Future Grid Forum

Future Grid Forum

CSIRO Energy Flagship

Mark Paterson

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An unprecedented transformation...

“The world’s electricity network will change more in the next 20-years

than it has in the last 100”

IBM Energy & Utilities, ‘Smart Infrastructure – Building the Intelligent Grid of Tomorrow’, Enercom Conference (March 2009).

Australia's Electricity Futures (Copyright CSIRO 2014)

Social Licence

Enabling Technology

Regulation Economics

New

Business Models

Electricity Ecosystem

Electricity Futures & G+REI research domain (Copyright CSIRO 2014)

Australia’s Future Grid Forum

Industry-led

Whole-of-system

Long-term orientation to 2050


Participants


Generators

TNSPs

DNSPs

Government & Regulators

Energy Retailers

End-users, NGOs & Others

Suppliers / Business

ACOSS AMIRA CEC CEFC EEC Grattan Institute Smart Grid Aust The Climate Institute Total Environment Ctr University of Sydney

Stanwell Corporation Hydro Tasmania ESAA

GE Alstom AmpControl Ernst & Young Landis+Gyr Siemens Stockland

DRET AER

AEMC AEMO

ARENA BREE

State Govt: Qld, SA & Vic Aust Local Govt Assoc

Grid Australia: Electranet SP Ausnet Powerlink Transend Transgrid Western Power

Ausgrid Aurora Energy Citipower Energex Ergon Energy SA Power Ntwks Western Power

ERAA AGL Origin Energy

Four 2050 scenarios


Set and forget Leaving the grid

Rise of the ‘Prosumer’ Renewables thrive

Scenario 1: Set and forget

• Closest to a linear path of evolution from the present

• Generation:

o 30% from renewable sources

o 19% from distributed sources

• Modest uptake of energy storage and electric vehicles

• Widespread adoption of ‘set and forget’ demand management solutions offered by networks


Scenario 2: Rise of the prosumer

• Extensive transition to distributed energy networks

• Generation:



• Modest uptake of energy storage and electric vehicles

• Majority see value proposition of remaining grid-connected

• Networks now ‘transact’ electrons between thousands of sites


Scenario 3: Leaving the grid

• Extensive transition toward user autonomy underpinned by distributed generation and storage

• Generation:



• Moderate uptake of electric vehicles

• ~30% are not convinced of grid value proposition and have entirely disconnected by 2050


Scenario 4: Renewables thrive

• Extensive transition to centralised renewables

• Generation:



• Centralised generation primarily from renewable sources + large-scale storage

• System is supported by extensive uptake of electric vehicles and modest uptake of DG and DS


Projected on-site generation share


Grid-supplied electricity consumption


Projected network utilisation


2015-25 Decade of Transition


Seven observations about nature of this profound transition...

1. Network-centric → Customer-centric

2. Centralised → Decentralised/Hybrid

3. Fossil fuel generation → Continuous decarbonisation

4. Regulated natural monopoly → Increasing exposure to competition

5. 20 – 50% of electricity generated locally by 2050

6. Grid continues to play a critical (but evolved) role in 2050

7. Current decision-making processes risk being outpaced in the 2015-25 decade en route to 2050


Eight ‘must haves’...

1. Treat the community as adults and partners on a journey to a new place

2. New models for accelerated decision-making and industry adaptation

3. New tools for network forecasting in a highly-distributed future

4. Ubiquitous ‘taming’ of peak demand spikes is critical for network optimisation

5. Cost-reflective pricing of electricity + enabling technologies ( ‘transactive’ network)


Eight ‘must haves’...

6. National review of the social safety net parallel to tariff reforms

7. ‘Re-invention’ of NSP business models – need to decide what you are going to be!

8. Further regulatory reform where necessary to enable new NSP business models


The Future Grid


CSIRO Energy Transformed Flagship Mark Paterson Energy Flagship

t 0459 841 006 e [email protected] w www.csiro.au/energy

ENERGY TRANSFORMED FLAGSHIP

Thank you

Future Grid Forum

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Transcript of Future Grid Forum