Emer. Prof. John M Bryden Norwegian Agricultural Economics Research Institute &
Future of food - Insights from Discussions Building on an initial perspective by Prof. Wayne...
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Transcript of Future of food - Insights from Discussions Building on an initial perspective by Prof. Wayne...
The Future of Food Insights from Discussions Building on an Ini4al Perspec4ve by: Professor Wayne Bryden | University of Queensland
Context The ini4al perspec4ve on the Future of Food kicked off the
Future Agenda 2.0 global discussions taking place through 2015. This summary builds on the ini4al view and is updated as we progress.
Ini4al Perspec4ves Q4 2014
Global Discussions Q1/2 2015
Insight Synthesis Q3 2015
Sharing Output Q4 2015
Increasing Compe77on for Grains Changes in popula4on and cuisine have led to a tremendous rise in the
demand for animal-‐source protein. The compe44on between livestock and humans for grains and other high quality plant foods is a major challenge.
More Efficient Produc7on Food will need to be produced more efficiently. Increased produc4vity must come from a reduced land area and resource base. We will need to be less
dependent on resources that are becoming scarce or more costly.
Second Green Revolu7on Another Green Revolu4on is required but today’s revolu4on must be different to overcome environmental, financial and societal constraints. It is no longer possible to use unlimited water and chemical inputs to increase produc4on.
Investment in Innova7on There has been a global decline in agricultural R&D in the past four decades. There is now an urgent need to redouble the agricultural research effort. The new food producing system has to be science-‐based with low resource input.
Sustainable Consump7on Part of the solu4on is the development of consump4on pa[erns that meet requirements in a safe, nutri4ous and affordable manner. In developed
countries this will mean learning to eat sustainably with less reliance on meat.
Maintaining Global Food Security Over the next decade maintaining global food security will become
much more difficult as the popula4on increases. We must double food produc4on in a sustainable manner.
Reinven7ng Diets Our rela4onship with food must change. We will need to reinvent our diets to meet our nutri4onal requirements for op4mal health and in so doing consume fewer calories and less meat: We must be prepared to pay realis4c prices.
Educated Consumers To improve both health and waste we see mul4ple campaigns, both global
and local -‐ at school and in the home – that help consumers be[er understand labelling, the benefits of home cooking and balanced diets.
Nutri7onally Balanced Foods Increasing demand for more affordable, nutri4ous food leads to be[er understanding of the links between food, physiology and health -‐ and a revisi4ng of the past when food was more func4onal and less aesthe4c.
Fair Compensa7on Fairer prices for farmers, food producers and consumers are driven by the elimina4on of subsidies, the introduc4on of sustainability accoun4ng into the corporate P&L and increased transparency and traceability of supply.
Food Safety Led by WHO and other mul4na4onal partnerships, a gradual shi` towards
more harmonised and global food standards and interna4onal regula4ons has to first overcome food poli4cs and significant na4onal self-‐interests.
Processed Foods More, but healthier, ready-‐prepared and ready-‐to-‐eat foods are adopted in key regions where ‘wet’ markets currently predominate: In some countries the benefits of frozen foods over fresh are championed by governments.
Higher Yields With a focus on soil rejuvena4on, be[er educa4on of farmers and more widespread use of animal feeds, medium-‐sized Asian farms use proven technologies to more than triple output per acre and per litre of water.
Feeding the BoHom of the Pyramid Achieving and maintaining lower prices and more efficient large scale
distribu4on to and within ci4es is a social priority. Balancing this with higher safety standards and food service costs is however a challenge for some.
Reducing Food Waste Postharvest losses of foods in developing countries can amount to 30-‐50% of produc4on. In developed countries a similar propor4on is wasted: Minimising this loss, that could feed 3 billion people, is driven by be[er data collec4on.
Investment in Innova7on The urgent need to redouble the agricultural research effort and overcome recent declines drives us towards a new food producing system is science-‐based, with low resource input and a wider poreolio of consumed plants.
Targeted Health Foods More customised foods, blur the line between pharmaceu4cals and food as neutragenomics allow individualised diets to fit gene4c profiles
Gene7c Cocktails The ability to match ingredients to personal health traits drives the expansion of bespoke drinks designed to deliver func4onal
as well as flavour benefits to the individual.
Almost Zero Waste Escala4ng waste produc4on and new ahtudes, approaches, regula4on and business models lead many to aim for an almost zero waste society
Natural Plus The growing affluent consumers increasingly look for natural
op4ons in many areas of life and consump4on -‐ across food, cosme4cs, household goods and clothing.
Mobile Snacking With over 35% of breakfasts already consumed in the car, the US con4nues to lead the way in mobile foods, with near
constant snacking replacing structured meals.
ThoughMul Consump7on The essence of markets, of produc4on and of buying habits are all influenced by a growing awareness of global and local issues which help individuals and
organisa4ons to be[er form consump4on decisions accordingly.
Food as Currency The West’s insa4able demand for constant variety and abundance is puhng undue pressure on the food industry to deliver more -‐ thus crea4ng a spiral of rising demand. As this increases food may become its own currency.
Food for Thought Growing awareness of the ‘whole food system’ and open discourse on the role of food in society, leads to a return to tradi4onal food sharing rituals and a rediscovery of the importance of food to social cohesion and well-‐being.
Peak Obesity Growing consumer demands for transparency and healthy op4ons, along with declining fast-‐food and so`-‐drink sales in some markets, indicate the turning of a corner on certain food-‐related health issues such as childhood obesity.
Food Resource Op7misa7on New technologies in the food system, from data-‐driven seasonal and market forecas4ng, to robo4cs and bio/gen-‐tech, lead to greater resilience to shocks
(e.g. drought), lower costs and bigger and be[er quality yields.
Empowering Local with Global Alongside consolida4on of large food corpora4ons, we see hyper-‐local
diversi4es in food produc4on and supply chains -‐ driven by global networks that enable local-‐to-‐local sharing of informa4on, resources, and technologies.
Holis7c Food Planning The food system will increasingly be understood in rela4on to wider resource management (water, energy etc.), bringing together mul4ple stakeholders
with mul4ple goals, especially within local landscapes / catchments.
Food Investment Boom? Greater incen4ves and opportuni4es for both public and private investors will arise from technological developments and innova4ons in food produc4on,
and the emergence of 'high-‐risk, high-‐return' projects such as C4 rice.
Enabling Food Reuse Faced with moun4ng regula4on to prevent food reuse, consumers,
restaurants and retailers lobby for changes in prac4ce and support peer-‐to-‐peer plaeorms that match excess supply with demand and ensure delivery.
Importers to Exporters Be[er data management, farmer educa4on and gene4cs combine to enable more food to be produced from the same land. Previous net food-‐impor4ng
na4ons become self-‐sufficient and some become net exporters.
Less Pes7cides Improved bio-‐fer4lisers, be[er bio-‐control and a changing global perspec4ve on, and hence regional ahtudes to, GMO all combine to help improve yield -‐
while reducing environmental impact of mass food produc4on.
Blue Food The opportunity from aqua4c foods -‐ both fish and plants – is developed.
Posi4ve consumer percep4ons and rising efficiencies outweigh cost, pollu4on and transport challenges to deliver higher growth than land-‐based foods
Water as an Issue Greater awareness of water access, scarcity and control, alongside visibility on the true value of water, all drive wider recogni4on of the challenge. But, in some regions, the absence of a major crisis delays poli4cal and social ac4on.
Urban Farming Driven by city food-‐security targets and innova4ve produc4on systems, urban farming plays an increasingly significant role in many regions: reclaiming waste ground and reducing supply chain complexity.
Credit Access Timely access to credit enables farmers to purchase fer5liser and other
inputs to improve yields and making it easier to obtain loans -‐ resul5ng in a reduced need to rely on high-‐cost lenders
Leveraging the Cloud More cloud-‐based solu5ons deliver services with higher levels of reliability and scalability. Because many are also customisable, they can be tailored
to fit the unique needs of agribusinesses and so improve efficiency.
Streamlined Processes BeBer access to informa5on helps farmers to raise yields and income.
Improved distribu5on networks increase transporta5on efficiency, improve stock management, reduce cash-‐handling costs and also lower fraud risk.
Peer-‐to-‐peer Marketplaces Timely access to informa5on and beBer transparency on market prices enable farmers to par5cipate in peer-‐to-‐peer marketplaces. They sell
their produce, machinery, equipment and goods directly to buyers via SMS.
Local Foods Increased transparency around food availability and security, land use and economic literacy accelerate greater consump7on
of locally grown and processed foods
Non-‐indigenous Foods Although demand for exo7c ingredients rises, there will be increased
awareness of the environmental consequences of growing non-‐indigenous crops. More informed consumers choose indigenous produce.
Low-‐water Crops With increased water stress and growing demand for food, more drought and/or salt resistant crops are developed and grown.
This is supported by improved water management.
Farm to Market Efficiency With some countries losing over 40% of food in the supply chain, food storage and distribu7on are seen as areas for increased efficiency. Private companies
take greater responsibility, reducing corrup7on: Prices are more stable.