.1

1

1.2

1.4

1.3

1.6

1.5

1981 20211991 2001 2006 2011 2016

Hou

seho

ld g

row

th r

elat

ive

to 1

981

(198

1 in

dex=

1)

80

120

140

100

160

180

260

200

220

240

280

1985 202520201995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Inde

x (1

986=

100)

GDP Total distance travelled (person km)Projected range

Forecast household growth

Traffic growthIn the 2004 White Paper the Department for Transport forecast that traffic growthwould be lower than GDP growth. However if aviation is included distance travelledis still increasing as fast as GDP.

Traffic growth forecasts

Source: DCLG

72



Appendix C: Forecasts

Potential impacts of transport investmentAnalysis by Department for Transport (DfT) in 2004 identified the possible rangeof traffic growth based on different infrastructure scenario and economic forecasts.The tables are taken from this analysis. These forecasts are currently being revised,since much lower traffic growth has been observed in the major conurbations thanhad been predicted.

% changeon 2000

All roads Inter-urbantrunk roads

All areas LondonConurbations &

large urbanOtherurban

Other

2010 23 to 29 18 to 26 19 to 26 19 to 24 27 to 33 33 to 40

2015 29 to 38 22 to 34 23 to 34 25 to 31 34 to 43 40 to 51

2025 38 to 53 30 to 50 29 to 46 34 to 45 45 to 59 51 to 69

DfT traffic growth forecasts

% change on 2000 Bus (boardings, England)Rail (passenger kms,

England)

2010 23 to 29 18 to 26

2015 29 to 38 22 to 34

2025 38 to 53 30 to 50

Bus and rail forecasts


Appendix D: Actors in delivering change

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The three main actors in future retailtransport are:• business and markets• Government• informed consumers and travellers

The table below shows how these threesectors can shape transport identifyingthe scale of change that might derivefrom each factor.

Under some categories, market factorsdominate and under others, action bygovernment is needed. Overall, the thirdcategory - better informed travellers -appears to deliver more economic, socialand environmental winners. If governmentsand retailers engage more effectivelywith their voters and customers thenthis may be a more effective way tomeet complementary objectives.

The table shows the mechanismsby which the main actors (people,businesses and Government) willinfluence transport and what theoutcomes will be. For some factorsthere will be different outcomesdepending on which agenda prevailssince different stakeholders start fromdifferent aims. Each stakeholder alsohas potentially conflicting objectives.The analysis has been used to reviewthe different and sometimes competingimpacts. Where all stakeholders havethe same aims and are working together,the outcome is more likely to happenand is more certain. Where there aremajor differences between the outcomesthat Government, people and businessescould deliver, change is more uncertainand the rate of change is likely tobe slower.

Sector

Businesses Government Informed travellers

Management

Main mechanisms Products and competition -transport provision largelydependent on unregulatedcommercial markets

Services and charges – levels ofservice dominated by taxing andregulated charging regimes

PDAs and new networks –greater emphasis on newmodes and products

Leadership Retailers, transportoperators andnetwork providers

Transport and planningauthorities, infrastructure funders

Community leaders, publicattitude change, specialinterest networks

Technology Rapid product developmentbut mismatch betweeneconomic growth andenvironmental limits

Big winners and losers, increasedsharing of technologies, lack oftrust in technology

24 hour ‘always on’ society,‘high automation’

Business models Mergers and partnershipsbetween transport andretail companies

Public private partnershipcompanies

Rapid growth of specialistlogistics companies, expansioninto passenger logistics

Social

Attitudes andbehaviour

Increased customer loyalty High growth of niche markets andbehaviours: e.g. ‘petrolheads’,‘environmentalists’

Wider travel horizons

Social inclusion Gap between havesand have-nots

Society slow to change Less geographically networkedsociety and a society morenetworked by social and interestgroups; urban and rural villages

Actors and impacts on future transport to 2015 (continued overleaf)

74




Sector


Regulation and taxation

Regulation Weak regulationand integration

High levels of regulation Stronger customer protectionfocus to regulation

Taxation More direct taxes Increase in overall transporttaxation

More direct taxes and fall inindirect transport taxationon transport in real terms

Travel demand by 2015

Road Market trends suggest growthof 40%

Review of policy impactssuggests growth of 30%

Behavioural response couldlead to traffic growth of 20%to 50%

Bus 30% fall in patronage by2010 followed by a smallrise in patronage

25% fall in patronageand continuing to fall

Large rise in patronagefuelled by culture changeor decline by 30% ifindustry does not respondto new markets

Rail Capacity constraints increasinglysuppress growth although upby 30%

50% rise in rail travel Capacity constraintssuppress growth

Cycling Increase in leisure cycling andsales of cycles but decline inwork and shopping cycle trips

Cycle trips numbers increasedby 2%

Cycle travel –5% to +5%

Walking 20% increase in walking trips 30% increase in walkingfor local trips

30% increase in walking trips

Freight Increasing costs fromrequirements forovernight delivery

Local distribution companiesto manage deliveries fromtrans-shipment centresto shops

Transport supply in 2015

General Patchy public investment High levels of publicinvestment in networksand services

User-funded investment

Roads New roads restricted toserving development andexpansions in motorwayand trunk road capacity

Investment in town centretraffic management but lowinvestment overall

High levels of investmentassociated with newpayment mechanisms

Actors and impacts on future transport to 2015 (continued)


75



Sector


Transport supply in 2015 (continued)

Parking 20% increase in supplywith parking increasinglymanaged within themarketplace (and retailersbecoming the largest providerof off-street parking)

Supply of 10%, mainly at edge-of-town and out-of-town locations

20% growth at edge-of-townand out-of-town locations

New technology High technologyguided buses

Personal rapid transit trialsfrom major transport hubs

Autonomous swarming(lxxvii)

public transport networksin medium-sized towns

Faster modes Airport and air serviceexpansion with transporthubs/interchanges atairports

High speed rail lines withhubs and interchanges incity centres or new outof town centres

Growth of e-networksand air travel

Information Commercial marketingthrough personalisedtravel plans

Social marketing throughpersonalised travel plans

Membership networks andother trusted sources providingmore transport information

Home delivery Collection and deliverypoints in major townsand rural areas atfreight/postal depots

Collection and delivery pointsin each local communityor street

Collection and delivery pointsin local shops and stores

Paying for transport in 2015

Non-user funding Price of transportincreasingly included inproduct or staff costs

Public funding for networkslinked to political objectives

Trip price more closely relatedto marginal operating costs

Products and tickets Joint marketing of ticketsand services

Partnership agreementsfor products and services

Expansion of independentbrokers to purchase tripsand services

Smart media Single smartcard for parking,public transport and othersmall purchases: 80-100%smartcard holding

Smartcard for accessingpublic services includingpublic transport: 50%-80%

Smart media increasinglyuniversal for small purchasesincluding 100% of publictransport and parking

Road pricing No road pricingoutside London

National mandatory roadpricing scheme implementedin 2020 with pilots in somecities and towns in advance

Voluntary road pricingfrom 2015 as an alternativeto taxation

Actors and impacts on future transport to 2015 (continued)

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Sector


Regional differences

London Significant rise in roadcongestion and costs

Increasing gap between highertransport costs in London andother areas, but also the bestpublic transport networks

Increasingly intelligentsystems with automatedflexible networks

South East of England Growing gap between demandfor travel and network supply,leading to shorter trips forroutine shopping

Increasing imbalance betweentransport supply and demand

Reduced growth in travel

Midlands andNorth West

Large investment in transportnetworks and substantialincreases in travel

Scotland and Wales Growing gap between havesand have-nots

Footprint of major centresgrowing with large increasein travel demand

Actors and impacts on Future Transport to 2015 (continued)


Appendix E: Acknowledgements

The Steering Group• Kate Logan, BCSC• Dr Richard Barkham, Grosvenor• Marcus Kilby (Chair), Lunson Mitchenall • Dr Hayley Myers, University of Surrey

Researchers on parallel projects• Dr Jonathan Reynolds, University

of Oxford• Michael Bach, Independent Consultant• Ralph Ardill, The Brand Experience

Consultancy

Many other people also providedunpublished reports and data,discussed issues with members of theresearch team, or attended a workshopto assist with scenario development.Their inputs were much appreciated.We would like to thank the followingpeople in particular:

• Grant Allan, Commission for Integrated Transport

• Jamie Allsop, The Future Foundation• Jillian Anable, Robert Gordon University• Peter Browne, Worcestershire

County Council• Sally Cairns, Transport Research

Laboratory• Edward Chorlton, Devon County Council• Jeremy Collins, John Lewis plc• Caroline Gye, J Sainsbury plc• Robert Huxford, County Surveyor’s

Society• Malcolm Jay, Department for Transport• David Leibling, RAC Foundation• Alan McKinnon, Heriot Watt University• Barbara Noble, Department for Transport• Graham Parkhurst, University

of the West of England• Steven Salmon, Confederation

of Passenger Transport• John Siraut, Colin Buchanan

and Partners• Jeff Welsby, Warwickshire

County Council

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The research team is grateful to the many people who offered advice and supportto the project. Particular thanks are due to other members of the Future of RetailProperty research team who provided comments and evidence to support this report.

Section 3(i) such as such as the transportinnovation fund, kick-start fundingand the sustainable distribution fundadministered by DfT. The 2004 DfTFuture of Transport White Paper showsthat spending after 2007 depends partlyon road charging revenue levered throughthe transport innovation fund.

(ii) Public attitudes to funding of publicservices and infrastructure are subjectto many uncertainties. The principleof greater direct charging could startto become more accepted for otherservices such as health and water supply.Alternatively there could be a publicrebellion against the concept of directcharging if policy developments in othersectors face difficulties, e.g. if peoplewere to perceive that the increasing useof water meters between 2006 and 2010is associated with massive increases inthe cost of water for householders.

(iii) The DfT road pricing review identifieda number of possible technologies for roadpricing. The technology envisaged hereon this timescale would be secure GPSmetering in cars. Car owners would beable to purchase tamper-proof boxes atabout £50. Cars fitted with these blackboxes would be exempt from car tax orwould be able to claim rebates on fueltax. Smartcard users would be requiredto maintain a positive balance by toppingup pre-pay media at filling stations, cashmachines and probably supermarkets.The black boxes would monitor time ofday and location of journey and woulddeduct costs based on an appropriatetariff. The location and journey patternsof users will be the property of thecar owner and would only be accessedby public authorities at the owner’srequest, e.g. if there was doubt aboutthe correct operation of the chargingmechanism. At any time, users could usethe linked satellite navigation systems toseek suggestions of alternative routes ortimes of day to minimise journey cost.

(iv) The impacts are known to besubstantial from evidence at tolledlocations but until there is empiricalevidence from implementation theactual impacts are uncertain.

(v) There have been many attemptsaround the world to establish fair andefficient pricing regimes for transport(see AA 1998 – Attitudes to Road Pricing).The basic principle is that travellersshould pay at least the full marginalcost of their journey. Marginal socialand environmental costs for any journeycan be very different from average costs,and the more these differences can bedefined, the stronger becomes the casefor travellers to be priced rather thantaxed (e.g. fuel duty).

(vi) particularly if favourable reports startto emerge on the benefits of the nationalroad pricing scheme in the Netherlandswhich could be implemented by then.

(vii) The point at which road pricingmakes good political sense will dependon significant changes in public opinion.Poor timing in promoting policies willultimately delay their introduction –no matter how good the policies are(see Clinton 2004 – My Life).

(viii) Glaister and Graham 2006 - RoadPricing in Great Britain: Winnersand Losers. Independent TransportCommission, Rees Jeffreys Road Fund,the Joseph Rowntree Foundation andthe Esmee Fairbairn Foundation.

(ix) There is a vast volume of researchon energy markets, with substantiallydifferent analysis of trends andforecasts (sources include: The EnergyInstitute London, World Energy CouncilInternational Energy Agency, OECD,www.energyinsights.net, Hirsch 2005 -Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts,Mitigation and Risk Management). Long-term growth in oil consumption hasbeen about 1.8% per year (1990-2000).

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Appendix F: References and notes


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The emerging economies of China, India,and other large-population industrialisingcountries (e.g. Turkey, Brazil, Iran), willput pressure on oil demand growth rateswhich will probably continue to be at orabove this long term trend rate. Dependingon oil price rises, and certainly withprice levels of up to the current $60/barrel, world economic growth ratesare more likely to grow than to shrink.Higher oil prices, up to at least the$80/barrel range, will almost certainlyincrease oil demand growth ratesthrough the macroeconomic impactsof higher oil and energy prices at theglobal level. World oil demand growthmay well attain 2%-2.5% per year atthese prices. There is considerabledisagreement about the size of availableoil reserves and the ability to exploitthese. It is clear however that the oilprice will continue to rise in the shortterm, in order to make more productionviable, and that if demand grows at2.5% per year and production andrefining succeed in meeting this, thenwithin a few decades known oil reserveswill be exhausted. It is likely that atleast some further discoveries will bemade, extending the life of oil supplies,but the rate of discovery will almostcertainly continue to decline as shownfrom the Exxon Mobil analysis below(see Anable 2006).

(x) See AA 1998 – Fair payment fromRoad Users. Professor David Newberryfor the Automobile Association.

(xi) Anable, Lane and Kelay 2006 –Public Attitudes to Climate Changeand Travel Behaviour shows that travelbehaviour change is less attractive tomost people than other responses toclimate change to reduce emissionssuch as new technologies or change inother sectors such as power generation.

(xii) Although public attitudes canchange very rapidly, current taxationand spending on transport appears to

be moving away from direct to indirectmechanisms, with free bus travel forelderly people, lower car tax for many,and removal of bridge tolls. In theshort term it seems likely that taxationchanges will encourage more travel andlonger trips. The potential consequentialeffects of these taxation changes couldalso magnify the effects (e.g. local shopclosures if more elderly people travelfree on the bus to the town rather thanshop in the village).

(xiii) The EU emissions trading schemeproposals currently include only intra-EU air services but discussions areunderway to extend this to all modes.The air services trading scheme wasagreed in December 2005. Implementationcould set quotas, which might impact onUK travel markets, given the relativelyhigh reliance on air travel in the UK(e.g. relative to high speed rail). Furtherlegislative proposals are planned by theend of 2006.

(xiv) Anable et al 2006(xv).

(xv) UK Government ministers (e.g.David Miliband’s lecture to the AuditCommission July in 2006) have recentlyhighlighted the possibility of personalcarbon trading being implemented acrossthe EU. Individuals would be allocatedpersonal carbon allowances includingfor household and travel which theycould buy from households with lessenergy-intensive lifestyles.

(xvi) The Co-op invested £250,000 incarbon offsetting measures in 2005.

(xvii) By 2010 there are likely to beat least 20 million smartcard holders.

(xviii) Fernie, J. and McKinnon, A. 2003.The grocery supply chain in the UK:improving efficiency in the logisticsnetwork, The International Reviewof Retail, Distribution and ConsumerResearch, 13, pp. 161–174.

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(xix) Cost increases to travellers havebeen below the market levels. Therehas been large public investmentin rail networks, which has fuelleddemand which in turn requires morepublic investment to enhance theinfrastructure. At some point furtherincreases in public funding will not bepossible. The same mechanism appliesto buses in London. Partly funded byroad charging revenue, there has beensignificant investment in buses andincreases in demand.

(xx) E.g. Walmart August 2006 newsrelease blaming drop in profits onthe increasing price of fuel.

(xxi) Concessionary travel schemesencourage different travel patterns.The recent introduction of free schemesfor people aged over 60 in Scotland,and Wales, and the planned schemefor England from 2008, could encourageolder people to travel further to theshops, reducing the attractivenessof local shops relative to moremajor centres.

Section 4(xxii) For example - new performanceimprovement partnerships will lead toinvestment by some local authoritiesin bus priority measures and failingbus operators could be forced out ofbusiness by more rigorous enforcementby the Traffic Commissioner.

(xxiii) See for example the Association ofCommuter Transport www.act-uk.com.

(xxiv) This is subject to the currentgeneration of travel plans deliveringsuccessful travel solutions for staffand customers.

(xxv) Progress in travel plans withinpublic organisations has been muchslower than was envisaged whenthese were promoted in the 1990s.The Government proposed that all

Government departments would havetravel plans by 2000 and all other publicorganisations such as hospitals wouldhave plans by 2001. However, despitethe slow progress in the public sector,progress has been much faster amongstprivate companies as a result of CSR.

(xxvi) CSR programmes are one of themain reasons for companies to developstaff and visitor travel plans (DfT 2000).

(xxvii) Mobility management centres areincreasingly co-ordinating the travelplans of businesses. In the same waythat logistics providers have deliveredefficiency gains in freight markets,these new providers could potentiallymanage much more passenger travel.However, Government support for suchinitiatives has concentrated on assistancewith funding travel plan preparationrather than assistance with theimplementation of the recommendations.

(xxviii) Radio frequency identificationtags (RFID) will make supply chainsmore visible and help to managedelays due to congestion, breakdown,delivery delays and other problems.

(xxix) Analysis of trends in logisticsand freight by McKinnon 2004 suggestsHGV growth of around 10% to 2015and in van traffic of 40% with regionaldistribution centres being increasinglythe focus for trans-shipment betweenvehicle types.

Section 5(xxx) Car club membership has grownfrom around 1000 in 2004 to over20,000 today.

(xxxi) Futuristic stacking cars have beenproposed by the transport team at theMassachusetts Institute of Technology.Production of these city cars is manyyears away but new city cars managedthrough car clubs may provide thebusiness model for their development.

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(xxxii) See for example the schemes inthe Netherlands www.2getthere.nl.

Section 6(xxxiii) Technology Foresight 2006 -Intelligent Transport Futures:Towards 2055.

(xxxiv) Bright M 1993 – Stated andRevealed Preference Surveys ofCross Forth Travel, Scottish Executive.

Section 7(xxxv) Data from ONS, Retail KnowledgeBank and Dawson J 2004. Retail changein Britain during 30 years: The strategicuse of economies of scale and scope.Centre for Study of Retailing in ScotlandResearch Paper 0402.

(xxxvi) Farag et al 2006 - Shopping andits Relationship with In-store Shopping:Empirical Evidence from the Netherlandsand the USA. Transport Reviews, Vol. 26,No. 1, 43–61.

(xxxvii) For example from June 2006,a strategic partnership between Aldisupermarket and low cost air companydba in Germany will be offeringdiscounted flights.

(xxxviii) Warnaby G, Bennison D, DaviesB J and Hughes H (2004) People andpartnerships: marketing urban retailing,International Journal of Retail andDistribution Management, 32(11), 545-556.

(xxxix) McKinnon 2005. New Developmentsin Supply Chain Management.

(xl) Cairns S 2005 - Delivering supermarketshopping: more or less traffic. TransportReviews, 25(1), 51-84.

(xli) Smaller households are associatedwith increased numbers of cars per headof population but there are increasingproblems with residential parking inurban areas (RACF 2050 - Parking inTransport Policy. RAC Foundation).

(xlii) For attractive shopping trips,an ageing population will requireconvenient, comfortable and securepublic transport options recognisingthat mobility declines with age.This may help to underpin growthin local shopping trips and facilities,particularly where these are associatedwith pleasant walking environments.

(xliii) Patterns of work and childcareneeds to work within increasinglyrestricted time budgets (Lyons et al2000 – Transport and Society).

(xliv) There are growing segments ofthe population which are time-richand cash-rich.

(xlv) Healthcare is becoming anincreasingly economic choice (Davies2006 – What role does accessibilityplay in the delivery of health services,Landor Publications) as the costs ofpotential treatments increasinglyoutstrip affordability.

(xlvi) Education is moving away from‘factories for children’ to environmentsthat support individual learning. Togetherwith the enabling power of technologythis is fostering greater individualityand independence.

(xlvii) Unlocking community capacityis increasingly developing new socialeconomies. (See for example Sears2005 – The experience in Ealing, CTA).

(xlviii) Employment patterns are changingfrom ‘a job for life’ to ‘a life of jobs’.Working practices are changing toaccommodate individual preferenceson location, working till later in life,and requirements for 24 hour staffing.

(xlix) The population of the UK is expectedto grow by 2.3 million by 2016 from 60.3million in 2006 to 63.8 million in 2021(DCLG 2006 - Household and PopulationProjections - Regional Trends 38). Most

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of this growth will occur in England, andin particular in the regions of greaterLondon, the east and the southwest,where growth of around 10% is forecast.This part of the country already has thehighest stress levels within road and railnetworks, and there has been a growinggap between transport provision andland use development plans (HighwaysAgency 2005).

(l) The main uncertainties affectingthe scale and rate of adoption of newtechnology have been identified in(Technology Foresight 2006 - IntelligentTransport Futures: Towards 2055). Theseare: growing skills shortage, increasingmigration (and emigration), clashes ofmulticultural values (faith vs secular,for example), growing awareness ofthe importance of ‘employee liveability’,increasing importance of the knowledgeeconomy, ageing yet more activepopulation, reaction to increasing time-intensity, growth in ‘cyberfraud’,emergence of better physical and virtualmanagement systems, satellite locationdevices, smart antennas increasing useof ‘telepresence’, technology convergingrevolutions in biotech/nanotech/infotechand cognitive science, culture of control,‘real time’ everywhere, growing debateon housing density in inner cities, growthof Asian economies, a growing globalenergy deficit (increased demand andconsumption), emergence of radicalsolutions to climate change, decliningtrust in institutions, growing crisis inhigher education putting the sciencebase under threat, decline in powerof national governments, increasingworld trade, emergence of networkedorganisations, clusters and supplychains, new decision-making frameworks,proliferation of choice, the rise of pan-regional hubs, the end of affluence,increasing emphasis on sustainabledesign, rise of ‘zero waste’ movement,changing patterns of demand for housingin some areas, e-commerce growth,increasing focus on tourism and its

contribution to climate change,decoupling of tourism and transport,rising tension between freedom ofinformation and privacy, emergenceof megacities, changing family andhousehold structures, the riseof ‘slow’, growing utilisation of‘embedded’ technology, continuedgrowth of an ‘always on’ culture, semi-autonomous/autonomous vehiclesbecoming safer and more efficient,grids and networks create sharedcapacity, behaviour of ‘digital natives’ –growing up accustomed to technology,reducing cost of ICT and enhanceddata processing, higher-speed railtravel, impacts of a growing gapbetween rich and poor, continuedcapital underinvestment, the impactof climate change, increasingly localised/decentralised energyproduction, spend on energy researchand development, consumer desire forsocial and environmental responsibilityand transparency, the growth of thesurveillance society, vulnerability of just-in-time models to external shocks,demand management of transportprovision, changing data storage (fromdesktop to network), a movement awayfrom office-based working, an emergingdebate around provision of ‘citizen’sincome’, the rising importance of localprovision, taxation increasingly basedon resource consumption rather thanincome, a move towards full-costaccounting, emerging infrastructure,emerging cultural form.

(li) Whilst some cultural factors,particularly the protection of privacy,will have a constraining effect on therate of change, an increasing proportionof the population will have grownup accustomed to technology, andthe ’always on’ society will connectpeople and retailers in progressivelydifferent ways.

(lii) Technology Foresight 2006 IntelligentInfrastructure Futures – Project Overview.

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(liii) Despite ’digital inclusion’ measuresto assist deprived groups with theinvestment and training to be ableto use new technology.

(liv) People and markets operate withinnarrower boundaries than sustainabledevelopment. In the absence of marketsfor all economic, environmental andsocial needs, public policies securesustainable approaches through regulation,taxation, funding and publicity.

(lv) Future Foundation 2006. Understandingthe consumer of the future - nVisionresearch in 14 European Countries.

(lvi) CB Hillier Parker and Cardiff Universitypublication - A policy evaluation ofthe effectiveness of PPG6. Retail policyimpacts directly and indirectly on markets.PPG6 resulted in an important seachange in the way that retailers anddevelopers thought about retail planningwith an acceptance of regulatorypractices and attempts to developretail innovations within this framework.

(lvii) Guy 2003. Is retail planning policyeffective. The case of very large storedevelopment in the UK. InternationalJournal of Retail and DistributionManagement, 24(6), 3-10.

(lviii) Barker 2006 – Review of the PlanningSystem. Of particular importance totransport will be the review of theextent to which the planning system isnow sufficiently ‘joined-up’ with otherrelated aspects of government policy.In particular, it is considering whetherRegional Economic Strategies aredelivering a clear economic frameworkto help inform Regional Spatial Strategiesincluding the Regional Transport Strategies.

(lix) Significant changes in public attitudesand behaviour would be needed tosupport changes towards more managedapproaches with the planning systemplaying a more central role. Support

for these policies would depend ongreater public funding to complementthe planning policies. Delivery of thesemore interventionist policies would alsolead to big winners and losers in theretail sector, which would be supportedand opposed in equal measure. Thiswould make a politically stable approachhard to achieve. Action would also beneeded to build community ownershipof local services. In recent years therole of local government has changedsubstantially from being largely providersof defined services to champions of localcommunity needs. In most parts of thecountry community planning structureshave been established, but the crossoverto delivery has been weak. Communityplanning tends to reinforce local deliveryand has included initiatives such as:regeneration of local centres, supportfor farmers’ markets and communityfood schemes, joint commissioning oftransport services by public agencies,employability initiatives and supportfor excluded population groups. Evenif more interventionist planning policieswere delivered, the targeted reductionsin travel would be relatively small.Informed and increasingly mobiletravellers will use the shopping facilitieswhich best fit their needs, even if theshopping is done from home. People takeadvantage of the choices available andmake different choices on different days– see for example Goodwin 1998. Solvingcongestion. University College London.

(lx) DHC 2003. City Region BoundariesStudy, Scottish Executive Cities Review.

Section 8(lxi) Although the transport sector initself accounts for only about 10% ofGDP (UK National Accounts – The BlueBook 2006), Government expenditureand exports include significant transportcosts so the total value is in excessof 15%. Household expenditure ontransport accounts for 15% of totalhousehold expenditure.

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(lxii) The Transport Planning SkillsInitiative: progress and achievements,April 2002-November 2003. TransportPlanning Society.

(lxiii) Analysis shows that in order todeliver a low cost business model,increased investment was made byMatalan and Primark in logistics.This research was reported in FutureRetail Business Models, part of BCSC’sFuture of Retail Property series, 2007.

(lxiv) Independent Transport Commission,Tomorrow’s Transport 2001 and Halden2005, Delivering Transport throughAccessibility Planning. Cairns et al2005, Smarter Choices. Departmentfor Transport.

(lxv) i.e. a new business lifestyle tariffmight be a logical extension of themany travel and retail options offeredon current bank accounts e.g. RoyaltiesGold from RBS.

Section 9(lxvi) BCSC 2005, The Good TransportGuide Update.

Appendix A(lxvii) Noble and Potter 1998 - TravelPatterns and Journey Purposes. TransportTrends. Government Statistical Service.

(lxviii) At 2004/05 prices.

(lxix) Total family expenditure inmetropolitan and urban areas is 15-25%lower than for London and rural areas.

(lxx) DHC 2003 – Barriers to UsingPublic Transport, National TravelwiseConference, Cardiff.

(lxxi) TAS 2004 - Competition in theUK Passenger Transport Industry,Commission for Integrated Transport.

(lxxii) To plan transport systems, timeand cost are combined within theconcept of generalised cost. It isassumed that the maximum benefitto the public interest comes fromthe minimisation of generalised cost(i.e. keeping cost as low as possibleand reducing the journey time.)

(lxxiii) In any case, as car ownershipgrows, public transport operators needto compete and co-operate with theprivate car. Such co-operation is alreadywidespread since local rail services arelargely accessed by car interceptingjourneys into major urban centres.

Appendix B(lxxiv) See for example DfT 2004 – TheFuture of Transport. Scottish Executive2004 – Scotland’s Transport Future.

(lxxv) Some of the highest speed servicesuse magnetic levitation technology.

(lxxvi) Two main types of car navigationsystems have been developed – staticand dynamic. The static systems assumethat network conditions are uncongested,and the dynamic systems are updatedregularly based on monitoring of speedson the network. A mass market hasemerged for static systems over thelast five years but attractive pricingstructures have not yet emerged formass market dynamic systems.

Appendix D(lxxvii) See discussion of new modes.

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