Future Mobile Technology Mission to Japan

Dissemination Seminar

Background

Dr Keith Baughan

Chairman Mobile VCE

Nokia Mobile Phones

21st June 2002

Topics

Japan - Evolving Role

Mission Objectives

Mission Structure

Growth prior to 2002

Business Drivers

Japan - An Evolving Role

• Early 1990s - PDC, a national standard• 3G - pro active approach via ARIB, ITU, ETSI, 3GPP• First rollout of 3G - October 2001• Very active in ITU "Systems beyond 3G"• Proposed 4G air interface at 100Mb/s

Mission Objectives

• To review:• the rationale for Japanese proposals for

"Systems beyond 3G" including a "4G" air interface

• The diversity of views across Japanese industry• Technological progress "beyond 3G"• 3G rollout in Japan

Mission Structure

• Joint UK-Japan Symposium

"Future Mobile Communications" at YRP (Yokosuka Research Park)

• Half day visits to individual companies and other relevant organisations

Over 100-fold Growth in 10 YearsMobile phone subscribers worldwide

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002e

1 Billion: 1st half 2002

Cel

lula

r su

bscr

iber

s (m

illi

ons)

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%

P.R. of China

Mexico

Brazil

South Africa

Turkey

Canada

Germany

USA

France

Taiwan

Japan

Spain

Australia

United Kingdom

Netherlands

Korea

Austria

Italy

Sweden

Finland

Dec-91Dec-92Dec-93Dec-94Dec-95Dec-96Dec-97Dec-98Dec-99Jan-00

Cellular Penetration - January 2000

Source World Bank, EMC

Finland Sweden

Italy Austria

KoreaNetherlands

United KingdomAustralia

SpainJapan

TaiwanFrance

USAGermany

Canada Turkey

South AfricaBrazil

MexicoP.R. of China

Time Taken to Reach 50 Million Users

WAP

GSM

WWW/Internet

TV

5 15years 35

Radio

The #1 Consumer Electronics Industry

Sources: IDC, DataQuest, EIU

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

19911992199319941995199619971998199920002001

Million units

Passenger Cars

PC's

Cellular Terminals

Annual sales volumes for Passenger Cars, PC’s and Mobile Phones

Watches -98: 1240 million

The Mobile World

In the future, a major partof personal communication

- be it voice, data, images or video - will be wireless.

The personal mobile devicewill be the main application platform

and medium!

InformationTechnology

Telecom

Consumer

Electronics

Digital and IP Convergence are the Main Building Blocks of the New Mobile World

NEW NEW MOBILEMOBILEWORLDWORLD

Consumption

Connection

Content

Amount and Types of Mobile Content Will Explode in the Future

• Types of content: • User created (images, videoclips, music etc.)

• Personal (music, movies, movieclips, games, applications, etc.)

• Group (family, friends, daughter's soccer team etc.)

• Community (greyhound owners' image album etc.)

• Subscribed (Manchester United Multimedia news service etc.)

• Network provided (location-based weather info etc.)

ImagesMMSs Audio/music ApplicationsVideoclips

New Categories Driving the Market Change

Imaging Phone

Imaging & Messaging & Browsing

Media Phone

Full browsing & Access to Media

Communicator

Full browsing & Corporate Data

Entertainment

Games & Music & Messaging

Business Drivers for "Beyond 3G" in Japan

• Competion from wireline 100 Mb/s• Fundamental belief that digital convergence of

hardware (cameras, audio, video, TV) with broadcasting, communications, computing is a major business opportunity

• Capacity limitations

Note: Social differences