Future Internet Scenarios and Business Challenges

Future Internet Scenarios

and Business Challenges

8. Fachtagung des ITG Fachausschusses 5.2‘Zukunft der Netze’, Chemnitz

Klaus Wuenstel, Michael Soellner

Alcatel-Lucent, Bell Labs, Germany

20 März 2009

2 | Future Internet Scenarios | 20.Mar2009 All Rights Reserved © Alcatel-Lucent 2009

Outline: Future Internet Scenarios and Business Challenges

� Introduction

� Non-technical aspects and business drivers

� Technical concepts for a ‘Future Internet‘

� Business scenarios, value chains and new players

� Business Use Case ‘New Ways of Information Delivery’

� Conclusions

The content of this presentation is based on work

performed in the FP7 project ‘4WARD’

see www.4WARD-project.eu


Major trends in the next decadeand their relation to the Internet

� Technology Environment: Multitude of networked/distributed applications beyond Web2.0

� flexible and participatory,

� “prosumers”: user and provider are widely interchangeable/dynamically attached roles

� Social-Economic Environment: Awareness of demographic change in an aging society (Europe and others)

� Significant percentage of people beyond the age of retirement

� Few young people – need for efficient high-level education

� Shortage of labour force – need for automation and increased efficiency

� “Information” centric rather than “bit” centric at the network level

� Integrated support of mobility

� Wireless access, optical backbones

� Communication everywhere

� Infrastructure to support trade and industry

� New services – new devices – new interactions

� Security that nevertheless keeps the generativity of the network intact

� Low cost to access, deploy and operate evolvable and interoperable networking infrastructure (architectures)


IETF RFC History: Patch-wise Evolution to Complexity

0

500

1.000

1.500

2.000

2.500

3.000

3.500

4.000

4.500

5.000

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

# of new RFCs

# of RFCs (cumulated)

Ethernet, SDH, ATM,..

CSMA/CD…multiple access

fiber, TP, CAT5, radio (GSM, WiFi,…)

SMTP, HTTP, RTP…

email, Web, VoIP,…

TCP, UDP,SCTP...

•IPIPsec, NAT, QoS

mobility, multicast

Complexity is potentially growing with each RFC --Current evolution attempts by “patching the Internet” often violating fundamental Internet

design principles will lead to a dead end: Need for a ‘clean slate’ approach


Switzerland

Spain

France

UK GermanyPoland

Austria

Italia

Norway

Sweden

Israel

WIT

EricssonKTHSICS

EricssonNokia-Siemens-NetworksVTT Alcatel-Lucent

Deutsche TelecomEricssonNokia-Siemens-NetworksTu BerlinUniv. of BremenUniv. of KarlsruheUNiv. of Paderborn

Telekomunikacja Polska

SiemensTPUCN

Technion

SAGO

Telcom Italia

Alcatel-LucentFrance TelecomGET-INTLIP6

Univ. of Basel

Robotiker-TecnaliaTelefonica

IST-TULPTIN

Romania

Finland

NECUniv. of LancasterUniv. of SurreyEricsson

Canada

Po

rtug

al

Ireland

US

FIND/GENIASIAN INITIATIVES

FUTURE INTERNET

FORUM

SECURITY SECURITY SECURITY SECURITY RELATED FP7RELATED FP7RELATED FP7RELATED FP7

PROJECTSPROJECTSPROJECTSPROJECTS

eMobilityeMobilityeMobilityeMobility, , , ,

OTHER EUPROJECTS

Other ETPs(NEM)

W

A DR

4

3GPP, …IETF/IRTF

FIND/GENIASIAN INITIATIVES

FUTURE INTERNET

FORUM

SECURITY SECURITY SECURITY SECURITY RELATED FP7RELATED FP7RELATED FP7RELATED FP7

PROJECTSPROJECTSPROJECTSPROJECTS

eMobilityeMobilityeMobilityeMobility, , , ,

OTHER EUPROJECTS

Other ETPs(NEM)

W

A DR

4 W

A DR

4

3GPP, …IETF/IRTF

4WARD: A Next Generation Internet Project in EU FP7

4WARD Mission

� A holistic approach to shape the “Future Internet” towards a consistent design

� that satisfies the fixed and mobile operators’ and users’ requirements for the next decades

(beyond 2015)

� committed to innovations based on a “clean slate” design


The 4WARD Technical Drivers (1)

� Provide a new architecture framework

� design principles and patterns to easily

develop new custom-tailored architectures

� ensuring required properties and and

interoperability

� adaptable to different technologies and

applications (e.g. based on vitualized

networks)

� Virtualisation of network resources

� Enable different architectures to co-exist

and inter-operate in a secure and cost-

efficient manner

New Architectural Principles and Concepts:

Design Process(including iterations)


Compositionof func-

tionality (CFI)

Requirements …

Requirements …

(Meta) Modeling

“Blue Print”of networkarchitecture

4WARD WP2 Framework

Network architect

Implementationiterations

Inter-operability

Guidelines,building blocks …



Compositionof func-

tionality (CFI)

Requirements …

Requirements …

(Meta) Modeling(Meta) Modeling

“Blue Print”of networkarchitecture

4WARD WP2 Framework

Network architect

Implementationiterations

Inter-operability

Guidelines,building blocks …

Management of Virtual Networks (→Task 3.3)

Provisioning of Virtual Networks (→Task 3.3) (aggregate “slices” and form virtual networks)

Substrate

Virtualised substrate

Virtual Network Virtual Network

Virtualisation of Resources (→Task 3.2) (partitioning of physical infrastructure into “slices” )

Virtualization of Networks:


The 4WARD Technical Drivers (2)

� Networking of information

� Exploit potential of information objects having

their own identity, not bound to specific hosts

� Tolerate interruptions in connectivity and

variations in quality (mobile networking)

� Functionally rich communication paths for

advanced connectivity

� Increase the capacity and dependability of

networks of mixed technologies

� Support applications that require more than

today’s point-to-point dissemination pattern

� Serve mobility, security and QoS requirements

� Embedded, ‘default-on’ network

management capability

� Enable the networks to adjust themselves to

different sizes, configurations and external

conditions

� Design and implement a thin pervasive self-

organising network management plane

A

C

E

B

A

B

E

A

C

A

E

B

A

D

E

A

D

E

E

B

D

D

A

C

E

B

A

B

E

A

C

A

E

BB

AA

BB

EE

AA

CC

A

E

BB

AA

DD

EE

AA

DD

E

E

B

DDD

D

Network of Information:

split/balance

merge/network code

decode

joincodecooperatively

Generic path 1Generic path 2

split/balance

merge/network code

decode

joincodecooperatively

Generic path 1Generic path 2

Generic Connectivity:

In-Network Management:


Non-technical Aspects and Business Drivers

� Society aspects

� Mobility aspects, reachability, virtual environments, less pollution

� Need for security and balance between privacy and sharing

� Business aspects

� Market opportunities, opening of new markets

� Business models and value chains, new roles and players

� Policy, Governance and Regulation aspects

� impact of existing regulations, e.g. legal interception

� non-discriminatory access to network resources and service providers, impact of hypothetical regulations on the future Internet

� These aspects need special consideration:

systematic approach in 4WARD

WP BIRD “Business Innovation, Regulation and Dissemination”


Impact of non-technical Drivers

New Business

Models

New UsagesSocietalTrends

Future Internet/ New Technologies

Governance/ Regulation

create

demand forprovide

economic

base for

drive

introduction

of

make possible

need to comply with

need to evolve with

need to

comply with

need to

adapt to

create

political

pressure

support/impede

make use of/

demand services

from

trigger/

enable

enforce

• A complex system of meshed relationships• Success of Future Internet depends from System Dynamics, not just on individual factors


The 4WARD Feedback Triangle

Modeling the impact of non-technical drivers on Future Internet

PolicyGovernanceRegulation

TechnologiesBusiness ModelsSocio-economics

Service Usage

regulation scenarios:scope and depth of

regulation (light, strong)

business scenarios run under different

regulation scenarios

guidelines,requirements

new concepts,new technologies,

focus areas

guidelines,requirements

new concepts,new technologies,

focus areas


Guidelines set up for 4WARD technical work

� Support safety-critical applications: new technologies must support people to

do the right things in a proper way and in a safe environment

� Support the ‘Networked Everyday Life’: allow communication not only among

persons, but also between persons and things and among things, enable

seamless data availability and exchange everywhere and anytime

� Support mass-market customer requirements: provide a satisfactory quality of

experience for the average customer and high quality of experience on

demand

� Relieve the strain on the environment and be a ‘Green Technology’

� Support existing and emerging business models, enable new players to enter

commercial and non-commercial services without disrupting existing services

and without jeopardizing their evolution.

� follow the ‘Internet Community’ style (decentralized and collaborative

processes, open standards)


Business models, value chains and new players:Methodology

Scenario ‘Business models, value chains and new players’

focuses on the non-technical aspects of the Future Internet

� evaluates the impact of social, economic and political trends on the ICT

business

� works out the most decisive elements that will probably govern the future

business environment

The scenario description includes the study of a couple of issues

in the context of Internet evolution:

� change of the market balance

� opportunities for new business players

� regulation requirements to enable fair and reliable market conditions

� cooperation strategy for established actors

All Rights Reserved © Alcatel-Lucent 2009

Business models, value chains and new players:Outcome

Main drivers:

most relevant factors, about which common view

was achieved on high impact and relevance:

� aging society

� green technologies

� security, privacy, trust

� evolution from consumers to prosumers

...

Main challenges:

most relevant factors, about which controversial opinions

were received on impact and relevance

� from divergent opinions two extreme scenarios were derived :

Elephant & Gazelle


Business Models, Value Chains and New Players:Two Extremes

� The ‘Elephant’ scenario is characterised by strong forces which

preserve a given market regime and allow changes of market forces

only in slow-motion

� The ‘Gazelle’ scenario predicts the coexistence of many players

in a highly dynamic market


Business Models, Value Chains and New Players:Possible Evolution

� Both scenarios will probably not offer the optimum of innovation degree as

business may need both types of business players, ‘elephants’ and ‘gazelles’

� The optimum scenario considering the preferred 4WARD roadmap will be a

track between the two extreme scenarios, trying to enable high innovation

degree over time

� The two starting scenarios are refined by the definition of use cases

1 of

the

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desc

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enar

ios

e.g

. Co

mp

etit

ion

Time 2020

Use cases

Scenarios

4WARD - roadmap

1st step: Evaluation of use cases


From Scenario Work to Business Use Cases

WP 2:

New architecture

principles and concepts

WP 1: BIRD

Business Innovation, Regulation,

and Dissemination

–

WP 3:

Network Virtualisation

WP 4:

In Network Management

WP 5:

Forwarding and

Multiplexing for Generic Paths

WP 6:

Network of Information

Non-technical

Technical

Definition of Use Cases for the evaluation of business models and strategies

Scenario 4: Business model, value chain, new players

Scenario 3: Managing the Future Internet - Benefits for operators

Scenario 2: Novel appl. that are not possible with current Internet (end-user view)

Scenario 1: Looking back from 2020: What made the "old" Internet break


Business Models, Value Chains and New Players:Five major use cases

� Enhanced connectivity in the user communication space

� End-to-End Quality of Service

� Virtualisation

� Identity Provider

� New ways of information delivery

�� Two use cases have been selected for evaluation first


Business Use Cases Studies

Business use cases studied in 4WARD so far:

� Virtualisation

� New ways of information delivery

General Outcome

� Future Internet scenarios have been translated into sound use cases

in close collaboration with technical work packages

� Existing business methodology has been extended with new business role

descriptions and qualitative value chains for the two use cases

� Potential benefits for different players have been identified, summarising

value propositions for customers and business players


Business Use Case: ‘New ways of information delivery’Short Description

� While I am visiting friends, we start talking about an odd book they have read.

� I want to buy it immediately, so from my portable PC I access the proper site (e.g. Amazon.com) and buy it in the form of an ‘e-publication’. This is not a downloadable e-book, as it is popular in the web 2.0.

� It is a real new object in the network of information: I do not buy the download of a specific file (e.g. in PDF format) to my PC, but I buy the right to access the file any time I want, from any device of my own, no worry abut the proper format.

� I have several hardware devices of my own that can be suitable for ‘reading’ the e-publication: portable PC, mp3 player, iPod, home desktop PC, cellular phone, Amazon Kindle (or a similar device), home TV.

� Immediately I start browsing the e-publication on my portable PC, then I stop reading and bookmark the last paragraph I have read.

� When I leave my friends’ house, I resume my ‘reading’ while driving home, choosing my mp3 player.

� It will access the object, modified with my bookmark, and will start reading from this bookmark. As I get home and the service might detect that there are other suitable devices, I am prompted whether I want to switch over from listening the mp3 player to reading on one of these devices: Kindle, home PC or TV.”


Business Use Case: ‘New ways of information delivery’Short Description

� While I am visiting friends, we start talking about an odd book they have read.

� I want to buy it immediately, so from my portable PC I access the proper site (e.g. Amazon.com) and buy it in the form of an ‘e-publication’. This is not a downloadable e-book, as it is popular in the web 2.0.

� It is a real new object in the network of information: I do not buy the download of a specific file (e.g. in PDF format) to my PC, but I buy the right to access the file any time I want, from any device of my own, no worry abut the proper format.

� I have several hardware devices of my own that can be suitable for ‘reading’ the e-publication: portable PC, mp3 player, iPod, home desktop PC, cellular phone, Amazon Kindle (or a similar device), home TV.

� Immediately I start browsing the e-publication on my portable PC, then I stop reading and bookmark the last paragraph I have read.

� When I leave my friends’ house, I resume my ‘reading’ while driving home, choosing my mp3 player.

� It will access the object, modified with my bookmark, and will start reading from this bookmark. As I get home and the service might detect that there are other suitable devices, I am prompted whether I want to switch over from listening the mp3 player to reading on one of these devices: Kindle, home PC or TV.”

ubiquitous

information-centric

content-oriented

multiple access

delay/disruption tolerant

mobility


Business Use Case ‘New Ways of Information Delivery’

Business idea example:

� Support digitalization of media (books, video tapes etc..) from network side

� Support appropriate access to digital media, simple usage of diverse end

terminals including easy switching between them

Technical solutions: Network of information & Generic path concept

Value chain:

Application Service Provider

End user

Cash flowE-book instance,Personal apps (e.g. bookmark)

E-books library

Objects flow

Connectivity

NetInf &Gen Path

Network Operator

Content Provider

Device Vendor

Viable devices

NetInf &Gen Path


Business Use Case ‘New Ways of Information Delivery’

Benefits for the end user

� Comfortable and speed optimized information delivery

� Optimized presentation format dependent on end device and personal

configuration options

� Simple Switching between different end terminals

New service opportunities for providers

� Provide efficient and billable ways of information delivery

Main conclusions for ‘Network of Information’ work package

� Technology has impact on each player’s business processes: new roles and

players, value chain changing to value network

� Impact on social life: any appliances and viable object can be a ‘subscriber’

� Impact on revenue models: appearance of multi-stream revenue structures


Conclusions

� 4WARD accompanies its technology work by a systematic approachto support the business stakeholders for their decision-making with respect to a Future Internet

� ongoing work, more results available towards the project end (mid 2010)

� Challenges for future Innovations:

� Economic and business models

� Viable business models needed for a successful introduction of technical innovations for the ‘Future Internet’

� Find effective ways for transfer of results from Clean Slate ‘Future Internet’ approach into real IP world (migration scenarios)

� Create new and extend existing business models considering

� new players and markets

� new forms of revenues and savings

� Speed up commercial exploitation of the new network systems by elaborating the dynamics in the relations amongst

� new technologies

� socio-economic requirements

� governance and regulation constraints


Acknowledgement

The content of the paper is based on work which has been performed in the European FP7 project ‘4WARD’ [www.4WARD-project.eu] with major contributions also from:

•Banniza, Thomas Alcatel-Lucent Bell Labs

•Biraghi, Anna Maria Telecom Italia

•Correia, Luis Univ. Lisbon, IST

•Kind, Mario Deutsche Telekom AG

•Monath, Thomas Deutsche Telekom AG

•Niebert, Norbert Ericsson

•Salo, Jukka Nokia Siemens Networks

•Sebastiao, Daniel Univ. Lisbon, IST

Thank you

Future Internet Scenarios and Business Challenges

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