Future Emissions of Air Pollutants and Greenhouse Gases ... · PDF fileFuture Emissions of Air...

Future Emissions of Air Pollutants and Greenhouse Gases Over Korea and East Asia

Jung-Hun Woo1, Younha Kim1, Ki-Chul Choi1, Dong-Keun Lee2, Jin-Han Park2, Tae Yong Jung3, Sung-Chul Hong4, Sangkyun Kim4, Ji-Hyung Hong4

plus IIASA, NIES, and many others…

1. Konkuk University, Korea (UC Irvine)2. Seoul National University, Korea3. KDI School, Korea4. National Institute of Environmental Research, Korea

HTAP Emission Scenario Workshop, February 12, 2015

• [email protected]• [email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

Wish List

1. Future Scenarios for Climate-AQ over East Asia(Big and Far)

2. Future Scenarios for AQ Policy over Korea(Medium Range)

3. Emissions Evaluation : East Asia and Seoul(Close and Firm)

4. Summary

Domain1[105(EW)x65(NS)]

54km gridsDomain2

[45(EW)x69(NS18km grids

/CMAQ

/GEOS-Chem

Climate-Air Quality Modeling System- NIER/SNU-ICAMS*

3

OFF/ON LineCoupling

Climate Change Model

Atmos. Chemistry Model RegionalAtmos. Chemistry Model

Regional Climate Change Model

Global Scale Regional Scale

Regional ScaleGlobal Scale

OFF/ON LineCoupling

Downscaling

Downscaling

Integrated Modeling System(NIER -ICAMS)

OFF/ON LineCoupling

MM5

CMAQ

CCSM

GEOS-Chem

* KU-EPS : Konkuk University Emission Processing System

Global and regional emission processing system(KU-EPS* and SMOKE-Asia)

Global and Regional Emission Domains

Asia

• Integrated Climate Change and Air Quality Modeling System

- National Institute of Environmental Research(NIER), 2011; Lee et al., AE, 2015

Evolution of Climate Change and Air Quality Study using ICAMS

NCAR CCSM v3 (GCM)

GEOS-Chem (CTM)

for global ozone-PM

inputmeteorologygreenhouse

gases

ozone-PM precursors

boundaryconditions

boundaryconditions

CMAQ for regional ozone-

PM

inputmeteorology

MM-5 or WRF RCM

ozone-PM precursors

Applied to 2000 - 2100 global change simulations with six IPCC scenarios; Compare 2020, 2050, 2100 climate (10-yr averages) to 2000 (1998-2000)

4

IPCCfuture emission (SRES) Scenario 2008~2010

(1st Stage)

IPCCfuture emission (RCP) Scenario 2011~2013

(2nd Stage)

Newfuture emission (NIER) Scenario 2014~??

(3rd Stage)

IIASA

NIES

New East Asia Future Emission Scenarios for ICAMS

IAMs

TsinghuaUniv.

Socio-economic Param.CC-AQ Policy & Tech.

Emission Factor

CREATE(Baseline Emissions)

Emission Inventories for Present and Futures

(SMOKE-Ready)

KU-EPS/SMOKE-Asia

Modeling Emission Inventories

GAINS-Asia/Korea(Downscaling/Assessm

ent)

KU

MESSAGE -ChinaAIM -KoreaAIM - Japan

SNU

KDISchool

ICAMS

Features

•Up to 2100•LLCPs and SLCPs emissions•Global and Regional•CC and AQ modeling friendly

Social-Economic Condition

Low emissionScenario

High emissionScenario

Includingmitigation policies

BAUScenario

Socio-economic scenarios are matched to SSP2, 3, 5

Social economic condition

<Template for policy research>

BAU scenario contained the national policy of mitigation

<Example>

Distribution rate of high efficiency electronic device in residential sector from 2010 to 2050

Distribution rate of electric cars in transport sector from 2010 to 2020

National development plan in power sector to 2020

Energy plan in industrial sector

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2010

2014

2018

2022

2026

2030

2034

2038

2042

2046

2050

2054

2058

2062

2066

2070

2074

2078

2082

2086

2090

2094

2098

Population

BAU Low High

Millions

30.0

42.5

18.5

48.2

Source : IIASA

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

2010

2014

2018

2022

2026

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2042

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2050

2054

2058

2062

2066

2070

2074

2078

2082

2086

2090

2094

2098

GDP

BAU Low High

USD Billions

1321

Energy and Emissions Projection(CO2)

-

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

CO2 Emissions (Total)

BAU Low High

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50

100

150

200

250

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

Energy Consumption(Total)

BAU Low High

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25

2010 2030 2050 2100

Residential

BAU RSD Low RSD High RSD

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Commercial

BAU SER Low SER High SER

0123456789

2010 2030 2050 2100

Steel

BAU STL Low STL High STL

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80

100

120

140

2010 2030 2050 2100

Transport

BAU TRT Low TRT High TRT

MCO2t M TOE M TOE

M TOE M TOE M TOE

CO2Emissions

Inter-comparison

MCO2t

Wish List




4. Summary

Local Air Quality Management - SMA Air Quality Management Plan(SAQMP)

Target Air Quality

SAQMP (A Kind of Maximum Feasible Reduction : MFR)

PM10 NOx SOx VOCs2001 14,681 309,387 70,188 262,479

⇓ ⇓ ⇓ ⇓

2014 8,999 145,412 43,025 160,900

reductionrate 38.7% 53% 38.7% 38.7%

ton/yr1st phase (2005~2014)

2024PM10 PM2.5

SOx NOx VOCwith Fusitive

Dust

without Fusitive

Dust

with Fusitive

Dust

without Fusitive

Dustpredicted emission 68,306 8,659 14,024 6,265 50,401 300,157 303,620

reductionrate 34% 59% 45% 53% 44% 55% 56%

Goal 45,053 3,534 7,781 3,029 28,159 134,041 133,195

ton/yr2nd phase (2015~2024)

Implementation of GAINS-Korea Model

• Regions : 17, Year: 2010(base) ~ 2050(Future)

• Pollutants: CO2, CH4, NOx, N2O, PM10, PM2.5, SO2,

VOC, NH3, CO, BC, OC, Mercury

• Sectors: Energy, Mobile, Industrial Process, VOCs,

Agriculture (detail sectors : 250)

• Source-Receptor Impact (CAMx & SMOKE)

KORS-NORT: 한국의 북부KORS-SOUT: 한국의 남부KORS-SEOI: 서울, 인천 등의지역KORS-PUSA: 부산 등

SR Matrices Blame Matrices

Jerzy Bartnicki, 2000• K: The influence of background conc. • SOMO35: the annual sum of daily maximum 8hr running average

of ozone subtracting 35 ppbv

useful tool to find better solution with least cost

GAINS-Asia : 4 regions

GAINS-Korea designed 17regions

11

• Sce1, NFC2010 : No further control after year 2010. All controls will be phased-out as life time reached

• Sce2, CLE2010 : Maintain 2010 level of control until 2025. No more control policies/devices will be introduced

• Sce3, SAQMP : Implement all planned control policies and technologies (SAQMP 1st + 2nd) until year 2025.

• Sce4, MFR2025 : Maximum Feasible Reduction by 2025. More stringent control technologies and control policies will be introduced

Four Scenario pathways

Base year 2010 2025

NFC 2010

2020

Emis

sion

2015

CLE 2010

SAQMP

MFR 2025

Real Control

Policies

(current + planed)

More stringentControl Policy

No Control

12

Selection of Control Measures from SAQMP (1st+2nd)

Source Regulations Source RegulationsTotal amount regulation and Emissions Trading Stringent emission standards for new vehicles

Expansion of areas using low-Sulfur fuel Distribution of low emission vehicles

Fuel switching, from Bituminous coal to LNG Emission reduction plan for specified-diesel-vehicles: SCR/DPF installation

Stricter Emission Allowance Standard Emission reduction plan for specified-diesel-vehicles: DOC installation

Introduction of emission taxes on Nox Emission reduction plan for specified-diesel-vehicles: LPG conversion

Closure of small-scale incineration facilities Early retirement program

Increase of environment-friendly firms Stringent emission standards

Agreement on voluntary environmental agreement Higher quality standards for engine oil

Training of Manuel for Best Facility Management Mandatory regular inspection program

Financial support for facility investment Higher quality standards for gasoline fuels

Stricter management of facility for PM10 & VOC Improvement of public transportation infrastructure

Expansion of district air conditioning and heating system Stage II controls at gas stations

Expansion of small-scale Community Energy System Restriction of the use of cutback asphalt

Expansion of Low-NOx boilers Restriction of solvent for consumer products

Better management of LNG facilities Solvent Emissions Directive for paint in construction and

Distribution of alternative energy: solar energy Expansion of water-paint type in construction and buildings

Regulation on indoor air-conditioning and heating Installation oc the control application for Briquettes production

Eco- building standards and certification programs Installation of the application for Charbroiling Restaurants

Conversion of anthracite into natural gas Clean Road

Expansion of areas using low-Sulfur and clean fuels Expansionof low tire wear

Regulation of fugitive dust in Industrial Process Ground to Green Infra

Mobile

AreaSource

AreaSource

PointSource


















Restriction of Solid fuels Installation of the application for Charbroiling Restaurants




PointSource

Mobile

AreaSource

AreaSource

Select 28 realistic control measures from all SAQMP regulations and

Implement them in the GAINS-Korea

13

Change of Emissions by Sector (SAQMP)

Kt/yr

Transport

Industrial process

Energy +Domestic Other

(Solvent use)

Future Emissions for SAQMP Scenario

PM10 PM2.5

NOx SO2 VOC

Baseyear=2010 Need additional measures!!

15

Future Emissions for MFR2025 Scenario

PM10 PM2.5

NOx SO2 VOC

Baseyear=2010

16

Inter-comparison of Emissions Scenario Pathways

Year/2010

Year/2010

Wish List




4. Summary

C. Song,2014

PM10: 166 ug/m32013, Dec 5th

2013, Dec 6th PM10: 35 ug/m3

NIER National Air Quality Forecasting(Nov. 2013)

Fine particle pollution over Seoul

Heavy pollution plume transport

China

Korea

New Challenge for Emissions and Air Quality- Winter Haze

GEMS (Geostationary Environmental Monitoring Spectrometer, 2018)배출부문 및 연료의 종류

- Energy sector, Domestic, Industrial combustion, Industrial process, Fuel extraction, Solvents

Road transport, Non-road mobile, Waste management, Agriculture, Other(세부부문: 201개)

- Coal, Heavy fuel oil, , Natural Gas, Electricity 등 (54fuels)

fuel-sector combination

EI inter-comparison : EDGAR/GEIA, HTAP, MICS-Asia, REAS

Opportunities of Emissions Knowledge Improvement

North-Ea

outflow

Continental outflow

lagrangian experim

Transboundary transport &

Megacity plumes

Korea outflow

Megacity profile

Point source &

biogenic source

Field CampaignMAPS-Seoul/GAMBAI (2016)

2018

2014~

2015/2016

Uncertainties : Emissions Inter-comparison

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

INTE

X

REA

S

MIC

S-20

08

MIC

S-20

10

GA

INS

INTE

X

REA

S

MIC

S-20

08

MIC

S-20

10

GA

INS

INTE

X

REA

S

MIC

S-20

08

MIC

S-20

10

GA

INS

INTE

X

REA

S

MIC

S-20

08

MIC

S-20

10

GA

INS

SO2 NOx CO/10 NMVOC

Uni

t: T

g/yr

China Other East Asia(except china) Southeast Asia South Asia

05

1015202530354045

INTE

X

REA

S

MIC

S-20

08

MIC

S-20

10

GA

INS

INTE

X

REA

S

MIC

S-20

08

MIC

S-20

10

GA

INS

INTE

X

REA

S

MIC

S-20

08

MIC

S-20

10

GA

INS

INTE

X

REA

S

MIC

S-20

08

MIC

S-20

10

GA

INS

PM10 PM2.5 BC OC

Uni

t: T

g/yr


2006 2008 2008 2010 2010

CR

EA

TEv1

CR

EA

TEv1

CR

EA

TEv1

CR

EA

TEv1

CR

EA

TEv1

CR

EA

TEv1

CR

EA

TEv1

CR

EA

TEv1

2008

2008 2010

2008 2010

2008 2010

2008 2010

2008

FGD Penetration

SO2 Emissions

Improve Asia Emissions Inventory : CREATE

- Control Technology and Emissions (SO2 and PM10 for China)

0

20

40

60

80

100

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

中国煤电中国脱硫

美国煤电美国脱硫中国脱硫机组比例美国脱硫机组比例

Inst

alla

tion

capa

city

, GW

1000

800

600

400

200

0 Rat

io o

f FG

D in

stal

latio

n, %

Capacity of coal-fired power plants (China) Capacity of FGD installation (China)

Capacity of power plants (US)FGD capacity (US )FGD ratio (China)FGD ratio (US)

S. Wang, 2012

PM10 Emission Factors

PM10 Emissions

- Emissions Change due to 1st and 2nd Phase of SAQMP

1st SAQMP

SO2

Emission Trends for Pre/Post 2010 : Korea

2010

Rem

ainin

gEm

issi

ons

Red

uct

ions

2nd SAQMP

w/o Control

2nd SAQMP

1st SAQMP

w/o Control

20152005 2024

Emissions Evaluation over East Asia- China and Korea

NOx

Kim, S-T, 2014

CAPSS 2007 vs. CAPSS 2010 (Korea)

INTEX-B 2006 vs. MICS-Asia 2010 (China)

NOx NMVOC


Ozone


Emissions Evaluation over East Asia- China and Korea (2015)

0

10

20

30

40

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

NO

Xem

issi

ons

(Mt)

This study-BAU[0]This study-BAU[1]This study-BAU[2]This study-PC[0]This study-PC[1]This study-PC[2]Amann et al. (2008)-current legislationAmann et al. (2008)-advanced control technologyAmann et al. (2008)-optimizedOhara et al. (2007)-policy failureOhara et al. (2007)-best guessOhara et al. (2007)-optimisticXing et al. (2011)-current legislation and implementationXing et al. (2011)-improved energy ef f iciency and current environmental legislationXing et al. (2011)-improved energy ef f iciency and better implementation of environmental policyXing et al. (2011)-improved energy ef f iciency and strict environmental legislationCofala et al. (2007)-current legislationCofala et al. (2007)-maximum feasible reductionCofala et al. (2012)-current policyCofala et al. (2012)-new policyCofala et al. (2012)-high energy ef f iciencyCofala et al. (2012)-450 ppm

0

10

20

30

40

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

NM

VO

C e

mis

sio

ns

(Mt)

This study-BAU[0]

This study-BAU[1]

This study-BAU[2]

This study-PC[0]

This study-PC[1]

This study-PC[2]

Ohara et al. (2007)-policy failure

Ohara et al. (2007)-best guess

Ohara et al. (2007)-optimistic

Xing et al. (2011)-current legislation and implementation

Xing et al. (2011)-improved energy ef f iciency and strict environmental legislation

Wei et al. (2011)-current legislation

Wei et al. (2011)-advanced control measures

Wang et al., ACP, 2014

NOx

NMVOCs

NIER, 2014

China Korea

2010 20152010 2015

NOx

NMVOCs

Summary A new set of energy and emissions scenarios were developed using AIM-Korea. In transport sector, which turns out to be the most important one, the emission differs significantly according to emission scenarios. Thus, technical improvement and energy advancement from fossil fuel to alternative energy are needed

Four different emissions control pathways were set in the GAINS-Korea to assess the effectiveness of SAQMP from emissions reduction and air quality improvement standpoint.

Fast change of emission parameters, such as activities, control measures, make emissions nowcasting more difficult. More stringent control measures is being applied to emission sources in China and Korea, but the air quality improvements are not well realized yet – especially for ozone and fine PM.

The new challenges from transboundary transport and secondary pollution are becoming more important. Bottom-Bottom, Top-Bottom, Measurement-Modeling-Emissions collaboration should be the ways to go

28

Thank you for your attention!

29

Emissions Change for Year 2010- Update of emissions factors and control measures for Korea

: Seoul Air Quality Management Plan (SAQMP)


















Eco- building standards and certification programs Installation of the application for Charbroiling Restaurants




Mobile

AreaSource

AreaSource

PointSource

Point SourceControl Measures

Mobile SourceControl Measures

Area SourceControl Measures

VOC SourceControl Measures

January

April

July

October

MICSR = 0.62

MICSR = 0.76

MICSR = 0.63

MICSR = 0.85

INTEXR = 0.67

INTEXR = 0.83

INTEXR = 0.49

INTEXR = 0.81

- MICS-Asia 2010- INTEX-B 2006




Emissions over SMA(Korea)

CAPSS2006 w Fugitive

CAPSS2010 w Fugitive

CAPSS2009 w/o Fugitive

Emissions Evaluation over East Asia- Haze and PM2.5

05

1015202530354045

INT

EX

RE

AS

MIC

S-20

08

MIC

S-20

10

GA

INS

INT

EX

RE

AS

MIC

S-20

08

MIC

S-20

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GA

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INT

EX

RE

AS

MIC

S-20

08

MIC

S-20

10

GA

INS

INT

EX

PM10 PM2.5 BC

Uni

t: T

g/yr


2006 2008 20102006 2008 2010

Emissions Evaluation over East Asia- China and Korea (2015)

0

5

10

15

20

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

PM

10em

issi

ons

(Mt)

This study-BAU[0]

This study-BAU[1]

This study-BAU[2]

This study-PC[0]

This study-PC[1]

This study-PC[2]

Xing et al. (2011)-current legislation and implementation

Xing et al. (2011)-improved energy ef f iciency and current environmental legisla

Xing et al. (2011)-improved energy ef f iciency and better implementation of envi

Xing et al. (2011)-improved energy ef f iciency and strict environmental legislatio

PM10

China

Korea

(Lee et al., 2014)

Emissions

Model

Emissions Evaluation over East Asia- China

(Lee et al., 2014)

May, 2010

Emissions Evaluation over East Asia- Central Eastern China

35

National Statistics

1. Emission Inventory : Improve GAINS-Asia emissions using

updated national data, MEGAN/BlueSky emissions model

2. Year 2009/2010, Asia regions, ~10000 source categories

3. Pollutants: CO2, CH4, NOx, N2O, PM10, PM2.5, SO2, VOC, NH3,

CO, BC, OC, Mercury

4. Anthropogenic, Biogenic, Biomass burning

5. Emissions processing friendly

* Comprehensive Regional Emissions for Atmospheric Transport Experiments

CREATE* (Asia EI by NIER of Korea)

020406080

100120140160

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Inst

alla

tion

of D

eNO

x te

chno

logy

, GW

SNCR SCR

18% of total coal-fired power (2010)

• Updated regulations, emission factors, and control measures

0.00.20.40.60.81.0

SO2 NOX PM10 PM2.5

Evo

lutio

n of

em

issi

on fa

ctor

s, %

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

0

20

40

60

80

100

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

中国煤电中国脱硫

美国煤电美国脱硫中国脱硫机组比例美国脱硫机组比例

Inst

alla

tion

capa

city

, GW

1000

800

600

400

200

0 Rat

io o

f FG

D in

stal

latio

n, %

Capacity of coal-fired power plants (China) Capacity of FGD installation (China)

Capacity of power plants (US)FGD capacity (US )FGD ratio (China)FGD ratio (US)

S. Wang, 2011

Emissions Change for Year 2010- Update of emissions factors and control measures for China

SO2

NOx

PM

CAE = (EF)(Act) [(1- (CE)(RE)]CAE = Controlled emissionsEF = Uncontrolled emission factorAct = Category activityCE = % Control efficiency/100RE = % Rule effectiveness/100

Power Sector All coal-fired units shall install install F

GD, and the SO2 removal efficiency increase to 90%.

Coal-fired units except CFB boilers shall install denitration technologies.

Upgrade the PM standard(from 50 mg/m3 to 30mg/m3), promote to use ESP+FGD or FAB.

Industrial Boilers Coal-fired boilers great than 2

0 t/h shall use desulfurization technologies.

Upgrade the PM standard(50 mg/m3 for new boilers), promote to use ESP or FAB.

New boilers should install LNB.

Phase out small boilers.

Steel Industry Install desulfurization technologi

es on sintering operations. Upgrade the PM standard, prom

ote to use high-efficiency dedustors (FAB).

Eliminate outdated production capacity.

Cement Industry Install LNB and denitration technol

ogies in precalciner cement kilns. Upgrade the PM standard, promot

e to use high-efficiency dedustors(ESP or FAB).

Eliminate outdated production capacity.

Industrial Kilns Upgrade de-dusting facilities

Transportation Accelerate implementation of fuel and e

mission standards: implement Euro5 vehicle standards.

Scrap the yellow-labeled and old vehicles.

Promote to use new energy vehicles.

Key VOC industries Promote comprehensive treatment

of VOCs in petrochemical industry and chemical industry

Promote leak detection and repair, online monitoring technology in the petrochemical, chemical and other key enterprises.

Promote the use of water-based paint; encourage the production, sale and use of low toxicity, low volatile solvents.Residential Sector

Promote to use clean coal.

• Meteorological data : MM5 (year 2005 from NIER)• Emissions : SMOKE-Asia (Woo et al., 2012) with CAPSS 2009• Air quality model : CAMx version 6.0 with PSAT (the tool for tagging method,

Particulate Source Apportionment Technology)- Model option: EBI chemistry solver with CB05 mechanism, ACM2 diffusion, PP

M advection scheme

Modeling domain Definition of S-R region

Domain 1: 54km

Domain 2: 18km• Receptor (16 regions)Metropolitan cities (7 cities) and provinces (9 regions)• Source (19 regions)Same as receptor regions with outside of S. Korea countries (China, N. Korea and Japan)

Air Quality Modeling Framework for Source-Receptor Analysis

S-R relationship was calculated using CAMx model

37

Outline

1. Introduction

2. Emission Discrepancies and Changes

3. Emissions Evaluation : East Asia and Seoul

4. Summary

Can Seoul Metropolitan Area Air Quality Management Plan(SAQMP) really hit the Target Air Quality by 2025?

Objectives

Explorer possibilities of emission controls and air quality improvements

- What if we haven’t done anything after the baseyear (i.e. year 2010)

- What if we will only do something as we did in the baseyear

- What if we are going to do as we are planning to do

- What if we will do more effort than currently planned

How strong effect does th

Is that polic possible to satis 39

Result : PM2.5 Air Quality of Baseyear(2010)

PM2.5 (Primary) PM2.5 (Secondary)

PM2.5 : 33.8 ug/m3

Result : PM2.5 Air Quality (NFC , CLE)

35.0ug/m3

35.3 ug/m3

NFC2010Secondary

CLE2010Primary

NFC2010Primary

CLE2010Secondary

high emission scenarios

41

Result : PM2.5 Air Quality (SAQMP, MFR)

SAQMPSecondary

MFR2025Primary

SAQMPPrimary

MFR2025Secondary

31.6ug/m3

32.3ug/m3

High reduction scenario has lower influence not only self-region but also out of region.

low emission scenarios

42

Result (SAQMP)- Emissions of All Target Pollutants by Region

35% 54%

28%62% 24%

18%

11%

Gyunggi > SEOUL > Incheon SMA 11%~62% vs other regions

GGDO : GyungGi Do

SUSI : Seoul Si

ICSI : Incheon Si

SMAnon-SMA

SUSI

43

Result : PM2.5 by Component (year 2025)44

PM2.5 SUSI ICSI GGDO Other Korea Korea Sum Other RegionsPrimary 70.9% 57.7% 51.9% 21.8% 46.6% 37.9%

Secondary 29.1% 42.3% 48.1% 78.2% 53.4% 62.1%sulfate 2.2% 13.8% 5.4% 7.3% 7.0% 9.1%nirtrate 10.6% 12.4% 16.7% 47.9% 25.1% 37.7%

ammonium 15.9% 15.7% 25.7% 22.9% 21.1% 14.4%SOA 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 1.0%



ammonium 17.3% 15.3% 24.8% 25.2% 21.6% 14.4%SOA 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 1.0%

NFC2010

SAQMP

MFR202531.6 ug/m3

32.3 ug/m3



ammonium 6.6% 7.5% 12.6% 21.6% 11.7% 14.4%SOA 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.3% 1.0%

35.4 ug/m3

44

Result : PM2.5 Air Quality (Concentration and Percent Contribution Change by Scenario)

NFC2010(%) CLE2010(%)

MFR2025(%)CLE2025(%)

BASE(ug/m3)

MFR2025(%)

Scenario Storyline- demographic change - economic development- technological change - policies

Population Economy

G4Mspatially explicit forest management

model

GLOBIOMintegrated agricultural, bioenergy and forestry model

MESSAGEsystems engineering model (all GHGs and all energy sector

s)

socio-economic drivers

consistency of land-cover changes (spatially explicit maps of agricultural, urban, an

d forest land)

carbon and biomass price

agricultural and forest bioenergy potentia

ls,land-use emissions

and mitigation potential

National level ProjectionsMAGICCsimple climate

model

GAINSGHG and air pollution mitigation model

emissions

air pollution emission coefficients & abatement costs

demandresponse

iteration

MACROAggregated macro-economic mo

del

energy service prices

socio-economic drivers

ESMPOP

MAG ENE (TNT)

ASAMulti-Criteria Anal

ysis Methods

IIASAM. Strubegger, 2014

Emission Pathways by Control Scenario - SMA Air Quality Management Plan(SAQMP)

CLE0

CLE1

CLE2

SAQMP1CAPSS

SO2

No Further Control (NFC)

Current Legislation (CLE)

Maximum Feasible Reduction (MFR)

Base-year Future

Emis

sions

SAQMP2

2010 2024

BAU1

1st SAQMP

2nd SAQMP

2005 2014

Emis

sion

1st Phase 2nd Phase

CAPSS

measure 1measure 2measure 3...

1st Phase 2nd Phase2005 2014 2024

NMVOCs

Result : Emission projection by scenarios Baseyear 2010=100%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

2010 2015 2020 2025 2010 2015 2020 2025 2010 2015 2020 2025 2010 2015 2020 2025

NFC2010 CLE2010 CLE2025 MFR2025

NOx SO2 PM10 PM2.5 VOCSAQMP

2nd will be planned more strict policy with more a

ggressive technology1st Phase

2nd Phase

the pathway of emission by scenario

48

Overall, it is estimated that the NOx emissions are underestimated by 57.3% in North China and overestimated by 46.1% in South Korea over an entire year

Han et al., ACP 2009

Uncertainty of Emissions Estimation

CMAQ with 2001 TRACE-P emission inventory vs GOME-derived NO2

The overall uncertainties in 2006 INTEX-B Asian emission: ±16% (SO2), ±37% (NOx), ±130% (NMVOC), ±185% (CO), ±360% (BC), ±450% (OC).

Zhang et al., ACP 2009

Uncertainties of REAS2.1 emissions in China/India/therest of Asian countries : ±31/32/35% (SO2), ±37/49/47% (NOx), ±78/137/111% (NMVOC), ±86/114/131% (CO), ±176/178/257% (BC), ±271/233/286% (OC)

Kurokawa et al., ACP 2013

Overall Uncertainty in Anthropogenic Emission Estimates (±95% Confidence Intervals, Unit: %).

Streets et al., JGR, (2003).

Uncertainties of CREATE emissions in China: ±28% (SO2), ±39% (NOx), ±68 (NMVOC), ±60% (CO), ±101% (NH3), ±50% (PM10), ±54% (PM2.5)

NIER, 2013

Future Emissions of Air Pollutants and Greenhouse Gases ... · PDF fileFuture Emissions of Air...

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