Future of Banking, mobile banking, mobile payments, global corporate banking, private banking and...

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Dr Patrick Dixon Chairman Global Change Ltd www.globalchange.com - 5 million video views Global Trends and their Impact on Future of Banking

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Future of banking, future of retail banking, corporate banking, wholesale banking and private banking. Investment banking trends. Future of banking regulation and compliance in financial services. Future of insurance, mobile marketing and customer expectations, choices and lifestyle trends. Future of alternative payment methods including PayPal, mPesa and Bitcoin. How banking customers are changing. Future of consolidation and mergers in global banking.

Transcript of Future of Banking, mobile banking, mobile payments, global corporate banking, private banking and...

Page 1: Future of Banking, mobile banking, mobile payments, global corporate banking, private banking and retail banking trends - Futurist Keynote Speaker - Lecture Slides

Dr Patrick Dixon Chairman Global Change Ltd www.globalchange.com - 5 million video views

Global Trends and their Impact on

Future of Banking

Page 2: Future of Banking, mobile banking, mobile payments, global corporate banking, private banking and retail banking trends - Futurist Keynote Speaker - Lecture Slides

ALL      BANKING      TRENDS      RELATED

What  will  your  Bank  (and  your  compe6tors)  look  like  in  2020  ?

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SIX  FACES  of  a  spinning  CUBE  spell  the  word

F  U  T  U  R  E

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Page 5: Future of Banking, mobile banking, mobile payments, global corporate banking, private banking and retail banking trends - Futurist Keynote Speaker - Lecture Slides

Most debates about future banking and insurance

strategy are about timing and focus

What if global recovery / Turkey economy / mobile payments / retail

spending / bank regulation / inflation / demographics, the EU, Middle East and rise of Asian markets all change faster

than expected?

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Strategies often overtaken by eventsWorld can change faster than you can hold a board meeting

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Page 12: Future of Banking, mobile banking, mobile payments, global corporate banking, private banking and retail banking trends - Futurist Keynote Speaker - Lecture Slides

Further Shocks?

EU / EuroSyria / Iran / US / Israel

China / JapanMutant virus

Libor lawsuits

(Asbestos: 730,000 claimants - 8500 defendents - $250bn already)

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WGP  1980-­‐2013  (%,constant  prices)  

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US  GDP  1980-­‐2013  (%,constant  prices)  

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EU  GDP  1980-­‐2013  (%,constant  prices)  

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Vietnam  GDP  1985-­‐2011  

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Bank Agility requires

Simplicity

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Future is about...

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Page 22: Future of Banking, mobile banking, mobile payments, global corporate banking, private banking and retail banking trends - Futurist Keynote Speaker - Lecture Slides

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• Click  to  edit  Master  text  styles

Page 24: Future of Banking, mobile banking, mobile payments, global corporate banking, private banking and retail banking trends - Futurist Keynote Speaker - Lecture Slides

You need more than

one banking strategy

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£  375bn

$2.3  trillion  US  +  $65bn  per  month

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$3.4  trillion  

Reserves  

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2% inflation target likely to be discarded

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Future Banking is aboutEMOTION

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Yapı Kredi employees build relationships based on trust with all relevant parties utilising their banking knowledge, skills and commitment to corporate values; they trust those that they grant responsibility and authority. Consistent with the Bank’s corporate values, Yapı Kredi employees

keep their promises in a timely and accurate manner. They take responsibility for their customers’ problems, find rapid solutions and follow up on the results.

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• Mother changed mind re banking online / mobile - in 3 hours, leapt 30 years

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“Great  customer  experiences”    

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80%  lost  in  seconds  

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Bank Customer / Client :

Simple, elegant solutions to complex problems

Anticipate, instinct, smartThought-leadership, common

sense, reliable adviceSuperb backup in crisis

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Page 36: Future of Banking, mobile banking, mobile payments, global corporate banking, private banking and retail banking trends - Futurist Keynote Speaker - Lecture Slides

>40%  WDP  by  2015� IMF - adjusted for Purchasing Power Parity

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300 million move to cities in China and475 million to cities in Africa by 2030

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1 billion over 60 year olds in 10 years

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Europe Dying 4 couples to produce singlegreat-grand child

0-14 years old EU 15% : Turkey 26%>65 years old EU 18% : Turkey 7%

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75%  of  all  US  and  UK  wealth  owned  by  those  over  65  -­‐  mostly  women

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Can we stop ageing ?

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•Pigs  teeth  grown  inside  rats•Mice  grow  new  teeth  from  nerve  cells  /  gum

Grow New Teeth

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Repair Heart / Brain with stem cells

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• After 20 years - 80% alive v 50% on normal calories• Less cancer, diabetes, heart disease, strokes, brain decay

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Monkeys on diet live longer

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Slow  or  no  ageing  is  a  reality  in  animalsJapan  women  gain  15  minutes  of  life  expectancy  every  hour

• Rockfish, Turtles, some Whales

• No signs of getting old

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Page 49: Future of Banking, mobile banking, mobile payments, global corporate banking, private banking and retail banking trends - Futurist Keynote Speaker - Lecture Slides

lPeople like to belonglSense of identitylCommunity lFamilylPersonal advisor

“Relationship Banking”

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50

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85%  of  leaders  of  largest  US  corpora6ons  say  diversity  is  

key  to  innova6on

Forbes  study

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33%  in  UK  don’t  watch  live  TV

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95%  EU  bandwidth  soon  video

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1  trillionpages  a  month

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Would recommend you to a friend ?

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1  trillion  pages                  a  month

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Italy:  58%  increase  in  aggregator  sales  of  insurance  policies  in  first  6  months  of  2013  

v  2012

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Page 60: Future of Banking, mobile banking, mobile payments, global corporate banking, private banking and retail banking trends - Futurist Keynote Speaker - Lecture Slides

56%  all  private  motor  insurance  salesGrowth  1-­‐2%  pa  -­‐  reaching  saturaYon

30%  of  consumers  select  cheapest  policy  Further  58%  select  policy  in  top  five  cheapest

ObjecYve  measure  of  brand  value

UK  Aggregators  Threat

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Weakness of all Aggregators

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NationalismAttempts to skew markets

with government policy

Exchange rate warsCorporation tax spiralTurning blind eye to ....

Page 63: Future of Banking, mobile banking, mobile payments, global corporate banking, private banking and retail banking trends - Futurist Keynote Speaker - Lecture Slides
Page 64: Future of Banking, mobile banking, mobile payments, global corporate banking, private banking and retail banking trends - Futurist Keynote Speaker - Lecture Slides

“Universal Banking”Scale - Innovation Speed

Is the bank large enough for the future ?Eat or be Eaten or more Strategic Mergers

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Why “old” outsourcing story in India nearly over

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� Training 25,000 IT graduates pa

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Location based mobile

marketing

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1500% growth car insurance black boxes

Telematics Scale

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e-­‐commerce  hits  $1.5  trillion  in  2014

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CUSTOMER  CHOICE  200  million  payments  globally

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• Kenya  -­‐  17m  customers• $9bn  pa  -­‐  >33%  GDP• Tanzania  9m  people• 35  naYon  links  via  HomeSend  Hub•

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1.7bn  phone  users  are  unbanked

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$550bn in 2012 - 214m transfers150m immigrants globallyWorld’s poorest 48 nations = double FDI value33% of Liberia economy$55bn remittances by mobile in 2016•

Global  Remibances

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$76bn a year20% charge in Africa

Western  Union

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TabletsBoom

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Paypal  Mobile  

PayPal      $141m  -­‐  $4bn              2009-­‐11  

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2m  businesses  use  SQUARE  in  US

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Square  Daily  Volumes    soon  handling  7000  Starbucks  outlets  

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Secret and untraceable

Bitcoin  Bubble  and  Bust?  

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• In UK alone....• Transactions >EU600 billion pa • Credit card debt >EU60bn• Average card interest rate 16%• 2% commissions worth >£EU12bn

Mobile BankingPayments Doorway

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Free mobile devicescalls / web / TV / games / payHigher income model

2010                                                  2013                                  2015                                                    

TelcoBanks

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• Zettabyte = 1024 ExabytesExabyte = 1024 PetabytesPetabyte = 1024 TerabytesTerabytes = 1024 Gigabytes

BIGData

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• 90%  Microso+  R&D

CLOUD

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Aramco - 30,000 computers hit - files lost

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5.5  billion  cybera;acks42%  increase  /  year

>160Gbps  in  denial  of  service1000  major  abacks  /  hr  in  UK

Worries  about  US  Prism  /  security  services  

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• Home• Work• Online• Offline• Sales• Entertain• Phone• Mobile• Chat• Inst Investor / UHNW / Corporate FD etc

ONECUSTOMER

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Regulatory Swings

eg Capital Adequacy / ROI

Public pressure v Reality

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$40 Trillion Green Tech Boom driven by oil price, cost cuts, green activism

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Shale gas 33% US supplies

3.3m US jobs$468bn pa + more oil

produced than Saudi by 2020

200 years global supplyUp from 60 years in 5 years

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Boom

Bust

Page 94: Future of Banking, mobile banking, mobile payments, global corporate banking, private banking and retail banking trends - Futurist Keynote Speaker - Lecture Slides

5  coal  plants  replace  with  gas  =  9000  megawaDs  wind  Coal  prices  fall  =  more  coal  burnt  in  Vietnam  and  China

57  coal  plants  closed  in  US  in  2012  

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120,000 terawatts of sunlight /day7,000 times total power useQUEBEC  from  ARIZONAMOSCOW  from  SAHARA

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Falling  solar  cell  prices  

Page 97: Future of Banking, mobile banking, mobile payments, global corporate banking, private banking and retail banking trends - Futurist Keynote Speaker - Lecture Slides

120,000 terawatts of sunlight /day7,000 times total global power usePower Moscow from Libyan Desert

“40% EU power = wind by 2050”Surplus wind to hydrogen - to methane ?

Page 98: Future of Banking, mobile banking, mobile payments, global corporate banking, private banking and retail banking trends - Futurist Keynote Speaker - Lecture Slides

Smart  Power  Regula6on  UBlity  Co  controls  consumpBon  in  homes  /  factories10%  Australian  power  genera6on  only  used  for  72  hours  a  yearEnergy  prices  can  soar  from  $50/Mw  hour  to  $10,000/  Mw  hour

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Germany  Power  Surplus

• In  June  2013• Electricity  prices  became  nega6ve  • -­‐  minus  EU150  /  MWhr  !!

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•Rapid growth HVDC Super Grids

• 500,000 S Korea jobs - $200bn Smart Grid Project

•China planning to power Moscow

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Enough salt caverns planned to power Germany for a week

Power  Storage  

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Page 103: Future of Banking, mobile banking, mobile payments, global corporate banking, private banking and retail banking trends - Futurist Keynote Speaker - Lecture Slides

Only sell what you believe inand would sell to your family

and friends

The  only  corporate  value  worth  having  

Page 104: Future of Banking, mobile banking, mobile payments, global corporate banking, private banking and retail banking trends - Futurist Keynote Speaker - Lecture Slides

BeyondCompliance

Perfect compliance will keep bankers out of prison but cannot protect brand, because public expectations change

rapidly - with severe judgment on those who justify past “unethical” behaviour on grounds that it was 100% compliant.

Page 105: Future of Banking, mobile banking, mobile payments, global corporate banking, private banking and retail banking trends - Futurist Keynote Speaker - Lecture Slides

Poor  insurance  image  with  customers  

�Marke&ng:  We  are  here  to  protect  you  and  family,  to  pay  out  generously  and  quickly  if  something  happens  to  you,  giving  you  peace  of  mind  at  a  fair  price.    

�Investors:      We  make  shareholders  as  much  wealth  as  we  can  without  breaking  laws.  We  raise  premiums  as  o@en  as  we  can,  and  pay  out  as  liAle  as  possible  to  finance  dividends.

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Hidden penalties for loyal customers will be seen as unethical

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Truth about Retail Funds�Next miss-selling scandal?�Most actively managed funds fail to beat tracker funds,

when all charges deducted�Most fund managers I have surveyed (total > $1 trillion

under management) are reluctant to invest own money in own retail funds unless they are required to, and reluctant to recommend own funds to family / friends

� “50% of us sell funds of funds but only 5% of us invest in them”

�Ethical questions since whole purpose of active management is to protect wealth, not erode it (as is most likely outcome under current business models)

Page 108: Future of Banking, mobile banking, mobile payments, global corporate banking, private banking and retail banking trends - Futurist Keynote Speaker - Lecture Slides

All sales based on a promisePurpose of business is to deliver

on the promiseProfit is your reward for doing so

Purpose of Business

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Profit  -­‐  Purpose  -­‐Passion

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COST CUTTING

Can be demoralising

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All  leadership  and  innovaYon  comes  from  vision  of  a  beher  future

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Idea  -­‐  Genius  -­‐SoluYon

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Lesson  from  Non-­‐Profit  FoundaYons

Connect  with  all  the  passions  people  have  and  they  will  follow  you  to  the  ends  of  the  earth,  

promote  what  you  do  with  pride,  and  may  even  be  willing  to  work  

for  you  for  next  to  nothing

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EU20,000  Challenge“4  word  phrase  is  basis  

of  all  markeYng,  moYvaYon,  change  

managementand  leadership”

Page 121: Future of Banking, mobile banking, mobile payments, global corporate banking, private banking and retail banking trends - Futurist Keynote Speaker - Lecture Slides

Build a Better Worldindividual family community world

Page 122: Future of Banking, mobile banking, mobile payments, global corporate banking, private banking and retail banking trends - Futurist Keynote Speaker - Lecture Slides
Page 123: Future of Banking, mobile banking, mobile payments, global corporate banking, private banking and retail banking trends - Futurist Keynote Speaker - Lecture Slides

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