Towards a Restoration of the Humanities in the Future University: Asia's Opportunity
Future of opportunity
32
The information contained in this document is confidential, for internal use only and may not be distributed outside the Standard Bank Group. AgriSeta Awards 2010 Future of opportunity
description
The fonts, font sizes, colours & styles have been set according to the guidelines laid down by the Marketing Division. Please do not change any of the above. Future of opportunity. AgriSeta Awards 2010. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Transcript of Future of opportunity
The information contained in this document is confidential, for internal use only and may not be distributed outside the Standard Bank Group.
AgriSeta Awards 2010
Future of opportunity
AGENDA
Where does the sector find itself?
The information contained in this document is confidential, for internal use only and may not be distributed outside the Standard Bank Group.
• Macro economic environment o Global o Domestic
• Agricultural economic environment
• The consumer and future trendso BFAPo Other global trends
Recession costs
Crisis not costless and recovery not certain?
The information contained in this document is confidential, for internal use only and may not be distributed outside the Standard Bank Group.
Global Economy
IMF forecasts
Economic activity on the mend
The information contained in this document is confidential, for internal use only and may not be distributed outside the Standard Bank Group.
Global Economy
Recovery profile of advanced economies
How long will it take the SA economy to close the “output gap”
The information contained in this document is confidential, for internal use only and may not be distributed outside the Standard Bank Group.
AustraliaNew Zealand
UKCanadaSweden
NetherlandsNorway
SwitzerlandUS
GermanyFrance
Euro-zoneItaly
JapanSpain
Trough quarter Return to trend Output Gap closed2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Present
Global Economy
Still experiencing a hangover?
• Recent recession somewhere between downswings of ’81 and ‘96.
• Surprisingly strong GDP growth in Q1 probably not sustainable.
• Do not expect double dip• BUT growth could be
relatively slow.
......deviation in GDP relative to trend last 3 downswings
The information contained in this document is confidential, for internal use only and may not be distributed outside the Standard Bank Group.
Domestic Economy
Not creating jobs fast enough
Jobless growth
The information contained in this document is confidential, for internal use only and may not be distributed outside the Standard Bank Group.
Domestic Economy
Household debt
How long will deleveraging of consumers take
The information contained in this document is confidential, for internal use only and may not be distributed outside the Standard Bank Group.
Domestic Economy
Household deleveraging
Can take up to 5 years??
The information contained in this document is confidential, for internal use only and may not be distributed outside the Standard Bank Group.
Domestic Economy
Agric in a squeeze
Agriculture’s terms of trade is at it’s lowest levels in more than a decade
The information contained in this document is confidential, for internal use only and may not be distributed outside the Standard Bank Group.
0.80
0.90
1.00
1.10
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Inde
x
Terms of trade (PPI/Farm Requisite Index) Long term Average
Agriculture
Gross Income Earned
The information contained in this document is confidential, for internal use only and may not be distributed outside the Standard Bank Group.
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Source: DoA, 2010Field crops Horticulture Animal products
Agriculture
Gross Income Earned
Field crops
The information contained in this document is confidential, for internal use only and may not be distributed outside the Standard Bank Group.
Agriculture
Source: DoA, 2010
Gross Income Earned
Livestock
The information contained in this document is confidential, for internal use only and may not be distributed outside the Standard Bank Group.
Agriculture
10
20
30
40
50
60
2000
/01
2001
/02
2002
/03
2003
/04
2004
/05
2005
/06
2006
/07
2007
/08
2008
/09
2009
/10
R 'b
illio
n
Gross income trend in major livestock industries.
Cattle and calves slaughtered MilkEggs Poultry MeatTOTAL ANIMAL PRODUCTS
Source: DoA, 2010
Gross Income Earned
Horticulture
The information contained in this document is confidential, for internal use only and may not be distributed outside the Standard Bank Group.
Agriculture
Source: DoA, 2010
Food consumption forecast in SA
The information contained in this document is confidential, for internal use only and may not be distributed outside the Standard Bank Group.
Source: BMI, SA Food and Drink Report
Agriculture
What does the SA consumer look like?
The information contained in this document is confidential, for internal use only and may not be distributed outside the Standard Bank Group.
Source: BFAP, Agricultural Outlook 2010
The SAARF LSM Segments: Proportion of SA adult population and average monthly household income in 2009 Source: SAARF (2010a)
Consumer Trends
The SA consumer – class mobility
The information contained in this document is confidential, for internal use only and may not be distributed outside the Standard Bank Group.
Source: BFAP, Agricultural Outlook 2010
LSM class mobility: All adults during the period 2004 to 2008Source: SAARF AMPS data for the period 2004 to 2009
Consumer Trends
Global Perspective
The information contained in this document is confidential, for internal use only and may not be distributed outside the Standard Bank Group.
Source: BFAP, Agricultural Outlook 2010
“successful food products usually rely on ‘double-positioning strategies’, where food products are designed to address at least two (or more) consumer food trends”
Global trends:• Health/ Wellbeing• Indulgence• Ethical and environmental concerns• Simplicity• Convenience
Trend- “Pattern of gradual change in a condition, output or process, or average or general tendency of a series of data points to move in a certain direction over time, represented by a line or a curve on a graph.”
Consumer Trends
Future trends......
• BRAND FABRIC
The information contained in this document is confidential, for internal use only and may not be distributed outside the Standard Bank Group.
Source: Consumer Watch 2010 and 2011
Global Trends
Future trends......
• BRAND FABRIC• INNOVATION INSANITY - Invent, improve, copy…or perish.
The information contained in this document is confidential, for internal use only and may not be distributed outside the Standard Bank Group.
Source: Consumer Watch 2010 and 2011
Global Trends
Future trends......
• INNOVATION INSANITY - Invent, improve, copy…or perish.
Wine vendor donates clean water
The information contained in this document is confidential, for internal use only and may not be distributed outside the Standard Bank Group.
Source: Consumer Watch 2010 and 2011
Global Trends
Future trends......
• INNOVATION INSANITY - Invent, improve, copy…or perish.
In Japan Kit Kat releases 9 regional favourites
The information contained in this document is confidential, for internal use only and may not be distributed outside the Standard Bank Group.
Source: Consumer Watch 2010 and 2011
Global Trends
Future trends......
• INNOVATION INSANITY - Invent, improve, copy…or perish.
Organic soups delivered weekly by bicycles
The information contained in this document is confidential, for internal use only and may not be distributed outside the Standard Bank Group.
Source: Consumer Watch 2010 and 2011
Global Trends
Future trends......
• INNOVATION INSANITY - Invent, improve, copy…or perish.
British retailer issues bonds with returns paid in chocolate
The information contained in this document is confidential, for internal use only and may not be distributed outside the Standard Bank Group.
Source: Consumer Watch 2010 and 2011
Global Trends
Future trends......
• BRAND FABRIC• INNOVATION INSANITY - Invent, improve, copy…or perish.• URBANY
The information contained in this document is confidential, for internal use only and may not be distributed outside the Standard Bank Group.
Source: Consumer Watch 2010 and 2011
Global Trends
Future trends......
• URBANY
The information contained in this document is confidential, for internal use only and may not be distributed outside the Standard Bank Group.
Source: Consumer Watch 2010 and 2011
Global Trends
Future trends
• BRAND FABRIC• INNOVATION INSANITY - Invent, improve, copy…or perish.• URBANY• ECO EASY
The information contained in this document is confidential, for internal use only and may not be distributed outside the Standard Bank Group.
Source: Consumer Watch 2010 and 2011
Global Trends
Future trends......
• ECO EASY
The information contained in this document is confidential, for internal use only and may not be distributed outside the Standard Bank Group.
Source: Consumer Watch 2010 and 2011
Global Trends
Future trends......
• BRAND FABRIC• INNOVATION INSANITY - Invent, improve, copy…or perish.• URBANY• ECO EASY• TRACKING AND ALERTING
The information contained in this document is confidential, for internal use only and may not be distributed outside the Standard Bank Group.
Source: Consumer Watch 2010 and 2011
Global Trends
What would the crystal ball hold for Agriculture over the medium term?
• More partnerships/ JV’s and linkages throughout the value chain
• Food prices will probably increase
• Consolidation to continue
• Global demand and supply transitions
• Shift in traditional marketing strategies
• Energy opportunity
• Water challenge
The information contained in this document is confidential, for internal use only and may not be distributed outside the Standard Bank Group.
Global Trends
Medium term Forecasts – Standard Bank Group Economics
2006 a 2007 a 2008 a 2009 a 2010 f 2011 f 2012 f 2013 fGrowth data GDP (% y/y) 5.6 5.5 3.7 -1.8 2.7 3.1 3.5 4.0Inflation data Headline CPI1 (% y/y) annual average 4.6 7.1 11.5 7.1 4.4 4.8 5.7 5.3PPI (% y/y) annual average 7.6 10.9 14.2 0.2 6.7 6.9 7.1 7.0Prime rates Prime (year-end) 12.5 14.5 15.0 10.5 9.5 10.0 11.5 12.0Prime (average) 11.2 13.1 15.1 11.8 10.0 9.6 11.4 12.0Exchange rates $/R (average) 6.8 7.1 8.2 8.4 7.6 7.8 8.1 8.2£/R (average) 12.5 14.1 15.1 13.1 11.5 12.2 13.0 13.5R/¥ (average) 17.3 16.8 12.5 11.3 11.6 11.1 11.1 11.3€/R (average) 8.5 9.7 12.0 11.7 9.7 10.0 10.9 11.4
Source: Standard Bank Group Economics South Africa, Macroeconomic perspectives, 6 September 2010
