Future of Health & Wellbeing- Key trends and business opportunities
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Transcript of Future of Health & Wellbeing- Key trends and business opportunities
Future of Health & Wellbeing Key trends and business opportunities Danilo Mazzara Trento, April 10 2014
2
Key trends and business opportunities
I. Global trends in the Healthcare
II. Digital Health convergence
III. Key opportunities for new venture
IV. Summary
Global Trends in the healthcare industry
Agenda
3
Key trends and business opportunities
Innovation in the Healthcare Industry highly impacted our quality of life, over the last 50 years we have gained 12 years more and by 2050 4,3% of total population will have more than 80 years
Life expectancy at birth total years (OECD Countries)
80,0
67,9
1960
17,8%
Today
World
1,4
1,5
3,7
4,8
2,1
6,8
1,6
6,4
7,2
7,4
11,4
4,3
14,5
16,7
2050 2011
Population over 80 years on total population (World and selected Countries in %)
Source: Elaboration on OECD data, 2014
Global trends in the Healthcare
4
Key trends and business opportunities
Although we live more, Chronic Diseases prevalence have been rising in all countries (industrialized, middle income, low income), surpassing infections as a disease burden among adults
Chronic disease, refers to disease lasting three months or longer
Can be prevented trough an healthy "life style"
In USA an Europe , from 70% to 80% of total healthcare cost are related to chronic diseases management
Global trends in the Healthcare
11% 10%
9% 6%5%6%
5%
Lung cancers
Ischemic heart Desease
Stroke
Lower Respiratory infections
COPD
Diarrhoea desease
4%
HIV/AIDS
Diabet mellitus
Road Ingiury
Prematury
2011
28
24%
21%
11%
5% 5%
4% 4%
27
2000
21%
20%
13%
4% 4%
The 10 leading causes of death in the world (distribution by causes)
Chronic Diseases
Chronic Disease on the top10 leading death causes
46% 49%
Source: Elaboration on World Health Organization, 2014
5
Key trends and business opportunities
4 BLN $ market since the first launch in 1998
Global dysfunction erectile market (%)
Worldwide Aesthetic Market (in billions of dollars)
K
K
Source: Allergan Annual Report, 2013
Source: Elaboration based on Evaluate Pharma and Med Tech
Cataracts is responsible of 50% of global blindness
World cataracts procedures (mln)
Alzheimer's disease or other dementias (mln on people global)
Source: Elaboration on World Health Organization, 2014
Source: The Global Impact of Dementia, Alzheimer Disease International 2013
Live longer also means incurring in new aging related diseases and in addition to that, people expect a better quality of life in their "silver stage"
5,0
3,22,3
+10%
2017 2012 2009
135,0
76,0
44,0
+3%
2050 2030 2010
32,0
20,0
+5%
2020 2010
510
40
45100
Others Levitra Cialis Viagra Total
Global trends in the Healthcare
6
Key trends and business opportunities
Illustrated trends, generate a dramatic increase of the global healthcare expense with deep pressures on public budget which absorbs around 60% of the whole cost
+17,9%
2011
9,2%
1995
7,8%
7,8%
13,6%
6,8%
9,1%
17,9%
9,3%
42%26%
54%
20%
Pubblic
Private
Jap
100
80%
USA
100
46%
EU
100
74%
World
100
58%
Total expenditure on health on GDP (World and selected region)
Healthcare per Payors (Government vs Private expenditure)
Global trends in the Healthcare
Source: Elaboration on World Health Organization, 2014
7
Key trends and business opportunities
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
9.000 4.500 4.000 3.500 3.000 1.000 500 0
USA UK
Turkey
Russia
Nigeria
Mexico
Japan Italy
Indonesia
India
Germany France
China
Canada
Brazil
In addition to overall healthcare cost increase is necessary to balance difference needs across the world, affordability in mature markets and the accessibility in the emerging ones
1.100
70
Health per capita cost (ppp in $)
Life
exp
ect
ancy
at
bir
th t
ota
l ye
ars
Affordable in mature market
Access the emerging markets
Frugal innovation
Country Population – 80 mln€
Global trends in the Healthcare
Source: Elaboration on World Health Organization, 2014
Life expectancy and Health per capita expenses per Country
8
Key trends and business opportunities
To deal with current challenges, leading Life Sciences players have been redefined their strategic priorities, focusing on new growth opportunities and increasing operating model efficiency
1. Shifting global
markets
New Markets - BRIC
New price points
New Supply chain models
2. Changing
Product Portfolios
3. Customer
Engagement
Revolution
4. Changing
cost base
Replace LOE Products
Rise of Ultra-specialty products based on biotech (e.g. orphan drugs
Rise of generics/ biosimilars
New services (e.g. Care Management)
New Customers
New Technologies
Multichannel engagement
SG&A challenges
Investment timelines
R&D Productivity
Strategic Priorities Selected Example
Global trends in the Healthcare
NON EXHAUSTIVE
9
Key trends and business opportunities
I. Global trends in the Healthcare
II. Digital Health convergence
III. Key opportunities for new venture
IV. Summary
Agenda
Agenda
10
Key trends and business opportunities
Every business is a technology business, "SMAC" technologies are driving the change and they are available to everyone anytime and everywhere
Share of digital companies on….
Note 1. Source: Inter-Brands Source: Accenture Elaborations on market data, 2013
88% 84%77%
… Most Valuable Brands
100
23%
… Market Capitalization
100
16%
… Fortune 100
100
12%
Technology Example (selected)
Digital Health convergence
1
The rising of Digital Economy
11
Key trends and business opportunities
New technology waves are coming with significant grow in the mid-term
85,3
23,7
+29%
2018 2013
European App Economy1 (bln$)
3-D printing market2
(Printer sales, materials and associated services, bln$)
Source: Gigaom Research, Sizing the EU app economy 2014 Nota 2. CNBC on Canalys data, April 2014
16,2
2,5
2013 2018
+45%
Digital Health convergence
SELECETD EXAMPLE The rising of Digital Economy-new waves
Source: CNBC on Canalys data, April 2014
12
Key trends and business opportunities
Sequenced human genome cost
Digital Health is the next wave of industry convergence as shown by a number of initiatives both from Tech and Life Sciences players
Today
1.000 $
2000
3 Bln$
Time for sequencing
10 Years 3 days
Life Sciences Players' Initiatives
Tech Players' Initiatives Google reportedly investing hundreds of millions into its new life extension company, Calico
Apple iWatch will be mainly about health monitoring
The Breakthrough Prize in Life Sciences is founded by A. Levinson, S. Brin, A. Wojcicki, M. Zuckerberg and P. Chan, and Y. Milner to recognize excellence in research aimed at curing intractable diseases and extending human life
Merck Emerges As Top Funder Of Digital Health Start-Ups
GE Healthcare … $2 billion investment over 5 years …. in software and analytics to better help our customers manage the operational complexity of the healthcare systems
Johnson & Johnson (J&J) has launched the Digital Health Masterclass (DHM) programme to help drive growth in the next generation of digital health businesses
SELECTED EXAMPLE
Digital Health convergence
ource: Accenture Elaborations on market data, 2013
13
Key trends and business opportunities
Connected Health is the end state vision enabling the whole healthcare ecosystem to collaborate to improve efficiency and effectiveness
Information and data sharing across several healthcare players
Access trough multiple channels (e.g. Electronic Health Records, Mobile Health,…)
Boost compliance to the treatment to reduce related costs
Increase efficiency and effectiveness of the healthcare outcomes
Connected Health Model
Key priorities
Digital Health convergence
Connected Health vision and key priorities
14
Key trends and business opportunities
Google Glass in the operating room
Brain control
There are several examples of new technologies both in consumer and specialized healthcare
Wearable devise
Digital Health convergence
Groupon
25% coupon related to health and well being
SELECTION
15
Key trends and business opportunities
Customers have moved online
…are more connected & interactive…
…are in control of more information…
…and are increasingly mobile…
Customers (People, Patients and Physicians) are ready for the digital revolution
Health is the #1 Search topic
60% say it influenced a treatment
decision
76bn Searches a month
>50% say online information impacts
their prescription
Physicians spend 8hrs/wk online (<
2.5 hrs with reps)
96% of Physicians use the web for
health, medical and prescription information
…Of which > 300 mln in China
alone (inc by 33% year on year)
68% of US physicians join
physician-only social networks
>1bn Social Media users
worldwide…
>80% of doctors have smart phones
800m mobile Internet users
Mobile web to exceed fixed access
by 2014
>20.000 health-related iPhone apps
>60% of doctors actively use apps
Digital Health convergence
Source: Accenture Elaborations on market data
16
Key trends and business opportunities
Digital Healthcare is reshaping the whole "Patient Experience", they can share their experiences and access to more than 20K apps trough mobile
Digital Health convergence
Prevention
Information
Diagnosis
Treatment
Recovery (Relapse)
Patient journey Key Functionalities
Focus on factors associated with overall wellness: Healthy eating, Weight management Fitness,…
Locate physician or healthcare facility
Rate and review physicians Appointment reminders
Reference for common symptoms Diagnosis based on data
inputted/question answered Communication with Professionals
Order medications from the phone
Medication reminder supporting compliance
Emergency and first aid information
Condition management information
Selected Leading Example
Source: IMS Institute, Patient Apps for Improved Healthcare, October 2013
17
Key trends and business opportunities
I. Global trends in the Healthcare
II. Digital Health convergence
III. Key opportunities for new venture
IV. Summary
Agenda
Agenda
18
Key trends and business opportunities
Innovation is a key priority in the Healthcare, Start Up can have a key roles in driving the change as shown by the huge investment by VC
"I have a dream" attitude
Patient first but then Payers
From "Product" to "Services"
Think global but act local
Be credible and take your time
9,2%
X 2,7
VC Invesment**
25,0%
Global Market Cap*
10,6%
GDP
Share of Healthcare sector on …. Key success factors for a Start-Up
1
2
3
5
4
Key opportunities for new venture
Source: Accenture Elaborations on market data * Based on Global Standard and Poor's ** Based on USA and Europe (NVCA, EVCA)
19
Key trends and business opportunities
Leading breakthrough innovation in the Healthcare comes from true life experiences, people had the passion to solve "unmet needs"
Global Orphan drugs market (mln $)
127,0
83,0
28,0
2012 2004
2018
+11%
From 6,6% to 15.9% of total prescription business
"I have a dream" attitude 1
Leverage your network to find the stimulations and good idea
Partner with Healthcare Professionals to add technology on top of clinics
Build a true story around your solution
Invatec (leading Italian med tech)
Acquired by Medtronic for 350 mln $ in 2010
"Recognized for developing novel devices …. in collaboration with physicians"
Key opportunities for new venture
Source: Elaboration based on Evaluate Pharma and Med Tech and Company Press Release
20
Key trends and business opportunities
Healthcare affordability is the top priority, new treatment need to show both clinical and economic benefits
Provide strong fact to show incremental benefit compare to existing treatment
Consider the whole indirect cost related to disease management (eg. care gIver)
Be able to deal with multiple stakeholders (Clinical and Buyers)
Innovative pricing scheme based on value sharing
Patient first then Payers 2
Key opportunities for new venture
Between 2008 and 2011, 17 out of the EU’s 28 member states have slashed their public spending on healthcare due to austerity policies
Hospital Solutions, a new business focused on developing novel partnerships with hospitals to provide services directly related to hospital operational efficiency. September 2, 2013
Same trends can be observed in USA and Emerging Markets (eg. India recent cuts by 10% the 2014–15 the government)
EU Member with public healthcare budget cut (100=28)
61%
29%
Source: Company Press Release
21
Key trends and business opportunities
Customer ask for services, market niches where flexible and fast companies can easily differentiates from established players
Don't replace Healthcare Professionals but partner with them to provide a better patient experience
Find with new concept to address emerging issues: • Pharmacy of the Future • Patient Mobility • Gender • Migrants • Compliance
From "Product" to "Services" 3
Key opportunities for new venture
-50 -45 -40 -35 -30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0
5
Adherence support
Lifestyle coaching and training Nurse support via phone
Access to clinical trials
Physician referrals
Access to patient support forums
Measurement tracking and alert Financial assistance
Product information
Rewards program
0
20
15
10
65
60
55
35
30
25
In-home nurse support
Patient received (%, Reversed Axis)
Pat
ien
ts w
ants
Patient demand for services vs. Services already delivered by Pharma Co.1
Note1. Accenture and Coleman Parkes Research, online survey of 2.000 respondents in the US between September and October, 2013
Launch of a New Business Focused on Comprehensive, Evidence-Based Weight Management Interventions in the U.S. December 20, 2013
22
Key trends and business opportunities
Healthcare is a global market but strictly regulated at Country and Regional levels, key partnerships are needed to accelerate route to market
Market Authorization Regulation Authority Price control Pharmacy Chain Advertising for RX Payer
AIFA AIFA Yes No No Public
BFARM IQWIG No No No Statutory Health Funds
NICE NICE No Yes No Public
FDA FDA No Yes Yes Ins./ Public
Regulatory specifics across Country in Prescription drugs (Selection)
EMA Licensing and strategic alliances with global players to reach more complex market
Multichannel distribution which includes Direct sales and Distributor
Communication and promotion mix to deal with multiple stakeholders
4 Think global but act local
Key opportunities for new venture
Source: Accenture Elaborations on market data
23
Key trends and business opportunities
Long time and big investment are needed to be in the market, plan your efforts consistently, find the right skills mix and look for sustainable partners
Time for approval Medical Device (USA vs EU in months)
Cost new drugs (median RD cost/new drugs in bln $)
5,3
1,8
0,4
1 2-3 > 3
7,0
31,0
11,0
54,0
EU USA EU USA
510K/CE Mark PMA/CE Mark
5 Be credible and take your time
Key opportunities for new venture
4) Launch 3) Pre
Launch
12
Elapsed (months)
24 -30 6-12 3-6
Key milestones
• Therapies effectiveness in the animal • Prototype
• Therapies effectiveness in human • Supply chain
validation
• CE Registration • FDA approval
•Operating model released
2) Clinical Trial and supply chain in
planning
1) Pre-clinical
5 mln € investment needed before launch
Real example on med tech start up
# drugs per company Source: Elaboration based on Forbes, 2013
Source: USA National venture capital Association (NVCA)
24
Key trends and business opportunities
I. Global trends in the Healthcare
II. Digital Health convergence
III. Key opportunities for new venture
IV. Summary
Agenda
25
Key trends and business opportunities
Summary
Summary
1. Big and growing Market
2. Needs and for improvement
3. Technology as key enable to succeed
VC Invesment**
X 2,7
25,0%
Global Market Cap*
10,6%
GDP
9,2%
Share of Healthcare sector on ….
Source: Accenture Elaborations on market data * Based on Global Standard and Poor's ** Based on USA and Europe Venture Association
Thank you ! [email protected] Danilo Mazzara