Øystein HovNorwegian Meteorological Institute, MSC-W, UiO

chair OPAG EPAC of CAS (WMO)EMEP TFHTAP Brussels 15 June 2010

Future Directions for Global and Hemispheric Cooperation –

the role of WMO

Moisture, precipitationHeatMomentum

CO2 and other GHGsPM physical and chemical

characterisationHalocarbons and SF 6NOxNH3VOCCOSO2

HMPOP

Weather (incremental improvements in NWP)

Radiative forcing - climate response UNFCCC (§ co-benefits and tradeoffs; seasonal to decadal)Air quality – health National and regional regulations §Acid deposition – ecosystems CLRTAP to global §Eutrophication – ecosystems CLRTAP to global §BDCVisibility incl sand and dust storms (GAW, WWRP)Surface ozone – crop loss CLRTAP to global §UV – health and crops Vienna Convention

Water availability and quality §

Biodiversity BDC §

Agriculture/food §

Fluxes between the Earth’ssurface and theatmosphere

Protect life and property, safeguard the environment,contribute to sustainable development, promotelong-term observation of met., hydrological, climatological data, incl related environmental data, promote capacity-building, meet internlcommitments

§ significant gains can be made through WMO contributions

WMO between operations, policy and research

Atmospheric composition and health; ecosystems impact; climate change -the cycling of greenhouse gases and interaction with AQ i ncl SLCF; N rcycling; NWP improvement; sand and dust storms (CLR TAP; EU; IPCC; Nitrogen initiative) (WMO Executive Council Task Team (EC-RTT) report Ap ril 2009)

Summing up

EC-RTT + GAW recommendations• GAW is mature but resource strapped

• WMO should ensure that the capabilities related to meteorological observations, research models, and operationsare used to

– Link regional air pollution issues together in a global perspective

– Air quality forecasting

– NRT AMDAR like observations of chemical composition incl H2O

– Air pollution and climate change interact both ways

– Water cycle – water as a resource and a carrier of pollutants/nutrients

– The reactive nitrogen issue

• NMHS’s are under financial pressure. WMO member countriesanyhow face these problematic issues and need to addressthem through the institutions they have.

• NMHS’s and WMO are very well positioned through thecapacity to observe, do research incl develop and apply models, operationalise, verify/validate, disseminate and reach out

CAS agrees that

• changes in air pollution, climate and the biogeochemical cycles of trace chemicals in the atmosphere such as carbon and reactive nitrogen give rise to environmental problems. Meteorological processes often strongly influence their severity and rate of change.

• The analysis and abatement of these problems requires an interdisciplinary approach both nationally and internationally.

• The Commission urges WMO and its partners to intensify efforts to develop appropriate partnerships across disciplines nationally and internationally to address these challenges.

• The Commission agrees that it is important to develop a common understanding of air pollution, its health impacts, its long range transmission and the interaction with weather and climate change.

• The Commission agrees that many international conventions and initiatives would benefit greatly from a common approach developed with the help of WMO and its partners nationally and internationally. – the WMO co-sponsored Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC),

– the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC),

– the WMO-UNEP supported Vienna Convention on Protection of the Ozone Layer,

– the Reactive Nitrogen Initiative, the Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS) and its European component Global Monitoring for Environment and Security (GMES),

– the Convention for the Long Range Transmission of Air Pollutants (CLRTAP), the Malédeclaration and others.

8.3.4 Recommendation: WMO Members, including NMHSs and

their national partners in other agencies and the WMO

Secretariat, play a leading role in enhancing environmental

observations, predictions and services and should:

• Strengthen observations to support multiple scale air quality prediction. NRT data delivery.

• Lead a global partnership to link globally the technical work on the regional/continental long range transport of air pollution. Includes delivery of environmental data for day-to-day assessment of the long (and very long) range transport of air pollution; hindcast analysis and scenario calculations. NRT of observations and forecasting.

• Provide quantitative information on carbon dioxide emissions through GAW (recognized as the comprehensive network of the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS)). Support research as basis for a global carbon tracking system. DA, NWP, deduce net atmosphere/Earth surface carbon exchange and estimates of uncertainties;

• Support the analysis of the reactive nitrogen cycle to advise and build capacity to minimize reactive nitrogen loss to waterways and to the atmosphere, while the use of reactive nitrogen fertilizer is enhanced in regions where food production is nitrogen deficient;

• Take the lead in the technical analysis of how climate variability and change and air pollution interact both ways on a regional basis, and in combination on a global basis.

• These are issues of immediate concern throughout the world affecting societies to an extent that is not well known but could be significant (air pollution events, floods, droughts; water supply, food supply etc.).

Integrated approach for all WMO Programmes to provide the RIGHT INFORMATION to the RIGHT PLACE at the RIGHT TIME through:

• Routine collection and dissemination of time-critical and operations-critical data and products

• Data Discovery, Access and Retrieval service

• Timely delivery of data and products

• Unified procedures

• Coordinated and standardized metadata

• External access (especially for metadata)

WIS Vision

GAW World Data Centres

GCOS Data Centres

Global Run-off Data Centre

Global Precip. Climatology Centre

IRI, Hadley Centre, and other climate research centres; Universities;Regional Climate Centres(CIIFEN, etc.)

International Organizations (IAEA, CTBTO, UNEP, FAO.. )

Commercial Service Providers

World Radiation Centre

Regional Instrument Centres

WMO World Data Centres

International Projects (e.g. GMES HALO)

Real-time “push”

On-demand “pull”

internet

DCPC

NC/NC/NC/NC/DCPCDCPCDCPCDCPC

NCNCNCNCNC

NC/NC/NC/NC/DCPCDCPCDCPCDCPC

NCNCNCNC

NCNCNCNC

NCNCNCNC

NCNCNCNC

NCNCNCNC

NCNCNCNC

GISCGISCGISCGISC

GISCGISCGISCGISCGISCGISCGISCGISC

SatelliteTwo-Way Systems

Satellite Dissemination(IGDDS, RETIM,

etc)

NCNCNCNC

NCNCNCNC

DCPC

GISCGISCGISCGISC GISCGISCGISCGISC

DCPC

WIS VisionWIS Vision

UNECE CLRTAP (1979)

http://www.unece.org/env/lrtap/full%20text/1979.CLRTAP.e.pdf

§1:• "Air Pollution" means the introduction by man, directly or

indirectly, of substances or energy into the air resulting in

deleterious effects of such a nature as to endanger human health,

harm living resources and ecosystems and material property and

impair or interfere with amenities and other legitimate uses of

the environment, and "air pollutants" shall be construed

accordingly;

• "Long-range transboundary air pollution" means air pollution

whose physical origin is situated wholly or in part within the area

under the national jurisdiction of one State and which has

adverse effects in the area under the jurisdiction of another State

at such a distance that it is not generally possible to distinguish

the contribution of individual emission sources or groups of

sources.

Science issues in the revised strategy (1)

Keep the Generic science goal of EMEP

• State and trends in acidification, eutrophication, surface ozone, PM, HM,

POPs

• Emission and trends, compliance

• Transboundary source-receptor-relationships

• Ecosystem recovery

• Overall assessment and policy advice

Air pollution changes with climate

• 2010-2050: climate variability and change; consequences for atmospheric

composition. Migration. Megacities. Exposed regions

• Climate change adaptation will change energy consumption emissions

(renewables including biofuels).

• Long range transport of radiative forcing

Science issues in the revised strategy (2)

Air quality and its effect on the population

• Linking of scales. Transboundary component of population exposure

• PM: physical and chemical characterization. Health effects (WHO)

• POPs: identify new POPs, their cycle and impact

• Biogeochemical cycle of Hg

Atmospheric physical and biological processes

• Fluxes soil-atmosphere, ocean-atmosphere

• Reactive nitrogen cycle

• Air pollution and the carbon cycle

Overall assessment and scenarios

• Co-benefits air pollution/air quality – climate – reactive nitrogen

• Optimisation, sensitivity studies, scenario analysis as approaches to the

testing of alternative policy measures

Claire Granier, CNRS

Globalisation of economies and emissions

Artic Ocean

Atlantic Ocean

Pacific Ocean

Slovenia

Hungary

Slovakia

Poland

Lithuania

Latvia

Estonia

Finland

Sweden

Georgia

Norway

Belarus

Czech Rep. Ukraine

Denmark

Moldova

Germany

Yugoslavia

Austria

Bulgaria

Liechtenstein

Turkey

Italy

Monaco

Cyprus

Switzerland

Malta

Netherlands

Greece

Belgium

F.Y.R.ofMacedonia

Luxembourg

Albania

France

Bosnia andHerzegovina

Spain

Croatia

Portugal

IrelandUnited Kingdom

Romania

Russian Federation

Iceland

Kara SeaBarents Sea

North Sea

Atlantic Ocean

Mediterranean Sea

Black Sea Caspian Sea

Aral Sea

Canada

of America

Kyrgyzstan

Kazakhstan

AzerbaijanArmenia

Uzbekistan

Turkmenistan Tajikistan

Reduced N

deposition

4,99 MtN

98%

Oxidised N

deposition

5,10 MtN

86%

S dep

8,88 MtS

89%

NH3

emissions

5,08 MtN

NOx

emissions

5,92 MtN

SO2

emissions

10,00 MtS

RECOM-MEN-DATION:

LINK REGIONS TOGETHER

GAW Global Aerosol Network Status

China Atmos. Watch Network

Source: Zhang Xiao-Ye

• Many undersampledregions, many sampling sites not in database

• SAG is working to recruit contributing networks and to update database

GAWSIS

EMEP model calculations with constant emissions 30t/s of mineral ashfrom 2000-2006, 28% by mass as PM2.5, 72% in the coar se fraction. DJF average for 2000-2006.

Climate change ó air pollution

• Climate change modifies pdf’s of physical and dynamicalvariables that determine atmospheric composition

• Modifications of atmosphere-surface interaction, in particularat the terrestrial surface, important

• Earth system models only account for a small fraction ofimportant feedbacks and in highly parameterised ways

• Climate change – air pollution tradeoffs and cobenefits, – measurement programmes are required in particular for fluxes

between the terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere– Process oriented earth system models need development

• The climate change – air pollution feedbacks can be veryimportant

• Aerosol emissions 1990-2002 cooled climate -0.7°C (Prather, Penner, et al., 2009). Kyoto gases warmed 0.3°C (emissions prior to 1990 warmed by 0.6°C)

NorESMStandard run withoutvolcanicemissions leftcolumn,

High emissions(200t/s mineral ash, 1tS/s SO2) right column

Verticalcolumns ofmineral ash, SO2 and sulphateaerosols

2m temperature after one year of high ash and SO2 emission s (200t/s and 1tS/s, respectively)

NorESM high emissions (200t/s mineral ash, 1tS/s of SO2 ), end of emission year (year 1), difference from no emission (standard) run

IPCC AR4 WG1 ch7

Black line - annual T change relative to 1961-1990 up t o 2000, blue line – GHG and PM constant at 2000 levels , red line – GHG constant at 2000 level, PM zero

Observational NeedsØChemical ØMeteorological

Modeling Needs ØWeather predictionØChemical weather and air quality prediction

Air Quality & Related ProductsØ Improved ForecastsØGuidelinesØPilot Projects

UsersØHealth ØAgriculture ØEnvironmentalØPublicØEmergency Response

Capacity BuildingØWorkshopsØ Training

Assimilation

Dissemination

Coordination

Education

Demonstration

(Tasks: 13,14)

(Tasks: 9-12)

(Tasks: 15-18)

(Tasks: 1-4) (Tasks: 5-8)

Urbanisation air pollution health GAW - GURME

RECOMMENDATION: AQ FORECASTING

MOZAIC Data (1994-2009)

Ø 1994-2001: 17714 flights with O3 & H2O

Ø 2002-2008: 13411 additional flights

Ø with CO (on 4 (now 3) aircraft, 2002-2009)

Ø with NOy (on 1 aircraft, 2001-2007)

High resolution vertical

profiles during take-off and

landing (~ 20m)

High horizontal resolution at

cruise altitude (~ 1 km)

Regular measurements with

5 aircraft flying

almost every day

Three aircraft still in service

(2 Lufthansa, 1 Air Namibia)

More than 120 publications withMOZAIC data

RECOMMENDATION: NRT AMDAR-LIKE CHEMICAL COMPOSITION OBSERVATIONS INCL H 2O

6/24/2010

Challenges for Networks• Increased coordination within each type of

network– measured parameters

– sampling protocols, QA/QC, data processing

– find partners in undersampled regions

• Provide information on measurements to a common database– e.g., GAWSIS

– need to keep information up-to-date

• Provide data in a common format to users– increase percentage of stations submitting data

– not necessary to have a common data center

6/24/2010

Challenges for Integration• Enhanced interaction of the data generation and

assimilation/modelling communities• Coordination among different types of

measurements

• Development of re-analysis products for combining different types of measurements– surface-based in-situ

– surface-based remote sensing– satellite-based remote sensing

– radiation budget

The atmospheric lower boundary is more than a surface

Indirect and direct radiative forcings from tropospheric ozone

Sitch et al. (Nature, 2007)

Symbols are directforcings (IPCC, 2001)

Blue and red curvesare indirect ozoneforcing, due to ozoneimpacts on vegetation(high ozone sensitivity)(low ozone sensitivity)

Suggests that the indirect forcing maybe similar in magnitude to the direct forcing.

RECOMMENDATION: AIR POLLUTION óóóó CLIMATE/WEATHER

Water stress

Changes in water yield in Europe(Eurowasser project)

met.no strategy seminar met.no strategy seminar met.no strategy seminar met.no strategy seminar KlækkenKlækkenKlækkenKlækken 2007200720072007----10101010----30303030

Cryosphere

Water cycle system

Surface

Groundwater

Lithosphere

Precip EvapEvap

Unsaturatedzone

Riversystem

atmosphere over land atmosphere over ocean

Oceans

Shortwaveradiation

Longwaveradiation

Shortwaveradiation

Longwaveradiation

Precip Evap

RECOMMENDATION: WATER CYCLE - WATER AS A RESOURCE AND CARRIER OF POLLUTANTS/NUTRIENTS

[Title]

[Lecturer], [Date]

C

An integrated approach to Nitrogen pollution

FCCC

CLRTAPNEC Dir.

AQ Directive

Directiveson emissioncontrol

Manure Manure Manure Manure

CombustionCombustionCombustionCombustion

Soil NOSoil NOSoil NOSoil NO 3333 NNNN2222OOOO

Effects on ecosystems Effects on ecosystems Effects on ecosystems Effects on ecosystems o.a. o.a. o.a. o.a. decrease indecrease indecrease indecrease inbiodiversitybiodiversitybiodiversitybiodiversity

Effects on materials Effects on materials Effects on materials Effects on materials and cultural heritage and cultural heritage and cultural heritage and cultural heritage

Climate changeClimate changeClimate changeClimate change

Effects on human and Effects on human and Effects on human and Effects on human and animal health animal health animal health animal health

NHNHNHNH3333

NHNHNHNH4444NONONONO3333

HNOHNOHNOHNO3333

NONONONOxxxx

FertilizerFertilizerFertilizerFertilizerindustryindustryindustryindustry

COCOCOCO2222, , , , CHCHCHCH4444,,,,SFSFSFSF6666, HFK, , HFK, , HFK, , HFK, PFK, ..PFK, ..PFK, ..PFK, ..

SOSOSOSO2222, (, (, (, (NHNHNHNH4444))))2222SO4SO4SO4SO4NNNN2222

Aquatic NO 3

Nitrate DirectiveWater Directive

CBD ?

RECOMMENDATION: THE REACTIVE NITROGEN CYCLE

34WMO CASXV Incheon Republic of Korea 18-25 November 2 009

35WMO CASXV Incheon Republic of Korea 18-25 November 2 009

àààà Observations:

GAW Global Stations

180oW 120oW 60oW 0o 60oE 120oE 180oW

80oS

40oS

0o

40oN

80oN

Mill

er p

roje

ctio

n -

GA

WS

IS 2

.1 (

c) 2

003

Em

pa, Q

A/S

AC

Sw

itzer

land

JungfraujochZugspitze-Hohenpeissenberg Mt. Waliguan

Minamitorishima

Bukit Koto Tabang

Danum Valley

Cape Grim

Lauder

Neumayer

Ushuaia

Amsterdam Is.Cape Point

Arembepe

Pallas-Sodankylä

Zeppelin Mountain/Ny Ålesund

Alert

Point Barrow

Mauna Loa

Samoa

Izaña Assekrem-Tamanrasset

Mt. Kenya

Mace Head

South Pole

36WMO CASXV Incheon Republic of Korea 18-25 November 2 009

Thank you for your attention