Future of Media Interfaces

Future of Media Interfaces

Kevin Kearney ([email protected])

Karen McGrane ([email protected])

Changing Media Landscape

Evolving User Behaviors

Disruptive Technologies

Interaction Design Challenges

Prototyping Activity

What is Media?

3

Providing consumers with a leisure

activity that they find pleasurable...

so that advertisers can reach them

and sell them goods and services...

and both the advertiser and the

publisher make a profit.

4

Content + Distribution + Advertising

Media = Means of Distribution

5

Newspapers

6

Declining Newspaper Readership

7

80%

70%

60%

30%

40%

50%

1970 1980 1990 2000Source: Newspaper Association of America

http://www.mediainfocenter.org/compare/penetration/

77.6%

66.9%62.4%

55.1%

Weekday readers as a percentage of the U.S. adult population

8

Newspaper Advertising

Source: http://www.edelman.com/speak_up/blog/archives/2005/11/is_public_relat.html

$1 of print advertising revenue is replaced by only 33 cents online

9

Magazines

Source: ASME's Top 40 Magazine Covers of the Last 40 Years

http://www.magazine.org/Editorial/Top_40_Covers/

10

Television

Declining Broadcast TV Viewership

11

60%

50%

40%

10%

20%

30%

M*A*S*H 1983

Cheers1993

Seinfeld1998

American Idol2003

Source: Nielsen Media Research, http://www.nielsenmedia.com/

http://www.tvhistory.tv/ALL-TIME_TOP_Shows_50-00.JPG

60.2

45.541.3

20.3

Ratings are an estimate of the size of the TV audience, in percent

0%

Music

12Source: The Recording Industry Association of America's Top-Selling Albums of All Time

http://www.infoplease.com/ipea/A0151020.html

The Death of the Blockbuster Album

13

25

20

15

0

5

10

1966 – 70

1971–75

1976 –80

1981–85

Top 100 Selling Albums, by Year, in Millions

Source: http://www.thelongtail.com/the_long_tail/2006/01/the_decade_the_.html

1986 –90

1991–95

1996 –00

2001–05

More Time Online = Less Time for...

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+ 20%

+10%

0%

– 30%

– 20%

– 10%

Radio Magazines Newspaper Television Internet

Source: The User Revolution, Piper Jaffray & Co., February 2007

Source: Arbitron/Edison Media Research Internet and Multimedia 2006: On-Demand Media Explodes and comScore Networks.

19% 30% 30% 33%

15%

1966NewspapersBroadcast TVMagazinesBroadcast RadioVinyl/8-Track

Consumers Have More Choices

15

1986NewspapersMagazinesCable TVBroadcast TVRadioCassette TapesWalkmanVCRPersonal ComputerConsole Video GamesPC Video Games

2006NewspapersMagazinesEmailBroadcast TVRadioCD PlayerCable TVPersonal ComputerSatellite TVInternetMobile PhoneDVD PlayeriPod/MP3 PlayerSatellite RadioTIVO/DVRSlingboxBlogsOnline VideoPodcastsSocial Media Mobile Internet/VideoConsole Video GamesPC Video GamesMMORPG GamesCasual/Mobile GamesText /Instant MessagingDownloaded Movies/TV

The User Revolution, Piper Jaffray & Co., February 2007

16

Users Are Source-Agnostic

Internet ad spending

17Source: Television Advertising Bureau, Nielsen Media Research, Advertising Age, and Piper Jaffray & Co. estimates

As a percentage of total media consumption and advertising

Other Media Other Media

Internet Internet

21%7%

79% 93%

“Half the money I spend

on advertising is wasted;

the trouble is I don't know

which half.”

18

Targeted Advertising

19Source: http://www.rickmathieson.com/articles/0802-minorityreport.html

TM and (C) 2002 Twentieth Century Fox and Dreamworks L.L.C. All rights reserved

Minority Report depicts an advertising-saturated society where billboards call

out to passersby on a first-name basis, newspapers deliver news instantly over

a broadband wireless network, and biometrics-enabled marketing

applications turn a visit to the local mall into a personalized experience.

Interactivity

21

Time-Shifting and Place-Shifting

22

23http://www.thelongtail.com/

The Long Tail

User-Generated Content

24

Sharing

25

Recommendations and Filtering

26

27

Social Currency

Changing Media LandscapeEvolving User BehaviorsDisruptive Technologies2-foot view

10-foot view

1-foot view

Success Factors

Interaction Design ChallengesPrototyping Activity

2-Foot View

Napster

30http://www.cnn.com/SPECIALS/2001/napster/

iTunes

31http://www.apple.com/itunes/

32

MySpace & Facebook

Virtual Worlds

33

Second LifeThe Sims

CyWorldHabbo Hotel

YouTube

34

35

Video On Demand

Bittorrent

36

10-Foot View

Control of the Living Room

38Source: Forrester Research, Over The Top: The Path To Internet-Delivered TV, January 2007

Tivo

39

Microsoft Media Center

40

Slingbox

41

Network Streaming

42

Joost

43

Front Row/Apple TV

44

45

Wii

1-Foot View

Remote Control

47

Mobile Devices

48

Blackberry

49

iPod

50

Phones that play music

51

Mobile Orb & Sling Player

52

Success Factors

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Convergence

DRM

55

Touchscreens

56

Jeff Han, Multi-touch

Apple iPhone

Microsoft Surface

Battery life

57

In 2004 and 2005, Apple, Dell

and Hewlett Packard

collectively recalled more

than 300,000 laptop batteries

"due to fire hazards."

The Internet is Everywhere

58

The Internet

Data Storage

Computer Mobile Handset Television

Timeline of Adoption (and Adaptation!)

1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005

Punch Cards

Research

Personal Use

Command Line

Direct Manipulation

Hypertext

Mobility

Interaction design = talking to machines

61

ENIAC, 1943 Ivan Sutherland & Sketchpad, 1963

Douglas Englebart & Mouse, 1964 MITS Altair 8800, 1975

Big Challenge for Interaction Design

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cognitive

physical

cognitive+

pleasure

Challenges

63

Physical Interfaces + Visual Displays

Interactions

Affordances

64

Navigating

Finding

Filtering

65

Not Altruistic

Monetize Assets

Advertising

66

Activity Groups1. Pretend the world considers shipping paper on trucks to be

wrong. Prototype an experience for viewing content from

newspapers and magazines on a 1-foot interface.

2. Pretend music is free. Prototype a social experience for finding

new music across the 1-foot, 2-foot, and 10-foot views.

3. Pretend all devices can talk to each other through the internet.

Prototype an experience where your 1-foot device is the remote

control for the 10-foot experience.

4. Pretend all the movie theaters and video rental stores are

closed. Prototype an experience for a movie download service

on the 10-foot display.

5. Pretend all cars have screens and can talk to the internet.

Prototype an experience for families to access their digital

media on the road.68

Considerations

1. What behaviors do you expect people

to exhibit in using this?

2. What is the unmet need that this is

addressing?

3. How will this be better than what people

already have?

4. What’s the social context in which people

will use this?

5. How might this make money?

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Prototyping Activity Instructions

70

1. Groups of 4-5 persons

2. 20 minutes for brainstorming and

prototyping

3. Appoint someone to present back to the

group

4. 5 minute presentations

5. Show something interesting

Future of Media Interfaces

Economy & Finance

Transcript of Future of Media Interfaces