Future Agenda The world in 2025 - Final
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TheWorldin2025InsightsfromMul0pleExpertDiscussions25February2016 Theworld’sleadingopenforesightprogram
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TheWorldin2025Thisdocumentprovidesasummaryofwhatweheardfrommul0pleexpertvoicesaroundtheworld–onhowitischanging,whatisdrivingthischange,wherewillbetheimpactsandwhythesemayevolveoverthenextdecade.
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FutureAgendaTheFutureAgendaistheworld’slargestopenforesightprogram
thataccessesmul0pleviewsofthenextdecadesowecanallbebeIerinformedands0mulateinnova0on.
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LookingForwardsOrganisa0onsincreasinglywanttoiden0fyandunderstand
boththean0cipatedandunexpectedchangessothattheycanbebeIerpreparedforthefuture.
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FutureAgenda1.0TopInsightsfor2020Fromthe2010program,52keyinsightsonthenextdecadeweresharedwidelyandhavebeenextensivelyusedbyorganisa0onsaroundtheworld.
FutureAgendabecametheworld’slargestopenforesightplaLorm.
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FutureAgendainNumbersThefirstFutureAgendaprogrammeengagedawiderangeofviewsin
25countries.FutureAgenda2.0hasdoubledtheface-to-faceinterac0onandsignificantlyraisedonlinesharing,debateanddiscussion.
FutureAgenda1.01HOST16TOPICS25COUNTRIES50WORKSHOPS1500ORGANISATIONS
FutureAgenda2.050HOSTS24TOPICS35COUNTRIES120WORKSHOPS5000ORGANISATIONS
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FutureAgenda2.0TopicsThesecondversionoftheFutureAgendaprogramtookplace
during2015andhasbeenaddressing24topicsvia120eventsin45ci0esin35countriesinpartnershipwith50corehosts.
Ci0es
Educa0on
Learning
Transport
Collabora0on
Energy
Loyalty
Travel
Company
Faith
Payments
Water
Connec0vity
Food
Privacy
Wealth
Currency
Government
Resources
Work
Ageing
Data
Health
Trade
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EightKeyThemesAcrossthemul0plediscussions,60emergingissuesaretouching
uponandconnec0ngwitheightunderlying,andinterwoven,themeswithdifferentemphasisindifferentcountries.Thesearedetailedbelow.
TheCertainOes
InterconnectedSystems
TheDataRevoluOon
UnequalAccess
OurHabitat
BeliefsandBelonging
PowerandInfluence
ChangingBusiness
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TheCertainOes
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EverythingConnectedOver1trillionsensorsareconnectedtomul0plenetworks:everythingthatcanbenefitfromaconnec0onhasone.Wedeliver10,000xmoredata100xmoreeffec0velybutareconcernedaboutthesecurityoftheinforma0onthatflows.
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ImbalancedPopulaOonGrowthAgrowingpopula0onaddsanotherbillionpeoplebutitisalsorapidlyageing:achildbornnextyearwilllive6monthslongerthanoneborntoday.Whilemigra0onhelpstorebalance,increasingdependencyra0oschallengemany.
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KeyResourceConstraintsEconomic,physicalandpoli0calshortagesofkeyresourcesincreaseanddriveincreasingtensionbetweenandwithincountries.AsweexceedtheEarth’snaturalthresholds,foodandwaterreceiveasmuchfocusasoilandgas.
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ShiUingPowerandInfluenceThecentreofgravityofeconomicpowercon0nuesshi_ingeastwards,backtowhereitwas200yearsago.Recentsuperpowersseektomoderatethepaceofchangebutthereali0esofpopula0onandresourceloca0onsareimmoveable.
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InterconnectedSystems
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AffordableHealthcareTheescala0ngcostofhealthcareisfurtherstressedbytheneedtosupporttheoldandthechronicallyill.Spending20%ofGDPonhealthcareisseenasunsustainablesoharddecisionsaretakenaroundbudgetsandpriori0es.
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AirQualityRisingairpollu0oninmanyci0esiskillingpeopleandbecomesavisiblecatalystforchangingmind-setsandpoliciesacross
health,energy,transporta0onandurbandesign.
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AutonomousVehiclesTheshi_tofullyautonomoustransportisanevolu0onviatruckplatoonsonhighwaysandsmallurbandeliverypods.Connectedcarscreatethenetworkandtestthetechnologiesfortheeventualrevolu0onarydriverlessexperience.
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DeeperCollaboraOonPartnershipsshi_tobecomemoredynamic,long-term,democra0sed,
mul0-partycollabora0ons.Compe0toralliancesandwiderpublicpar0cipa0ondriveregulatorstocreatenewlegalframeworksforopen,empathe0ccollabora0on.
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EnergyStorageStorage,andpar0cularlyelectricitystorage,isthemissingpieceintherenewablesjigsaw.Ifsolved,itcanenabletrulydistributedsolar
energyaswellasacceleratetheelectrifica0onofthetransportindustry.
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FoodWaste30-50%ofourfoodiswastedeitherinthesupplychainorinconsump0onandcouldfeedanother3billion.Op0misingdistribu0onandstorageindevelopingcountriesandenablingbeIerconsumerinforma0oninotherscouldsolvethis.
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IntraCityCollaboraOonIncreasingcompe00onbetweenci0esoverridesna0onalboundariesanddrives
change.TheycompetetoaIractthebestbutalsocollaboratetoavoidthedownsideofsuccess–over-crowding,under-resourcingandpollu0on.
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OpenSupplyWebsTheshi_fromcentralisedproduc0ontodecentralisedmanufacturingdrivesmanytotakea‘smalleranddistributed’approach:globalsupplychainsarereplacedbymoreregional,consumer-orientatedsupplywebsandnetworks.
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UrbanObesityMassurbanisa0on,reducedac0vityandpoordietsareaccelera0ngtheriseofobesity.Levelsofobesityinmostci0esaregrowingfastandtheassociatedhealthcareburdenwillsoonaccountfor5%ofglobalGDP.
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TheDataRevoluOon
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DataOwnershipIndividualsrecognizethevalueoftheirdigitalshadows,privacyagentscurateclients’datasetswhilepersonaldatastoresgiveustransparentcontrolofourinforma0on:Weretainmoreownershipofourdataandopttoshareit.
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EnhancedPerformanceWearedevelopingkeytechnologiesthatcouldintegratehumans
anddatatomakeussafer,moreinformedandpoten0allysuper-humaninperformance-butshouldwe?
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EthicalMachinesAutoma0onspreadsbeyondtradingandmanagingsystemicrisk.Asweapproachtechnologysingularity,autonomousrobotsand
smarteralgorithmsmakeethicaljudgmentsthatimpactlifeordeath.
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PrivacyRegulaOonThepushtowardsglobalstandards,protocolsandgreatertransparency
isafocusformanyna0onsdrivingproac0veregula0on,butotherschoosetoopt-outofinterna0onalagreementsandgotheirownway.
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TheChangingNatureofPrivacyAsprivacyisapublicissue,moreinterna0onalframeworksseektogoverntheInternet,protectthevulnerableandsecurepersonaldata:Thebalancebetween
protec0on,security,privacyandpublicgoodisincreasinglypoli0cal.
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TheValueofDataAsorganisa0onstrytoretainasmuchinforma0onabouttheircustomersaspossible,databecomesacurrencywithavalueandaprice.Ittherefore
requiresamarketplacewhereanythingthatisinforma0onisrepresented.
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TruthandIllusionTheInternethasdemocra0sedknowledgeandchangedthenatureofwhowetrustandwhy.Asconfidenceinlargeorganisa0onsdeclinesthesearchfortrustworthy
alterna0vesevolves.Whatwebelieveischanginghowwebehave.
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UnequalAccess
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AccesstoTransportThewidespreadneedforindividualstotravelshortdistancesbecomesakeyfeatureofurbandesignandregenera0on.Plannersusetransport
infrastructuretoinfluencesocialchangeandlowercarbonliving.
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CapitalismChallengeUnabletoshakeissueslikeinequality,capitalistsocie0esfacecriesforchange,structuralchallengesandtechnologyenabledfreedoms.Togetherthesere-write
therulesandproposeacollabora0velandscapeofallworkingtogether.
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CaringforThoseLeUBehindAlthoughsignificantprogresshasbeenmadeposi0vechangehaslimitedreach.
Millionsofpeoplecon0nuetobele_behindfrommainsteamprogress-especiallytheyoung,thepoorandthosewhoaredisadvantaged
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EducaOonRevoluOonBroaderaccesstoimprovededuca0onactsasamajorcatalystfor
empowerment,sustainedeconomicgrowth,overcominginequalityandreducingconflict.Weneedaneduca0onsystemfitforthedigitalrevolu0on.
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MassEngagementAsthepublicvoicebecomeseasiertoaccessandhardertosuppress,leadersseektoengagetocreate,develop,secureandmaintainlegi0macyfortheir
ini0a0vesandpolicies–sofurtherreducingtheirhierarchicalpower.
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Off-GridPeoplelivingoff-grid,byinequalityorchoice,canexacerbatesocietaldivisionorimproveprivacy,healthandwellbeing.Eitherway,doingsoprovidesfer0legroundforinnova0on.
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RisingYouthUnemploymentWithunemploymentratesover50%insomena0ons,accesstoworkisarisingbarrier.EspeciallyacrossNorthAfrica,theMiddleEastandsouthernEurope,alostgenera0onof100myoungpeoplefailstogainfromglobalgrowth.
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ShrinkingMiddleWhiletheglobalmiddleclassgrows,intheWestincreasinginequalityforsomedrivesarela0vedeclineinmiddle-incomepopula0ons.Coupledwith
theerosionofsecurejobs,theUSinpar0cularseesasteadilyshrinkingmiddle.
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OurHabitat
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AcceleraOngDisplacementClimatechange,conflict,resourceshortages,inequalityandpoli0calelitesunableorunwillingtobringaboutnecessarychangealltriggerunprecedentedmigra0ontotheNorth.Overthenext50years,asmanyas1billionpeoplecouldbeonthemove.
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BasicSanitaOonPoorsanita0oncon0nuestoimpactpublichealthandrestrictsocialprogress,
par0cularlyforwomen.Governmentsanddonororganisa0onspriori0semeasurement,educa0onandinnova0oninabidtodrivechange.
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Built-inFlexibilityThepathtoaconnected,accessibleanddistributedinfrastructureisfraughtwithcomplex,costlyandriskyissues:Upgradingandrepurposingsystemstomakethemmoreopenpluson-goingmaintenanceneedsignificantresources.
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CiOzen-CentricCiOesSuccessfulci0eswillbedesignedaroundtheneedsanddesiresofincreasinglyempoweredandenabledci0zens-whoareexpec0ngpersonalizedservicesfromtheorganisa0onsthatservethem.
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FloodedCiOesThevastmajorityofourci0esarenotpreparedforflooding.Manydistrictsandhouseholdscannolongergetfloodinsuranceandareinjeopardy.
It’sgoingtogetworsebeforeitgetsbeIer.
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InfrastructureDeficitInfrastructureagainbecomesasourceofcompe00veadvantage.Emerging
economiesinvestinnewrailroadsandhighwaysformoreeffec0vemovementofpeopleandgoods,whiledevelopedna0onssufferfrompoorlegacy.
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Nature’sCapitalIntheAnthropocene,humankindispresidingoverthe
Earth'ssixthmajorex0nc0on.Butasbiodiversitydeclines,naturebecomesincreasinglyvaluedandvaluable.
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PlasOcOceansThereareincreasinghighlevelsofman-madepollu0oninmanyoftheworld’sseasandliIleactuallydisappears.
By2050therewillbemoreplas0cthanfishintheworld’soceans.
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SomeOmesNomadsElec0vemigra0on,cheaptravel,interna0onalknowledgesharingand
increasinglytransientworkingmodelscreateconnectednomadswhomixthetradi0onsofhomewiththevaluesandcustomsoftheirhostloca0on.
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BeliefsandBelonging
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AgelessnessAperson’sphysicalagebecomeslessimportantassocietyadaptstothenewdemographiclandscape.Newopportuni0esariseforcreatorsandconsumersofallages,thoughbenefitsareo_enonlyforthewealthy.
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CareintheCommunityThedesireto‘age-in-place’meetsahealthcarereformagendathatpromotesdecentraliza0on.Anewcaremodeliscustomer-centric,caregiver-focusedandenhancescoordina0onacrosscaresehngs.
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FemaleChoiceDilemmaWomeninrichereconomieshavegreaterchoice,andwithitincreased
controlandinfluence.Thiscon0nuestodrivechangeanddecision-makingbutgloballythebaIleforfemaleequalityhasalongroadtotravel.
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HumanTouchAsserviceprovisionandconsump0onbecomesevermoredigital,automatedandalgorithmic,thosebrandsthatcanoffermoreemo0onalengagement
andhuman-to-humancontactbecomeincreasinglyaIrac0ve.
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KeepingTheFaithAspeoplemovetheytaketheirbeliefswiththem.Formany,religionisoneofthefewremainingaspectsoftheirpreviouslife,keytotheiriden0ty-strongerthan
theci0zenshipoftheiradoptedcountryorthena0ontheyle_behind.
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WorkingLongerPeoplearehavingtoworkforlongertosupportlongerre0rements.
Flexibleworkingprac0cesandpoliciesareemerging,butsomeemployerscon0nuetoremainambivalentaboutolderworkers.
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PowerandInfluence
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AfricaGrowthWithalandmassbiggerthanIndia,China,theUSandEuropecombined,fewdoubtthescaleoftheAfricancon0nentanditsresources.However,un0l
recently,onlysomehaveseenitasthegrowthmarketthatitisfastbecoming.
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CompanieswithPurposeAstrustin‘business’declines,structuresandprac0cesoflargecorpora0onsareunderscru0ny.Businessescomeundergreaterpressuretoimprove
performanceonenvironmental,socialandgovernanceissues.
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DecliningGovernmentInfluenceNa0onalgovernments’abilitytoleadchangecomesundergreaterpressurefrombothaboveandbelow-mul0na0onalorganisa0onsincreasinglysettheruleswhileci0zenstrustandsupportlocalandnetworkbasedac0ons.
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Eco-CivilisaOonOverthepast40yearsChinahasgrownapace,mostlywithoutconcernfor
long-termenvironmentalimpacts.However,nowfacedwithmajorchallenges,abrightlightofsustainabledevelopmentisemerging.
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RiseofNimbyGlobalisa0onoftradeandtravel,withgeopoli0calshi_sfromNorthtoSouthand
fromWesttoEast,havedeliveredmanybenefitsforsome-butarecausingclashesofculturesandaperspec0veofpoli0calretrenchmentforothers.
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RiseoftheCultofChinaAsChina’seconomicinfluenceontheworldincreasesthereisariseinthecultofChinainpopularimagina0onselsewhere.MythsofbothhopeandfearwillproliferateasChina’sculturalinfluenceincreases.
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StandardsDrivingTradeInterna0onalregula0onisprogressivelyaimedatfreeinguptradeandmaking
itsimplerandlessbureaucra0c–butthereareanumberofagreements,standardsandprotocolsthatsomeareseeingasincreasinglyconstraining.
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SOllBeingStupidDespiteabeIerunderstandingofthelong-termchallengesweface,
weindividuallyandcollec0velycon0nuetomakedecisionsthatmaymakesenseintheshort-term-butdonotleadtobeIerlonger-termconsequences.
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ChangingBusiness
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CreaOveEconomyThecrea0veeconomyhelpstobuildinclusiveandsustainablecultures.What’smore,itgenerateswealth.Tobuildscaleitrequiresaworkforce
comfortablewithcollabora0on,cri0calthinkingandtheabilitytotakearisk.
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CurrenciesofMeaningNewtrustedcurrenciesofexchangeandmeaningemergeto
facilitatetransac0ons,trade,authen0ca0onandvalida0on.MoneyiscomplementedbynewsystemstowhichweaIachgreatersignificance.
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DigitalMoneyCashcon0nuestobegraduallyreplacedbydigitalmoney,providing
consumerswithmoreconvenienceandchoice–andorganisa0onswithlowercosttransac0ons.Wideradop0onenablesnewofferstoproliferate.
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DynamicPricingThealgorithmsofAmazonandUbercrossovertoaffectmorebusinesses,
fromenergyusetoparking.Real-0metransparencyallowsbeIerpurchasingatthesame0measmarginsandyieldsareautoma0callyenhanced.
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FullCostIncreasingtransparencyofsociety’srelianceonnature,intensify
requirementsforbusinesstopaythetruecostoftheresourcesprovidedby‘naturalcapital’andsocompensatefortheirnega0veimpactonsociety.
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OpOmisingLastMileDeliverySeamless,integratedandsharedlast-miledeliveryreplacesinefficient
compe00onandduplica0onofgoodsdistribu0on.Greaterefficiencyinmovingthingsisasimportantasinmovingpeopleandsoamajorfocusforinnova0on.
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OrganisaOon3.0NewformsofflaIer,project-based,collabora0ve,virtual,informal
organisa0onsdominate-enabledbytechnologyandamobileworkforce.Assuchthenatureofworkandtheroleoftheorganisa0onblurs.
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SkillsConcentraOonsTheneedtobuildanddevelopcapabili0esbecomesincreasinglychallengingforcompaniesandworkersalike.Thosewhobenefitfromthehigh-skillrewardopportuni0esremainaselectgroupwhomoveaheadoftheurbanpack.
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SpeedtoScaleGreaterglobalconnec0vity,growingconsumerwealthandbroaderreachallcombinetoacceleratethe0meto1bncustomersanda$10bnvalua0onforstart-upsandnewcorporateventuresalike.
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TheRealSharingEconomyIncreasingcollabora0ondrivesorganisa0onstoreconfigurebasedonsocialnetworksandimpact.Realsharingenterprises,notdrivenbyprofits,seek
toshareresources,knowledge,anddecision-makingresponsibili0es.
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