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Transcript of Future of Insurance Industry - life insurance, future of pensions, savings and fund management -...
Dr Patrick Dixon Chairman Global Change Ltd
Insurance TrendsFuture World, Future Opportunities
Fellow, Centre for Management Development, London Business School
Text
do things you really believe indoing the right thing
Life is Short
Why I believe in insurance
Poor image with customers and graduates
�Marke&ng: We are here to protect you and family, to pay out generously and quickly if something happens to you, giving you peace of mind at a fair price.
�Investors: We make shareholders as much wealth as we can without breaking laws. We raise premiums as o@en as we can, and pay out as liAle as possible to finance dividends.
6 words spell F U T U R E F astU rbanT ribalU niversalR adicalE thical
ALL BIG RISKS ARE RELATED
ReputaGon -‐ Events -‐ Focus -‐ Service
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AGILEleaders have more than one strategy and learn rapidly from each other
WGP 1980-‐2013 (%,constant prices)
Diversity to seizeglobal markets
EU GDP 1980-‐2013 (%,constant prices)
Vietnam GDP 1985-‐2011
>40% WDP by 2015
� IMF - adjusted for Purchasing Power Parity
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RISKbenchmarking over same investment
cliff as everyone else
•
£ 375bn
$2.3 trillion US + $85bn per month
$3.4 trillion
Reserves
The future is about
EMOTION
80% lost in seconds
aggregators winwith only one form
Most call-‐centresslow, blind and
deaf(single screen -‐ no social media)
300 million move to cities in China and475 million to cities in Africa by 2030
Personal Financial Services in Asia
$300bn growth expected: 2011-‐ 2020
China / Brazil32% retail insurance growth pa
Europe Dying 4 couples to produce single great-grand child
Hyper-competive + regulation
75% of all US and UK wealth owned by those over 65 -‐ mostly women
Falling Family Size link means
Insurance• Average family size in developing naCons fell from 6 to 3 children from 1950 to 2000
• Bangladesh family size halved in 20 years • In Iran fell from 7 in 1984 to 1.9 by 2006 • In S Korea fell from 6 to <3 in 25 years• PopulaCon falls to replacement levels at $4000 -‐ $10,000 a year
Can we stop ageing ?
• Adenovirus
• Infected mouse hair cells
• Permanent colour change
Permanent Hair Colour
Treatment which restores and maintains the youthful elasticity of
hardened arteries – and helps wrinkled skin. Global sales?
Low blood pressure and total body lift
Alteon
• Pigs teeth grown inside rats
• Mice grow new teeth from nerve cells / gum tissue
Grow New Teeth
Repair of heart or brain damage following coronary / stroke
using adult stem cells
Repair Heart / Brain
• Harvard Bioscience
• Bioreactor
• Bone marrow stem cells
• Polymer scaffold
Print New Skin (Lexmar)
Build Nanotech Robots
• Adenovirus contains Math1 gene• Turns young ear cells into hair cells• Inject virus particles into inner ear
• New hair cells grow near Organ of Corti
• Research in Guinea Pigs
Cure for Deafness ? better
Confidential
HSV1 causes cold sores. When engineered as Seprehvir (HSV-‐1716), it is harmless to healthy &ssue.
• Oncolytic viruses• Infect and kill cancer tumour cells • No damage to healthy tissue• Evidence of impact in clinical trials• Able to deliver new genes into cancer cells• Micro-dose chemo, micro-dose radiotherapy
Viruses to cure cancer ?
Monkeys on diet live longer• After 20 years - 80% alive v 50% on normal calories
• Less cancer, diabetes, heart disease, strokes, brain decay
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Worn out Mitochondria – Energy Boost
R-alpha-lipoic acidAcetyl-L-carnitine
Slow or no ageing is a reality in animalsJapan women gain 15 minutes of life expectancy every
• Rockfish, Turtles, some Whales
• No signs of getting old
lPeople like to belonglSense of idenCtylCommunity lFamilylInsurance oTen personal
Happy to Belong
700,000 agents: relaGonship
Reasonspeoplechoosenon-lifeinsurers
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Huge Opportunity: customer experience
1 trillionpages a month
"Perfection!, Wonderful hotel. Good value, beautiful views.“
Madrid May 20, 2013
This was the most beautiful hotel. Clean, friendly and good value.
“Worst hotel I have ever been in. Should be closed down.“
Paris April 11, 2013
NEVER stay in this terrible place. Rats, insects, dirty. Many guests got sick.
74 million users a month
SCALE + FOCUSSurvival issues: country
region / specialty / channel / technology / underwriGng / e-‐sales
e-‐commerce hit $1 trillion in 2012 e-‐marketer
Italy: 58% increase in aggregator sales of policies in first 6
months of 2013 v 2012
56% all private motor insurance salesGrowth 1-‐2% pa -‐ reaching saturaGon
30% of consumers select cheapest policy Further 58% select policy in top five cheapest
ObjecGve measure of brand value
UK Aggregators Threat
Weakness of all Aggregators
33% in UK don’t watch live TV
> 200 million mobile payments > $160bn
• Kenya -‐ 17m customers• $9bn pa -‐ >33% GDP
•
1.7bn users unbanked
Mobile“On-time, anyhow, anywhere”
Reduce customer support costsBoost cross-sell / up-sell (works well)Easier policy changes and renewals
Policy alerts / progress on claimsIntegrated product offersFusion with social media
1500% growth car insurance black boxes
Telematics Scale
90% all global data generated in last 2 years
Big DataSales, underwriGng, fraud
Big Data means shift from
Marketing to Advice
• Home• Work• Online• Offline• Sales• Entertain• Phone• Mobile• Chat• Social web
ONECUSTOMER
• 90% Microsoh R&D
CLOUD
5.5 billion cyberajacks42% increase / year
>160Gbps in denial of service1000 major ajacks / hr in UK
Worries about US Prism / security services
$40 Trillion Green Tech Boom driven by oil price, cost cuts, green activism
Shale gas 33% US supplies
3.3m US jobs$468bn pa + more oil
produced than Saudi by 2020
200 years global supplyUp from 60 years in 5 years
120,000 terawatts of sunlight /day7,000 times total global power usePower Moscow from Libyan Desert
“40% EU power = wind by 2050”Surplus wind to hydrogen -‐ to methane ?
120,000 terawatts of sunlight /day7,000 times total power use
QUEBEC from ARIZONAMOSCOW from SAHARA
Solar cell generaCon for same price
Only 5% EU power crosses borders
Enough salt caverns to power germany for a week
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Only sell what you believe inand would sell to your family
and friends
The only corporate value worth having
Truth about Retail Funds�Next miss-selling scandal? Expect regulation++�65-75% of actively managed funds fail to beat trackers - huge hidden charges
�Most fund managers are reluctant to invest own money in own retail funds and do not recommend to their friends
“Trust and Transparency...We aim to delight our customers with our service to them and ensure that they have every reason to renew their policy every year.” Doing the Right Thing.
Big hidden penalties for loyal customers will be seen as unethical
• Individuals• Families• Teams• Shareholders•Communi&es•Wide World
CreaGng a Bejer World
Bejer value, customer service, underwriGng, risk management, cost control and profitability
Dr Patrick Dixon Chairman Global Change Ltd
globalchange.com5 MILLION VIDEO VIEWS