Future of Digital Health Care - keynote speaker for Apax Partners
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Transcript of Future of Digital Health Care - keynote speaker for Apax Partners
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DrPatrickDixonChairmanGlobalChangeLtdFellow,CentreforManagementDevelopment,LondonBusinessSchool
Digital-InspiredHealthCareoftheFuture
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Expectcompe;;onbetweenpharma,biotech,medtechandinfotechinfindinganswerstomajor
condi;ons
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Butmanyofthegreatesthealthinnova;onswillcomefromsynergies
betweenthesedisciplines
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The future is about
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The future is aboutEMOTION
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Agility
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Yet many trends changing more slowly
than people think
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Cash growing - bank branches continue -
music, fashions, food - homes look the same, pharma R&D efficient halves every 9 years
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RealityNHS digital records
Alzheimers / devices
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Demographicswillbegreatestpredictorof
futuredemand
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85% of world population will be living in emerging
markets in 10 years
1% owns 50% wealthAccess to health ?
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1 billion will migrate over next 30 yearsMore spend on infrastructure in 30 years than in all human history
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Europe Dying 4 couples to produce single great-grand child
1 million in Italy over 90 years old by 2026
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Title Text• Body Level One
– Body Level Two
• Body Level Three
– Body Level Four
» Body Level Five
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!23
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>65%spend>65yearsold>1billion>60by2020
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ChronicCondi;ons–Mul;pleNeeds
•80%ofhealthspending•88%ofallprescripFons•70%ofphysicianvisits
AlmostallcausedbypeoplegeOngolder
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Expectmajorglobaldemandforpreven;onandtreatmentforcancer,heart,
brain,chronicwounds,infec;ons,infer;lity,arthri;sanddiabetes
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Manyhealthcostswill
FALL
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PatentExpiryondrugsalesworth$225bn2011-2016
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PharmaCompanies
WILLfindnewblockbusterse.g.Alzheimers/Obesity
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AlzheimerscommonestcauseofdeathinUKwomen
2010-2050demen;a
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1in3babiesinNewYorkwilldevelopadult-typediabetes-cost$100bnayear
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An;-Ageingwillbeaglobal
obsession-withrapidprogress
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Performance
Shift in retail health care from health treatment to life enhancement
from performance to health e.g. exercise benefits
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Want to look better - $200bn pa by 2020
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may be
Want to think better......
•20%studentsinUS/UKusememorydrugstopassexams
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OrganRepairwillberou;neusingowncells
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Heart / Brain / Retina / Spine / Teeth
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Rod photoreceptors (in green) within a "mini retina" derived from human induced Pluripotent Stem Cells in the lab. Courtesy of Johns Hopkins Medicine
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Re;nacellsfromadultskincells
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Chip connecting above or below retina
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Newinsulincellsincapsulestoprotectfromimmunesystem
Repair Pancreas in diabetics
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46
Competition from implanted digital devices releasing insulin
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7mechanismsofageinginanimalandhumancells
•Celllossoratrophywithoutreplacement•NuclearmutaFonsandepimutaFonsthatcausecancer•MitochondrialmutaFons•Cellsenescence(deathresistance)•Junkinsidecells•Junkoutsidecells•Cross-linksbetweencells(egelasFn)
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Worn out Mitochondria – Energy Boost
R-alpha-lipoic acidAcetyl-L-carnitine
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Treatment which restores and maintains the youthful elasticity of
hardened arteries – and helps wrinkled skin. Global sales?
Low blood pressure and total body lift
Alteon
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Monkeysondietlivelonger•AOer20years-80%alivev50%onnormalcalories• Lesscancer,diabetes,heartdisease,strokes,braindecay
50
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Slow or no ageing is a reality
• Rockfish, Turtles, some Whales
• No signs of getting old
Rougheye rockfish (Sebastes aleutianus) — 205 years Aldabra Giant Tortoise — 255 years Lobsters are believed to live 100 or more years Ocean Quahog clam — 405 years
Some animals do not “age” in normal way
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Less than £1000 per person
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•Software•Mathematics•Ultra-fast processing•Robotics•Biochemistry•Genetics• Immunology
$1,000genome-IlluminaHiSeqXTenSequencer
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Ottawa Hospital, Ontario - 3000 ipads Mayo Clinic - 2000 ipads
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400,000deathsayearinAmericafromavoidablemedicalerrors
Whyarewecollec;ngdata-forpa;entuseortokeepsomeoneoutofhospital?
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Genescreeningwilldominatediseasepreven;onand
treatment
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Confidential
HSV1causescoldsores.WhenengineeredasSeprehvir(HSV-1716),itisharmlesstohealthy@ssue.
•Oncolytic viruses • Infect and kill cancer tumour cells •No damage to healthy tissue •Evidence of impact in clinical trials •Able to deliver new genes into cancer cells
Viruses to cure cancer
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FutureofHospitals
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Beferdigitalimagingandanaly;cswill
transformdiagnosisandtreatment
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Digitallyenhancedmicro-surgerywillalsotransformhospitalcare
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• $75bn endoscopy market by 2022
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• 125,000 stents or carotid surgery a year in US
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Lengthofhospitalstay
willfall10-20%by2025
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RapiddischargeandsupportPreven;onofadmissions
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HomeCarewillgrowveryfastespeciallyforoldpeople
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Growthcommunitynursing
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Enhancedcareassistantss
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250millionwearabledevicesby2023
$20bnto$70bnby2025
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WearableHealthDeviceswillbealmost
universal
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• Diabetes, congestive heart failure, obstructive pulmonary
• 2.2 million at home
• > $22bn by 2015
•Mobile telephony
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Home Tele-Monitoring
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16yearsofcontracep;vesonsinglechip
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Cough,respira;on,wheeze,heartrate
Automated Device for Asthma Management, or ADAM, by Health Care Originals
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Mostpa;entswillhavemoredatathantheirphysiciansabouttheircondi;on
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3000diagnosesadayinUKcomparedto30,000toNHShelplineMoreaccuratethanDoctorsorNurses
50,000videoconsulta;ons
Impactonmedicaltraining
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85% of world population will be living in emerging
markets in 10 years
1% owns 50% wealthAccess to health ?
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Inves;nginDigitalforaHealthierWholeWorld
Expectrapidinnova;onaswellasmul;plesynergies,withintegra;onintoeveryaspectofhealthcare
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Dr Patrick Dixon Chairman Global Change LtdFellow, Centre for Management Development, London Business School
Future of MedTechImpact of digital innovation on MedTech and Health Care