Fundamentals of Corporate Finance/3e,ch11
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Transcript of Fundamentals of Corporate Finance/3e,ch11
Copyright 2004 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd PPTs t/a Fundamentals of Corporate Finance 3e Ross, Thompson, Christensen, Westerfield and JordanSlides prepared by Sue Wright
11-1
Chapter Eleven
Return, Risk and the Security
Market Line
Copyright 2004 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd PPTs t/a Fundamentals of Corporate Finance 3e Ross, Thompson, Christensen, Westerfield and JordanSlides prepared by Sue Wright
11-2
11.1 Expected Returns and Variances
11.2 Portfolios
11.3 Announcements, Surprises and Expected Returns
11.4 Risk: Systematic and Non-systematic
11.5 Diversification and Portfolio Risk
11.6 Systematic Risk and Beta
11.7 The Security Market Line
11.8 The Capital Market Line
11.9 Portfolio Characteristics
11.10 The SML and the Cost of Capital: A Preview
Chapter Organisation
Copyright 2004 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd PPTs t/a Fundamentals of Corporate Finance 3e Ross, Thompson, Christensen, Westerfield and JordanSlides prepared by Sue Wright
11-3
11.11 Problems with the CAPM
11.12 Summary and Conclusions
Chapter Organisation (continued)
Copyright 2004 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd PPTs t/a Fundamentals of Corporate Finance 3e Ross, Thompson, Christensen, Westerfield and JordanSlides prepared by Sue Wright
11-4
Chapter Objectives
• Calculate the expected return and risk (standard deviation) of both a single asset and a portfolio.
• Distinguish between systematic and non-systematic risk.• Explain the principle of diversification.• Explain the capital asset pricing model (CAPM).• Distinguish between the security market line (SML) and the
capital market line (CML).
Copyright 2004 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd PPTs t/a Fundamentals of Corporate Finance 3e Ross, Thompson, Christensen, Westerfield and JordanSlides prepared by Sue Wright
11-5
Expected Return and Variance
• Expected return—the weighted average of the distribution of possible returns in the future.
• Variance of returns—a measure of the dispersion of the distribution of possible returns.
• Rational investors like return and dislike risk.
Copyright 2004 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd PPTs t/a Fundamentals of Corporate Finance 3e Ross, Thompson, Christensen, Westerfield and JordanSlides prepared by Sue Wright
11-6
Example—Calculating Expected Return
15%
5% 0.25 15% 0.50 35% 0.25
return Expected
Copyright 2004 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd PPTs t/a Fundamentals of Corporate Finance 3e Ross, Thompson, Christensen, Westerfield and JordanSlides prepared by Sue Wright
11-7
Example—Calculating Variance
14.14%or 0.1414
0.02
Copyright 2004 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd PPTs t/a Fundamentals of Corporate Finance 3e Ross, Thompson, Christensen, Westerfield and JordanSlides prepared by Sue Wright
11-8
Example—Expected Return and Variance
13%0.130.250.600.050.40
6%0.060.100.600.300.40
RE
RE
B
A
Expected Returns:
Copyright 2004 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd PPTs t/a Fundamentals of Corporate Finance 3e Ross, Thompson, Christensen, Westerfield and JordanSlides prepared by Sue Wright
11-9
Example—Expected Return and Variance
0.0216
0.13 0.25 0.60 0.13 0.05 0.40 Var
0.0384
0.06 0.10 0.60 0.06 0.30 0.40 Var
22
22
B
A
R
R
14.7%0.1470.0216
19.6%0.1960.0384
Rσ
Rσ
B
A
Variances:
Standard deviations:
Copyright 2004 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd PPTs t/a Fundamentals of Corporate Finance 3e Ross, Thompson, Christensen, Westerfield and JordanSlides prepared by Sue Wright
11-10
Portfolios
• A portfolio is a collection of assets.
• An asset’s risk and return is important in how it affects the risk and return of the portfolio.
• The risk–return trade-off for a portfolio is measured by the portfolio’s expected return and standard deviation, just as with individual assets.
Copyright 2004 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd PPTs t/a Fundamentals of Corporate Finance 3e Ross, Thompson, Christensen, Westerfield and JordanSlides prepared by Sue Wright
11-11
Portfolio Expected Returns
• The expected return of a portfolio is the weighted average of the expected returns for each asset in the portfolio.
m
E(Rp) = ∑ wjE (Rj) j =1
• You can also find the expected return by finding the portfolio return in each possible state and computing the expected value as we did with individual securities.
Copyright 2004 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd PPTs t/a Fundamentals of Corporate Finance 3e Ross, Thompson, Christensen, Westerfield and JordanSlides prepared by Sue Wright
11-12
Example—Portfolio Return and Variance
Assume 50 per cent of portfolio in asset A and 50 per cent in asset B.
9.5%or0.095
0.0750.600.1250.40
RE p
Copyright 2004 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd PPTs t/a Fundamentals of Corporate Finance 3e Ross, Thompson, Christensen, Westerfield and JordanSlides prepared by Sue Wright
11-13
Example—Portfolio Return and Variance
• Var(Rp) (0.50 x Var(RA)) + (0.50 x Var(RB)).
• By combining assets in a portfolio, the risks faced by the investor can significantly change.
2.45% or 0.0245
0.0006
0.0006
0.095 0.075 0.60 0.095 0.125 0.40 Var 22
p
p
R
R
Copyright 2004 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd PPTs t/a Fundamentals of Corporate Finance 3e Ross, Thompson, Christensen, Westerfield and JordanSlides prepared by Sue Wright
11-14
Asset A returns
0.05
0.04
0.03
0.02
0.01
0
-
0.01
-
0.02
-
0.03
-
0.04
-
0.05
0.05
0.04
0.03
0.02
0.01
0
-
0.01
-
0.02
-
0.03
Asset B returns
0.04
0.03
0.02
0.01
0
-0.01
-0.02
-0.03
Portfolio returns:50% A and 50% B
The Effect of Diversification on Portfolio Variance
Copyright 2004 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd PPTs t/a Fundamentals of Corporate Finance 3e Ross, Thompson, Christensen, Westerfield and JordanSlides prepared by Sue Wright
11-15
Announcements, Surprises and Expected Returns
• Key Issues– What are the components of the total return?– What are the different types of risk?
• Expected and Unexpected Returns– Total return (R) = expected return (E(R))+ unexpected
return (U)
• Announcements and News– Announcement = expected part + surprise– It is the surprise component that affects a stock’s price and,
therefore, its return.
Copyright 2004 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd PPTs t/a Fundamentals of Corporate Finance 3e Ross, Thompson, Christensen, Westerfield and JordanSlides prepared by Sue Wright
11-16
Risk
• Systematic risk: that component of total risk which is due to economy-wide factors.
• Non-systematic risk: that component of total risk which is unique to an asset or firm.
portion systematic-nonportion systematic
return Unexpectedreturn Expectedreturn Total
RE
URER
Copyright 2004 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd PPTs t/a Fundamentals of Corporate Finance 3e Ross, Thompson, Christensen, Westerfield and JordanSlides prepared by Sue Wright
11-17
Standard Deviations of Monthly Portfolio Returns
Copyright 2004 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd PPTs t/a Fundamentals of Corporate Finance 3e Ross, Thompson, Christensen, Westerfield and JordanSlides prepared by Sue Wright
11-18
Diversification
• The process of spreading investments across different assets, industries and countries to reduce risk.
• Total risk = systematic risk + non-systematic risk
• Non-systematic risk can be eliminated by diversification; systematic risk affects all assets and cannot be diversified away.
Copyright 2004 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd PPTs t/a Fundamentals of Corporate Finance 3e Ross, Thompson, Christensen, Westerfield and JordanSlides prepared by Sue Wright
11-19
The Principle of Diversification
• Diversification can substantially reduce the variability of returns without an equivalent reduction in expected returns.
• This reduction in risk arises because worse than expected returns from one asset are offset by better than expected returns from another.
• However, there is a minimum level of risk that cannot be diversified away and that is the systematic portion.
Copyright 2004 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd PPTs t/a Fundamentals of Corporate Finance 3e Ross, Thompson, Christensen, Westerfield and JordanSlides prepared by Sue Wright
11-20
Portfolio Diversification
Copyright 2004 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd PPTs t/a Fundamentals of Corporate Finance 3e Ross, Thompson, Christensen, Westerfield and JordanSlides prepared by Sue Wright
11-21
Systematic Risk
• The systematic risk principle states that the expected return on a risky asset depends only on the asset’s systematic risk.
• The amount of systematic risk in an asset relative to an average risky asset is measured by the beta coefficient.
Std Deviation Beta
Security A 30% 0.60
Security B 10% 1.20
• Security A has greater total risk but less systematic risk (more non-systematic risk) than Security B.
Copyright 2004 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd PPTs t/a Fundamentals of Corporate Finance 3e Ross, Thompson, Christensen, Westerfield and JordanSlides prepared by Sue Wright
11-22
Measuring Systemic Risk
• What does beta tell us?
- A beta of 1 implies the asset has the same systematic risk as the overall market.
- A beta < 1 implies the asset has less systematic risk than the overall market.
- A beta > 1 implies the asset has more systematic risk than the overall market.
Copyright 2004 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd PPTs t/a Fundamentals of Corporate Finance 3e Ross, Thompson, Christensen, Westerfield and JordanSlides prepared by Sue Wright
11-23
Beta Coefficients for Selected Companies
Copyright 2004 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd PPTs t/a Fundamentals of Corporate Finance 3e Ross, Thompson, Christensen, Westerfield and JordanSlides prepared by Sue Wright
11-24
Example—Portfolio Beta Calculations
Amount PortfolioShare Invested Weights Beta
(1) (2) (3) (4) (3) (4)
ABC Company $6 000 50% 0.90 0.450
LMN Company 4 000 33% 1.10 0.367
XYZ Company 2 000 17% 1.30 0.217
Portfolio $12 000 100% 1.034
Copyright 2004 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd PPTs t/a Fundamentals of Corporate Finance 3e Ross, Thompson, Christensen, Westerfield and JordanSlides prepared by Sue Wright
11-25
Example—Portfolio Expected Returns and Betas
• Assume you wish to hold a portfolio consisting of asset A and
a riskless asset. Given the following information, calculate
portfolio expected returns and portfolio betas, letting the
proportion of funds invested in asset A range from 0 to 125
per cent.• Asset A has a beta of 1.2 and an expected return of 18 per
cent.• The risk-free rate is 7 per cent.• Asset A weights: 0 per cent, 25 per cent, 50 per cent, 75 per
cent, 100 per cent and 125 per cent.
Copyright 2004 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd PPTs t/a Fundamentals of Corporate Finance 3e Ross, Thompson, Christensen, Westerfield and JordanSlides prepared by Sue Wright
11-26
Example—Portfolio Expected Returns and Betas
Proportion Proportion Portfolio Invested in Invested in Expected Portfolio Asset A (%) Risk-free Asset (%) Return (%) Beta
0 100 7.00 0.00
25 75 9.75 0.30
50 50 12.50 0.60
75 25 15.25 0.90
100 0 18.00 1.20
125 –25 20.75 1.50
Copyright 2004 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd PPTs t/a Fundamentals of Corporate Finance 3e Ross, Thompson, Christensen, Westerfield and JordanSlides prepared by Sue Wright
11-27
Return, Risk and Equilibrium
• Key issues:– What is the relationship between risk and return?– What does security market equilibrium look like?
• The ratio of the risk premium to beta is the same for every asset. In other words, the reward-to-risk ratio for the market is constant and equal to:
i
fi RRE
ratiok Reward/ris
Copyright 2004 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd PPTs t/a Fundamentals of Corporate Finance 3e Ross, Thompson, Christensen, Westerfield and JordanSlides prepared by Sue Wright
11-28
Example—Asset Pricing• Asset A has an expected return of 12 per cent and a beta of 1.40.
Asset B has an expected return of 8 per cent and a beta of 0.80. Are these two assets valued correctly relative to each other if the risk-free rate is 5 per cent?
• Asset B offers insufficient return for its level of risk, relative to A. B’s price is too high; therefore, it is overvalued (or A is undervalued).
0.0375 0.80
0.05 0.08 :B
0.05 1.40
0.05 0.12 :A
Copyright 2004 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd PPTs t/a Fundamentals of Corporate Finance 3e Ross, Thompson, Christensen, Westerfield and JordanSlides prepared by Sue Wright
11-29
Security Market Line
• The security market line (SML) is the representation of market equilibrium.
• The slope of the SML is the reward-to-risk ratio: (E(RM) – Rf)/ßM
• But since the beta for the market is ALWAYS equal to one, the slope can be rewritten.
• Slope = E(RM) – Rf = market risk premium
Copyright 2004 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd PPTs t/a Fundamentals of Corporate Finance 3e Ross, Thompson, Christensen, Westerfield and JordanSlides prepared by Sue Wright
11-30
Security Market Line (SML)Asset expectedreturn (E (Ri))
Asset
beta (i)
= E (RM) – Rf
E (RM)
Rf
M = 1.0
Copyright 2004 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd PPTs t/a Fundamentals of Corporate Finance 3e Ross, Thompson, Christensen, Westerfield and JordanSlides prepared by Sue Wright
11-31
The Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM)
• An equilibrium model of the relationship between risk and return.
• What determines an asset’s expected return?– The risk-free rate—the pure time value of money.– The market risk premium—the reward for bearing
systematic risk.– The beta coefficient—a measure of the amount of
systematic risk present in a particular asset.
ifMfi RRERRE CAPM
Copyright 2004 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd PPTs t/a Fundamentals of Corporate Finance 3e Ross, Thompson, Christensen, Westerfield and JordanSlides prepared by Sue Wright
11-32
Calculation of Systematic Risk
MMii / R ,R ~~Cov
Where:Cov = covariance
i = random distribution of return for asset i
M = random distribution of return for the market
M = standard deviation of market return
R~
R~
Copyright 2004 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd PPTs t/a Fundamentals of Corporate Finance 3e Ross, Thompson, Christensen, Westerfield and JordanSlides prepared by Sue Wright
11-33
Covariance and Correlation
• The covariance term measures how returns change together—measured in absolute terms.
• The correlation coefficient measures how returns change together—measured in relative terms.
• Correlation coefficient ranges between –1.0 and +1.0.
• Where i = standard deviation of the return on asset i.
MiMiiM /R ,R σσ~~
Covρ
Copyright 2004 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd PPTs t/a Fundamentals of Corporate Finance 3e Ross, Thompson, Christensen, Westerfield and JordanSlides prepared by Sue Wright
11-34
Security Market Line versus Capital Market Line
ifMfi
pMfMfp
βRRERRE
RRERRE
SML
/ CML
* SML explains the expected return for all assets.
* CML explains the expected return for efficient portfolios.
Copyright 2004 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd PPTs t/a Fundamentals of Corporate Finance 3e Ross, Thompson, Christensen, Westerfield and JordanSlides prepared by Sue Wright
11-35
Risk of a Portfolio
Variance of a two-asset portfolio is calculated as:
weighted variance of the expected return for
each asset in the portfolio
+
twice the weighted covariance of the expected
return on the first asset with the expected
return on the second
Copyright 2004 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd PPTs t/a Fundamentals of Corporate Finance 3e Ross, Thompson, Christensen, Westerfield and JordanSlides prepared by Sue Wright
11-36
Example—Risk of a Portfolio
Weighting Std Deviation
Asset A 0.3 0.26
Asset B 0.7 0.13
The covariance of the expected returns between A and B is 0.017.
0.1466 dev Std
0.0215
0.00714 0.008281 0.006084
0.0170.70.32 0.130.7 0.260.3 Variance 22
Copyright 2004 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd PPTs t/a Fundamentals of Corporate Finance 3e Ross, Thompson, Christensen, Westerfield and JordanSlides prepared by Sue Wright
11-37
Problems with CAPM
• Difficulties in estimating beta
- thin trading
- non-constant beta• Using CAPM
- adding explanatory variables
- measure of market return