Future of Mining - key trends - keynote by Patrick Dixon for Rio Tinto
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• Body Level One • Body Level Two • Body Level Three • Body Level Four • Body Level Five Dr Patrick Dixon Chairman Global Change Ltd Take Hold of the Future
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Future of Mining Industry, commodities, steel, iron ore, precious metals. Futurist keynote speaker Patrick Dixon for Rio Tinto.
Transcript of Future of Mining - key trends - keynote by Patrick Dixon for Rio Tinto
• Body Level One
• Body Level Two
• Body Level Three
• Body Level Four
• Body Level Five
Dr Patrick Dixon Chairman Global Change Ltd
Take Hold of the Future
do things you really believe in Life is Short
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Who cares about the new strategy?
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All leadership comes from VISION of a be?er future
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One word will dominate ALL
FUTURE !!
The future is aboutEMOTION
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Strategies often overtaken by events
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World can change faster than you can hold a board meeting
WGP 1980-‐2013 (%,constant prices)
US GDP 1980-‐2013 (%,constant prices)
EU GDP 1980-‐2013 (%,constant prices)
Vietnam GDP 1985-‐2011
>40% WDP in Asia by 2015� IMF -‐ adjusted for Purchasing Power Parity �50% populaVon in India under 25 years old
$3.4 trillion !
Buy mines and mining rights
$2.4 trillion !
Reserves
Growth of Middle Class in Africa 250m people - $2 trillion by 2040
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300 million move to cities in China (66% of all seabourne trade in iron ore)
475 million to cities in Africa by 2030 !
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Europe Dying !
4 couples to produce single great-grand child !
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STEM
Most STEM graduates in emerging markets
China and India dominate
STEM degrees including post-‐graduate / PhDs
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•Pigs teeth grown inside rats •Mice grow new teeth from nerve cells / gum
Grow New Teeth
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• After 20 years - 80% alive v 50% on normal calories • Less cancer, diabetes, heart disease, strokes, brain decay
Monkeys on diet live longer
Slow or no ageing is a reality in animals Japan women gain 15 minutes of life expectancy every hour
• Rockfish, Turtles, some Whales
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• No signs of getting old
1 trillion pages a month !
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People love Cities and Offices
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Teleworking Only 2.5% of US workers are exclusively home-based 60% UK office workers have opportunity to work from home regularly - but few take it (during office hours)
Diversity in workplace leads to
diversity in marketplace
85% of leaders of largest US corporaVons say diversity is key to innovaVon
Forbes study
How many militants to shut down oil producVon?
Tribal Gas / Energy
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Scale - Innovation Speed
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Eat or be Eaten
How commodity wealth can strangle economiesUN study: exchange rate rises so other business uncompetitive, military spending rises, corruption rises, instability rises
Nearshoring Boom
11% wage inflaVon in China in 2013 and 2014
e-‐commerce hits $1.5 trillion 2014 12% all UK retail
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MOBILE Mobile influenced $29bn of retail sales in UK in 2013
50% of all UK online sales are using mobile
Internet of Things
90% all global data generated in last 2 years
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Sales of canned food in Mexico store = demand for more steel tins in China
Big Data
Future of Household Appliances and
RoboVcs ?
• Rio Tinto driverless trucks - 130 million tons of material
• 2.3m kms, >57 trips around the equator.
$40 Trillion Green Tech Boom driven by oil price, cost cuts, green activism
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“EU emissions of CO2 equivalent to a carpet of
CO2 = 28cmsthick each year over enVre land mass”
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Shale gas 33% US supplies
3.3m US jobs $468bn pa + more oil
produced than Saudi by 2020 !
200 years global supply Up from 60 years in 5 years
5 coal plants replace with gas = 9000 megawa>s wind !
57 closed in US in 2012-‐14 Cheaper coal means more coal will be burnt in Asia
120,000 terawatts of sunlight /day7,000 times total power use
Solar cell generation parity
120,000 terawatts of sunlight /day 7,000 times total global power use Power Moscow from Libyan Desert
Why China will dominate wind power industry “40% EU power = wind by 2050”
Surplus wind to hydrogen - to methane ?
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•10% capacity used 4 days a year in Australia •Average $50 à peak $10,000 per MWhr
Managing Peak Power
Germany Power Surplus
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• In June 2013 electricity prices became negaVve -‐EU150 / MWhr
• Future for next-generation Super-Grids
Nuclear energy -‐ expect global growth….�Challenge to achieve carbon reduction AND cut nuclear �Wild card = dirty terror bomb or another meltdown �Mining uranium in future from sea water using today’s technology
�30 million acres lost !
�EU 5% gasoline and diesel from food
25% of 2010 US grain fuel
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40% US corn burnt in vehicles Using 100% US corn would only drive 25% of vehicle miles
!85 Biofuel impact on food prices
do things you really believe in Life is Short
image can be “dirty, dangerous, destructive, corrupt” commodity extraction creates many ethical challenges
Ethical Mining
Social Contract
Teams in top half of Engagement � 86% more likely to have better customer metrics � 70% more likely to have low staff turnover � 70% more likely to be highly productive � 44% more likely to be profitable
• Gallup meta-survey > 10 million people
Lesson from Non-‐Profits and AcVvists !
Connect with all the passions people have and they will follow you to the
ends of the earth, promote what you do with pride, and may even be willing to
work for you for next to nothing !
…. and the four word phrase is ….
!
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Building a Be?er World
The Magic of every great Business
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Dr Patrick Dixon Chairman Global Change Ltd
globalchange.com 15 million visitors
5 million video views
