Future fire in Canada's boreal forest: paleoecology results and general circulation model - regional...

Future fire in Canadarsquos boreal forest paleoecologyresults and general circulation model ndash regionalclimate model simulations

Mike Flannigan Ian Campbell Mike Wotton Christopher CarcailletPierre Richard and Yves Bergeron

Abstract General circulation model simulations suggest the Earthrsquos climate will be 1ndash35degC warmer by AD 2100 Thiswill influence disturbances such as forest fires which are important to circumpolar boreal forest dynamics and hencethe global carbon cycle Many suggest climate warming will cause increased fire activity and area burned Here weuse the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index to simulate future forest fire danger showing the expected increase inmost of Canada but with significant regional variability including a decrease in much of eastern Canada These resultsare in general agreement with paleoecological data and general circulation model results from the 6000 calendar yearsBP interval which was a time of a warmer climate that may be an analogue for a future climate

Reacutesumeacute Les simulations effectueacutees avec le modegravele de la circulation geacuteneacuterale indiquent que le climat de la terre se reacute-chauffera de 1 agrave 35degC vers 2100 AD Ce reacutechauffement aura un impact sur les perturbations telles les feux de forecirctqui jouent un rocircle important dans la dynamique de la forecirct boreacuteale circumpolaire et par conseacutequent dans le cycle glo-bal du carbone Plusieurs avancent que le reacutechauffement du climat causera une augmentation des feux et des superficiesbrucircleacutees Dans cette eacutetude nous avons utiliseacute lrsquoindice forecirct meacuteteacuteo canadien pour simuler les risques futurs de feux deforecirct et deacutemontrer lrsquoaugmentation preacutevue presque partout au Canada avec cependant drsquoimportantes variations reacutegiona-les dont une diminution presque partout dans lrsquoEst du Canada Dans lrsquoensemble ces reacutesultats concordent avec les don-neacutees paleacuteo-eacutecologiques et les reacutesultats du modegravele de la circulation geacuteneacuterale pour lrsquointervalle correspondant agrave 6000anneacutees de calendrier anteacuterieures agrave aujourdrsquohui qui a connu un climat plus chaud pouvant ressembler au climat futur

[Traduit par la Reacutedaction] Flannigan et al 864

Introduction

On average nearly 3 times 106 ha of forest burn every year inCanada alone significantly affecting the global carbon bud-get through direct emissions and through alterations to thedynamics of the terrestrial carbon pool (Kurz et al 1995)Forest structure and composition now and in the past is in-fluenced by the fire regime (Heinselman 1973 Wright andBailey 1982) Typically 3 of the fires are responsible for97 of the area burned and most of the fire activity occurs

during a few days with severe fire weather (Flannigan andHarrington 1988) General circulation models (GCMs) haveprojected an increase in the Earthrsquos mean surface tempera-ture by 1ndash35degC over the next century this warming is ex-pected to be strongest in northern latitudes (IPCC 1996)This projected warming has led to fears that the frequencyof extreme fire weather and therefore extreme fire activitywill increase (Clark 1988 Clark 1989 Overpeck et al 1990Wotton and Flannigan 1993 Stocks et al 1998) given thestrong links between climatendashweather and fire (Flanniganand Harrington 1988 Johnson 1992 Swetnam 1993) Firehowever is strongly dependent on other weather variables aswell such as precipitation wind speed and relative humid-ity

A possible increase in forest fire activity is of great con-cern Not only are timber infrastructure and ecological val-ues placed at risk by fire but fire has also been shown to bea significant factor in determining the net carbon balance ofthe forest (Kurz et al 1995) As such an increase in fire ac-tivity could lead to an increase in atmospheric greenhousegases further enhancing the greenhouse effect

Here we test this projection of increased future extremefire weather using three approaches First present and futurefire weather maps are derived from the Canadian GCM andregional climate model (RCM) (Caya et al 1995 Caya andLaprise 1999) outputs for the 1 times CO2 and 2 times CO2 simula-tions Second we modeled the fire weather 6000 years ago(6000 calendar years BP) a time of warmer climate often

Can J For Res31 854ndash864 (2001) copy 2001 NRC Canada

854

DOI 101139cjfr-31-5-854

Received July 11 2000 Accepted January 4 2001 Publishedon the NRC Research Press Web site on May 12 2001

M Flannigan1 and I Campbell Canadian Forest Service5320-112 Street Edmonton AB T6H 3S5 CanadaM Wotton Canadian Forest Service PO Box 490 SaultSte Marie ON P6A 5M7 CanadaC Carcaillet Deacutepartement de geacuteographie Universiteacute deMontreacuteal CP 6128 succursale Centre-ville Montreacuteal QCH3C 3J7 and Groupe de recherche en eacutecologie forestiegravereUniversiteacute du Queacutebec agrave Montreacuteal CP 8888 succursaleCentre-ville Montreacuteal QC H3C 3P8 CanadaP Richard Deacutepartement de geacuteographie Universiteacute deMontreacuteal CP 6128 succursale Centre-ville Montreacuteal QCH3C 3J7 CanadaY Bergeron Groupe de recherche en eacutecologie forestiegravereUniversiteacute du Queacutebec agrave Montreacuteal CP 8888 succursaleCentre-ville Montreacuteal QC H3C 3P8 Canada

1Corresponding author (e-mail mflannignrcangcca)

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used as an analogue for a future climate (eg COHMAP1988) as well as the present day using a specially modifiedversion of the Canadian GCM (Vettoretti et al 1998 2000)This is then compared with charcoal abundance anomalies at6000 calendar years BP in stratigraphic records a proxy forpast fire activity (Clark et al 1997)

Materials and methods

Fire and climate modelsTo model fire danger we calculated the Fire Weather Index (FWI)

component of the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index System (VanWagner 1987) The FWI System is a system of daily meteoro-logically based indexes used universally across Canada to estimatefuel moisture and fire danger in a generalized fuel type The calcu-lated components of the FWI System are based on daily solar noonmeasurements of dry-bulb temperature relative humidity 10-mopen wind speed and 24-h accumulated precipitation The systemmodels fuel moisture through three moisture models which are infact dynamic bookkeeping systems that track the drying and wet-ting of distinct fuel layers in the forest floor These moisture in-dexes are combined with winds to create generalized indexes of theavailability of fuel for consumption and the potential spread rate ofa fire These indexes are combined to create the FWI which is anestimate of the potential intensity of a spreading fire Though de-veloped for a generalized fuel type the FWI System has beenfound to model fire potential in a broad range of closed foreststands with deep organic layers quite well (Van Wagner 1975)

To model the fire weather we calculated the Canadian FWI fromdaily weather outputs of the Canadian GCM and RCM for the 1 timesCO2 2 times CO2 and 6000 calendar years BP scenarios Daily ratherthan monthly data were used because the weather and consequentlyfire behavior can change dramatically from day to day The Cana-dian GCM is a coupled atmospherendashocean model with a transformgrid spacing of 375 by 375deg and full diurnal and annual cycles(Boer et al 1992 McFarlane et al 1992) We used the RCM (Cayaet al 1995 Caya and Laprise 1999) where available (western Can-ada) as it has better spatial resolution than does the GCM The 1 timesCO2 simulation uses 330 ppm of CO2 and approximates the 1960ndash1980 period whereas the 2 times CO2 simulation uses 660 ppm andmight represent conditions around the 2040ndash2060 period The fireseason was defined as May 1 to August 31 as about 98 of thearea burned occurs during this period (Harrington 1982) The sameprocedure was used to generate components of the FWI System for6000 calendar years BP and the present day using a specially mod-ified version of the Canadian GCM (Vettoretti et al 1998 2000)This modified GCM modified the orbital parameters and the car-bon dioxide levels to be representative of 6000 calendar years BPand the present day

Past fire activityThe most direct evidence of past burning activity is provided by

sub-fossil charcoal Lakes and peatlands provide stratified sedi-ments whose chronology may be tested and established using ra-diometric dating (14C 210Pb etc) marker horizons such as tephrabeds or events such as abrupt rises or declines of well-identifiedtaxa (Berglund 1986) Two different sources of charcoal data areused here as northern North American fire proxies first a strati-graphic charcoal data base at the Universiteacute de Montreacuteal (20 sitesin eastern Canada Table 1 Carcaillet and Richard 2000) and sec-ond published literature (25 additional sites in Canada and foursites in the adjacent United States) (Table 2)

Most sites of the Universiteacute de Montreacuteal data base were ana-lyzed by tallying charcoal fragments (gt156 mm2) on pollen slidesthree sites were analysed by tallying macro-charcoal from sedi-ment sieved through a 150-microm mesh screen Sites from the

Montreacuteal data base were selected from more than 60 sites studiedfor charcoal The selection was based on both sedimentologicaland chronological criteria to reduce the variance between charcoalseries resulting from taphonomical aspects (Carcaillet and Richard2000) All lakes retained were smaller than 9 ha and were sur-rounded by the same type of forest at 6000 calendar years BP as atpresent (Table 1) Despite these rigid criteria the variability be-tween charcoal series remains high (Fig 1) and the temporal ana-lytical resolution is relatively low (mean of 14 and a minimum of 2observations per millennium at 6000 calendar years BP) The highstandard deviation results from the recent trend to increasing tem-poral resolution in palaeological studies to reconstruct boreal forestfire frequencies during the postglacial period (Bergeron et al 1998Carcaillet et al 2001)

The charcoal accumulation rate (CHAR) is assumed to reflectlocal or regional burning activity (Clark et al 1997) The CHARhave been transformed into CHAR anomalies (Carcaillet and Rich-ard 2000) to display the differences of fire activity between 6000calendar years BP and the present day High-resolution charcoaltime series display lognormal distributions resulting from infre-quent charcoal peaks that are generally between 2 and 20 timeslarger than mean and background values Consequently the CHARwere first log transformed Anomalies were computed using themean CHAR for the interval 6500ndash5500 calendar years BP for6000 calendar years BP versus the interval 1000ndash0 calendar yearsBP for the present day The anomalies are reported only where thedifference between the log-transformed 6500ndash5500 calendar yearsBP CHAR were different from the 1000ndash0 calendar years BP CHARby more than 05σ of the mean reference CHAR of the site A nega-tive anomaly corresponds to a lower fire activity at 6000 calendaryears BP than at present and vice versa for a positive anomalyWhen no significant differences were found between 6000 calendaryears BP and present-day CHAR the anomaly is reported as null

To increase the geographic coverage of the analysis additionalless rigorously selected sites had to be included The other 29 siteswere analyzed by various researchers over a period of 20 years us-ing a variety of methods Most (21) were analyzed by countingcharcoal fragments larger than some arbitrary size on pollen slideseither tallying the total area of fragments the total number or bypoint count (Table 2) In several cases the results are reported as aldquocharcoalpollen ratiordquo which is hypothesized to make fire eventsmore readily distinguished from ldquonoiserdquo in the charcoal record(Swain 1978) Two sites (Kuhry 1994) used the frequency of visi-ble charcoal horizons in peat cores Two sites were analyzed bychemical assay of charcoal content (Winkler 1985 Campbell 1998)At some sites the sediment was sieved and large charcoal frag-ments were weighed or tallied simply as present or absent (Hu etal 1993 1996) The sites used were of varying surface area depthand morphological characteristics and several peat and swampsites are included They include sites in the grassland as well as inthe coniferous boreal and cold or warm mixed-deciduous forestzones Several of the western Canadian sites are in the foothills ormountains of the western cordillera In most cases a pollen-diagramstyle graph were the only available data In many cases the discus-sion in the original papers indicated whether in the opinion of theoriginal author the period ca 6000 calendar years BP was a periodof relatively high or low fire activity In all cases a visual subjec-tive estimate was made comparing the charcoal influx rate at ca6000 calendar years BP with that of the last 1000 years (excludingthe most recent few samples if these appeared to be significantlyaffected by European settlement) If the charcoal curve had a highlevel of noise this was taken into account subjectively Large iso-lated peaks in the charcoal curve were largely ignored as possibleunique events or artefacts This procedure is similar to that previ-ously used for identifying regional trends in pollen records (Camp-bell and McAndrews 1991) Anomalies were reported as negativepositive or null as above (examples are shown in Fig 2) Null

copy 2001 NRC Canada

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No SiteLatitude(N)

Longitude(W)

Elevation(m asl)

Depth(m)

Area(ha)

Modern and 6000calendar years BPvegetationa

Sitetype

No of 14C dates(210Pb dates)

Analysistypeb Anomalyc Reference

1 Albion 45deg40prime150 71deg19prime300 320 10 25 Mixed temperate Lake 7 AP ndash Lavoie and Richard (2000)2 Atocas (aux) 45deg32prime340 73deg18prime390 114 10 12 Mixed temperate Lake 4 AP + Gauthier (1981)3 Bouchard (Petit) 48deg51prime140 64deg35prime520 145 15 20 Mixed boreal Lake 10 AP ndash Asnong (2000)4 Caribou 48deg11prime520 64deg56prime240 116 23 26 Mixed boreal Lake 7 AP + Jetteacute and Richard (1992)5 Desautels 49deg27prime280 73deg15prime000 480 70 30 Boreal coniferous Lake 5 AP 0 Carcaillet and Richard (2000)6 Dolbeau 48deg58prime010 65deg57prime210 965 22 31 Mixed boreal Lake 7 AP ndash Carcaillet and Richard (2000)7 Fleacutevy 48deg13prime010 71deg13prime080 381 45 15 Mixed boreal Lake 3 AP + PJH Richard unpublished data8a Francis 48deg31prime350 79deg28prime200 305 60 08 Mixed boreal Lake 9 (6) AP ndash Bergeron et al (1998)8b Francis 48deg31prime350 79deg28prime200 305 60 08 Mixed boreal Lake 9 (6) M ndash Carcaillet et al (2001)9 Gabriel (St) 46deg16prime330 73deg28prime330 250 10 03 Mixed temperate Lake 6 AP 0 Richard (1977)

10 JrsquoArrive 49deg14prime500 65deg22prime350 56 24 24 Mixed boreal Lake 6 AP ndash Marcoux and Richard (1995)11 Leacuteonard 49deg12prime280 65deg48prime460 17 10 02 Mixed temperate Lake 5 AP 0 Labelle and Richard (1984)12 Madeleine 47deg40prime200 70deg43prime100 800 38 83 Mixed boreal Lake 4 AP 0 Bussiegraveres (1992)13 Neume 47deg35prime160 77deg06prime390 363 55 29 Mixed boreal Lake 5 AP 0 Richard and Larouche (1989)14 Ouellet 47deg31prime580 68deg56prime380 300 19 06 Mixed temperate Lake 3 AP ndash Richard et al (1992)15 Pas-de-Fond 48deg48prime300 78deg48prime300 290 110 20 Mixed boreal Lake 6 (6) M ndash Carcaillet et al (2001)16 Perdu 49deg10prime150 66deg19prime250 152 70 05 Mixed boreal Lake 11 AP 0 C Labelle and PJH Richard unpublished data17 Pessiegravere (agrave la) 49deg30prime300 79deg14prime250 280 160 40 Boreal coniferous Lake 7 M 0 Carcaillet et al (2001)18 Spearman 46deg32prime380 78deg30prime100 368 15 31 Mixed temperate Lake 5 AP + Richard and Larouche (1989)19 Triangle 48deg42prime360 65deg24prime500 465 20 40 Boreal coniferous Lake 8 AP ndash Asnong (2000)20 Yamaska 45deg27prime280 72deg52prime190 265 35 02 Mixed temperate Lake 7 AP ndash Carcaillet and Richard (2000)

aModern and 6000 calendar years BP vegetation are as follows mixed temperate forests are mixed broadleaf deciduous forests from the cold-temperate zone mixed boreal forest are closed mixedneedleleaf-dominant forests from the southern boreal zone and boreal forests are closed to open needleleaf forests from the northern boreal zone

bAP area count on pollen slides M tallying of or frequency of occurrence of macroscopic charcoalcAnomalies are shown as positive (+) null (0) and negative (ndash) (see text)

Table 1 Characteristics of sites with fire occurrence records at 6000 plusmn 500 calendar years BP

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NameLatitude(N)

Longitude(W)

Elevation(m asl)

Depth(m)

Area(ha)

Modernvegetation

6000 calendaryears BPvegetation Site type

No ofdates

Analysistypea Anomalyb Reference

Mendota 43deg06prime 89deg25prime 257 24 3490 Oak savannah Oak savannah Lake 3 AS + Winkler (1985)Decoy 43deg14prime 80deg22prime 260 05 042 Oaksavannah Oak savannah Lake 5 AP + Szeicz and McDonald (1991)Everitt 43deg30prime 66deg00prime nac na na Maple mixedwood Hemlock

mixedwoodLake na AP + Green (1982)

High 44deg31prime 76deg36prime 192 na 25 Great Lakes ndashSt Lawrence

Great Lakes ndashSt Lawrence

Lake 8 PP 0 Fuller (1997)

Graham 45deg11prime 77deg21prime 381 na 25 Great Lakes ndashSt Lawrence



Harp Wetland 45deg20prime 79deg12prime 389 0 12 Great Lakes ndashSt Lawrence


Swamp 6 CP + Bunting et al (1996)

Perch 46deg02prime 77deg21prime 156 35 45 Great Lakes ndashSt Lawrence


Lake 1 CP ndash Terasmae and Weeks (1979)

Louis 47deg15prime 79deg07prime 300 76 25 Boreal Boreal Lake 3 CP + Terasmae and Weeks (1979)Richter Marsh 49deg01prime 119deg30prime 450 0 15 Grassland Grassland Kettle marsh 0d CP 0 Cawker (1983)Wabamun 50deg32prime 114deg35prime 725 10 8180 Boreal mixedwood Boreal mixedwood Lake 10e CP + Hickman et al (1984)Lone Fox 56deg43prime 119deg43prime 1000 3 5 Boreal Boreal Lake 6 PP 0 MacDonald (1987)Klassen Bajada 50deg52prime 111deg15prime 638 0 66 Grassland Grassland Alluvial fan 3e AS 0 Campbell (1998)OrsquoHara 51deg21prime 116deg20prime 2015 42 50 Subalpine Subalpine Lake 3e M + Reasoner and Hickman (1989)Wilcox Pass 52deg15prime 117deg13prime 2355 0 na Alpine meadow Alpine meadow Bog 2 CP 0 Beaudoin and King (1990)Smallboy 53deg35prime 114deg08prime 762 75 1 Boreal mixedwood Boreal mixedwood Lake 6e CP + Vance et al (1983)Mariana Lakes 55deg54prime 112deg04prime na 0 690 Boreal mixedwood Boreal mixedwood Fen 3 M + Nicholson and Vitt (1990)Buffalow Narrows 55deg56prime 108deg34prime na 0 300 Boreal Boreal Fen 3 M + Kuhry (1994)Kogaluk Plateau 56deg04prime 63deg45prime 534 na na Heath tundra Shrub tundra Lake 5 CP ndash Short and Nichols (1977)Nain Pond 56deg32prime 61deg49prime 91 na na Lichen woodland Shrub tundra Lake 8 CP ndash Short and Nichols (1977)Toboggan 50deg46prime 114deg36prime 1480 5 05 Open subalpine Pine parkland Lake 7e PP + MacDonald (1989)Legend lake 57deg26prime 112deg57prime na 0 700 Boreal Boreal Fen 4 M + Kuhry (1994)Farewell 62deg33prime 153deg38prime na 10 400 Boreal Taiga Lake 6 M ndash Hu et al (1996)Wien 64deg20prime 152deg16prime na 30 1200 Boreal Boreal Lake 8 M + Hu et al (1996)Black Gum Swamp 42deg15prime 71deg30prime 360 5 10 Hemlock Hemlock Swamp 7 PP 0 Foster and Zebryk (1993)GB2 55deg06prime 75deg17prime 300 5 5 Boreal Taiga Lake 4 AP ndash Gajewski et al (1993)EC1 56deg17prime 75deg06prime 250 9 4 Taiga Taiga Lake 4 AP ndash Gajewski et al (1993)LB1 57deg55prime 75deg37prime 200 10 3 Taiga Taiga Lake 4 AP ndash Gajewski et al (1993)LR1 58deg35prime 75deg15prime 170 9 2 Shrub tundra Tundra Lake 4 AP ndash Gajewski et al (1993)Northwest 52deg30prime 92deg30prime na 8 10 Boreal Boreal Lake 4 PP 0 AM Pilmanis JS Clark

and BJ Stocksunpublished data

aPP point count on pollen slides CP particle count on pollen slides or peels AP area count on pollen slides M count or observation of macroscopic charcoal AS chemical assaybAnomalies are shown as positive (+) null (0) and negative (ndash) (see text)cna not availabledDates inferred by correlation of pollen stratigraphyeIncludes at least one tephras

Table 2 Characteristics of charcoal data sources from the literature





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858 Can J For Res Vol 31 2001

Fig 1 Charcoal accumulation rate curves showing an apparent large variability of responses between sites for 6000 calendar years BPversus the present day partially depending on the analytical temporal resolution



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anomalies were also reported in cases where the noise level of thediagram was too high to confidently assign a positive or negativeanomaly as such a null anomaly in this data set should not be nar-rowly interpreted as indicating no change in the fire regime butrather should be taken to indicate either no change or else inade-quate data The high proportion of null anomalies (8 of 29 or28) reflects the low sampling resolution of many studies highnoise levels and caution in the subjective analysis

Many objections can be raised against this procedure howeverdespite the variations in site characteristics and method of analysisthe geographic pattern of negative and positive anomalies is broadlyconsistent (see Figs 5 and 6) Most (7 of 8) negative anomalies inthis data set occur east of 80degW where only 3 of 13 anomalies arepositive 7 of 13 are negative and 3 of 13 are null West of 80degW10 of 16 anomalies are positive 5 of 16 are null and only 1 of 16is negative The negative anomaly west of 80degW is in Alaska andcan be explained by the arrival ofPicea mariana(Mill) BSP in thearea after 4000 calendar years BP (Hu et al 1996) while it had ar-rived at the other Alaskan site by 6500 calendar years BP (Hu et al1993) Since throughout the western region the first arrival of co-nifers at a site is attended by a dramatic increase in charcoal thislate arrival of spruce at the site with the negative anomaly seemsadequate explanation The general consistency of these results sug-gests that at least at this level of interpretation charcoal analysis isa robust proxy for past relative fire activity levels

Results and discussion

Figure 3 shows the difference in mean daily maximumtemperature in degrees Celsius for 2 times CO2 minus 1 times CO2for the May 1 to August 31 period The forested regions ofCanada are expected to be 3ndash4degC warmer in the 2 times CO2scenario as compared with 1 times CO2 Figure 4 displays thedifference in mean daily maximum temperature in degreesCelsius for 6000 calendar years BP to the present day Simi-larly the model indicates that the forested regions of Canada6000 calendar years BP were about 1degC warmer than pres-ent The patterns of temperature differences are similar inboth figures though the temperature change is larger forFig 3 (2 times CO2 minus 1 times CO2)

Figure 5 depicts the ratio of the mean FWI for 2 times CO2over 1 times CO2 Ratios greater than 10 indicate increased FWIwith greenhouse warming while ratios less than 10 indicatedecreased FWI Although there is large regional variabilityFWIs generally increase over central and western Canadawith values significantly greater than in the 1 times CO2 simula-tion However there is a large region in eastern Canada anda smaller area in the northwestern interior where the FWI isexpected to decrease despite the warming Interestingly theregion of decreased FWI in the northwest is smaller in theRCM simulation than in the GCM simulation (not shownhere) partly because of the RCMrsquos greater resolution whichprovides a more realistic simulation of the orographic effectof the western cordillera it may be that as model resolutionincreases this region of decreased FWI will shrink further

Figure 6 shows the ratio of the mean FWI for 6000 calen-dar years BP over the present day Because there is no RCMrun available for the 6000 calendar years BP period theGCM results have been used here the decrease in FWI inparts of the northwestern interior may be due to the rela-tively crude parameterization of the western cordillera in theGCM which results in improperly high estimates of precipi-tation in western Canada (Caya et al 1995) and thereforelow FWI values Therefore these low FWI values in thewest should be largely discounted The results are broadlysimilar to those of the 2 times CO2 simulation in that easternCanada generally shows low FWIs while central and someparts of western Canada show high FWIs However thechanges in the FWI appear to be more pronounced in the 2 times


Flannigan et al 859

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th(m

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PAR

(cou

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~100

Fig 2 Sample charcoal curves from literature sources illustratingthe subjective coding used Shaded boxes show the portions of thecurves that were visually compared each region includes a mini-mum of three samples The Klassen Bajada (curve redrawn fromCampbell 1998) coded as a null anomaly is a continuouslysedimenting alluvial fan complex on the Red Deer River in south-ern Alberta The uppermost two samples were ignored as probablyrepresenting stubble burning on the adjacent field Charcoal con-tent was analyzed by a modified form of the Winkler (1985)chemical assay method Site EC1 (curve redrawn from Gajewskiet al (1993)) coded as a negative anomaly is a small lake innorthern Quebec Charcoal was counted on pollen slides and pre-sented as a charcoalpollen (CP) ratio Decoy Lake (curve re-drawn from Szeicz and MacDonald 1991) coded as a positiveanomaly is a small kettle pond in southern Ontario Charcoal con-tent was counted on pollen slides and expressed as the ratio of thecharcoal and pollen accumulation rates (CHARPAR) Althoughthe uppermost few centimetres of the core were not analyzed theuppermost samples analyzed for pollen clearly show Historic pe-riod (after AD 1850 in this region) farming activity so the upper-most three samples were used for the comparison



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CO2 simulation which may be due to the predicted largerchanges in the climate associated with the 2 times CO2 scenario

It is noteworthy that the modeled FWI anomalies suggestless severe fire weather in much of eastern Canada despitethe warming (Fig 5b) this is due to over-compensating in-creases in precipitation and humidity This is consistent withhistorical evidence that fire frequency in Quebec has de-creased over the last 100 years despite warmer temperatures(Bergeron and Archambault 1993 Flannigan et al 1998)

The FWIs from both the 6000 calendar years BP and the2 times CO2 simulations agree well with the spatial pattern ofcharcoal anomalies at 6000 calendar years BP (Figs 5 and6) The exception to this agreement is an area in the westerninterior of Canada in the lee of the cordillera where thesimulations suggest a decrease in FWI while the charcoaldata show an increase at 6000 calendar years BP This dis-crepancy is likely due to the inadequate representation of thewestern cordillera in the climate models discussed above

What are the implications from these results in terms offire activity Over the last several decades the FWI Systemis correlated to area burned (Harrington et al 1983) whichsuggests approximately a 1 to 1 relationship between FWIand area burned for example if FWI increases 50 for a2 times CO2 simulation we could expect a similar increase inarea burned From Fig 5 we would expect large future in-creases in area burned by wildfire in the forests of centraland western Canada This region where we expect large in-creases in area burned is also the region that historically hasbeen the major contributor to area burned in Canada Other

areas like Quebec and northeastern Ontario which have rel-atively lower burned areas might experience a reduction inarea burned because of lower fire weather severity Thereare other factors that affect area burned such as landscapefragmentation ignition agents fire management activitiesfire season length and the composition and structure of thevegetation Most of the area burned by wildfire is the resultof lightning-ignited wildfires (Weber and Stocks 1998) In-dications are that lightning and lightning ignitions will in-crease in a 2 times CO2 climate (Price and Rind 1994) and thefire season length in Canada on average will increase by22 or 30 days in a 2 times CO2 climate (Wotton and Flannigan1993)

An altered fire regime may be more important than thedirect effects of climate change in forcing or facilitating spe-cies distribution changes migration substitution and extinc-tion (Weber and Flannigan 1997) Fire may act as an agentof change to hasten the modification of the vegetation land-scape This would be true where fire activity is expected toincrease in the next century and would accelerate changes invegetation For example increased fire frequency at thegrassland ndash aspen parkland ndash boreal forest transition in west-ern Canada may hasten the conversion of boreal forest to as-pen parkland and aspen parkland to grassland In those areasof Canada that experience a reduced fire frequency the tran-sition of vegetation types may be retarded For example asthe climate of the southern boreal forest in eastern Canadawarms species would be replaced by more thermophilousspecies from the mixedwood region (Great Lakes ndash St Law-



Fig 3 May to September mean daily maximum temperature difference for 2 times CO2 minus 1 times CO2 in degrees Celsius

Fig 4 May to September mean daily maximum temperature difference for 6000 calendar years BP minus present day in degrees Celsius



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Flannigan et al 861

Fig 5 FWI anomalies for the 2 times CO2 simulation relative to 1 times CO2 simulation Green colors indicate lower FWIs in 2 times CO2 simu-lation than in 1 times CO2 simulation Charcoal anomalies are shown as positive (red) indicating increased charcoal abundance at 6000calendar years BP negative (blue) or neutral (black) Squares show sites from the Universiteacute de Montreacuteal data base diamonds showsites from the literature (a) RCM simulation for western Canada (b) GCM simulation for eastern Canada

Fig 6 FWI anomalies 6000 calendar years BP simulation relative to present day simulation Legend is as in Fig 5



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rence forest) to the south This poleward migration of thesouthern species would be facilitated by the presence of dis-turbed areas such as burns that would allow establishment ofthese migrating competitors In the absence of fire late-successional species such as balsam fir (Abies balsamea(L)Mill) or eastern white cedar (Thuja occidentalisL) coulddominate the landscape and retard the poleward migration ofthe southern species Of course increases in other distur-bances such as pests diseases and blowdown could offsetany decreases in disturbed region due to decreases in areaburned Changes in climate and disturbance regimes maylead to assemblages of species that have never been encoun-tered before (Martin 1993)

The broader implications of an intensified fire regime dueto climate change on the structure and function of the centralCanadian boreal forest include decreased carbon storage insoils and in biomass reduction in old growth stands andhence in late successional species and increased forest frag-mentation which may in turn have significant consequencesfor biodiversity (Weber and Flannigan 1997) In some areaswhere the fire frequency is already high such as in and nearthe aspen parkland of western Canada further increases infire frequency could lead to deforestation In eastern Canadaour results suggest a decrease in fire activity which mayhave opposite consequences These might include increasedsoil carbon storage and increased abundance of old growthstands (where protected from logging and other distur-bances) with consequent increases in late successional spe-cies such as balsam fir and eastern white cedar

If the climate changes as suggested by the Canadian GCMand RCM simulations we would anticipate large spatial vari-ations in the fire weather and consequently fire activityChanges both increases and decreases in fire activity willimpact the vegetation in a complicated fashion acceleratingvegetational change where fire activity increases and retard-ing vegetational change where fire activity decreases The6000 calendar years BP fire weather may be a reasonable an-alogue of a warmer climate to come however the results ofthe presentstudy suggest an even more pronounced change infire weatherwith greenhouse gas-induced warming Feed-backs to global warming through the reduction of soil andbiomass carbon storage in the west while they increase inthe east may result in a net emission of carbon to the atmo-sphere and in a significant net reduction of the terrestrialcarbon pool

Acknowledgements

We thank G Vettoretti for providing the output from the6000 calendar years BP GCM Also thanks are due to RLaprise for providing output from the RCM and to H AsnongB Bussiegraveres and R Gauthier for their unpublished charcoalseries

References

Asnong H 2000 Histoire postglaciaire de la veacutegeacutetation des feuxet des niveaux lacustres en Gaspeacutesie Queacutebec MSc thesisUniversiteacute de Montreacuteal Montreacuteal Que

Beaudoin AB and King RH 1990 Late Quaternary vegetationhistory of Wilcox Pass Jasper National Park Alberta PalaeogeogrPalaeoclimatol Palaeoecol80 129ndash144

Bergeron Y and Archambault S 1993 Decreasing frequency offorest fires in the southern boreal zone of Queacutebec and its rela-tion to global warming since the end of the lsquoLittle Ice Agersquo Ho-locene5 255ndash259

Bergeron Y Richard PJH Carcaillet C Gauthier S FlanniganM and Prairie YT 1998 Variability in fire frequency and forestcomposition in Canadarsquos southeastern boreal forest a challengefor sustainable forest management Conserv Ecol [serial online]lthttpwwwconsecolorgJournalvol2iss2indexhtmlgt

Berglund BE (Editor) 1986 Handbook of Holocene palaeoecol-ogy and palaeohydrology John Wiley amp Sons Chichester UK

Boer GJ McFarlane NA and Lazare M 1992 Greenhouse gas-induced climate change simulated with the CCC second genera-tion general circulation model J Clim5 1045ndash1077

Bunting MJ Warner BG and Aravena R 1996 Late Quater-nary vegetation dynamics and hydroseral development in aThuja occidentalisswamp in southern Ontario Can J EarthSci 33 1439ndash1456

Bussiegraveres B 1992 La deacuteforestation subalpine au mont du Lac agravelrsquoEmpecircche Charlevoix Queacutebec PhD thesis Universiteacute LavalSainte-Foy Que

Campbell C 1998 Postglacial evolution of a fine-grained alluvialfan in the northern Great Plains Canada Palaeogeogr Palaeo-climatol Palaeoecol139 233ndash249

Campbell ID and McAndrews JH 1991 Cluster analysis of lateHolocene pollen trends in Ontario Can J Bot69 1719ndash1730

Carcaillet C and Richard PJH 2000 Holocene changes in sea-sonal precipitation highlighted by fire incidence in eastern Can-ada Climate Dynamics16 549ndash559

Carcaillet C Bergeron Y Richard PJH Freacutechette B GauthierS and Prairie YT 2001 Change in the fire frequency in the east-ern Canadian boreal forest during the Holocene does vegetationcomposition or climate trigger the fire regime J Ecol In press

Cawker KB 1983 Fire history and grassland vegetation changethree pollen diagrams from southern British Columbia Can JBot 61 1126ndash1139

Caya D and Laprise R 1999 A semi-implicit semi-lagrangianregional climate model the Canadian RCM Mon Weath Rev127 341ndash362

Caya D Laprise R Giguegravere M Bergeron G Blanchet JPStocks BJ Boer GJ and McFarlane NA 1995 Descriptionof the Canadian regional climate model Water Air Soil Pollut82 477ndash482

Clark JS 1988 Effect of climate change on fire regimes in north-western Minnesota Nature (London)334 233ndash235

Clark JS 1989 Effects of long-term water balances on fire re-gime north-western Minnesota J Ecol77 989ndash1004

Clark JS Cachier H Goldammer JG and Stocks B (Editors)1997 Sediment records of biomass burning and global changeGlobal environmental change Vol 51 Springer-Verlag Berlin-Heidelberg NATO ASI Ser 1

Cooperative Holocene Mapping Project members (COHMAP) 1988Climatic changes of the last 18000 years observations and modelsimulations Science (Washington DC)241 1043ndash1052

Flannigan MD and Harrington JB 1988 A study of the relationof meteorological variables to monthly provincial area burned bywildfire in Canada 1953ndash80 J Appl Meteorol27 441ndash452

Flannigan MD Bergeron Y Engelmark O and Wotton BM1998 Future wildfire in circumboreal forests in relation to globalwarming J Veg Sci9 469ndash476





Can

J F

or R

es D

ownl

oade

d fr

om w

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rese

arch

pres

sco

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y Sa

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anci

sco

(UC

SF)

on 0

908

14

For

pers

onal

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onl

y

Foster DR and Zebryk TM 1993 Long-term vegetation dy-namics and disturbance history of aTsuga-dominated forest inNew England Ecology74 982ndash998

Fuller JL 1997 Holocene forest dynamics in southern OntarioCanada fine-resolution pollen data Can J Bot75 1714ndash1727

Gajewski K Payette S and Ritchie JC 1993 Holocene vegeta-tion history at the boreal-forest ndash shrub-tundra transition in north-western Quebec J Ecol81 433ndash443

Gauthier R 1981 Histoire de la colonisation veacutegeacutetale desMonteacutereacutegiennes deux sites du mont Saint-Bruno MSc thesisUniversiteacute de Montreacuteal Montreacuteal Que

Green DG 1982 Fire and stability in the postglacial forests ofsouthwest Nova Scotia J Biogeogr9 29ndash40

Harrington JB 1982 A statistical study of area burned by wild-fire in Canada Can For Serv Petawawa Nat ForInst InfRep PI-X-16

Harrington JB Flannigan MD and Van Wagner CE 1983 Astudy of the relation of components of the Fire Weather Index tomonthly provincial area burned by wildfire in Canada 1953ndash80Can For Serv PetawawaNatl For Inst Inf Rep PI-X-25

Heinselman ML 1973 Fire in the virgin forests of the BoundaryWaters Canoe Area Minnesota Quat Res3 329ndash382

Hickman M Schweger CE and Habgood T 1984 LakeWabamun Alta a paleoenvironmental study Can J Bot621438ndash1465

Hu FS Brubaker LB and Anderson PM 1993 A 12 000 yearrecord of vegetation change and soil development from Wienlake Alaska Can J Bot71 1133ndash1142

Hu FS Brubaker LB and Anderson PM 1996 Boreal ecosys-tem development in the northwestern Alaska range since 11000yr BP Quat Res45 188ndash201

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 1996 Climatechange 1995 impacts adaptions and mitigation of climate changescientific-technical analyses Cambridge University Press Cam-bridge UK

Jetteacute H and Richard PJH 1992 Contribution agrave lrsquohistoire post-glaciaire de la veacutegeacutetation en Gaspeacutesie meacuteridionale Queacutebec GeogrPhys Quat46 273ndash284

Johnson EA 1992 Fire and vegetation dynamics studies fromthe North American boreal forest Cambridge University PressCambridge UK

Kuhry P 1994 The role of fire in the development ofSphagnum-dominated peatlands in western boreal Canada J Ecol82 899ndash910

Kurz WA Apps MJ Stocks BJ and Volney JA 1995 Globalclimate change disturbance regimes and biospheric feedbacks oftemperate and boreal forestsIn Biotic feedbacks in the global cli-matic system Will the warming feed the warmingEdited byGM Woodwell and FT Mackenzie Oxford University PressNew York pp 119ndash133

Labelle C and Richard PJH 1984 Histoire postglaciaire de laveacutegeacutetation dans la reacutegion de Mont-Saint-Pierre Gaspeacutesie GeogrPhys Quat38 257ndash274

Lavoie M and Richard PJH 2000 Postglacial water-level changesof a small lake in southern Quebec Canada Holocene10 621ndash634

MacDonald GM 1987 Postglacial development of the subalpinendashboreal transition forest of western Canada J Ecol75 303ndash320

MacDonald GM 1989 Postglacial paleoecology of the subalpineforestndashgrassland ecotone of southwestern Alberta new insights onvegetation and climate change in the Canadian Rocky mountainsand adjacent foothills Palaeogeogr Palaeoclimatol Palaeoecol73155ndash173

Marcoux N and Richard PJH 1995 Veacutegeacutetation et fluctuationsclimatiques postglaciaires sur la cocircte septentrionale gaspeacutesienneQueacutebec Can J Earth Sci32 79ndash96

Martin P 1993 Vegetation responses and feedbacks to climate areview of models and processes Clim Dyn8 201ndash210

McFarlane NA Boer GJ Blanchet J-P and Lazare M 1992The Canadian Climate Centre second-generation general circu-lation model and its equilibrium climate J Clim5 1013ndash1044

Nicholson BJ and Vitt DH 1990 The paleoecology of a peat-land complex in continental western Canada Can J Bot68121ndash138

Overpeck JT Rind D and Goldberg R 1990 Climate-inducedchanges in forest disturbance and vegetation Nature (London)343 51ndash53

Price C and Rind D 1994 The impact of a 2 times CO2 climate onlightning-caused fires J Clim7 1484ndash1494

Reasoner MA and Hickman M 1989 Late Quaternary environ-mental change in the Lake OrsquoHara region Yoho national ParkBritish Columbia Palaeogeogr Palaeoclimatol Palaeoecol72291ndash316

Richard PJH 1977 Histoire post-wisconsinienne de la veacutegeacutetationdu Queacutebec meacuteridional par lrsquoanalyse pollinique Service de laRecherche Ministegravere des Terres et Forecircts Queacutebec Que

Richard PJH and Larouche A 1989 La veacutegeacutetation post-glaciairedu Teacutemiscamingue Queacutebec durant lrsquoeacutepisode glaciolacustreBarlow Can J Bot67 544ndash558

Richard PJH Larouche A and Lortie G 1992 Contribution agravelrsquohistoire postglaciaire de la veacutegeacutetation en Gaspeacutesie meacuteridionaleQueacutebec Geogr Phys Quat46 151ndash172

Short SK and Nichols H 1977 Holocene pollen diagrams fromsubarctic LabradorndashUngava vegetational history and climaticchange Arct Alp Res9 265ndash290

Stocks BJ Fosberg MA Lynham TJ Mearns L WottonBM Yang Q Jin J-Z Lawrence K Hartley GR MasonJA and McKenney DW 1998 Climate change and forest firepotential in Russian and Canadian boreal forests Clim Change38 1ndash13

Swain AM 1978 Environmental changes during the past 2000years in north-central Wisconsin analysis of pollen charcoaland seeds from varved lake sediments Quat Res10 55ndash68

Swetnam TW 1993 Fire history and climate change in giant se-quoia groves Science (Washington DC)262 885ndash889

Szeicz JM and MacDonald GM 1991 Postglacial vegetationhistory of oak savanna in southern Ontario Can J Bot691507ndash1519

Terasmae J and Weeks NC 1979 Natural fires as an index ofpaleoclimate Can Field Nat93 116ndash125

Vance RE Emerson D and Habgood T 1983 A mid-Holocenerecord of vegetative change in central Alberta Can J Earth Sci20 364ndash376

Van Wagner CE 1975 A comparison of the Canadian and Ameri-can forest fire danger rating system Can For Serv PetawawaFor Exp Stn Inf Rep PS-X-59

Van Wagner CE 1987 Development and structure of the Cana-dian forest fire weather index system Can For Serv For TechRep 35

Vettoretti G Peltier WR and McFarlane NA 1998 Simulationof mid-Holocene climate using an atmospheric general circula-tion model J Clim11 2607ndash2627

Vettoretti G Peltier WR McFarlane NA and PaleoclimateModel Intercomparison Project participating groups 2000 Thesimulated response in soil moisture parameterization under paleo-climatic boundary conditions at 6000 years before present CanJ Earth Sci37 635ndash660


Flannigan et al 863



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(UC

SF)

on 0

908

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pers

onal

use

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Weber MG and Flannigan MD 1997 Canadian boreal forestecosystem structure and function in a changing clime impact onfire regimes Environ Rev5 145ndash166

Weber MG and Stocks BJ 1998 Forest fires and the sustainabilityin the boreal forests of Canada Ambio27 545ndash550

Winkler MG 1985 Charcoal analysis for paleoenvironmental in-terpretation a chemical assay Quat Res23 313ndash326

Wright HA and Bailey AW 1982 Fire ecology United Statesand southern Canada John Wiley amp Sons New York

Wotton BM and Flannigan MD 1993 Length of the fire seasonin a changing climate For Chron69 187ndash192



Can

J F

or R

es D

ownl

oade

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om w

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rese

arch

pres

sco

m b

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908

14

For

pers

onal

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44 Eville Gorham Joannes A Janssens Paul H Glaser 2003 Rates of peat accumulation during the postglacial period in 32 sites fromAlaska to Newfoundland with special emphasis on northern Minnesota Canadian Journal of Botany 815 429-438 [Abstract][PDF] [PDF Plus]

45 Douglas J Hallett Dana S Lepofsky Rolf W Mathewes Ken P Lertzman 2003 11 000 years of fire history and climate inthe mountain hemlock rain forests of southwestern British Columbia based on sedimentary charcoal Canadian Journal of ForestResearch 332 292-312 [Abstract] [PDF] [PDF Plus]

46 WJ de Groot PM Bothwell DH Carlsson KA Logan 2003 Simulating the effects of future fire regimes on western Canadianboreal forests Journal of Vegetation Science 14 355 [CrossRef]

47 C Carcaillet H Almquist H Asnong RHW Bradshaw JS Carrioacuten M-J Gaillard K Gajewski JN Haas SG HaberleP Hadorn SD Muumlller PJH Richard I Richoz M Roumlsch MF Saacutenchez Gontildei H von Stedingk AC Stevenson B TalonC Tardy W Tinner E Tryterud L Wick KJ Willis 2002 Holocene biomass burning and global dynamics of the carboncycle Chemosphere 49 845-863 [CrossRef]

48 Markus L Heinrichs Richard J Hebda Ian R Walker Samantha L Palmer 2002 Postglacial paleoecology and inferredpaleoclimate in the Engelmann sprucendashsubalpine fir forest of south-central British Columbia Canada PalaeogeographyPalaeoclimatology Palaeoecology 184 347-369 [CrossRef]

49 Yves Bergeron Bernhard Denneler Danielle Charron Martin-Philippe Girardin 2002 Using dendrochronology to reconstructdisturbance and forest dynamics around Lake Duparquet northwestern Quebec Dendrochronologia 20 175-189 [CrossRef]

50 Markus L Heinrichs Richard J Hebda Ian R Walker 2001 Holocene vegetation and natural disturbance in the Engelmann Spruce Subalpine Fir biogeoclimatic zone at Mount Kobau British Columbia Canadian Journal of Forest Research 3112 2183-2199[Abstract] [PDF] [PDF Plus]

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used as an analogue for a future climate (eg COHMAP1988) as well as the present day using a specially modifiedversion of the Canadian GCM (Vettoretti et al 1998 2000)This is then compared with charcoal abundance anomalies at6000 calendar years BP in stratigraphic records a proxy forpast fire activity (Clark et al 1997)

Materials and methods

Fire and climate modelsTo model fire danger we calculated the Fire Weather Index (FWI)

component of the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index System (VanWagner 1987) The FWI System is a system of daily meteoro-logically based indexes used universally across Canada to estimatefuel moisture and fire danger in a generalized fuel type The calcu-lated components of the FWI System are based on daily solar noonmeasurements of dry-bulb temperature relative humidity 10-mopen wind speed and 24-h accumulated precipitation The systemmodels fuel moisture through three moisture models which are infact dynamic bookkeeping systems that track the drying and wet-ting of distinct fuel layers in the forest floor These moisture in-dexes are combined with winds to create generalized indexes of theavailability of fuel for consumption and the potential spread rate ofa fire These indexes are combined to create the FWI which is anestimate of the potential intensity of a spreading fire Though de-veloped for a generalized fuel type the FWI System has beenfound to model fire potential in a broad range of closed foreststands with deep organic layers quite well (Van Wagner 1975)

To model the fire weather we calculated the Canadian FWI fromdaily weather outputs of the Canadian GCM and RCM for the 1 timesCO2 2 times CO2 and 6000 calendar years BP scenarios Daily ratherthan monthly data were used because the weather and consequentlyfire behavior can change dramatically from day to day The Cana-dian GCM is a coupled atmospherendashocean model with a transformgrid spacing of 375 by 375deg and full diurnal and annual cycles(Boer et al 1992 McFarlane et al 1992) We used the RCM (Cayaet al 1995 Caya and Laprise 1999) where available (western Can-ada) as it has better spatial resolution than does the GCM The 1 timesCO2 simulation uses 330 ppm of CO2 and approximates the 1960ndash1980 period whereas the 2 times CO2 simulation uses 660 ppm andmight represent conditions around the 2040ndash2060 period The fireseason was defined as May 1 to August 31 as about 98 of thearea burned occurs during this period (Harrington 1982) The sameprocedure was used to generate components of the FWI System for6000 calendar years BP and the present day using a specially mod-ified version of the Canadian GCM (Vettoretti et al 1998 2000)This modified GCM modified the orbital parameters and the car-bon dioxide levels to be representative of 6000 calendar years BPand the present day

Past fire activityThe most direct evidence of past burning activity is provided by

sub-fossil charcoal Lakes and peatlands provide stratified sedi-ments whose chronology may be tested and established using ra-diometric dating (14C 210Pb etc) marker horizons such as tephrabeds or events such as abrupt rises or declines of well-identifiedtaxa (Berglund 1986) Two different sources of charcoal data areused here as northern North American fire proxies first a strati-graphic charcoal data base at the Universiteacute de Montreacuteal (20 sitesin eastern Canada Table 1 Carcaillet and Richard 2000) and sec-ond published literature (25 additional sites in Canada and foursites in the adjacent United States) (Table 2)

Most sites of the Universiteacute de Montreacuteal data base were ana-lyzed by tallying charcoal fragments (gt156 mm2) on pollen slidesthree sites were analysed by tallying macro-charcoal from sedi-ment sieved through a 150-microm mesh screen Sites from the

Montreacuteal data base were selected from more than 60 sites studiedfor charcoal The selection was based on both sedimentologicaland chronological criteria to reduce the variance between charcoalseries resulting from taphonomical aspects (Carcaillet and Richard2000) All lakes retained were smaller than 9 ha and were sur-rounded by the same type of forest at 6000 calendar years BP as atpresent (Table 1) Despite these rigid criteria the variability be-tween charcoal series remains high (Fig 1) and the temporal ana-lytical resolution is relatively low (mean of 14 and a minimum of 2observations per millennium at 6000 calendar years BP) The highstandard deviation results from the recent trend to increasing tem-poral resolution in palaeological studies to reconstruct boreal forestfire frequencies during the postglacial period (Bergeron et al 1998Carcaillet et al 2001)

The charcoal accumulation rate (CHAR) is assumed to reflectlocal or regional burning activity (Clark et al 1997) The CHARhave been transformed into CHAR anomalies (Carcaillet and Rich-ard 2000) to display the differences of fire activity between 6000calendar years BP and the present day High-resolution charcoaltime series display lognormal distributions resulting from infre-quent charcoal peaks that are generally between 2 and 20 timeslarger than mean and background values Consequently the CHARwere first log transformed Anomalies were computed using themean CHAR for the interval 6500ndash5500 calendar years BP for6000 calendar years BP versus the interval 1000ndash0 calendar yearsBP for the present day The anomalies are reported only where thedifference between the log-transformed 6500ndash5500 calendar yearsBP CHAR were different from the 1000ndash0 calendar years BP CHARby more than 05σ of the mean reference CHAR of the site A nega-tive anomaly corresponds to a lower fire activity at 6000 calendaryears BP than at present and vice versa for a positive anomalyWhen no significant differences were found between 6000 calendaryears BP and present-day CHAR the anomaly is reported as null

To increase the geographic coverage of the analysis additionalless rigorously selected sites had to be included The other 29 siteswere analyzed by various researchers over a period of 20 years us-ing a variety of methods Most (21) were analyzed by countingcharcoal fragments larger than some arbitrary size on pollen slideseither tallying the total area of fragments the total number or bypoint count (Table 2) In several cases the results are reported as aldquocharcoalpollen ratiordquo which is hypothesized to make fire eventsmore readily distinguished from ldquonoiserdquo in the charcoal record(Swain 1978) Two sites (Kuhry 1994) used the frequency of visi-ble charcoal horizons in peat cores Two sites were analyzed bychemical assay of charcoal content (Winkler 1985 Campbell 1998)At some sites the sediment was sieved and large charcoal frag-ments were weighed or tallied simply as present or absent (Hu etal 1993 1996) The sites used were of varying surface area depthand morphological characteristics and several peat and swampsites are included They include sites in the grassland as well as inthe coniferous boreal and cold or warm mixed-deciduous forestzones Several of the western Canadian sites are in the foothills ormountains of the western cordillera In most cases a pollen-diagramstyle graph were the only available data In many cases the discus-sion in the original papers indicated whether in the opinion of theoriginal author the period ca 6000 calendar years BP was a periodof relatively high or low fire activity In all cases a visual subjec-tive estimate was made comparing the charcoal influx rate at ca6000 calendar years BP with that of the last 1000 years (excludingthe most recent few samples if these appeared to be significantlyaffected by European settlement) If the charcoal curve had a highlevel of noise this was taken into account subjectively Large iso-lated peaks in the charcoal curve were largely ignored as possibleunique events or artefacts This procedure is similar to that previ-ously used for identifying regional trends in pollen records (Camp-bell and McAndrews 1991) Anomalies were reported as negativepositive or null as above (examples are shown in Fig 2) Null


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14

For

pers

onal

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Flannigan et al 859

Dat

e(c

alen

dar ye

arsBP)

7480-7890

12975-13460

Dep

th(m

)

Missinginterval

0

1

2

3

4

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

Cha

rcoa

l(a

ssay

)

0 5

Age

(C

year

BP)

14

Age

(calen

dar ye

arsBP)

CP

(cou

nt)


AnomalyDecoy

(+)

0

2000

0

2000

45004000

6900 6000

0

100

200

300

400

0 05 10 15 200 40 80

2800

7250

9570

11925

13770

Dat

e(c

alen

dar ye

arsBP)

Dep

th(m

)

CHAR

PAR

(cou

nt)

~100




Can

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Can

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(UC

SF)

on 0

908

14

For

pers

onal

use

onl

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Flannigan et al 861





Can

J F

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d fr

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nrc

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pres

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n Fr

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(UC

SF)

on 0

908

14

For

pers

onal

use

onl

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Acknowledgements


References


























Can

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on 0

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For

pers

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use

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Flannigan et al 863



Can

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on 0

908

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Can

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on 0

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Can

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on 0

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Can

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Can

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Can

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(UC

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on 0

908

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For

pers

onal

use

onl

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Flannigan et al 861





Can

J F

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on 0

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For

pers

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use

onl

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Acknowledgements


References


























Can

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on 0

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pers

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Flannigan et al 863



Can

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Can

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Can

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Can

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For

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use

onl

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Flannigan et al 861





Can

J F

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For

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Acknowledgements


References


























Can

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Flannigan et al 863



Can

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Can

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Can

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Acknowledgements


References


























Can

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on 0

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Flannigan et al 863



Can

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Flannigan et al 863



Can

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Future fire in Canada's boreal forest: paleoecology results and general circulation model - regional...

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Transcript of Future fire in Canada's boreal forest: paleoecology results and general circulation model - regional...