Future of Intelligent Transportation

Keith Golden

OC CIO Roundtable

August 14th 2014

Note: views expressed herein are mine alone and may not represent my employer

Today’s Presentation

A brief look into the future of intelligent transportation

Outside our usual IT-centric approach

But open-ended as always…

Key Traffic Mgmt Milestones

1868 – Manually operated intersection signals

1914 – First red/green electric signal

1921—First red/yellow/green signal

1922 – First electromechanical intersection controllers (timers)

1950 – Widespread use of pressure plates for vehicle detection

1960s – First large-scale traffic management systems (city-wide, mainframe)

1974 – First microprocessor-based intersection controller

1970s – Widespread use of inductive loops for vehicle detection

1980s – First PC-based traffic management system

1990s – Widespread use of cameras for vehicle detection

Consider the Humble Intersection…

Intersection Signal Infrastructure

Traffic & Ped Signals

Vehicle Detection (cameras, inductive loops)

Controller & Cabinet

Network Connection

Traffic Management System/Traffic Control Center

How Does Signal Coordination Work Today?

Platooning, “Green Bands”, Optimization

Northbound & Southbound Demo

Demos from: http://www.tmr.qld.gov.au/Travel-and-transport/Road-and-traffic-info/Traffic-Signals-Information.aspx

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Intersection FAQs

How long are yellow and red clearance intervals set?

Yellow Light: 3 -6 seconds – higher speeds, more time

All Red: 0.5 to 3 seconds – higher speeds, less time

How does emergency vehicle preemption work?

Can flashing my high beams change a traffic light?

Can a traffic signal go “all green” like in the movies?

Conflict Monitors

Sidebar – Mobile & Web Traffic Reporting

Where does traffic data originate?

Crowdsourced Phone Data

GPS location

Calculated speed

Historical Data

Individual User Reports (Waze)

Road Sensors (DOTs, cities)

The Future…

The Future, Now

Motivation

Vehicle Assist

Connected Vehicle Vehicle to Vehicle (V2V) Vehicle to Infrastructure (V2I)

Autonomous Vehicles

Motivation

NHTSA reports that some 33,000 people are killed and 2.3 million injured on American roads each year

We are moving from an era of engineering for collision survival to one of engineering for collision avoidance

Vehicle Assist/Advanced Driver Assistance(Features & Functions Available Now)

GPS Navigation

Adaptive Cruise Control

Lane Departure Warning System

Collision Prep System/Collision Avoidance System/Automatic Braking

Automatic parking

Blind spot detection

Night Vision

Driver drowsiness detection

Many others…

Automatic Braking example (IIHS):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=ih2qTiqBhdA

Vehicle to Vehicle (V2V) V2V is a rapidly moving “connected vehicle” effort

V2V communications will use short-range 5.9 GHz band with vehicles within 300 meters (802.11p)

Position & Speed data 10 times/second

Vehicular Ad-Hoc Networks (VANETs)

All cars sold in US to include V2V capability by 2017

Initially “driver assist” focus—i.e., informational messaging

Favorable incremental cost structure – build out via small “tax” on each new car sold

Primary Uses

Safety/Accident Prevention

Vehicle Routing/Traffic Optimization

Tracking???

V2V Overview:

http://www.voanews.com/content/vehicles-may-soon-be-talking-to-each-other-/1886895.html

Vehicle to Infrastructure (V2I)

More ambitious of the “connected vehicle” efforts

May also utilize V2V 5.9 Ghz radios

Draft comm tech specs have been circulated

Significant incremental cost structure – requires significant governmental spending

Opens door to a wide range of possibilities over long term

Safety/Accident Prevention

Wide area traffic routing

Traffic flow/road usage optimization

Vastly improved fuel utilization

Speed monitoring

Crime interdiction

Will it ultimately become impossible to “go off the grid” by car?

V2I Example:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ykYRQIQSy2M

V2V

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Autonomous Vehicles Autonomy Defined

Level 0: Driver has complete control.

Level 1: Some vehicle controls are automated, i.e., automatic braking

Level 2: 2 or more controls automated simultaneously

Level 3: The driver can give up control at certain times

Level 4: The driver is not expected to control the vehicle at any time

Predictions are sanguine

GM, Mercedes, Audi, Nissan, BMW and Renault plan to market level 3 vehicles by 2020 – Nissan now backing away, btw.

Mercedes and Ford expect generally-available level 4 vehicles by 2025

IHS Automotive believes most passenger cars will be level 4 vehicles by 2035

Though real obstacles remain

Legal/Ethical – Brave new world of legal & ethical issues—how to choose? “Ethical Crashing Algorithms”

Technological – Significant technological hurdles remain, current predictions appear optimistic

Final Word “It’s hard to convey to the public how hard this is” – Dr. John Leonard, MIT

http://www.technologyreview.com/news/529466/urban-jungle-a-tough-challenge-for-googles-autonomous-cars/

Google Driverless Car Example:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CqSDWoAhvLU

Outro Sidebar—What should the driverless car do when facing a “police officer” in the roadway?

Q & A